Tag Archives: reviving

German economy unexpectedly shrinks in Q4, reviving spectre of recession

  • Q4 GDP at -0.2% Q/Q vs forecast of 0.0%
  • Decline due mainly to falling private consumption
  • Economists reckon mild recession is likely

BERLIN, Jan 30 (Reuters) – The German economy unexpectedly shrank in the fourth quarter, data showed on Monday, a sign that Europe’s largest economy may be entering a much-predicted recession, though likely a shallower one than originally feared.

Gross domestic product decreased 0.2% quarter on quarter in adjusted terms, the federal statistics office said. A Reuters poll of analysts had forecast the economy would stagnate.

In the previous quarter, the German economy grew by an upwardly revised 0.5% versus the previous three months.

A recession – commonly defined as two successive quarters of contraction – has become more likely, as many experts predict the economy will shrink in the first quarter of 2023 as well.

“The winter months are turning out to be difficult – although not quite as difficult as originally expected,” said VP Bank chief economist Thomas Gitzel.

“The severe crash of the German economy remains absent, but a slight recession is still on the cards.”

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said last week in the government’s annual economic report that the economic crisis triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine was now manageable, though high energy prices and interest rate rises mean the government remains cautious.

The government has said the economic situation should improve from spring onwards, and last week revised up its GDP forecast for 2023 — predicting growth of 0.2%, up from an autumn forecast of a 0.4% decline.

As far as the European Central Bank goes, interest rate expectations are unlikely to be affected by Monday’s GDP figures as inflationary pressures remain high, said Helaba bank economist Ralf Umlauf.

The ECB has all but committed to raising its key rate by half a percentage point this week to 2.5% to curb inflation.

Monday’s figures showed falling private consumption was the primary reason for the decrease in fourth-quarter GDP.

“Consumers are not immune to an erosion of their purchasing power due to record high inflation,” said Commerzbank chief economist Joerg Kraemer.

Inflation, driven mainly by high energy prices, eased for a second month in a row in December, with EU-harmonized consumer prices rising 9.6% on the year.

However, analysts polled by Reuters predict annual EU-harmonized inflation will enter the double digits again in January with a slight rise, to 10.0%. The office will publish the preliminary inflation rate for January on Tuesday.

Reporting by Miranda Murray and Rene Wagner, editing by Rachel More and Christina Fincher

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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U.S. responds to Iran’s latest demands on reviving nuclear deal

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The Biden administration has completed its review of the proposed “final” text of a revived Iran nuclear deal, and of Iran’s response to the proposal, and sent its answer to European Union negotiation coordinators, the State Department said Wednesday.

Iran said it has begun its own “detailed review” of the U.S. reply, according to Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani.

The trading of response documents marked the latest step in an apparent endgame after nearly a year and a half of negotiations over a return to the 2015 agreement — lifting sanctions on Iran in exchange for its submission to strict curbs on its nuclear program and international monitoring — with no guarantee that a new deal will be reached.

“We are closer now than we were just a couple of weeks ago,” National Security Council communications coordinator John Kirby told reporters. “Gaps remain. We’re not there yet.”

The U.S. move came as Israel, whose national security adviser has been consulting in Washington this week, renewed its opposition to the deal. Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, speaking to reporters Wednesday in Jerusalem, said his government was “not against any agreement. We are against this agreement, because it is a bad one. Because it cannot be accepted as it is written right now.”

U.S. officials have said the terms of the new text are largely an update of the original agreement. President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the deal in 2018, reimposing lifted sanctions and adding many more. In response, Iran resumed its pre-deal nuclear program and speeded it up, increasing the quantity and quality of its uranium enrichment far beyond the prescribed limits that it had previously adhered to and blocking some inspection measures.

Experts urge return to Iran nuclear deal as prospects dim

Israel, and opponents of a new deal in Congress, have said that the lifting of nuclear-related sanctions will provide Iran with hundreds of billions of dollars to finance terrorist activities, and the early expiration of some of its provisions will quickly allow Iran to revive plans to manufacture a nuclear weapon. Administration officials dispute the dollar calculations and say that the reinstatement of limits on the Iranian nuclear program, even with some expiration dates, will provide several years’ relief from an imminent nuclear threat and room for further negotiations.

Iran has said that its program is only for peaceful purposes and that it has no plans to build a weapon.

State Department spokesman Ned Price announced the dispatch of the U.S. reply to E.U. foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, but provided no details on its contents. Borrell, in charge of orchestrating the negotiations, compiled the final text last month, saying that all possible compromises had already been reached. Iran transmitted a response early last week that Borrell characterized as “reasonable,” but with some proposed “adjustments.”

Kirby also declined to provide details of the U.S. reply. “We’re not going to want to negotiate this thing in public,” he said. “I don’t have a response to speak to today, and I don’t know that we ever will.”

Kirby acknowledged that Iran had previously “acceded to some concessions that has allowed us to get to where we are in the process,” including dropping its demand that the United States remove a terrorist designation against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a part of the Iranian military.

Most of Iran’s proposed adjustments involve which of thousands of U.S. sanctions the administration is prepared to lift and when, according to people familiar with the issue, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive diplomacy. That leaves the center of the dispute where it has been from the beginning — between the United States and Iran — with other parties to the original deal, including Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China, largely as bystanders.

As in the initial agreement, the United States has said it would lift only those sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear program. “It’s important for people to remember that what we’re talking about here is a return to the JCPOA,” shorthand for the original Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Kirby said. Iran must “stop spinning centrifuges” used to enrich uranium, “get rid of its enriched uranium” and agree to inspections, he said.

“Yes, there’s sanctions relief,” but “this deal is about their potential weapons capability. That’s where it was in 2015, that’s where it is today,” he said. As written, it does not eliminate or reduce “ample sanctions in place today that will stay in place … or preclude us from imposing others.”

Russia and China have indicated they would support the final text as written. Following a telephone call between President Biden and his British, French and German counterparts last weekend, the administration has said the Europeans agree with the U.S. response. Throughout the talks, Iran has refused direct negotiations with the United States, and the Europeans have acted as go-betweens.

Iran has also continued to demand that the International Atomic Energy Agency drop its investigation of radioactive traces found several years ago at several undeclared sites within the country. While a separate issue from the JCPOA, Iran has indicated it will not implement a new nuclear deal unless the investigation is dropped. Iran’s refusal to cooperate with the IAEA investigation led to a censure resolution this year from the agency’s board of governors.

“No deal will be implemented before the IAEA Board of Directors PERMANENTLY closes the false accusations file. Iran’s nuclear program will not be dismantled,” Seyed Mohammad Marandi, part of Iran’s negotiating team, said on Twitter on Tuesday.

Earlier in the week, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said that the investigation would continue. “So far, Iran has not given us the technically credible explanations that we need to explain the origin of many traces of uranium,” he told CNN. “Let us have an explanation. If there was nuclear material there, where is it now?”

Biden campaigned on a pledge to revive the original agreement. Start-and-stop negotiations began in April 2021, only to be halted after a few months for Iranian elections, which brought hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi to office. Amid lengthy haggling over which U.S. sanctions would be lifted, talks that resumed toward the end of the year included an Iranian demand that Biden guarantee that no subsequent U.S. administration would withdraw from a revived deal — something that it was impossible for him to deliver.

Iran is still asking for some sort of guarantee, according to the people familiar with the talks.

Shira Rubin in Jerusalem contributed to this report.

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How Scientists Are Reviving Cells in Dead Pigs’ Organs

The pigs had been lying dead in the lab for an hour — no blood was circulating in their bodies, their hearts were still, their brain waves flat. Then a group of Yale scientists pumped a custom-made solution into the dead pigs’ bodies with a device similar to a heart-lung machine.

What happened next adds questions to what science considers the wall between life and death. Although the pigs were not considered conscious in any way, their seemingly dead cells revived. Their hearts began to beat as the solution, which the scientists called OrganEx, circulated in veins and arteries. Cells in their organs, including the heart, liver, kidneys and brain, were functioning again, and the animals never got stiff like a typical dead pig.

Other pigs, dead for an hour, were treated with ECMO, a machine that pumped blood through their bodies. They became stiff, their organs swelled and became damaged, their blood vessels collapsed, and they had purple spots on their backs where blood pooled.

The group reported its results Wednesday in Nature.

The researchers say their goals are to one day increase the supply of human organs for transplant by allowing doctors to obtain viable organs long after death. And, they say, they hope their technology might also be used to prevent severe damage to hearts after a devastating heart attack or brains after a major stroke.

But the findings are just a first step, said Stephen Latham, a bioethicist at Yale University who worked closely with the group. The technology, he emphasized, is “very far away from use in humans.”

The group, led by Dr. Nenad Sestan, professor of neuroscience, of comparative medicine, of genetics and of psychiatry at the Yale School of Medicine, was stunned by its ability to revive cells.

“We did not know what to expect,” said Dr. David Andrijevic, also a neuroscientist at Yale and one of the authors of the paper. “Everything we restored was incredible to us.”

Others not associated with the work were similarly astonished.

“It’s unbelievable, mind blowing,” said Nita Farahany, a Duke law professor who studies ethical, legal and social implications of emerging technologies.

And, Dr. Farahany added, the work raises questions about the definition of death.

“We presume death is a thing, it is a state of being,” she said. “Are there forms of death that are reversible? Or not?”

The work began a few years ago when the group did a similar experiment with brains from dead pigs from a slaughterhouse. Four hours after the pigs died, the group infused a solution similar to OrganEx that they called BrainEx and saw that brain cells that should be dead could be revived.

That led them to ask if they could revive an entire body, said Dr. Zvonimir Vrselja, another member of the Yale team.

The OrganEx solution contained nutrients, anti-inflammatory medications, drugs to prevent cell death, nerve blockers — substances that dampen the activity of neurons and prevented any possibility of the pigs regaining consciousness — and an artificial hemoglobin mixed with each animal’s own blood.

When they treated the dead pigs, the investigators took precautions to make sure the animals did not suffer. The pigs were anesthetized before they were killed by stopping their hearts, and the deep anesthesia continued throughout the experiment. In addition, the nerve blockers in the OrganEx solution stop nerves from firing in order to ensure the brain was not active. The researchers also chilled the animals to slow chemical reactions. Individual brain cells were alive, but there was no indication of any organized global nerve activity in the brain.

There was one startling finding: The pigs treated with OrganEx jerked their heads when the researchers injected an iodine contrast solution for imaging. Dr. Latham emphasized that while the reason for the movement was not known, there was no indication of any involvement of the brain.

Yale has filed for a patent on the technology. The next step, Dr. Sestan said, will be to see if the organs function properly and could be successfully transplanted. Some time after that, the researchers hope to test whether the method can repair damaged hearts or brains.

The journal Nature asked two independent experts to write commentaries about the study. In one, Dr. Robert Porte, a transplant surgeon at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, discussed the possible use of the system to expand the pool of organs available for transplant.

In a telephone interview, he explained that OrganEx might in the future be used in situations in which patients are not brain-dead but brain injured to the extent that life support is futile.

In most countries, Dr. Porte said, there is a five-minute “no touch” policy after the respirator is turned off and before transplant surgeons remove organs. But, he said, “before you rush to the O.R., additional minutes will pass by,” and by that time organs can be so damaged as to be unusable.

And sometimes patients don’t die immediately when life support is ceased, but their hearts beat too feebly for their organs to stay healthy.

“In most countries, transplant teams wait two hours” for patients to die, Dr. Porte said. Then, he said, if the patient is not yet dead, they do not try to retrieve organs.

As a result, 50 to 60 percent of patients who died after life support was ceased and whose families wanted to donate their organs cannot be donors.

If OrganEx could revive those organs, Dr. Porte said, the effect “would be huge” — a vast increase in the number of organs available for transplant.

The other comment was by Brendan Parent, a lawyer and ethicist who is director of transplant ethics and policy research at New York University’s Grossman School of Medicine.

In a telephone interview, he discussed what he said were “tricky questions around life and death” that OrganEx raises.

“By the accepted medical and legal definition of death, these pigs were dead,” Mr. Parent said. But, he added, “a critical question is: What function and what kind of function would change things?”

Would the pigs still be dead if the group did not use nerve blockers in its solution and their brains functioned again? That would create ethical problems if the goal was to preserve organs for transplant and the pigs regained some degree of consciousness during the process.

But restoring brain functions could be the goal if the patient had had a severe stroke or was a drowning victim.

“If we are going to get this technology to a point where it can help people, we will have to see what happens in the brain without nerve blockers,” Mr. Parent said.

In his opinion, the method would eventually have to be tried on people who could benefit, like stroke or drowning victims. But that would require a lot of deliberation by ethicists, neurologists and neuroscientists.

“How we get there is going to be a critical question,” Mr. Parent said. “When does the data we have justify making this jump?”

Another issue is the implications OrganEx might have for the definition of death.

If OrganEx continues to show that the length of time after blood and oxygen deprivation before which cells cannot recover is much longer than previously thought, then there has to be a change in the time when it is determined that a person is dead.

“It’s weird but no different than what we went through with the development of the ventilator,” Mr. Parent said.

“There is a whole population of people who in a different era might have been called dead,” he said.

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Beirut silo collapses, reviving trauma ahead of blast anniversary

  • Silos a towering reminder of Aug. 4, 2020 explosion
  • Smouldering fire had put Beirut residents on edge for weeks
  • 2020 blast seen as symbol of corruption of Lebanese elite

BEIRUT, July 31 (Reuters) – Part of the grain silos at Beirut Port collapsed on Sunday just days before the second anniversary of the massive explosion that damaged them, sending a cloud of dust over the capital and reviving traumatic memories of the blast that killed more than 215 people.

There were no immediate reports of injuries.

Lebanese officials warned last week that part of the silos – a towering reminder of the catastrophic Aug. 4, 2020 explosion – could collapse after the northern portion began tilting at an accelerated rate.

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“It was the same feeling as when the blast happened, we remembered the explosion,” said Tarek Hussein, a resident of nearby Karantina area, who was out buying groceries with his son when the collapse happened. “A few big pieces fell and my son got scared when he saw it,” he said.

A fire had been smoldering in the silos for several weeks which officials said was the result of summer heat igniting fermenting grains that have been left rotting inside since the explosion.

The 2020 blast was caused by ammonium nitrate unsafely stored at the port since 2013. It is widely seen by Lebanese as a symbol of corruption and bad governance by a ruling elite that has also steered the country into a devastating financial collapse.

One of the most powerful non-nuclear blasts on record, the explosion wounded some 6,000 people and shattered swathes of Beirut, leaving tens of thousands of people homeless.

Ali Hamie, the minister of transport and public works in the caretaker government, told Reuters he feared more parts of the silos could collapse imminently.

Environment Minister Nasser Yassin said that while the authorities did not know if other parts of the silos would fall, the southern part was more stable.

The fire at the silos, glowing orange at night inside a port that still resembles a disaster zone, had put many Beirut residents on edge for weeks.

‘REMOVING TRACES’ OF AUG. 4

There has been controversy over what do to with the damaged silos.

The government took a decision in April to destroy them, angering victims’ families who wanted them left to preserve the memory of the blast. Parliament last week failed to adopt a law that would have protected them from demolition.

Citizens’ hopes that there will be accountability for the 2020 blast have dimmed as the investigating judge has faced high-level political resistance, including legal complaints lodged by senior officials he has sought to interrogate.

Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati has said he rejects any interference in the probe and wants it to run its course.

However, reflecting mistrust of authorities, many people have said they believed the fire was started intentionally or deliberately not been contained.

Divina Abojaoude, an engineer and member of a committee representing the families of victims, residents and experts, said the silos did not have to fall.

“They were tilting gradually and needed support, and our whole goal was to get them supported,” she told Reuters.

“The fire was natural and sped things up. If the government wanted to, they could have contained the fire and reduced it, but we have suspicions they wanted the silos to collapse.”

Reuters could not immediately reach government officials to respond to the accusation that the fire could have been contained.

Earlier this month, the economy minister cited difficulties in extinguishing the fire, including the risk of the silos being knocked over or the blaze spreading as a result of air pressure generated by army helicopters.

Fadi Hussein, a Karantina resident, said he believed the collapse was intentional to remove “any trace of Aug. 4”.

“We are not worried for ourselves, but for our children, from the pollution,” resulting from the silos’ collapse, he said, noting that power cuts in the country meant he was unable to even turn on a fan at home to reduce the impact of the dust.

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Writing by Nayera Abdallah and Tom Perry
Editing by Hugh Lawson, Nick Macfie and Frances Kerry

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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U.S. and Iran pessimistic about reviving nuclear deal

The Iranian flag waves in front of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) headquarters in Vienna, Austria May 23, 2021. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger//File Photo

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  • U.S. says can judge in a day or so if Iran acting in good faith
  • Not ‘a lot of cause for … optimism,’ U.S.’s Blinken says
  • Iran questions U.S., European intention to salvage deal
  • ‘We want all sanctions to be lifted at once,’ Iranian negotiator

VIENNA/STOCKHOLM, Dec 2 (Reuters) – The United States and Iran both sounded pessimistic on Thursday about the chances of reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, with Washington saying it had little cause for optimism and Tehran questioning the determination of U.S. and European negotiators.

“I have to tell you, recent moves, recent rhetoric, don’t give us a lot of cause for … optimism,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters in Stockholm, saying he could judge in a day or so if Iran would engage in good faith.

Blinken made the comments after Iran provided the European powers who are shuttling between U.S. and Iranian officials in Vienna with drafts on sanctions removal and nuclear commitments, as world powers and Tehran seek to reinstate the tattered pact.

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“We went to Vienna with serious determination, but we are not optimistic about the will and the intention of ⁧‫the United States ⁩and the three European parties to the deal,” Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian was quoted by Iranian media as saying in a telephone conversation with his Japanese counterpart.

While Blinken said “it is not too late for Iran to reverse course and engage meaningfully,” it appeared as if both sides might be seeking to avoid the blame if the talks break down.

The comments came on the fourth day of indirect U.S.-Iran talks on bringing both nations fully back into the deal, under which Iran limited its nuclear program in return for relief from U.S., European Union and U.N. economic sanctions.

Talks resumed on Monday after a five-month hiatus prompted by Iran’s election of an anti-Western hardliner as president.

“The blame game has been ongoing, to a certain extent, and is going to continue,” said Eurasia Group analyst Henry Rome, adding that even if the talks break down this week all sides have an interest in keeping the conversation going for now and there may be another round later this year or early next.

“Part of it is blame game, part of it is really wanting, at least from the Western side, to be sure to exhaust all options,” Rome said.

Keeping the talks going may also help Iran in “prolonging the period before I think there will very likely be a shift toward a more coercive Western position” and also provide some cover to advance their nuclear program, he said.

The U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Wednesday that Iran has started producing enriched uranium with advanced centrifuges at its Fordow plant dug into a mountain, further eroding the nuclear deal. read more

It was unclear whether Blinken had been briefed on the latest proposals by the Iranians when he made his pessimistic comments.

Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani said Iran had delivered two proposed drafts to the Europeans, one on sanctions removal and the other on nuclear limitations.

“We want all sanctions to be lifted at once,” Bagheri told reporters in Vienna, outlining a position unlikely to be warmly welcomed by the West, which has sought some kind of sequence under which Iran would return to the pact’s nuclear limits.

He said an Iranian proposal on how to verify the removal of sanctions – Tehran’s overriding priority in the talks – would be given to the European parties later.

Under the pact, Tehran limited its uranium enrichment programme, a potential pathway to nuclear weapons though Iran says it seeks only civilian atomic energy, in exchange for relief from the economic sanctions.

But in 2018, then-U.S. President Donald Trump abandoned the deal, calling it too soft on Iran, and reimposed harsh U.S. sanctions, spurring Tehran to breach nuclear limits in the pact.

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Reporting by Parisa Hafezi in Vienna and Humeyra Pamuk in Stockholm; Additional reporting by Francois Murphy in Vienna and by Doina Chiacu and Simon Lewis in Washington; Writing by Parisa Hafezi and Arshad Mohammed; Editing by Peter Graff, Mark Heinrich, Marguerita Choy and Daniel Wallis

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