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Dow Jones Futures: Great Stock Market Rallies Are Bad Teacher; Analyzing Tesla, Bitcoin, Microsoft

Dow Jones futures will reopen Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, after the stock market rally showed resilience last week. The Bitcoin price traded below $56,000 after surging again last week to fresh record highs.




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Solar IPO Shoals Technologies (SHLS), 5G chipmakers Qorvo and MaxLinear (MXL), Dow Jones giant Microsoft (MSFT) are all near buy points, with SHLS stock and Microsoft already actionable and Apple supplier Qorvo (QRVO) arguably so. We’ll also take a look at Tesla (TSLA), which continues to test key levels.

The Dow Jones actually edged higher while the S&P 500 and S&P 500 fell modestly, rallying off short-term support. Growth stocks, especially more speculative names, suffered significant to sharp losses, though they generally rebounded on Friday. Metals, miners and financial stocks were strong performers.

Still, the recent action highlights the need for proper entries and sound sell rules. The problem with such a strong stock market rally is that it’s a bad teacher. Just like an easy A, everyone enjoys easy money. But if you lean the wrong lessons from the past 10 months, then that easy money will go away quickly.

While the Nasdaq is no longer extended, margin debt and investor exposure overall is a growing concern.


Why This IBD Tool Simplifies The Search For Top Stocks


Tesla stock and Microsoft are on IBD Leaderboard. MSFT stock is on IBD Long-Term Leaders. SHLS stock is IBD Stock Of The Day. MXL stock is the focus of a recent IBD Stock Analysis column.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures will open at 6 p.m. ET Sunday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.


Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live.


Coronavirus News

Coronavirus cases worldwide reached 111.24 million. Covid-19 deaths topped 2.46 million.

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. have hit 28.60 million, with deaths above 507,000.

Stock Market Rally Last Week

The stock market rally had a mixed week, with a mini-rotation from growth stocks into cyclicals and financials.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1% in last week’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index dipped 0.7%. The Nasdaq composite retreated 1.6%, but bounced somewhat from its 21-day exponential moving average.

Growth stocks were roughed up in the middle of the week, but Friday gains helped limit losses overall.

Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) dipped 0.6% last week, thanks to a 2.15% pop on Friday. The Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) edged down 0.2% last week. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) fell 1.4%. Microsoft stock is the top IGV holding. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) lost 0.3%, with QRVO stock a component.

Losses were heavier in more-speculative names. ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), which owns Tesla stock and many others, slid 2.5%, even with a 2.3% bounce Friday. ARK Genomics Revolution ETF (ARKG) retreated 4.1% last week, with several key holdings taking big hits.

Bitcoin Price Soars

While speculative stocks struggled a bit, Bitcoin remained hot, skyrocketing past $50,000, $52,000 and finally $56,500 on Friday. It was trading below $56,000 Friday night.

With growing mainstream acceptance of the cryptocurrency and Tesla CEO Elon Musk continuing to point the table, Bitcoin has a lot of momentum. While Bitcoin doesn’t have fundamentals per se, investors can still trade it on a technical basis. Bitcoin and Bitcoin-related stocks are going vertical. A Bitcoin pullback would not be a surprise, even if it’s only temporary.

SHLS Stock

Shoals stock jumped 5.9% last week to 40.17, with nearly all of the gain coming Friday. SHLS stock is now actionable, above an early entry just before 40. The official buy point is 41.86, according to MarketSmith analysis.

The IPO base has a lot of positive qualities. After a brief run-up from the late January IPO debut, SHLS stock corrected just 16%. On Friday, the relative strength line hit a new high with the stock still in the base. That’s especially bullish, giving Shoals stock a blue dot at the end of its RS line on a MarketSmith chart.

Shoals Technologies makes a variety of gear for solar energy systems and components to carry electricity from solar panels to inverters. It’s already profitable, with decent sales growth.

MaxLinear Stock

MaxLinear stock rose 3.3% to 38.33 last week, including a 5.8% jump Friday. That’s just below a 38.81 buy point from a seven-week consolidation. Over the past couple of weeks, up days have come on higher volume than down sessions.

The RS line for MXL stock is near a record high.

The 5G chipmaker delivered huge growth in the latest quarter: Earnings surged 144% on 178% sales growth.

Qorvo Stock

Qorvo stock jumped 4.8% on Friday to 179.39, turning a weekly loss into a 1.9% gain. Friday’s rebound from the 50-day/10-week line also pushed QRVO stock over its 21-day line and up to the edge of a downward-sloping trend line. Investors could buy the Apple iPhone chip supplier here or wait for a little more strength to clear the down trend.

Qorvo stock is working on a base with a likely 191.93 official buy point. It needs another week for a flat base, though at 15.01% deep it’s a hair too deep. Investors might want to at least start a position off the 10-week line or trend line. QRVO stock has had solid gains over the past few months but has had a tendency to run up and then pull back to the top of the prior consolidation before rebounding again.

While Qorvo stock had a strong week, key customer Apple did not. Apple stock fell 4.1%, finishing 1.9% below its 10-week line.

Microsoft Stock

Microsoft stock fell 1.6% to 240.97. That was just a little too much of a drop to form a three-weeks-tight, though investors could use 246.23 as an add-on entry. MSFT stock is still in range from a 232.96 buy point

The Dow Jones tech giant has been booming thanks to cloud computing. Microsoft earnings growth has accelerated for the past two quarters. The 17% revenue gain in the last quarter was the best in years.

Tesla Stock

Tesla stock fell 4.3% last week to 781.30. Shares rebounded from the 50-day line on Wednesday — as Ark Funds’ Cathie Wood expressed growing “confidence” in Tesla stock, saying she was buying more shares. But TSLA stock finished the week slightly below the 10-week line.

Earlier this month, this column reviewed the Tesla stock bull case from a technical standpoint. Those conditions all still remain and in some ways have improved. A TSLA stock rebound from the 50-day/10-week line would offer a buying opportunity, but investors might want to wait to see if TSLA stock can reclaim its now-falling 21-day. As Tesla continues to move sideways, a possible downward-sloping trend line becomes less steep. Also, if Tesla does start to bounce back, it’ll soon have a new base.

But what’s the bear case for Tesla stock from a technical standpoint? Well it has been lagging the market in the past few weeks, which is not a big deal so far. Speculative names are facing some pressure, and TSLA has had a mammoth run. Analyst price targets on Tesla stock make heroic assumptions about the company’s sales, self-driving prospects and much more for the next decade.

TSLA stock is hitting resistance at the 21-day line, at least for now.

Keep in mind that the 50-day/10-week line test is a test. A successful test would offer a new buying chance, but a failure could trigger a sell signal.

If TSLA stock falls decisively through 50-day/10-week line, what’s the next support area? Perhaps 695, the price at which Tesla entered the S&P 500 index. Beyond that you’re looking at top of the prior base at about 500. The 200-day line is now about 450, not far from the November breakout buy point of 466.

All of that would be within character for TSLA stock, especially if the market fell into a correction. Even on the huge run from late 2019, Tesla stock has had some deep bases.

So if investors do buy Tesla stock at or near these levels, price that off the 10-week line and be ready to sell. A decisive break may be signal for longer-term investors to take some more profits.

Tesla arguably is the most important stock in the market rally. It’s the ultimate story stock, with a huge market cap. Call options helped fuel its 2020 run. Ark Funds is a major Tesla stock investor and champion. The EV maker has even bought $1.5 billion worth of the power-hungry Bitcoin.

If and when Tesla marks a major top, that could trigger or coincide with a big stock market top.

Stock Market Analysis

Last week the Nasdaq had a tame pullback, finding support where you’d expect at the 21-day line. Is the pullback or rotation out of speculative growth over? Friday’s lackluster action, with the Nasdaq closing near session lows, wasn’t inspiring.

If the stock market rally rebounds quickly, how much is there to run? The Nasdaq closed Friday 5.1% above its 50-day moving average. That’s not extended, but not far from being so once again.

Meanwhile, other indicators continue flash warning signs. Margin debt surged 42% in January vs. a year earlier. That’s the most since late 2007, though still below the 55% annual gain associated with major market tops. However, the rise of leveraged ETFs and skyrocketing use of call options suggest that investor leverage is significantly higher than margin debt alone. Also, margin debt year-over-year comparisons will get easier in February and March, as investors exited during the coronavirus crash.

All of that investor leverage, fueled by Fed policy, stimulus checks and millions of Americans stuck at home in a zero-fee trading era, have helped drive the enormous stock market rally. But if the market has a significant correction, that can spur an big drop in leverage, spurring further selling.

Right now, the stock market rally still looks strong. And over the past 10 months, pullbacks have generally been shallow and short lived. Even the two-month correction last fall was relatively modest for a correction. But at some point the stock market rally will turn into a major correction or bear market. Enjoy this stock market rally, but stay disciplined and prepared for a change in character.

What To Do Now

Great stock market rallies make bad teachers. But at this stage of the rally, investors should follow the rules and do their homework.

Check your individual holdings and overall exposure. Have a game plan for your stocks and stress test your portfolio.

It’s a good idea to check out or rewatch Wednesday’s IBD Live show featuring David Ryan. Ryan stressed the importance of focusing on sound bases and the need for sell rules. Ryan also noted the strength in many cyclical stocks and financials.

CAN SLIM investors should focus on leading stocks but it’s a good idea to have a diversity of leadership. Many mining, agricultural and bank stocks have been strong performers in recent months. Having some of those names can help avoid major drawdowns in your portfolio. Having even pilot positions in a variety of top groups will help you stay aware of strength in those areas. That could lead to further buys in those fields, especially if frothy areas of the market face more trouble.

All of this means being prudent and cautiously bullish, not bearish. It is still a strong stock market rally. There are good reasons to be significantly invested.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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Tesla Inc. stock underperforms Friday when compared to competitors

Shares of Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
-0.77%
shed 0.77% to $781.30 Friday, on what proved to be an all-around positive trading session for the stock market, with the NASDAQ Composite Index
COMP,
+0.07%
rising 0.07% to 13,874.46 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+0.00%
rising 0.00% to 31,494.32. This was the stock’s second consecutive day of losses. Tesla Inc. closed $119.10 below its 52-week high ($900.40), which the company achieved on January 25th.

The stock underperformed when compared to some of its competitors Friday, as Toyota Motor Corp. ADR
TM,
+0.07%
rose 0.07% to $153.55, General Motors Co.
GM,
+0.79%
rose 0.79% to $52.57, and Honda Motor Co. Ltd. ADR
HMC,
-0.73%
fell 0.73% to $28.49. Trading volume (18.8 M) remained 20.6 million below its 50-day average volume of 39.4 M.


Editor’s Note: This story was auto-generated by Automated Insights using data from Dow Jones and FactSet. See our market data terms of use.

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Tesla ranks 30th in unofficial debut on JD Power Dependability Study

The 2018 Lexus LC 500

Mack Hogan | CNBC

The three most dependable auto brands in the U.S. are now Lexus, Porsche and Kia, according to a new J.D. Power study. The three least dependable are Jaguar, Alfa Romeo and Land Rover.

Tesla, which was profiled for the first time in this year’s vehicle dependability study, came in 30th out of 33 automakers. It landed one place behind Chrysler and one ahead of Jaguar.

J.D. Power studies serve as an industry benchmark, and its results can drive sales and impact insurance premiums for owners. The 2021 U.S. Vehicle Dependability Study analyzed responses from 33,251 verified owners of 2018 model-year vehicles sold in the U.S. The study assessed around 150 different models including cars, trucks and SUVs.

Tesla’s ranking in the 32-year-old annual study this year is considered unofficial, said Dave Sargent, J.D. Power’s vice president of automotive quality. That’s because Elon Musk’s electric vehicle venture doesn’t grant J.D. Power permission to survey its owners in 15 states that require this.

One of the excluded states is California, Tesla’s home base and a massive market for the company. However, the J.D. Power study included 756 Tesla respondents from 35 different states including major markets with comparably warm weather like Florida and Texas.

While Tesla rated unofficially low on the dependability survey, it unofficially topped J.D. Power’s 2020 APEAL survey, which rates vehicle brands by owners’ emotional attachment and level of excitement with their new vehicles.

Who’s up, who’s down

The dependability survey asks drivers how many and what kind of problems their cars, trucks or SUVs experienced in the past year and assigns a score based on problems reported per 100 vehicles. The lower the score, the more dependable the automaker.

The greatest number of problems reported by vehicle owners across all makes and models concerned audio, communication, entertainment and navigation systems.

“With smartphone apps increasingly giving owners an alternative, some will give up on the vehicle’s built-in systems that caused that initial frustration. That’s problematic for automakers, as a lot of the vehicle’s value is tied up in these systems and they don’t want to hand this business over to third parties,” said Sargent.

The Porsche 911 was the highest-ranked model in the 2021 study.

Toyota-owned Lexus topped the list among all brands, with a score of 81 problems per 100 vehicles.

Kia vehicles have notably risen from among the least dependable auto brands in the U.S. to most dependable in just a decade, with 97 problems per 100 vehicles on average. Toyota was near the top of the list with 98 problems per 100 vehicles.

Volkswagen, which introduced two new models in 2018, slid in the dependability rankings. Sargent noted: “Results can be affected by whether a manufacturer has just launched a bunch of new products. They tend to be the most problematic their first year out.”

Owners of 3-year-old Teslas reported 176 problems per 100 vehicles, compared with the industry average in the U.S. of 121 problems per 100 vehicles. Tesla owners reported more problems with their exterior and interior than with other systems like propulsion, battery or infotainment and navigation. However, some did complain about troubles with Tesla’s in-vehicle voice recognition.

Overall, vehicle dependability improved by about 10% year over year, J.D. Power found. Part of this was due to lower use and abuse of vehicles amid a Covid pandemic that has restricted commuting and travel in 2020 stateside.

“We know the more people use a vehicle the more problems they’re going to have,” Sargent said. Last year, on average consumers had driven about 32,000 miles over three years of new vehicle ownership. This year, they had driven 29,000 miles — representing a 10% reduction over a three-year period, and an implied 30% reduction in the last year.

— CNBC’s Michael Wayland contributed to this report.

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Dow Jones Futures: Federal Reserve, Tesla ‘Confidence’ Stem Growth Sell-Off; Twilio, Tilray Lead Earnings Movers

Dow Jones futures were little changed late Wednesday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The stock market rally had a mixed session Wednesday, with the Dow Jones hitting record highs while many growth names struggling. The Bitcoin price surged above $52,000.




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Federal Reserve officials didn’t expect to start scaling back their huge asset-buying program for “some time,” newly released minutes from the January Fed meeting showed. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) rebounded from key support as ARK Funds’ Cathie Wood said she’s been buying more Tesla stock as “our confidence in Tesla has grown.” But Apple (AAPL) undercut key levels.

Meanwhile, communications software maker Twilio (TWLO),  Canadian pot producer Tilray (TLRY), edge networking leader Fastly (FSLY), Chinese search giant Baidu (BIDU), genomics tools maker 10X Genomics (TXG), fertilizer specialist Mosaic (MOS), lithium miner Albemarle (ALB) and chip design software maker Synopsys (SNPS) were key earnings overnight.

Twilio stock and Tilray were big winners overnight, while Mosaic and Baidu stock rose modestly. ALB stock, Fastly and Synopsys fell slightly while TXG stock was not active.

Generally these stocks are not close to buy points, either being too extended or well off highs. Mosaic stock, which cleared a short consolidation on Tuesday.

Apple stock and Tesla are on IBD Leaderboard.


IBD Stock Of The Day Breaks Out Amid Soaring Energy Prices


Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures were even with fair value. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed.

The Bitcoin price surged above $52,000 on Wednesday, a day after topping $50,000 for the first time. Bitcoin remained above $52,000 in evening trade. Cathie Wood, who has been buying Bitcoin-related plays, said the cryptocurrency could hit $200,000 if more corporations join Tesla in buying Bitcoin.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.


Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live.


Coronavirus News

Coronavirus cases worldwide reached 110.39 million. Covid-19 deaths topped 2.43 million.

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. have hit 28.44 million, with deaths above 502,000.

Fed Signals No Bond Taper For ‘Some Time’

Strong retail sales and other economic data early Wednesday appeared to undercut growth stocks around the open. A stronger economy is good news, all things being equal. However, the strong reports ease pressure to pass a huge new stimulus, though a big package is still likely. Also, the 10-year Treasury yield has been surging in recent weeks, moving slightly higher on Wednesday.

However, the Federal Reserve isn’t in any hurry to take the punchbowl away. While some Fed officials may have concerns about asset prices, Fed chief Jerome Powell and the central bank are focused on reviving economic growth and employment. The Fed meeting minutes released Wednesday afternoon made it clear that policymakers will keep pour cheap money into financial markets and the economy.

Stock Market Rally Wednesday

The stock market rally started off poorly, at least for growth stocks, getting worse as the morning went on. But ARK Funds CEO Cathie Wood talked up Tesla stock. At 2 p.m. ET, the Fed meeting minutes were released.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% in Wednesday’s stock market trading as industrials, financials and fertilizer makers and other real economy stocks fared well. The S&P 500 index closed just below fair value. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.6%, near session highs after tumbling 1.7% intraday.

Tesla Stock A Buy?

Tesla stock fell as low as 762.08 intraday, nearly touching its 50-day line and undercutting the 10-week average. But shares rallied to close up 0.2% to 798.15. Cathie Wood said she’s still buying up shares of the EV maker. Wood again expressed “confidence” in Tesla’s potential for ride-hailing and self-driving. Wood has been a long-time booster of Tesla’s self-driving efforts, even as autonomous experts step up criticism and more rivals test actual self-driving vehicles.

This is TSLA stock’s first 50-day/10-week test since its November breakout, so it could be a buying signaling. However, Tesla stock remains below its 21-day exponential moving average, an area of resistance in recent days.

Apple Stock

Apple stock did not fare as well, falling 1.8% to 130.84, closing below its 50-day and 10-week lines. Shares are falling further and further from a 138.89 cup-with-handle buy point. The relative strength line for Apple stock continues to fade. Apple stock is not flashing a huge sell signal yet — it’s just 1.2% below its 10-week line — unless you’re down 7%-8% on your purchase price.

Growth stocks had a rough outing, with richly valued software names and speculative stocks taking hits, even though they pared losses.

Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) sank 1.7%, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) lost 2%.  The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) retreated 1%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) sank 1.9%.

The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) lost 2.1% and ARK Genomic Revolution (ARKG) 1.8%.

Key Earnings

Twilio earnings beat views while revenue guidance was strong. Twilio stock leapt 11% overnight, signaling a record high. TWLO stock sank 2.3% on Wednesday to 411.65.

Tilray reported a smaller-than-expected loss, including a slim EBITDA profit, while sales narrowly beat. Tilray stock popped 9% in extended trade. But that’s not a big move for this marijuana stock. TLRY stock tumbled 9% to 31.51 on Wednesday, far below its Feb. 10 peak of 67.

Fastly earnings narrowly beat quarterly views but its guidance ranged from in line to slightly below consensus. FSLY stock retreated 4% in overnight trade. Fastly stock sank 2.7% to 94.85 on Wednesday, a fifth straight decline. Shares have been in a wide-and-loose consolidation that looks more suspect in the current stage of the stock market rally.

Baidu earnings easily topped forecasts but sales missed. Baidu stock rose 2% in extended trade. BIDU stock fell 5.4% on Wednesday, snapping an 11-day winning streak to a record high.

10X Genomics reported a huge loss but sales rose 49%, topping views. 10X stock was not yet active overnight. TXG stock sank 2.5% on Wednesday after reversing lower from a record high on Tuesday.

Mosaic earnings easily beat the consensus. MOS stock climbed 2% in extended action. Mosaic stock dipped 0.7% on Wednesday after clearing a short consolidation on Tuesday.

Synopsys earnings beat fiscal Q1 views. SNPS stock dipped 1% overnight. Synopsys slid 2.4% on Wednesday after reversing lower from a record high Tuesday. SNPS stock is extended from a 246.79 flat-base buy point, according to MarketSmith analysis.

Albemarle earnings topped forecasts. ALB stock fell 2% in extended trade. Albemarle stock fell 2.9% on Wednesday, undercutting its 50-day line after reversing lower Tuesday to below its 21-day line. Investors could buy an ALB stock rebound from the 50-day line, but should probably wait for a move above the 21-day or even Tuesday’s intraday high of 171.35.


Why This IBD Tool Simplifies The Search For Top Stocks


Stock Market Rally Analysis

Whether you want to call Wednesday’s session a pullback or rotation, the stock market rally saw movement out of leading stocks Wednesday.

Is this just another 1-day pause or the start of a one-week pullback or something more serious? The Nasdaq is now 6.2% above its 50-day moving average. That’s off recent highs but still slightly extended. The Nasdaq didn’t even close below its 10-day line. A retreat to the 21-day exponential moving average or even the 50-day line could still be seen as a relatively modest pullback, especially if the market bounced back. However, there’s always the possibility that this pullback will be deeper and longer lasting.

The Nasdaq never touched its 21-day line Wednesday, but many growth names were down more than 5% or more, adding to Tuesday’s losses.

Market Playtime Is Over

Powerful stock market rallies are great, but they can breed bad habits. Over the past 10 months, if you leveraged hard, bought the hottest names, added on pullbacks and didn’t worry about messy consolidations, then your portfolio saw huge gains.

Investors who bought the dip in the Nasdaq or Tesla stock were rewarded once again on Wednesday, at least for a few hours. Perhaps growth stocks will run right back to record highs yet again.

But if you trade like it’s a wild, unstoppable stock market rally long term, your portfolio is going to blow up.

It’s time to buckle down and adopt some proper sell rules and focus on top stocks building good-looking bases.

Remember, those top stocks and quality bases may not be in traditional growth names. If nothing else, investors should expand their horizons to cyclicals and financials.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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Dow Jones Reverses Lower As Bitcoin Jumps Above $50,000; Tesla Stock Slides Near Key Level

The Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly reversed lower Tuesday, as Bitcoin crossed above $50,000. Hot IPO stock Palantir Technologies dived on earnings, while Tesla stock looked to continue its rebound from a key support level.




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Among the Dow Jones leaders, Apple (AAPL) was down 1.3%, while Microsoft (MSFT) eased 0.3% in today’s stock market. Nike (NKE) is approaching a new buy point.

Tesla (TSLA) looked to snap a win streak Tuesday, sliding more than 2% in midday trade. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) dived as much as 10% on earnings ahead of the stock market open.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Nvidia (NVDA) and Trade Desk (TTD) are among the top stocks in or near buy zones in Tuesday’s stock market action.

Apple, Microsoft, Palantir and Tesla are IBD Leaderboard stocks. Nvidia was a recent IBD Stock Of The Day. Meanwhile, Nike was featured in last week’s Stocks Near A Buy Zone column.

Dow Jones Today

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly turned lower before again edging higher, while the S&P 500 fell 0.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite reversed 0.3% lower in midday trade.

U.S. Stock Market Today Overview

Index Symbol Price Gain/Loss % Change
Dow Jones (0DJIA) 31601.59 +143.19 +0.46
S&P 500 (0S&P5) 3949.72 +14.89 +0.38
Nasdaq (0NDQC ) 14164.92 +69.45 +0.49
Russell 2000 (IWM) 228.83 +1.57 +0.69
IBD 50 (FFTY) 49.48 +0.29 +0.59
Last Update: 10:36 AM ET 2/16/2021

Among exchange traded funds, Innovator IBD 50 (FFTY) traded up 0.1% Tuesday. Nasdaq 100 tracker Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) rose 0.2%. Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) added 0.1%.

Stock Market Rally

Looking back at the current uptrend, November was a key month for the stock market. IBD’s The Big Picture flagged the new uptrend following the market’s bullish follow-through day on Nov. 4. Meanwhile, the middle of February has the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting record highs.

As the Dow transports rallied last week, Friday’s Big Picture commented, “Many market veterans like to see this market sector rise in tandem with the Dow and other key indexes. It suggests growing confidence that the economy is picking up steam.”

Due to the recent strength, investors can shift back to an offense stance, with an understanding that there are still good reasons for caution. Look for stocks that are breaking out above new buy points, like Nvidia.

Focus on stocks that showed strong relative strength during the recent weakness. They could be some of the market’s leaders if the indexes are able to continue their record-setting ways.


Stock Market ETF Strategy And How To Invest


Bitcoin Price

The price of Bitcoin jumped more than 3% to all-time highs Tuesday morning. Bitcoin reached as high as $50,584 before paring gains to about $49,400 in morning trade, according to Coindesk.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) advanced 4% and is at new highs.

Dow Jones Stocks: Nike

Inside the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nike is about 4% away from a 148.05 buy point in a new flat base, according to IBD MarketSmith chart analysis. Shares fell 0.5% Tuesday morning.

Nike shares bullishly regained their 50-day moving average line in recent sessions.

Palantir Earnings

Early Tuesday, hot IPO stock Palantir Technologies reported strong Q4 results, but 2021 revenue guidance came in slightly below expectations.

Palantir stock dived more than 10% in morning trade before paring losses. It is testing its 50-day support level.

Stocks To Watch: AMD, Nvidia, Trade Desk

Top chip stock Advanced Micro Devices is approaching a 99.33 buy point in a flat base. Shares slipped more than 1% Tuesday, threatening to snap a three-day win streak.

IBD Leaderboard stock Nvidia is in the 5% buy zone past a flat base’s 587.76 buy point amid a 1% rise Tuesday. On Feb. 8, shares broke out above an early entry at 560.07.

According to Leaderboard commentary, “Nvidia broke out of a flat base and is in buy range. With this move, investors could add to their position, or make an initial purchase.”

Trade Desk is building the right side of a cup base, which shows a 972.90 buy point. Be on the lookout for a handle to form, offering a more risk-optimal entry. Shares gained 1.2% Tuesday morning.

A potential flaw is the stock’s lagging relative strength line. It remains relatively far from its old highs, indicating recent stock market underperformance.


IBD Live: A New Tool For Daily Stock Market Analysis


Tesla Stock

Tesla stock looked to snap a two-day win streak Tuesday, moving down more than 2%. On Friday, shares nearly dropped to the 10-week moving average line before reversing higher. A strong move from this key support level would signal a new buy area.

On Jan. 25, Tesla stock hit a record high at 900.40, after climbing as much as 93% from a 466 buy point in a cup with handle.

Dow Jones Leaders: Apple, Microsoft

Among the top Dow Jones stocks, Apple moved down 1.3% Tuesday, and remains below its 138.89 buy point in a cup with handle. Shares gave up the entry on Jan. 28.

Meanwhile, Microsoft fell 0.3% Tuesday morning and is just shy of record highs. Shares of the software giant broke out past a 232.96 buy point in recent sessions. The stock is at the top of the 5% buy zone that goes up to 244.61.

Be sure to follow Scott Lehtonen on Twitter at @IBD_SLehtonen for more on growth stocks and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

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The Tesla Semi’s 500 kWh battery and Convoy Mode are grossly underestimated

The Tesla Semi may be delayed for quite some time now, but it appears that Elon Musk’s all-electric Class 8 truck will be well worth the wait. And as the upcoming truck gets closer to mass production, it is becoming more and more evident that the Semi’s potential—particularly with regards to its batteries and FSD features—remains grossly underestimated. 

During a recent appearance at the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, Elon Musk revealed that the Semi would be equipped with a 500 kWh battery pack. The Tesla CEO did not specify which variant of the Semi will be fitted with a 500 kWh pack, though speculations from the electric vehicle community suggest that the battery would be for the truck’s 300-mile variant. However, even if this were the case, such an update provides a glimpse at just how far Tesla has come when it comes to its battery technology. 

Credit: The Kilowatts/Twitter

“You want something in the order of probably a 500 kWh pack. What we have in the Model S and X is a 100 kWh pack and probably something like a 500 kWh pack in the Tesla Semi,” Musk said. 

When the Semi was unveiled in late 2017, Tesla noted that the vehicle would consume less than 2 kWh per mile. Considering that the Tesla Semi’s two variants are listed with 300 and 500 miles of range, estimates pointed to the vehicle having a battery pack that’s likely around 600 kWh to 1,000 kWh. Musk’s recent update suggests that Tesla has improved its batteries to such a degree that the Semi now needs a smaller battery pack to accomplish its 300-mile range target. This may seem like a minor change, but a smaller battery pack presents numerous advantages, such as lower weight and significant production cost savings. These all contribute to make the 300-mile Tesla Semi a viable and competitive vehicle, especially considering its estimated $150,000 base price. 

Of course, these advantages only become more prominent if one considers the benefits of Tesla’s structural 4680 battery packs. With structural batteries in place, the Semi could save weight and production costs even further. A structural battery could also make the Semi more rigid, allowing it to be even safer than its initial iterations. This goes hand in hand with another update on the vehicle that was mentioned by Tesla, and one that is also widely ignored or at most underestimated today. 

(Credit: teslasemi_ via Instagram)

During Tesla’s Q4 FY 2020 earnings call, Elon Musk confirmed that the Semi might very well be the first vehicle in the company’s lineup that would receive full autonomy features. This was a point highlighted by both Elon Musk and Automotive President Jerome Guillen, who noted that the FSD hardware on the Semi would be the same one used in Tesla’s other vehicles. Musk, for his part, pointed out that the Semi’s FSD features will require Tesla to modify the FSD software’s parameters according to the Semi’s large size. 

Perhaps one thing that is rarely mentioned is that when the Semi was unveiled in 2017, Elon Musk remarked that the vehicle was already capable of utilizing a feature called “Convoy Mode,” which optimizes efficiency while allowing several uncrewed trucks to follow a lead, crewed vehicle. If Musk’s statements were accurate and Convoy Mode was already feasible with Enhanced Autopilot’s capabilities in late 2017, then such a function would likely be extremely plausible today with the Full Self-Driving Beta. This should make the Semi safer to use than traditional long-haulers, most of whom are still manually driven. Couple this with the Semi’s functions like its four electric motors, which help prevent incidents like jackknifing, and the upcoming all-electric Class 8 truck has a shot at becoming one of the safest large vehicles on the road today. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us for news tips. Just send a message to [email protected] to give us a heads up.



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Tesla introduces new center console in Model Y electric SUV

Tesla has started to introduce its new center console in the Model Y electric SUV after bringing it to the Model 3 last year.

Late last year, Tesla launched a refresh version of the Model 3 with several updated features.

One of the biggest changes was a new center console between the two front seats.

Tesla got rid of the piano black glossy finish and replaced it with a matte finish.

Instead of having a phone charger added to the top section, it has now been embedded into the console’s top section, which is now wrapped in the faux leather material around on all side.

The center section now slides open instead of with a flipping system in the previous version.

That system has been known to be flimsy at times for some owners, while the new sliding system is more robust and less subject to staying open.

The new center console was only integrated into the new Model 3 and not the Model Y despite the fact that the two vehicles were sharing an interior prior to the changes.

Now a few months later, TMC member joeinsac found a few brand-new Tesla Model Y at the Tesla center in Rocklin, California and they were equipped with the new center console:

One of the vehicles was showing a VIN 122,778 and a build date of 02/09/2021, which can give us an indication of around when Tesla made the change in the Model Y.

Although, the automaker still shows the old center console on the online configurator for the electric SUV:

Therefore, it’s unclear if all new Model Y vehicles are being built with the new center console or if Tesla is still transitioning the interior.

At times, Tesla has been known to make hardware changes gradually whenever they are ready and still produce some vehicles with some older hardware.

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XRP jumps 15%, while bitcoin and ether trade near record highs as Tesla, BNY Mellon and Mastercard warm to cryptocurrencies | Currency News | Financial and Business News

Ripple’s XRP cryptocurrency jumped on Friday after interest in bitcoin surged

The XRP price jumped on Friday as interest in cryptocurrencies surged after Elon Musk’s Tesla snapped up $1.5 billion of bitcoin and BNY Mellon and Mastercard took steps towards using the digital tokens.

XRP, the cryptocurrency of the Ripple network, rose as much as 15%, before slipping back slightly. It was up 11% to $0.5987 as of 9am ET, according to Bitstamp.

The bitcoin price was 1.4% higher at $48,129 on the Bitstamp exchange, just off a record high of above $48,300 touched on Thursday.

Elon Musk’s electric-car company Tesla revealed on Monday that it had bought $1.5 billion of bitcoin and planned to start accepting it as payment.

The announcement sent bitcoin soaring to a record high of above $48,000. The coin had been hovering below $40,000 for much of the previous two weeks.

Read more: A Ruffer portfolio manager invested a portion of his $4.8 billion fund in Bitcoin. Here’s what swayed him to bet on crypto – and the 2 other ways he’s hedging against worrying speculative bubbles

On Thursday, bitcoin jumped to a new high of above $48,300 after BNY Mellon and Mastercard both warmed to cryptocurrencies.

Mastercard announced it will allow merchants to accept select cryptocurrencies on its network starting later this year. And Bank of New York Mellon said it will issue, hold, and transfer bitcoin for clients in the future.

The announcements appear to have boosted other crypto assets such as Ripple’s XRP and Ethereum’s ether.

Ether, the native cryptocurrency on the Ethereum network, was roughly flat at $1,793 on Bitstamp on Friday morning. But it was not far off a record high of more than $1,800 reached earlier in the week.

‘Meme’ cryptocurrency dogecoin was down around 7% to $0.068, however.

“It does appear that [XRP network] Ripple, like many others, are riding the bitcoin wave,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at currency firm Oanda. 

“Although it is significantly outperforming so far today. It does have a lot of lost ground to make up, so perhaps that may explain why it’s being targeted.

“There doesn’t seem to be much else behind the moves which should always be a concern, but that doesn’t mean it can’t make significantly more gains, as we’ve so often seen.”

The Ripple network’s cryptocurrency is wildly volatile. XRP soared and crashed in early February when a Reddit-organized buy-and-hold scheme appeared to fall apart after the price touched $0.74.

Read More: The CIO of a $700 million crypto asset manager breaks down why Elon Musk’s gradual acceptance of bitcoin means the digital currency has room to run – and shares why it’s launching an over-the-counter fund

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Dow Jones Futures: Market Rally Wobbles As Tilray Leads Climax Stocks; Bull Case For Tesla Stock Retreat

Dow Jones futures edged higher late Wednesday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The stock market rally wobbled Wednesday, reversing lower intraday before closing narrowly mixed.




X



The Nasdaq remains somewhat extended, while climax-type stocks Tilray (TLRY), Futu Holdings (FUTU), Digital Turbine (APPS), EXP World Holdings (EXPI) and ExOne (XONE) were big movers Wednesday.

Tesla (TSLA) fell significantly as Bitcoin retreated, but could the electric-vehicle maker be in the early stages of creating a new buying opportunity? As for the Bitcoin price, it fell modestly Wednesday but the power-hungry cryptocurrency is still holding onto much of Monday big gain from Tesla’s Bitcoin buy disclosure.

Meanwhile, Nvidia (NVDA) stood out once again, shrugging off the stock market rally’s intraday retreat. After months of lackluster action and one-day pops, Nvidia stock seems to be making a more meaningful move, clearing a flat base Wednesday.

Uber Technologies (UBER), tax software maker Avalara (AVLR), Spirit Airlines (SAVE), real estate info play Zillow (Z) and pet insurer Trupanion (TRUP) were among the notable earnings reports. Avalara stock might test a cup-base buy point on Thursday.


Why You Should Take Profits In This IBD Stock Of The Day


Big Moves For Wild Stocks

A growing number of stocks are showing climax-type runs. On Wednesday, Tilray stock skyrocketed 51% to 63.91 in massive volume as Reddit investors rush into cannabis stocks. TLRY stock is now 117% above its 10-day moving average. Traditionally 20% was a sign that a stock was likely to have a pullback. In the current market, 40% or more has often been the trigger. But Tilray stock was still rising sharply overnight.

Hong Kong brokerage Futu rallied 7% to 165.24, but came way off an intraday high of 204.25. It’s 36% above its 10-day line. Meanwhile, EXPI stock tumbled 15% to 136.34, nearing its 10-day line intraday. APPS stock sank 3.5% while XONE stock skidded 16.5%.

Tesla stock and Nvidia are on IBD Leaderboard. Nvidia stock is also on SwingTrader.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures rose 0.1% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed about 0.1%.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.


Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live.


Coronavirus News

Coronavirus cases worldwide reached 107.81 million. Covid-19 deaths topped 2.36 million.

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. have hit 27.88 million, with deaths above 482,000. New coronavirus cases and hospitalization levels continue to fall sharply, while deaths also are declining. Vaccinations are continuing, with the likelihood of increased supply and more vaccine options within a few weeks. The big concern is the spread of the more-contagious Covid variant first detected in the U.K.

Stock Market Rally Wednesday

The stock market rally opened higher, fell back and ultimately closed narrowly mixed.

Fed chief Jerome Powell briefly helped buoy stocks Wednesday afternoon as he once again reiterated his support for aggressive monetary policy to support the economy. He says there’s no reason to even think about reining in support until the pandemic is over.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% in Wednesday’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index closed fractionally lower. The Nasdaq composite lost 0.25%.

Growth stocks also were mixed.

Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) dipped 0.1%, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) fell 0.8%.  The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) edged down 0.3%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose 0.3%, with Nvidia stock a notable component.

Tesla Stock

Tesla stock fell 5.3% to 804.82, undercutting its 21-day exponential moving average. Tesla is retreating after Monday’s slim gain as the EV maker disclosed it bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin. But a pullback or extended pause could give investors something they haven’t had with Tesla stock in nearly three months: a buying opportunity.

Tesla stock is just 4.9% above its 10-week line. If shares could fall to the 10-week or move sideways and wait for the 10-week to catch up, a rebound would offer a chance to start or add to a TSLA stock position. That also could be the start of a new base, with an additional buying opportunity.

But, all of that is hypothetical. Right now, Tesla stock is not at its 10-week line and is not rebounding.

Tesla missed on fourth-quarter earnings after (slightly) missing its 2020 delivery target. EV competition is soaring while chip shortages are a major wild card for Tesla and the entire auto industry.

Setting aside company challenges, Tesla stock has been on a long, huge run going back to the coronavirus crash or even late 2019. It’s quite possible that TSLA stock will take an extended pause or correction. Much of that will have to do with the market.

Nvidia Stock

Nvidia stock rose 3.5% to 590.57, moving above a 587.76 flat-base buy point and clearing the Sept. 2 all-time high, according to MarketSmith analysis. That follows Monday’s 6.2% jump, clearing a 560.07 early entry that might have been the place to start a position.

The relative strength line for Nvidia stock is starting to pick up, but is well off its early November peak. The RS line, the blue line in the charts provided, tracks a stock’s performance vs. the S&P 500 index.

Stock Market Rally Analysis

Wednesday’s stock market action was reminiscent of Jan. 25, when the Nasdaq opened at record highs, sold off sharply, but rallied for modest gains. That presaged notable selling later in the week. Wednesday’s action was less volatile, but more growth names had losses like Tesla stock than gains like Nvidia.

As then, the Nasdaq has been extended from the 50-day line. After closing 8.1% above its 50-day line on Monday and 7.9% on Tuesday, the Nasdaq is still 7.4% above that key level.

That means the risk of a stock market rally pullback remains elevated, though it doesn’t have to happen right away or be that fierce.

Still, the Nasdaq is extended, a growing number of stocks are climax-type moves, while investors are increasingly leveraged and more and more novices are jumping into GameStop (GME), Bitcoin or other highly speculative investments. There’s definitely froth in the market right now.


Breakout Watch: 5G, IoT Trends Drive This Chip Stock Into Buy Zone


What To Do Now

Investors may want to consider selling into strength, especially with greatly extended stocks. Don’t suffer losing stocks in this environment. Consider getting off margin.

If the stock market rally has a modest pullback in the near future, you’ll want buying power to take advantage of opportunities as strength returns. If the market rally falls into a correction, you’ll be glad you took some profits near the top.

So have a game plan for your holdings. What will you do if your stocks hit certain levels? If you have an exit strategy in place, you’ll be able to deal with market fluctuations without panic selling or freezing.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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Elon Musk’s love-in with China may be over as regulators go after Tesla

The electric carmaker has been summoned by five Chinese regulatory agencies to answer questions about the quality of its Shanghai-made Model 3 cars, according to a statement released Monday by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR). It said regulators were concerned about several problems with the cars, including “abnormal acceleration” and “battery fires.”

The meeting is troubling for Tesla. Thanks to Musk’s courting of officials, Tesla had managed to avoid cumbersome restraints imposed on global rivals trying to do business in China. The company opened one of its massive car factories in 2019 to great fanfare in Shanghai, and the country now accounts for a fifth of its revenue.

But for the past few weeks, Tesla has been heavily criticized within China for a series of problems involving its cars, culminating in Monday’s announcement.

“[We will] deeply reflect on the company’s operational shortcomings and comprehensively strengthen self-inspection,” Tesla said in a statement posted on Chinese social media website Weibo in response to SAMR’s remarks.

“We will strictly abide by Chinese laws and regulations and always respect consumer rights,” the carmaker said, adding that it will “better contribute to the healthy development of China’s new energy vehicle market.”

It’s not clear whether regulators intend to punish Tesla or change anything about the way it operates in the country. But the controversy is a sign of just how seriously Beijing takes regulation, even among companies that it appears to favor.

“It’s a slippery slope for Musk,” said Dan Ives, a technology analyst at Wedbush Securities. The CEO “had built strong relationships within the country, but he must play nice in the sandbox in China.”

Strong support

Tesla has been in China since 2013, but in the past few years it has established a strong relationship with the Chinese government.

When the carmaker was negotiating terms with authorities in 2017 for the construction of its Shanghai Gigafactory, it managed to retain complete control — an unusual arrangement, since its peers were typically required to partner with Chinese firms if they wanted to set up a local business at that time. (China announced in 2018 that it would ease up on the automotive sector’s rules on foreign ownership by 2022.)

Since then, Tesla has enjoyed strong government support. It was the only foreign manufacturer without a local partner to win a big tax break for its cars in 2019. The company also resumed production quickly during the coronavirus pandemic in part thanks to local government support.
Musk has also won over authorities and Chinese citizens alike, and is a welcomed guest in the country. He famously danced on stage during the debut of the Shanghai-made Model 3 early last year, which went viral on Weibo. Premier Li Keqiang once even said he would be happy to give Musk a “China green card” after the American entrepreneur said he “loves China very much.”
Tesla’s inroads into China have paid off. The company sold $6.66 billion worth of cars in China last year, contributing 21% of its revenue, according to a recent company filing. That’s more than doubled what it sold in 2019, when it had not yet started making cars there.

A souring perception

But in recent months, the perception of Tesla in China has begun to turn sour. Last November, state news agency Xinhua attacked the company after one of its attorneys wrote to US regulators about a recall in China, blaming “driver abuse.”
“Tesla passed the buck to the Chinese users’ driving habits and regulatory pressure,” wrote Xinhua’s Nan Chen in an opinion piece published in Liaowang, a magazine run by the news agency. “This kind of ‘Tesla-style arrogance’ can’t be tolerated.”
Criticism escalated last month after a video went viral in China that appeared to show a Tesla employee telling a customer that an overload in the state power grid caused a charging accident that damaged the car. A local branch of the power company in charge of the grid denied it was to blame, and told Tesla that it should “carefully find out the cause” of the car’s problems.
Tesla wrote on its Weibo account last week that the video had been edited and that the employee provided “several possible factors” for the car’s issues. Even so, the company apologized.

“We are deeply sorry, regarding the misunderstanding caused to netizens and the trouble” caused to power authorities, the company said.

State media outlets, though, piled on after the power grid incident. Xinhua earlier this month blasted Tesla once more for its “arrogant attitude,” accusing the company of “passing the buck again.”

The Global Times, a state-owned tabloid, also took the company to task.

“Though Tesla is arguably the US company most active in investing in China, the Silicon Valley-born carmaker is far from understanding Chinese consumers, as seen by its attitude in a series of scattered accident reports including explosions, drivers losing control and faulty brakes,” read an article published by the Global Times.

Other challenges

Regulatory pressure is not Tesla’s only challenge in China moving forward.

The company was the best-selling electric vehicle brand in the country last year, with 135,400 Model 3s sold, according to the China Passenger Car Association.

But competition is getting fierce. BYD unseated Tesla as China’s top selling electric car brand last month, and other automakers like Nio, Geely and Xpeng are trying to close in.

While China has welcomed Tesla so far, experts point out that ultimately Beijing has its own ambitions to lead in tech and other fields. In other words: Once homegrown companies are competitive, the country doesn’t have much need for foreign firms anymore.

— CNN’s Beijing bureau contributed to this report.

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