NEW DELHI: India will align itself with the responses of the democratic bloc of countries on whether the incoming Taliban regime can be recognised, and much depends on the conduct of the new masters of Afghanistan in the weeks ahead.
Unlike in the past when India — as most other nations — did not recognise the Taliban regime led by Mullah Omer, fresh considerations may be at work in the current situation. “We will not be the first to recognise them, but will work with the democratic bloc to assess and take a call on the Taliban,” said a source. These countries could be western democracies, associations like the Quad, as well as Asian partners India has worked with in pursuing shared goals such as acting against terrorism and a rule-bound approach to international relations.
The current situation is seen to be still unfolding as the Taliban leadership is yet to formally claim leadership of Afghanistan and begin the process of formalising structures of governance, though it is clear that a new Islamic Emirate is on the cards, one that is close to India and will enjoy control over a state.
A key determinant will be Taliban’s response to concerns expressed by most nations over Afghanistan becoming a fount of terrorism and the likely treatment of citizens — whether the group will re-impose a harsh version of Islamic law and if incidents of violence and lawlessness will abound.
The role of Pakistan, and its likely leverage with the new occupants of Kabul is also being weighed, and it is felt apprehensions that Islamabad is set to gain a big advantage may need more evidence. Much depends on how the Taliban identify their priorities and how much they will cater to Pakistan’s interests.
It is pointed out that this time around, the Taliban seem a stronger and more confident force, emboldened by their takeover of Kabul on their own might. Pakistan’s ability to manipulate the regime could clash with Taliban seeing themselves as the new centre of the Islamic world rather than a “partner” of ISI.
Yet, Pakistan does have strong allies in the Haqqani network and it would look to ensure they occupy important portfolios in the new government. Pakistan was crucial in providing Taliban safe harbours but allies like Sirajuddin Haqqani also have a reputation for wanton bloodshed that can deter international recognition.
Sources said a negotiated takeover where Pakistan had a clear role would have helped Islamabad’s cause. As things turned out, theTaliban faced almost no resistance. It also remains to be seen if the group will make space for non-Pashtun communities or hog power. Also, whether the new leader or Emir, will be imposed right away or there will be a loya jirga process that may enhance his legitimacy.
Perhaps in recognition that Afghanistan has changed in the last 20 years, the Taliban have so far tread carefully. There is a significant Afghan population that has been exposed to progress, education and foreign travel, and a policy of outright suppression may not work well despite fear of torture and punishment.