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Deposit drain from smaller banks into financial giants like JPMorgan Chase has slowed, sources say – CNBC

  1. Deposit drain from smaller banks into financial giants like JPMorgan Chase has slowed, sources say CNBC
  2. Fed: Deposits at all U.S. banks steady at $15.26T CNBC Television
  3. Hundreds of banks would be vulnerable in SVB-style runs, researchers say The Washington Post
  4. Nearly $100 billion in deposits pulled from banks; officials call system ‘sound and resilient’ CNBC
  5. Apps, crypto, and even Starbucks cards: Deposit fragmentation has been on a decade-long mission to bring down banking–and it’s not done yet Fortune
  6. View Full Coverage on Google News

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Alzheimer’s treatment slowed cognitive decline in closely watched trial

An investigational Alzheimer’s disease treatment from Biogen and Eisai slowed the rate of cognitive decline by 27% in a clinical trial, the companies said Tuesday, meeting the goals of a closely tracked study and strengthening the drug’s case for approval as early as January.

The positive result is welcome news for the millions of people living with Alzheimer’s and a big win for Eisai and Biogen, giving the companies a potential blockbuster product in the intravenous medicine, called lecanemab. For Biogen, which presided over the disastrous rollout of the Alzheimer’s treatment Aduhelm, the potential approval of lecanemab presents a rare second chance at a multibillion-dollar market.

The lecanemab study is an “important milestone for Eisai in fulfilling our mission to meet the expectations of the Alzheimer’s disease community,” said Eisai CEO Haruo Naito, in a statement.

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In the study, which enrolled roughly 1,800 patients with early-stage Alzheimer’s, lecanemab outperformed placebo. The treatment also met its secondary goals of reducing toxic plaques in the brain and slowing patients’ decline on three other measures of memory and function.

About 21% of patients treated with lecanemab experienced brain swelling visible on PET scans, a side effect associated with drugs of its type. Less than 3% of those patients had symptomatic cases of swelling, the companies said.

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The study, called CLARITY-AD, was the largest conducted to date to test the long-debated theory that clearing toxic brain plaques, called amyloid, might slow the pace of Alzheimer’s by slowing the pace of memory loss or delaying the onset of dementia.

Lecanemab is the first treatment of its kind to affirm the so-called amyloid hypothesis in a large, Phase 3 clinical trial after two decades of consistent failure and murkier outcomes from similar, experimental drugs.

“This is a statistically robust and positive study but the treatment effect is small,” said Lon Schneider, ​​a physician and Alzheimer’s expert at the Keck School of Medicine of the University of Southern California. Schneider cautioned that experts will need to take a much closer look at the lecanemab data when presented in more detail, but based on the results described in Eisai’s press release, he believes lecanemab is likely to win approval from the Food and Drug Administration. Schneider was not involved in the study.

The FDA is already considering lecanemab for a conditional approval, promising to make a decision by Jan. 6 based on preliminary evidence from a smaller study showing the drug’s effect on amyloid in patients’ brains. Eisai now plans to add the more definitive results from the CLARITY-AD study to its application, aiming to win full approval in the summer and persuade Medicare to walk back a restrictive reimbursement policy set in the aftermath of Aduhelm.

CLARITY-AD might be sufficient to win over the FDA, but lecanemab’s future depends on whether physicians, payers, and patients find the supporting data convincing. The study used a metric called the Clinical Dementia Rating sum of boxes, or CDR-SB, which measures six cognitive domains including memory, problem solving, and personal care, and produces scores ranging from 0 to 18, with higher numbers indicating more severe dementia.

In the 18-month trial, patients who received lecanemab did .45 points better on the test than those receiving placebo, a result that hit the threshold of statistical significance, meaning it’s unlikely to be the result of random chance.

Aduhelm, in a comparable clinical trial, slowed decline by 22%, outperforming placebo by .39 points on the same measure. A second, identical study failed.

Lecanemab was administered as an intravenous infusion given twice per month. Approximately 25% of the 1,800 participants in the CLARITY-AD study were Hispanic and African-Americans, making it one of the more diverse populations ever enrolled in an Alzheimer’s clinical trial.

For lecanemab, statistical significance does not necessarily make for a life-changing medicine. Alzheimer’s researchers have spent years debating just what small changes in CDR-SB scores mean for patients with the disease. A fractional improvement on an 18-point scale could be imperceptible in real life. On the other hand, the metric is not an interval scale, meaning its numerical differences aren’t proportionate to one another. Going from a 1 to a 1.5 on the CDR-SB could mean no longer being able to drive on one’s own, while going from a 14 to a 14.5 would likely make little difference for a patient already in the throes of dementia.

To Michael Greicius, a neurologist at Stanford University who studies and treats Alzheimer’s, the rate of brain swelling in the lecanemab study could be confounding. Once patients present with the common side effect, called ARIA, everyone involved in the trial can be fairly certain they are receiving the drug and not placebo, exposing the study to bias. A true test of lecanemab’s benefits would be looking only at whether it helped the patients who didn’t test positive for ARIA, Greicius said.

“I think if anything this is going to be on the cusp of what’s considered minimally clinically significant, and it may be below that,” said Greicius, who was not involved in the study. “That’s where we need to see more data.”

Experts said any definitive ruling on lecanemab’s value would require more detailed results from CLARITY-AD, which Eisai has promised to present at a medical conference in November.

Wall Street had only moderate expectations for CLARITY-AD, with analysts setting a low probability of success and declaring that even a marginal benefit would count as a positive for Biogen and Eisai. Biogen’s share price has fallen by nearly 50% since Aduhelm’s 2021 approval, and Eisai has lost about 60% of its value.

“Today’s announcement gives patients and their families hope that lecanemab, if approved, can potentially slow the progression of Alzheimer’s disease, and provide a clinically meaningful impact on cognition and function,” said Michel Vounatsos, Biogen’s CEO, in a statement.

The results kick off what will be a transformational nine months for Alzheimer’s research. By the end of this year, Roche will have data from a pair of two-year studies on gantenerumab, another antibody that reduces brain plaques. And in the first half of 2023, Eli Lilly expects to have results from a Phase 3 trial on donanemab, a similar treatment that met its goals in a small study last year.

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“Time Expansion” – Our Perception of Time Has Slowed

How the pandemic and social isolation have altered how we perceive the passage of time.

In the early stages of the epidemic, the majority of those who were confined to their homes said that they felt that time moved more slowly and that they felt lonely as a result.

According to a report in the journal Science Advances, the

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China’s Economy Slowed Late Last Year on Real Estate Troubles

BEIJING — Construction and property sales have slumped. Small businesses have shut because of rising costs and weak sales. Debt-laden local governments are cutting the pay of civil servants.

China’s economy slowed markedly in the final months of last year as government measures to limit real estate speculation hurt other sectors as well. Lockdowns and travel restrictions to contain the coronavirus also dented consumer spending. Stringent regulations on everything from internet businesses to after-school tutoring companies have set off a wave of layoffs.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics said Monday that economic output from October through December was only 4 percent higher than during the same period a year earlier. That represented a further deceleration from the 4.9 percent growth in the third quarter, July through September.

The world’s demand for consumer electronics, furniture and other home comforts during the pandemic has produced record-setting exports for China, preventing its growth from stalling. Over all of last year, China’s economic output was 8.1 percent higher than in 2020, the government said. But much of the growth was in the first half of last year.

The snapshot of China’s economy, the main locomotive of global growth in the last few years, adds to expectations that the broader world economic outlook is beginning to dim. Making matters worse, the Omicron variant of the coronavirus is now starting to spread in China, leading to more restrictions around the country and raising fears of renewed disruption of supply chains.

The slowing economy poses a dilemma for China’s leaders. The measures they have imposed to address income inequality and rein in companies are part of a long-term plan to protect the economy and national security. But officials are wary of causing short-term economic instability, particularly in a year of unusual political importance.

Next month, China hosts the Winter Olympics in Beijing, which will focus an international spotlight on the country’s performance. In the fall, Xi Jinping, China’s leader, is expected to claim a third five-year term at a Communist Party congress.

With growth in his country slowing, demand slackening and debt still at near-record levels, Mr. Xi could face some of the biggest economic challenges since Deng Xiaoping began lifting the country out of its Maoist straitjacket four decades ago.

“I’m afraid that the operation and development of China’s economy in the next several years may be relatively difficult,” Li Daokui, a prominent economist and Chinese government adviser, said in a speech late last month. “Looking at the five years as a whole, it may be the most difficult period since our reform and opening up 40 years ago.”

China also faces the problem of rapid aging, which could create an even greater burden on China’s economy and its labor force. The National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday that China’s birthrate fell sharply last year and is now barely higher than the death rate.

As costs for many raw materials have risen and the pandemic has prompted some consumers to stay home, millions of private businesses have crumbled, most of them small and family owned.

That is a big concern because private companies are the backbone of the Chinese economy, accounting for three-fifths of output and four-fifths of urban employment.

Kang Shiqing invested much of his savings nearly three years ago to open a women’s clothing store in Nanping, a river town in southeastern China’s Fujian Province. But when the pandemic hit a year later, the number of customers dropped drastically and never recovered.

As in many countries, there has been a broad shift in China toward online shopping, which can undercut stores by using less labor and operating from inexpensive warehouses. Mr. Kang was stuck paying high rent for his store despite the pandemic. He finally closed it in June.

“We can hardly survive,” he said.

Another persistent difficulty for small businesses in China is the high cost of borrowing, often at double-digit interest rates from private lenders.

Chinese leaders are aware of the challenges private companies face. Premier Li Keqiang has promised further cuts in taxes and fees to help the country’s many struggling small businesses.

On Monday, China’s central bank made a small move to reduce interest rates, which could help reduce slightly the interest costs of the country’s heavily indebted real estate developers. The central bank pushed down by about a tenth of a percentage point its interest rate benchmarks for one-week and one-year lending.

The building and fitting out of new homes has represented a quarter of China’s economy. Heavy lending and widespread speculation have helped China erect the equivalent of 140 square feet of new housing for every urban resident in the past two decades.

This autumn, the sector faltered. The government wants to limit speculation and deflate a bubble that had made new homes unaffordable for young families.

China Evergrande Group is only the largest and most visible of a lengthening list of real estate developers in China that have run into severe financial difficulty lately. Kaisa Group, China Aoyuan Property Group and Fantasia are among other developers that have struggled to make payments as bond investors become more wary of lending money to China’s real estate sector.

As real estate companies try to conserve cash, they are starting fewer construction projects. And that has been a big problem for the economy. The price of steel reinforcing bars for the concrete in apartment towers, for example, dropped by a quarter in October and November before stabilizing at a much lower level in December.

The decline in home prices in smaller cities has hurt the value of people’s assets, which in turn made them less willing to spend. Even in Shanghai and Beijing, apartment prices are no longer surging.

There have been faint hints of renewed government support for the real estate sector in recent weeks, but no sign of a return to lavish lending by state-controlled banks.

The financial distress of Evergrande “is a signal that money will be pushed from real estate to the stock market,” said Hu Jinghui, an economist who is the former chairman of the China Alliance of Real Estate Agencies, a national trade group. “The policies can be loosened, but there can be no return to the past.”

The slowdown in the housing market has also hurt local governments, which rely on land sales as a key source of revenue.

The International Monetary Fund estimates that government land sales each year have been raising money equal to 7 percent of the country’s annual economic output. But in recent months, developers have curtailed land purchases.

Starved of revenue, some local governments have halted hiring and cut bonuses and benefits for civil servants, prompting widespread complaints on social media.

In Hangzhou, the capital of Zhejiang Province, a civil servant’s complaint of a 25 percent cut in her pay spread quickly on the internet. The municipal government did not respond to a fax requesting comment. In northern Heilongjiang Province, the city of Hegang announced that it would not hire any more “low-level” workers. City officials deleted the announcement from the government’s website after it drew public attention.

Some governments have also raised fees on businesses to try to make up for the shortfall.

Bazhou, a city in Hebei Province, collected 11 times as much money in fines on small businesses from October through December as it did in the first nine months of last year. Beijing criticized the city for undermining a national effort to reduce the cost of doing business.

Strong overseas demand for China’s exports, particularly consumer goods, spurred a national wave of new factory investments, up 13.5 percent last year from 2020.

Some areas of consumer spending have been fairly robust, notably the luxury sector, with sports cars and jewelry selling well. Retail sales rebounded 12.5 percent last year compared to pandemic-depressed levels in 2020. But retail sales fell in December compared to November, as coronavirus restrictions kept some shoppers at home.

Few anticipate that the government will allow a severe economic downturn this year, ahead of the Communist Party congress. Economists expect the government to soften its restrictions on lending and step up government spending.

“The first half of the year will be challenging,” said Zhu Ning, deputy dean of the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance. “But then the second half will see a rebound.”

Li You contributed research.

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Great Resignation slowed, job openings jumped

A help wanted sign is posted in the window of hardware store on September 16, 2021 in San Francisco, California.

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

The so-called Great Resignation lost some steam in October, with the total number of workers leaving their jobs either due to dissatisfaction or better opportunities elsewhere declined, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

Job quitters declined by 4.7%, falling to 4.16 million from 4.36 million, the department said in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The rate as a share of the workforce fell from 3% to 2.8%.

The JOLTS report is closely watched at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere for signs of labor market tightness.

While the quits rate dropped, the level of job openings accelerated to just below its all-time high. That number totaled 11.03 million, an increase of 4.1% as the rate rose to 6.9% from 6.7%.

The number of openings exceeded those looking for jobs by 3.6 million in October. JOLTS data runs a month behind the more closely followed nonfarm payrolls report, which showed a gain of 546,000 for the month.

The coronavirus pandemic has seen quits surge to what had been record highs. Even with October’s decline, the level is still 24% above where it was a year ago.

Economists generally see the exodus as greater opportunity in the pandemic-era jobs market spurred by many workers still reluctant to come off the sidelines either because of child-care issues or health concerns.

Through November, the labor force was still about 2.4 million smaller than what it had been in February 2020. The total employment level was more than 3.5 million down.

In October, total hires edged lower from their level in the previous month, while separations also were down.

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Why the Tuskegee Study Slowed Vaccinations of Black Americans

TUSKEGEE, Ala. — By the time vaccines for the coronavirus were introduced late last year, the pandemic had taken two of Lucenia Williams Dunn’s close friends. Still, Ms. Dunn, the former mayor of Tuskegee, contemplated for months whether to be inoculated.

It was a complicated consideration, framed by the government’s botched response to the pandemic, its disproportionate toll on Black communities and an infamous 40-year government experiment for which her hometown is often associated.

“I thought about the vaccine most every day,” said Ms. Dunn, 78, who finally walked into a pharmacy this summer and rolled up her sleeve for a shot, convinced after weighing with her family and doctor the possible consequences of remaining unvaccinated.

“What people need to understand is some of the hesitancy is rooted in a horrible history, and for some, it’s truly a process of asking the right questions to get to a place of getting the vaccine.”

In the first months after the vaccine rollout, Black Americans were far less likely than white Americans to be vaccinated. In addition to the difficulty of obtaining shots in their communities, their hesitancy was fueled by a powerful combination of general mistrust of the government and medical institutions, and misinformation over the safety and efficacy of the vaccines.

But a wave of pro-vaccine campaigns and a surge of virus hospitalizations and deaths this summer, mostly among the unvaccinated and fueled by the highly contagious Delta variant, have narrowed the gap, experts say. So, too, have the Food and Drug Administration’s full approval of a vaccine and new employer mandates. A steadfast resistance to vaccines in some white communities may also have contributed to the lessening disparity.

While gaps persist in some regions, by late September, according to the most recent survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation, a roughly equal share of Black, white and Hispanic adult populations — 70 percent of Black adults, 71 percent of white adults and 73 percent of Hispanic adults — had received at least one vaccine dose. A Pew study in late August revealed similar patterns. Federal data shows a larger racial gap, but that data is missing demographic information for many vaccine recipients.

Since May, when vaccines were widely available to a majority of adults across the country, monthly surveys by Kaiser have shown steady improvement in vaccination rates among Black Americans.

How the racial gap was narrowed — after months of disappointing turnout and limited access — is a testament to decisions made in many states to send familiar faces to knock on doors and dispel myths about the vaccines’ effectiveness, provide internet access to make appointments and offer transportation to vaccine sites.

In North Carolina, which requires vaccine providers to collect race and ethnicity data, hospital systems and community groups conducted door-to-door canvassing and hosted pop-up clinics at a theme park, a bus station and churches. Over the summer, the African American share of the vaccinated population began to more closely mirror the African American share of the general population.

In Mississippi, which has one of the country’s worst vaccination rates and began similar endeavors, 38 percent of people who have started the vaccine process are Black, a share that is roughly equal to the Black share of Mississippi’s population.

And in Alabama, public awareness campaigns and rides to vaccination sites helped transform dismal inoculation rates. A store owner and county commissioner in Panola, a tiny rural town near the Mississippi border, led the effort to vaccinate nearly all of her majority Black community.

Today, about 40 percent of Black Alabama residents — up from about 28 percent in late April — have had at least one dose, a feat in a state that has ranked among the lowest in overall vaccination rates and highest in per capita deaths from Covid-19. About 39 percent of white people in the state have had one dose, up from 31 percent in late April.

Health officials and community leaders say that those who remain unvaccinated have pointed to concerns about how quickly the vaccines were developed and what their long-term health effects might be, plus disinformation such as whether they contain tracking devices or change people’s DNA. The damage wrought by the government-backed trials in Tuskegee, in which Black families were misled by health care professionals, also continues to play a role in some communities, helping to explain why some African Americans have still held out.

“It’s less about saying, ‘This racial ethnic group is more hesitant, more unwilling to get vaccinated,’ and more about saying, ‘You know, this group of people in this given area or this community doesn’t have the information or access they need to overcome their hesitancy,’” said Nelson Dunlap, chief of staff for the Satcher Health Leadership Institute at the Morehouse School of Medicine.

When the U.S. Public Health Service began what it called the “Tuskegee Study of Untreated Syphilis in the Negro Male,” 600 Black men — 399 with syphilis and 201 without the disease — were told they would be treated for so-called bad blood in exchange for free medical exams, meals and burial insurance. In reality, treatment was withheld. Even after penicillin was discovered as an effective treatment, most did not receive the antibiotic.

The experiment began in 1932 and did not stop until 1972, and only after it was exposed in a news article. The surviving men and the heirs of those who had died were later awarded a settlement totaling about $10 million, and the exposure of the study itself eventually led to reforms in medical research. Still, the damage endured.

“Few families escaped the study. Everyone here knows someone who was in the study,” said Omar Neal, 64, a radio show host and former Tuskegee mayor who counts three relatives in the study and who wavered on a vaccine before finally getting one, his mind changed by the rising number of deaths. “And the betrayal — because that is what the study was — is often conjured whenever people are questioning something related to mistrusting medicine or science.”

Rueben C. Warren, director of the National Center for Bioethics in Research and Health Care at Tuskegee University, said the study served as a real example in the long line of medical exploitation and neglect experienced by Black Americans, eroding trust in the government and health care systems.

What to Know About Covid-19 Booster Shots

The F.D.A. authorized booster shots for a select group of people who received their second doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine at least six months ago. That group includes: Pfizer recipients who are 65 or older or who live in long-term care facilities; adults who are at high risk of severe Covid-19 because of an underlying medical condition; health care workers and others whose jobs put them at risk. People with weakened immune systems are eligible for a third dose of either Pfizer or Moderna four weeks after the second shot.

Regulators have not authorized booster shots for recipients of the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines yet, but an F.D.A. panel is scheduled to meet to weigh booster shots for adult recipients of the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines.

The C.D.C. has said the conditions that qualify a person for a booster shot include: hypertension and heart disease; diabetes or obesity; cancer or blood disorders; weakened immune system; chronic lung, kidney or liver disease; dementia and certain disabilities. Pregnant women and current and former smokers are also eligible.

The F.D.A. authorized boosters for workers whose jobs put them at high risk of exposure to potentially infectious people. The C.D.C. says that group includes: emergency medical workers; education workers; food and agriculture workers; manufacturing workers; corrections workers; U.S. Postal Service workers; public transit workers; grocery store workers.

It is not recommended. For now, Pfizer vaccine recipients are advised to get a Pfizer booster shot, and Moderna and Johnson & Johnson recipients should wait until booster doses from those manufacturers are approved.

Yes. The C.D.C. says the Covid vaccine may be administered without regard to the timing of other vaccines, and many pharmacy sites are allowing people to schedule a flu shot at the same time as a booster dose.

“The questions being asked about the vaccine should be understood in the larger context of historic inequities in health care,” Dr. Warren said. “The hope, of course, is they finally decide to get the vaccine.”

A national campaign led by the Ad Council and Covid Collaborative, a coalition of experts, tackled the hesitation. This summer, a short-form documentary including descendants of the men in the Tuskegee study was added to the campaign.

When Deborah Riley Draper, who created the short-form documentary, interviewed descendants of the Tuskegee study, she was struck by how shrouded it was in myths and misconceptions, such as the false claim that the government had injected the men with syphilis.

“The descendants’ message was clear that African Americans are as much a part of public health as any other group and we need to fight for access and information,” she said.

In Macon County, Ala., which has a population of about 18,000 and is home to many descendants of the Tuskegee trials, about 45 percent of Black residents have received at least one vaccine dose. Community leaders, including those who are part of a task force that meets weekly, attribute the statistic, in part, to local outreach and education campaigns and numerous conversations about the difference between the Tuskegee study and the coronavirus vaccines.

For months, Martin Daniel, 53, and his wife, Trina Daniel, 49, resisted the vaccines, their uncertainty blamed in part on the study. Their nephew Cornelius Daniel, a dentist in Hampton, Ga., said he grew up hearing about the research from his uncle, and saw in his own family how the long-running deception had sown generational distrust of medical institutions.

Mr. Daniel, 31, said he overcame his own hesitation in the spring because the risks of working in patients’ mouths outweighed his concerns.

His uncle and aunt reconsidered their doubts more slowly, but over the summer, as the Delta variant led to a surge in hospitalizations across the South, the Daniels made vaccination appointments for mid-July. Before the date arrived, though, they and their two teenage children tested positive for the coronavirus.

On July 6, the couple, inseparable since meeting as students on the campus of Savannah State University, died about six hours apart. Their children are now being raised by Mr. Daniel and his wife, Melanie Daniel, 32.

“We truly believe the vaccine would have saved their lives,” Ms. Daniel said.

Mitch Smith contributed reporting.

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