Tag Archives: U.K. government

Bank of England Further Expands Bond-Market Rescue to Restore U.K.’s Financial Stability

LONDON—The Bank of England extended support targeted at pension funds for the second day in a row, the latest attempt to contain a bond-market selloff that has threatened U.K. financial stability.

The central bank on Tuesday said it would add inflation-linked government bonds to its program of long-dated bond purchases, after an attempt on Monday to help pension funds failed to calm markets.

“Dysfunction in this market, and the prospect of self-reinforcing ‘fire sale’ dynamics pose a material risk to U.K. financial stability,” the BOE said.

The yield on a 30-year U.K. inflation-linked bond has soared above 1.5% this week, up from 0.851% on Oct. 7, according to

Tradeweb.

Just weeks ago, the yield on the gilt, as U.K. government bonds are known, was negative. Because yields rise as prices fall, the effect has been punishing losses for bond investors.

Turmoil in the U.K. bond market created a feedback loop that left investors like pension funds short on cash and rippled out into other markets. WSJ’s Chelsey Dulaney explains the type of investment at the heart of the crisis. Illustration: Ryan Trefes

On Tuesday, after the BOE expanded the purchases, the yield on inflation-linked gilts held mostly steady but at the new, elevated levels. The central bank said it bought roughly £2 billion, equivalent to about $2.21 billion, in inflation-linked gilts, out of a £5 billion daily capacity.

The bank’s bond purchases, however, are meant to run out on Friday. The Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association, a trade body that represents the pension industry, urged the central bank on Tuesday to extend its purchases until the end of the month.

The near-daily expansion of the Bank of England’s rescue plan highlighted the challenges facing central banks in stamping out problems fueled by a once-in-a-generation increase in inflation and interest rates. It also raised questions about whether the BOE was providing the right medicine to address the problem.

The turmoil sparked fresh demands on Monday for pension funds to come up with cash to shore up LDIs, or liability-driven investments, derivative-based strategies that were meant to help match the money they owe to retirees over the long term.

LDIs were at the root of the bond selloff that prompted the BOE’s original intervention. Pension plans in late September saw a wave of margin calls after Prime Minister

Liz Truss’s

government announced large, debt-funded tax cuts that fueled an unprecedented bond-market selloff.

The BOE launched its original bond-purchase program on Sept. 28, but it only restored calm for a couple of days before selling resumed. An expansion of the program on Monday backfired, with yields again soaring higher.

The selloff on Monday was “very reminiscent of two weeks ago,” said

Simeon Willis,

chief investment officer of XPS, a company that advises pension plans.

LDI strategies use leveraged financial derivatives tied to interest rates to amplify returns. The outsize moves in U.K. bond markets last month led to huge collateral calls on pensions to back up the leveraged investments. The pension funds have sold other assets, including government and corporate bonds, to meet those calls, adding to pressure on yields to rise and creating a spiral effect on markets.

Pensions are typically big holders of inflation-linked government bonds, which help protect the plans from both inflation and interest-rate changes. But these weren’t eligible in the BOE’s bond-buying program until Tuesday.

The U.K. helped pioneer bonds with payouts linked to inflation, sometimes referred to as linkers, in the 1980s. Linkers were originally sold exclusively to pensions, but the U.K. opened them to other investors over the years.

Pensions remain a dominant force in the market because the bonds offer long-term protection against both inflation and interest-rate changes. Their outsize role left the market vulnerable to shifts in pension-fund demand like that seen in recent weeks.

Adam Skerry, a fund manager at Abrdn with a focus on inflation-linked government bonds, said his firm has struggled to trade those assets in recent days.

“We were trying to sell some bonds this morning, and it was virtually impossible to do that,” he said. “The LDI issue that’s facing the market, the fact that the market is moving to the degree that it did, particularly yesterday, suggests that there’s still an awful lot [of selling] there.”

Pensions have also appeared hesitant to sell their bonds to the BOE, reflecting a mismatch in what the central bank is offering and what the market needs.

“The way that the bank has structured this intervention is they can only buy assets if people put offers into them, but nobody is putting offers in,” said Craig Inches, head of rates and cash at Royal London Asset Management. He said the pension funds would rather sell their riskier assets, including corporate bonds or property.

Mr. Willis of XPS said many pensions want to hold on to their government bonds because it helps protect pensions against changes in interest rates, which impact the way their liabilities are valued.

“If they sell gilts now, they’re doing it in the likelihood that they’ll need to buy them back in the future at some point and they might be more expensive, and that’s unhelpful,” he said.

Also plaguing the program: Pension funds are traditionally slow-moving organizations that make decisions with multidecade horizons. The market turmoil has hurtled them into the warp-speed-style moves usually reserved for traders at swashbuckling hedge funds.

To make decisions about the sale of assets, industry players describe a game of telephone playing out among trustees, investment advisers, fund managers and banks. Pension funds spread their assets among multiple managers, which are in turn held by separate custodian banks. Calling everyone for the necessary signoffs is creating a lengthy and involved process.

To give themselves more time, pension funds are pushing the BOE to extend the bond-buying program at least to the end of the month. That is when the U.K.’s Treasury chief,

Kwasi Kwarteng,

is expected to lay out the government’s borrowing plans for the coming year.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies, a nonpartisan think tank that focuses on the budget, warned Tuesday that borrowing is likely to hit £200 billion in the financial year ending March, the third highest for a fiscal year since World War II and £100 billion higher than planned in March of this year. Increased borrowing increases the supply of bonds and generally causes bond yields to rise.

Mr. Kwarteng on Tuesday declared his confidence in BOE Gov. Andrew Bailey as he faced questions from lawmakers for the first time in his new job.

“I speak to the governor very frequently and he is someone who is absolutely independent and is managing what is a global situation very effectively,” he said.

Write to Chelsey Dulaney at Chelsey.Dulaney@wsj.com, Anna Hirtenstein at anna.hirtenstein@wsj.com and Paul Hannon at paul.hannon@wsj.com

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U.K. Scraps Plan to Cut Income-Tax Rate for Top Earners

LONDON—The U.K. government backtracked on a key part of its broad tax-cut plan after facing a backlash from financial markets and a rebellion in its own ranks, sending the pound higher on Monday but marking a major setback for new Prime Minister Liz Truss and her economic agenda.

U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer

Kwasi Kwarteng

shelved an initiative to cut the top rate of income tax from 45% to 40%, more than a week after a broader fiscal plan to stoke growth through tax cuts and new spending forced an emergency intervention by the Bank of England to prevent a financial crisis.

Ms. Truss, who based her nascent leadership on a sweeping revamp of the British economy, defended the measure as recently as Sunday but eventually buckled under the pressure of international investors who balked at the scale of unfunded tax cuts and Conservative Party lawmakers shocked by polls showing they faced a near total wipeout at the next general election.

The pound rallied 1.3% against the dollar and bought $1.13 in late Monday trading—a higher rate than before the tax plans were unveiled last week. U.K. borrowing costs mostly fell, with the yield on the 10-year gilt slipping 0.21 percentage point to 3.93%, although yields were still far higher than before the plans.

“I know the plan put forward only 10 days ago has caused a little turbulence. I get it,” Mr. Kwarteng, the U.K.’s Treasury chief, told party members gathered at an annual conference on Monday. He said he hoped getting rid of the planned cut to the 45% rate would allow people to focus on the rest of the government’s pro-growth agenda.

He also sought to reassure financial markets: “There is no path to higher sustainable growth without fiscal responsibility.”

U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss, at the annual Conservative Party conference on Sunday. She defended the package in a BBC interview that day.



Photo:

oli scarff/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Under pressure from lawmakers, Mr. Kwarteng late Monday decided to bring forward the Office for Budget Responsibility analysis of public finances to October from Nov. 23. The report is seen as key to providing transparency to the market about whether and when the government program will generate growth.

Still, political analysts said the chaos of the past week marked a rocky start to Ms. Truss’s tenure and raised questions over whether she can hold her party together as she seeks to implement spending cuts to help fund the plan’s remaining tax cuts and reassure markets about the scale of government debts.

U.K. bookmakers Oddschecker on Monday placed the odds of Ms. Truss being forced out of leadership at 4-1, compared with 66-1 last week. “One of the most incompetent, catastrophic debuts in political leadership I’ve seen,” wrote Brian Klaas, an associate professor of global politics at University College London, on Twitter.

The move to slash the top income-tax rate was a small part of a much bigger stimulus announced on Sept. 23 that paired large subsidies to help homeowners and businesses cope with rising energy costs along with the biggest tax cuts in a generation, a package funded by borrowing that raised alarm among investors.

The most controversial part of the plan was the move to cut the highest rate of income tax on the wealthy at a time when high inflation is cutting into real wages and a recession looms.

Conservative Party lawmakers had lined up to criticize the abolition of the tax. On Sunday,

Michael Gove,

a former senior cabinet minister, said it was morally wrong. The growing list of rebels meant the government would likely have struggled to get the top-rate tax cut voted through Parliament.

Despite the change, questions remain about the plan’s economic viability. The change will affect only £2 billion, the equivalent of $2.23 billion, out of an initial package of tax cuts that totaled £45 billion in foregone revenue for the government, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, an independent think tank. It estimated the British government would still require an additional £72.4 billion in debt issuance this financial year.

This is “a rounding error in the context of the public finances,” said Paul Johnson, director of the IFS. “The chancellor still has a lot of work to do if he is to display a credible commitment to fiscal sustainability.”

Still, the move to roll back the tax cut was welcomed by some investors as an important signal that the government was responding to market concerns about the plan’s impact on inflation and debt at a time of rising interest rates and financial uncertainty.

“It’s a first step in restoring credibility that was lost after the fiscal statement,” said

Cathal Kennedy,

U.K. economist at RBC Capital Markets.

Government officials on Monday said they intended to press ahead with other measures announced in the mini-budget, including a reduction in the lowest rate of income tax that economists estimated was set to cost much more than the removal of the highest rate in lost revenues. Other controversial measures remain, including scrapping a cap on banker bonuses imposed after the 2008 financial crisis.

The International Monetary Fund gave a rare rebuke of the initial plan, saying it risked further fueling inflation that the BOE sees hitting 11% later this year. On Friday, ratings agency S&P lowered its outlook on U.K. sovereign debt to negative, citing risks to the country’s economy.

Political analysts said the Truss government was likely bowing to political reality as much as economic reality.

“This move is rather symbolic, being less about the amount of money it will save and more about the poor signal it had delivered of ideological tax cuts,” said

Chris Turner,

an analyst at ING Bank. “The move looks driven by a backlash from her own party and perhaps the threat of a sovereign rating downgrade.”

The top-rate tax cut had threatened to completely overshadow the annual Conservative Party conference that is currently under way in Birmingham. The conference, normally a three-day show of devotion to the party leader, is instead turning into a more somber event as the Tories brace for a difficult few years ahead of an election in 2024.

A series of opinion polls after the plan pointed to a big loss of support for the Conservative Party among voters as it approached the gathering.

At the conference,

Chris Philp,

a senior Treasury minister, said he expected the party to support the rest of the tax-cutting package and argued that the U.K. government had a strong balance sheet. “We think they are the right plans because ultimately those plans are what make our economy competitive,” he said.

Turmoil in the U.K. Economy

Monday’s announcement is the latest step to stem the fallout from the fiscal plan. Last week, after coming under pressure from the BOE, the government announced the Office for Budget Fiscal Responsibility, an independent public finances watchdog, will in November lay out the full cost of the package and whether it will generate the 2.5% a year of economic growth the government promises. The government had resisted having the watchdog score the plan.

Mr. Kwarteng also promised on Monday that no new tax cuts would be coming. Both steps were also welcomed by investors.

“That’s quite a shift,” said Chris Jeffery, head of interest rates and inflation at Legal & General Investment Management.

The government said it would outline other steps to pay for the tax cuts in November, including likely spending restrictions such as making below-inflation increases to unemployment benefits. In the meantime, the government is hoping to win over doubters with a drumbeat of new announcements of regulatory reforms to make everything from agriculture to child-care provision more competitive.

Worries about the impact of tax cuts on government borrowing helped push yields on government bonds sharply higher early last week. On Wednesday, the BOE stepped in to halt the surge and the threat of significant harm to some pension funds, announcing that it would buy up to £65 billion of government bonds in a series of daily auctions.

When the bank intervention ends in mid-October, yields could rise again, but not as quickly as in recent days, said Orla Garvey, a fixed-income portfolio manager at

Federated Hermes.

The top-rate tax cut had threatened to overshadow the annual Conservative Party conference that is currently under way in Birmingham.



Photo:

oli scarff/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Write to Paul Hannon at paul.hannon@wsj.com, Max Colchester at max.colchester@wsj.com and Anna Hirtenstein at anna.hirtenstein@wsj.com

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