Tag Archives: securities trading

Gautam Adani’s business loses $50 billion in market value after short seller report


New Delhi
CNN
 — 

The value of Gautam Adani’s business empire has crashed by more than $50 billion this week since Hindenburg Research, a US firm that makes money from short selling, published a blistering report accusing it of fraud.

India’s Adani Group has denounced Hindenburg’s allegations as “baseless” and “malicious,” and it is considering legal action. But the sharp sell-off in shares, which began Wednesday, accelerated Friday after US hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman said he found the short seller’s report credible.

Hindenburg Research published an investigation on Adani’s conglomerate late on Tuesday, accusing it of “brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme over the course of decades.” It said it had taken a short position in Adani Group companies, meaning it would benefit from a drop in their value.

Shares of those companies — some of which had surged over 500% in the last few years — plunged when India’s stock market opened Wednesday. The rout resumed Friday when trading resumed following a market holiday on Thursday.

Shares of Adani Transmission, Adani Total Gas and Adani Green Energy — three of the group’s seven listed companies — were down 20% each on Friday, while shares of Adani Enterprises, the conglomerate’s flagship company, fell 18%. Friday’s losses wiped out almost $39 billion in market value.

According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Adani is still Asia’s richest man with a personal fortune worth $113 billion, $30 billion more than fellow Indian entrepreneur Mukesh Ambani. Friday’s losses will reduce that gap.

Hindenburg said Thursday that it stood fully by its report and believed any legal action would be “meritless.”

“If Adani is serious, it should also file suit in the US where we operate. We have a long list of documents we would demand in a legal discovery process,” the short seller said in a post on Twitter.

Hindenburg isn’t the first research firm to express concern about the finances of Adani’s sprawling empire, which has borrowed $30 billion to become established in industries ranging from logistics to mining, and is aggressively growing in diverse sectors such as media, data centers, airports and cement.

Ackman weighed into the debate on Twitter Thursday, saying he found the Hindenburg investigation “highly credible and extremely well researched.”

“We are not invested long or short in any of the Adani companies … nor have we done our own independent research,” Ackman added.

Hindenburg’s claims come at a sensitive time. Adani Enterprises is aiming to raise 200 billion rupees ($2.5 billion) by issuing new shares this month. The offer will close on Tuesday.

A college dropout and a self-made industrialist, Adani is the world’s fourth richest man, ahead of Bill Gates and Warren Buffet. He is also seen as a close ally of India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi.

The 60-year old tycoon founded the Adani group over 30 years ago.



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Gautam Adani slams short-seller Hindenburg’s claims as ‘baseless’ and ‘malicious’


New Delhi
CNN
 — 

India’s Adani Group on Wednesday denounced allegations of fraud made by US-based short seller Hindenburg Research as “baseless” and a “malicious combination of selective misinformation.”

Hindenburg Research published an investigation on billionaire Gautam Adani’s sprawling conglomerate on Tuesday, accusing it of “brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme over the course of decades.”

Hindenburg said it has taken a short position in companies in the Adani Group “through U.S.-traded bonds and non-Indian-traded derivative instruments.” Short sellers aim to make money by betting that the stock price of the companies they target will fall.

Adani’s business empire contains seven listed companies — in sectors ranging from ports to power stations — and shares in most of them fell by between 3% and more than 8% on Wednesday.

The plunge had an immediate impact on the billionaire’s net worth. According to Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index, Adani lost nearly $6 billion on Wednesday. He is currently worth $113 billion.

In its investigation, which Hindenburg said took two years to compile, the research firm questioned the “sky-high valuations” of Adani firms and said their “substantial debt” puts the entire group “on a precarious financial footing.”

The research firm concluded its report with 88 questions for the Adani Group. These range from asking for details on Adani’s offshore entities, to why it has “such a convoluted, interlinked corporate structure.”

CNN has not verified the claims in the report, and India’s stock market regulator did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Shares of Adani’s companies have surged in the last few years, making him Asia’s richest man.

In a statement released a few hours after Hindenburg published its report, the Adani Group’s chief financial officer Jugeshinder Singh said that Hindenburg did not make “any attempt to contact us or verify the factual matrix,” adding that the allegations made by the short seller are “stale, baseless and discredited.”

The conglomerate has faced scrutiny from Indian authorities in the past. In 2021, shares in Adani’s companies tumbled after The Economic Times newspaper said that foreign funds that hold stakes worth billions of dollars were frozen by the country’s National Securities Depository. The Adani Group called that report “blatantly erroneous.”

Nate Anderson, who founded Hindenburg Research, has made a name for himself in the past few years by targeting companies that he thinks are overvalued and have suspect financials. Anderson is best known for going after electric truck company Nikola in 2020, calling it an “intricate fraud,” and causing the firm’s stock to plunge sharply. In 2022, Nikola’s founder was convicted by a US jury of fraud in a case alleging he lied to investors about the company’s technology.

But some have accused Hindenburg of trying to push stocks lower with its research reports in order to make a profit.

Its report on the Adani Group comes at a sensitive time. Later this week, Adani Enterprises, the conglomerate’s flagship company, is aiming to raise 200 billion rupees ($2.5 billion) by issuing new shares.

Singh said that the “timing of the report’s publication clearly betrays a brazen, mala fide intention to undermine the Adani Group’s reputation with the principal objective of damaging the upcoming follow-on public offering.”

The conglomerate is also considering taking five new businesses to the stock market in the next two to five years.

A college dropout and a self-made industrialist, Adani is the world’s fourth richest man, ahead of Bill Gates and Warren Buffet, according to Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index. He is also seen as a close ally of India’s current prime minister, Narendra Modi.

The 60-year-old tycoon founded the Adani group over 30 years ago. It now has established businesses in industries ranging from logistics to mining, and is aggressively growing in diverse sectors such as media, data centers, airports, and cement.

But this is not the first time analysts have expressed fear that the rapid expansion of his business comes with a huge risk. Adani’s juggernaut has been fueled by a $30 billion borrowing binge, making his business one of the most indebted in the country.

Last year, CreditSights, a research firm owned by Fitch Group, published a report about Adani Group titled “Deeply Overleveraged” in which it expressed strong concerns about its debt-funded growth plans.

Adani Group responded to CreditSights with a 15-page report, saying that the “leverage ratios” of its companies “continue to be healthy and are in line with the industry benchmarks in the respective sectors” and that they “have consistently de-levered” in the last nine years.

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Jack Ma to relinquish control of Ant group



CNN
 — 

Chinese billionaire Jack Ma will no longer control Ant Group after the fintech giant’s shareholders agreed to reshape its shareholding structure, according to a statement released by the company on Saturday.

After the adjustment, Ma’s voting rights will fall to 6.2%, according to the statement and CNN calculations.

Before the restructure, Ma held 50.52% of voting rights at Ant via Hangzhou Yunbo and two other entities, according to its IPO prospectus filed with stock exchanges in 2020.

Ant added in the statement that the voting rights adjustment, a move to make the company’s shareholder structure “more transparent and diversified,” will not result in any change to the economic interests of any shareholders.

Ant said its 10 major shareholders, including Ma, had agreed to no longer act in concert when exercising their voting rights, and would only vote independently, and thus no shareholder would have “sole or joint control over Ant Group.”

The voting rights overhaul came after Chinese regulators pulled the plug on Ant’s $37 billion IPO in November 2020, and ordered the company to restructure its business.

As part of the company’s restructuring, Ant’s consumer finance unit applied for an expansion of its registered capital from $1.2 billion to $2.7 billion. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission recently approved the application, according to a government notice issued late last week.

After the fund-raising drive, Ant will control half of its key consumer finance unit, while an entity controlled by the Hangzhou city government will own a 10% stake. Hangzhou is where Alibaba and Ant have been headquartered since their inceptions.

Ant Group is a fintech affiliate of Alibaba, both of which were founded by Ma.

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SEC closes insider trading probe into former Republican senator



CNN
 — 

The US Securities and Exchange Commission has closed its insider trading investigation into stock trades made by then-Sen. Richard Burr and his brother-in-law at the outset of the pandemic, the former senator announced Friday.

“This week, the SEC informed me that they have concluded their investigation with no action. I am glad to have this matter in the rearview mirror as I begin my retirement from the Senate following nearly three decades of public service,” Burr, a North Carolina Republican, said in a statement.

The announcement comes nearly two years after the Justice Department closed its own review of the matter, which was launched in March 2020, soon after questionably timed trades by Burr and other lawmakers became publicly known.

Burr sold $1.65 million in stock on February 13, 2020, previous court filings by the SEC revealed. The sales included tens of thousands of dollars in stock in the hospitality industry, which was particularly hard hit in coronavirus outbreak.

The SEC declined CNN’s request for comment.

The trades made by Burr and his brother-in-law first attracted scrutiny because of Burr’s position on Senate committees overseeing health policy and US intelligence. The Intelligence Committee, which Burr chaired at the time, had received periodic briefings on the coronavirus as the outbreak began to spread but it did not receive such a briefing the week of the trades.

The SEC previously said Burr possessed “material nonpublic information concerning Covid-19 and its potential impact on the U.S. and global economies.”

In the DOJ’s probe of the stock trade, Burr turned over his official Senate phone to the FBI after a warrant was served, an official confirmed to CNN at the time. Use of the warrant had been signed off at the highest levels of the Justice Department, as is protocol, according to the source.

The Senate-issued cellphone was Burr’s primary device and investigators had asked Apple for information from Burr’s iCloud backup, a person familiar with the investigation previously said.

Burr had consistently denied any wrongdoing, saying he made the trades based solely on public information, not information he received from the committee.

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Tesla shares are down 70% for the year


New York
CNN
 — 

Tesla’s stock is finishing out its tumultuous year with yet more turbulence: It’s up almost 6% Thursday, but still down more than 10% since last week. And a new cut to its price target from Morgan Stanley isn’t helping.

Year-to-date, the stock is down about 70%. Morgan Stanley analysts on Thursday said that the company’s sliding stock price represents a buying opportunity, but they cut its price target from $330 per share to $250. Tesla shares are trading at $122, with the stock up about 8% Thursday.

Morgan Stanley still believes the company is somewhat undervalued as a result of the big recent sell-offs, citing its head start over the electric car competition, and potential tax advantages as a result of the Inflation Reduction Act passed earlier this year.

The losses, however, have further put a dent in the fortunes of one of the world’s richest people. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, CEO Elon Musk is now worth $132 billion — less than half what he was worth at the beginning of the year. He lost the world’s richest person title two weeks ago to Bernard Arnault, the chairman of French luxury goods giant LVMH

(LVMHF).

A popular misconception has emerged about Elon Musk and Tesla: The megabillionaire’s love affair with Twitter is the main reason Tesla shares have lost so much value this year.

Even as Musk signals he may give up his CEO title at Twitter, investors became concerned that the outlook for Tesla’s sales and profit is taking a turn for the worse. A sign of the weakening demand: Tesla has announced a rare sale. The company offered two rebates for buyers who take delivery of a vehicle before the end of the year, initially offering a $3,750 discount earlier this month. Tesla then doubled that rebate to $7,500 last Thursday.

“Tesla clearly is starting to see demand cracks in China and in the US at a time that EV competition is increasing across the board,” said Dan Ives, tech analyst with Wedbush Securities and a Tesla bull who cut his price target for the stock last Friday from $250 to $175. “The price cuts that Tesla enacted was the straw that broke the camel’s back on the stock.”

Another reason Tesla’s stock is sinking: The US economy could tip into recession next year, hurting car sales. Musk said on a Twitter Spaces call two weeks ago that he foresees the economy will be in a “serious recession” in 2023.

“I think there is going to be some macro drama that’s higher than people currently think,” he said, according to Reuters, adding that homes and cars will get “disproportionately impacted” by economic conditions.

Part of the problem with Tesla’s stock price is that critics question whether it was ever worth the trillion-dollar valuation it had at the start of the year. At its peak, Tesla was worth more than the 12 largest automakers on the planet combined, despite having a fraction of the sales of any of them. Today it is worth $399 billion.

“It got ahead of itself in the near-term,” said Gene Munster of Loup Ventures, another Tesla fan. “I still believe this can be a much bigger company. I think it will see those kinds of numbers again. But it could take a long, long time to get there.”

Tesla’s growth prospects – a target of 50% sales growth annually, helped drive that valuation. It conceded in October that it will miss that sales target for this year.

The stock’s climb to dizzying heights – rising 743% in 2020 alone – was driven by Musk’s reputation as a genius who would disrupt the massive global auto industry.

“Tesla was viewed as a disruptive technology company, not as an automaker, and a large part of that premium is related to Musk,” said Ives.

Critics of Tesla said much of its sky-high valuation was based on promises that Musk made about future products, many of which came years after they were originally promised.

A prime example is the Cybertruck, the Tesla pickup truck, first unveiled three years ago with promises that production would start in 2021.

Now production is slated to start next year, with a ramp-up in production in 2024, putting it years behind other electric pickup offerings from Ford and upstart EV maker Rivian, both of which have electric pickups available for purchase today. It could also trail planned electric pickup offerings from General Motors.

“Elon Musk has a pathological problem with the truth,” said Gordon Johnson, one of the largest critics of Tesla among analysts. “When people say he’s a genius and innovator, it’s based on all his promises he never lives up to.”

Johnson said Tesla shares will have a much steeper fall ahead, once it starts being priced like other automakers rather than on its promises. He said that for Tesla to hit its growth targets it needs to be building new plants almost every year, but that new factories in Germany and Texas that opened in spring are still not operating at full capacity. And he said that its plant in China has had to scale back production due to weak sales in the market in the face of the Covid restrictions.

“Demand in the US has collapsed,” he said. “Two months ago, your wait time was two or three months. Now you can get one immediately. They’re going to build more cars than they sell for a third straight quarter. It’s the definition of excess capacity.”

Tesla is still by far the largest EV maker worldwide, although that title is being challenged in some key markets, by Volkswagen in Europe and by BYD in China. And more competition is coming from established automakers such as Ford and GM.

That’s not to say Twitter has played no role in Tesla’s stock price demise this year: Tesla shares have lost over 65% of their value since Musk’s interest in Twitter was first disclosed in April, with a nearly 50% decline since he closed on the deal in late October.

Investors have been disappointed that Musk appears to be paying for so much of his $44 billion purchase of Twitter by selling Tesla stock. Musk, Tesla’s largest shareholder, has sold $23 billion worth of Tesla shares since his interest in Twitter became public in April.

On a Twitter Spaces call last week call, Musk promised he was done selling shares of Tesla

(TSLA) stock until at least 2024, if not beyond. But he hasn’t lived up to a previous promise in April that he was done selling Tesla

(TSLA) shares, selling $14.4 billion of that stock since that time.

“It’s been a Pinocchio situation for Musk saying he is done selling stock. Investors want to see him walk the walk and not just talk the talk,” said Ives.

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Elon Musk’s Twitter obsession isn’t the core reason for Tesla stock’s plunge


New York
CNN
 — 

A popular misconception has emerged about Elon Musk and Tesla: The megabillionaire’s love affair with Twitter is the main reason Tesla shares have lost so much value this year. But Tesla’s steep stock selloff this week proved that the problems at Musk’s car company go well beyond Twitter.

Even as Musk signals he may give up his CEO title at Twitter, investors became concerned that the outlook for Tesla’s sales and profit is taking a turn for the worse. A sign of the weakening demand: Tesla has announced a rare sale. The company offered two rebates for buyers who take delivery of a vehicle before the end of the year, initially offering a $3,750 discount earlier this month. Tesla then doubled that rebate to $7,500 Thursday.

“Tesla clearly is starting to see demand cracks in China and in the US at a time that EV competition is increasing across the board,” said Dan Ives, tech analyst with Wedbush Securities and a Tesla bull who cut his price target for the stock Friday from $250 to $175. “The price cuts that Tesla enacted was the straw that broke the camel’s back on the stock.”

Another reason Tesla’s stock is sinking: The US economy could tip into recession next year, hurting car sales. Musk said on an Twitter Spaces call Thursday he foresees the economy will be in a “serious recession” in 2023.

“I think there is going to be some macro drama that’s higher than people currently think,” he said, according to Reuters, adding that homes and cars will get “disproportionately impacted” by economic conditions.

Part of the problem with Tesla’s stock price is that critics question whether it was ever worth the trillion-dollar valuation it had at the start of the year. At its peak, Tesla was worth more than the 12 largest automakers on the planet combined, despite having a fraction of the sales of any of them. Today it is worth $399 billion.

“It got ahead of itself in the near-term,” said Gene Munster of Loup Ventures, another Tesla fan. “I still believe this can be a much bigger company. I think it will see those kinds of numbers again. But it could take a long, long time to get there.”

Tesla’s growth prospects – a target of 50% sales growth annually, helped drive that valuation. It conceded in October that it will miss that sales target for this year.

The stock’s climb to dizzying heights – rising 743% in 2020 alone – was driven by Musk’s reputation as a genius who would disrupt the massive global auto industry.

“Tesla was viewed as a disruptive technology company, not as an automaker, and a large part of that premium is related to Musk,” said Ives.

Critics of Tesla said much of its sky-high valuation was based on promises that Musk made about future products, many of which came years after they were originally promised.

A prime example is the Cybertruck, the Tesla pickup truck, first unveiled three years ago with promises that production would start in 2021. Now it is slated to start production next year, with a ramp-up in production in 2024, putting it years behind other electric pickup offerings from Ford and upstart EV maker Rivian, both of which have electric pickups available for purchase today. It could also trail planned electric pickup offerings from General Motors.

“Elon Musk has a pathological problem with the truth,” said Gordon Johnson, one of the largest critics of Tesla among analysts. “When people say he’s a genius and innovator, it’s based on all his promises he never lives up to.”

Johnson said Tesla shares will have a much steeper fall ahead, once it starts being priced like other automakers rather than on its promises. He said that for Tesla to hit its growth targets it needs to be building new plants almost every year, but that new factories in Germany and Texas that opened in spring are still not operating at full capacity. And he said that its plant in China has had to scale back production due to weak sales in the market in the face of the Covid restrictions.

“Demand in the US has collapsed,” he said. “Two months ago, your wait time was two or three months. Now you can get one immediately. They’re going to build more cars than they sell for a third straight quarter. It’s the definition of excess capacity.”

Tesla is still by far the largest EV maker worldwide, although that title is being challenged in some key markets, by Volkswagen in Europe and by BYD in China. And more competition is coming from established automakers such as Ford and GM.

That’s not to say Twitter has played no role in Tesla’s stock price demise this year: Tesla shares have lost 66% of their value since Musk’s interest in Twitter was first disclosed in April, with a 45% decline since he closed on the deal in late October.

Investors have been disappointed that Musk appears to be paying for so much of his $44 billion purchase of Twitter by selling Tesla stock. Musk, Tesla’s largest shareholder, has sold $23 billion worth of Tesla shares since his interest in Twitter became public in April.

On Thursday’s Twitter Spaces call, Musk promised he was done selling shares of Tesla stock until at least 2024, if not beyond. But he hasn’t lived up to a previous promise in April that he was done selling Tesla shares, selling $14.4 billion of that stock since that time.

“It’s been a Pinocchio situation for Musk saying he is done selling stock. Investors want to see him walk the walk and not just talk the talk,” said Ives.

Another Twitter factor: Musk named himself CEO of Twitter, the third major company he leads, along with Tesla and SpaceX. So, many people assumed that Musk’s loss of focus on Tesla has spooked its former fans on Wall Street.

But this week began with Musk running a poll – on Twitter of course – asking if he should give up the CEO title at his social media plaything. He promised he would comply with the result, and 57.5% of those who voted said they want him gone.

That departure may take a while – Musk tweeted he will resign “as soon as I find someone foolish enough to take the job!” And the same tweet he cautioned that even if he gives up the CEO title at Twitter, he’s not walking away totally, saying that he plans to “just run the software & servers teams” after finding a new “fool” to be CEO.

The poll results late Sunday were enough to lift Tesla shares in early trading Monday, but the shares ended the day slightly lower, and have lost significantly more ground every day since. Tesla shares fell 9% Thursday, and it ended the week down 18% after another 2% drop on Friday.

And then there’s the question of how much damage the debacle at Twitter has done to the Tesla brand. Musk has fired thousands of employees, banned journalists while allowing Donald Trump and other previously banned accounts back online, called for the prosecution of Dr. Anthony Fauci, embraced conspiracy theories and made anti-trans statements in his short tenure as CEO.

It may have endeared him to some but angered other potential buyers, including liberals who might be willing to pay a premium for a more environmentally friendly vehicle.

“I think it was measurable damage,” said Munster, who believes the publicity over his time at Twitter cost Tesla 5% of its sales.



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Dow and S&P 500 updates: Stock market news


New York
CNN
 — 

The good vibes on Wall Street are fading fast: US slid tumbled yet again on Friday as investors come to grips with a souring economy.

The Dow ended the day down 282 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 fell 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite was 1% lower.

The sell-off has been broad, but the real estate and consumer discretionary sectors were been hit the hardest, down more than 3% and 1.8%, respectively.

Is the Fed to blame? Sentiment on Wall Street can change on a dime, and this week is evidence of that: The Dow has tumbled about 1,050 points just since the Federal Reserve’s dour policy update at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday.

CNN Business’ Fear and Greed Index, a measure of market sentiment, finally dipped into “Fear” Friday. The market has been in “Greed” mode for weeks.

Stocks had been riding high this month on weaker-than-expected inflation and a number of stronger-than-expected reports on the broad economy and the job market. Investors were hopeful that the Federal Reserve could slow its historic pace of rate hikes and inflation could right itself sometime next year without tipping the economy into a recession.

That excitement continued right up until Fed Chair Jerome Powell crashed Wall Street’s party Wednesday with some tough news: Economists at the Fed believe US gross domestic product, the broadest measure of America’s economy, will barely grow next year.

And they predict the US unemployment rate will rise to 4.6% by the end of 2023, which means roughly 1.6 million more Americans will be out of work.

Compounding fears from those Fed forecasts was a worse-than-expected retail sales report Thursday that sent stocks plunging. The Dow lost 765 points Thursday, or 2.3%, the index’s worst day in three months. The S&P 500 lost 2.5% and the Nasdaq tumbled 3.2%, their worst days in a month.

Now, economists at Moody’s Analytics predict America’s economy will grow at an annualized rate of just 1.9% in the fourth quarter, down from its previous estimate of 2.7%. Weak manufacturing and retail reports spooked Moody’s analysts, who also lowered their 2023 GDP forecast to just 0.9%, much lower than 2022’s 1.9% estimate.

“This leaves little room for anything to go wrong,” Moody’s economist Matt Colyar wrote in an analysis.

Not helping stocks: It’s December. Many traders are on vacation, volume is low and tiny moves can get exacerbated.

As my colleague Matt Egan notes, the market may be in a lose-lose situation. Good economic news has been bad news for investors, because the Fed is trying to cool down the economy as part of its inflation-fighting campaign. But bad economic news is also bad for investors – and everyone – because it raises the risk of a recession.

Adobe

(ADBE) and Facebook parent company Meta are the markets largest gainers today, up 3% and 2.8%, respectively. Adobe

(ADBE) shares soared after the company reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings and guidance. Meta, which is still down nearly 65% for the year, saw a tick after JPMorgan upgraded shares of the company to neutral from overweight.

– CNN’s Nicole Goodkind and Matt Egan contributed to this report

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What to do about the highest interest rate in 15 years

Editor’s Note: This is an updated version of a story that originally ran on November 2, 2022.

In its last policymaking meeting of the year, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate for the seventh time in a row, to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. That is the highest it’s been in 15 years.

In a continued bid to tame decades-high inflation, the central bank may keep pushing rates higher next year, too, albeit at a more modest pace.

That, of course, means higher borrowing costs for consumers. But it also means your savings may actually start earning a little money after years of barely-there interest.

“Credit card rates are at a record high and still increasing. Auto loan rates are at an 11-year high. Home equity lines of credit are at a 15-year high. And online savings account and CD yields haven’t been this high since 2008,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.

The good news: There are ways to situate your money so that you can benefit from rising rates and protect yourself from their costs.

If you’ve been stashing cash at big banks that have been paying next to nothing in interest for savings accounts and certificates of deposit, don’t expect that to change much, McBride said.

Thanks to the big players’ paltry rates, the national average savings rate is still just 0.19%, up from 0.06% in January, according to Bankrate’s December 7 weekly survey of large institutions.

But all those Fed rates hikes are starting to have a much more significant impact at online banks and credit unions, McBride said. They’re offering far higher rates — with some topping 3.75% currently — and have been increasing them as benchmark rates go higher.

As for certificates of deposit, there’s been a noticeable increase in return. The average rate on a one-year CD is 1.20% as of November 22, up from 0.14% at the start of the year. But top-yielding one-year CDs now offer as much as 4.5%.

So shop around. If you make a switch to an online bank or credit union, however, be sure to only choose those that are federally insured.

Given today’s high rates of inflation, Series I savings bonds may be attractive because they’re designed to preserve the buying power of your money. They’re currently paying 6.89%.

But that rate will only be in effect for six months and only if you buy an I Bond by the end of April 2023, after which the rate is scheduled to adjust. If inflation falls, the rate on the I Bond will fall, too.

There are some limitations: You can only invest $10,000 a year. You can’t redeem it in the first year. And if you cash out between years two and five, you will forfeit the previous three months of interest.

“In other words, I Bonds are not a replacement for your savings account,” McBride said.

Nevertheless, they preserve the buying power of your $10,000 if you don’t need to touch it for at least five years, and that’s not nothing. They also may be of particular benefit to people planning to retire in the next 5 to 10 years since they will serve as a safe annual investment they can tap if needed in their first few years of retirement.

When the overnight bank lending rate — also known as the fed funds rate — goes up, various lending rates that banks offer their customers tend to follow.

So you can expect to see a hike in your credit card rates within a few statements.

The average credit card rate hit a record high of 19.40% as of December 7, up from 16.3% at the start of the year, according to Bankrate. Some retail store credit cards are now carrying whopping rates of more than 30%.

“[Interest rate hikes] will most acutely impact those consumers who do not pay off their credit card balances in full through higher minimum monthly payments,” said Michele Raneri, vice president of US research and consulting at TransUnion.

Best advice: If you’re carrying balances on your credit cards — which typically have high variable interest rates — consider transferring them to a zero-rate balance transfer card that locks in a zero rate for between 12 and 21 months.

“That insulates you from [future] rate hikes, and it gives you a clear runway to pay off your debt once and for all,” McBride said. “Less debt and more savings will enable you to better weather rising interest rates, and is especially valuable if the economy sours.”

Just be sure to find out what, if any, fees you will have to pay (e.g., a balance transfer fee or annual fee), and what the penalties will be if you make a late payment or miss a payment during the zero-rate period. The best strategy is always to pay off as much of your existing balance as possible — on time every month — before the zero-rate period ends. Otherwise, any remaining balance will be subject to a new interest rate that could be higher than you had before if rates continue to rise.

If you don’t transfer to a zero-rate balance card, another option might be to get a relatively low fixed-rate personal loan. Average personal loan rates range from 10.3% to 12.5% for those with excellent credit scores, according to Bankrate. The best rate you can get would depend on your income, credit score and debt-to-income ratio. Bankrate’s advice: To get the best deal, ask a few lenders for quotes before filling out a loan application.

Mortgage rates have been rising over the past year, jumping more than three percentage points.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.33% in the week ending December 9, according to Freddie Mac. That is more than double where it stood a year ago.

“After cresting above 7%, mortgage rates have pulled back a bit but not enough to impact buyer affordability. The year-to-date rise in mortgage rates has still stripped would-be homebuyers of one-third of their buying power,” McBride said.

What’s more, mortgage rates may climb further.

So if you’re close to buying a home or refinancing one, lock in the lowest fixed rate available to you as soon as possible.

That said, “don’t jump into a large purchase that isn’t right for you just because interest rates might go up. Rushing into the purchase of a big-ticket item like a house or car that doesn’t fit in your budget is a recipe for trouble, regardless of what interest rates do in the future,” said Texas-based certified financial planner Lacy Rogers.

If you’re already a homeowner with a variable-rate home equity line of credit, and you used part of it to do a home improvement project, McBride recommends asking your lender if it’s possible to fix the rate on your outstanding balance, effectively creating a fixed-rate home equity loan.

If that’s not possible, consider paying off that balance by taking out a HELOC with another lender at a lower promotional rate, McBride suggested.

Given that inflation may have peaked, market returns may be better next year, said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management. “The outlook for equity and fixed income returns has improved, and a balanced approach [in your portfolio] makes sense.”

That’s not to say markets won’t remain choppy in the near term. But, Ma noted, “A soft landing for the economy looks not only possible but likely.”

Any cash you have sitting on the sidelines might be put into the equity and fixed income markets in regular intervals over the next six to 12 months, he suggested.

Ma remains bullish on value stocks, especially small cap ones, which have outperformed this year. “We expect that outperformance to persist going forward on a multi-year basis,” he said.

Regarding real estate, Ma noted, “the sharply higher interest and mortgage rates are challenging…and that headwind could persist for a few more quarters or even longer.”

Commodities, meanwhile, have come down in price. “But they still are a good hedge given the uncertainty in energy markets,” he said.

Broadly speaking, however, Ma suggests making sure your overall portfolio is diversified across equities. The idea is to hedge your bets, since some of those areas will come out ahead, but not all of them will.

That said, if you’re planning to invest in a specific stock, consider the company’s pricing power and how consistent the demand is likely to be for their product, said certified financial planner Doug Flynn, co-founder of Flynn Zito Capital Management.

To the extent you already own bonds, the prices on your bonds will fall in a rising rate environment. But if you’re in the market to buy bonds you can benefit from that trend, especially if you purchase short-term bonds, meaning one to three years. That’s because their prices have fallen more, relative to long-term bonds, and their yields have risen more. Ordinarily, short- and long-term bonds move in tandem.

“There’s a pretty good opportunity in short-term bonds, which are severely dislocated,” Flynn said.

“For those in higher-income tax brackets, a similar opportunity exists in tax-free municipal bonds.”

Muni prices have dropped significantly and, while they have started to improve, yields have risen overall and many states are in better financial shape than they were pre-pandemic, Flynn noted.

Ma also recommends short-term corporate bonds or short-term Agency or Treasury securities.

Other assets that may do well are so-called floating rate instruments from companies that need to raise cash, Flynn said. The floating rate is tied to a short-term benchmark rate, such as the fed funds rate, so it will go up whenever the Fed hikes rates.

But if you’re not a bond expert, you’d be better off investing in a fund that specializes in making the most of a rising rate environment through floating rate instruments and other bond income strategies. Flynn recommends looking for a strategic income or flexible income mutual fund or ETF, which will hold an array of different types of bonds.

“I don’t see a lot of these choices in 401(k)s,” he said. But you can always ask your 401(k) provider to include the option in your employer’s plan.

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China markets tank as protests erupt over Covid lockdowns


Hong Kong
CNN Business
 — 

China’s major stock indices and its currency have opened sharply lower Monday, as widespread protests against the country’s stringent Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend roiled investor sentiment.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng

(HSI) Index fell as much as 4.2% in early trading. It has since pared some losses and last traded 2% lower. The Hang Seng

(HSI) China Enterprises Index, a key index that tracks the performance of mainland Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, lost 2%.

In mainland China, the benchmark Shanghai Composite briefly fell 2.2%, before trimming losses to 0.9% lower than Friday’s close. The tech-heavy Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.1%.

The Chinese yuan, also known as the renminbi, plunged against the US dollar on Monday morning. The onshore yuan, which trades in the tightly controlled domestic market, briefly weakened 0.9%. It was last down 0.6% at 7.206 per dollar. The offshore rate, which trades overseas, dropped 0.3% to 7.212 per dollar.

The plunging yuan suggests that “investors are running ice cold on China,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management, adding that the currency market might be “the simplest barometer” to gauge what domestic and overseas investors think.

The markets tumble comes after protests erupted across China in an unprecedented show of defiance against the country’s stringent and increasingly costly zero-Covid policy.

In the country’s biggest cities, from the financial hub of Shanghai to the capital Beijing, residents gathered over the weekend to mourn the dead from a fire in Xinjiang, speak out against zero-Covid and call for freedom and democracy.

Such widespread scenes of anger and defiance, some of which stretched into the early hours of Monday morning, are exceptionally rare in China.

Asian markets were also broadly lower. South Korea’s Kospi lost 1%, Japan’s Nikkei 225

(N225) shed 0.6%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell by 0.3%.

US stock futures — an indication of how markets are likely to open — fell, with Dow futures down 0.5%, or 171 points. Futures for the S&P 500 were down 0.7%, while futures for the Nasdaq dropped 0.8%.

Oil prices also dropped sharply, with investors concerned that surging Covid cases and protests in China may sap demand from one of the world’s largest oil consumers. US crude futures fell 2.7% to trade at $74.19 a barrel. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, lost 2.6% to $81.5 per barrel.

On Friday, a day before the protests started, China’s central bank cut the amount of cash that lenders must hold in reserve for the second time this year. The reserve requirement ratio for most banks (RRR) was reduced by 25 percentage points.

The move was aimed at propping up an economy that had been crippled by strict Covid restrictions and an ailing property market. But analysts don’t think the move will have a significant impact.

“Cutting the RRR now is just like pushing on a string, as we believe the real hurdle for the economy is the pandemic rather than insufficient loanable funds,” said analysts from Nomura in a research report released Monday.

“In our view, ending the pandemic [measures] as soon as possible is the key to the recovery in credit demand and economic growth,” they said.

Innes from SPI Asset Management said China’s economy is currently caught in the midst of a tug-of-war between weakening economic fundamentals and increasing reopening hopes.

“For China’s official institutions, there are no easy paths. Accelerating reopening plans when new Covid cases are rising is unlikely, given the low vaccination coverage of the elderly,” he said. “Mass protests would deeply tilt the scales in favor of an even weaker economy and likely be accompanied by a massive surge in Covid cases, leaving policymakers with a considerable dilemma.”

In the near term, he said, Chinese equities and currency will likely price in “more significant uncertainty” around Beijing’s reaction to the ongoing protests. He expects social discontent could increase in China over the coming months, testing policymakers’ resolve to stick to its draconian zero-Covid mandates.

But in the longer term, the more pragmatic and likely outcome should be “a quicker loosening of [Covid] restrictions once the current wave subsides,” he said.

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Jeff Bezos’ top tips for managing the economic downturn


Washington
CNN Business
 — 

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos recently warned consumers and businesses they should consider postponing large purchases in the coming months as the global economy contends with a downturn and faces a possible recession.

The business leader offered his starkest advice yet on a faltering economy in an exclusive sit-down interview with CNN’s Chloe Melas on Saturday at Bezos’ Washington, DC, home.

Bezos urged people to put off expenditures for big-ticket items such as new cars, televisions and appliances, noting that delaying big purchases is the surest way to keep some “dry powder” in the event of a prolonged economic downturn. Meanwhile, small businesses may want to avoid making large capital expenditures or acquisitions during this uncertain time, Bezos added.

If enough consumers follow through with Bezos’ advice, it could mean lower sales for Amazon, the e-commerce giant Bezos founded and that created the vast majority of the billionaire’s wealth.

The New York Times reported Monday that Amazon plans to slash its workforce, laying off 10,000 workers, the largest reduction in the company’s history. That’s in addition to a previously announced hiring freeze in its corporate workforce. The company is second only to Walmart in the number of people it employs in the United States.

Amazon

(AMZN) said in October it expects sales for the final three months of the year to be significantly below Wall Street’s expectations. The weaker forecast came as rising inflation and looming recession fears weigh on consumer purchasing decisions as Americans focus more on travel and dining out and less on buying discretionary goods.

The company’s stock has fallen more than 40% as surging prices and changing customer behavior weigh on Amazon and the broader tech sector.

Bezos said the probability of economic conditions worsening makes it prudent to save some cash if it’s an option.

“Take some risk off the table,” he said. “Just a little bit of risk reduction could make the difference.”

Last month, Bezos tweeted a warning to his followers on Twitter, recommending that they “batten down the hatches.” The advice was meant for business owners and consumers alike, Bezos said in the interview.

Many may be feeling the pinch now, he added, but argued that as an optimist he believes the American Dream “is and will be even more attainable in the future” — projecting that within his own lifetime, space travel could become broadly accessible to the public.

Although the US economy is not, technically, in a recession, nearly 75% of likely voters in a recent CNN poll said they feel as though it is. Wages are up, but not enough to take the sting off inflation, most notably high prices of necessities like food, fuel and shelter. For those invested in stocks, it’s not been a great year, either, and that’s especially hard on retirees who are living off their investments.

Other business leaders have issued similar messages about the economy in recent months. Tesla

(TSLA) and Twitter CEO Elon Musk last month admitted demand for Tesla

(TSLA)s was “a little harder” to come by, and noted that Europe and China are experiencing a “recession of sorts.” Musk also warned that Tesla

(TSLA) would fall short of its sales growth target.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon in October spooked the stock market by saying a recession could hit the United States in as little as six to nine months.

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