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Flu surged in the United States after Thanksgiving, data shows



CNN
 — 

Flu surged in the United States after Thanksgiving, bringing the most severe week yet in a season that hit the county extra early. More than a third of all flu hospitalizations and deaths so far this season were reported in just the past week, and cases also jumped nearly as much.

New data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that there have been at least 13 million illnesses, 120,000 hospitalizations, and 7,300 deaths from flu so far this season.

The latest update captures data through December 3 and is the first full week of data post-Thanksgiving. It shows that respiratory virus activity remains elevated across the country amid a flu season that hit the country early and hard – and health officials have warned that gathering indoors during the holidays may lead to rising cases.

All but seven states are experiencing “high” or “very high” respiratory virus activity, according to the CDC. States with moderate, low, or minimal activity are Alaska, Hawaii, Michigan, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Vermont and West Virginia.

There have been about 26 flu hospitalizations for every 100,000 people – a rate that hasn’t been this high at this point in the season in more than a decade.

Nearly 26,000 people were admitted to the hospital for flu last week, filling about 6,000 more beds than the week before. About 1 in 4 lab tests were positive for flu last week and nearly 1 in 10 deaths were due to pneumonia, influenza or Covid-19 – well above the epidemic threshold of about 6%.

Data from Walgreens that tracks prescriptions for Tamiflu and other flu treatments suggests that flu hotspots spread from El Paso to southwest Virginia.

Last year’s flu season was relatively mild, but the number of flu illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths that have been reported so far in the current season have already surpassed the total number recorded throughout the entirety of last season.

Hospitals are more full now than they’ve been throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a CNN analysis of data from the US Department of Health and Human Services.

About 80% of hospital beds are in use nationwide, jumping 8 percentage points in the past two weeks.

Hospitals have been required to report capacity information since mid-2020 as part of a federal effort to track the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Hospitals have been more than 70% full for the vast majority of that time. But they’ve been 80% full at only one other point: in January, during the height of the Omicron surge in the US. Back in January, about a quarter of hospital beds were in use for Covid-19 patients. But now, only about 6% of beds are in use for Covid-19 patients, according to the HHS data.

In a statement on Friday, Nancy Foster, vice president for quality and patient safety with the American Hospital Association, says that an influx of flu patients is a key reason why hospitals are filling up, but they’re also facing RSV and illnesses in people who put off care during the pandemic.

“Workforce shortages have not only made it more challenging for hospitals, but also have diminished the number of patients who can be cared for in nursing homes and other post acute care settings,” the statement said. “Thus, patients are spending more time in hospitals, awaiting discharge to the next level of care and limiting our ability to make a bed available to a patient who truly needs to be hospitalized.”

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Flu surged in the United States after Thanksgiving, data shows



CNN
 — 

Flu surged in the United States after Thanksgiving, bringing the most severe week yet in a season that hit the county extra early. More than a third of all flu hospitalizations and deaths so far this season were reported in just the past week, and cases also jumped nearly as much.

New data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that there have been at least 13 million illnesses, 120,000 hospitalizations, and 7,300 deaths from flu so far this season.

The latest update captures data through December 3 and is the first full week of data post-Thanksgiving. It shows that respiratory virus activity remains elevated across the country amid a flu season that hit the country early and hard – and health officials have warned that gathering indoors during the holidays may lead to rising cases.

All but seven states are experiencing “high” or “very high” respiratory virus activity, according to the CDC. States with moderate, low, or minimal activity are Alaska, Hawaii, Michigan, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Vermont and West Virginia.

There have been about 26 flu hospitalizations for every 100,000 people – a rate that hasn’t been this high at this point in the season in more than a decade.

Nearly 26,000 people were admitted to the hospital for flu last week, filling about 6,000 more beds than the week before. About 1 in 4 lab tests were positive for flu last week and nearly 1 in 10 deaths were due to pneumonia, influenza or Covid-19 – well above the epidemic threshold of about 6%.

Data from Walgreens that tracks prescriptions for Tamiflu and other flu treatments suggests that flu hotspots spread from El Paso to southwest Virginia.

Last year’s flu season was relatively mild, but the number of flu illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths that have been reported so far in the current season have already surpassed the total number recorded throughout the entirety of last season.

Hospitals are more full now than they’ve been throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a CNN analysis of data from the US Department of Health and Human Services.

About 80% of hospital beds are in use nationwide, jumping 8 percentage points in the past two weeks.

Hospitals have been required to report capacity information since mid-2020 as part of a federal effort to track the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Hospitals have been more than 70% full for the vast majority of that time. But they’ve been 80% full at only one other point: in January, during the height of the Omicron surge in the US. Back in January, about a quarter of hospital beds were in use for Covid-19 patients. But now, only about 6% of beds are in use for Covid-19 patients, according to the HHS data.

In a statement on Friday, Nancy Foster, vice president for quality and patient safety with the American Hospital Association, says that an influx of flu patients is a key reason why hospitals are filling up, but they’re also facing RSV and illnesses in people who put off care during the pandemic.

“Workforce shortages have not only made it more challenging for hospitals, but also have diminished the number of patients who can be cared for in nursing homes and other post acute care settings,” the statement said. “Thus, patients are spending more time in hospitals, awaiting discharge to the next level of care and limiting our ability to make a bed available to a patient who truly needs to be hospitalized.”

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Why are rents increasing? Rent surged in expensive housing market

Jennifer Fei, 48, has felt the pinch every year. But over the past couple of years, especially, the rental market’s stranglehold on her household budget has been tightening.

She moved into a quaint, two-bedroom duplex in the Sugar House neighborhood of Salt Lake City roughly seven years ago. At the time, her monthly rent was $1,300, which she said seemed like a pretty good deal.

“Over the years, there have always been increases — $100 here, $50 there,” Fei told the Deseret News. When she signed her lease for 2020 to 2021, it went up $150.

Then, for 2022, it shot up $410, she said.

“Just within two years, I saw like a $550 increase in rent,” she said. “So it’s pretty significant.”

Now, Fei says her rent sits at just below $2,000 a month.

Meanwhile, her wages remain stagnant. As a sales representative, Fei said she earns about $60,000 a year. During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, she said she made less as the pandemic took a toll on her commission, which she earns from selling products to retailers and restaurants.

As a single mother of two teenage children who makes what she considers a “decent” income, it’s frustrating that rent would be so expensive for a modest, two-bedroom home — especially considering wages haven’t kept nearly in pace with such rapid price growth.

Still, she feels trapped. Looking around her, in her same neighborhood, Fei has watched prices balloon. The typical two-bedroom apartment in her area “starts at $2,000 a month,” she said. “Most are $2,500 to $3,000 a month, especially in all these new apartments.”

“Who is affording this?” she questioned.

Utah’s median individual income was $31,855 in 2020, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. For households, it was $74,197.

Why are rent prices so high?

As housing prices in Utah and across the nation ramped up to record levels during the pandemic housing frenzy from mid-2020 until early 2022, it’s had an extraordinary impact on the rental market.

If renters — who faced steady, yearly rent hikes even before the pandemic stomped on the accelerator — were having a tough time before, the pressure is only mounting now as the housing market continues to reel from over 6% mortgage rates.

Even before the Federal Reserve’s fight with inflation, rents rose at faster rates over the last two years than they have in the past decade.

Between 2010 and 2020, asking rents ticked up by 2.6% annually. Fast forward to between 2020 and 2022, and rents rose 10.5% annually in that two-year window.

That’s according to a new report published this week by the University of Utah’s Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, penned by Dejan Eskic, a senior research fellow a the institute and one of Utah’s leading housing experts.

By Eskic’s calculations, about 71% of Utah households were priced out of Utah’s median-priced home by the spring of 2022, which crossed the $500,000 mark in February. That figure was even higher in Salt Lake and Utah counties.

As more would-be buyers turn away from the market amid still record high home prices and mortgage rates not seen since 2008, that’s upping the pressure on the rental market.

“The narrowing path to homeownership has increased the demand for rental housing,” Eskic wrote. “Renter households across the Wasatch Front experienced as much rental price growth in two years (between 2020 and 2022) as they did in the prior 10 (between 2010 and 2020).”

As a result, renters trapped between rising rent prices and out-of-reach home prices are stuck, vulnerable to annual rate hikes and potential instability if they’re priced out of their current homes.

How much is rent in Utah?

Out of all four Wasatch Front counties, Salt Lake County saw the largest change in absolute growth in rent, according to the report.

  • In Salt Lake County, the average asking rent grew from $1,213 in early 2020 to $1,534 in the second quarter of 2022, according to the report. That’s a $321 jump — an 11% increase each year, amounting to an over 26.4% hike in two years.

“The two-year increase is greater than the increase of $135 experienced between 2000 and 2010 and the $213 increase between 2010 and 2020,” Eskic wrote.

  • Davis County comes next in line in terms of absolute growth in rent, with an average rent that increased by $294 from $1,158 in early 2020 to $1,452 in 2022. That’s an annual increase of 10.6%.
  • Weber County ranked third in absolute rent growth, with an average rent that went up from $1,091 in early 2020 to $1,380 in 2020, a $289 increase at an annual rate of 11%.
  • Utah County rents increased from $1,213 in 2020 to $1,475 in 2022, an annual rate of 9.1%.

Trapped

Fei wonders how long she can hang on to her current home, seeing downsizing as perhaps her only option at this pace.

“Next year, if my landlord decides to raise rent, I might have to move into a one-bedroom. That’s the reality of my finances,” she said. “If I’m not making more money, I can’t afford to stay here.”

She’s thought about owning, but as a single mother her age and prices being what they are, she doesn’t see that as an option.

“I’m at a point now where I think I am permanently priced out of the market,” Fei said. “I’m old enough, with teenage kids, don’t have enough savings … if I don’t have real estate at this point, at 48 years old, I’m not going to. I mean, to be very honest.”

She questioned how anyone is able to save for a home down payment these days, especially given how fast rent prices have climbed.

“I don’t know how you can save when rent is 40% to 50% of your monthly income,” she said. “If I were in a better financial situation, yeah I’d be looking. But at this point with interest rates and monthly payments, you’re looking at paying as much as rent these days.”

Fei also said her situation could be worse. She said while she’s facing downsizing, other Utahns and their families may be simply priced out of rentals everywhere in the Salt Lake area. It’s not just monthly rental costs, but also deposits — first and last month’s rent — that break the bank.

Fei said that as she was driving down the street the other day, she noticed someone who had a dining table and chairs on a dolly, along with a pile of his stuff next to him.

“These homeless people aren’t homeless because they have, you know, mental health issues or drug issues,” she said. “They’re homeless because they get to a point where they can’t afford where they live, and they have nowhere else to go.”

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US cases of the STDs gonorrhea and syphilis surged to a 30-year high in 2020

Gonorrhea and syphilis cases surged to a 30-year high in the U.S. during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has revealed.

There were 678,000 infections with gonorrhea — which leads to pain urinating and unpleasant discharges from the genitals — detected in 2020, the latest report showed, the highest number since 1990 and up ten percent from the previous year.

For syphilis — a condition that can triggers painful rashes — there were 144,000 cases spotted over the same period, also a record for the last three decades but up just three percent in 12 months.

Total cases of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) hit 2.4 million in 2020, down six percent from the record 2.5 million in 2019. But CDC officials warned total infections were likely still rising, arguing a fall was only recorded because fewer tests were carried out in 2020 as resources were re-directed to fighting COVID-19. 

People in black and American Indian groups had the highest rates of STDs in America, the report showed, while gay and bisexual men had the highest rates of chlamydia. Mississippi had the highest rate of STDs in the country.

Jonathan Merin, the CDC’s director for STD prevention, warned the ‘unrelenting momentum’ of the nation’s STD epidemic continued throughout the first year of the pandemic — even as people limited contacts for fear of catching COVID-19.

It has been suggested that cases of the diseases — spread by vaginal, anal or oral contact — rose because a lack of testing left many infected people unaware they had an STD, leading to them unwittingly passing it on. Rising rates of drug use were also thought to be behind the rise.  

Total cases of STDs in the US had risen for the previous seven years in a row from 1.8million in 2014, also driven by rising levels of drug use alongside poverty and cuts to prevention programs in the country. 

The CDC report found gonorrhea cases have now hit their highest level for 30 years in the US, but officials suggest cases are likely even higher. They say most went unreported, however, because of cuts to testing as resources were redirected to fighting the COVID-19 pandemic

The above graph shows rates of syphilis across the US since 1940. It reveals that total syphilis cases (grey line) have also now risen to their highest level in 30 years, despite disruption triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic

Total cases of STDs — chlamydia, gonorrhea and syphilis — have been trending upwards for the previous seven years in a row. Infections fell in 2020 with 2.4million recorded compared to the previous year, but CDC officials said it was likely that cases had in fact continued to rise but this was not detected due to a drop in testing

The above graph shows the rate of chlamydia cases across the US, the country’s most common STD. Infections fell 12 per cent compared to last year, but CDC officials said this was likely down to a drop in testing for the disease

The CDC’s annual report — called 2020 Sexually Transmitted Disease Surveillance — compiled data from national surveillance systems where each state submits the number of STDs it has detected.

It also used figures collected through surveillance programs including the STD Surveillance Network — which monitors gonorrhea — and the Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project — which monitors rates of antibiotic resistance in gonorrhea. 

What is gonorrhea? What are its symptoms? Can it be treated? 

Gonorrhea is the second most common sexually transmitted disease in the US.

It is a bacterial infection of the genital area, and is spread by having vaginal, oral or anal sex with someone who is also infected.

What are the symptoms?

Warning signs of the infection include:

  • Pain or a burning sensation when urinating;
  • Increased vaginal discharge;
  • White, yellow or green discharge from the penis;
  • Vaginal bleeding between periods;
  • Painful or swollen testicles; 

How is gonorrhea diagnosed?

Doctors test a urine sample to work out whether someone has the bacterial infection.

For those who have oral or anal sex, swabs may also need to be taken from the throat or rectum.

What are the treatment options?

Gonorrhea can easily be treated using antibiotics.

But the CDC warns that everyone must complete their course of this medication, because of the rise of antibiotic resistant strains.

Chlamydia was the most common STD in the US in 2020, with 1.5 million cases detected — or three-fifths of the national total.

Its cases had dipped 12 percent compared to the previous year, but CDC officials said this was likely down to a lack of testing. The report said: ‘The decline in reported chlamydia cases is likely due to decreased STD screening and under-diagnosis during the pandemic, rather than a reduction in new infections.’

Gonorrhea was the second most common STD in the US, followed by syphilis. 

No cases of chancroid — a tropical STD that causes swelling around the genitals — were detected.

Congenital syphilis cases — when the bacteria is found in newborns — rose 14 percent in a year in 2020 to their highest level since 1994, after 2,100 cases were detected. 

Leandro Mena, the director of the CDC’s division of STD prevention, said: ‘The COVID-19 pandemic increased awareness of a reality we’ve long known about STDs.’ 

‘Social and economic factors – such as poverty and health insurance status – create barriers, increase health risks, and often result in worse health outcomes for some people.

‘If we are to make lasting progress against STDs in this country, we have to understand the systems that create inequities and work with partners to change them. No one can be left behind.’

Breaking the CDC data down by ethnic group revealed black people had the highest rates of chlamydia (1,086 cases per 100,000 people), gonorrhea (662.4) and syphilis (34.1). 

The second highest rates for all three STDs were recorded among American Indians (612.6, 339.6 and 26.9, respectively).

On the other end of the scale, people in the Asian and white ethnic groups had the lowest rates of all three STDs.

The CDC also released surveillance carried out across eight U.S. states monitoring the proportion of gay and straight men and women that had chlamydia. 

Of the 33,000 participants, it found gay men were most likely to have an STD overall followed by straight men and women. It did not consider other sexualities.

The report said: ‘While STDs are increasing across many groups, the 2020 STD data show that some racial and ethnic minority groups, gay and bisexual men, and our nation’s youth continue to experience higher rates of STDs.

‘This trend shows that longstanding factors, such as lack of access to regular medical care, discrimination, and stigma, continue to stand in the way of quality sexual healthcare for everyone who needs it.’

Breaking the data down by state revealed Mississippi had the highest rates of chlamydia, gonorrhea and syphilis across the country. Louisiana had the second-highest rates of chlamydia and gonorrhea. 

Early in 2020 it appeared that COVID-19 control measures including self-isolation requirements and orders to stay home might reduce the spread of STDs in the country. But the opposite appears to be the case.

Experts suggest the rising rates may be down to a lack of testing which left many people unaware they were infected and, as a result, they spread the infection more.

It was also suggested that more people fell into poverty during the pandemic, which is known to be associated with a higher likelihood of catching an STD.

Researchers say testing capacity is now returning to pre-pandemic levels, offering hopes for curbing the spread of the disease.

The federal Government has also bumped up its funding for STD prevention, releasing its first five-year plan to combat the diseases and investing $200 million in building up public health capacity. 

What is syphilis? What are its symptoms? How is it diagnosed? Can it be treated?

Syphilis is a sexually transmitted infection that can cause serious health problems without being treated, especially for pregnant women.

The bacteria are spread through direct contact with a sore triggered by the disease during vaginal, anal or oral sex. The disease can also be spread from a mother to her child during childbirth.

What are the symptoms?

Syphilis infections in the early stages trigger the following warning signs:

  •  Sores on the penis, vagina, anus or lips;
  • Rashes around the mouth, vagina or anus which are rough and red;
  • Fever;
  • Headaches;
  • Sore throat;
  • Patchy hair loss;
  • Weight loss;
  • Muscle aches and fatigue. 

How is syphilis diagnosed?

Infections with this STD are detected using a simple blood test. It is also possible to diagnose the infection by testing fluid that has leaked from a sore.

Can it be treated?

Syphilis infections can be treated using a course of antibiotics. But doctors warn this may not reverse any damage a long-term infection has caused.

In cases where syphilis is not treated early, it can spread to the brain and nervous system, the eye and the ear. This can result in hearing loss, dizziness and changes to the mental state such as trouble focusing.   

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US sexually transmitted infections surged to record high in 2020 | US news

After briefly dropping in the early months of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) then resurged beyond 2019 levels to finish the year at a record high, according to new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Researchers with the CDC said its report, 2020 Sexually Transmitted Disease Surveillance, shows how Covid-19 disrupted in-person healthcare and diverted scarce public health resources away from STIs, which had been on the rise for years.

Ultimately, diverting resources to Covid-19 caused young people, racial minorities and gay and bisexual men to suffer disproportionately from new infections, it said.

The new data provides “the clearest picture yet of [the impact of] Covid-19 on STIs”, said Dr Jonathan Mermin, director of the CDC’s National Center for HIV, viral hepatitis, STD and tuberculosis prevention. “Honestly, there’s just much to be done.”

The CDC’s new report covers 2020, the first year of the pandemic and a time defined by lockdowns, social distancing and fear. The new report covers rates of gonorrhea, chlamydia and syphilis.

Early in 2020, it appeared social distancing might reduce rates of STIs. However, by the end of the year few infections had surged past levels seen in 2019. In just one example, rates of gonorrhea had jumped 10% by year’s end, said Mermin.

Those increased rates were driven by a lack of in-person appointments, delayed health screenings, lapses in health insurance for people who lost jobs and “crumbling public health infrastructure” that diverted contact tracers and testing supplies to Covid-19.

In 2020, reported cases of gonorrhea increased 10% and primary and secondary syphilis (two stages of the disease, with different symptoms) 7% compared with 2019. Especially worrying was the rate of congenital syphilis, or syphilis passed from mother to newborn, which increased 15% from 2019 and is up 235% compared with 2016.

Rates of chlamydia declined 13% in 2020, but researchers said the decline was not something to celebrate. Rather, chlamydia is typically asymptomatic and detected in in-person screenings such as pap smears. Because people put off these visits in 2020, cases probably went undiagnosed.

What’s more, groups that suffered disproportionately from new infections, such as racial and ethnic minorities, are among the same groups who were disproportionately affected by Covid-19. STIs also especially affected the young and poor.

“Some racial and ethnic minority groups continue to experience higher rates of STDs,” and half of new infections are among 15- to 24-year-olds, said Dr Leandro Mena, director of CDC’s division of STD prevention.

For decades, the US has spent more on healthcare than any other country, yet has worse health outcomes than many other developed nations. Such high rates of STIs among people with fewer resources are a reflection of “the nation’s failure to provide sufficient healthcare for everyone who needs it”, said Mena.

Although the 2020 data is grim, researchers said there were bright spots. For example, testing capacity and contact-tracing staffing have stabilized since 2020, and are reaching pre-pandemic levels – though that may be because many health departments have given up or significantly scaled back contact-tracing for Covid-19 following the Omicron surge.

The federal government also released the first national five-year plan to combat STIs, and has invested $200m to build public health capacity. The hope, said researchers, was to avoid disrupting services for diseases such as STIs should another emergency occur.

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Wholesale prices likely surged again in January as inflation accelerates

Wholesale prices likely accelerated again in January as strong consumer demand and pandemic-related supply-chain snarls continued to fuel the highest inflation in decades.

The Labor Department is releasing the producer price index on Tuesday morning, providing a fresh look at just how hot inflation ran in January. Economists expect the gauge – which measures inflation at the wholesale level before it reaches consumers – to show that prices surged 0.5% in January from the previous month. 

RED-HOT INFLATION PROBABLY COSTING MOST AMERICANS AN EXTRA $276 A MONTH

That would be up from December, when prices rose just 0.2% from the previous month.

The surge in wholesale prices comes on the heels of a separate Labor Department report released last week that showed consumer prices climbed 7.5% in January from the previous year, the biggest increase since February 982, when inflation hit 7.6%. Consumers are paying more for everyday necessities, including groceries, gasoline and cars.

The eye-popping reading – which marked the eighth consecutive month the gauge has been above 5% – will likely amp up pressure on the Federal Reserve to chart a more aggressive course in normalizing monetary policy. The central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates in March, but the hotter-than-expected inflation report could mean that policymakers pencil in a super-sized half-point hike.

Hiking interest rates tends to create higher rates on consumers and business loans, which slows the economy by forcing them to cut back on spending. 

Workers unload shipments of food at Union Market in Washington, DC, on February 9, 2022.  ((Photo by STEFANI REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images) / Getty Images)

“At this point it’s not a question of will they, won’t they – it’s a question of how many hikes we’ll see in 2022, and what the magnitude and pace will be,” Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E*Trade, said after the CPi report. “Given views on these aspects are all over the map at this point, there is a lot for the market to be uncertain about.”

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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has left open the possibility of a rate hike at every meeting this year and has refused to rule out a more aggressive, half-percentage point rate hike, but said it’s important to be “humble and nimble.” 

“We’re going to be led by the incoming data and the evolving outlook,” he told reporters during the central bank’s policy-setting meeting last month. 

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U.S. National Debt Tops $30 Trillion as Borrowing Surged

WASHINGTON — America’s gross national debt topped $30 trillion for the first time on Tuesday, an ominous fiscal milestone that underscores the fragile nature of the country’s long-term economic health as it grapples with soaring prices and the prospect of higher interest rates.

The breach of that threshold, which was revealed in new Treasury Department figures, arrived years earlier than previously projected as a result of trillions in federal spending that the United States has deployed to combat the pandemic. That $5 trillion, which funded expanded jobless benefits, financial support for small businesses and stimulus payments, was financed with borrowed money.

The borrowing binge, which many economists viewed as necessary to help the United States recover from the pandemic, has left the nation with a debt burden so large that the government would need to spend an amount larger than America’s entire annual economy in order to pay it off.

Some economists contend that the nation’s large debt load is not unhealthy given that the economy is growing, interest rates are low and investors are still willing to buy U.S. Treasury securities, which gives them safe assets to help manage their financial risk. Those securities allow the government to borrow money relatively cheaply and use it to invest in the economy.

For years, presidents have promised to limit federal borrowing and bring down the nation’s budget deficit, which is the gap between what the nation spends and what it takes in. Under President Bill Clinton, the United States actually ran a budget surplus between 1998 and 2001.

But taming deficits had fallen out of fashion in recent years, including during the Trump administration, when lawmakers blew through budget caps and borrowed money to fund tax cuts and other federal spending.

Now, deficit concerns have resurfaced, helping to stall negotiations over President Biden’s $2 trillion safety net and climate spending proposal. Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, a Democrat whose vote is key to passing Mr. Biden’s package, cited “staggering debt” as a reason he could not support the legislation.

The lingering pandemic has slowed the momentum of the economic recovery, fueling inflation rates unseen since the early 1980s and raising the prospect of higher interest rates, which could add to America’s fiscal burden.

“Hitting the $30 trillion mark is clearly an important milestone in our dangerous fiscal trajectory,” said Michael A. Peterson, the chief executive officer of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which promotes deficit reduction. “For many years before Covid, America had an unsustainable structural fiscal path because the programs we’ve designed are not sufficiently funded by the revenue we take in.”

The gross national debt represents debt held by the public, such as individuals, businesses and pension funds, as well as liabilities that one part of the federal government owes to another part.

Renewed concerns about debt and deficits in Washington follow years of disregard for the consequences of big spending. During the Trump administration, most Republicans ceased to be fiscal hawks and voted along party lines in 2017 to pass a $1.5 trillion tax cut along with increased federal spending.

While Republican lawmakers helped run up the nation’s debt load, they have since blamed Mr. Biden for putting the nation on a rocky fiscal path by funding his agenda. After a protracted standoff in which Republicans refused to raise America’s borrowing cap, threatening a first-ever federal default, Congress finally agreed in December to raise the nation’s debt limit to about $31.4 trillion.

In January 2020, before the pandemic spread across the United States, the Congressional Budget Office projected that the gross national debt would reach $30 trillion by around the end of 2025. The total debt held by the public outpaced the size of the American economy last year, a decade faster than forecasters projected.

The nonpartisan office warned last year that rising interest costs and growing health spending as the population aged would increase the risk of a “fiscal crisis” and higher inflation, a situation that could undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar.

The Biden administration has said the $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package the Democrats passed last year was a necessary measure to protect the economy from further damage. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen has argued that such large federal investments are affordable because interest costs as a share of gross domestic product are at historically low levels thanks to persistently low interest rates.

But that backdrop could start to change as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates, which have been set near zero since the start of the pandemic, to curb inflation.

The Fed indicated last week that it was on track to begin increasing rates at its next meeting in March. Investors are predicting the central bank could usher in five rate increases this year, bringing rates to a range of 1 to 1.25 percent.

The Fed has also been keeping long-term interest rates low by buying government-backed debt and holding those securities on its balance sheet. Those purchases are set to wrap up next month, and last week, the Fed signaled it planned to “significantly” shrink its bond holdings.

Esther L. George, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, suggested during a speech this week that the Fed’s big bond holdings might be lowering longer-term interest rates by as much as 1.5 percentage points — nearly cutting the interest rate on 10-year government debt in half. While shrinking the balance sheet risks roiling markets, she warned that if the Fed remained a big presence in the Treasury market, it could distort financial conditions and imperil the central bank’s prized independence from elected government.

As rates rise, so does the amount that the United States owes to investors who buy its debt. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that if interest rates rise in line with their own forecasts, net interest costs will reach 8.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2051. That would amount to about $60 trillion in total interest payments over three decades.

“A larger amount of debt makes the United States’ fiscal position more vulnerable to an increase in interest rates,” the C.B.O. said in its long-term budget outlook.

In a recent report, Brian Riedl, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, pointed to the C.B.O.’s prediction that the average interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes would rise from 1.6 percent to 4.9 percent over the next 30 years. He estimates that if interest rates exceed that forecast by just a percentage point, it will mean another $30 trillion in interest costs during that time.

Mr. Riedl described policymakers who expected interest rates to remain low indefinitely as “hubristic” and said it was risky to assume that low rates would keep the debt stable over time.

“The economy is unpredictable, and we should never take low interest rates and inflation for granted,” Mr. Riedl said in an interview.

The interest on the debt could soon be the fastest-growing part of the federal budget.

Biden administration officials insist that they view fiscal responsibility as a priority. They have pledged that their economic agenda will be fully paid for through tax increases on wealthy Americans and corporations and by more rigorous enforcement of the tax code. Ms. Yellen has predicted that inflation will moderate later this year and return to normal levels as supply chains stabilize.

In recent months, the budget deficit has started to shrink as a stronger economy has boosted tax receipts and as government payments of pandemic relief money have slowed.

And some economists argue that a more recent economic phenomenon — inflation — may have a silver lining in that it could chip away at the nation’s debt burden.

Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University economist, said that rising prices essentially watered down the value of outstanding debt and increased tax revenue as incomes rise. He suggested that markets appeared to be largely unfazed by the possibility of higher interest rates so far and that given the other risks to the economy amid the pandemic, the scale of the national debt was not as worrying as it sounded.

“You would rather have no debt, of course,” Mr. Rogoff said of the $30 trillion total. “But compared to other issues at the moment that’s not the principal problem.”

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US inflation likely surged to new record in November

The latest measure of inflation is projected to show another eye-popping figure as the price of everyday consumer goods soared higher in November.

The Labor Department is releasing the highly anticipated consumer price index on Friday morning, providing a fresh look at just how hot inflation ran last month. Economists expect the gauge – which measures a bevy of goods ranging from gasoline and health care to groceries and rents – to show that prices surged 6.8% in November from the year-ago period, toppling the previous month’s 31-year high of 6.2%. On a month-to-month basis, economists forecast the index would rise by 0.7%.

It would mark the fastest increase in consumer prices since June 1982, when it hit 7.1%.

CONSUMER PRICES SURGE BY MOST IN 31 YEARS

Rising inflation is eating away at strong gains and wages and salaries that American workers have seen in recent months – bad news for President Biden, who has seen his approval rating plunge as consumer prices rose. The White House has blamed the price spike on supply-chain bottlenecks and other pandemic-induced disruptions in the economy, while Republicans have pinned it on the president’s massive spending agenda.

Biden looked to downplay the November inflation figure before its release, saying in a statement on Thursday that the data would not reflect the decline in gas prices. He stressed that passing his $1.7 trillion social spending and climate plan is necessary to help lower costs. 

A driver fuels a car at a service station in New York City, Oct. 13, 2021. (Getty Images / Getty Images)

“Fortunately, in the weeks since the data for tomorrow’s inflation report was collected, energy prices have dropped,” Biden said in a statement. “The information being released tomorrow on energy in November does not reflect today’s reality, and it does not reflect the expected price decreases in the weeks and months ahead, such as in the auto market.”

A higher-than-expected reading could imperil the passage of the Build Back Better bill, however: Sen. Joe Manchin raised concerns this week about soaring inflation and refused to commit to supporting his party’s massive social spending and climate plan.

During a Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit, Manchin, D-W.Va., expressed alarm about the state of the economy after the government reported last month that inflation hit a 31-year high. He maintained that he’s waiting to see the final text of the $1.7 trillion spending plan before making a decision.

“The unknown we’re facing today is much greater than the need that people believe in this aspirational bill that we’re looking at, and we’ve got to make sure we get this right,” Manchin said. “We just can’t continue to flood the market, as we’ve done.”

The reading will also have major implications for the Federal Reserve. Though central bank policymakers largely downplayed rising as “transitory” and likely to abate as supply-chain disruptions cleared up, Chair Jerome Powell shifted his tone last week while testifying before Congress. 

David Cruise discusses artificial Christmas trees with a saleswoman at the Balsam Hill showroom in Burlingame, California, Nov. 19, 2021.  (Associated Press / AP Newsroom)

He told lawmakers that it was time to “retire” the word transitory – partly due to different interpretations of what the word means –  and suggested that Fed officials may speed up their withdrawal of pandemic support for the economy. 

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“At this point, the economy is very strong, and inflationary pressures are high,” Powell said last week. “It is therefore appropriate in my view to consider wrapping up the taper of our asset purchases, which we actually announced at our November meeting, perhaps a few months sooner.”

That could mean the Fed’s bond-buying program ends sooner than expected, potentially leading to a faster-than-expected interest rate hike. The central bank has been purchasing $120 billion in bonds each month throughout most of the pandemic in order to keep credit cheap and stabilize the financial markets. In November, Fed officials announced plans to scale back the program by $15 billion a month, a timeline that would end the program by late June. 
 

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A key measure of inflation surged to a new 30-year high

Stripping out food and energy prices, which tend to be volatile, the inflation measure stood at 3.6%, where it has been since June. It remains the fastest rate of so-called core inflation since March 1991 and well above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.

The PCE inflation gauge is one of many, and they’re not all pointing in the same direction: The consumer price inflation index came off a 13-year high in August, for example. But the PCE index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

The continued surge in PCE inflation has led the Fed to signal that it will begin to wind down its emergency economic stimulus — even though the US economic recovery has shown signs of a slowdown in recent months.

Pay raises and price hikes

Although prices rose sharply, American incomes increased at only a modest pace, up 0.2% or $35.5 billion. Disposable income was up by even less — just 0.1% or $18.8 billion.

These increases were partly due to higher wages as companies are trying to attract and retain workers while a shortage of labor is weighing on many businesses. In government benefits, the advance Child Tax Credit payments under the American Rescue Plan helped add to incomes. Friday’s report does not yet reflect the end to the enhanced pandemic unemployment benefits, which rolled off at the start of September.

And yet Americans kept going out to spend their cash. Consumer spending rose 0.8% or $130.5 billion in August, split pretty evenly between good and services.

“Households still have plenty left in the tank given rising employment and wages, soaring net worth (as home prices reach for the sky), and massive excess savings,” said BMO Senior Economist Sal Guatieri in a note to clients. “However, rising prices are eating into spending power,” he added.

Consumers remain the backbone of the US economy. If inflation got so high that people would rather save their money than spend it, America’s economy would be in a really tight spot.

That said, the rate of savings has soared during the pandemic. In August, it stood at 9.4%.

Given the ongoing threat of new Covid-19 infections through the Delta variant and the colder months with fewer outdoor activities looming, people’s services spending could get curtailed.

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Far-right militia group membership surged after Capitol attack, hack shows | US Capitol attack

Hacked materials from the website of the rightwing militia group the Oath Keepers show that hundreds of people either joined or renewed their membership after many of the group’s members participated in the attack on the Capitol on 6 January.

They included people who joined under their military ranks, including combat veterans, retired servicepersons, at least one serving national guardsman, several members of the clergy and others involved in security contracting and the firearms industry.

Other materials in the hack show signups to petitions under government or military emails, and private email addresses being provided in response to appeals for assistance from military and service personnel.

But with many of those addresses apparently not functioning or invalid, the extent of prior involvement by government and military employees in the group was not immediately clear.

The post-Capitol attack membership surge is evident in payment records from the Oath Keepers website.

They show that 801 people either joined the organization or made donations after 4 January, when founder Stewart Rhodes posted an article on the website headlined “Oath Keepers Deploying to DC to Protect Events, Speakers, & Attendees on Jan 5-6: Time to Stand!”

But almost all of that number – 788 altogether – joined or donated after Oath Keepers members participated in the incursion into the Capitol building on 6 January, with the records showing that the surge built momentum in January before slowing in February, March and April, where the records end.

There were no email addresses linked to military or government employers in the trove, but 10 sign-ups noted their military ranks in an optional “title” field, which ranged between corporal and colonel, including three men who offered the rank of lieutenant colonel.

The Guardian’s investigation of the record showed that the majority of these are retired, but some have gone on to work in other sensitive roles.

The records show, for example, that one sign-up was a former lieutenant colonel in the US Marine Corps and that his service included stints at the corps’ headquarters in Quantico, Virginia, before taking a position at Northrop Grumman, a defense contractor.

Another sign-up, on 7 January, was apparently another Marine veteran who also worked as a bodyguard for the military contractor Blackwater, in a US government program to provide personal protection in theaters of war like Afghanistan and Iraq.

Several other men joined who used the religious title of Reverend, including one man who appears to have run for office in Wyoming as a pro-Trump Republican candidate.

The hacked materials were provided to reporters by the transparency organization Distributed Denial of Secrets after an anonymous hacker broke into the Oath Keepers’ infrastructure.

It was not immediately apparent whether the hack exfiltrated all of the Oath Keepers’ data, or just a segment, but as delivered it contained email threads, message archives and extensive records on membership and calls to action on specific issues.

Many of the records reveal direct communications to and from Rhodes, the Oath Keepers’ founder and leader.

Previous reporting at the Daily Dot described hundreds of military and government emails in the trove. While many older member records and records of petition campaigns do show such addresses, Guardian attempts to contact them resulted in extensive email bounces and notices that the addresses did not exist.

Similarly, many private addresses were associated with explicit calls for military and law enforcement volunteers.

In each case, it was not immediately clear whether all the addresses represented currently serving military or law enforcement officers, and in some cases it was not clear if or when the email addresses were valid.

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