Tag Archives: Society

Highly Vaccinated States Keep Worst Covid-19 Outcomes in Check as Delta Spreads, WSJ Analysis Shows

In the first big test of Covid- 19 vaccines during a Covid-19 surge, places with higher vaccination rates are dodging the worst outcomes so far, while cases and hospitalizations surge in less-vaccinated areas.

There are more tests yet to come, including when cold weather forces people in the well-vaccinated Northeast back indoors. But as the highly contagious Delta strain tears through the country, the trends thus far suggest vaccines can turn Covid-19 into a less dangerous, more manageable disease.

“Vaccines definitely make a difference,” said David Dowdy, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

A Wall Street Journal analysis shows sharp geographic divides in vaccination and hospitalization levels, with every state that has an above-average vaccine rate showing below-average hospitalizations, including in well-vaccinated New England. In the South, meanwhile, fewer people are vaccinated on average and hospitalization rates are climbing faster.

The Delta-driven surge is unlike its predecessors in the U.S. because the variant spreads more easily and because it is confronting a partially vaccinated population. The U.S. needed an extra month to reach President Biden’s goal of getting 70% of adults at least one shot by July 4. While vaccination rates are picking up, most states remain behind that mark.

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She can’t hug her nephews because millions of Americans refuse to get the Covid-19 vaccine



CNN
—  

All Kimberly Cooley wants to do is hug her 6-year-old nephews – and she can’t because tens of millions of Americans are choosing not to get vaccinated against Covid-19.

Cooley received two doses of Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine in February, but blood tests show the shots didn’t give her antibodies against the virus.

That’s because, like millions of Americans, Cooley takes medications to suppress her immune system. A study by Johns Hopkins researchers that published Monday found that vaccinated immunocompromised people like her are 485 times more likely to end up in the hospital or die from Covid-19 compared to the general population that is vaccinated.

“It’s pure selfishness,” Cooley, a public relations specialist, said of those who have chosen not to be vaccinated. “That’s what it is – it’s pure selfishness when you won’t do your part in the midst of a global health crisis.”

Cooley, 39, is especially vulnerable, since she lives in Montgomery County, Mississippi, where only 37% of residents are fully vaccinated.

She’s taken to Twitter to implore people to roll up their sleeves.

“Mississippi is HOT right now and I’m not referring to the heat,” she tweeted in May. “70% of the state is NOT vaccinated. SEVENTY! Just #TakeTheShot”

Not much has changed in two months – currently, 66% of Mississippi’s population is not fully vaccinated.

Based on an estimate by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, about 9 million Americans are immunocompromised, either because of diseases they have or medications they take.

It has been known for months that Covid-19 vaccines might not work well for this group. The hope was that vaccination rates overall would be so high so that the “herd” would protect them.

But it didn’t work out that way, because about a third of eligible people in the US have not received even one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine.

Monday’s study in the journal Transplantation looked at infection, hospitalization and death rates for 18,215 fully vaccinated organ transplant patients in the US, Croatia and France. Transplant patients take medications to suppress their immune system so they won’t reject their new organs.

The study found that these fully vaccinated organ transplant recipients were 82 times more likely to get a breakthrough Covid-19 infection compared to the vaccinated general population, and 485 times more likely to be hospitalized or die from Covid-19.

Among the 18,215 transplant patients in the study, 151 had breakthrough infections, 87 were hospitalized with Covid-19 and 14 died from the virus.

“This is a stark reminder that there are many vulnerable people around us who have been unable to achieve the same levels of protection that the rest of us have been able to achieve, and as a result are at much higher risk of getting sick or dying from this terrible virus,” said Dr. Dorry Segev, a transplant surgeon at Johns Hopkins Medicine and lead author of the study.

Those numbers terrify Fred Kolkhorst and his wife, Nancy Marlin, both 68.

Kolkhorst, a retired professor at San Diego State University, and Marlin, the university’s former provost, have both received transplants – a new heart for him and a new kidney for her.

Courtesy Fred Kolkhorst and Nancy Marlin

Nancy Marlin, who had a kidney transplant, and Fred Kolkhorst, who had a heart transplant, are “still living a quarantined life.”

Blood tests showed that neither developed antibodies after two doses of the Moderna vaccine. Kolkhorst received a third dose of the vaccine, and his antibodies increased, but it’s unclear if they went up enough to protect him. His wife recently received a third shot, but her doctors tell her it’s unlikely it will work because of the specific immune suppression drug that she takes.

The couple live in a county where 71% of the population age 12 and up are fully vaccinated, but they know that might not be enough to fully protect them if their vaccines don’t work.

Now the couple has been forced to skip gatherings with family and friends and keep mostly to themselves.

“We don’t go out very much,” Kolkhorst said. “We’re still living a quarantined life, and it’s been a year and a half.”

Kolkhorst has heard unvaccinated people argue that it’s their right not to get the shot.

“It’s difficult for me to understand how people talk about personal freedoms, but they’ve impinged on our ability to go out and mingle and be with other people,” he said. “I try not to get mad at them, but it’s so disappointing and frustrating to those of us who can’t get out and be a part of life without being fearful.”

Once, he tried to convince an unvaccinated friend to take the shot. He failed.

“Sometimes you just can’t fix stupid,” he said.

Cooley has also had those conversations with family members and friends.

They remember when she nearly lost her life to liver failure because of a case of autoimmune hepatitis, and what she went through to get a liver transplant in 2018.

They know that she takes care of her mother, who is also immunocompromised. They know that her mother’s mother died of Covid-19 in October.

And they know how much she wants to hug her nephews. She did hug them back in February, two weeks after her second shot, but that was before three blood tests – she’s a part of a study at the University of Mississippi Medical Center – showed the vaccines did not give her antibodies.

Even though these friends and relatives know her story, they still refuse to be vaccinated.

“In my conversations with them, I say, ‘Remember what my life was like before the transplant and during the transplant? Remember how you told me to let you know if there was anything you could do for me?’ Well, this is what I need you to do,” Cooley said.

Some of them did then go out and get a shot, she said, but most of them did not.

“Knowing everything I went through and what I’m going through now, still they could not do this one thing for me,” she said.

“Observation: People are willing to get the vaccine to save their jobs but not for the sake of their parents or ‘loved’ ones. Let that sink in,” she tweeted in March.

Now she can only dream of the day her nephews can come to her house for a sleepover, something they did regularly before Covid. She imagines how they’ll have pizza together and watch the new “Jumanji” and Marvel movies.

For now, she has given up asking friends to get vaccinated, and she stopped imploring people on Twitter, too.

“At this point there is nothing I can say and nothing I can do to change their minds,” she said.

CNN’s Sarah Braner and Justin Lape contributed to this story.



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Courtney Stodden Said Chrissy Teigen Should “Stop Griping” And “Do Some Charity Work” After Chrissy Complained Again That “Cancel Club” Is “Like A Secret Society” – BuzzFeed News

  1. Courtney Stodden Said Chrissy Teigen Should “Stop Griping” And “Do Some Charity Work” After Chrissy Complained Again That “Cancel Club” Is “Like A Secret Society” BuzzFeed News
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  3. Chrissy Teigen tearfully thanks fans for ‘piles’ of condolence letters in honor of baby Jack Yahoo Life
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Greg Knapp: New York Jets assistant coach has died following bicycle crash

Mark Brown/Getty Images

Greg Knapp previously worked with the Atlanta Falcons



CNN
—  

New York Jets assistant coach Greg Knapp has died, five days after being involved in a bicycling crash, the Knapp family announced on Thursday. He was 58.

Nicknamed “Knapper,” he “was called back home to Heaven, where he will be reunited with his Dad,” the family said in a statement.

“Those of us who were so blessed to have known him, know that he would have wanted even this moment to be a teachable one,” the statement says. “So this is it…’Live every day as if it’s your last, and love those around you like it won’t last!’”

Knapp collided with a single motorist on Saturday in California, according to the San Ramon Police Department. After a preliminary investigation, authorities said they do not suspect drugs and/or alcohol were a factor in the incident. Police said the driver of the vehicle cooperated with the investigation.

San Ramon is about 30 miles east of Oakland.

Knapp was hired by the Jets to be the passing-game specialist in January after spending the last three seasons with the Atlanta Falcons as the quarterbacks’ coach. Knapp helped the Denver Broncos win the Super Bowl in the 2015 season when he was the quarterbacks’ coach for four seasons. The coaching veteran also spent 10 seasons as an offensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers, Atlanta Falcons, Seattle Seahawks and the then-Oakland Raiders.

“The loss of a loved one is always a challenge but is harder when it is completely unexpected,” Jets head coach Robert Saleh said in a statement. “Charlotte, Jordan, Natalie, and Camille please accept our most sincere condolences. Greg had such an inner peace about him that people always seemed to gravitate towards. He lived life in a loving way that helped him connect with people from all walks of life in a unique way. In his short time here, I believe the people in this organization had a chance to experience that connection. Greg, thank you for all that you have shared with us, you will be missed brother.”

“In his short time with us, Greg had an immediate influence on those who had the pleasure of spending the smallest amount of time with him,” Jets Chairman Woody Johnson said. “His legacy is not only working with some of the brightest quarterbacks the league has ever seen, but the countless others across this world he has had an indelibly positive influence on.”



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He spent two decades in prison for church murders he didn’t commit. Newly discovered DNA evidence just helped exonerate him



CNN
—  

A man who spent two decades in prison for a 1985 double homicide during church bible study has been exonerated, with all charges against him dropped.

Newly discovered DNA evidence from a hair sample shows Dennis A. Perry, 59, “may have been acquitted if that evidence had been available” during his 2003 trial for the murders of Harold and Thelma Swain in Georgia, according to a news release from Glynn County District Attorney Keith Higgins.

Stephen B. Morton/Atlanta Journal-Constitution/AP

Dennis Perry, center, standing beside wife Brenda Perry gets emotional while thanking the team from the Georgia Innocence Project after they worked to get his release after 20 years behind bars.

Perry, formerly of Camden County, Georgia, was sentenced to two consecutive life sentences following his arrest in 2000. His subsequent conviction was overturned in July, and Higgins’ office announced Monday that prosecutors will not re-try him.

“It took a long time, but I never gave up,” Perry said in a news release Monday. “I knew that eventually someone else would see the truth, and I’m so grateful to the Georgia Innocence Project and King & Spalding [law firm] for bringing the truth to light. This indictment has been hanging over my head for over 20 years, and it’s such a relief to finally not have to worry about being accused of this awful thing.”

The DNA evidence involves a pair of eyeglasses found at the crime scene in 1985, according to the news release. Investigators found that the glasses had two hairs belonging to the killer, stuck in the hinges.

In February 2020, private investigators working for Perry were able to get a hair sample from a Brantley County woman who is the mother of a man implicated, but not charged, in the 1985 Swain murders, according to the district attorney’s news release. Her hair sample was then examined by the same lab that did the DNA testing on the hair found in the eyeglasses in 2001 and those profiles matched, prompting the Georgia Bureau of Investigation to reopen the case in light of the new evidence.

Mitochondrial DNA testing was done using those hair samples prior to Perry’s 2003 trial and excluded him as a possible contributor of the hairs; however, he was convicted using circumstantial evidence at trial, the release said.

On the evening on their murders, the Swains were in bible study at Rising Daughter Baptist Church in Waverly, according to a news release from Georgia Innocence Project.

Before 9 p.m., an attendee left the meeting and found a man inside the church’s vestibule as she was leaving who asked to speak with Harold Swain, 66. She went back inside the prayer meeting to get him and left the church, Higgins’ news release said. Witnesses said they heard a “scuffle” followed by four gunshots.

Thelma, 63, heard the gunshots and ran to the vestibule – that’s when the killer shot her once. By the time the other meeting attendees ran to the back of the church, the killer had left.

The case quickly went cold, Higgins’ release said, but it was reopened by the Camden County Sheriff’s Office in 1998, according to a release from the Georgia Innocence Project.

Within a week, authorities identified Perry as the main suspect based mainly on testimony from an informant who wanted a $25,000 reward and ultimately was paid $12,000 in exchange for testimony – something that was never disclosed to Perry’s attorneys, the release from Georgia Innocence Project said.

Higgins said he consulted with the GBI and the victim’s family, and both agreed with his decision not to prosecute Perry.

“There are times when seeking justice means righting a wrong,” Higgins, who took office Jan. 1, said. “While this case was prosecuted prior to my administration, the new evidence indicates that someone else murdered Harold and Thelma Swain. Mr. Perry is now, and has been since July 2020, a free man. We will continue to examine all the evidence in the case — new and old — as we determine what the next step will be in this investigation.”

Since his release from prison, Perry has been spending time at home with his wife, Brenda, and reconnecting with friends and family, trying to recover and readjust to this new chapter of his life, the news release from Georgia Innocence Project said.

Thirty-six states and Washington, DC, have laws on the books that offer compensation for exonerees, according to the Innocence Project. Georgia isn’t one of them.

The federal standard to compensate those who are wrongfully convicted is a minimum of $50,000 per year of incarceration, plus an additional amount for each year spent on death row. Of the 36 states with compensation laws, nine offer more than $50,000 per year – including Washington, which offers $200,000 per year, according to the Innocence Project.

Late last month, Democratic Rep. Maxine Waters of California introduced the Justice for Exonerees Act, which would amend the federal statute to increase the compensation amount to a minimum of $70,000 per year.

CNN’s Rebekah Riess and Chenelle Terry contributed to this report.

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City children have better mental health and cognition if they live near woodlands


London
CNN
—  

City children who have daily exposure to woodland have better cognitive development and a lower risk of emotional and behavioral problems, according to a new study published in Nature Sustainability.

Researchers studied 3,568 adolescents aged 9 to 15 at 31 schools across London over four years to examine the associations between natural environments and cognitive development, mental health and overall well-being.

Using vegetation satellite data, researchers calculated adolescents’ daily exposure to “green space,” like woods, meadows and parks, and “blue space,” including rivers, lakes and the sea, within 50 meters (164 feet), 100 meters (328 feet), 250 meters (820 feet) and 500 meters (1,640 feet) of their home and school.

A higher daily exposure to woodland was associated with higher scores for cognitive development – measured through a series of memory-based tasks – and a 17% lower risk of emotional and behavioral problems two years later, researchers said, adding that they adjusted for other variables, such as age, ethnic background, gender, parental occupation, type of school and air pollution.

Exposure to green space was associated with a beneficial contribution to young people’s cognitive development, researchers explained. The same associations were not seen with exposure to blue space – though the sample of children studied generally had low access to it, researchers noted in the study published Monday.

Lead author Mikaël Maes said that, while the team had established an association between woodlands and better cognitive development and mental health, there is no causal link between the two – something that could be studied in the future.

“Currently, the mechanisms why humans receive mental health or cognition benefits from nature exposure is unknown. Scientific research on the role of the human senses is key to establish a causal link,” Maes, a PhD researcher at University College London’s school of Geography, Biosciences and Imperial College London School of Public Health, told CNN.

Maes said in an email that one possible explanation for the link between woodland, cognition and mental health could be that audio-visual exposure through vegetation and animal abundance – which are more common in woodland – provides psychological benefits.

However, there were limitations to the study. The team said the research assumed that living or going to school near natural environments meant more exposure to them, which may not always be the case. Area crime rates were also not taken into account.

Researchers also noted that more than half of participants had parents who had a managerial or professional occupation, meaning that adolescents in other socio-economic groups could be underrepresented in the study. Pupils with special educational needs could also react differently than peers represented in the research.

“The findings are impressive and do highlight the importance of time outside on such a scale,” Carol Fuller, head of the Institute of Education at the University of Reading, told CNN via email.

“That said, while the findings are encouraging, what we don’t get from the study is a sense of why we see the results that we do? While the authors speculate as to the reasons, there is a crucial need to engage directly with young people to understand the results from the perspective of those who were taking part,” Fuller, who was not associated with the research, said.

“The research adds to a growing body of work about the importance of being outside on things like confidence, resilience, and self-efficacy,” she said.

“It makes sense that if you can develop these skills, things like cognition and learning outcomes will then improve. Being outside allows young people to learn a range of different skills and engage in diverse experiences, important for developing these underlying traits,” she added.

Stella Chan, professor of Evidence-based Psychological Treatment at the University of Reading, said in an email to CNN that the research offered “novel insights” with “potential to inform how we may better support young people’s intellectual development, health, and wellbeing.”

“As the authors note, just because someone lives close to natural environments does not mean that they could or would access this space, and of course how people use the space is another big question to ask,” Chan, who was not involved in the study, said.

“Building on these findings, it would be important to investigate how factors that are associated with exposure to natural environments, such as physical activity and hanging out with friends, may help enhance teenagers’ resilience, health, and wellbeing,” Chan said.

The great outdoors has long been linked to good physical and mental health – a 2015 study showed that people who take walks in nature report fewer repetitive negative thoughts.

And a 2019 study found that spending two hours a week soaking up nature – be it woodland, park or beach – gives a positive boost to health and well-being, both mentally and physically.

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Society is right on track for a global collapse, new study of infamous 1970s report finds

Human society is on track for a collapse in the next two decades if there isn’t a serious shift in global priorities, according to a new reassessment of a 1970s report, Vice reported

In that report — published in the bestselling book “The Limits to Growth” (1972) — a team of MIT scientists argued that industrial civilization was bound to collapse if corporations and governments continued to pursue continuous economic growth, no matter the costs. The researchers forecasted 12 possible scenarios for the future, most of which predicted a point where natural resources would become so scarce that further economic growth would become impossible, and personal welfare would plummet.

The report’s most infamous scenario — the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario — predicted that the world’s economic growth would peak around the 2040s, then take a sharp downturn, along with the global population, food availability and natural resources. This imminent “collapse” wouldn’t be the end of the human race, but rather a societal turning point that would see standards of living drop around the world for decades, the team wrote.

Related: How much time does humanity have left?

So, what’s the outlook for society now, nearly half a century after the MIT researchers shared their prognostications? Gaya Herrington, a sustainability and dynamic system analysis researcher at the consulting firm KPMG, decided to find out. In the November 2020 issue of the Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology, Herrington expanded on research she began as a graduate student at Harvard University earlier that year, analyzing the “Limits to Growth” predictions alongside the most current real-world data.

Herrington found that the current state of the world — measured through 10 different variables, including population, fertility rates, pollution levels, food production and industrial output — aligned extremely closely with two of the scenarios proposed in 1972, namely the BAU scenario and one called Comprehensive Technology (CT), in which technological advancements help reduce pollution and increase food supplies, even as natural resources run out.

While the CT scenario results in less of a shock to the global population and personal welfare, the lack of natural resources still leads to a point where economic growth sharply declines — in other words, a sudden collapse of industrial society.

“[The BAU] and CT scenarios show a halt in growth within a decade or so from now,” Herrington wrote in her study. “Both scenarios thus indicate that continuing business as usual, that is, pursuing continuous growth, is not possible.”

The good news is that it’s not too late to avoid both of these scenarios and put society on track for an alternative — the Stabilized World (SW) scenario. This path begins as the BAU and CT routes do, with population, pollution and economic growth rising in tandem while natural resources decline. The difference comes when humans decide to deliberately limit economic growth on their own, before a lack of resources forces them to.

“The SW scenario assumes that in addition to the technological solutions, global societal priorities change,” Herrington wrote. “A change in values and policies translates into, amongst other things, low desired family size, perfect birth control availability, and a deliberate choice to limit industrial output and prioritize health and education services.”

On a graph of the SW scenario, industrial growth and global population begin to level out shortly after this shift in values occurs. Food availability continues to rise to meet the needs of the global population; pollution declines and all but disappears; and the depletion of natural resources begins to level out, too. Societal collapse is avoided entirely.

This scenario may sound like a fantasy — especially as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels soar to record highs. But the study suggests a deliberate change in course is still possible.

Herrington told Vice.com the rapid development and deployment of vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic is a testament to human ingenuity in the face of global crises. It’s entirely possible, Herrington said, for humans to respond similarly to the ongoing climate crisis — if we make a deliberate, society-wide choice to do so.

“It’s not yet too late for humankind to purposefully change course to significantly alter the trajectory of [the] future,” Herrington concluded in her study. “Effectively, humanity can either choose its own limit or at some point reach an imposed limit, at which time a decline in human welfare will have become unavoidable.”

Read more about the report at Vice.com.

Originally published on Live Science.

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FDA grants priority review to Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine; decision on approval expected by January 2022



CNN
—  

Pfizer and BioNTech announced Friday that the US Food and Drug Administration has granted priority review designation to the companies’ application for approval of their Covid-19 vaccine. The goal date for a decision from the FDA is January 2022, the companies said.

The typical priority review process allows six months, but FDA approval could come before the goal date.

Andy Slavitt, former White House senior adviser for the Covid-19 response, told CNN earlier this month that approval could happen in July, but acknowledged it’s a complex process.

“There’s a lot of moving pieces. It’s not as easy,” Slavitt told CNN’s Alisyn Camerota. “Hopefully in the next four to five weeks, and I think that will be very, very good news.”

Pfizer and BioNTech completed the rolling submission for the vaccine’s Biologics License Application for people ages 16 and older in May.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS STORY.

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Delta variant surges in Middle East and North Africa as region braces for ‘catastrophic consequences’


Abu Dhabi
CNN
—  

The Middle East and North Africa is witnessing a surge in Covid-19 cases aggravated by the Delta variant of the virus – and it may get worse over coming weeks – according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

An increase in coronavirus cases has been reported in Libya, Iran, Iraq and Tunisia as the region edges toward a “critical point,” WHO’s Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office said Wednesday. Across the region, more than 11 million cases have been recorded in total since the start of the pandemic.

WHO also warned of possible “catastrophic consequences” of the Muslim Eid al-Adha holiday, which begins in the week of July 20 and is traditionally celebrated with large or medium-sized social gatherings.

Tunisia, one of the Arab world’s worst-hit countries by the Delta variant, has reimposed lockdowns. It has also appealed to Arab Gulf countries for critical aid, as its health care sector faces “catastrophe,” according to the Tunisian government.

Saudi Arabia has announced that it will send Tunisia 1 million vaccine doses, and the UAE has also donated half a million vaccines.

The North African country now has the highest Covid-19 mortality rate in the Eastern Mediterranean region as well as on the African continent after the Delta variant circulated widely in the country, according to WHO. Oxygen beds and intensive care unit beds in Tunisia are at 90% and 95% occupancy levels respectively.

“Between 8,000 and 9,500 cases are currently being reported every day, with wide circulation of the Delta variant. In less than one week, the number of deaths almost doubled, from 119 deaths on 5 July to 189 deaths on 8 July,” WHO said, referring to Tunisia.

Fethi Belaid/AFP/Getty Images

The body of a Covid-19 victim is placed into a casket at the Ibn al-Jazzar hospital in the Tunisian city of Kairouan on July 4, 2021.

Iran, which has been one of the worst-hit countries in the region since the start of the pandemic, nearly broke its daily record of cases after reporting more than 23,000 new infections on Thursday. The country’s daily average tally almost doubled over the last four weeks, and the number of daily deaths has increased over the past two weeks, WHO said.

Last week, Iraq, where less than 1% of the population has received a vaccine dose, reported its highest daily tally since the start of the pandemic, according to the country’s health ministry. This week, a fire wreaked havoc on a hospital treating coronavirus patients, killing more than 92 people and further underscoring the poor state of the country’s health sector.

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MIT’s 1972 prediction of the collapse of society is on track to happen by 2040, study reveals

In 1972, a team at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) predicted that humanity’s pursuit of economic growth without regard for environmental and society costs would lead to society collapsing by the mid 21st century – a new study finds this may become a reality.

Gaya Herrington, Sustainability and Dynamic System Analysis Lead at KPMG, undertook the task of proving or disproving MIT’s claims and used a world simulation model that analyzed how our world has progressed from 1972.

Herrington looked at 10 key variables, such as population, industrial output and persistent pollution, and determined our business-as-usual mentality will spark a decline of economic growth within the next decade. 

However, the data revealed an even bleaker future – our world could experience a total societal collapse by 2040.

A total societal collapse would mean an abrupt decline in quality of life, food production, industrial output and ultimately the human population. 

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The new study looked at 10 key variables, such as population, industrial output and persistent pollution, and determined our business-as-usual mentality will spark a decline of economic growth within the next decade

MIT made their prediction using a computer program called World1 and looked back as far as 1900 and all the way up to 2060.

The data was produced on long sheets of white paper and appeared as graph lines.

In a video of the 1972 findings, MIT’s Jerry Foster, who developed World1, revealed his innovation to the world and used MIT’s work to do so.

Foster showed how population has increased from the 1900 to the turn of the century.  

However, the data revealed an even bleaker future – our world could experience a total societal collapse by 2040. A total societal collapse would mean an abrupt decline in quality of life, food production, industrial output and ultimately the human population 

The line starts out low and then keeps climbing until a few years after 2000 where it then petered out.

Another examples he used was quality of life, which increased rapidly up until the 1940s and then diminished until 2020 when it sees another uptick.

However, the model also identified 2020 as a tipping point for civilization.

‘At around 2020, the condition of the planet becomes highly critical. If we do nothing about it, the quality of life goes down to zero,’ Foster said in a 1973 ABC segment.

‘Pollution becomes so seriously it will start to kill people, which in turn will cause the population to diminish, lower than it was in the 1900. At this stage, around 2040 to 2050, civilized life as we know it on this planet will cease to exist.’

Herrington used the same model, but the third version of the simulation called World3, and looked at 10 key variables: population, fertility rates, mortality rates, industrial output, food production, services, non-renewable resources, persistent pollution, human welfare, and ecological footprint, as first reported on by VICE.  

The researcher found the data from the world simulation program aligns with two particular scenarios, ‘BAU2’ (business-as-usual) and ‘CT’ (comprehensive technology). ‘BAU2 and CT scenarios show a halt in growth within a decade or so from now,’ reads the study

She found that the latest data most closely aligns with two particular scenarios, ‘BAU2’ (business-as-usual) and ‘CT’ (comprehensive technology).

‘BAU2 and CT scenarios show a halt in growth within a decade or so from now,’ concludes the study published in in the Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology. 

‘Both scenarios thus indicate that continuing business as usual, that is, pursuing continuous growth, is not possible. 

‘Even when paired with unprecedented technological development and adoption, business as usual as modelled by LtG [Limits of Growth, the MIT book based on its study] would inevitably lead to declines in industrial capital, agricultural output, and welfare levels within this century.’ 

Although the 1972 simulation suggests society doomed, Herrington’s study adds that technological progress and investing more in public services could shift us away from collapsing. 

However, humanity will have to put in a strong effort in the next decade to change the bleak future.  

‘At this point therefore, the data most aligns with the CT and BAU2 scenarios which indicate a slowdown and eventual halt in growth within the next decade or so, but World3 leaves open whether the subsequent decline will constitute a collapse,’ the study concludes. 

‘Although the ‘stabilized world’ scenario ‘tracks least closely, a deliberate trajectory change brought about by society turning toward another goal than growth is still possible. The LtG work implies that this window of opportunity is closing fast.’

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