Tag Archives: Sensing

Quantum sensing for gravity cartography

Experimental overview

A light-pulse atom interferometer is conceptually similar to an optical interferometer, with the roles of light and matter interchanged. Atoms, acting as matter waves, are subjected to a sequence of light pulses that impart momentum to them, acting analogously to mirrors and beamsplitters. Applying a light pulse for an appropriate length of time will cause a transition between the ground and excited states of an atom, accompanied by the absorption and stimulated emission of a photon. Such a pulse, commonly referred to as a π pulse, acts as an atom optic mirror owing to the momentum that is transferred. Similarly, tuning the light pulse such that it has only a 50% transition probability, commonly referred to as a π/2 pulse, acts as a beamsplitter through providing a momentum kick to only half of the atomic probability distribution. A matter-wave equivalent of the optical Mach–Zehnder interferometer can then be created through applying a π/2–π–π/2 pulse sequence with an evolution time, T, between the pulses. The resulting space-time area enclosed by the atomic trajectories (Extended Data Fig. 1b) is proportional to the local gravitational acceleration, which can then be measured from the relative population of the two atomic states after the final pulse.

A gravity gradiometer utilizes two such interferometers offset vertically and probed simultaneously with the same pulse sequence. This suppresses common-mode effects, such as noise from vibration or phase changes due to variations in tilt with respect to the gravity of the Earth, which are indistinguishable from the gravity anomalies of interest according to Einstein’s equivalence principle. Our device consists of two subunits (Extended Data Fig. 1a), a sensor head and a control system, with light and electrical signals transferred through a 5-m umbilical. The gradiometer is shown in Extended Data Fig. 2, with an overview of its size, weight and power characteristics.

The sensor head features a vacuum system with dual MOT preparation and interrogation regions in an hourglass configuration, with all light delivered to the atoms through on-axis counter-oriented telescopes. The light is delivered in each direction, with portions of the beam being redirected towards the atom-trapping region using in-vacuum mirrors, to form the radial cooling beams in each MOT. The central portion passes through, such that each input provides the vertical laser cooling beam in a given direction for both MOTs. This makes all fluctuations in intensity common for the radial cooling beams (preventing lateral offsets), and, through use of a Gaussian beam shape, provides a higher intensity for the vertical beams to better saturate the radiation pressure force in this direction. This results in a greatly improved stability and robustness of the laser cooling process, reducing fluctuations in temperature or atom cloud position (Fig. 1b) without the need for excessive laser powers that would inhibit field operation. In a comparable test system, this provided a reduction in average cloud centre-of-mass motion to (0.14 ± 0.09) mm as compared to (1.19 ± 0.86) mm over an hour in similar conditions with a six-beam MOT. Both MOT regions have two coils, each formed of 92 turns of 1-mm-Kapton-coated copper wire wound around an aluminium former (fixed using epoxy), with a slit to prevent eddy currents. The coils have a radius of 43 mm and separation of 56 mm, to produce a linear field gradient of 12.5 G cm−1 at a driving current of 2.5 A. These are located around the vacuum system, such that the strong magnetic field axis of their quadrupole field is along the direction of travel of the cooling beam axis. In addition, two sets of rectangular coil pairs, each having 20 turns, are located around the MOT regions. These have a separation of 100 mm, and dimensions of 320 mm in the vertical and 90 mm in the horizontal, and can be used to compensate residual magnetic fields, or apply offsets. In practice, no compensation fields are used for the molasses phase. In the lower chamber, one coil pair is used to apply a 0.63 G field to adjust the atom cloud horizontal position by approximately 0.5 mm in the MOT phase, improving the interferometer contrast. A bias coil42 is positioned around the system to define a quantization axis and remove degeneracy between magnetic sublevels, with other coils being switched off after the magneto-optical trapping phase. This has a variable pitch shape to account for edge effects and improve field uniformity over the atom interferometry region. The system is enclosed in a magnetic shield that provides 25 dB attenuation of the external field. The in situ magnetic field profile is measured (through spectroscopy of the Raman transition) as being homogeneous to below 5% across the atom interferometry region, limited by internal magnetic field sources from vacuum pumps.

The laser system consists of telecom lasers that are frequency doubled to 780 nm, to be near the D2 line of rubidium-87 (refs. 43,44). The light for laser cooling is generated by passing the laser output through an electro-optic modulator (EOM) and generating a sideband at a frequency of approximately 1.2 GHz output from the carrier. This is used to provide a locking signal using the ({|F}=3 > to |{F}^{{prime} }=4 > ) transition in rubidium-85, placing the carrier frequency such that it is tuneable around resonance with the ({|F}=2 > to |{F}^{{prime} }=3 > ) transition of rubidium-87 to provide the cooling light. A separate EOM is used to provide repumping light resonant with the ({|F}=1 > to |{F}^{{prime} }=2 > ) transition. Atom interferometry is realized through two-photon stimulated Raman transitions. The Raman laser used to drive these has a linewidth of 73 kHz and is locked with an offset of 1.9 GHz to the ({|F}=2 > to |{F}^{{prime} }=3 > ) transition. The second Raman frequency is generated using a pair of EOMs operating at 6.835 GHz. Performing the differential measurement suppresses phase noise that may arise owing to optical path-length changes between the two Raman beams (such as those due to vibration and thermally induced changes in the refractive index of fibres). This allows the two beams to be delivered independently without the need for a phase lock between them, facilitating an implementation in which the modulated spectrum is applied to only one of the input beams. This avoids parasitic Raman transitions that give rise to systematic offsets and dephasing when using conventional modulation-based schemes, such as those including a retro-reflected beam31. To realize a practical implementation of space-time area reversal30, also known as wavevector reversal, the system has an EOM in each input direction of the Raman beams, and the modulation signal is applied to one arm in each measurement. This allows the direction of the momentum kick imparted to the atoms to be changed between measurements, by changing which arm the modulation signal is applied to using a radiofrequency switch (see Extended Data Fig. 1). The contributions to the interferometer phases due to acceleration under gravity are sensitive to the direction of the recoil imparted by the light, whereas those arising from many other effects, such as those due to magnetic fields, are not. This allows these effects to be removed when interleaved measurements are performed in the two recoil directions.

The light is delivered to the sensor head using polarization-maintaining optical fibres, with separate fibres for the cooling and Raman beams. These fibres deliver the light to optical telescopes that collimate the light at the desired beam size. The cooling beams have a waist of 24 mm, and contain a typical maximum power of 130 mW. These impinge on the in-vacuum mirrors, which are 15-mm right-angle prisms (Thorlabs, MRA15-E03), to deliver the horizontal cooling beams. The mirrors are mounted to a titanium structure (attached using Epo-Tek H21D adhesive) in a cross configuration such that there is a 15-mm aperture in their centre. The central portion of the cooling beams passes through these apertures to provide the sixth beam required for the opposite MOT. The Raman beams are overlapped with the cooling beams using a polarizing beamsplitter cube, such that they are then delivered along the same beam axis as the cooling light. The Raman beams, each containing a typical maximum power of 300 mW, have their waist set to 6.2 mm to limit aperturing and diffraction on the central aperture of the in-vacuum mirrors, allowing the Raman beams to pass through the system without being redirected by the prisms. Although aperturing is limited on the mirrors in the current instrument, it may be desirable to use a larger Raman beam than the aperture in more compact systems or those aiming to further reduce dephasing induced by laser beam inhomogeneity. Diffraction from the aperture would need to be given due consideration if pursuing this, as would the potential for further light shifts due to, in this case, one interferometer seeing extra light fields from mirror reflections. The polarization of the light is set to the appropriate configuration for cooling or driving Raman transitions through use of voltage-controlled variable retarder plates in the upper and lower telescopes used to deliver the light. The intensity of the Raman beams is actively stabilized using feedback from a photodiode to control acousto-optic modulators, which are also used to produce the laser pulses.

The experimental sequence starts by collecting approximately 108 rubidium-87 atoms in each MOT from a background vapour over 1–1.5 s. Molasses cooling is then used to reduce the upper- and lower-cloud temperatures to (2.86 ± 0.09) μK and (3.70 ± 0.20) μK, respectively (see Fig. 1b). The differences in temperature arise from differences in local residual magnetic fields, arising primarily from the magnetic shield geometry, and small differences in optical alignment. Optical state and velocity selection is performed to select only atoms in the ({|F}=1,{m}_{{rm{F}}}=0 > ) magnetic sublevel and desired velocity class. This is achieved through application of π pulses and a series of blow-away pulses to remove atoms in undesired states and velocity classes. Atom interferometry is then performed with a pulse separation of T = 85 ms and π-pulse length of 4 µs. The interferometers are read out using bistate fluorescence detection to determine the atomic state population ratios of the |F = 2> and |F = 1> ground states, for which (2.7 ± 0.1) × 105 and (1.7 ± 0.1) × 105 atoms participate in the upper and lower interferometers, respectively, with a typical measurement rate of 0.7 Hz. The differential phase, from which the gravity gradient is derived, is extracted by plotting the upper interferometer outputs against the lower interferometer outputs, to form a Lissajous plot as shown in the inset of Fig. 2. In addition to random noise arising from vibration, we add a deliberate random phase value, from between 0 and 2π, to the final pulse of the interferometer. At ellipse phases that do not correspond to a circle, a clustering of points around the extremal points of the ellipse is visible even for uniform noise.

The quantum projection noise of the system based on the participating atom number is approximately 44 E/√Hz. The total noise budget includes contributions from further terms, and is shown in Extended Data Table 1, alongside relevant systematics observed during the survey. The noise budget was investigated through computer simulation of noise processes, compared to experimental data, and ellipse fitting.

Survey practice and processing of the measurement data

For each measurement on the survey, 600 runs of the atom interferometer were typically taken with the sensor head in one location (with the horizontal position being measured using a total station, Leica TS15, and the vertical position from the road surface being approximately 0.5 m for the lower sensor and 1.5 m for the upper sensor), giving twelve 25-point ellipses in each of the interferometer directions and therefore 12 separate estimates of the gravity gradient. Repeat measurements were taken on each measurement position, with typically three points on each position. A measurement was taken at a base station between each measurement point, with the final base-station measurement for one location used as the first for the next. The quality of fitting to each ellipse was identified using the error metric, (varepsilon ), defined as

$$varepsilon =frac{left(frac{1}{a}+frac{1}{c}right)}{2}{left(frac{1}{N}mathop{sum }limits_{i=1}^{N}{L}_{i}^{2}right)}^{frac{1}{2}},$$

in which N is the number of data points, L is the minimum distance between each data point and a point on the ellipse, and a and c correspond to an ellipse defined parametrically by equations (x=a{rm{sin }}theta +b) and (y=c{rm{sin }}left(theta +varphi right)+d), respectively. Errors in the ellipse fitting are sensitive to changes in the ellipse opening angle47. On the basis of numerical simulations, we estimate this effect to be less than a few parts in one thousand; therefore, a 100 E change would be subject to an error of less than 0.5 E. Such errors are therefore small compared to other errors. Such a 100 E change in gradient would correspond to an 11.6 mrad change in the ellipse shape. This phase shift can be compared to a 2π measurement range, meaning that measurement range of the instrument in this configuration is relevant to the majority of practical features of interest (these being typically below 400 E).

Ellipse fits found to have (varepsilon > 0.05) were automatically discarded. This resulted in 98.4% of all data being usable in normal operation, representing a favourable data up time compared to that of similar conventional geophysical devices.

To process the data, a straight line was fitted to the base-station points, with this line then being subtracted from all data points. This is standard practice to remove drift in geophysical surveys. The leading source of drift is believed to be due to the a.c. Stark shift, with this also being relevant owing to the difference in the temperature of the two clouds. The gravity gradient value is then taken as the average of the measurement points, resulting in an estimate of the difference in gradient between the measurement location and the base station. Furthermore, the variations in the data points are used to make an estimate of the error in the difference value. When multiple measurements from the same location were combined, a weighted average was used, giving less weight to measurements with greater errors. The weighting factor is proportional to the reciprocal of the variance of each measurement48. The data, as shown in Fig. 3a, are not corrected for terrain or effects such as tides. Tidal effects are not corrected, being negligible through the differential measurement of the gravity gradient.

The average of the gravity gradient error found across the measurement positions of the survey is 17.9 E. Comparing this to an approximate signal size of 150 E gives an approximate signal-to-noise ratio of 8.

Inference from gravity gradiometer data

Bayesian inference is a framework within which prior beliefs can be updated with information contained in data. For a model parameter vector ((theta )) and a data vector ((d))

$$pleft(theta |dright)=frac{pleft(d|theta right)pleft(theta right)}{pleft(dright)},$$

in which (pleft(d|theta right)) is the likelihood, (pleft(theta right)) is the prior, (pleft(dright)) is a normalization constant and (pleft(theta |dright)) is the posterior distribution.

The likelihood function provides the misfit between the measured data, (d), and the modelled data values calculated from the model parameter vector, (theta ). The model used here is that of a three-dimensional cuboid35; the free model parameters are shown in Extended Data Fig. 3, along with the functional form of the respective prior distributions. The rationale behind the chosen prior distributions is detailed in Extended Data Table 2. The total uncertainty for each measurement point is calculated using the Pythagorean sum of the standard error and the model uncertainty random variable multiplied by the average of the standard error across all of the measurement positions.

The probabilistic Python package pymc3 (ref. 49) is used to implement the cuboid model, define the model parameter prior distributions and sample the posterior distribution, using a no U-turn sampler50. Extended Data Fig. 4 shows the Bayesian posterior distribution for select model parameters.

The parameter posterior distributions represent the updated beliefs about the model parameters, given the measurement data. To aid interpretation of the posterior distribution, the POE36 is calculated, which represents the spatial probability of the anomaly underground, given the model and prior distributions (as shown in Fig. 3c). The horizontal position of the tunnel centre is determined as (0.19 ± 0.19) m along the survey line, with the distribution being approximately Gaussian. The depth from the origin, defined in the vertical using the lowest point on the survey line, to the centre is (1.7 −0.59/+2.3) m. At the horizontal position of the tunnel, the distance to the surface from the origin is approximately 0.19 m, meaning that the total distance from the surface to the tunnel centre is (1.89 −0.59/+2.3) m. From the tunnel geometry, this places the top of the tunnel at approximately 0.89 m depth from the surface.

The signals arising from local features are used to create a distinct site model. This is used to provide an estimate of the expected shape of the gravity gradient signal over the site, for comparison with the inference output. These features include the tunnel of interest, basements from nearby buildings, walls and a drain. They are shown in the scale drawing of Fig. 3b.

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First Nano-Sized Molecular Device Capable of Sensing and Altering Cells’ Bioelectric Fields

A conceptual drawing of the new molecular device. For experiments outside the human body (in vitro), the device would nest on the cell’s membrane: a “reporter” molecule would detect the local electric field when activated by red light; an attached “modifier” molecule would alter that electric field when activated by blue light. Credit: Katya Kadyshevskaya at USC

Using Only 100 Atoms, Electric Fields Can Be Detected and Changed

Founded in 1880, the University of Southern California is one of the world’s leading private research universities. It is located in the heart of Los Angeles.

“>USC Viterbi researchers create first nano-sized, molecular device potentially capable of sensing and altering the cell’s electric field, ushering in new possibilities for basic research.

Bioelectricity, the current that flows between our cells, is fundamental to our ability to think and talk and walk.

In addition, there is a growing body of evidence that recording and altering the bioelectric fields of cells and tissue plays a vital role in wound healing and even potentially fighting diseases like cancer and heart disease.

Now, for the first time, researchers at the USC Viterbi School of Engineering have created a molecular device that can do both: record and manipulate its surrounding bioelectric field.

The triangle-shaped device is made of two small, connected molecules — much smaller than a virus and similar to the diameter of a (function(d, s, id){ var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0]; if (d.getElementById(id)) return; js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id; js.src = "https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/sdk.js#xfbml=1&version=v2.6"; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }(document, 'script', 'facebook-jssdk'));

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OAK-D Depth Sensing AI Camera Gets Smaller And Lighter

The OAK-D is an open-source, full-color depth sensing camera with embedded AI capabilities, and there is now a crowdfunding campaign for a newer, lighter version called the OAK-D Lite. The new model does everything the previous one could do, combining machine vision with stereo depth sensing and an ability to run highly complex image processing tasks all on-board, freeing the host from any of the overhead involved.

An example of real-time feature tracking, now in 3D thanks to integrated depth sensing.

The OAK-D Lite camera is actually several elements together in one package: a full-color 4K camera, two greyscale cameras for stereo depth sensing, and onboard AI machine vision processing with Intel’s Movidius Myriad X processor. Tying it all together is an open-source software platform called DepthAI that wraps the camera’s functions and capabilities together into a unified whole.

The goal is to give embedded systems access to human-like visual perception in real-time, which at its core means detecting things, and identifying where they are in physical space. It does this with a combination of traditional machine vision functions (like edge detection and perspective correction), depth sensing, and the ability to plug in pre-trained convolutional neural network (CNN) models for complex tasks like object classification, pose estimation, or hand tracking in real-time.

So how is it used? Practically speaking, the OAK-D Lite is a USB device intended to be plugged into a host (running any OS), and the team has put a lot of work into making it as easy as possible. With the help of a downloadable application, the hardware can be up and running with examples in about half a minute. Integrating the device into other projects or products can be done in Python with the help of the DepthAI SDK, which provides functionality with minimal coding and configuration (and for more advanced users, there is also a full API for low-level access). Since the vision processing is all done on-board, even a Raspberry Pi Zero can be used effectively as a host.

There’s one more thing that improves the ease-of-use situation, and that’s the fact that support for the OAK-D Lite (as well as the previous OAK-D) has been added to a software suite called the Cortic Edge Platform (CEP). CEP is a block-based visual coding system that runs on a Raspberry Pi, and is aimed at anyone who wants to rapidly prototype with AI tools in a primarily visual interface, providing yet another way to glue a project together.

Earlier this year we saw the OAK-D used in a system to visually identify weeds and estimate biomass in agriculture, and it’s exciting to see a new model being released. If you’re interested, the OAK-D Lite is available at a considerable discount during the Kickstarter campaign.

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Sensing a shift in power dynamic, Iran steps up shadow war with Israel

As the Middle East sweats through an August heatwave, temperatures are rising rapidly in the long-running conflict between Israel and Iran.

A decade of shadowboxing between the two, marked by mysterious acts of suspected sabotage and attacks by proxy groups, has intensified in recent months, threatening to bring the regional rivals to the brink of direct warfare.

The ratcheted up conflict has been the result of a seemingly emboldened Iran stepping up actions against Israel or Israeli linked assets, such as a deadly drone strike on the Mercer Street tanker, managed by a company owned by an Israeli, near Oman late last month.

On Friday, hostilities appeared to reach a new peak when Iranian proxy Hezbollah fired 19 rockets into northern Israel, the heaviest such barrage since the 2006 Second Lebanon War.

The increasingly hot war comes at a conspicuous time for Iran: Tehran swore in new hardline president Ebrahim Raisi on Thursday, and talks with Western powers on resuming the 2015 nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which appeared to be steaming ahead earlier this summer, suddenly appear stalled.

To some, Iran’s actions appear designed to maximize its negotiating position and tell the world it won’t be pushed over or forced into curtailing its proxies abroad.

“I think Iran wants to show it’s not going to talk about its regional presence,” said Ori Goldberg of the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya’s Lauder School of Government. “The Iranians want a clear separation of the nuclear issue.”

Israel, which is also under relatively new management, has seemingly also attempted to maximize its bid to either torpedo the JCPOA or expand it to also curtail Iranian missile development and proxy activity. This has meant letting loose with bellicose rhetoric overtly threatening Iran with all out war, and letting the US know it is doing so, while also redoubling efforts to enlist the international community to its cause, a quest some see as quixotic.

“A new international coalition against Iran is not in the offing,” said Henry Rome, senior analyst at the Eurasia Group. “The US and UK may bolster naval forces that patrol the region through the International Maritime Security Construct. British press reporting has also indicated London may conduct a cyber operation in response, which would probably be designed to have limited spillover or escalatory effects. The US will also likely accelerate pre-existing plans to levy new sanctions related to Iran’s drone and missile program.”

“Ultimately, though, this will likely prove too little for Israel, which will find its own way to retaliate,” he predicted.

An opportunity for Iran

Not all observers believe the regional escalation is directly tied to the nuclear talks.

“Iran manages several campaigns in parallel,” said Raz Zimmt, an Iran scholar at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “Though there are some influences between the campaigns, not everything is tied into the nuclear issue.”

The Iranian escalation comes as Tehran sense an opportunity to assert their dominance in the Gulf, while also testing new administrations in Jerusalem and Washington.

“I think they feel that they have sort of control right now,” said Moran Zaga, an expert on the Gulf region at Mitvim – The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies.

Saudi Arabia, long a regional rival, is in talks with Iran over a way out of the Yemen civil war and has little interest in rocking the boat by responding to Tehran’s aggression. The UAE, meanwhile, would rather ignore the hubbub and maintain a façade of stability to continue to attract investment and diversify their economy.

In this Aug. 22, 2020 file photo, tribesmen loyal to Houthi rebels raise their weapons during a protest against the agreement to establish diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, in Sanaa, Yemen. (AP/Hani Mohammed, File)

“Today, none of the Gulf countries are in a position where they can respond directly to the attacks,” said Zaga.

Israel’s clear preference is that the international community — specifically the US, France and the UK — lead the effort against Iran’s nuclear program and its support for armed proxy groups in the region.

Last week, Foreign Minister Yair  Lapid  said he had ordered Israeli diplomats to push for UN action against “Iranian terrorism.”

“What is the international community going to do about it?” he asked ambassadors from countries on the UN Security Council Wednesday. “Is there still such a thing as international law? And does the world have the ability and willpower to enforce the law? If the answer is yes, the world should act now.”

But Israel shouldn’t expect anyone else to take the lead.

The British are not about to strike Iran militarily for attacks on shipping, and certainly not to stop Iran’s nuclear program. After Iranian seizures of a British oil tanker in 2019 and even Navy personnel in 2007, the UK opted not to respond militarily at all.

If the British do act, it will likely be in the diplomatic or economic spheres.

“In the UK’s case, there is a preference to say that if you cause the UK problems in one area, we will demonstrate a capacity to cause you problems in a seemingly unrelated area,” explained Jack Watling, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in the United Kingdom.

US President Joe Biden holds up a face mask as he delivers remarks in the East Room of the White House on July 29, 2021 in Washington, DC. (Anna Moneymaker / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The Biden administration also has no appetite for a military strike, which could kill the JCPOA talks and could add another headache for a White House already dealing with a resurgent pandemic and other pressing domestic issues that could hurt Democrats in next year’s mid-term election.

“The shadow of November 2022 hangs over this issue,” explained Eran Lerman, vice president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and past deputy director of Israel’s National Security Council. “As much as the American public is averse to entanglements in the Middle East, it is also to averse to abject surrender.”

Anticipating the possibility of Israel being on its own, some believe that Tehran and Hezbollah are trying to get a read on Israel’s new leadership.

“If they want to put an end to the rocket fire they could,” said Lerman. “Bennett and Lapid are being tested.”

Hezbollah fires rockets toward Israel on July 8, 2021 (Screencapture)

But this is a recipe for an explosion. The last time Hezbollah thought it could push what it thought of as an untested leadership, then-prime minister Ehud Olmert and then-defense minster Amir Peretz surprised Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah by choosing war in 2006.

“Unless the Iranians come to their senses, we are getting closer to the point where the military option in some variation, could become very real,” said Lerman.

Why compromise?

Biden and his top aides have repeatedly expressed their desire to find a way back to the 2015 JCPOA deal with Iran. The Biden administration has even shown itself willing to allow Iran access to frozen assets abroad, which Iran has dismissed as an empty gesture.

But Iran’s aggressive and often ham-fisted negotiating has driven the sides apart, and it is not at all clear the gaps can still be bridged.

The equation for a deal seems straightforward: Iran rolls back its nuclear program to the terms laid out in great detail by the JCPOA, while the US rolls back most Trump-era sanctions.

But Iran — or at least the hardline elements around Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — is demanding more. Tehran wants all the sanctions removed, including those dealing with terrorism and other non-nuclear issues.

Left to right: Kazem Gharib Abadi, Iran’s ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); Abbas Araghchi, Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran; and Enrique Mora, Deputy Secretary-General and Political Director of the European External Action Service (EEAS), at the Grand Hotel where closed-door nuclear talks take place in Vienna, Austria, Wednesday, June 2, 2021. (AP/Lisa Leutner)

The lack of response from the West might make Tehran dig in its heels even deeper.

“It matters in Vienna,” said Jon Ruhe, Director of Foreign Policy at The Jewish Institute for National Security of America.  “If Washington and London simply keep trying to avoid pushing back against Iran’s regional aggression – even as that aggression picks up pace, and even as the Biden administration says those attacks threaten US interests – why should Tehran ever compromise its maximalist demands at the nuclear talks?”

“The White House, in suggesting after Mercer Street that it’s still as ready as ever to resume diplomacy, is precisely the wrong message on this score,” he said. “Deterrence is fungible, but the administration seemingly has yet to internalize the connection between how it responds to Iranian aggression and how Tehran behaves at the negotiating table.”

With Raisi taking over for Rouhani, seen as a relative moderate, Iran’s negotiating position is likely to harden, though the direction Raisi wants to take the country will likely only start to crystalize once he presents his cabinet, which will happen in the next two weeks.

“There is a sense that Iran hasn’t made up its mind yet,” said Goldberg. “There is no master plan. The Iranians are being as reactive as they usually are.”

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