Tag Archives: Taiwan

Telling the Truth About Possible War Over Taiwan

January 29, 2023 Admin Leave a comment

Soldiers rush after alighting from an assault amphibious vehicle during a military drill in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, Jan. 12.

Photo:

Daniel Ceng/Associated Press

Honesty is not the default policy in Washington these days, so the political and media classes were jolted this weekend by the leak of a private warning by a U.S. general telling his troops to prepare for a possible war with China over Taiwan in two years. Imagine: A warrior telling his troops to be ready for war.

In an internal memo leaked to NBC News, Gen. Michael Minihan told his troops: “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025.” The general runs the Air Mobility Command, the Air Force’s tank-refueling operation, and he says in his memo that he wants his force to be “ready to fight and win in the first island chain” off the eastern coast of continental Asia. He called for taking more calculated risks in training.

The general’s document won’t be remembered for subtlety. One of his suggestions is that airmen with weapons qualifications start doing target practice with “unrepentant lethality.” Another tells airmen to get their affairs in order. This candor seems to have alarmed higher-ups at the Pentagon, and NBC quoted an unidentified Defense official as saying the general’s “comments are not representative of the department’s view on China.”

But while Gen. Minihan’s words may be blunt, his concern is broadly shared, or ought to be. U.S. Navy Adm.

Phil Davidson

told Congress in 2021 that he worried China was “accelerating their ambitions to supplant the United States,” and could strike Taiwan before 2027. Gen. Minihan came to his post after a tour as deputy of Indo-Pacific Command. He like many others suggested that 2025 may be a ripe moment for Chinese President

Xi Jinping

to move. Taiwan and the U.S. both have presidential elections in 2024 that China may see as moments of weakness.

No less than Secretary of State

Antony Blinken

said last year that Beijing was “determined to pursue reunification” with Taiwan “on a much faster timeline” than it had previously contemplated. Are war-fighters supposed to ignore that message as they prepare for their risky missions?

Gen. Minihan is doing his troops a favor by speaking directly about a war they might have to fight. A recent war game conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned that, in a conflict over Taiwan, “the scale of casualties” would “stagger a U.S. military that has dominated battlefields for a generation.” Gen. Minihan’s boom operators are accustomed to working in skies the U.S. controls. Tankers would be essential in a fight for Taiwan given the vast distance over the Pacific—and would be vulnerable to heavy losses.

Former naval officer

Seth Cropsey

explained on these pages last week that America isn’t investing in the ships and weapons stockpiles that would be required to support a long war in the Western Pacific. Such yawning gaps in U.S. preparedness make a decision by Beijing to invade or blockade the democratic island more likely. Preventing a war for Taiwan requires showing Beijing that the U.S. has the means and the will to fight and repel an invasion.

Whatever his rhetorical flourishes, Gen. Minihan seems to understand this, and what Americans should really worry about is that some of his political and military superiors don’t.

Journal Editorial Report: Paul Gigot interviews General Jack Keane. Images: Zuma Press/Polish Defense Ministry via AP Composite: Mark Kelly

Appeared in the January 30, 2023, print edition as ‘Telling the Truth About War Over Taiwan.’

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Business

Australia PMI, Japan Jibun Flash PMI, Lunar New Year holidays

January 24, 2023 Admin Leave a comment

New Zealand’s Auckland airport passenger volumes hit 74% of pre-pandemic levels in November

New Zealand’s Auckland Airport saw its total passenger volumes for November reach 74% of levels seen in the financial year to June 2019, or the last full-year not impacted by the pandemic, according to the airport’s monthly traffic update.

International passengers were at 67% of pre-pandemic levels, the release said, adding that a majority of the recovered overseas travel was short-haul flights from Australia and the Pacific Islands.

The demand for routes between New Zealand and North American regions has recovered to 86% of pre-pandemic levels, including two added destinations in Texas (Dallas/Fort Worth) and New York.

— Jihye Lee

CNBC Pro: These 6 low-debt global stocks are set to outperform, Bernstein says

Rising interest rates have major implications for companies with large amounts of debt, as they will likely experience higher costs from increased borrowing.

As interest rates continue to rise, analysts at Bernstein think that stocks with low debt exposure and a higher quality of debt should outperform.

The investment bank named a handful of global low-debt stocks with an investment-grade credit rating there likely to outperform.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Ganesh Rao

Shares of Zip reverses after initial rally

Australian “buy now, pay later” company Zip fell by more than 10% after a short-lived rally following its quarterly results.

Zip traded 15% lower, a sharp turnaround from its earlier gains of more than 10% after posting 12% revenue growth.

The company said underlying “monthly cash burn has continued to decrease and expected to further improve.” It said currently available cash and liquidity position is “sufficient to see the company through to generating positive cash flow” and expects to deliver positive cash EBITDA by the first half of fiscal 2024.

Week ahead: PMIs, Australia and Singapore inflation reports, South Korea GDP

Here are some of the major economic events in the Asia-Pacific that investors will be closely watching this week.

Stock markets in mainland China and Taiwan will remain closed until they resume trade on Jan. 30.

On Tuesday, regional purchasing managers’ index readings for Japan and Australia will be in focus while most markets remain closed to observe the Lunar New Year — with the exception of Australia, Japan and Indonesia.

Inflation reports will be in focus on Wednesday as Australia and New Zealand release their consumer price index readings for the final quarter of 2022. Singapore will publish its inflation print for December.

Hong Kong’s market is scheduled to resume trade on Thursday.

Fourth-quarter gross domestic product for South Korea and Philippines will be published Thursday, while the Bank of Japan will release its summary of opinions from its latest monetary policy meeting in January. Japan also reports its services producer price index on Thursday.

Japan’s core CPI readings for capital Tokyo will be a barometer for where monetary policy is headed.

Australia’s producer price index and trade data will also be closely monitored indicators ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting in the first week of February.

— Jihye Lee

Australia’s business conditions worsened last month: NAB survey

National Australia Bank’s monthly business survey showed worsened business conditions for December with a reading of 12 points, a decline from November’s print of 20 points.

The survey reflects deteriorated trading conditions, profitability, and employment, NAB said.

“The main message from the December monthly survey is that the growth momentum has slowed significantly in late 2022 while price and purchase cost pressures have probably peaked,” NAB chief economist Alan Oster said.

Meanwhile, business confidence in December rose by 3 points to -1, an improved reading from -4 points seen in November.

— Jihye Lee

Japan’s headline factory data shows second month of contraction

The au Jibun Bank Flash Japan manufacturing purchasing managers’ index in January was unchanged for a second-straight month at 48.9, below the 50-mark that separates contraction and growth from the previous month.

The reading “signaled the joint-strongest deterioration in the health [of] the Japanese manufacturing sector since October 2020,” S&P Global said.

The au Jibun Bank flash composite output index rose to 50.8 in January, slightly higher than the reading of 49.7 seen in December.

Flash services business activity rose further with a print of 52.4, higher than December’s reading of 51.1.

— Jihye Lee

CNBC Pro: Wall Street is excited about Chinese tech — and loves one mega-cap stock

After more than 2 years of regulatory crackdowns and a pandemic-induced slump, Chinese tech names are back on Wall Street’s radar, with one stock in particular standing out as a top pick for many.

Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Zavier Ong

Fed likely to discuss next week when to halt hikes, Journal report says

Federal Reserve officials next week are almost certain to approve another deceleration in interest rate hikes while also discussing when to stop the increases altogether, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is set to convene Jan. 31-Feb. 1, with markets pricing in almost a 100% chance of a quarter-point increase in the central bank’s benchmark rate. Most prominently, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Friday he sees a 0.25 percentage point increase as the preferred move for the upcoming meeting.

However, Waller said he doesn’t think the Fed is done tightening yet, and several other central bankers in recent days have backed up that notion.

The Journal report, citing public statements from policymakers, said slowing the pace of hikes could provide the chance to assess what impact the increases so far are having on the economy. A series of rate hikes begun in March 2022 has resulted in increases of 4.25 percentage points.

Market pricing is currently indicating quarter-point hikes at the next two meetings, a period of no action, and then up to a half-point reduction by the end of 2023, according to CME Group data.

However, several officials, including Governor Lael Brainard and New York Fed President John Williams, have used the expression “stay the course” to describe the future policy path.

— Jeff Cox

Nasdaq on pace for back-to-back gains as tech shares rise

The Nasdaq Composite rallied more than 2.2% during midday trading Monday, lifted by shares of beaten-up technology stocks.

The move put the tech-heavy index on pace for a consecutive day of gains exceeding 2%. The index finished 2.66% higher on Friday.

Rising semiconductor stocks helped pushed the index higher. Tesla and Apple, meanwhile, surged 7.7% and 3.2%, respectively, as China reopening lifted hopes of a boost to their businesses. Western Digital and Advanced Micro Devices rose about 8% each, while Qualcomm and Nvidia jumped about 7%.

Information technology was the best-performing S&P 500 sector, gaining 2.7%. That was in part due to gains within chip sector. Communication services added 1.9%, boosted by the likes of Netflix, Meta Platforms, Alphabet and Match Group.

— Samantha Subin

El-Erian says Fed should hike by 50 basis points, calls smaller increase a ‘mistake’

Surging inflation may appear largely in the past, but a shift to a 25 basis point hike at the next Federal Reserve policy meeting is a “mistake,” according to Allianz Chief Economic Adviser Mohamed El-Erian.

“‘I’m in a very, very small camp who thinks that they should not downshift to 25 basis points, they should do 50,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday. “They should take advantage of this growth window we’re in, they should take advantage of where the market is, and they should try to tighten financial conditions because I do think that we still have an inflation issue.”

Inflation, he said, has shifted from the goods to the services sector, but could very well resurge if energy prices rise as China reopens.

El-Erian expects inflation to plateau around 4%. This, he said, will put the Fed in a difficult position as to whether they should continue crushing the economy to reach 2%, or promise that level in the future and hope investors can tolerate a steady 3% to 4% nearer term.

“That’s probably the best outcome,” he said of the latter.

— Samantha Subin

An earnings recession is imminent, according to Morgan Stanley

An earnings recession is imminent this year, according to Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson.

“Our view has not changed as we expect the path of earnings in the US to disappoint both consensus expectations and current valuations,” he said in a note to clients Sunday.

Some positive developments have unfolded recent weeks — such as China’s ongoing reopening and falling natural gas prices in Europe — and contributed to some investors viewing market prospects more optimistically.

However, Wilson advises investors to remain bearish on equities, citing price action as the main influence for this year’s rally.

“The rally this year has been led by low-quality and heavily shorted stocks,” he said. “It’s also witnessed a strong move in cyclical stocks relative to defensives.”

Wilson has based his forecasts on margin disappointment, and he believes the case for this is growing. Many industries are already facing revenue slowdowns, as well as inventory bloating, less productive headcount.

“It’s simply a matter of timing and magnitude,” said Wilson. “We advise investors to stay focused on fundamentals and ignore the false signals and misleading reflections in this bear market hall of mirrors.”

— Hakyung Kim

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World

Taiwan ex-conscripts say they feel unprepared for potential China conflict

January 21, 2023 Admin Leave a comment

Taipei, Taiwan
CNN
—

Rising concerns over increasingly aggressive military maneuvers by China have prompted Taiwan to extend the mandatory military service period most of its young men must serve. But former conscripts interviewed by CNN say Taipei will need to do far more than that if it is to make the training effective.

Outdated, boring and impractical. That was the verdict of six young men who spoke to CNN about their recent experiences of mandatory service in Taiwan’s military.

They describe a process that was designed decades ago with a heavy emphasis on bayonet training, but lacking instruction in urban warfare strategies or modern weapons like drones. Some say there were too few rifles to go around, or that the weapons they trained with were too old to be of use. Others recount “specializing” in cannon, grenade and mortar units, but never receiving any ammunition to train with.

Their criticisms come at a crucial time for Taiwan’s military. President Tsai Ing-wen announced recently that the period of mandatory service for men born in or after 2005 will be extended from four months to a year, saying that the present system “no longer suits the needs” of the island’s defense. The military says the rethink follows comparisons to the militaries of other democratic jurisdictions that have longer conscription periods – such as South Korea (18-21 months), Singapore (24 months) and Israel (24-30 months).

Strengthening the island’s military has become a key concern for Tsai, who has spoken of the need to highlight Taiwan’s determination to defend itself amid increasingly aggressive noises from Beijing. The ruling Chinese Communist Party claims the self-governing democracy of 23.5 million people as part of its territory, despite never having controlled it, and has sent record numbers of air and sea patrols to harass it since former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited in August. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has repeatedly refused to rule out the use of force to “reunify” the island with mainland China.

“No one wants war,” Tsai said in announcing the lengthening of mandatory service periods in December. “This is true of Taiwan’s government and people, and the global community, but peace does not come from the sky, and Taiwan is at the front lines of the expansion of authoritarianism.”

But former conscripts are skeptical, telling CNN the problems with mandatory military service go beyond the short time frame and will only be fixed by a more thorough revamp.

Tsai herself has acknowledged that many citizens feel serving in the military is “just a waste of time.”

“In our company, we had more than 100 assault rifles, but only slightly more than a dozen could be used for shooting practices,” said Frank Liu, a 26-year-old auditor from the central Changhua county who served in 2021. He said about 140 conscripts received training in his company.

“A lot of those assault rifles were made many decades ago, and many were too worn out to be used in training. The weapons had to be rotated among ourselves.”

Paul Lee, a factory manager from Taipei who served in 2018, had a similar experience.

“We didn’t fire many rounds during the military training,” Lee said. “I was practicing with the T65 assault rifle, and I only shot about 40 rounds during the entire training period.

“I’m concerned that many people who underwent the training with me won’t even be able to operate a rifle with confidence.”

Under the current rules, the four-month service period is normally divided into two parts: five weeks of basic training, and 11 weeks of ground training at a military base.

During the ground training period, conscripts are often assigned specialties – but even then some say they receive only the most cursory of insights.

Dennis, a 25-year-old engineer from Taichung city who served last year, said while he was assigned to specialize in cannons, he never learned how to fire them because trainers were worried the recruits might get hurt. He asked only to be identified by his first name because he remains a reservist.

“We were assigned simple tasks, and we spent most of the time helping with cleaning and washing the cannon carts,” he said. “If war breaks out today and I am told to work as an artilleryman, I think I will just become cannon fodder.”

Adam Yu, a 27-year-old designer from the northern Keelung city who served in 2018 and specialized in mortars and grenade launchers, said while he had been shown how to prepare the weapons, he had never been given any ammunition or practiced firing them.

“I’m not sure if I can even operate those weapons,” said Yu, adding, “I still don’t know how those weapons are supposed to be used in the battlefield.”

That sentiment was echoed by another former conscript surnamed Liu. The 28-year-old salesman specialized in data processing with the air force and received training in the southern Pingtung county in 2015. He too asked for his first name to be withheld, saying he may still be called upon for additional reservist training.

“Our commanders barely taught anything during our ground training, because they felt we would only be here for a few months and it wouldn’t make much of a difference for them,” he said.

Taiwan has a professional volunteer military force that as of last year was made up of 162,000 full-time troops, according to a report by the Legislative Yuan. On top of this, an estimated 70,000 men complete a period of mandatory military service every year.

Conscripts must undergo a period of physical training and are taught to shoot rifles and use bayonets.

Several of those who spoke to CNN questioned the amount of time spent on bayonet training, arguing it was outdated, although some militaries continue to teach it in recruitment training programs.

“I think bayonet training was just a waste of time, because I really couldn’t think how we could put that into practice,” Frank Liu said.

“Just look at the Russia-Ukraine war, there are so many types of weapons used. When does a soldier ever have to resort to a bayonet to attack their enemy? I think that was really outdated.”

Yu, from Keelung, said his commanders had put huge emphasis on bayonet training because it made up part of the end-of-term examination.

“We were ordered to memorize a series of slogans,” he said. “When we were practicing bayonet, we were required to follow the instructions of the squad leader with a specific chant for each movement, and we had to repeat it in the exam.”

Some of these criticisms were acknowledged, tacitly or otherwise, when Tsai announced the lengthening of the conscription period and in the subsequent news briefing by the Defense Ministry in early January.

The ministry said that when the new policy begins in 2024, all conscripts will shoot at least 800 rounds during their service, and they will be trained with new weapons such as anti-tank missiles and drones. Bayonet training will be modified to include other forms of close combat training, it added, and conscripts may also participate in joint military drills with professional soldiers. Meanwhile, basic training will rise from five to eight weeks.

Su Tzu-yun, a director of Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, which is funded by the government, said he is confident the reform will boost the island’s combat capabilities.

He also thinks there is value in keeping bayonet training in the curriculum.

“It helps boost a soldier’s courage and aggressiveness,” he said. “If soldiers engage in a mission that is not suitable for firing weapons, they may also use bayonet as an alternative option.”

Su added that while modern weapons will be included in the new training curriculum, it would be impractical for every soldier to practice firing them because this would simply be too costly.

“In the US, the training of Javelin [anti-tank missiles] is conducted through simulation, because each missile costs $70,000 and it is not possible for everyone to fire them,” he said. “Usually, the whole unit finishes the simulation, then the commander will pick a few soldiers to practice firing it.”

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said in a statement to CNN that it has invited experts to numerous academic seminars on reforming the conscription system, and that it accepted many of their suggestions to boost training intensity.

Even so, not everyone’s convinced.

“I don’t think the lengthening of service alone will lead to better national defense,” said Lin Ying-yu, an assistant professor at Tamkang University’s Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies.

He said the “more important questions” involved clarifying in detail the type of training new conscripts would receive.

And on this point, the former conscripts who spoke to CNN remain skeptical.

“When I saw they wanted to add drones to the training, my question was – are we going to have one drone per person and multiple chances to practice flying it?” Yu said.

“If they stick to their old way of teaching, they will just tell us to follow their instructions and memorize its weight and flight distance, and we will not be able to operate it.”

The fear for conscripts is that the new form of mandatory service might end up looking pretty much like the old form, only longer.

“During my service, most of the time we were just asked to perform tedious tasks like moving weapons around to show our commanders, and we spent a lot of time waiting,” said Dennis, the engineer.

It remains to be seen if conscripts’ time will be spent more fruitfully when the new rules come in next year, but all sides agree the stakes are high.

“Active citizens are the foundation and the bedrock of our will to resist,” said Enoch Wu, founder of the civil defense think tank Forward Alliance and a member of Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party.

“If the public decides our home is not worth fighting for – or that we don’t stand a chance – then you can have the most professional military and it will still be too little too late.”

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World

US, Chinese officials discuss climate, economy, relationship

January 18, 2023 Admin Leave a comment

ZURICH (AP) — U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen met on Wednesday with her Chinese counterpart and pledged an effort to manage differences and “prevent competition from becoming anything ever near conflict” as the two nations try to thaw relations.

Yellen’s first face-to-face meeting with Vice Premier Liu He in Zurich is the highest-ranking contact between the two countries since their presidents agreed last November during their first in-person meeting to look for areas of potential cooperation.

Liu said he was ready to work together to seek common ground between China and the U.S. “No matter how circumstances change, we should always maintain dialogue and exchanges,” he said.

A U.S. Treasury readout of their meeting says the two agreed that the U.S. and China would cooperate more on issues around financing for battling climate change and would work to support “developing countries in their clean energy transitions.” The readout also indicates that Yellen plans to travel to China and welcomes her counterparts to the U.S. in the near future.

The meeting comes as the U.S. and Chinese economies grapple with differing but intertwined challenges on trade, technology and more.

Yellen, in opening remarks in front of reporters, told Liu: “While we have areas of disagreement, and we will convey them directly, we should not allow misunderstandings, particularly those stemming from a lack of communication, to unnecessarily worsen our bilateral economic and financial relationship.”

Liu said that China and the U.S. need to communicate and coordinate earnestly, Chinese broadcaster Phoenix TV reported. He said both sides must look at the bigger picture, try to manage disputes properly and work together to maintain stability in relations, the broadcaster said in an online report.

Yellen said the two countries “have a responsibility to manage our differences and prevent competition from becoming anything even near conflict.”

Both economies have their challenges.

The Chinese economy is reopening after a COVID-19 resurgence killed tens of thousands of people and shuttered countless businesses. The U.S. is slowly recovering from 40-year-high inflation and is on track to hit its statutory debt ceiling, setting up an expected political showdown between congressional Democrats and Republicans. The debt issue is of keen interest to Asia, as China is the second-largest holder of U.S. debt.

There is also the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which hinders global economic growth — and has prompted the U.S. and its allies to agree on an oil price cap on Russia in retaliation, putting China in a difficult spot as a friend and economic ally of Russia.

And high interest rates globally have increased pressure on debt-burdened nations that owe great sums to China.

“A wrong policy move or a reversal in the positive data and we could see the global economy head into a recession in 2023,” said Josh Lipsky, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. “Both countries have a shared interest in avoiding that scenario.”

The World Bank reported last week that the global economy will come “perilously close” to a recession this year, led by weaker growth in all the world’s top economies — including the U.S. and China. Low-income countries are expected to suffer from any economic downturns of superpowers, the report said.

“High on the list is debt restructuring,” Lipsky said of Wednesday’s talks. Several low-income countries are at risk of debt default in 2023 and many of them owe large sums to China.

“Leaders have been trying for two years to get some agreement and avoid a wave of defaults but there’s been little success and one reason is China’s hesitancy. I expect Yellen to press Liu He on this in the meeting,” Lipsky said.

Liu laid out an optimistic vision for the world’s second-largest economy in an address Tuesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

“If we work hard enough, we are confident that in 2023, China’s growth will most likely return to its normal trend. The Chinese economy will see a significant improvement,” he said.

After her stop in Switzerland, Yellen will travel to Zambia, Senegal and South Africa this week in what will be the first in a string of visits by Biden administration officials to sub-Saharan Africa during the year.

Zambia is renegotiating its nearly $6 billion debt with China, its biggest creditor. During a closed-door meeting at the Africa Leaders Summit in Washington in December, Yellen and Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema discussed “the need to address debt sustainability and the imperative to conclude a debt treatment for Zambia,” according to Yellen.

The Zurich talks are a follow-up to the November meeting between President Joe Biden and China’s Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. The two world leaders agreed to empower key senior officials to work on areas of potential cooperation, including tackling climate change and maintaining global financial, health and food stability. Beijing had cut off such contacts with the U.S. in protest of then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan in August.

“We’re going to compete vigorously. But I’m not looking for conflict,” Biden said at the time.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be traveling to China in early February.

Among economic sticking points, the Biden administration blocked the sale of advanced computer chips to China and is considering a ban on investment in some Chinese tech companies, possibly undermining a key economic goal that Xi set for his country. Statements by the Democratic president that the U.S. would defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion also have increased tensions.

And while the U.S. Congress is divided on many issues, members of the House agreed last week to further scrutinize Chinese investments.

New House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., has identified the Communist Party of China as one of two “long-term challenges” for the House, along with the national debt.

“There is bipartisan consensus that the era of trusting Communist China is over,” McCarthy said from the House floor last week when the House voted 365 to 65 — with 146 Democrats joining Republicans — to establish the House Select Committee on China.

Last year, the U.S. Commerce Department added dozens of Chinese high-tech companies, including makers of aviation equipment, chemicals and computer chips, to an export controls blacklist, citing concerns over national security, U.S. interests and human rights. That move prompted the Chinese to file a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization.

Yellen has been critical of China’s trade practices and its relationship with Russia, as the two countries have deepened their economic ties since the start of the war in Ukraine last February. On a July call with Liu, Yellen talked “frankly” about the impact of the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the global economy and “unfair, non-market” economic practices, according to a U.S. recap of the call.

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World

US and Japan to strengthen military relationship with upgraded Marine unit in attempt to deter China

January 11, 2023 Admin Leave a comment

CNN
—

The US and Japan are set to announce a significant strengthening of their military relationship and upgrading of the US military’s force posture in the country this week, including the stationing of a newly redesignated Marine unit with advanced intelligence, surveillance capabilities and the ability to fire anti-ship missiles, according to two US officials briefed on the matter.

The announcement sends a strong signal to China and will come as part of a series of initiatives designed to underscore a rapid acceleration of security and intelligence ties between the countries.

The news is expected to be announced on Wednesday as US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken meet with their Japanese counterparts in Washington. The officials are coming together as part of the annual US-Japan Security Consultative Committee meeting, days before President Joe Biden plans to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the White House.

The newly revamped Marine unit will be based on Okinawa and is intended to bolster deterrence against Chinese aggression in a volatile region and provide a stand-in force that is able to defend Japan and quickly respond to contingencies, the officials said. Okinawa is viewed as key to the US military’s operations in the Pacific – in part because of its close proximity to Taiwan. It houses more than 25,000 US military personnel and more than two dozen military installations. Roughly 70% of the US military bases in Japan are on Okinawa; one island within the Okinawa Prefecture, Yonaguni, sits less than 70 miles from Taiwan, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

It is one of the most significant adjustments to US military force posture in the region in years, one official said, underscoring the Pentagon’s desire to shift from the wars of the past in the Middle East to the region of the future in the Indo-Pacific. The change comes as simulated war games from a prominent Washington think tank found that Japan, and Okinawa in particular, would play a critical role in a military conflict with China, providing the United States with forward deployment and basing options.

“I think it is fair to say that, in my view, 2023 is likely to stand as the most transformative year in US force posture in the region in a generation,” said Ely Ratner, the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, at the American Enterprise Institute last month.

The news follows the stand-up of the first Marine Littoral Regiment in Hawaii last year, in which the 3rd Marine Regiment in Hawaii became the 3rd Marine Littoral Regiment – a key part of the Marine Corps’ modernization effort outlined in the 2030 Force Design report from Gen. David Berger.

As the service has described them, the Marine Littoral Regiments are a “mobile, low-signature” unit able to conduct strikes, coordinate air and missile defense and support surface warfare.

The Washington Post first reported the soon-to-be-announced changes.

In addition to the restructuring of Marines in the country, the US and Japan will announce on Wednesday that they are expanding their defense treaty to include attacks to or from space, US officials said, amid growing concern about the rapid advancement of China’s space program and hypersonic weapons development.

In November, China launched three astronauts to its nearly completed space station as Beijing looked to establish a long-term presence in space. China has also explored the far side of the moon and Mars.

The two allies will announce that Article V of the US-Japan Security Treaty, first signed in 1951, applies to attacks from or within space, officials said. In 2019, the US and Japan made it clear that the defense treaty applies to cyberspace and that a cyber attack could constitute an armed attack under certain circumstances.

The US has watched closely as China has rapidly developed its hypersonic weapon systems, including one missile in 2021 that circled the globe before launching a hypersonic glider that struck its target. It was a wake-up call for the United States, which has fallen behind China and Russia in advanced hypersonic technology.

The two countries will also build on their joint use of facilities in Japan and carry out more exercises on Japan’s southwest islands, a move sure to draw the ire of Beijing, given its proximity to Taiwan and even mainland China. US officials added that the US will temporarily deploy MQ-9 Reaper drones to Japan for maritime surveillance of the East China Sea, as well as launch a bilateral group to analyze and share the information.

The announcement comes less than a month after Japan unveiled a new national security plan that signals the country’s biggest military buildup since World War II, doubling defense spending and veering from its pacifist constitution in the face of growing threats from regional rivals, including China.

China has been growing its naval and air forces in areas near Japan while claiming the Senkaku Islands, an uninhabited Japanese-controlled chain in the East China Sea, as its sovereign territory.

In late December, Japan said Chinese government vessels had been spotted in the contiguous zone around the Senkakus, known as the Diaoyus in China, 334 days in 2022, the most since 2012 when Tokyo acquired some of the islands from a private Japanese landowner, public broadcaster NHK reported. From December 22 to 25, Chinese government vessels spent almost 73 consecutive hours in Japanese territorial waters off the islands, the longest such incursion since 2012, the NHK report said.

China has also been upping its military pressure on Taiwan, the self-governing island, whose security Japanese leaders have said is vital to the security of Japan itself. In August, that pressure included Beijing firing five missiles that landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone near Taiwan in response to the visit of then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei.

Before the announcement of the increased partnership between the US and Japan was even made public, Chinese government officials were reacting to reports in Japanese media.

“US-Japan military cooperation should not harm the interests of any third party or undermine peace and stability in the region,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at a regular press briefing Tuesday in Beijing.

A State Department official explained that the Ukraine war and strengthening of the China-Russia relationship have spurred the US and Japan to come to a series of new agreements that have been under consideration for some time.

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, sort of moved things on warp drive a little bit,” the official said. “The relationship between Putin and Xi Jinping that we saw in the lead up to the Beijing Olympics, that kind of showed, wait a minute, the Russians and the Chinese are working in new ways. We’re facing new challenges.”

And it’s not just the US – Japan and Britain also announced on Wednesday that the two countries would be signing a “historic defense agreement” that would allow them to deploy forces in each other’s countries.

The Reciprocal Access Agreement will allow both forces to plan military exercises and deployments on a larger and more complex scale, making it the “most significant defense agreement between the two countries in more than a century,” according to a statement on Wednesday from Downing Street.

The agreement still needs to be ratified by the respective parliaments before taking effect. It will be laid before Japan’s Diet and the UK Parliament in the coming weeks, according to the statement.

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Taiwan invasion by China would fail, but at huge US cost, analysts’ war game finds | Taiwan

January 10, 2023 Admin Leave a comment

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would probably fail if the United States helped defend the island – but would come at a debilitating cost to the American military itself, according to a US thinktank.

Military experts brought together by the Center for Strategic and International Studies to war game the conflict said every likely direct participant in a war – the United States, China, Taiwan and Japan – would experience “enormous” losses.

Chinese missiles would probably destroy US airbases in Japan and as far as Guam, and sink two US aircraft carriers and between 10 and 20 destroyers and cruisers as the invasion opened.

But the Chinese invading force itself would be destroyed before it ever occupied any significant part of Taiwan and ultimately it would be prevented from its goal of capturing the island’s capital Taipei, according to most scenarios tested.

That, as well as damage incurred on mainland targets from Taiwanese counterattacks, could destabilise Chinese Communist party rule, the report says.

“We reached two conclusions,” said Eric Heginbotham, a security expert at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“First, under most circumstances, China is unlikely to succeed in its operational objectives, or to occupy Taipei,” he said.

“Second, the cost of war would be high for all involved, certainly to include the United States.”

The wargaming tested 24 different scenarios focused on China attempting to seize the island by invasion in 2026. Crucial was the United States: without America’s help, Taiwan would be conquered by the People’s Liberation Army in three months or less.

The war game assumed the invasion would begin with an opening bombardment by China that destroys most of Taiwan’s navy and air force in a few hours. The Chinese navy would encircle Taiwan and begin ferrying a landing force of thousands of PLA soldiers and their equipment across the Taiwan Strait.

In what the war gamers called the most likely scenario, Taiwan’s army would bog the invaders down on the coast.

“Meanwhile US submarines, bombers, and fighter/attack aircraft, often reinforced by Japan Self-Defense Forces, rapidly cripple the Chinese amphibious fleet,” the report said.

“China’s strikes on Japanese bases and US surface ships cannot change the result: Taiwan remains autonomous,” it said.

Matthew Cancian of the US Naval War College said there were crucial variables on which that success depends.

First, he said, Taiwan itself must be determined to fight back.

Secondly, Japan must give its permission for the United States to launch counterattacks from its bases on Japanese territory.

Without that, Cancian said, “then the US intervention would not be enough to continue Taiwan’s autonomy.”

In such cases the human losses would be high, some 10,000 in the first weeks of the war. The war game raised important unknowns, such as whether the United States would risk nuclear war by attacking China directly.

It also asked if the US and Japanese public would be prepared to accept the losses that came with defending Taiwan, saying US losses could damage Washington’s ability to project global power for a very long time.

“The United States might win a pyrrhic victory, suffering more in the long run than the ‘defeated’ Chinese,” the report said.

The report said both Taiwan and the US military need to build up forces, focusing on the most survivable and effective weapons, to create more deterrence to a Chinese invasion.

“Despite rhetoric about adopting a ‘porcupine strategy,’ Taiwan still spends most of its defense budget on expensive ships and aircraft that China will quickly destroy,” it said.