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4 charts show current state of pandemic heading into 2022

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A pedestrian wearing a protective face mask walks past a street-art mural by French street artist JBC, in tribute to health workers depicting a nurse wearing a protective face mask in reference to coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on March 24, 2021 in Paris, France.

Chesnot | Getty Images

Nearly two years into the Covid-19 pandemic, reported daily infections are rising again as the omicron variant spreads rapidly around the world, in countries ranging from the U.S. and the U.K. to South Africa and Australia.

The World Health Organization labeled omicron a variant of concern. While much remains unknown about it, the WHO warned that the variant is spreading “significantly faster” than the delta strain and could change the course of the pandemic.

Still, “2022 must be the end of the Covid-19 pandemic,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general, said Wednesday.  

Data on the pandemic — such as confirmed cases, hospitalizations and deaths — likely underestimates the actual situation owing to limited testing, frequency of reporting and quality of data collected.

But based on available data, here are four charts that show the state of the Covid pandemic as 2021 comes to an end.

Omicron is gaining dominance

The omicron variant has been found in around 100 countries, said the WHO. The agency added that the number of Covid cases involving omicron is doubling every 1.5 to three days.

Cases are up, but deaths are down

The omicron variant triggered a new wave of infections globally. In Africa, daily confirmed cases jumped from a seven-day moving average of around 3.14 per million people at the start of November to 26.67 per million on Tuesday, according to an analysis by online repository Our World in Data.

Over the same period, the U.K.’s daily confirmed cases rose from a seven-day moving average of 603.38 per million people to around 1,280 per million people — a record high since the pandemic began, the analysis showed.

Hospitalizations among infected people have also risen in several countries. The U.S., France and South Africa were among those that recorded a rise in weekly hospital admissions over the past month because of Covid-19, according to official statistics compiled by Our World in Data.

But the average number of confirmed daily Covid deaths has been trending downward globally, an analysis by Our World in Data showed.

Scientists are still studying the severity of infection caused by the omicron variant compared with previous Covid strains.

Benjamin Cowling, an epidemiology professor at The University of Hong Kong’s School of Public Health, said omicron seems to cause “about the same severity” as delta and other variants.  

“But if you’ve been vaccinated, if you’ve had an infection before, you’ve got some protection particularly against severe disease. And that means that omicron in reality looks milder,” Cowling told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.

“It looks like a milder infection because of the immunity that we’ve built up, not because the virus is particularly different in terms of its natural innate severity,” he added.

Vaccine inequality

The threat of omicron — and future variants — has highlighted the importance of vaccination in preventing severe disease, said experts. But the distribution of Covid vaccines has remained unequal.

In more than 30 countries, under 10% of the population has been fully vaccinated, according to figures compiled by Our World in Data. Many of those countries are low-income nations in Africa, the data showed.

On the other hand, high-income countries are far ahead in vaccinating their people and rolling out booster shots, according to the data.  

That gap could narrow over time with billions of doses of vaccines produced each year, said Jerome Kim, director general of the International Vaccine Institute.

“We need to use the vaccines as best we can, we need to use boosters if those are indicated,” Kim told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” earlier this month.  

“And then we need to use other methods including masks, distance and avoiding crowds and hygiene in order to reduce the total infection burden within a country.”

WHO’s Tedros said that to end the pandemic in the coming year, every country must vaccinate 70% of its population by the middle of 2022.

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World

Some glimmers of hope emerging on omicron, but experts stress caution

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People wait in long lines to take a free COVID-19 test at a local fire station in Washington, December 20, 2021.

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

The rapid spread of the omicron variant of Covid-19 is forcing governments worldwide to impose strict containment measures, but there are some glimmers of hope in the data currently available, according to experts.

While it is still too early to know for sure the severity of the variant, studies so far indicate that the damage it causes is likely to be at worst akin to previous variants, and possibly milder.

Recent data from South Africa — where the strain first emerged — along with a study from Hong Kong and developments from vaccine manufacturers, seem to point to some potential elements of good news amid the overarching dangers. And hospitalization and death rates are so far significantly lower than with previous variants.

“We have anti-viral drugs which will work against omicron, vaccines that work to an extent and can be improved, and lateral flow tests which allow us to check our infection status in real time,” Lawrence Young, virologist and professor of oncology at the University of Warwick, told CNBC on Tuesday.

Still, medical experts agree that the higher transmissibility of the virus poses a severe threat to health care systems even if symptoms are milder, because the sheer volume of infections will likely lead to more people needing hospital care.

The World Health Organization has warned that omicron infections are doubling every 1.5 to 3 days in areas with community transmission, and the variant has now been detected in at least 89 countries.

Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London, told CNBC via email on Tuesday that even if omicron does prove to be “milder” than other strains, the potential caseload could double or triple the number of people needing hospitalization in the U.K., where the virus is currently rampant — with particular risk to the unvaccinated.

1. Promising T cell response

Young, the virologist at the University of Warwick, described findings on the body’s response to omicron, highlighting a particular reaction that bodes well for evading severe symptoms of the virus.

“It’s important to note that while laboratory data shows that the spike protein of the omicron variant is relatively resistant to the virus blocking antibodies induced by vaccination or natural infection, the T cell response is likely to be highly conserved,” he said.

This is because it targets regions of the spike protein that are highly consistent between the omicron variant and the original Wuhan virus, on which current vaccines are based, Young explained.

The conservation of the T cell response once the virus has broken through the vaccine’s outer defenses and entered the body would lessen the risk of the host developing severe symptoms.

2. Lower rate of infection in lungs

A study from the University of Hong Kong, led by Dr. Michael Chan Chi-wai, found that omicron transmits faster and more effectively than the previously dominant delta strain in the human bronchus.

However the study, which is currently under peer review, also discovered that omicron infection in the lungs is significantly lower, indicating that it may have a less severe impact on those who get infected.

In other words, it is more infectious, but less likely to be able to attack vulnerable parts of our anatomies.

But Dr. Chan also noted that simply by infecting many more people, a highly infectious virus “may cause more severe disease and death even though the virus itself may be less pathogenic.”

“Therefore, taken together with our recent studies showing that the Omicron variant can partially escape immunity from vaccines and past infection, the overall threat from Omicron variant is likely to be very significant,” he added.

However, Young stressed that the findings from Hong Kong so far are “intriguing but very preliminary.”

3. Boosters work

Evidence has suggested that vaccinated people, particularly those who have received booster shots, are far less at risk of hospitalization or death from the new variant.

Some more promising news on this front came on Monday, when Moderna announced that its booster inoculation had shown itself to be effective against the omicron variant in laboratory testing.

Benjamin Cowling, professor at the School of Public Health at the University of Hong Kong, told CNBC on Monday that data thus far indicates that the omicron variant causes around the same disease severity as delta and other previous variants in unvaccinated patients or those who have never been infected.

“If you have been vaccinated, if you have had an infection before, you have got some protection, particularly against severe disease, and that means that omicron in reality looks milder. It looks like a milder infection because of the immunity that we have built up, not because the virus is particularly different in terms of its natural innate severity,” he said.

Cowling explained that vaccines offer two lines of defense, firstly through antibodies to protect against infection and secondly through T-cells which protect against severe disease in the event of a breakthrough infection.

“If we get that third dose, the booster, it strengthens that outer line of defense and we are back to where we were maybe six months ago, where having three doses does give us those two lines of defense back.”

However, Young emphasized that while the booster data so far is promising in its effectiveness against severe symptoms, it will not necessarily negate the potential for the variant to overburden health systems.

“The latest preliminary modelling indicates that a booster jab could provide around 85% protection against severe disease from omicron – but that means that 15% of boosted individuals won’t be fully protected, and added to those who are unvaccinated or not boosted, this is a huge number of vulnerable individuals,” he said.

4. Lower hospitalizations in South Africa

This suggestion has been echoed in South Africa, where the virus was first identified by scientists in late November, though it was most likely already present in other countries around the world at that time.

The country experienced a rapid rise in cases which appears to have since peaked in the hotspot Gauteng region around three weeks after first detection.

Despite the surge in cases, the rolling average of daily deaths remained low, marking a sharp divergence from previous waves and variants.

Health minister Joe Phaahla said in a press conference last week that just 1.7% of omicron cases were being hospitalized, compared to 19% when the delta variant emerged.

However, Phaahla also expressed concern about declining vaccination rates, suggesting that it may not just be that omicron is less virulent, but that vaccinations and natural immunity are adding to the protection from severe cases among the infected.

Young told CNBC that extrapolating from the experience in South Africa is “complicated by the younger average age of the infected individuals, their immune status and the fact that it’s summer in South Africa, and this may be influencing the spread of omicron.”

5. Antiviral drug developments

Another possible green shoot in the effort to constrain the impact of Covid has been advances in antiviral drug developments aimed at high-risk members of the population, such as the immunosuppressed or cancer patients.

Pfizer announced last week that its Paxlovid antiviral treatment was shown in second-stage trials to cut the risk of hospitalization or death in high-risk patients by 89% if administered within three days of symptom onset, and 88% within five days.

The U.K.’s medicines regulator also recently authorized the use of Xevudy (sotrovimab), a monoclonal antibody made by GlaxoSmithKline and Vir Biotechnology, and Lagevrio (molnupiravir), made by Ridgeback Biotherapeutics and Merck Sharp & Dohme.

On Wednesday, the U.K. government confirmed that it had ordered an additional 2.5 million courses of Paxlovid and 1.75 million of Lagevrio for delivery over the course of 2022.

Hospital capacity at risk and unvaccinated still highly vulnerable

Altmann, the immunology professor at Imperial College London, warned against taking the current data at hand as reason to relinquish caution.

A crucial vulnerability, he and other professionals stress, remains the unvaccinated. Hospitalizations will be skewed towards the portion of the population who are unvaccinated or have had only one vaccine dose.

Looking at the U.K. specifically, he said: “At a time when NHS (National Health Service) are A) massively depleted by omicron and B) massively stretched and fatigued after two thankless years on the frontline, this would be untenable,” he said, adding that there were “no green shoots yet.”



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Health

Cold, runny nose, headache, London cases shows

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Shoppers wearing face masks as a preventive measure against the spread of covid-19 seen walking along Oxford Circus in London.

SOPA Images | LightRocket | Getty Images

LONDON — Symptoms associated with the omicron Covid-19 variant could be similar to those that normally accompany a cold, but experts are warning people that they should not underestimate the risks posed by the more transmissible variant.

One British study has now suggested that omicron infections could be associated with symptoms that make it easy to mistake it for an everyday illness like a cold.

The ZOE COVID Study, which analyses thousands of Covid symptoms uploaded to an app by the British public, looked this week at symptoms associated with Covid cases in London that were recorded over two separate weeks in October and December, that is, before (as far as we know) and after omicron was spreading in the capital.

This initial analysis found similarities between the delta and the omicron variant, suggesting the latter hasn’t mutated back into the more flu-like symptoms of previous Covid strains. The team said that the top five symptoms reported in the ZOE app in those two different weeks were:

  1. Runny nose
  2. Headache
  3. Fatigue (either mild or severe)
  4. Sneezing
  5. Sore throat

London was selected for the ZOE analysis due to the higher prevalence of omicron compared to other regions. The omicron variant is already the dominant variant in the capital and will soon account for nearly all infections in the capital and wider U.K.

Experts predict this phenomenon is likely to be repeated across other countries around the globe. This time, with the omicron variant, cases could be harder to spot, however.

Professor Tim Spector, lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Study app, said that there was a risk that potential omicron cases could well be mistaken for minor colds.

“As our latest data shows, omicron symptoms are predominantly cold symptoms, runny nose, headache, sore throat and sneezing, so people should stay at home as it might well be Covid,” Spector said in ZOE’s latest report Thursday.

“Hopefully people now recognise the cold-like symptoms which appear to be the predominant feature of omicron,” he added.

Spector noted, as have other British experts on Covid, that the omicron looks set to be the dominant strain in the U.K. by Christmas, with many people now questioning whether the U.K. could go into a lockdown in the new year.

“In the New Year cases could hit a peak higher than anything we’ve ever seen before,” Spector noted, although he hoped that there could be some reversal of a rise in cases in London as people are encouraged by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and leading health experts to curtail their social mixing, work from home and wear face masks.

What we know of omicron

It would be a big mistake to underestimate the risks posed by the omicron variant, despite some evidence that it causes milder symptoms more akin to a cold than flu.

Experts have judged omicron as being far more transmissible than the delta variant and believe it will soon become the dominant variant internationally. Omicron’s rise to prominence is remarkable given the fact it was only designated as a “variant of concern” by the World Health Organization on Nov. 26, two days after South Africa reported that it had detected it.

Early, small studies showed that while it was more virulent than the delta variant, it might cause less severe infections but that remains to be seen at a wider, real-world level with an infected person’s age (younger people tend to experience milder Covid infections), general state of health and vaccination status (including when they were fully vaccinated as we know immunity wanes after six months) being factors in how an illness is experienced.

The South African doctor who first spotted the variant among her patients has said that the initial symptoms she saw in her own surgery were “extremely mild” but this was observational evidence on a small group of people.

Vaccine makers have said that the variant undermines the efficacy of a full course of Covid vaccination but that a booster shot helps to restore much of the shots’ protection against severe infection, hospitalization and death.

Rising hospitalization

Experts are warning that a rise in hospitalizations is now inevitable given the increased transmissibility of omicron.

South Africa has seen a rise in hospitalizations (although the majority of admissions have been unvaccinated people) and the U.K. is seeing an increase too, with U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson noting on Wednesday that the country was now seeing what he called “the inevitable increase in hospitalizations, up by 10% nationally week on week and up by almost a third in London.”

To date, there have been just over 10,000 cases of omicron in the U.K., with case numbers doubling every two days or less, and experts predict this is a vast understatement of the true number of omicron infections.

The first two confirmed U.K. cases of the variant were announced on Nov. 27 and they had links to travel to South Africa. Although soon after, cases of community transmission were confirmed, meaning the variant was likely circulating earlier.

Omicron is making its presence felt in the U.K. with Covid cases surging prompting the government to race to get booster shots into people’s arms. On Wednesday, the U.K. reported its highest number of Covid cases since the pandemic began with 78,610 new infections.

England’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, called on Wednesday for “serious caution” over hospitalization data, particularly in South Africa, that suggested omicron might cause a milder disease. There, he said, immunity levels were different among the population due to a recent wave of delta infections.

He noted that more data was still needed on hospitalizations, severe disease and deaths but that “all the things that we do know [about omicron] are bad.”

Dr. David Nabarro, the World Health Organization’s special envoy on Covid-19, later told Sky News Wednesday that there was a “very serious situation indeed” in the U.K.

“The rise that you’re seeing in the U.K. today is just the beginning of an extraordinary acceleration,” he said.

“There are two epidemics going on; delta and omicron. And it is an emergency situation for the British health service. It will get extremely serious within the next two weeks, perhaps quicker.”

Nabarro added the spread of the omicron variant was “serious in the U.K., it’s serious in Europe, and it’s serious for the world.”

“We’re concerned that people are dismissing omicron as mild,” he said. “Even if omicron does cause less severe disease the sheer number of cases will once again overwhelm health systems.

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Health

Data indicate omicron is milder, better at evading vaccines

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JOHANNESBURG (AP) — The omicron variant appears to cause less severe disease than previous versions of the coronavirus, and the Pfizer vaccine seems to offer less defense against infection from it but still good protection from hospitalization, according to an analysis of data from South Africa, where the new variant is driving a surge in infections.

While the findings released Tuesday are preliminary and have not been peer-reviewed — the gold standard in scientific research — they line up with other early data about omicron’s behavior, including that it seems to be more easily transmitted.

A two-dose Pfizer-BioNTech vaccination appeared to provide just 33% protection against infection during South Africa’s current omicron wave, but 70% protection against hospitalization, according to the analysis conducted by Discovery Health, South Africa’s largest private health insurer, and the South African Medical Research Council.

The data were gathered from Nov. 15 to Dec. 7, during which time omicron was first spotted by scientists in South Africa and Botswana, and may change as time passes. Experts now say that omicron accounts for more than 90% of all new infections in South Africa, according to Discovery Health chief executive Dr. Ryan Noach.

Researchers around the world are rushing to figure out what omicron will mean for the coronavirus pandemic now well into its second year. More information came Tuesday from Pfizer, which announced that its experimental pill to treat COVID-19 — separate from it its vaccine — appears effective against the new variant.

The company also said full results of its 2,250-person study confirmed the pill’s promising early results against the virus: The drug reduced combined hospitalizations and deaths by about 89% among high-risk adults when taken shortly after initial virus symptoms. Separate laboratory testing shows the drug retains its potency against the omicron variant.

In the weeks since omicron was detected, South Africa has experienced rapid spread of the virus — concentrated in its most populous province, Gauteng. The seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the country rose over the past two weeks from 8.07 new cases per 100,000 people on Nov. 29 to 34.37 new cases per 100,000 people on Dec. 13, according to Johns Hopkins University. The death rate hasn’t increased during that same period.

“The omicron-driven fourth wave has a significantly steeper trajectory of new infections relative to prior waves. National data show an exponential increase in both new infections and test positivity rates during the first three weeks of this wave, indicating a highly transmissible variant with rapid community spread of infection,” Noach said.

Although case numbers are rising, hospitalizations are not increasing at the same rate, leading the scientists to report that the risk of hospitalization from omicron is lower than delta or earlier variants. Hospital admissions for adults diagnosed with COVID-19 are 29% lower compared to the wave that South Africa experienced in mid-2020, after adjusting for vaccination status, according to the analysis.

The result shows that people who received two doses of the Pfizer vaccine had 33% protection against infection in the first weeks of South Africa’s current omicron-driven wave. That’s a significant drop from the 80% protection against infection afforded during earlier periods.

The researchers say it’s encouraging that the study shows that people fully vaccinated with Pfizer have 70% protection against hospital admission during the omicron surge. That’s still a drop from the 93% protection seen in South Africa’s delta-driven wave.

The study shows that significant protection against hospital admission even among older age groups, with 67% in people aged 60 to 69 and 60% for people aged 70 to 79.

The analysis was based on examining more than 211,000 positive COVID-19 test results, 41% of which were for adults who had received two doses of the Pfizer vaccine. About 78,000 of the positive results were attributed to omicron infections.

The South African analysis supports an earlier assessment by U.K. authorities.

The U.K. Health Security Agency said Friday that new data from the U.K. confirm that omicron is more easily transmissible than other variants. Other studies suggest that both the AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines are less effective in preventing symptomatic infections in people exposed to omicron, though preliminary data show that effectiveness appears to rise to between 70% and 75% after a third booster dose.

The study also found that omicron poses a higher risk of reinfection. For individuals who have previously had COVID-19, the risk of reinfection with omicron is significantly higher than that of earlier variants.

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Follow AP’s pandemic coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/coronavirus-pandemic

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Health

Oxford University study says omicron can hit the double vaccinated

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Jakub Porzycki | NurPhoto | Getty Images

LONDON — Two doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca or Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccines are substantially less effective at warding off omicron compared to previous variants of the coronavirus, scientists have found.

However, the researchers were optimistic that a booster shot would improve immunity against the new, highly transmissible variant.

In a new study announced on Monday, researchers from the University of Oxford tested blood samples of people 28 days after their second dose of either vaccine.

When omicron was introduced to those samples, scientists reported “a substantial fall” in the neutralizing antibodies that fight off Covid compared to the immune responses seen against earlier variants.

The research paper noted that some vaccine recipients “failed to neutralize [the virus] at all.”

“This will likely lead to increased breakthrough infections in previously infected or double vaccinated individuals, which could drive a further wave of infection, although there is currently no evidence of increased potential to cause severe disease, hospitalization or death,” the study’s authors said.

The pre-print study, which is yet to be peer reviewed, was published on the MedRxiv server.

Gavin Screaton, head of Oxford University’s Medical Sciences Division and lead author of the paper, said in a press release on Monday that the findings should “press home the message that those who are offered booster vaccination should take it.”

“Whilst there is no evidence for increased risk of severe disease, or death, from the virus amongst vaccinated populations, we must remain cautious, as greater case numbers will still place a considerable burden on healthcare systems,” he warned.

“Vaccination induces many arms of our immune system, including neutralizing antibodies and T-cells,” added co-author Teresa Lambe, a professor of vaccinology at the University of Oxford.

“Real-world effectiveness data has shown us that vaccines continue to protect against severe disease with previous variants of concern. The best way to protect us going forward in this pandemic is by getting vaccines in arms.”

A report published by the U.K.’s Health Security Agency on Friday estimated that two doses of a Covid vaccine were significantly less effective at preventing symptomatic disease through infection from the omicron variant compared to delta. However, the report noted that after a booster dose, vaccines were thought to be 70 to 75% effective at preventing symptomatic infections.

“With previous variants, vaccine effectiveness against severe disease, including hospitalization and death, has been higher than effectiveness against mild disease,” the UKHSA said. “It will be a few weeks before effectiveness against severe disease with Omicron can be estimated, however based on this experience, this is likely to be substantially higher than the estimates against symptomatic disease.”

In a televised statement on Sunday, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned Britain faces a “tidal wave” of Omicron infections, and announced that the country would be speeding up its booster program to offer all adults a third dose of a vaccine by the end of the year. The government had previously been aiming to extend its booster scheme to all over-18s by the end of January.

Johnson’s statement came after the chief medical officers of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland raised the U.K.’s coronavirus threat level to four — the second highest level — in light of the spread of omicron.

Elsewhere, an Israeli study published on Saturday found that a three-dose course of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine provided significant protection against the omicron variant. Israel began its booster program in July.

The findings from Israel came after researchers in South Africa found omicron could partially evade the immunity from two shots of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.

The omicron variant, thought to be more infectious than its predecessor delta, was first identified in South Africa in November and has since spread to at least 38 countries around the world and 25 U.S. states.

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Health

Pfizer Jab Provides Less Immunity To Omicron Than Other Variants: Study

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The jump in cases in South Africa following omicron’s emergence hasn’t overwhelmed hospitals

Pfizer Inc.’s vaccine provides less immunity to the omicron variant than to other major versions of Covid-19, according to laboratory experiments that still indicated a third dose may help stop the highly mutated strain.

Researchers at the Africa Health Research Institute in Durban, South Africa, found omicron resulted in about a 40-fold reduction in levels of neutralizing antibodies produced by people who had received two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech SE shot, compared with the strain detected in China almost two years ago.

The loss of immune protection is “robust, but not complete,” Alex Sigal, head of research at the laboratory, said in an online presentation of the first reported experiments gauging the effectiveness of the vaccine against the new variant.

“There will be more breakthrough” of vaccine-induced immunity, Sigal said. “A good booster probably would decrease your chance of infection, especially severe infection leading to more severe disease. People who haven’t had a booster should get one, and people who have been previously infected should be vaccinated.”

Representatives for Pfizer and BioNTech, makers of the first Covid vaccine cleared in the U.S., didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. The study may add to the debate over whether tweaked, omicron-targeted vaccines will be needed soon to continue effectively fighting the pandemic. Moderna Inc. President Stephen Hoge has said there’s a risk that existing vaccines will be less effective against the strain, although U.S. medical adviser Anthony Fauci said the severity of illness caused by the variant may be limited.

Omicron’s rapid spread in South Africa has raised concern that the immune protection from vaccination or a previous bout of Covid-19 may be insufficient to stop reinfections or stem a fresh wave of cases and hospitalizations. The World Health Organization has warned omicron could fuel surges with “severe consequences” amid signs that it makes the coronavirus more transmissible.

Cautious Optimism

Still, the jump in cases in South Africa following omicron’s emergence hasn’t overwhelmed hospitals so far, prompting some cautious optimism that the new strain may cause mostly mild illness.

Since South Africa announced the discovery of omicron on Nov. 25, about 450 researchers globally have been working to isolate the variant from patient specimens, grow it in labs, verify its genomic sequence, and establish methods to test it in blood-plasma samples, according to the WHO.

The work in Sigal’s lab involved testing 14 blood plasma samples collected from a dozen people who had been given a second Pfizer-BioNTech shot about a month earlier to gauge the concentration of antibodies needed to neutralize, or block, the virus. Levels of neutralizing antibodies against omicron were notably higher in a subset of participants who had a bout of Covid about a year earlier, Sigal said.

That’s “promising,” said John Wherry, director of the institute for immunology at the University of Pennsylvania’s Perelman School of Medicine. It likely means an additional dose of the currently available vaccines would boost levels of neutralizing antibodies to omicron, though more data are needed to confirm that, he said.

The results are preliminary and exact levels of immune escape may change, Sigal said. The results, along with those from other labs studying the strain, will help determine whether existing Covid vaccines need to be altered to protect against omicron.

Sigal’s laboratory was the first to isolate the beta variant, a strain of the coronavirus that was identified in South Africa in late 2020. He noted that omicron escapes antibody neutralization more readily than beta, which had been considered the most immune evasive of the variants of concern detected previously.

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Business

European markets troubled as omicron Covid variant fears return

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LONDON — European stocks are expected to open lower on Thursday as concerns persist over the omicron Covid variant.

The U.K.’s FTSE index is seen opening 80 points lower at 7,086, Germany’s DAX 176 points lower at 15,295, France’s CAC 40 down 91 points at 6,797 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 326 points lower at 26,026, according to data from IG.

Major markets across Asia-Pacific and the U.S. had bounced back Wednesday despite fears about the new variant and the Federal Reserve mulling a quicker-than-planned taper.

But global stocks appear to be struggling to regain momentum amid continuing uncertainty around the risks posed by the new omicron Covid variant, first spotted in South Africa last week and designated a “variant of concern” by the World Health Organization.

The WHO said on Wednesday that at least 23 countries from five of six WHO regions have now reported cases of omicron, “and we expect that number to grow.” It also noted that hospitalizations are rising across South Africa, but said it’s still too early to know whether the omicron variant is driving an increase in severe Covid-19 cases.

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Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Thursday while U.S. stock index futures inched higher during overnight trading after the CDC confirmed the first known case of the omicron variant in the U.S., sending stocks tumbling. The first case of the heavily mutated variant was detected in northern California.

Data releases include the euro zone unemployment rate for October and producer prices for the same month. There are no major earnings Thursday.

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World

WHO warns that new virus variant poses ‘very high’ risk

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GENEVA (AP) — The World Health Organization warned Monday that the global risk from the omicron variant is “very high” based on the early evidence, saying the mutated coronavirus could lead to surges with “severe consequences.”

The assessment from the U.N. health agency, contained in a technical paper issued to member states, amounted to WHO’s strongest, most explicit warning yet about the new version that was first identified days ago by researchers in South Africa.

It came as a widening circle of countries around the world reported cases of the variant and moved to slam their doors in an act-now-ask-questions-later approach while scientists race to figure out just how dangerous the mutant version might be.

Japan announced it is barring entry to all foreign visitors, joining Israel in doing so. Morocco banned all incoming flights. Other countries, including the U.S. and members of the European Union, have moved to prohibit travelers arriving from southern Africa.

WHO said there are “considerable uncertainties” about the omicron variant. But it said preliminary evidence raises the possibility that the variant has mutations that could help it both evade an immune-system response and boost its ability to spread from one person to another.

“Depending on these characteristics, there could be future surges of COVID-19, which could have severe consequences, depending on a number of factors, including where surges may take place,” it added. “The overall global risk … is assessed as very high.”

The WHO stressed that while scientists are hunting evidence to better understand this variant, countries should accelerate vaccinations as quickly as possible.

While no deaths linked to omicron have been reported so far, little is known for certain about the variant, including whether it is more contagious, more likely to cause serious illness or more able to evade vaccines. Last week, a WHO advisory panel said it might be more likely to re-infect people who have already had a bout with COVID-19.

Scientists have long warned that the virus will keep finding new ways to exploit weaknesses in the world’s vaccination drive, and its discovery in Africa occurred in a continent where under 7% of the population is vaccinated.

“The emergence of the omicron variant has fulfilled, in a precise way, the predictions of the scientists who warned that the elevated transmission of the virus in areas with limited access to vaccine would speed its evolution,” said Dr. Richard Hatchett, head of CEPI, one of the founders of the U.N.-backed global vaccine sharing initiative COVAX.

Spain on Monday became one of the latest countries to report its first confirmed omicron case, detected in a traveler who returned Sunday from South Africa after making a stopover in Amsterdam.

While the majority of omicron infections recorded around the world have been in travelers arriving from abroad, cases in Portugal and Scotland have raised fears that the variant may already be spreading locally.

“Many of us might think we are done with COVID-19. It’s not done with us,” warned Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO’s director-general.

Days after the variant sent a shudder through the financial world nearly two years into the pandemic that has killed over 5 million people, markets had a mixed reaction Monday. European stocks rebounded and Wall Street opened higher, while Asian markets fell further.

U.S. President Joe Biden called the omicron variant a cause for concern but “not a cause for panic.” He said he is not considering any widespread U.S. lockdown and instead urged mask-wearing and vaccinations, even as a federal judge blocked his administration from enforcing a requirement that thousands of health care workers in 10 states get the shot.

Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, reacted to the potential threat by urging everyone 18 and older to get booster shots, because “strong immunity will likely prevent serious illness.” Earlier this month, the U.S. opened boosters to all adults but recommended them only for those 50 and older or people in long-term care.

The omicron infections have underscored the difficulty in keeping the virus in check in a globalized world of jet travel and open borders. Yet many countries are trying to do just that, against the urging of the WHO, which noted that border closings often have limited effect and can wreak havoc on lives and livelihoods.

Some have argued that such restrictions can buy valuable time to analyze the new variant.

While the initial global response to COVID-19 was criticized as slow and haphazard, the reaction to the omicron variant came quickly.

“This time the world showed it is learning,” said EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, singling out South African President Cyril Ramaphosa for praise. “South Africa’s analytic work and transparency and sharing its results was indispensable in allowing a swift global response.”

Late last week, von der Leyen successfully pushed the 27-nation EU to agree to ban flights from seven southern African nations, similar to what many other countries are doing.

Cases have been reported in such places as Canada, Germany, Britain, Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Portugal, where authorities identified 13 omicron infections among members of the Belenenses professional soccer team.

Taking no chances, Japan, which has yet to detect any omicron cases, reimposed border controls that it had eased earlier this month.

“We are taking the step as an emergency precaution to prevent a worst-case scenario in Japan,” Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said.

Israel likewise decided to bar entry to foreigners, and Morocco said it would suspend all incoming flights for two weeks.

Britain reacted by expanding its COVID-19 booster program to everyone 18 and older, making millions more people eligible. Up until now, booster shots were available only to those 40 and over and people particularly vulnerable to the virus. The U.K. has reported about a dozen omicron cases.

Despite the global worry, doctors in South Africa are reporting patients are suffering mostly mild symptoms so far. But they warn that it is early. Also, most of the new cases are in people in their 20s and 30s, who generally do not get as sick from COVID-19 as older patients.

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Yamaguchi reported from Tokyo, Casert from Brussels. Associated Press journalists from around the world contributed to this report.

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Follow AP’s coverage of the coronavirus pandemic at https://apnews.com/hub/coronavirus-pandemic

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Omicron COVID variant: “Reason to be worried,” but South African scientists feel punished for their good work

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Durban, South Africa — The Omicron variant of the coronavirus that was first detected in South Africa has now spread to at least 14 countries. Some experts believe it’s likely already reached the U.S., but as governments including America’s race to impose travel restrictions, scientists are racing to figure out how much more dangerous than previous strains this mutated virus really is.

From Monday, the U.S. was imposing restrictions on travelers from South Africa and seven other countries in the region. Already the new variant has been confirmed in Canada, with two cases in people who recently arrived from Nigeria — not one of the nations under the new U.S. travel restrictions.

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former head of the Food and Drug Administration, told CBS News’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday that the new variant was likely already in the United States, but he said the government was better positioned to detect cases of the new strain than it was a year ago.


Gottlieb says Omicron variant “almost definit…

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But as CBS News correspondent Debora Patta reports from the lab in Durban, South Africa where scientists first identified the Omicron variant, many in the country believe that rather than being applauded, they are being punished for their excellent science.

Within 36 hours of discovering the new strain, scientists in the government lab in Durban alerted the world and began testing current vaccines against it.

Now, just days later, the masks may be back on, but the gloves are off in the global fight to stop the new strain. In just a matter of days, Omicron has become globally recognized, and it’s stalking the world.

As of Monday, most travelers from southern African nations are barred from entering the United States, and restrictions have been renewed for travel from southern Africa to many European countries.


U.S. bans travel from African countries

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Europe was already the epicenter of an alarming surge in COVID-19 cases before Omicron was detected, and top White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said on Sunday that the U.S. “certainly” has “the potential to go into a fifth wave” of high infections if enough people don’t come forward for vaccination and booster shots.

Israel has gone a step further than restricting travel for certain nations, prohibiting all foreign travelers from entering the country.

But with the variant already confirmed on five continents, South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa is calling for travel bans to be reversed, saying they have no basis in science.

“These restrictions are completely unjustified and unfairly discriminate against our country,” he said.


Fauci warns of “potential” for new COVID-19 w…

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But world leaders have committed to slowing the spread while they wait for the science — because there’s a lot we don’t yet know. Omicron may be more contagious than previous strains, but its severity is still unclear. It contains more than 30 mutations, prompting concern among some scientists that it could have resistance to the current vaccines.

“I think there’s good reason to be worried. I don’t think that means that we’re powerless,” Professor Anne Van Gottberg of South Africa’s Institute for Communicable Diseases told CBS News, stressing that answers were coming. “We need to collect data. We need to investigate and understand this variant.”

Scientists in South Africa who started working first with the Omicron variant and available vaccines won’t get lab results for at least two weeks, but doctors in the country are seeing an increase in reinfections in people who’ve already had COVID-19.

Fauci told “CBS Mornings” co-host Gayle King on Monday that so far, “we should not be freaking out.”


Fauci on new variant of concern Omicron

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“We should be doing the things that we know work when you’re dealing with a pandemic virus. It’s not the time to panic. We should be concerned, and our concern should spur us to do the things that we know work,” he said, stressing the need for people to get vaccinated and then get their booster shots.

Fauci explained that the concern over the new variant comes from the number and type of mutations found around the “spike protein,” the part of the virus molecule that allows it to attach itself to human cells. He said the high number of mutations and where they were found “suggests that this would be more transmissible, and also suggests that it might evade some of the immune parameters that we have,” such as antibody and plasma treatments, and the current vaccines. 

“It appears to be spreading very readily and has a transmission advantage,” Fauci said, referring to the early information provided by South African scientists. He said one of the key things “we don’t know right now” is whether the new variant causes more severe COVID-19 symptoms than previous strains. 

Fauci lauded the South African scientists who discovered Omicron for being “extremely cooperative and helpful” as the world races for a deeper understanding of Omicron. 

A healthcare worker conducts a PCR COVID-19 test on a traveler at OR Tambo International Airport in Johannesburg, South Africa, November 27, 2021, after a number of countries banned flights from South Africa following the discovery of a new COVID-19 variant Omicron.

PHILL MAGAKOE/AFP/Getty


While overall infection numbers are still low in the South Africa, Omicron accounts for most of the more than 2,000 new daily cases in South Africa, fueling the concern about it potentially being more infectious.

One of South Africa’s top infectious disease experts warned on Monday that, given the rapid rise of Omicron cases, the daily infection rate in the country could triple within just days.

“I am expecting we will top over 10,000 cases by the end of the week per day,” Dr Salim Abdool Karim said during an online press briefing by the Health Ministry.

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Omicron Covid variant symptoms? Here’s what we know so far

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Member of the medical staff work in the hallways of the Intensive Care Unit where Covid-19 patients are hospitalised at the Etterbeek-Ixelles Hospital on April 6, 2021, in Brussels.

JOHN THYS | AFP | Getty Images

Covid symptoms linked to the new omicron variant have been described as “extremely mild” by the South African doctor who first raised the alarm over the new strain.

Dr. Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association, told the BBC on Sunday that she started to see patients around Nov.18 presenting with “unusual symptoms” that differed slightly to those associated with the delta variant, which is the most virulent strain of the virus to date and globally dominant.

“It actually started with a male patient who’s around the age of 33 … and he said to me that he’s just [been] extremely tired for the past few days and he’s got these body aches and pains with a bit of a headache,” she told the BBC.

The patient didn’t have a sore throat, she said, but more of a “scratchy throat” but no cough or loss of taste or smell — symptoms that have been associated with previous strains of the coronavirus.

Coetzee said she tested the male patient for Covid, and he was positive, as was his family, and then said she saw more patients that day presenting with the same kinds of symptoms that differed from the delta variant.

This prompted her to raise the alarm with South Africa’s vaccine advisory committee, of which she is a member.

Other patients she had seen so far with the omicron variant had also experienced what she described as “extremely mild” symptoms, and she added that her colleagues had noted similar cases.

“What we are seeing clinically in South Africa — and remember I’m at the epicenter of this where I’m practicing — is extremely mild, for us [these are] mild cases. We haven’t admitted anyone, I’ve spoken to other colleagues of mine and they give the same picture.”

Investigations ongoing

The WHO has said it will take weeks to understand how the variant may affect diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines.

Coetzee’s initial observations are only based on a very small number of cases and experts are worried about omicron’s large number of mutations. Preliminary evidence suggests the strain has an increased risk of reinfection, according to the WHO.

Read more: WHO labels new Covid strain, named omicron, a ‘variant of concern,’ citing possible increased reinfection risk

Early data suggests the variant is spreading in South Africa more rapidly than previous variants did and that the variant, known formally as B.1.1.529, could be starting to trigger a new wave of infections, according to analysis by the Financial Times.

It could take a while to fully understand what specific symptoms, if any, are attributable to the new omicron variant on a wider scale.

Covid symptoms have changed since the virus first emerged in China in late 2019, according to experts tracking the disease. The “alpha” and “delta” variants, first discovered in the U.K. and India, were seen to cause different symptoms, for example, with the latter causing more headaches, a runny nose and fever.

The U.S. CDC has highlighted the variety of Covid symptoms that have been reported, noting that “anyone can have mild to severe symptoms” that may appear 2-14 days after exposure to the virus.

The list of symptoms the CDC lists includes fever or chills, a cough, fatigue, shortness of breath or difficulty breathing, muscle or body aches, headache, new loss of taste or smell, sore throat, congestion or a runny nose, nausea or vomiting and diarrhea.

Unnecessary panic?

A swathe of countries have now temporarily banned travel from several southern African countries where the variant has been found, a move slammed as a “knee-jerk, draconian” reaction by South Africa’s health minister on Friday.

Asked by the BBC’s Andrew Marr whether countries like the U.S., U.K., Israel and EU were “panicking unnecessarily,” Coetzee stressed that the omicron variant had already likely spread to those countries.

“I think you already have it there in your country without even knowing it so I would say at this stage, definitely. Two weeks on, maybe we will say something different,” she added.

Margaret Harris, spokesperson for the WHO, told CNBC Monday that “we have South Africa to thank” for raising the alarm over the new variant, which has already been found in the U.K., France, Israel, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Australia, Canada and Hong Kong, but not yet in the U.S.

The WHO’s Harris said the organization didn’t like to see travel restrictions but understood that countries needed to take precautions based on their own epidemiological situations and risk-based analysis of the current data.

The U.N. health agency said on Monday that the delta variant is still responsible for most of the current infections globally and, as such, was still its biggest concern.

“Over 99% of cases around the world are due to the delta variant and more deaths are occurring in the unvaccinated,” WHO Chief Scientist Soumya Swaminathan told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.

“I think that’s our priority while we wait to find out more about [the omicron] variant.”

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