To build a fire — but not destroy the market by doing so. That’s the goal right now. It’s not as easy as in the famous Jack London short story (“Too Build a Fire”) where in the end the survivors profit rather than freeze to death in their sleep. In the early part of this decade, we saw the rise of Robinhood (HOOD) and the distribution of investments from the serious to the ephemeral. These days, Robinhood has the appearance of one gigantic bonfire of young peoples’ money. The gamification concept was real and the exodus of investors was noisy — culminating with the ridiculous self-immolation of GameStop (GME), AMC Entertainment (AMC) and the meme stocks. Those who fought this trend abandoned Twitter, hired bodyguards and tried to hide from the angry mob that was attempting to will stocks higher by savaging the sellers. No tinder from these clowns. Then there was the much larger-than-expected romp to crypto. The people who bought it somehow ensconced their brains into something they didn’t understand. As a result, they overran their brains and outsourced them to others who claimed to know more than they did. You had to oppose a phalanx of vociferous, self-promoting scoundrels and their fintech allies in government and venture capital — all of whom should feel shame, but shame eludes them. They will not accept their intellectual disgrace, and instead continue to argue that it was all about blockchain and DeFi (decentralized finance). They want to explain to you why they got it right and you got it wrong, even as they lost everything and you were safe keeping your cash at JPMorgan. I wish I had a hubris scale, something like a gigantic thermometer that could measure these arrogant promoters and give them the hook when they contend that they are smarter than you for believing in something with a best-use case as untraceable ransom money. But this era is running out. It’s going to be done with a fight, of course, as we see its representatives defend themselves with specious arguments that sound so self-serving and outright phony that even neutral minds are repelled and rebelling. The money furnace that was Robinhood burns blandly versus the napalm of crypto. The interests that defended crypto can’t go quietly because they will empty the coffers of their crypto banks and cause waves of bankruptcies; the $34 billion that we know of that was destroyed by Sam Bankman-Fried — the disgraced former boss of failed crypto exchange FTX — pretty much propped up everything. We keep getting stung by the alleged due diligence done by so many who should have known better, with only a couple of institutions writing their investments to nothing, along with their explanations, or lack thereof. Here’s the problem: If it all goes away — crypto and all the institutions supporting it — the money that’s left won’t help push equity prices higher. It was once a magnet to a couple trillion dollars. Now I wonder if there’s $400 billion to the entire edifice. The whole thing reminds me of a line from the film “Beau Geste,” when two of the main characters are under attack: “You’ll do your duty better dead than you ever did alive.” The biggest guns are most likely liquidating as they talk, the duplicitous cads. They will tell us that we are fools not to believe in blockchain as if somehow that is dispositive to something other than lies and blunders. My point is this: The crypto con and the Robinhood dollar conflagration can’t produce enough money to buoy stocks. There’s not enough left in these embers to do anything but marvel at how much there used to be and how little bankruptcy produces. No matter how many hearings, we will never know the full culpability behind those in Congress and those in the Securities and Exchange Commission who opposed Chair Gary Gensler. He came on CNBC specifically to warn us of made-up coins and institutions that give you too high a return compared to cash in a real bank. Self-serving cryptocurrency players have been critical of the SEC. They want to school Gensler and let him know he can only go so far before running into all the well-endowed entities and their secret paid supporters. The horror! The horror! So where else will the money come from? Unlike the chimerical trillions that vanished into thin crypto air, the fuel will come from four stocks that have a combined total of $6 trillion to donate: Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN). There is simply too much money in these names to take us higher, or at least how high we can go after the Federal Reserve’s next meeting this week. But I think some of that investor money will be transferred into the stocks of companies that have the most voracious buybacks. Those are the companies without enough stock available to handle all the money that will flood in. Money in those four stocks will be pulled out, kicking and screaming, until the valuations become earthly — better than Meta Platforms (META) and more like the S & P as they are revealed to be mortal. Not until then can the rally start in earnest. Can these valuations be played out? It’s happening as you read this. Of course, there’s one other enemy to the advance and it’s a powerful one: The 4.5% yield from 2-year Treasuries is outrageously bountiful in a market where anything north of 4% in equities is likely tied to plummeting oil. However, we cling to the oils, betting that they can maintain their well above market prices when Russia can’t produce its endless reserves and China goes voracious upon reopening. I think we will win. We will hold Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon , even as we’ve trimmed them higher. Their spiral down to earth, however, will be painful. If we hadn’t sold some, it would be getting late in the game. But I suspect there’s more pain to come. Why take it? Because these companies still have value, even though it won’t surface until the selling’s done and we don’t know when that will occur. It’s too dangerous now to depart, although Apple could see $120 and Microsoft a 10-point decline. Amazon and Alphabet control their own destinies through headcount reductions. The good news? The selling could end after the Fed meeting. The bad news: If it does, there will not be enough rocket fuel. The big four need to shed a trillion minimum to power things higher. I think it will happen in time. Which would mean a brutal week until the transfer begins to be made. Hold on to what you have, but get ready to be lifted by the stocks with the strongest buybacks. That’s where the accumulation will matter the most. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Satya Nadella, chief executive officer of Microsoft Corp., during the company’s Ignite Spotlight event in Seoul, South Korea, on Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2022. Nadella gave a keynote speech at an event hosted by the company’s Korean unit.
SeongJoon Cho | Bloomberg | Getty Images
To build a fire — but not destroy the market by doing so.
That’s the goal right now. It’s not as easy as in the famous Jack London short story (“Too Build a Fire”) where in the end the survivors profit rather than freeze to death in their sleep.
In the early part of this decade, we saw the rise of Robinhood (HOOD) and the distribution of investments from the serious to the ephemeral. These days, Robinhood has the appearance of one gigantic bonfire of young peoples’ money. The gamification concept was real and the exodus of investors was noisy — culminating with the ridiculous self-immolation of GameStop (GME), AMC Entertainment (AMC) and the meme stocks. Those who fought this trend abandoned Twitter, hired bodyguards and tried to hide from the angry mob that was attempting to will stocks higher by savaging the sellers. No tinder from these clowns.