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Three No. 1 seeds advance, but Stanford, UConn remain favorites

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12:15 AM ET

  • Mechelle Voepel

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      Mechelle Voepel covers the WNBA, women’s college basketball, and other college sports for espnW. Voepel began covering women’s basketball in 1984, and has been with ESPN since 1996.

  • Charlie Creme

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      Charlie Creme projects the women’s NCAA tournament bracket for ESPN.com.

The women’s Final Four field, which includes three No. 1 seeds, runs the gamut of experience. The UConn Huskies are looking for their 12th NCAA championship, while their semifinal opponent, the Arizona Wildcats, are in the Final Four for the first time.

On the other side of the bracket, coach Dawn Staley guided the South Carolina Gamecocks to the Final Four for the third time in the last six tournaments, and the Gamecocks’ defense was suffocating in its Elite Eight victory.

South Carolina will take on the Stanford Cardinal, who are making their 14th Final Four appearance and give the Pac-12 two teams in the national semifinals. The No. 1 overall seed, Stanford battled back to beat Louisville after facing its largest deficit of the season Tuesday. The Cardinal are deep, and their many scoring options are a big part of how they have gotten this far.

Here’s a look at Friday’s matchups in the Alamodome — South Carolina and Stanford tip at 6 p.m. ET (ESPN/ESPN App), followed by Arizona-UConn at 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ESPN App) — and what we think of the updated ESPN Basketball Power Index, which says UConn is the favorite.

How much does it matter that UConn has more Final Four experience than any women’s program in the country, while Arizona is making its first appearance in the national semifinals?

Creme: Even though Christyn Williams and Olivia Nelson-Ododa are the only Huskies with any true Final Four experience, I think it does matter that the UConn program has been many times before and Arizona is new to the event. And that’s because it is an event. It’s the biggest few days any of these players have experienced in their basketball lives up to this point and it’s not the same as playing a game, no matter how big, in the regular season.

The UConn coaches know exactly how to manage their players through the differences in routine and the magnitude of the moment. Everything Adia Barnes and her staff have done at Arizona is nothing short of spectacular, but she and her assistants are as new to this as the Wildcat players. Experience is important and not just on the court. All the additional media obligations are one of the extras that players often note as the biggest adjustment of going to a Final Four. Given their success over the years, the Huskies have the solution to minimizing the impact that can have on the players, but that has come from experience, something no one at Arizona has.

However, a couple of things do play in the Wildcats’ favor. This Final Four is different. They won’t have to travel there, get used to a new hotel or figure out how to keep players busy during the down time. The routine in San Antonio will largely be the same as they have experienced for the past two weeks, even if the pressure of the games ratchets up a few notches. There also won’t be as much media at this Final Four, and with all of it being done via Zoom, the players aren’t shuffled around as much.

Barnes might also be able to draw on the advice of some other Pac-12 coaches with recent trips to the Final Four. Cal (2013), Oregon State (2016), Washington (2016) and Oregon (2019) have all helped showcase how much the conference has grown beyond Stanford in the last decade. Arizona is the latest program to ride that wave. The league has risen in national prominence and these Final Fours are evidence of that. It should be noted that each of those Pac-12 teams was also making their first Final Four trip, and all four lost in the semifinals.

Voepel: It matters a ton, for all the reasons Charlie said. This is a meeting of two very different generations of coaches who are both successful. No one has accomplished more than Geno Auriemma’s 11 NCAA titles. It’s hard to imagine we’ll ever see another program replicate this, and for the growth of the sport, it’s probably best if that’s the case.

But fresh faces in the Final Four are good, too, and we are getting that with Barnes. She’s the second former WNBA player to lead a team to the Final Four — South Carolina’s Dawn Staley was the first — and she can talk to players with first-hand experience about what’s needed to be a pro.

Barnes has been part of both of Arizona’s biggest highlights as a program: What she’s doing now as a head coach, and what she did as a player in leading the Wildcats to the 1998 Sweet 16. (She faced UConn back then, too, in the regional semifinal.) Her long history with the program and the Tucson community are big positives in terms of engaging fan support, as is winning. This Final Four trip will help Barnes in recruiting as she will work to continue to stay near the top of a very competitive Pac-12. But when it comes down to matching up with UConn right now, that’s a really tall order.

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After defeating Indiana 66-53, Arizona players and coaches storm the court together in jubilation.

Arizona star guard Aari McDonald has scored 30-plus points in each of her last two games. How will her style of play test UConn, and how will the Huskies look to defend her?

Creme: McDonald’s speed differentiates her from any other player in the game. Announcers, opposing coaches and probably every scouting report in the Pac-12 says make McDonald, a lefty, go to her right. Easier said than done. Staying in front of her is so difficult. The strategy usually is to give her some room to accommodate for that speed and go under any ball screens Arizona will use to get her space to operate.

The problem in the last two games is that McDonald has used that extra room to hit 3-pointers at a blistering rate. In the Wildcats’ two wins in the regionals, against Texas A&M and Indiana, McDonald made 11-of-18 from 3-point range after being a 30% shooter for the season. If she stays that hot there really isn’t a defense for her.

UConn has one of the best team defenses in the sport. Geno Auriemma isn’t afraid to play zone, which should impede McDonald’s driving angles. In 6-foot-5 Olivia Nelson-Ododa he also has a shot blocker to hinder McDonald’s ability to finish at the rim, something at which she normally excels. Williams is also a defender who can be a little physical with McDonald. She was effective at slowing down Iowa’s Caitlin Clark in the regional semifinals, although McDonald’s speed is at a different level.

Voepel: The thing we see again and again with UConn is that the Huskies relish defensive challenges. They take great pride in making a great scorer have to work harder against them than she would against any other team.

As Charlie said, McDonald’s speed is a major factor that you are not going to see very often. But because UConn has such a versatile defense, the Huskies can find ways to, if not neutralize it, at least keep it from hurting them as much as it hurts other teams.

That said, McDonald has looked as confident these past two games as she has all season, and that’s something she’s going to bring with her into Friday’s matchup. After all, she has faced some very good defenses already here in San Antonio with Texas A&M and Indiana, plus the regular-season matchups with Stanford.

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Paige Bueckers goes off for 28 points in the Elite Eight to help the No. 1-seeded Huskies outlast No. 2 Baylor 69-67.

Youth and a lack of postseason experience haven’t troubled Paige Bueckers. Should we expect her to handle the sport’s biggest stage any differently?

Creme: I would expect nerves to have some impact on Bueckers. I also expect they won’t last long. She has that experienced coaching staff to guide through the preparation and initial moments. That guidance should help Bueckers more quickly reach the point where Friday night is just another game. Once that first shot goes in, any nerves that Bueckers has should melt away.

Part of Bueckers’ quick adjustment comes from the kind of player she has been her entire freshman season. She seems to have an atypical instinct to let the game come to her, while knowing exactly when she should step on the gas and then tap the brake again. That’s why Bueckers rarely takes a bad shot and her field goal percentage is 52.8 percent, the second-best among guards in the country.

Bueckers is just 14 points away from tying Breanna Stewart for the most points by a UConn freshman in the NCAA tournament. Bueckers had 13 in the first half against Baylor on her way to 28 in the Elite Eight. She has a chance to do in five games what Stewart did in six games in 2013.

Voepel: At this point, it would be far more surprising to see Bueckers get rattled, because we just haven’t witnessed it. She has stayed poised and composed even in tense situations, and a lot of credit for that just has to go to her personality. It’s hard to come to college basketball and be this ready from the first time you step on court, but she has been.

But the other part of the credit goes to both her teammates and Auriemma. With a different group of upperclassmen, Bueckers might have gotten the cold shoulder for all the attention she has received. But the Huskies juniors are savvy enough to know that is out of her control, and they also understand how much she is contributing to this team.

And Auriemma has said several times he has changed some things about his coaching style with this team of seven freshmen. He lets Bueckers have a little fun, and he has encouraged her without quite as much of the traditional Auriemma sarcasm. All of this has helped Bueckers have one of the smoothest freshman seasons we’ve seen, especially for someone who has so much weight on her regarding the team’s success.

Texas notched the first scoreless quarter in women’s NCAA tournament history since quarters were implemented in 2016. We’ve written plenty about South Carolina’s defense, but has it hit another level heading into the semifinals?

Creme: If the Gamecocks are going to win a national championship it will come on the back of their defense. It’s South Carolina’s calling card. In two of their four games on the way to the season’s final weekend, the Gamecocks didn’t even score 65 points. That is the point: They don’t have to. Three of those four opponents in the tournament have scored 53 or fewer points. South Carolina’s defense was very good during the regular season. Now it’s exceptional.

But doing something as extreme as holding another team scoreless over a 10-minute stretch requires some help. Bad offense by Texas contributed to the record-setting quarter. The Longhorns have had trouble with offensive consistency all season long. They were the good version in Sunday’s upset of Maryland, executing in nearly every key moment. The offense that scored fewer than 60 points five times this season resurfaced on Tuesday. Playing against South Carolina doesn’t help any team searching for offense.

Most analysis prior to the game focused on the individual battle in the middle between South Carolina’s Aliyah Boston and Texas’ Charli Collier. The Longhorns need Collier’s scoring. They needed her to outduel Boston. She couldn’t. Boston, who is the anchor of South Carolina’s outstanding defense, pushed Collier around most of the game, holding her to four points on 2-of-10 shooting. Collier also never went to the free throw line. If Staley was hoping for a perfect defensive performance, Boston might have delivered.

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One-seed South Carolina cruises past 6-seed Texas 62-34 to makes its third Final Four appearance, all of which came under Dawn Staley.

Voepel: Staley is really pleased with how her team has played so far. The sophomores, of course, didn’t get NCAA tournament experience last year, but they have played like veterans in this tournament. It was a process all season to get the defense to where it is now, but the Gamecocks have shown a lot of maturity during that journey.

“They are all able to put things to the side, focus on the task at hand,” Staley said. “I am just incredibly proud of them. I’m glad I’m part of their village.

“They are incredibly strong. I do think we are mentally tough. I questioned that from time to time.”

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0:33

Anna Wilson’s first bucket of the game comes at the right time as she extends Stanford’s lead to the delight of her brother, Russell.

Stanford’s rally from a 12-point halftime deficit is its largest comeback of the last four seasons. What did that slow first half expose about the No. 1 overall seed? And what do the Cardinal learn from it to prepare for South Carolina?

Creme: Stanford just wasn’t Stanford for 2½ quarters. The Cardinal uncharacteristically seemed to lack focus and didn’t have the kind of intensity that an Elite Eight game against a No. 2 seed should warrant. The missed layups, poorly run sets and botched assignments on defense were perplexing.

Then down 45-33 with 5:29 left in the third quarter, Haley Jones scored on a putback off a Lexie Hull miss and Stanford flipped a switch. The Cardinal outscored Louisville 45-17 over the final 15½ minutes. It took awhile, but the real Stanford showed up.

Ashten Prechtel, who didn’t even play a full minute in the first half, made all six of her shots in the second half, including three 3-pointers for 16 points. Kiana Williams, who looked tight in the first half and made just 1 of 11 shots, was 5-of-9 in the second half. Her shooting touch returned and so did that smile. She now gets to finish her career in the Final Four in her hometown.

In one game we saw the worst of Stanford and the best. The second half was a microcosm of how devastating the Cardinal can be on both ends of the floor. The outcome was about Stanford finding its offense rhythm, but the defense contributed. too. Louisville went from open looks and nearly 52% shooting in the first half to 30% after halftime. If Stanford plays 40 minutes at that second-half level, Tara VanDerveer might finally get that third national title.

Voepel: We’ve been talking about Stanford’s many weapons, and Tuesday we saw just how important that was. What also showed was that the Cardinal can take a punch and not lose their composure, because Louiville gave them a scare, and it didn’t stop Stanford.

For the most part, Stanford has cruised past all its opponents since the Cardinal’s last close game, which was Feb. 15 against Oregon, a 63-61 victory. Tuesday, they could have gotten rattled after such a tough first half, but they stayed the course and turned back into the team we’ve seen for most of the season.

We’ve talked about how good South Carolina’s defense is, but Stanford is very good on that end of the court, too.

The updated BPI says UConn is a 44% favorite to win the title, with Stanford (30%), South Carolina (19%) and Arizona (7%) trailing the Huskies. Which team is your favorite after 60 games?

Voepel: I’m staying with Stanford. Yes, the Cardinal’s first half no doubt frightened their fans, who are so hopeful that this is finally the year for them to win the championship again after such a long wait. But maybe Tuesday’s game was their shaky one, and they won’t have that happen again. They can’t afford to against the Gamecocks.

I easily can see, though, why the numbers are going for UConn, which had the toughest Elite Eight opponent in Baylor, and survived that. The Huskies also have what appears to be a pretty big advantage in their semifinal against Arizona, while Stanford and South Carolina should be a real battle.

A lot is lining up for UConn to win its 12th championship. And we might see a repeat of the 2010 NCAA final that was right here in the Alamodome matching Stanford and UConn. Hopefully we won’t see a game that is as bad as that one was (UConn won 53-47). But I just think there has been some Stanford mojo all this season that could carry the Cardinal through.

Creme: Like Mechelle, I picked Stanford at the start of the tournament. I would be lying if that first half by the Cardinal didn’t concern me. That can’t happen again if the Cardinal are going to win the title. While I don’t think it will repeat itself, I am now leaning toward UConn to win its 12th championship.

While the Huskies might have had the toughest draw in the Elite Eight, they now have the benefit of playing a No. 3 seed in the national semifinals while the other two No. 1 seeds have to battle in the other game. Those same BPI numbers that favor UConn also have Arizona as the least likely team to win the title. The Wildcats are not an easy out, but mathematically speaking, should the Huskies get to Sunday night, it should be with a little more gas in the tank than what either Stanford or South Carolina will have.

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Which teams will join UConn and Arizona in the 2021 Women’s Final Four?

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11:30 PM ET

  • Mechelle Voepel

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      Mechelle Voepel covers the WNBA, women’s college basketball, and other college sports for espnW. Voepel began covering women’s basketball in 1984, and has been with ESPN since 1996.

  • Charlie Creme

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      Charlie Creme projects the women’s NCAA tournament bracket for ESPN.com.

UConn is headed to a 13th consecutive Women’s Final Four. Arizona is headed to its first. Half of the 2021 Final Four field of the NCAA women’s basketball tournament is set after both teams won Monday in San Antonio.

The Huskies scored 19 unanswered points to rally from a 10-point deficit and then held off Baylor 69-67, with a controversial non-call on the Lady Bears’ final possession. Arizona beat Indiana 66-53 in the nightcap behind 33 points from star senior guard Aari McDonald.

The national semifinals will be played Friday at the Alamodome. But first, No. 1 overall seed Stanford faces second-seeded Louisville and No. 1 seed South Carolina plays sixth-seeded Texas, the lowest remaining seed in the field, in Tuesday’s Elite Eight games.

We look at what is expected to be a superstar frontcourt matchup, how Baylor might have aided the Longhorns in preparing for the Gamecocks, how Stanford’s depth should challenge Louisville and how freshmen Cameron Brink and Hailey Van Lith could be X factors. And, of course, we can’t stop talking about UConn-Baylor.

Follow this link for Tuesday’s NCAA tournament tip times, and visit here to check your Women’s Tournament Challenge bracket.

DiDi Richards’ injury. UConn’s 19-0 run. A controversial non-call on Baylor’s final possession. How good was Monday’s UConn-Baylor matchup, what stood out and what was the difference?

Creme: The simple answer is this game was as good as basketball gets. From a first quarter that had me out of my seat more than I was in it to a second half that was pure intensity, we were all treated to the game of the year. If ESPN Classic still existed, the game would already be on its third airing.

Richards’ hamstring injury might be the only downside. To have a senior leader, especially one who has been through so much, go down like that is heartbreaking, no matter what your rooting interest. That fact that it seemed to trigger UConn’s game-changing 19-0 run illustrated how important Richards is to this Baylor team and just how evenly matched these teams were.

Credit UConn for seizing an opportunity, but it leaves Baylor wondering what if. Let’s also credit Baylor for not wilting. That Huskies’ run erased a 10-point deficit and gave them a nine-point lead with seven minutes left. The Lady Bears made their comeback in what was a game of runs, giving themselves a chance in the final seconds.

The non-call at the end of the game on DiJonai Carrington’s attempt at a game winner will get plenty of attention over the next few days, but let’s hope it doesn’t diminish what a tremendous game this was. In an extremely physical 40 minutes, Carrington probably was fouled. That impacts the way the game concluded, even if no one can possibly know if it would have changed the outcome.

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Aaliyah Edwards gets a huge block on DiJonai Carrington to help UConn seal the win vs. Baylor and advance to the Final Four.

Some people might call that officiating decision the difference. Certainly, Richards’ injury was impactful. But Christyn Williams, despite missing two important free throws that precluded the non-call on Carrington, deserves a mention. She had 14 of her 21 points in the second half. When Paige Bueckers went cold with five straight misses in the fourth quarter, it was Williams scoring nine of UConn’s final 16 points. The Huskies don’t win without her.

Voepel: Carrington was fouled; there’s no doubt about that. But the Lady Bears will also rue the seven free throws they missed, because in a game this close, every point mattered. Baylor went 13-of-20 from the line, and that was costly.

As Charlie said, Baylor’s glue player was Richards — she is a premier defender and the Lady Bears are so used to having her on the court. It was a big void, and the entire game changed when she left.

In the end, coach Kim Mulkey said the final play could have gone to Carrington or NaLyssa Smith, who finished with 14 points and 13 rebounds. Carrington, who was the spark plug for Baylor all game, went for the shot. And we know what happened then.

“To have to win this game to go to the Final Four and to have to beat a team like that, you know, that’s clearly seeded way lower than they belong, it just added to the intensity of it and the difficulty of it and everything,” UConn coach Geno Auriemma said. “This was harder than winning some of the national championship games that we’ve won, without question. This game was tougher than a handful of national championship games or any Final Four game that you want to mention.”

How big was Aari McDonald in leading Arizona to win the Mercado Regional?

Creme: While we could pick at the details of UConn-Baylor for a week, Arizona is proving that basketball doesn’t have to be that complicated: Make shots and stop the other team from doing so. That is what got the Wildcats to their first Final Four, with Aari McDonald as the individual embodiment of that simple approach.

For the second game in a row, Arizona’s All-American guard has been blistering from 3-point range and made life miserable for opposing guards on defense. McDonald made 5 of 6 3-pointers and scored 33 on Monday after making 6 of 12 from long range with 31 points against Texas A&M in the Sweet 16. This from a player who was a 30% 3-point shooter in the 23 games before the regionals.

Meanwhile, Indiana guards Ali Patberg and Nicole Hillary-Cardano were only a combined 4-of-17 from the field with McDonald harassing them. McDonald, along with her coach, Adia Barnes, had the goal of rebuilding the Arizona program. The Wildcats had six wins the season before McDonald’s arrival. They are now in the Final Four. Mission accomplished.

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Aari McDonald pours in a game-high 33 points as Arizona defeats Indiana to advance to the first Women’s Final Four in program history.

Voepel: We’ll discuss the Arizona-UConn Final Four matchup much more, but an initial thought is that the Wildcats go into this game feeling as confident as they have all season. That might seem obvious, since they’re in the Final Four for the first time. But they really look like they’re feeling no pressure and totally belong here.

“My teammates, they’re finally believing, they’re having that confidence,” McDonald said. “I knew they could. They keep stepping up, they keep hitting big shots when we need them. I love that.

“We need this confidence momentum going into UConn. We already know what they’re about: powerhouse, so well-coached, skillful players. But, hey, I’ve got my chances with my teammates. Ride or die.”

How much will the battle inside between 6-foot-5 post players Aliyah Boston, a national player of the year finalist, and Charli Collier, the projected No. 1 WNBA draft pick, decide Tuesday’s South Carolina-Texas regional final (7 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN App)?

Creme: This matchup is pivotal, especially for Texas. South Carolina is not as good when Boston isn’t as involved, but the Gamecocks can win without her playing a lead offensive role. The Sweet 16 win over Georgia Tech in which Boston scored nine points is the most recent, but it’s hardly the only example.

But the Longhorns need Collier. They need her to rebound. They need her to protect the rim. Most importantly, they need her to be a true threat to score in the low post. Texas can build an offense around that. If Collier isn’t a presence, it puts too much pressure on guards Celeste Taylor and Joanne Allen-Taylor to create their own shot. That’s asking way too much against South Carolina’s defense. Texas can’t win that way.

That is where Boston might be the biggest key for South Carolina. Even if she doesn’t score a point, her defense against Collier could completely turn the game. Boston might have been the best post defender in the country since the day she arrived in Columbia. She’s physical enough to move Collier away from the basket and tall enough to disrupt any shots Collier gets. Collier doesn’t see that too often. Whichever center wins the individual battle might decide the game.

Voepel: It’s great to see such a marquee matchup with two players we expect will be WNBA stars someday. Both are expected to play pivotal roles for their teams in the Elite Eight. South Carolina coach Dawn Staley said Boston relishes challenges, particularly against opponents who are the same height.

“Aliyah has to keep doing what she does: Keep Collier in front of her, make her make tough shots over her, sprint the floor, get deep post-ups,” Staley said. “At this stage in the game, you can’t do anything different than what you’ve already done. If Aliyah’s able to just do what she’s done for us all season long, we’ve ended up winning those battles.

“But certainly, she’s got to win that battle against Collier.”

Texas coach Vic Schaefer worked with Collier all season on improving her defense. He knows this is a key test for her, too.

“Those are two of the premier players in the country, regardless of position,” Schaefer said. “I’m glad I’ve got Charli on my team. We’ll give her some good advice on trying to deal with Aliyah, because she’s obviously very special and she’s hard to deal with.”

Texas went 0-3 against Baylor this season — two regular-season meetings and one in the Big 12 tournament. How might those games help prepare the Longhorns to face South Carolina?

Creme: Playing against that length and commitment to defense that characterize both Baylor and South Carolina can’t hurt as a means of preparation for the Longhorns. But NCAA tournament games tend to take on a life of their own. Texas’ win over Maryland was the perfect example of that. The kind of intensity with which Texas played is difficult to duplicate in a regular-season game. The Longhorns won that game because of a great defensive game plan and the kind of energy needed to execute it.

Perhaps Schaefer can steal some things from those games against Baylor for his scouting report: How to defend the post with Baylor’s Queen Egbo as the substitute for Boston, or how to effectively rebound defensively. Those details will be a key to Texas’ chances, and Schaefer is the type of coach who will draw from anything he can to gain an edge.

What will help the Longhorns even more than those three games against Baylor is Schaefer’s experience at Mississippi State in the SEC, playing against South Carolina and Dawn Staley two or three times a season in the previous eight years. He coached against this core group of players twice last season. I imagine that experience will compose as much of the game plan as anything else.

Voepel: Baylor and South Carolina aren’t exact duplicates, but it’s hard to imagine a better opponent for Texas to have played in preparation for the Gamecocks. Coming into the NCAA tournament, Baylor had the fewest made 3-pointers among the top eight seeds, and South Carolina had the second fewest. While the Gamecocks had a somewhat surprising eight treys in their Sweet 16 win over Georgia Tech, South Carolina is known for getting the ball inside to post players and having its guards take it to the rim. Very much like Baylor. The Longhorns’ three losses to Baylor have all come since Feb. 14, so what went wrong and what worked in those games should be pretty fresh in their minds.

“If you play Baylor three times and you don’t learn something, shame on you,” said Schaefer, who pointed specifically to a loss in Waco on Feb. 14. “We didn’t play well that day; we couldn’t score. But I think we walked out of that game knowing we defended a little bit. We held them to 60 — that’s always our number. But that’s where I think our growth really started. And we’ve built off of playing them the next two times.”

Nine Stanford players average double-digit minutes. Six average at least 7.3 PPG. How will Louisville manage that depth on Tuesday (9 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN App)?

Voepel: It’s not going to be easy; Stanford doesn’t just have depth — it is high-quality depth and it wore down everyone in the Pac-12. The Cardinal can come at you like a swarm of hornets: a Haley Jones jump shot here, a Kiana Williams or Hannah Jump 3-pointer there, a Fran Belibi breakaway layup, a Cameron Brink deep-seal post move, a Lexie Hull drive to the rim — we could keep going, but you get the idea.

Probably nobody enjoys scheming defensively more than Louisville’s Jeff Walz, the architect of the famed takedown of No. 1 seed and defending champ Baylor in the 2013 NCAA tournament. So he will be up for the challenge with a game plan, but executing against this much Stanford talent is a big task for Louisville.

Creme: Mechelle hit on it. This isn’t about depth as it relates to numbers. Stanford is about the versatility and different styles it can play because of its depth. Most coaches shorten their bench at this point in the season anyway. So the question becomes how Louisville defends the permutations of lineups that Tara VanDerveer has at her disposal.

How will Louisville deal with the length and athleticism of 6-4 Brink and 6-1 Belibi on the floor together? Lexie Hull, with her deep shooting range, could play the 2-guard in one version of the Cardinal lineup and power forward in another. Haley Jones’ ability to play four positions creates an entirely new set of possibilities.

Walz is great at defensive strategizing. But it’s one thing to have a scouting report. It’s another to need one thicker than the unabridged version of “War and Peace.” Stanford doesn’t allow for just a Plan A and Plan B. Walz might have to go much deeper into the alphabet.

So much attention has focused on freshman guards this season. What impact will Louisville’s Hailey Van Lith have Tuesday? And how important is freshman forward Cameron Brink to Stanford’s championship hopes?

Voepel: Coach Tara VanDerveer said she thinks it’s a little tougher for freshman guards to play a big role because of all they have to learn at that position. But the physical play — and how to handle it without getting into foul trouble — is usually a challenge for rookie post players. That has been the case with the very talented Brink. When she’s on the floor, she’s getting things done for Stanford, averaging 10.1 points and 6.7 rebounds. Foul trouble has been the problem.

“I think for Cam, the biggest adjustment is how physical the game is inside, and how aggressive the junior and senior post players are,” VanDerveer said. “I think she’s doing extremely well. For Cam, it’s just a matter of staying in the game. She’s a very intelligent player, she passes the ball well, she’s very versatile.”

Van Lith is a gritty 5-7 guard who does the dirty work, and Walz loves that. She rebounds very well for her size, and the Cardinals are going to need all the help they can get on the boards against a bigger Stanford team.

Creme: Another underrated aspect of Stanford’s depth is its ability to mix and match defensive matchups. That means it won’t be up to just one Cardinal defender to handle Dana Evans, making her job of scorer that much more difficult. That means Van Lith will need to have some impact if Louisville hopes to win.

The Cardinals got away with Evans being their only significant scorer against Oregon. They will need more than that on Tuesday. Van Lith is capable of being a bigger contributor than the eight points she produced against the Ducks. Another freshman, forward Olivia Cochran, will also play an important role inside for Louisville. If she can provide physical play against the likes of Brink and score some as well, the Cardinals’ chances go up exponentially.

Brink can do so many things, from posting up to serving as the high-post outlet at the center of the offense. If she hits her season averages, that’s enough for Stanford. But Cochran is the kind of player who could cause the foul trouble that Mechelle mentioned and disrupt those numbers. As deep as Stanford is, Brink on the bench alters the Cardinal approach and puts a little more pressure on players such as Jones, Hull and Williams to score.

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No. 1 UConn wins battle vs. Baylor

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No. 1 Connecticut extended its consecutive Final Four streak to 13 in a regional final with the tenacity of a national championship game. The Huskies stormed back from a 10-point deficit and held defensively on the final possession to defeat reigning champion and No. 2 seed Baylor, 69-67.

Baylor’s DiJonai Carrington hit four consecutive free throws and pulled the Bears within one, 68-67, with 20 seconds to play. Christyn Williams, fouled on the inbound play, missed both free throws for UConn to set up a final attempt by Baylor.

The Bears went to their hot hand in Carrington, who had 22 points off the bench, but both Olivia Nelson-Ododa and Edwards were there for UConn to stuff the shot, though it appeared to be a foul on the replay.

Paige Bueckers scored a game-high 28 points and made 3-of-7 3-point attempts. She added three rebounds and three steals, but no assists as the Bears shut them down defensively. The Huskies had only nine assists as a team and 13 turnovers, mostly from overthrowing teammates the length of the court in transition.

Aaliyah Edwards, another of UConn’s phenomenal freshmen, had seven rebounds and three blocks. Nelson-Ododa had five and the team totaled 10.

Huskies take lead on 19-0 run

The Huskies stormed back into the lead with a 19-0 run after DiDi Richards, the reigning national defensive player of the year, left the game with an apparent hamstring injury. They trailed by 10, their largest deficit of the tournament, when Richards pulled up without contact on a drive to the basket. Richards, who suffered a spinal injury and was temporarily paralyzed at the start of the season, came back in, but quickly went back to the bench and didn’t return.

It opened up room for Bueckers, who after a Baylor bucket started the charge on an assist by forward Olivia Nelson-Ododa. It was the team’s first assisted basket since the first quarter. Williams, who finished with 21 points and seven rebounds, and Bueckers each hit 3-pointers to head into the third quarter down by two. UConn tied it on Williams free throws and took the lead on a layup by Edwards a minute into the fourth.

Baylor committed costly turnovers while missing layups and free throws offensively. The Bears came within three, but missed a layup to cut it. UConn freshman Aaliyah Edwards got the block on the next shot attempt and Williams laid in a bucket in transition to go back up five with under a minute to play. It was just enough.

UConn, Baylor set title game pace

UConn jumped out to the early 16-4 lead and Baylor answered with its own 10-0 run. UConn built six-point leads twice in the first quarter and the Bears answered each time to come within two. The Huskies led, 26-24, at the break with transition points and their 50 combined points were the most in the first quarter in the entire tournament.

The pace slowed in the second quarter, but the block party heated up. They combined for six blocks in the second of 11 combined in the first half. They came from five different players, none larger than DiJonai Carrington’s on Williams two minutes into the frame.

NaLyssa Smith collected a rebound on an ensuing attempt and found Moon Ursin to tie the game for the first time. Smith, a national player of the year candidate, finished with 14 points, 13 rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocks. Ursin had 13 points, six rebounds and three assists.

Carrington later gave Baylor its first lead of the game, 34-33, out of the official TV timeout. After a layup by Olivia Nelson-Ododa and free throws by Bueckers, Carrington scored the last five points of the half to give the Bears a 39-37 advantage.

She scored 14 points with three rebounds, two steals, one assist and one block off the bench. Edwards played only eight minutes in the first half after two fouls within the first four of the game.

Baylor went up 10 on UConn late in the third for the Huskies’ largest deficit of the tournament. It started with eight straight points on baskets by Carrington, Richards and Smith. Smith finished it off with an athletic tip-in near the rim on a shot by Carrington and Ursin got in on the scoring after Nelson-Ododa made one of two free throws.

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College basketball picks, schedule: Predictions, odds for Villanova vs. UConn and other key games

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We are just three weeks away from Selection Sunday i, folks. Four! That’s 22 days from Saturday. Just over 500 hours. 32,000 minutes (and change). But who’s counting, right?

That creeping deadline means conference races are coming down to the wire across the country as teams jockey for NCAA Tournament seeding, and the stakes for each game from here on out get ratcheted up a notch. It’s why Saturday’s slate of games, with March Madness nearly upon us, should be a nice little appetizer to whet your college hoops whistle ahead of next month.

On tap are six top-10 teams taking the court, four of whom are on the road, along with critical showdowns in the Big 12, SEC, Big Ten, Big East and — OK, you get it: everywhere.

So to get the juicing flowing for the big day ahead, our staff has done the leg work to make picks straight up and against the spread for Saturday’s big games below.

UConn at No. 10 Villanova

Latest Odds:

Villanova Wildcats
-6.5

When: 1 p.m. | Where: Finneran Pavilion in Villanova, Pennsylvania
TV: Fox | Live stream: fuboTV (Try for free) 

UConn could really use a win of this magnitude to safely propel itself onto the right side of the tournament bubble. And after welcoming back James Bouknight this week, who returned from injury with a bang, I’m going to give the Huskies a vote of confidence in this spot. Villanova is the better team with the better record, but UConn is a different team with Bouknight and needs this one bad. Could be a good chance to kick Nova while its down after it took a surprisingly lopsided loss at the hands of Creighton last Saturday. Prediction: UConn 78, Villanova 74. — Kyle Boone

Kentucky at No. 19 Tennessee

Latest Odds:

Tennessee Volunteers
-7.5

When: 1 p.m. | Where: Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville, Tennessee
TV: CBS | Live stream:  CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App (Free)
OTT: CBS Sports App (Apple TV, Roku, Fire TV, Chromecast) 

Prediction: Tennessee is the better team, but Kentucky is playing at a higher level than it was during the first meeting just two weeks ago. The Volunteers should win, but it might be closer than most people think. Prediction: Tennessee 71, Kentucky 67 — David Cobb

No. 15 Texas Tech at No. 23 Kansas

Latest Odds:

Kansas Jayhawks
-1.5

When: 2 p.m. | Where: Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, Kansas
TV: ESPN | Live stream: fuboTV (Try for free) 

During Kansas’ four-game winning streak, only one win — Oklahoma State — came against a team that has won more than one game in Big 12 play. So that streak is a tad misleading. Still, KU seems to be figuring out its defense as the season wears on. So if it’s a defensive battle like the last time these two teams met, I like the Jayhawks to get the season sweep. And that’s indeed how I think this one could shape up. Prediction: Kansas 71, Texas Tech 67. — Kyle Boone

No. 13 West Virginia at No. 12 Texas

Latest Odds:

Texas Longhorns
-3

When: 3 p.m. | Where: Frank Erwin Center in Austin, Texas
TV: ABC | Live stream: fuboTV (Try for free) 

Between COVID interruptions and bad fortunes in close games, Texas’ 10-1 start to the season has turned into a 13-5 record overall after a rocky month. But a week layover after two consecutive wins should be time enough to help propel it to one of its biggest games remaining in the regular season. At full strength, I like the Longhorns here to get the season sweep on the Mountaineers. Talented, deep and experienced enough to give West Virginia real fits where its strengths lie. Prediction: Texas 80, West Virginia 74. — Kyle Boone

No. 5 Illinois at Minnesota

Latest Odds:

Illinois Fighting Illini
-4.5

When: 3:30 p.m. | Where: Williams Arena in Minneapolis, Minnesota
TV: Fox | Live stream: fuboTV (Try for free) 

As a home team this season, Minnesota is 9-4-1 against the spread and a perfect 4-0 ATS as a home dog. So, no, I can’t bring myself to fade the Golden Gophers here. Not even against an Illini team that’s won six straight. Illinois, an upset alert has been issued. Norlander and I are riding Minnesota in an upset pick. Prediction: Minnesota 74, Illinois 71. — Kyle Boone

No. 7 Virginia at Duke

Latest Odds:

Virginia Cavaliers
-2

When: 8 p.m. | Where: Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, North Carolina
TV: ESPN | Live stream: fuboTV (Try for free) 

The loss of Jalen Johnson for Duke is a tough blow, but the Blue Devils have looked fine –even, dare I say, good! — during their recent two-game win streak. Additionally, they absolutely need this one to preserve any longshot chance of getting to the tourney. After UVA’s beatdown at the hands of Florida State, I’m convinced Duke can give the Cavaliers a game. Prediction: Duke 69, Virginia 67. — Kyle Boone

So who wins every college basketball game today? And which underdogs pull off stunning upsets? Visit SportsLine now to get picks for every game, all from the unbiased model that simulates every game 10,000 times, and find out.

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Paige Bueckers takes over to deliver No. 2 UConn to win over No. 1 South Carolina in OT

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11:31 PM ET

  • Mechelle VoepelESPN.com

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      Mechelle Voepel covers the WNBA, women’s college basketball, and other college sports for espnW. Voepel began covering women’s basketball in 1984, and has been with ESPN since 1996.

UConn women’s basketball coach Geno Auriemma likes to make analogies to other sports, which is how famed running back Jim Brown came up when Auriemma was talking about freshman sensation Paige Bueckers.

Bueckers had her third consecutive game of 30 points or more — something no other UConn player has ever done — as her 31 points lifted the No. 2 Huskies over No. 1 South Carolina 63-59 in overtime on Monday night in Storrs, Connecticut. The 5-foot-11 guard scored the Huskies’ final 13 points, including all nine in the extra period, and played all 45 minutes. She made 14 of 26 shots from the field and had 4 rebounds, 5 assists and 6 steals.

“She’s very slow, and I say that with a high degree of appreciation,” Auriemma said. “She takes her time … she’s like when Jim Brown used to run. When she gets the ball, she’s like, ‘Should I go to that hole, that hole, that one … what’s the best decision for me right now?’ She waits until the absolute last minute, and nothing rushes her. So you can’t make her play faster than she wants to play.

“When you’re as good a shooter as she is … she really just has a lot of confidence in her ability. If she can get one off, she thinks it’s going in. I marvel sometimes at how hard she has to work because of the defensive attention that she gets every night. She’s just good.”

This game didn’t become a matchup of the top two ranked teams until Monday afternoon, when the Associated Press poll came out. Eleven-time national champion UConn has been in many of these matchups since ascending to national status in the 1990s. Even though the Huskies are 14-1, this isn’t a powerhouse team like many UConns in the past; even Auriemma would say that.

But it does have a superstar freshman who expertly scores off screens and steps forward in the biggest moments like a longtime veteran. Bueckers, who was the No. 1 recruit from the class of 2020, is leading the Huskies in scoring (21.1 PPG), assists (5.6 APG) and steals (2.6 SPG). She is shooting 56.9% from the field and 55.6% from 3-point range.

UConn has had a treasure trove of past superstars who also had remarkable freshmen seasons, including Diana Taurasi, Maya Moore and Breanna Stewart in the past 20 years, all of whom went on to be the MVP in the WNBA. None of them, though, were playing on a team with six other freshmen, as Bueckers is. It means it’s her team in a way it wasn’t for those other superstars as freshmen. She is getting an enormous spotlight and so far is excelling even beyond expectations.

“She’s a player,” South Carolina coach Dawn Staley said. “She makes big shots when her number’s called time and time again.”

Yet if the Gamecocks had hit one of the four shots they had at the basket at the end of regulation — Destanni Henderson’s jumper was short, then Victaria Saxton missed a putback, followed by Aliyah Boston’s two missed putback attempts — Bueckers wouldn’t have been the story of the night.

The Gamecocks will rue their missed layups, which ruined their normally lethal transition game, missed free throws (they went 8-of-15) and turnovers (21). They kept the Huskies 24 points below their season average of 87.1 coming into the game, held them to just 2-of-15 from behind the arc and outrebounded them 52-39.

South Carolina ended the 2019-20 season ranked No. 1 and started this one in the same place, before losing to NC State on Dec. 3. The Gamecocks’ replacement in the top spot, Stanford, dropped down after an overtime loss at Colorado on Jan. 17, and Louisville took over at No. 1. When NC State beat Louisville last Monday, South Carolina elevated to No. 1 again in this week’s poll.

But it will be a short stay, because the Gamecocks’ mistakes and Bueckers’ big shots Monday did them in. The second of the Huskies’ 3-pointers came from Bueckers with 13 seconds left, hitting the rim, bouncing high in the air and then falling through the net.

“It felt good when it left my hand,” said Bueckers, who missed her other five 3-point attempts. “But, yeah, I would say that was a really nice bounce.”

It was that kind of night for her, but it’s already become a regular thing just 14 games into her college career [she missed one game with an ankle sprain]. Bueckers also had a 3-pointer with 28 seconds left against Tennessee on Jan. 21 that was the dagger shot of that 67-61 victory.

“It’s still crazy to me,” Bueckers said of how her UConn career has started. “Just the blessings that I’ve been given, just the opportunities I’ve received. It’s all just so crazy to me that I’m here playing at my dream school in huge games like this with an amazing team and coaching staff. Every day, every second, every minute, I’m super grateful to be here.”

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