Transportation/Shipping - HeadlinesCurator

After that CPI shock earlier in the week, Wall Street is fielding a fresh batch of data on Thursday, with the headline retail sales number coming in stronger than expected. And a disastrous rail strike may be inverted.

But there’s no cheering up billionaire investor and hedge-fund manager Ray Dalio who in our call of the day asserts the Fed has no choice but to keep driving up interest rates, at a high price to stocks.

And he’s putting some fairly precise guesswork out there. “I estimate that a rise in rates from where they are to about 4.5% will produce about a 20% negative impact on equity prices,” Dalio said in a LinkedIn post dated Tuesday.

Some are forecasting the Fed could hike interest rates by 100 basis points next week, a move not seen since the likewise inflationary 80s. The central bank’s short-term rate hovers between 2.25% to 2.5%, but Nomura, for one, sees that rate headed to 4.75% by 2023.

But Dalio thinks interest rates could even reach the higher end of a 4.5%-to-6% range. “This will bring private sector credit growth down, which will bring private sector spending, and hence the economy down with it,” he says.

Behind this prediction is the Bridgewater Associates founder belief that the market is severely underestimating where inflation will end up — at 2.6% over the next 10 years versus what he sees as 4.5% to 5% in the medium term, barring shocks.

Read: Why a single U.S. inflation report roiled global financial markets — and what comes next

As for what happens when people start losing money in the markets — the so-called “wealth effect” — he expects less spending as they and their lenders grow more cautious.

“The upshot is that it looks likely to me that the inflation rate will stay significantly above what people and the Fed want it to be (while the year-over-year inflation rate will fall), that interest rates will go up, that other markets will go down, and that the economy will be weaker than expected, and that is without consideration given to the worsening trends in internal and external conflicts and their effects.”

The markets

Stock futures
ES00,
-0.25%

YM00,
+0.02%

NQ00,
-0.48%
are slightly lower post data, as Treasury yields
TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.437%

TMUBMUSD02Y,
3.852%
keep climbinging and the dollar
DXY,
-0.10%
firms up.

Oil prices
CL.1,
-1.63%
are lower, along with gold
GC00,
-0.83%.
China stocks
SHCOMP,
-1.16%

HSI,
+0.44%
slipped after the country’s central bank left rates unchanged. European natural-gas prices
GWM00,
+4.13%
are on the rise again. Bitcoin
BTCUSD,
+0.64%
is trading at just over $20,000.

The buzz

Shares of Union Pacific
UNP,
-3.69%,
Norfolk Southern
NSC,
-2.16%
and CSX
CSX,
-1.05%
are rallying in premarket after the White House said it has reached a tentative railway agreement with unions. No deal by Friday would mean strikes and havoc for supply chains, grain markets and even the coming holidays. Read more here.

August retail sales rose a stronger-than-expected 0.3% as Americans spent on new cars while weekly jobless claims came in lower for a fifth-straight week and import prices dropped 1%. Elsewhere, the Empire State manufacturing index perked up on the heels of a deep negative reading, but the Philly Fed factory index worsened. Industrial production and business inventories are still to come.

Adobe shares
ADBE,
+0.85%
are dropping after a report the software company is mulling a $20 billion deal to buy graphic design startup Figma .

Vitalik Buterin, one of the co-founders of Ethereum, says the so-called “merge” is done, meaning the birth of a more environmentally friendly crypto. Ethereum
ETHUSD,
-1.22%
is up just a little right now.

A new lawsuit claims Tesla
TSLA,
+3.59%
has made false promises over Autopilot and Full Self Driving features. And move over Tesla, Apple
AAPL,
+0.96%
is now Wall Street’s biggest short bet.

Ericsson
ERIC,
-3.32%

ERIC.A,
-1.78%

ERIC.B,
-3.34%
is dropping after a double downgrade at Credit Suisse, who cited inflationary headwinds. Analysts lifted Nokia
NOKIA,
-0.51%

NOK,
-0.40%
to outperform, though the stock is barely moving.

Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management went on a dip-buying spree after Tuesday’s market meltdown, scooping up chiefly Roku
ROKU,
+0.44%.

Opinion: Pinterest never considered itself a social network. Until now.

Patagonia billionaire Yvon Chouinard is donating his entire company — worth $3 billion — to the climate fight.

Best of the web

No U.S. shale rescue for Europe.

Turkey finds an extra $24.4 billion laying around.

Queue to pay respects to Queen is 2.6 miles long and counting.

The tickers

These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern Time:

Ticker	Security name
TSLA, +3.59%	Tesla
GME, +1.01%	GameStop
AMC, +1.95%	AMC Entertainment
BBBY, +4.66%	Bed Bath & Beyond
HKD, +311.78%	AMTD Digital
NIO, -0.14%	NIO
AAPL, +0.96%	Apple
APE, +0.94%	AMC Entertainment preferred shares
AMZN, +1.36%	Amazon
NVDA, -0.02%	Nvidia

Random reads

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Read original article here

Americans accumulated extra savings during the pandemic, but that money is fast dwindling because of inflation.

Some 70% of Americans are using their savings to cover rising prices, a recent Forbes Advisor survey of 2,000 U.S. adults concluded. Among those polled, older adults were more likely to say they have left their savings intact.

In fact, the personal savings rate for April 2022 hit 4.4% — the lowest level since September 2008 — down from 6% at the beginning of the year, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, a department of the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Another concern: More respondents told a New York Federal Reserve “Survey of Consumer Expectations” that their finances are worse now than they were a year ago. In fact, the average perceived chance of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months increased by 0.4 percentage point to 11.1%, according to the results of the survey released Monday.

“Median household nominal spending growth expectations increased sharply to 9% from 8% in April,” the NY Fed said. “This is the fifth consecutive increase and a new series high. The increase was most pronounced for respondents between the age of 40 and 60 and respondents without a college education.”

That slump in savings and rise in spending comes at a time when the drum beat of recession grows louder. Case in point: Nearly 70% of 49 respondents expect the National Bureau of Economic Research to declare a recession next year, according to the FT survey published Sunday; the survey was conducted with the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth’s School of Business.

Though some Americans have built up savings during the pandemic, helped by COVID-related government benefits, those savings appear to be running low as people cope with rising prices.

Laura Veldkamp, a finance and economic professor at Columbia University, suggested people try renegotiating salaries with their employers. “Prices will not come back down,” she said. “They never do.” Dipping into savings to cope with rising prices is not a sustainable long-term solution, she added.

The increase in the cost of living is making Americans nervous. Inflation rose 8.6% on the year through May, the highest since 1981. A survey of U.S. consumer confidence fell in May to a three-month low of 106.4. That’s one of many surveys pointing to a pessimistic outlook by people both for their own finances and the U.S. economy.

For the week ending May 29, grocery inflation reached a record high of 14.6% compared to a year ago, according to the latest survey from data company Numerator. The survey shows that middle-income consumers — those who earn $40,000 to $80,000 a year — are paying the greatest price increases among all income levels.

“‘Cutting down on your budget doesn’t need to be painful.’”

— Thomas Scanlon, a financial adviser with Raymond James Financial

In April, consumer spending increased by $152.3 billion, separate Bureau of Economic Analysis data found, with people spending the most money on motor vehicles and auto parts, in addition to food and housing. Compared to the month before, the consumption of gas and other energy decreased by $26.9 billion.

On Sunday, AAA pegged the national average at $5.01 for a gallon of gasoline. That’s 20 cents higher than it was a week ago, 60 cents higher than a month ago, and almost $2 more than the $3.07 average a year ago, according to AAA data.

Thomas Scanlon, a financial adviser with Raymond James Financial in Manchester, Conn., said it’s a good time to adopt thrifty habits, such as borrowing from the public library instead of buying a book, and looking to free leisure activities such as visits to some museums and beaches.

“Cutting down on your budget doesn’t need to be painful,” Scanlon said, “it can be an opportunity to spend a good time with friends and families.”

Read original article here

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‘Prices will not come back down’: Americans dip into their savings to cope with record-high inflation

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