Mortgage rates dropped again this week, after plunging nearly half a percentage point last week.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.58% in the week ending November 23, down from 6.61% the week before, according to Freddie Mac. A year ago, the 30-year fixed rate was 3.10%.
Mortgage rates have risen throughout most of 2022, spurred by the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented campaign of hiking interest rates in order to tame soaring inflation. But last week, rates tumbled amid reports that indicated inflation may have finally reached its peak.
“This volatility is making it difficult for potential homebuyers to know when to get into the market, and that is reflected in the latest data which shows existing home sales slowing across all price points,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.
The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. The survey only includes borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit. But many buyers who put down less money upfront or have less than perfect credit will pay more than the average rate.
The average weekly rates, typically released by Freddie Mac on Thursday, are being released a day early due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds. As investors see or anticipate rate hikes, they make moves which send yields higher and mortgage rates rise.
The 10-year Treasury has been hovering in a lower range of 3.7% to 3.85% since a pair of inflation reports indicating prices rose at a slower pace than expected in October were released almost two weeks ago. That has led to a big reset in investors’ expectations about future interest rate hikes, said Danielle Hale, Realtor.com’s chief economist. Prior to that, the 10-year Treasury had risen above 4.2%.
However, the market may be a bit too quick to celebrate the improvement in inflation, she said.
At the Fed’s November meeting, chairman Jerome Powell pointed to the need for ongoing rate hikes to tame inflation.
“This could mean that mortgage rates may climb again, and that risk goes up if next month’s inflation reading comes in on the higher side,” Hale said.
While it’s difficult to time the market in order to get a low mortgage rate, plenty of would-be homebuyers are seeing a window of opportunity.
“Following generally higher mortgage rates throughout the course of 2022, the recent swing in buyers’ favor is welcome and could save the buyer of a median-priced home more than $100 per month relative to what they would have paid when rates were above 7% just two weeks ago,” said Hale.
As a result of the drop in mortgage rates, both purchase and refinance applications picked up slightly last week. But refinance activity is still more than 80% below last year’s pace when rates were around 3%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association weekly report.
However, with week-to-week swings in mortgage rates averaging nearly three times those seen in a typical year and home prices still historically high, many potential shoppers have pulled back, said Hale.
“A long-term housing shortage is keeping home prices high, even as the number of homes on the market for sale has increased, and buyers and sellers may find it more challenging to align expectations on price,” she said.
In a separate report released Wednesday, the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the US Census Bureau reported that new home sales jumped in October, rising 7.5% from September, but were down 5.8% from a year ago.
While that was higher than predicted and bucked a trend of recently falling sales, it’s still below a year ago. Home building has been historically low for a decade and builders have been pulling back as the housing market shows signs of slowing.
“New home sales beat expectations, but a reversal of the general downward trend is doubtful for now given high mortgage rates and builder pessimism,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.
Despite a general trend of falling sales, prices of new homes remain at record highs.
The median price for a newly constructed home was $493,000 up 15%, from a year ago – the highest price on record.
To make the deal work, Mr. Musk has been trying to add subscription revenue and reassure advertisers about the platform’s future. Twitter was losing money before Mr. Musk bought the company, and the deal added a debt burden that requires fresh sources of cash.
It is tough to determine the state of the company. Twitter no longer has to file regular financial reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are crucial tools for determining a company’s financial health.
Analysts and academics have been able to piece together a picture of the company from information Mr. Musk has offered as well as details of the deal and the company’s last regulatory filings. Bankruptcy could be one result. Mr. Musk, the world’s richest person, could also raise new funds, or buy back debt from lenders, giving Twitter a buffer to turn around its business.
Here is a look at their assessments of Twitter’s financial situation and prospects.
Twitter Finances, Pre-Musk
Twitter is and was a popular tool for politicians, celebrities and journalists. But as a business, it was stagnating.
It hasn’t booked an annual profit since 2019, and posted a loss in eight years of the past decade. The company’s net loss narrowed in 2021, to $221.4 million from $1.14 billionthe previous year.
Twitter has struggled to attract new users and increase revenue, which came in at about $5.1 billion last year. In its last quarterly filing as a public company, for the period ended June 30, revenue was $1.18 billion, down slightly year-over-year.
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Nearly 90% of its revenue last year came from advertising, and it traditionally has been the company’s main source of revenue. In 2021, Twitter took in $4.51 billion from advertisers, and $572 million from licensing data and other services.
The company had more than $2 billion in cash and less than $600 million in net debt before the takeover talks—very little debt for a company in the S&P 500 index. But that cash position was down 35% from a year earlier as of June 30, filings show, and Mr. Musk paid for Twitter by taking on $13 billion in debt. He paid for the rest in equity, some contributed by multiple investors.
Twitter had a market capitalization of $37.48 billion in March, the month before Mr. Musk agreed to buy it, S&P data showed. Social-media stocks have slumped sharply since then. But now, according to
Jeffrey Davies,
a former credit analyst and founder of data provider Enersection LLC, “This thing’s probably not worth more than what the debt stack is, quite frankly, unless you put a lot of option value just on Elon.” Mr. Musk last month said he and investors were overpaying for the company in the short term.
Revenue Under Musk
Mr. Musk said earlier this month that Twitter had suffered “a massive drop in revenue” and was losing $4 million a day. It isn’t clear if that reflects the broader downturn in the digital ad market or the pause in advertising by several companies since Mr. Musk bought the business.
Some companies, including burrito chain
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.,
cereal maker
General Mills Inc.
and airline
United Airlines Holdings Inc.,
have paused their ad spending on Twitter over uncertainty around where the company is headed. The departure of several top executives from its ad department have soured relationships, The Wall Street Journal has reported.
The exodus of advertisers poses a threat for a company so reliant on that revenue stream. “As an online ad company, you’re flirting with disaster,” said
Aswath Damodaran,
a finance professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business.
Elon Musk has purchased Twitter, ending a monthslong saga over whether or not he would go through with his offer to acquire the social media platform. WSJ takes an inside look at the tweets, texts and filings to see exactly how the battle played out. Illustration: Jordan Kranse
Deal negotiations for long-term contracts that usually begin at the end of the year haven’t taken place yet or have been put on hold. Those deals comprise more than 30% of Twitter’s U.S. ad revenue, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Revenue will likely remain under pressure until advertisers fully grasp the new business model, potentially leading many of them to return to the platform, said
Brent Thill,
a senior analyst at Jefferies Group LLC, a financial-services firm. “Those advertisers will come back if they feel that the users are there and there’s an ability to monetize their advertisement,” Mr. Thill said.
But that could take time. Mr. Thill said it could take months for advertisers to get clarity. “It’s an enigma,” he said.
Market-research firm Insider Intelligence Inc. recently cut its annual ad-revenue revenue outlook for Twitter by nearly 40% through 2024.
Mr. Musk wants the company to lean more on subscriptions and depend less on digital advertising. He said last Tuesday that the company’s upgraded subscription service, costing $7.99 a month, would launch Nov. 29.
A walkway at Twitter headquarters in San Francisco. The company has aggressively cut staff to reduce expenses.
Photo:
George nikitin/Shutterstock
Reducing Costs
The company has moved quickly to slash costs, including cutting its staff by half. Salaries and other compensation make up a large chunk of overall expenses. The company had 7,500 full-time employees at the end of 2021, up from 5,500 a year earlier, filings show.
The layoffs of roughly 3,700 people could save the company roughly $860 million a year, if the employees that are leaving made an average of about $233,000 annually—the company’s most recently disclosed median pay figure. The estimated savings would represent about 15% of Twitter’s $5.57 billion in costs and expenses last year. Its costs and expenses climbed 51% from the previous year, as hiring drove up its payroll.
More employees left the company last week, rejecting Mr. Musk’s demand that they commit to working “long hours at high intensity” to stay.
Debt Mountain
Before Mr. Musk’s acquisition, net debt totaled $596.5 million as of June 30, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, a data provider. That compares with a negative balance of $2.18 billion the prior-year period, indicating a cash surplus.
Twitter paid $23.3 million in interest expense in the quarter ended June 30, according to a filing.
Now, the company will have to pay at least $9 billion in interest to banks and hedge funds over the next seven to eight years, when the $13 billion in debt matures, according to a review of Twitter’s loans by Mr. Davies, the former credit analyst.
The interest payments are substantial for a company that reported $6.3 billion in total operating cash flow over the past eight years, he said.
What’s more, the company’s debt stack now includes floating-rate debt, meaning that interest costs are set to rise as the Federal Reserve continues to increase interest rates. Twitter’s debt was entirely fixed rate before the deal.
Twitter’s credit ratings, which were below investment grade before the transaction with Mr. Musk, have deteriorated further.
Moody’s
Investors Service on Oct. 31 downgraded Twitter’s rating to B1 from Ba2, a two-notch drop, and S&P Global Ratings on Nov. 1 downgraded it to B- from BB+, a five-notch drop.
If Twitter files for bankruptcy, Elon Musk’s $27 billion investment would likely be wiped out.
Photo:
Susan Walsh/Associated Press
Financial Prospects
Twitter’s financial challenges could result in the company filing for bankruptcy, raising equity or buying back some debt from its lenders, analysts and academics said.
If Twitter files for bankruptcy, as Mr. Musk warned was possible in an all-hands meeting earlier this month, his $27 billion investment would likely be wiped out because equity holders are the last to be paid when a company restructures.
Buying back debt from lenders at a steep discount would help the company reduce its debt load and interest costs as well as its valuation, which would be beneficial in the long run, Mr. Davies said.
“I don’t think they can issue any more debt,” Mr. Davies said. “It’s a really, really tough structure.”
The company could also replace some of the debt with equity, both from Mr. Musk and from outside investors, said
David Kass,
a finance professor at the University of Maryland’s
Robert H. Smith
School of Business. For that, Mr. Musk would need to persuade potential investors that he has a viable long-term business plan, he said. Replacing debt could enable the company to generate cash. Mr. Musk has said some of his latest
Tesla Inc.
stock sale, yielding almost $4 billion in cash, was because of Twitter.
If successful, the company could generate positive free cash flow in two or three years, which it could use to pay down the residual debt and eventually go public again, Mr. Kass said. “The prospect of an eventual IPO within three to five years would be a very attractive enticement for large funds,” he said.
—Theo Francis and Jennifer Williams-Alvarez contributed to this article.
, the used-car dealer that was a pandemic winner, is rushing to conserve cash as once-plentiful financing options dry up and business deteriorates.
On Friday, Carvana laid off about 1,500 people, its second round in six months. Its weakening finances mean raising funds would be difficult and costly, and it could run out of cash in a year, analysts say.
Few companies have been hit harder by rising interest rates than Carvana. The company’s interest expense nearly doubled early this year when it paid up to get financing for an acquisition. Its cost to finance car purchases is up by three-quarters this year, and some of its real estate has lost value. Car buyers, meanwhile, are holding off purchases in the hope that rates fall.
In a memo to Carvana’s employees announcing the layoffs, Chief Executive
Ernie Garcia III
blamed an uncertain economic environment that he said was particularly tough on fast-growing companies that sell products affected by higher interest rates. “We failed to accurately predict how this would all play out and the impact it would have on our business,” he said.
The company said it has millions of satisfied customers, and that disrupting the auto industry isn’t easy. “We have seen many e-commerce companies written off early in their journey only to become market leaders. We plan to follow suit,” a spokesman said. Earlier this month, Carvana executives said cash flows and profitability are the strategic focus now.
WSJ’s Ben Foldy explains the factors that helped drive Carvana’s growth and why investors are now questioning its future. Illustration: Preston Jessee
Carvana became wildly popular among car buyers, with heavy advertising and haggle-free cars delivered to their doors. Investors bought in, driving the shares up more than sixfold. The stock has fallen more than 97% from its peak last year. Carvana’s bonds are trading at distressed levels.
“They built an infrastructure across the enterprise with the assumption that the growth would be there,” said Daniel Imbro, a managing director at Stephens Inc.
The ratings firm S&P Global Ratings warned that Carvana’s liquidity likely would erode faster than expected, and changed the outlook on its CCC+ rating to negative earlier this month. It said the company’s standing to raise more cash from stock and bond investors has deteriorated.
Less than a year ago, Carvana was still trying to keep up with demand. In February, it agreed to buy a car-auction business that would help boost inventory. Car sales slowed, though.
The day the deal was completed in May, Mr. Garcia said it had overshot on growth and laid off 2,500 workers. Days earlier, it had issued a $3.275 billion bond with a 10.25% coupon to fund the purchase. The high coupon almost doubled Carvana’s annual interest expense and reflected investors’ fears of a recession and rising inflation.
Carvana CEO Ernie Garcia III and his father, Ernest Garcia II, when the company went public in 2017.
Photo:
Michael Nagle/Bloomberg News
Carvana thrived when interest rates were low because it could borrow cheaply to buy cars and make loans to customers. Its credit line from
Ally Financial
to buy cars had an average 2.6% interest rate last year, compared with 4.5% at the end of September. Ally required Carvana to set aside 12.5% of the amount borrowed as of late September, up from 7.5%, further tightening its cash situation. An Ally spokesman declined to comment.
Carvana earned big profits selling its car loans to investors who were hungry for yield. Gains from the loans help Carvana offset the losses it makes selling cars. When investors turned choosier on these securities in the spring, Carvana sold many of the loans to Ally instead, on less-favorable terms. The gains it books from loan sales fell by around one-third in the third quarter from the year-earlier period.
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Mr. Garcia told analysts on a call Nov. 3 that the company would keep cutting costs and that it has access to around $4 billion in liquidity, in addition to its $316 million cash and some other assets. The amount includes what it can borrow on credit lines to buy cars and make loans. It also included around $2 billion of real estate, which isn’t typically considered a liquid asset.
The company’s chief financial officer said Carvana could borrow against the real estate, which includes sites it bought this year. It previously raised around $500 million from selling some sites where it inspects cars and then leasing them back for 20 or 25 years.
That step might work, analysts said, but would also add expenses. They said any real-estate deals would likely occur piecemeal over time, or involve high rent payments because of Carvana’s credit troubles.
Scott Merkle, a managing partner at SLB Capital Advisors, which specializes in sale-leaseback transactions, said the long-term leases in the space generally rely on financially sound tenants that can be expected to make their lease payments for years. He said that overall conditions for sellers have softened in that market because of higher interest rates, but that sale-leasebacks still provide a better cost of capital for companies than other financing.
Carvana said it is testing ways to make more from its car sales, such as having customers pick up cars from its vending machines.
Photo:
USA TODAY NETWORK/Reuters
Some Carvana-leased properties have received a tepid response on the market. A 12-story “flagship” car-vending machine in Atlanta that Carvana sold and leased back in December was relisted this summer. It is still on the market, and the asking price has since been lowered.
Carvana said it is testing ways to make more from its car sales, such as taking payment before delivery and having customers pick up cars from its vending machines.
“We’ve got a bunch of committed liquidity. We’ve got a bunch of real estate, and I think that we feel like that puts us in a good position to ride out this storm,” Mr. Garcia told analysts on the Nov. 3 call.
—Ben Foldy, Will Feuer and Ben Eisen contributed to this article.
Write to Margot Patrick at margot.patrick@wsj.com and Kristin Broughton at Kristin.Broughton@wsj.com
Home sales in the United States declined for the ninth month in a row in October as surging mortgage rates and high prices pushed buyers out of the market.
Sales of existing homes — which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops — were down 28.4% in October from a year ago and down 5.9% from September, according to a National Association of Realtors report released Friday.All regions of the United States saw month-over-month and year-over-year declines.
That continues a slowing trend that began in February and marks the longest streak of declining sales on record, going back to 1999.
Sales in October were at their weakest level since May 2020, when the real estate market was at a standstill during the pandemic lockdowns. Beyond that, sales last month were the weakest they have been since December 2011.
Still, home prices continued to climb last month. The median home price was $379,100 in October, up 6.6% from one year ago, according to the report. But that’s down from the record high of $413,800 in June. The price increase marks more than a decade of year-over-year monthly gains.
“More potential homebuyers were squeezed out from qualifying for a mortgage in October as mortgage rates climbed higher,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “The impact is greater in expensive areas of the country and in markets that witnessed significant home price gains in recent years.”
Many homeowners who recently bought or refinanced into ultra-low mortgage rates are reluctant to sell. That has kept inventory painfully low.
At the end of October there were 1.22 million units for sale, down less than 1% from both last month and last year, according to the report. At the current sales pace, it would take 3.3 months to get through the existing inventory, up from 3.1 months in September and 2.4 months last year. But that’s still historically low: A balanced market is a 4 to 6 month supply.
“Inventory levels are still tight, which is why some homes for sale are still receiving multiple offers,” Yun added.
While nearly a quarter of homes in October sold over the asking price, homes sitting on the market for more than 120 days saw prices reduced by about 16%.
With fewer buyers shopping for homes, the average time a home stays on the market is getting longer.
Properties were typically on the market for 21 days in October, up from 19 days in September. Pre-pandemic, homes typically sat on the market closer to 30 days. Over half the homes sold in October were on the market for less than a month.
While prices are still climbing year over year nationally, the increase is smaller than it has been over the past couple years with annual home price appreciation peaking at 24% in May 2021.
And some markets are even seeing prices drop, especially areas that saw a huge increase in home price appreciation during the pandemic, Yun said.
Half the country can expect to see prices decline year over year in the months ahead, Yun said, most will be by a modest amount, while other areas will see bigger drops. But the other half will likely see a modest increase.
“Affordable areas will hold on, places like Indianapolis, where there is job growth,” he said.
Still, Yun said, nationally, home prices are 40% higher than in October 2019, prior to the pandemic.
“Household incomes have not risen by 40%,” he said.
Those struggling to buy their first home continued to be shut out, making up only 28% of transactions last month.
“First-time buyers are really struggling with high prices, the high bar to get into the market and high mortgage rates.”
Once the hurdle to homeownership improves a bit for buyers — either with falling prices or lower mortgage rates — we could again face a housing shortage, Yun said, because the number of fresh listings coming to market is lower now than a year ago.
Current homeowners aren’t selling and homebuilders are slowing home construction, too.
October housing starts, a measure of new home construction, dropped 4.2% from September, and were down 8.8% from a year ago, according to the US Census Bureau and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development.
“This is why more new home construction is needed, as well as more rehabilitation of disused buildings into residential units,” said Yun, noting that while construction of apartment buildings remains robust, single-family starts are below one year ago and well below historical averages.
“In the meantime, mortgage rates are falling from the peak levels of last month and the gate is opening for more homebuyers to qualify for a mortgage.”
Nvidia Corp.’s financial results had a bit of a surprise for investors, and not on the good side — product inventories doubled to a record high as the chip company gears up for a questionable holiday season.
Nvidia reported fiscal third-quarter revenue that was slightly better than analysts’ reduced expectations Wednesday, but the numbers weren’t that great. Revenue fell 17% to $5.9 billion, while earnings were cut in half thanks to a $702 million inventory charge, largely relating to slower data-center demand in China.
Gaming revenue in the quarter fell 51% to $1.57 billion. Nvidia said it is working with its retail partners to help move the currently high-channel inventories.
While the company was writing off the inventory for China, its own new product inventory was growing. Nvidia
NVDA,
-4.54%
reported that its overall product inventory nearly doubled to $4.45 billion in the fiscal third quarter, compared with $2.23 billion a year ago and $3.89 billion in the prior quarter. Executives cited its coming product launches, designed around its new Ada and Hopper architectures, when asked about the inventory gains.
In the semiconductor industry, high inventories can make investors nervous, especially after the industry had so many supply constraints in recent years that quickly swung to a glut of chips in 2022. With doubts about demand for gaming cards and consumers’ willingness to spend amid sky-high inflation this holiday season, having all that product on hand just amps up the nerves.
Full earnings coverage: Nvidia profit chopped in half, but tweaked servers to China offset earlier $400 million warning
Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress told MarketWatch in a telephone interview Wednesday that the company’s high level of inventories were commensurate with its high levels of revenue.
“I do believe….it is our highest level of inventory,” she said. “They go hand in hand.” Kress said she was confident in the success of Nvidia’s upcoming product launches.
Nvidia’s revenue reached a peak in the April 2022 quarter with $8.3 billion, and in the past two quarters revenue has slowed, with gaming demand sluggish amid a transition to a new cycle, and a decline in China data-center demand due to COVID-19 lockdowns and U.S. government restrictions.
For its data-center customers, the new architectures promise major advances in computing power and artificial-intelligence features, with Nvidia planning to ship the equivalent of a supercomputer in a box with its new products over the next year. Those types of advanced products weigh on inventory totals even more, Kress said, because of the price of the total package.
“It’s about the complexity of the system we are building, that is what drives the inventory, the pieces of that together,” Kress said.
Bernstein Research analyst Stacy Rasgon believes that products based on Hopper will begin shipping over the next several quarters, “at materially higher price points.” He said in a recent note that he believes Nvidia’s numbers were likely hitting a bottom in this quarter.
“We remain positive on the Hopper ramp into next year, and believe numbers have at this point likely reached close to bottom, with new cycles brewing and an attractive secular story even without China potential,” Rasgon said in an earnings preview note Tuesday.
Read also: Warren Buffett’s chip-stock purchase is a classic example of why you want to be ‘greedy only when others are fearful’
Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang reminded investors on a conference call that the company’s inventories are “never zero,” and said everyone is enthusiastic about the upcoming launches. But it doesn’t take too long of a memory to conjure up a time when Nvidia went into a holiday with an inventory backlog that included new architecture and greatly disappointed investors: Four years ago, Huang had to cut his forecast for holiday earnings twice amid a “crypto hangover” with similar dynamics to the current moment
Investors need faith that this holiday season will not be the same, even as demand for some videogame products declines after a pandemic boom just as the market for cryptocurrency — some of which has been mined with Nvidia products — hits a rough patch. Huang said that Nvidia’s RTX 4080 and 4090 graphics cards based on the Ada Lovelace architecture had an “exceptional launch,” and sold out.
Nvidia shares gained more than 2% in after-hours trading Wednesday, suggesting that some are betting that this time will be different. That enthusiasm needs to translate into revenue for Nvidia so that this big gain in inventories does not end up being part of another write-down at some point in the future.
said consumers pulled back on their spending in recent weeks, sapping sales and profits in the latest quarter and putting a cloud over its holiday season.
Quarterly profits came in below Target’s forecasts and the company’s sales growth lagged behind larger rival
Walmart Inc.
WMT 0.72%
in the period. Target executives lowered their financial goals for the holiday quarter and said they are prepared to offer deep discounts in the coming months to clear out unwanted inventory and attract shoppers.
Target shares dropped 13% in Wednesday trading on the earnings, which came in well below Wall Street’s estimates. It is the second time this year the retailer has misjudged consumer demand—in the spring executives said they were surprised by shifts away from furniture and appliances.
Government data released Wednesday showed that retail spending, including purchases at restaurants, car dealers and gas stations, rose 1.3% in October from September. The data aren’t adjusted for inflation and the government earlier reported that consumer prices rose 7.7% in October from a year earlier.
Target executives said that sales worsened sharply in October and November with guests’ shopping behaviors increasingly affected by inflation, rising interest rates and economic uncertainty.
“Clearly it’s an environment where consumers have been stressed,” said Target Chief Executive
Brian Cornell
on a call with reporters. “We know they are spending more dollars on food and beverage and household essentials, and as they are shopping for discretionary categories they are looking for promotions.”
Target executives said consumers are waiting to purchase items until they spot a deal, buying smaller pack sizes and giving priority to family needs. Sales of food, beverage, beauty products and seasonal items were strong, they said.
Retailers are facing an uncertain holiday season with high food and gas prices pinching some households. Target, like many of its peers, has been discounting to try to clear out a glut of goods this summer. Target’s inventory rose 14.4% in the October quarter from a year ago, while its revenue rose 3.4%. Quarterly net income tumbled by half.
“We are committed to being clean at the end of the holiday season,” regarding excess inventory, said Target Chief Financial Officer
Michael Fiddelke,
on a call with analysts Wednesday. If consumer trends of recent weeks persist, “it will come with more markdowns to make sure we accomplish exactly that goal.”
Rival TJX Cos. reported mixed quarterly results on Wednesday, with lower sales and higher profit margins. The off-price retailer said its U.S. comparable-store sales declined 2% in the quarter, as gains in its Marshalls and T.J. Maxx apparel chains were offset by a drop in its HomeGoods chain.
TJX said it was comfortable with its inventory levels heading into the holidays and said it now expected U.S. comparable-store sales to be flat or up 1% from a year ago.
Walmart gets over half of its U.S. revenue from groceries, while Target’s business is more skewed toward discretionary categories such as home goods, apparel, electronics and beauty products. As consumers absorb higher prices, many are pulling back spending where they can.
Consumer spending has held up relatively well so far despite inflation, but experts say we’re approaching an inflection point. WSJ’s Sharon Terlep explains the role “elasticity” plays in a company’s decision on whether to raise prices. Photo illustration: Adele Morgan
For the most recent quarter, Target said comparable sales, those from stores and digital channels operating at least 12 months, rose 2.7% in the quarter ended Oct. 29 compared with the same period last year.
On Tuesday Walmart said U.S. comparable sales rose 8.2% in the quarter. Walmart executives said the retailer is attracting more higher-income shoppers as many shift spending away from discretionary categories to food and look for value.
Target said it is gaining market share in its five main categories, even as consumers pull back spending in some cases. Existing shoppers are buying more and visiting more frequently, said Christina Hennington, Target’s chief growth officer. Traffic to stores increased 1.4% in the most recent quarter.
This year Target expects a hit to its gross margin of around $600 million due to shrink, the industry term for theft and other product loss, said Mr. Fiddelke. “We’ve seen that trend has grown over the course of the year,” he said.
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Target, which surprised investors by slashing its forecasts twice in the spring, on Wednesday reduced its sales and profits expectations for its fiscal year, which ends in January.
“We expect the challenging environment to linger on beyond the holiday,” said Mr. Fiddelke.
The company now expects a low-single-digit percentage decline in comparable sales and an operating margin around 3% for the fourth quarter. In August Target said sales would grow in the low- to mid-single-digit percentage range for the full year and operating margin would be around 6% for the second half of the year.
Target executives said they would look to cut at least $2 billion in costs over three years. Executives said the company isn’t planning major layoffs or hiring freezes as part of the new cost-cutting program, but streamlining processes inside the company.
Twitter users have complained a lot about Elon Musk’s early moves after taking control of the social network, but their complaints seem tiny compared with what Tesla Inc. investors have had to suffer.
As the U.S. focused on election returns Tuesday evening, Tesla
TSLA,
-7.17%
Chief Executive Musk tried to slip through disclosure of his long-awaited stock sales, revealing that he had sold nearly $4 billion of Tesla stock in the previous three trading sessions. Musk did not publicly address the stock sales nor his intentions to sell more within 24 hours of the disclosure, even while tweeting roughly 20 times in that period.
[MarketWatch asked him on Twitter to address the sales twice, and did not receive a reply; Tesla disbanded its media-relations department years ago.]
The sales fueled a further downturn in shares of the electric-vehicle maker on Wednesday, when the stock fell 7.2% to $177.59, its lowest closing price since November 2020. Tesla is currently down 49.6% on the year, which would be far and away the worst year yet for the stock — the previous record annual decline was 2016, when it fell 11%.
The problems for Tesla investors go far beyond Musk selling its stock so that he could overpay for a company with limited growth prospects and a host of other problems, but the poor optics certainly start there.
“He sold caviar to buy a $2 slice of pizza,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst.
Ives was one of several on Wall Street to predict Musk would need to sell more shares to either close a gap in his financing of the $44 billion deal to buy the social-media company, or provide additional operating funds. In a telephone conversation Wednesday, he said the Twitter move is “a nightmare that just won’t end for Tesla investors.”
One reason it isn’t ending is that Musk’s need for cash in relation to Twitter is not done with the recent sales, portending more in the future. Musk said in a tweet late last week that Twitter had a “massive drop in revenue” due to activists pressuring advertisers to pull their ads, and he will have to continue paying the employees he did not lay off while servicing a debt load that analysts have estimated will cost him $1 billion a year, much more than Twitter has cleared in profit in the past two years. Twitter reported a net loss of $221 million in 2021, and a net loss of $1.13 billion for 2020.
Read more about Elon Musk potentially pumping Tesla stock ahead of a sale
“The first two weeks of ownership have been a ‘Friday the 13th‘ horror show,” Ives said, adding that the verification plan and mass layoffs of 50% of employees — and then trying to rehire some of the engineers, developers and cybersecurity experts — was “really stupid.” And, according to CNBC, Musk has also pulled more than 50 Tesla engineers, many from the Autopilot team, to work at Twitter.
“But it’s consistent with how this thing has been handled,” Ives said, adding that Musk is “way over his skis” with the Twitter acquisition.
Amid all the chaos of his first two weeks running Twitter, how much time has Musk had to run his other companies? Musk was already splitting his Tesla time with SpaceX, The Boring Company, Neuralink and many other endeavors, and now he has taken on the gargantuan task of turning a social-media company that has never been highly profitable, nor valuable, into something worth the $44 billion he paid.
The effort, Ives said, has “tarnished his brand,” which in turn has a big risk of hurting Tesla. Many investors have bought into the Tesla story because they believe Musk is a genius and they back his vision of electrifying the automotive industry. Twitter does not meld into that vision, except as a platform to spout his opinions, vitriol and promote more wacky concepts.
Since Musk began his quest to buy the company, he has endured more criticism than ever before, with even some fans starting to throw shade or question his decisions. Investor Gary Black, managing partner of the Future Fund LLC, for example, pointed out that Tesla’s top engineers should not be running Twitter, where the news was getting worse.
Tesla is not a company that can just run itself at this point. Musk has claimed he did not want to be chief executive but that there was no one else to take over the car company, which is why he has served as CEO for years. It’s not clear, though, how much effort he actually has made at trying to recruit someone. Now, as Tesla faces its usual multitude of issues, he is off spending his time trying to turn Twitter into a payments company, or maybe a subscription company, or maybe an “everything app,” or whatever he comes up with tomorrow.
“Musk needs to look in the mirror and end this constant merry-go-round of Twitter overhang on the Tesla story, with his focus back on the golden child Tesla, which needs his time more than ever given the soft macro, production/delivery issues in China, and EV competition increasing from all corners of the globe,” Ives wrote in a note Wednesday, in which he reiterated an outperform rating on Tesla stock.
For Twitter to reach anywhere close to the valuation Musk paid for it, it’s going to need a ton of attention from a focused leader, but how can Musk be that leader and give Tesla the attention it deserves? The answer is he cannot, and is very likely to give the attention that Tesla needs to Twitter instead after committing $44 billion (not all of it his) to that endeavor. Tesla investors will be left staring at the sea of red that this year has wrought, and wondering if its leader is about to sell more shares to fund his other effort.
is leaving the department-store chain early next month to join
Levi Strauss
LEVI -2.12%
& Co. with plans to have her take over as the jeans maker’s CEO.
At Kohl’s, Ms. Gass has been under attack from activist investors for sales declines and a steep drop in the company’s stock price. In September, activist investor Ancora Holdings Inc., urged the company to replace Ms. Gass and its chairman. Kohl’s shares, down nearly 40% on the year, jumped 8% in early Tuesday trading.
Ms. Gass will leave Kohl’s Dec. 2 and join Levi Jan. 2, where she will serve as president with oversight of Levi’s brand and global digital and commercial operations. The 54-year-old will succeed Levi’s CEO
Chip Bergh
within 18 months, the company said. Mr. Bergh, who is 65 years old, has run Levi Strauss since 2011.
Kohl’s appointed
Tom Kingsbury
to serve as interim CEO until a permanent successor is named. Mr. Kingsbury is a former
Burlington Stores Inc.
CEO who joined Kohl’s board in 2021 as part of a settlement with activists. In a statement, Ancora said it was the right time to find new leadership and it was pleased that Mr. Kingsbury was the interim CEO.
Kohl’s also released preliminary results for the quarter ended Oct. 29. The company said that same-store sales decreased 6.9% compared with a year earlier. Net sales fell 7.2%. The company earned 82 cents a share compared with $1.65 a share.
It plans to report full results on Nov. 17.
Kohl’s, with roughly 1,100 stores, has struggled to attract shoppers amid rising competition from discounters, fast-fashion chains and online competitors. Earlier this year, Kohl’s scrapped plans to sell itself to the owner of Vitamin Shoppe—in a debt-funded deal initially worth $8 billion but later reduced. The company’s market capitalization has fallen to around $3 billion.
Ms. Gass wasn’t schooled in the art of selling clothes. She studied chemical engineering at Worcester Polytechnic Institute and received a master’s in business administration from the University of Washington. She then spent six years honing her marketing skills at
Procter & Gamble Co.
before joining
Starbucks Corp.
in 1996.
When she departed the coffee chain after nearly 17 years, founder
Howard Schultz
credited her with helping develop such products as the Frappuccino.
Ms. Gass joined Kohl’s in 2013 as chief customer officer with responsibility for marketing and the e-commerce business. In 2015, her role expanded to chief merchandising officer, and in 2018 she took over as CEO and joined the board.
Ms. Gass had some early success at the helm of Kohl’s, telling her team that they needed to think differently and shouldn’t be afraid to try new ideas. She formed a partnership with
Amazon.com Inc.
that allowed shoppers to use Kohl’s stores to return goods bought at the online retailer. Last year, she wooed Sephora away from JCPenney, where it had operated shops for more than a decade.
She overhauled the merchandise, dropping poorly performing brands such as Dana Buchman, and bringing in new ones, including Tommy Hilfiger, Eddie Bauer and Cole Haan. She expanded the selection of activewear from brands such as
Nike Inc.,
Adidas AG and
Under Armour Inc.
Ms. Gass also simplified discounts and pricing and is refurbishing stores. The company is on track to repurchase $1.3 billion in stock in the current fiscal year.
Yet, the moves haven’t improved Kohl’s business enough to satisfy some shareholders. While sales initially increased, they had started to decline even before the pandemic forced retailers to temporarily shut stores and kept consumers homebound. The company has faced two years with activist investors calling for board changes.
—Dean Seal and Lauren Thomas contributed to this article.
projected sales in the current quarter would be far below expectations, sending its stock plunging and offering the latest stark sign of how shifting economic forces are battering tech giants that thrived during the pandemic.
The company on Thursday said sales in the recently completed third quarter rose 15% from a year earlier, while net income was $2.9 billion—its first quarterly profit in 2022, though still a 9% decline from the same period last year.
The e-commerce giant jolted investors with its projection for revenue of $140 billion to $148 billion in the current period—analysts had expected more than $155 billion, according to FactSet. Amazon, which said the estimate includes a sizable hit from foreign-exchange factors, also said it anticipated operating income of anywhere between zero and $4 billion, reflecting the uncertainty looming over what is traditionally its biggest quarter of the year because of holiday shopping.
The company’s shares fell more than 12% in after-hours trading following the results to trade near $97. At that level, Amazon’s valuation is below $1 trillion, which it first hit in 2018.
The disappointing outlook capped an extraordinary several days that also saw shares of other tech giants plummet after their results showed worsening conditions in a range of areas.
Shares of
Facebook
parent Meta Platforms Inc., already battered over the past year, dropped nearly 25% on Thursday after it reported its second quarterly revenue decline in a row a day earlier.
Microsoft Corp.’s
stock also fell after it delivered on Tuesday its worst net income decline in more than two years and the weakest revenue growth in over five years. Google-parent
Alphabet Inc.
similarly disappointed investors with slowing sales.
These tech companies flourished during the pandemic, as life and work suddenly shifted more to the internet, pushing up sales and spurring the already fast-growing companies to accelerate hiring and investment.
Now, one after another, engines that drove that growth are sputtering. Sales of personal computers and other gadgets are falling. Consumers, walloped by inflation, are broadly trimming their spending, while companies are tightening their outlays for everything from digital ads to IT services.
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“There is obviously a lot happening in the macroeconomic environment, and we’ll balance our investments to be more streamlined without compromising our key long-term, strategic bets,” Amazon Chief Executive
Andy Jassy
said Thursday.
In the third quarter, Amazon’s online store sales rose 7% to $53.48 billion after falling in recent quarters. The segment includes product sales primarily on its flagship site and digital media content. Its online sales got a boost from its annual Prime Day sale, which this year fell in the third quarter where last year it was in the second quarter.
While still the nation’s largest online store, Amazon’s e-commerce division has struggled to grow this year. The company in the second quarter reported a 4% year-over-year drop in its online stores segment. That marked the largest drop since the metric was first reported in 2016.
This year, Amazon’s e-commerce machine—which has grown at breakneck speed for decade—has been showing signs that it could be entering a phase of slower growth. After a multibillion-dollar infrastructure build-out and hiring spree, it now has to contend with high inflation and concerns about a recession weighing on consumer spending.
Chief Financial Officer
Brian Olsavsky
said the company has entered a period of caution.
“We are preparing for what could be a slower growth period like most companies. We are going to be very careful on our hiring,” Mr. Olsavsky said during a call with reporters Thursday. “We certainly are looking at our cost structure and looking for areas where we can save money.”
He said Amazon is “seeing signs all around that people’s budgets are tight, inflation is still high.”
Analysts say the new challenges Amazon faces in e-commerce could linger.
Amazon has the largest share of online commerce, about 38%, but its market share has plateaued in recent years, according to market research firm Insider Intelligence. Analysts say the company’s size has made it unlikely the e-commerce unit’s growth would hit the same pace it once did. Amazon also is dealing with increased competition from
Walmart Inc.,
Target Corp.
and others.
Mr. Jassy has shifted toward cost-cutting. The company cut back on subleasing millions of square feet of excess warehouse space and put off opening new facilities while earlier thinning out its hourly workforce through attrition.
It enacted a hiring freeze through the end of the year at its corporate retail division, the segment that drives core sales and is responsible for a large part of this year’s slowdown. The company has paused hiring among some teams at its Amazon Web Services cloud-computing division.
While Amazon’s earnings continue to be aided by AWS and its expanding advertising business, growth slowed in the cloud business. AWS had sales of $20.5 billion during the third quarter, a 27% rise but one of the lowest rates of growth posted by the unit in recent quarters. Mr. Olsavsky said the company saw AWS customers “working to cut their bills.”
Amazon’s advertising revenues rose 25% to $9.5 billion.
Amazon is headed toward the end of the year with added challenges. After needing fewer blue-collar employees earlier in the year, it has looked to add more than 100,000 workers at its warehouses to meet the expected holiday demand. Still, that strategy has come with a cost. Amazon recently said it would spend $1 billion to raise average starting salaries to $19 an hour nationwide and is earmarking millions to raise wages and benefits for its delivery employees.
Consumers will be more likely to return to bricks-and-mortar stores for their holiday shopping this year, and economic concerns will likely weigh on spending, according to analysts. Amazon’s own
Jeff Bezos
seemed cautious about the future. He recently said it is time to “batten down the hatches,” referring to warning signs that the U.S. is headed for a recession.
Write to Sebastian Herrera at sebastian.herrera@wsj.com
The US housing market is in the midst of a major shift. After two years of stratospheric price appreciation, home prices have peaked and are on their way back down.
But what homebuyers and homeowners alike want to know is: How much lower will prices go?
The short answer: Prices are likely to drop further, but not by as much as they did during the housing bust. From the 2006 peak to the 2012 trough, national home prices fell by 27%, according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, which measures US home prices.
“It was different in 2008, 2009 because that drop in prices was because of a push from sellers,” said Jeff Tucker, senior economist at Zillow. “Because of foreclosures and short sales there were a lot of extremely motivated sellers who were willing to take a loss on their homes.”
Plus, that housing crash came at a time when the inventory of homes for sale was four times higher than it is now. Current inventory is still substantially lower than pre-pandemic levels, which has increased competition for homes. And that is keeping prices relatively strong.
“I would be surprised to see prices anywhere drop below where they were in 2019,” said Tucker. “There was some overheating in the housing market in 2021 through this spring that pushed prices higher than what the fundamentals would support. Now they are coming down.”
With mortgage rates more than doubling since the start of this year, the calculations for a homebuyer have changed considerably. The monthly principal and interest mortgage payment on the median priced home is up $930 from a year ago, a 73% increase, according to Black Knight, a mortgage data company.
When you factor in soaring mortgage rates, along with elevated home prices and wages that aren’t increasing as fast, buying a home is less affordable now than it has been in decades, according to Black Knight.
But there may be some relief in sight for buyers.
Economists at Goldman Sachs expect home prices to decline by around 5% to 10% from the peak hit in June.
Wells Fargo has recently forecasted that national median single-family home prices will drop by 5.5% year-over-year by the end of 2023.
Wells Fargo’s economists estimate that the median price for an existing single family home to be $385,000 this year, up 7.8% from last year, but the growth will be a lot less than the 19% year-over-year increase seen in 2021.
The economists anticipate the median home price will fall to $364,000, a decline of 5.5% from this year. They predict prices will rebound and rise again in 2024, with the median price ticking up 3.3% to 376,000 by the end of 2024.
“The primary driver behind the housing market correction thus far has been sharply higher mortgage rates,” the Wells Fargo researchers wrote. “If our forecast for Fed rate cuts is realized, mortgage rates are likely to fall slightly just as cooling inflation pressures boost real income growth. A modest improvement in sales activity should then follow, which will reignite home price appreciation heading into 2024.”
Ultimately, how much prices fall will depend on where you live.
Unlike the run-up in prices during the pandemic that caused home values in markets across the country to surge, the cooling off will be more regional, said Tucker. The drops will be more deeply felt in places where there were larger gains during the pandemic, many of them in the West and Sunbelt, including cities like Austin, Phoenix and Boise, he said.
“Nationally, we might see a 5% decline from the peak,” Tucker said. “But prices will decline by more in the West and there will be a smaller decline in the Southeast.”
In September, month-over-month home prices dropped in several pandemic hotspots, including Phoenix, down 2.3%; Las Vegas, down 1.9% and Austin, down nearly 1%, according to Zillow.
And Boise, Idaho, where prices surged nearly 60% during the pandemic, is already seeing annual declines, with prices falling 3.9% year over year in September, according to Zillow.
“A number of metro areas, especially in the West, will see some year-over-year price declines this spring,” said Tucker. “That will be the worst comparison time because that’s when many markets reached their peak.”
