A new year has dawned, and with it a new season. College hoops has officially pivoted from nonconference play — replete with easy buy games, titillating challenges, and tournaments played inside casinos and at tropical locales — to conference play, during which teams must travel through frigid temperatures and try win games in hostile cauldrons. That means no more hiding, and no more smooth sailing for anyone. It’s nothing but frigid, choppy waters ahead.
So this might be the last time all season that I can say there was not much movement on my ballot. Here, then, for the first time in 2023, I present the correct order of the top 25 teams in men’s college basketball, as submitted to the Associated Press on Sunday night:
Seth Davis’ Top 25 for Monday, Jan. 2
Dropped out: North Carolina (16), Kentucky (19), Memphis (21)
Almost Famous: Auburn, Florida Atlantic, Illinois, Missouri, Providence, Saint Mary’s, Utah State
Notes on the votes
• Those of you who follow my rankings closely (and you know who you are) understand that I consider far more than just whether a team won or lost games the previous week. I put added weight on whom it played, how it played, and most of all, where it played. We all know it’s really, really hard to win on the road. Conversely, that means a top-25 team should win at home, especially if it’s against a team that’s ranked lower or not at all.
I had three results inside my top five from last Saturday that I needed to consider: UConn’s 83-73 loss at Xavier, Kansas’ 69-67 home win over Oklahoma State, and Arizona’s 69-60 win at Arizona State. I almost left UConn at No. 2, because there is no shame in losing to a good team on the road, and the Huskies have been arguably the best team in the country this season. I was compelled, however, to bump Arizona up a couple of spots because its win was decisive, and it happened against a good team on the road. Arizona also had a neutral-court win over Indiana and a home win over Tennessee in December, which pushed its 81-66 loss at Utah on Dec. 1 deeper into the rearview mirror. Most teams will have a bad game once in a while, and that loss was to a conference opponent on the road.
As for Kansas, I generally don’t believe in punishing teams after wins, but the Jayhawks were playing at home against an unranked team in Oklahoma State that has lost this season to Southern Illinois and UCF, and they darn near lost. I don’t consider moving a team down one slot much of a punishment anyway, but the Jayhawks dropped because of my decision to leapfrog Arizona.
GO DEEPER
Bill Self’s deft coaching moves send Kansas to another comeback win
• I’m guessing there is still some confusion as to why I have Houston at No. 8 when the Cougars were No. 3 in the AP poll last week and are No. 1 in the NET, KenPom and BartTorvik. The answer lies in their resume. Houston’s best win was at Virginia. A fabulous road win, no doubt, but Virginia also lost its next game at Miami. Other than that, Houston’s best win came in Fort Worth over unranked Saint Mary’s. It also has several wins over unranked teams that were uncomfortably close, including Saturday’s 71-65 home win over UCF. It’s notable that Houston is No. 7 in Kevin Pauga’s KPI rankings, which is based solely on results, whereas the other metrics are intended to be predictive. There are also some head-to-head results to consider. Houston lost at home to Alabama, so shouldn’t the Cougars be ranked behind the Crimson Tide? And Alabama lost to Gonzaga in Birmingham later that week, so shouldn’t the Tide be behind the Zags? Given that Houston is by far the best team in its conference, I expect this team will keep winning and rise in the rankings accordingly, but that’s why I have the Cougars where they are. Metrics are useful, but they’re not gospel.
• To expand on my point about the metrics, let’s look at some teams where the rankings seem to be way off, for better and worse. Is there anyone who would argue that Miami doesn’t deserve to be ranked? Well, the Hurricanes are 33rd in the NET, 37th on KenPom, and 50th on BartTorvik. Yet, KPI has them at No. 9. They shouldn’t be ranked that high, but in this case, KPI is much closer to accurate.
Then there are the two teams that the metrics love to hate: Wisconsin (44 NET, 42 KenPom, 49 BartTorvik) and Providence (57 NET, 44 KenPom, 58 BartTorvik). KPI is split on this one – it has Wisconsin at 12, and Providence at 64. This is all because the metrics do not like teams that win a lot of close games. Yet, when they calculate the standings and the Quad records, a win counts the same whether it comes by one or 100. By the way, Providence has a big game Wednesday night at home against UConn. The Huskies won’t be in a great mood, but it’s not often you get to play a top-five team on your home court. The Friars would do well to at least pass the eye test.
On the flip side, the metrics are smitten with West Virginia (13 NET, 20 KenPom, 13 BartTorvik, 25 KPI), even though the Mountaineers’ best win was at Pittsburgh and they just lost at Kansas State in their Big 12 opener. Auburn also has strong metrics and continues to be ranked in the AP top 25 even though the Tigers’ resume is very meh. Their best win was on a neutral court over Northwestern, and they have losses in December to Memphis (neutral) and USC (road).
• The big winner this week, of course, was Xavier. That was an amazing win the Musketeers pulled off Saturday under immense pressure. The two things that stood out to me were Jack Nunge’s 15 points, three rebounds and three assists while battling a virus. Most people don’t want to get out of bed when they’re that sick, much less play a high-level basketball game, but Nunge pulled through like a champ. The other was the contributions off the bench by 6-7 senior forward Jerome Hunter, a Glue Guy who played for Sean Miller’s brother, Archie, at Indiana. Xavier is a really good offensive team but only a so-so-defensive one. Hunter gives this team the toughness it needs at that end of the floor. He will become an extremely valuable piece during the dog days of February.
• I’ve been more supportive of North Carolina and Kentucky than my fellow voters, but those teams made it easy for me to drop them after losing to Pitt and Missouri, respectively. Speaking of Missouri, I gave the Tigers a hard look, not only for their win over Kentucky but also their evisceration of Illinois in the Braggin’ Rights game. Frankly, I’m not quite sure just how good those teams are, and the Tigers had a very suspect nonconference schedule otherwise, so I decided to wait just a little bit longer before putting a number next to their name. But if they keep playing like this, it’s only a matter of time.
GO DEEPER
Is John Calipari now the Jimbo Fisher of college basketball?
• Memphis’ loss at Tulane on Sunday opened up another spot. I’ve been stumping for Creighton the last couple of weeks — I even gave the Jays a coveted Buy-Plus rating in my annual Hoop Thoughts Stock Report — so I gave them the final spot even though it doesn’t take much to beat Butler and DePaul at home. My point all along was that the reason Creighton plummeted so badly was because Ryan Kalkbrenner was out, but now that he’s back, I expect them to surge again. They’ve got Seton Hall at home and UConn on the road this week, to be followed by Xavier (road) and Providence (home) next week. We’ll find out soon enough whether my faith in this team is justified.
Jeff Brohm is leaving Purdue to return home to Louisville, opening up another Power 5 job. Brohm did an excellent job with the Boilermakers and leaves the program on a high note. He won 17 games the past two seasons, the Big Ten West this year, and finished 12-6 in Big Ten play. Purdue is a tough job, though, and it probably has only gotten tougher with Michigan continuing its ascent, Illinois springing back to life under Bret Bielema and Nebraska and Wisconsin adding top-tier head coaches in Matt Rhule and Luke Fickell respectively.
Purdue has produced a lot of good NFL talent but big success on the field in the Big Ten has been spotty. The program hasn’t won 10 games since 1979 — the school’s only 10-win season. Joe Tiller did well a generation ago but prior to Brohm’s arrival Purdue had a dud of a decade of football. We suspect the Boilermakers will lean toward an offensive mind, since most of their success came under Brohm and Tiller.
Head coach candidates
Dino Babers, Syracuse: Babers spent three seasons as a Purdue wide receivers coach in the early 1990s. He’s a good offensive coach and has a lot of presence. Babers is 61, but seems at least 10 years younger. He also knows the area well from four impressive seasons as head coach at Eastern Illinois and Bowling Green. He’s been up-and-down at Syracuse in his seven seasons there; this year, the Orange went 7-5 but peaked at No. 14 in the nation before losing five in a row. And that’s a program that is in a really tough place to win now.
Troy Calhoun, Air Force: Calhoun has done well at Air Force for a long time. He coached in the MAC at Ohio for a half-dozen years in the 1990s. He’s 33-11 the past four years. He’s a really good coach and very good on offense. The Oregon native is 56 and might make a lot of sense for the Boilermakers.
Jason Candle, Toledo: Candle, 43, is another really good offensive mind who Miami almost hired a year ago as offensive coordinator. He just led Toledo to a MAC title and he’s been on a lot of athletic directors’ radars for awhile. He got off to a fast start there, succeeding his buddy and former Mount Union teammate Matt Campbell, going 11-3 in his second season. Since then, his teams have been good more than great, but he has shown he can be a consistent winner.
Kane Wommack, South Alabama: Wommack has a strong defensive background and is a rising star in coaching. The 35-year-old knows the Big Ten well. His defense at Indiana in 2020 played a huge role in the Hoosiers finishing No. 12. He took over a program that has never had a winning season in 11 years at the FBS level and the Jaguars went 10-2; their two losses this year came by a combined five points, including a one-point loss to top-10 UCLA. If Purdue is not locked in on an offensive coach, he should get strong consideration.
Assistant coach candidates
Among these rank four men with strong Big Ten ties we think might get some consideration and a fifth who might be an attractive option.
Todd Monken, Georgia OC: The latter is Monken, who is actually from Wheaton, Ill., two and a half hours away. The 56-year-old won the national title last year and has put the Bulldogs in good position to win a second. He’s helped turn former walk-on Stetson Bennett into a Heisman finalist and has created unique ways to exploit the talent of tight end Brock Bowers. A former NFL OC, Monken did an outstanding job as a head coach at Southern Miss, taking the Golden Eagles from 1-11 his first year to 9-5 in his third season despite big administrative challenges.
Jim Leonhard, Wisconsin defensive coordinator: Leonhard, who went 4-3 as the Badgers’ interim head coach this year, will leave his alma mater after the bowl game. Right after he took over, the Badgers beat Brohm and the Boilermakers 35-24. He’s shown that he’s one of the brightest defensive minds in football. Expect Leonhard to be a hot commodity in college and the NFL for places looking to upgrade the defense. Would be a fit for Purdue as a leader? We’ll see.
Sherrone Moore, Michigan co-OC/offensive line coach: Moore has been a huge asset to Jim Harbaugh and has proven to be a very good play caller this year. The 36-year-old’s O-line won the Joe Moore Award and this year’s unit is even more deserving of it. Moore has been critical for Jim Harbaugh staff, turning this team into the bully of the Big Ten and dominating arch-rival Ohio State the past two years. The Wolverines rushed for 549 yards in those two games combined. We know Moore is going to be a very choosy about his next move and is locked in on trying to win a national title, but Purdue brass might want to still reach out.
Ryan Walters, Illinois DC: Walters has made a big impact in the Big Ten in helping the Illini breakthrough, turning one of the country’s worst defenses into the second-best (at 4.26 yards per play allowed). The 36-year-0ld Colorado product, who came from Missouri, has risen up the ranks fast and is a name to remember.
Brian Hartline, Ohio State passing game coordinator: Hartline was a candidate at Cincinnati and might be in play here. The 36-year-old is arguably the top position coach in college football for his work recruiting and developing the Buckeyes’ incredibly stacked receiver room. The Ohio native would have to consider a solid Big Ten job if offered. We know he can get talent.
Wild cards
Kevin Sumlin: The former Purdue linebacker has deep ties inside the school. Sumlin, 58, was the hottest coach in college football a decade ago. He fizzled out at Texas A&M after leading the Aggies to their first top-5 season in a half-century. (He went 51-26 there, which is actually better than his successor Jimbo Fisher has done there since.) Sumlin then took Arizona and that proved to big a big mistake for both him and the Wildcats. He had a dismal run, going 9-20. If he’s re-energized and re-focused, this could be an interesting fit.
Dan Mullen: The former Florida and Mississippi State head coach had two top-10 seasons before the bottom dropped out on him in 2021 after a lot of bad recruiting caught up to his program. Mullen, 50, spent a season doing TV. If he’s re-dedicated and can put together a good staff, he also might be an attractive option.
(Top photo of Dino Babers: Rich Barnes / USA Today)
There has been a general sense around the College Football Playoff conversation that TCU is lucky to be there and that one loss will knock the Horned Frogs out. But that shouldn’t be the case.
No doubt, TCU has needed a number of second-half comebacks to win, none more notable than the fire drill game-winning field goal to beat Baylor on Saturday. But this goes back further. Last week, ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith dismissed the Frogs and said they hadn’t played anyone and that “competition matters.” He read off the schedule and said it isn’t deserving of a top-four ranking, even if undefeated.
It got a lot of reaction, because that’s the point, after all. But Smith was not alone. Paul Finebaum, in the same segment, agreed and downplayed the quality of the Big 12.
What Smith, Finebaum and others missed is that the Big 12 is the deepest conference in the country. Eight of 10 teams are bowl-eligible. There are no pushovers, and the nine conference games are more than the SEC or ACC. Among the CFP top four, TCU has the strongest strength of schedule in multiple ratings, including ESPN’s FPI and Sagarin. The Horned Frogs are No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record, which evaluates the chances the average top-25 team would have that same record against the same schedule.
An undefeated TCU will make the CFP. We know that. The conversation we should be having is whether or not a one-loss TCU should get in.
All of that said, the place where you can ding the Frogs is they lack a true marquee win. Georgia beat Oregon and Tennessee. Ohio State and Michigan beat Penn State. Every team TCU has defeated has at least three losses. That’s in part due to the depth of the conference. But if you want to prove you can beat a top-tier team, TCU hasn’t done that and won’t have a chance to. (Michigan and Ohio State will try to prove it against each other.) That ultimately could be what keeps TCU out if it doesn’t win the next two games.
But what you can’t say is that TCU hasn’t played anyone. You can’t say it hasn’t deserved these victories. After a weekend in which Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan all struggled against far inferior opponents, maybe pulling out a late November comeback at Baylor proved the Horned Frogs do belong.
Here is this week’s edition of The Athletic 131.
1-10
Rank
Team
Record
Prev
1
11-0
1
2
11-0
2
3
11-0
3
4
11-0
4
5
10-1
7
6
9-2
6
7
10-1
9
8
9-2
5
9
9-2
8
10
9-2
11
There is no change in the top four, and the moment of truth is here. After Michigan escaped Illinois, I thought I would finally put Ohio State ahead. Then the Buckeyes had to escape against Maryland. Every argument you can make about these two teams has its points. Ohio State has a better second win (Notre Dame), while Michigan didn’t play anyone in nonconference. Michigan flattened Penn State, while Ohio State needed a fourth-quarter comeback. Ohio State’s struggles in certain conditions make me think this could be a replay of last year, when Michigan’s toughness in the trenches won out. But now Wolverines running back Blake Corum may be hurt, and quarterback J.J. McCarthy has not been very good. I’m not sure if Michigan can win a big game with his arm.
I still lean toward Michigan slightly, but now it will finally be settled on the field and we can move on to arguing if the loser should be in the CFP.
Michigan held onto an undefeated record before the Ohio State game. (Rick Osentoski / USA Today)
USC finally got a marquee win, beating UCLA 48-45, which moves the Trojans ahead of LSU. The Tigers do have wins against Alabama and Ole Miss and the schedule is tougher. But USC doesn’t have a lopsided loss, and the Oregon State win on the road is valuable. Either way, both of these teams still control their destiny for the CFP, I believe.
Clemson jumps up to No. 7 due to Tennessee’s lopsided loss to South Carolina. The loss to Notre Dame still holds Clemson down, but the Florida State win has gotten better with time.
Tennessee’s 63-38 loss to South Carolina makes the Vols a very difficult team to place. They’re out of the CFP race, but wins against LSU and Alabama keep them from dropping further. The only other change is Washington moving into the top 10 after Utah’s loss to Oregon.
11-25
Penn State is an odd team to judge as well. The 9-2 Nittany Lions have seven blowout wins, but they’re against relatively weak competition. None of the wins stand out. They got manhandled at Michigan but played Ohio State tough. Oregon stays ahead of Penn State because it has two marquee wins against Utah and UCLA. Notre Dame continues to inch up and up, and Clemson’s move back up makes that Irish win even better. The Irish also moved ahead of Florida State because of the Clemson results between them.
The Group of 5’s New Year’s Six spot is still likely to go to the American Athletic Conference champ, but it’s about time Coastal Carolina, UTSA and Troy are recognized for the seasons they’re having as well.
26-50
Illinois stays put after the narrow loss at Michigan because of the effort and because of other results around the country. UCF drops out of the top 25 after a loss to Navy but remains ahead of Cincinnati because of the head-to-head. That could change when Cincinnati and Tulane meet this week. Iowa is back, controlling its destiny in the Big Ten West after beating Minnesota. Kirk Ferentz keeps doing just enough.
South Carolina is another tough team to place. The blowout win against Tennessee is one of the most impressive of the season, but the Gamecocks also got trounced by Florida last week and lost to Arkansas earlier in the season. The Razorbacks stay behind Liberty because of the head-to-head loss.
Oklahoma moves ahead of Oklahoma State after Saturday’s 28-13 Bedlam win. Boise State’s win at Wyoming clinched the Mountain West’s Mountain division and home field in the league championship game. The Broncos are 6-1 since a 2-2 start, when they fired their offensive coordinator and QB Hank Bachmeier entered the transfer portal. They’ve figured things out, but losses to UTEP and BYU still keep them behind other Group of 5 teams.
51-75
Wisconsin sneaked into bowl eligibility for the 21st consecutive season with a 15-14 comeback win against Nebraska. It hasn’t been pretty, but it looks like Jim Leonhard will probably get the full-time job. Houston demolished East Carolina 42-3 and continues to be one of the most inconsistent teams in the country. James Madison is 7-3 in its first FBS season, but it is not eligible for the postseason as a transitioning FCS team. However, the Dukes can still win a share of the Sun Belt East if they beat Coastal Carolina this week.
Iowa State lost 14-10 to Texas Tech and will miss a bowl game. The Cyclones are 3-11 in one-possession games over the past two seasons. SMU has allowed 145 points over the past three games, including 59 in Thursday’s loss to Tulane. Wyoming’s narrow loss to Boise State doesn’t drop the Cowboys far. Appalachian State and Georgia Southern will play for bowl eligibility in their rivalry game next week, as App State is not yet eligible because it has two FCS wins. Texas A&M got past UMass in another uninspiring performance. How about Vanderbilt? The Commodores have defeated Kentucky and Florida in consecutive weeks.
Fresno State turned around its season in a big way and clinched the Mountain West’s West division with a 41-14 win against Nevada, its sixth consecutive win. San Diego State has won five of six (the loss coming to Fresno State) and quarterback Jalen Mayden has given that offense a boost for the first time in a long time.
76-100
Miami had nine yards at halftime against Clemson and lost 40-10. The Canes must beat Pitt to get to a bowl game. Georgia Tech beat North Carolina 21-17, and Brent Key is 4-3 as interim head coach with two Top 25 wins. Ohio’s bounce-back continued with a 32-18 win against Ball State, and the Bobcats are one win away from winning the MAC East, but the status of injured quarterback Kurtis Rourke is key.
Cal beat rival Stanford 27-20. UConn lost to Army 34-17 and must wait and hope for a bowl selection. FAU lost 49-21 to Middle Tennessee with bowl eligibility on the line and must beat WKU next week. Rice (at North Texas) and UTEP (at UTSA) also need upsets next week to get to bowl games and perhaps save their coaches’ jobs. Indiana beat Michigan State 39-31 in double overtime despite being heavily outgained and completing just two passes. Virginia Tech ended its long losing streak with a 23-22 win at Liberty. UNLV began the season 4-1 but has lost six consecutive games after a 31-25 loss at Hawaii, ending its bowl hopes.
101-131
Bowling Green got bowl-eligible with a last-second touchdown at Toledo in the snow in a wild finish. The Falcons are still in the mix for the MAC East title if they can beat Ohio. Buffalo’s game against Akron was snowed out and could impact that MAC East tiebreaker. Navy beat UCF and Army beat UConn, and both did so without completing a pass. Neither academy will have a bowl game or the Commander-In-Chief’s trophy to compete for (because Army has two FCS wins and Air Force clinched the CIC), but that rivalry game is always special. The middle of the MAC continues to have a lot of parity. UMass fought valiantly against Texas A&M and covered the spread in a 20-3 loss, but it’s not enough to move out of the bottom spot.
Once the games end on college football Saturday, my work begins. That’s when I pore over the coaches’ film, taking notes and writing reports …
Here are 10 prospects who impressed over this past weekend, along with an all-22 clip (or two or three) to illustrate what makes each an intriguing NFL prospect:
With thousands of prospects on the radar for the 2023 NFL Draft, I rarely have the time to focus on freshmen or sophomores who aren’t yet draft-eligible (Bowers can turn pro after next season). But it is impossible to overlook the impact and talent of Bowers, who announced himself as a star last season as a freshman and is only getting better this year as a sophomore.
Against South Carolina on Saturday, Bowers split his 33 offensive snaps between the slot (17), inline (11) and out wide (5), as the Georgia offense used him across its formations. All the ways he can impact the game were on display for his three touchdowns (two receiving and one rushing).
The first score came early in the first quarter on a reverse from the 5-yard line. Who runs a reverse with a tight end, especially in the red zone where the field is condensed and defenders are closer to the line of scrimmage? Well, Georgia does, because it has a talent like Bowers with the speed to eliminate those pursuit angles.
The second score was a back-shoulder fade with Bowers again lined up wide. In the clip below, you’ll notice that the cornerback has tight coverage and gets his hands on the football, but Bowers displays his dominance — he snatches the football and has the wherewithal to make sure a foot (maybe two; it was close) stayed inbounds.
The third touchdown showcased what really separates Bowers from most tight ends. Yes, it is a coverage bust that leaves Bowers wide open in the middle of the field, but few tight ends have the skills to turn this catch into a 78-yard touchdown. Bowers makes two defensive backs miss with his balance and power and accelerates to top speed quickly to outrace everyone else. His ability after the catch creates flashbacks of Travis Kelce or George Kittle.
I’m a supporter of the NFL rule that says players must be three years removed from high school to be draft-eligible because 99 percent of 18- and 19-year-olds aren’t ready for the NFL. And now with NIL, players will have a chance to earn money while they develop at the college level. However, Bowers is part of the one percent who could be scoring touchdowns on Sundays right now if given the chance.
I avoid speaking in absolutes when it comes to the draft, especially this early. But it’s not a hot take to say if the draft happened tomorrow and he was eligible, Bowers would be a lock as a top-10 pick.
Olu Fashanu, LT, Penn State (6-6, 315)
Most evaluators agree: This offensive tackle draft class appears lackluster in terms of high-end talent. But Fashanu is one of the up-and-coming youngsters in college football who could help change that narrative. He has already been a clear upgrade at left tackle for the Nittany Lions over Rasheed Walker, who was drafted this past April by the Green Bay Packers.
Fashanu was dominant — especially in pass protection — against Penn State’s first two opponents, which made his matchup on Saturday with Auburn a must-see for NFL scouts. And Fashanu handled himself very well against a defensive line with several future pros. Fashanu even shut out Derick Hall, a potential day-two draft pick, when he was pitted against the senior pass rusher.
With only four career starts, Fashanu is still relatively young — and that pops up at times, especially in the run game. But he has the wide blocking base and athletic body control to answer whatever rushers throw at him off the edge. Fashanu can anchor down versus power and also shows the hand strength to own the point of attack. He is still building his resume, but the early results are very positive. Based on what he has put on tape already, Fashanu is on a first-round trajectory.
Zach Evans, RB, Ole Miss (6-0, 215)
The No. 31 player on my early draft board, Evans made the move from TCU to Ole Miss this offseason and, as expected, has been the featured playmaker in Lane Kiffin’s offense. Against Georgia Tech on Saturday, he led the Rebels with 134 yards rushing (7.4 yards per carry) and a pair of touchdowns.
The play above is beautifully designed and blocked, but Evans’ explosive athleticism is what turns it into a 26-yard touchdown. His cut-and-go acceleration makes the defenders look like they are moving at half-speed and allows Evans to sneak through the hole just as it starts to tighten. Once he reaches the second level, Evans displays the vision and speed to eliminate pursuit angles and finish in the end zone.
There will be tougher tests on the schedule once Ole Miss reaches SEC play, but the Georgia Tech defense had been allowing under three yards per carry entering last weekend. Texas’ Bijan Robinson (who just had a dominant 183-yard performance against UTSA) is the draft’s top running back, but Evans and Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs aren’t far behind.
GO DEEPER
Scouting Zach Evans: What to know about Ole Miss RB ahead of 2023 NFL Draft
Like I mentioned in last week’s NFL Draft Watch, Jones has been one of the season’s most impactful transfer prospects. And that continued this past weekend during Purdue’s loss in the final seconds to Syracuse — Jones finished with 11 receptions for 188 yards, including this fourth-quarter, 55-yard touchdown:
Lined up at the top of the screen, Jones cooks cornerback Garrett Williams with pure speed that the defender can’t match. Quarterback Adrian O’Connell, who had an up-and-down performance Saturday, delivers the ball when his receiver and the corner are hip-to-hip. Jones then does an outstanding job stacking, tracking the ball and creating late separation by accelerating through the catch.
After he was underutilized for two seasons in an anemic Iowa offense, Jones was a borderline draft pick for NFL evaluators entering the season — he had 21 catches for 323 yards and three TDs as a Hawkeye in 2021. As the featured weapon in the Boilermakers’ air attack, though, Jones already has 32 receptions for 474 yards and five touchdowns, in only three games with his new team. His route athleticism and ball skills are NFL-quality and plays like the one seen above (against a future NFL corner) are why his draft stock continues to rise.
DJ Johnson, edge, Oregon (6-4, 265)
For some prospects, it takes time and tinkering for them to approach their potential. Johnson falls in that category. After starting his college career at Miami (Fla.), he bounced between offense and defense with the Ducks — as a junior in 2021, Johnson logged 98 snaps on offense and 152 snaps on defense, while also seeing time on special teams. Prior to this season, Johnson moved to defensive end full-time and earned some attention after a high ranking on Bruce Feldman’s “Freaks List.”
Johnson has always had intriguing traits with his athleticism and length, but now he is starting to put everything together on the field.
Lined up as a wide-nine rusher in this clip from Saturday’s contest against BYU, Johnson creates awesome momentum with his first two steps, then converts his speed to power to obliterate the tight end and flush quarterback Jaren Hall out of the pocket. Instead of ending up on the ground with the tight end, Johnson keeps his balance and chases down the QB.
Johnson, a sixth-year senior, eventually will be a 25-year-old NFL rookie and was once part of the same high school recruiting class as already-established NFL players like Najee Harris, Tua Tagovailoa and a few dozen others. Although he is older for a “breakthrough” player, Johnson has the size and athletic profile — along with the budding technique — to be a draft riser.
In a back-and-forth battle, Wilson was the X-factor for the Seminoles in a 35-31 win over Louisville. An Arizona State transfer, Wilson had one career touchdown catch prior to last Friday night and never had more than four catches or 70 yards in a single game. Against the Cardinals? Wilson finished with seven catches for 149 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
He had several impressive grabs worth sharing, but this is a play that won’t show up in his stat sheet:
Lined up at the top of the screen against maybe the best cornerback he will face all season, Kei’Trel Clark, Wilson simply overwhelms his defender. The big receiver quickly eats up the cushion and stems the corner before stacking inside with subtle footwork to neutralize the defender’s leverage. As a result, Clark is forced to dive tackle Wilson and Florida State takes the free 15 yards on a pass interference penalty.
Wilson does a great job on one-cut routes (slants, posts, etc.) where he can accelerate out of his cut to separate downfield or welcome early contact. He consistently gives his quarterback a large target and uses his length to steal the ball from defenders.
An issue with Wilson at Arizona State was focus drops, but it wasn’t a problem in this game. I’ll be eager to evaluate the redshirt sophomore the rest of the season to see if he can sustain this type of impact.
A safety prospect who doesn’t receive enough national attention, Robinson has the talent to be one of the first three seniors drafted at his position in April. The South Carolina transfer will be dinged throughout the process because of his lack of ideal size — he’s under 5-foot-11, 200 pounds and has sub-30-inch arms. However, he is a sudden athlete who cleanly transfers his weight to make plays all over the field.
Against Louisville on Friday night, Robinson finished with six tackles and did a nice job in coverage, including on this pass breakup:
Quarterback Malik Cunningham sees the corner blitz in the boundary and bets on his receiver to beat the safety in space, but Robinson doesn’t panic. He stays controlled with his lower-body twitch to maintain route spacing, read the throw and arrive with impeccable timing to disrupt the catch.
Cam Jones, LB, Indiana (6-1, 220)
The senior class of linebackers is underwhelming at the top, but Jones is an underrated prospect. The Memphis native finished with a game-best 13 tackles in the Hoosiers’ overtime win over Western Kentucky on Saturday, and he produced numerous highlight-worthy plays on film.
On this second-and-6 play in the fourth quarter, the Hilltoppers use read-option (with the tight end lined up in the backfield opposite the read side). Using his 4.6 speed, Jones reacts with the motioning tight end and mirrors him all the way down the line of scrimmage.
With a pair of receivers blocking downfield, the tight end has a chance at a big play if he can make the linebacker miss, but Jones is one of the more physical and sure tacklers in college football. He uses his vice grip hands not only to slam the tight end to the ground, but to force a fumble with the violent tackle.
Whether he is standing up ball carriers in the hole or chasing down plays by the numbers, Jones has the backfield vision, read-react athleticism and finishing skills that make him one of the better run-defending linebacker prospects in the 2023 draft class.
Eric Gray, RB, Oklahoma (5-10, 214)
After Gray flashed his impressive talent at Tennessee, I was excited to see him in Oklahoma’s offense following his transfer prior to the 2021 season. Although he served as Kennedy Brooks’ backup last season, Gray was my No. 3 senior running back this summer because of that talent and, so far, his play in 2022 has lived up to the ranking.
On Saturday, Gray had his most productive game in a Sooners’ uniform as Oklahoma stomped Nebraska. He finished with 11 rushes for 113 yards (10.3 yards per carry) and a pair of touchdowns. One of those TDs came on this 16-yard scamper, which showed his next-level abilities:
Gray uses just enough patience to allow the lead block to do his job and displays the lower-body quickness and coordination to squeeze through the hole. Once at the second level, he puts the safety in conflict by pushing upfield, then cuts back outside with burst to leave the defender in his dust.
Now the starter for the Sooners, Gray is averaging 7.7 yards per carry through three games and has shown the footwork and vision that should translate well to the pro level.
GO DEEPER
Scouting the 2023 NFL Draft running backs: Bijan Robinson paces a dynamic class
Although the back half of the Louisville defense had trouble slowing down Florida State, Abdullah put together a strong performance in the front seven that won’t go unnoticed by NFL scouts. He finished with eight tackles, six pressures, 2.0 tackles for loss, a half sack, two passes defended and one interception.
Abdullah was everywhere for the Cardinals on Friday night. Playing a stand-up edge rusher role, his first-step quickness allowed him to consistently win the corner and pressure the pocket. He also did well when dropping and playing in space.
On this play right before halftime, Abdullah does a great job to read and drive on the screen before the blockers can reach him. He breaks down and makes a strong open-field tackle for a six-yard loss. His interception came two plays later.
With his tweener size, Abdullah won’t be an easy projection for every scheme. But his ability to affect the game will appeal to NFL coaches and could get him into the mid-round discussion as a prospect.
(Top photo of Brock Bowers: Dale Zanine / USA Today)
A year ago at this time, Washington was 1-2 with losses to FCS Montana and Michigan in which the Huskies scored 17 combined points. On Saturday, the Huskies scored 39 points in a dominant win against a Michigan State team that was ranked No. 11 in the AP poll. And the game wasn’t nearly as close as the 39-28 final score. Washington had 503 total yards and averaged 9.9 yards per pass. With the win to move to 3-0, the Huskies have moved into the top 25 in this week’s edition of The Athletic 131.
Washington’s fall off a cliff under former head coach Jimmy Lake en route to a 4-8 record last season was stunning because it happened so quickly. This was a program that won 32 games from 2016 to 2018 under Chris Petersen. Recruiting had gone relatively well, and it’s one of the best-resourced programs in the West. But the offense had become anemic.
Enter Kalen DeBoer and Michael Penix Jr. DeBoer has won basically everywhere he’s been. He’s 82-9 as a head coach, including a 67-3 stretch at NAIA Sioux Falls from 2005 to 2009. He helped turn around Indiana and Fresno State as the offensive coordinator, then went back to Fresno State and produced a 9-3 record in his second season as head coach.
Penix was electric as Indiana’s quarterback when healthy, but he dealt with several injuries. He’s reunited with DeBoer in Seattle, and Washington football is fun again. Through three games, he’s completing 66 percent of his passes for 359.7 yards per game with 10 touchdowns and one interception.
Everyone wrote off the Pac-12 after Week 1, but we may need to reevaluate that. Washington is the biggest reason why.
Here is the latest edition of The Athletic 131.
The only change in this group is USC’s move up to No. 8 after a 45-17 win against Fresno State. The Trojans look like the best-case scenario under Lincoln Riley right now. The offense is electric. The defense has shown holes (81st in yards per play), but it’s fourth in the nation with 10 takeaways. The trip to Oregon State this week will be an interesting test.
Michigan is a dominant 3-0 but has played three of the worst teams in the country. A home game against Maryland this week will be the first time we can actually begin to evaluate the Wolverines.
The polls have come around to put Georgia at No. 1, and its Week 1 win against Oregon looks even better now after the Ducks’ dominant win against BYU.
11-25
Rank
Team
Record
Prev
11
3-0
13
12
3-0
25
13
2-1
21
14
3-0
20
15
2-1
15
16
2-1
16
17
2-1
18
18
2-1
11
19
2-1
19
20
3-0
49
21
3-0
22
22
2-1
26
23
2-1
24
24
3-0
27
25
3-0
29
Penn State’s 41-12 win at Auburn has quickly changed the view on what is possible for this team. Auburn may not be a good team, but the Nittany Lions were able to run for 245 yards against a good front. The aforementioned 41-20 Oregon win at BYU suddenly makes the Pac-12 look much better now to go with USC, Washington and Utah, which beat San Diego State 35-7.
Texas, Wake Forest and Ole Miss also move into the top 25. The Longhorns avoided an Alabama hangover and pulled away from UTSA in the second half, Wake Forest held off Liberty and Ole Miss pounded Georgia Tech 42-0.
The polls have Utah ahead of Florida and Baylor ahead of BYU, and the coaches poll has Michigan State ahead of Washington. Why? I have no idea. In these rankings, when two teams are close, the head-to-head winner gets the advantage, especially three weeks into the season.
I saw a lot of comments about Minnesota’s ranking last week. It’s barely moved in the rankings because it’s played two of the worst teams in the country and an FCS team. It’s the same reasoning with Michigan and with Ole Miss. It’s not a negative and not a positive. Sometimes you get jumped if someone else has a more impressive win. Minnesota was No. 39 in my preseason ranking and still sits there now. Beat Michigan State, and it’ll most likely be in the top 25.
North Carolina’s win against Appalachian State continues to look better, and the Mountaineers’ Hail Mary win against Troy coupled with Texas A&M’s win against Miami was a boost as well. Maryland’s 34-27 win against SMU was a solid performance.
Kansas and Syracuse! KU is in the top 35 after a 3-0 start with road wins against West Virginia and Houston. Syracuse is 3-0 with wins against Louisville and Purdue. It’s not hard to see a 5-0 Orange start going into the NC State game. Tulane makes the biggest jump this week, from No. 110 into the top 50 after a win against Kansas State to move to 3-0. Notre Dame’s close escape from Cal coupled with Marshall’s loss to Bowling Green drops both teams. Arizona’s 31-28 win against North Dakota State was impressive as an underdog, and the Wildcats are officially a pretty good team.
Several teams slipped into this group with losses — Purdue, Texas Tech, Houston, UTSA and Auburn — but there’s not much movement otherwise. Indiana barely escaped Western Kentucky and Rutgers barely escaped Temple, but both are 3-0. Wyoming’s 17-14 win against Air Force moved the Cowboys to 3-1, with the loss to Illinois.
Vanderbilt’s comeback win at Northern Illinois to move to 3-1 is a real sign of progress for the program. Rice’s 33-21 win against Louisiana was one of the most surprising results of the weekend. Eastern Michigan won at Arizona State, becoming the first MAC school to win a regular-season game against the Pac-12. Northwestern has followed up its Ireland win against Nebraska with losses to Duke and FCS Southern Illinois at home.
South Alabama let a win at UCLA slip away with a field goal as time expired, and Troy let App State win on a Hail Mary. Tough losses. San Diego State is now 1-2 with two blowout losses to Pac-12 teams. Very quickly, this doesn’t look like the Aztecs of old.
(Top photo of Michael Penix and Kalen DeBoer: Joe Nicholson / USA Today)
To say Penn State’s season opener at Purdue was a roller coaster of emotion would be an understatement. A game with seven lead changes that is decided in the final minute of the game is a heck of a way to start a brand new college football season. Penn State managed to come out on top of Purdue in a tilt-a-whirl 35-31 victory on Thursday night to get an early jump on the Week 1 schedule.
Now comes the fun part; evaluating the performance.
Let’s go through the postgame report card to evaluate Penn State’s season debut for the 2022 season.
Quarterback
Grade: B+
Ona night when your starting quarterback turns in four passing touchdowns and runs for one more and leads the drive of the game in the clutch, it is incredibly difficult to be too harsh with an evaluation. Was it a great game by Sean Clifford? Not at all. Clifford passed for 282 yards and four touchdowns, including a 67-yard pass to tight end Brenton Strange at the end of the first half to inflate the stats a bit, and he completed 20 of 37 pass attempts. He also had a bad overthrow of Mitchell Tinsley in the fourth quarter that was picked off and returned for a Purdue touchdown to take the lead in the fourth.
But you get credit for the toughness and guts in this situation. We can’t quite deliver an “A” here, but it’s darn close under the conditions.
Drew Allar played one series in place of Clifford in the third quarter. He completed two of his four pass attempts for 26 yards and showed off a solid arm. But he was clearly a freshman starting on the road in a tough spot. His time will come.
The Big Ten is in the process of finalizing its media rights deals, with sources telling The Athletic the league hopes to make an official announcement by early next week. In a stunning development, ESPN has pulled out of negotiations, sources with direct knowledge of the negotiations confirmed to The Athletic.
In addition to Fox, which had locked up Big Ten rights months ago, the conference is likely to partner with both CBS and NBC. Such deals, if finalized, could result in the following Saturday slate: a noon ET game on Fox, a 3:30 p.m. ET game on CBS and prime time on NBC. Multiple sources involved in the negotiations have reiterated over the past month that the Big Ten has prioritized those windows throughout the process.
ESPN officially pulled out of Big Ten negotiations after saying no to the conference’s final offer of a seven-year deal worth $380 million per year, a source told The Athletic on Tuesday. Sports Business Journal first reported the developments.
ESPN’s rejection of the Big Ten’s offer was for only 13 of the Big Ten’s “B”/“C” package of games; ESPN had also looked at a prime-time package. Fox has already landed the league’s “A” package of games, which it will carry in the noon window.
ESPN’s exclusive 10-year deal with the SEC, starting in 2024-25, is believed to be in the $300 million range. That deal includes both 3:30 pm ET and prime-time windows for the conference’s premier games, which differs from what the network was in play for with the Big Ten. Clearly, the worldwide leader did not value the Big Ten’s secondary package at a higher price for fewer years than its SEC deal, especially with the network already obligated to the ACC as well.
The news is undoubtedly historic. ESPN has carried Big Ten football and basketball games for the last 40 years.
ESPN has mid-afternoon and primetime windows for its upcoming SEC deal, in addition to deals with the ACC and, perhaps, future deals with the Pac-12 (post-2024) and Big 12 (post-25).
Nonetheless, this fall will mark the 40th and final year of ESPN broadcasting Big Ten football.
— Matt Fortuna (@Matt_Fortuna) August 9, 2022
The Big Ten is also likely to add some sort of streaming option, a source told The Athletic, though it is not yet clear how it will be structured and whether or not Amazon or Apple will be involved. Both companies have significantly increased their investment in live sports programming in the past year. Another streaming candidate under consideration is Peacock, which is already part of NBC’s offerings, a different source said. That would make sense if NBC lands a Big Ten package as it is now expected to do so.
CBS is expected to pay the Big Ten $350 million per year in its new deal, a source confirmed to The Athletic. NBC is also expected to pay around $350 million per year, according to multiple reports. Multiple outlets have reported that the Big Ten is seeking to eclipse $1 billion in rights fees per year in its new deal.
The Big Ten said in a statement Tuesday the “overall constructs of the new rights agreements have not been finalized.”
GO DEEPER
What we know about Big Ten rights negotiations
“The conference continues to have productive meetings with both linear and direct-to-consumer media partners,” the Big Ten said. “We are committed to delivering unparalleled resources and exposure opportunities for Big Ten Conference member institutions, athletic programs, student-athletes, coaches and fans. We are very thankful to the media companies who recognize the value of Big Ten programming and want to deliver it to our fans around the world in a forward-thinking manner.”
With ESPN no longer in the mix to broadcast Big Ten football, expect the network to get involved in either or both of the Pac-12 and Big 12 conferences, whose rights come up next. The Pac-12 already opened its exclusive negotiating window with ESPN early in the aftermath of USC and UCLA’s move to the Big Ten.
— Richard Deitsch and Matt Fortuna contributed reporting.
We’ve spent the past week dissecting 2022 NFL draft prospects’ measurements, timed speed and skill sets when playing against nothing but air as we digest what we saw at the scouting combine. But with all the talk of risers, fallers, burners and workout warriors, how did the combine really impact the Round 1 outlook for April? And what can the Seahawks do with their brand-new top-10 pick, acquired as part of the agreed-upon deal sending Russell Wilson to the Broncos. It seems like a good time to take another run through all 32 picks on deck for Day 1.
The combine isn’t everything in the pre-draft process, but it’s a piece of the puzzle. The workouts either validate a prior evaluation or make you go back to the tape for a second look. Two things were for sure as we all left Indianapolis after four days of on-field work, though: This draft class has a ton of speed and explosion, and teams that miss out on filling a need in the first round will have plenty of strong options on Day 2 and even Day 3.
So after a great week in Indy at the return of the combine, who is projected to be the No. 1 pick? Who will land the top prospects? Does Seattle moving into the top 10 change up quarterback landing spots? I projected an additional trade, too: Which team jumps at the chance to move up and get a QB late in the first round?
Remember, we still have team interviews and pro-day workouts looming, so projections are far from final. I’ll keep running through tape right up until April 28, as well, and teams are still working through their own boards. But for now, here is my current prediction of how the first round of the 2022 draft will play out. And for more on all 32 picks, check out our SportsCenter mock draft special at 5 p.m. ET Wednesday on ESPN2.
Note: Historical notes are via ESPN Stats & Information.
Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
I thought hard about NC State offensive tackle Ikem Ekwonu here even after the Jaguars put the franchise tag on Cam Robinson on Tuesday, but that move means Jacksonville will be paying Robinson $16.6 million in 2022. Would the Jags commit that kind of money to the position and then still draft a tackle when they have the chance to instead bring in the best prospect in the class? Hutchinson can be a franchise cornerstone on defense. He racked up 14 sacks and 66 pressures last season, his 6.73-second three-cone drill shows incredible short-area burst, and he is the most technically efficient pass-rusher in the entire class. A pairing of Josh Allen and Hutchinson would torment opposing quarterbacks.
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
No, the 4.59-second 40-yard dash doesn’t bother me. Hamilton plays fast on tape, and you don’t come across 6-foot-4, 220-pound safeties with his range, explosion (38-inch vertical jump) and ball skills (three interceptions and four passes defensed in seven 2021 games) very often. The Lions’ pass defense struggled mightily in 2021, giving up 5.9 yards per play (29th) and 26.9 points per game (28th). Opposing quarterbacks teed off on them with the third-best opponent QBR (53.4). Hamilton closes like a heat-seeking missile, and his playmaking would be welcomed in Detroit.
Defensive ends Travon Walker (Georgia) and Kayvon Thibodeaux (Oregon) got some consideration here, and it’s also worth mentioning that the Lions’ coaching staff worked with Liberty quarterback Malik Willis at the Senior Bowl. While I don’t see them considering a quarterback this early, it’s possible they try to trade back, pick up extra picks and draft him later in the first round — or even try to trade up from No. 32, their other Day 1 selection.
Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
Houston allowed 44 sacks last season (ninth most), and its 53.8% pass block win rate was 27th in the NFL. If the Texans want to truly evaluate Davis Mills’ long-term potential, they have to keep him upright — and defenders would have a real difficult time getting to him through the 6-foot-4, 310-pound Ekwonu. Laremy Tunsil has two years left on his contract, but Ekwonu is versatile and can play other positions along the line before eventually taking over the left tackle spot. He plays with power and is a pancake machine, but he also has the quicks to ride speed rushers past the pocket.
Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
With Morgan Moses headed toward free agency and Mekhi Becton having trouble staying on the field, the Jets could certainly stand to add to the offensive line here. I thought about an edge rusher or cornerback, but the value is better for Neal at No. 4. (The Jets can address one of those other positions with their second top-10 pick.) Quarterback Zach Wilson saw pressure on 32.5% of his rookie-season dropbacks (seventh most), and the Jets’ 60.5% pass block win rate was middle of the road in 2021. Even so, New York is probably one solid lineman away from a very good starting unit, with or without Moses in the fold. Neal has versatility, he is a dominant run-blocker, and he’s a powerful pass protector with a quick first step. He allowed just one sack in 621 pass-block snaps last season.
Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
The Giants generated just 34 sacks (tied for 22nd) last season, and while Walker didn’t pile on the QB hits at Georgia (six sacks and 29 pressures last season), he was asked to do a lot of different things in a Bulldogs’ front seven that presents three other likely first-rounders. The 272-pound Walker had a terrific workout in Indy, running a 4.51-second 40 and 6.89-second three-cone drill. Few players I’ve ever evaluated can generate the power he does from the ground up, and that was on display with a 35½-inch vertical and 10-foot-3 broad jump. Teamed up with Leonard Williams and Azeez Ojulari, Walker will only continue to develop while giving the Giants a dynamic edge rusher to spark the defense.
Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
The combine didn’t change the fact that No. 6 is too rich for a quarterback this year. But regardless of whether it’s Sam Darnold, Pitt’s Kenny Pickett, Liberty’s Malik Willis or someone else under center next season, the Panthers’ offensive line has to get better. Carolina’s 52 sacks allowed were the fifth most in the NFL last season, and its 50.1% pass block win rate was better than only three other teams in the league. Cross had an impressive combine workout, and despite playing the seventh-most pass-block snaps in the FBS last season (683), he allowed just one sack and six pressures.
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
Kenny Golladay led the Giants in receiving last season with just 521 yards. Evan Engram led the team in catches with all of 46, and he’s headed to free agency. The next two on the list were running backs. And Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney each struggled to stay healthy. You get the point. With the top three linemen in the class off the board already, new GM Joe Schoen and new coach Brian Daboll can get quarterback Daniel Jones help in another fashion. Wilson has elite body control, 4.38 speed and a big catch radius. New York can walk away happy on Day 1 with exciting new players on defense (Travon Walker) and offense (Wilson).
Drake London, WR, USC
Eight Falcons players caught at least 10 passes last season, but only two of them — tight end Kyle Pitts and running back Mike Davis — are expected to be in uniform for Atlanta in 2022, after receiver Calvin Ridley was suspended on Monday for betting on games. A team has used top-10 picks on pass-catchers in back-to-back drafts three times since 1967, but there might not be another team in the NFL more in need of a top-tier receiver right now. London plays outside and in the slot, threatens vertically and can make plays over the middle. He played in only eight games last season (right ankle fracture), but he had at least 130 receiving yards in six of them.
Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
Well the rebuild is officially on in Seattle after Tuesday’s agreement to send Russell Wilson to Denver. And because the Seahawks are left with Drew Lock — who was part of the return — as their current quarterback, you have to think they will take a very close look at this draft class’ signal-callers. Do they start over with Pitt’s Kenny Pickett? Do they draft Liberty’s Malik Willis and bet on his upside? Both options are possible at No. 9, but I think Seattle looks to free agency for a short-term complement to Lock and focuses in on Alabama’s Bryce Young or Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud in the 2023 draft.
Part of that reasoning is this year’s weaker QB class. The other part is Thibodeaux still being on the board. He has 4.58 speed, the ability to walk blockers back and a great arsenal of pass-rush moves at his disposal. I’ve mentioned that I still want to see a little more fire out of him on a down-to-down basis, and that’s still true. But there’s no doubt he has the talent to be a difference-maker on an NFL defense. And Seattle’s unit could use that: Its 34 sacks tied for No. 22 last season, while its 38.7% pass rush win rate ranked No. 20. Thibodeaux, who had seven sacks and 46 pressures last season, gets a new era of Seahawks football rolling.
play
1:59
Marcus Spears cannot contain his joy when discussing Russell Wilson and the possibilities ahead in Denver.
Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
We know this pick has to be on defense after the Jets went offensive tackle at No. 4 (and spent all of their high picks on offense last April), and Gardner still being on the board makes it an even easier decision — though Florida State edge rusher Jermaine Johnson II would make sense, too. Last season, Gardner gave up just 60 total yards, surrendered zero touchdowns and picked off three passes, whereas the Jets allowed 8.0 passing yards per attempt and managed just seven interceptions. Gardner ran a 4.41 in the 40-yard dash on Sunday, and he smothers receivers off the line. The Jets like their young duo of Bryce Hall and Brandin Echols, but he is too good to pass on.
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
Last Thursday at the combine began with concerns about Pickett’s 8½-inch hand size, which is worrisome for a quarterback who has struggled in bad weather games and with turnovers. But it ended with a great performance from him throwing the football during the on-field workouts. I was impressed with the way he put all of the morning’s chatter behind him and put on a show. I still have Liberty’s Malik Willis ranked higher, but Pickett is the most NFL-ready signal-caller in the class. Washington, which had the NFL’s 23rd-best QBR (38.2) last season, would be getting a quarterback with good touch, field vision and accuracy.
The door is still open for the Commanders to trade for Jimmy Garoppolo or even sign a free-agent quarterback. That would change things. But if they go into the draft still seeking a signal-caller, this is a tremendous outcome.
Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State
The Vikings have a tenacious pass-rush duo in Danielle Hunter and D.J. Wonnum, but Johnson can be a third impact player on their front. His 12 sacks and 45 pressures were both top-15 numbers in the country last season, and he’s a great value pick for Minnesota at No. 12. In Indianapolis, the 6-foot-5, 254-pounder ran a 4.58 in the 40-yard dash and impressed with a 10-foot-5 broad jump. New Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell watched a great pass rush help his former team, the Rams, to a Super Bowl. So he’d happily welcome another smooth-moving explosive end to the mix.
Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
Another in a long line of Georgia defenders who impressed in Indy, Wyatt locates the football super fast and then has 4.77 speed to close on it. That 40-yard dash time led all defensive tackles at the combine, and he was in the top five at the position in both the vertical (29 inches) and broad jump (9-foot-3). Malik Jackson is a free agent, leaving a hole in the middle of Cleveland’s defensive front, and Wyatt — one of the biggest risers in the class — could slide in next to Myles Garrett to both help get after the quarterback and stuff the run at the line of scrimmage.
And yes, receiver is a position to watch for Cleveland, but it might be slightly early for Ohio State’s Chris Olave or Arkansas’ Treylon Burks.
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
I was blown away by Penning’s combine workout. He ran a 4.89 in the 40 and tied for the fastest time among offensive linemen in the three-cone drill (7.25). With that mobility, 34¼-inch length and 6-foot-7, 325-pound size, Penning is tough to get around in pass protection.
But his real bread and butter is run blocking, which aligns well with Baltimore’s offense. He overpowers defenders at the point of attack and can move them off the ball. That’d open lanes for quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back J.K. Dobbins, who are both expected back to the Ravens’ offense after 2021 injuries. With Ronnie Stanley missing 26 regular-season games over the past two years and Alejandro Villanueva turning 34 in September, it’s time for Baltimore to restock the line with real maulers. That’s especially true after the Ravens allowed 57 sacks last season (second most).
Devin Lloyd, ILB, Utah
Ah, we’ve entered the Eagles’ portion of the draft, in which they’ll make three picks over the course of the next five. They don’t look at linebackers in Round 1 often — they’ve taken just one here over the past 40 years (Marcus Smith in 2014) — but Lloyd’s sideline-to-sideline range and versatility make him a perfect fit in the middle of the Philadelphia defense. He filled the stat sheet last season with impact numbers in all facets of the game: 96 tackles, 8.0 sacks, 20 tackles for loss, four interceptions and seven passes broken up.
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
April 6 is circled on the calendar of the scouts for every team that covets a first-round cornerback. It’s the LSU pro day, when we should finally see Stingley in action after he opted to sit out the combine workouts while rehabbing his left foot injury a bit longer. There’s not a more confusing evaluation in the class. Stingley is versatile, physical, long and fast. In fact, if I were forced to choose between Ahmad Gardner and him, and I was basing the decision on Gardner’s 2021 tape (which is excellent) and Stingley’s 2019 tape, I’d take the latter. That’s how good he was during his freshman campaign.
But 2020 brought uneven play, and 2021 was largely lost to injury. Failing to quiet concerns at the combine only heightened the apprehension around using an early pick on him. All that said, he has the traits to be shutdown corner in the NFL. Darius Slay and Stingley could be one of the top duos in the league.
Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
There isn’t much more to say about Davis’ combine workout. It was one of the most impressive showings I’ve ever seen at the event. Running a 4.78 in the 40-yard dash and jumping 10-foot-3 in the broad jump at 341 pounds seemingly defies physics. If he keeps his weight in the 340-pound range, Davis is going to be a problem for offensive coordinators in the NFL. Against the run, he’s a space-eater who plays with power. He sees double-teams regularly but still appears impossible to move off his spot.
That’s all good news for the Chargers, who gave up 4.6 yards per carry last season (tied for the fifth-worst rate in the NFL) and lose defensive tackles Linval Joseph and Justin Jones to free agency. Davis’ big-time combine showing cemented his top-20 status, but if he keeps up his conditioning and can get on the field more often in the pros, Los Angeles could have a steal at No. 17.
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
Quarterback is super tempting, especially with Liberty’s Malik Willis still sitting on the board. We know Taysom Hill isn’t the answer, but I do think Jameis Winston goes back to New Orleans in free agency and puts at least a short-term solve on the Saints’ signal-caller woes. But who is he throwing to? Michael Thomas hasn’t been able to stay healthy, and two of the team’s top three wide receivers from 2021 — Tre’Quan Smith and Deonte Harris — are free agents. Olave, meanwhile, is a silky smooth runner with 4.39 speed and great acceleration — and he scored at least once in nine of 11 games last season. Winston (or whoever ends up under center) would immediately have a reliable downfield target.
David Ojabo, DE, Michigan
I still think the Eagles stick with Jalen Hurts at quarterback — Pittsburgh, next on the board, is undoubtedly holding its breath here — so let’s instead address another potential issue. The Eagles’ 29 sacks last season were No. 31 in the league, Derek Barnett is a free agent, and age is starting to catch up to Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham. Ojabo has a quick first step and closes with explosion. That explosion was on display at the combine, where he ran a 4.55 in the 40 and had a solid 10-foot-2 broad jump. His production (11 sacks last season) would be welcomed in Philly. (As an aside, I considered Arkansas receiver Treylon Burks, too, but the Day 2 receiver pool is so deep that the Eagles can wait.)
Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
We saw the arm strength in Indianapolis. We know he’s terrific on second-reaction throws. And it’s pretty clear he has the most upside of the class’ quarterbacks. Is he ready to take over right away? That’s another discussion, and the Steelers might want to sign a Mitchell Trubisky or Teddy Bridgewater to avoid the necessity of throwing Willis out there in Week 1. But Pittsburgh needs a franchise quarterback, and Willis has arm talent, great mobility and outstanding field vision. If developed effectively, he can keep the Steelers — who already have a good defense and some offensive playmakers — relevant in the QB-loaded AFC North.
Nakobe Dean, ILB, Georgia
This guy is perfect for the Patriots. With Dont’a Hightower hitting free agency, there’s a spot open in the middle of that defense, too. New England’s passing defense was stout in the 2021, but its 4.5 yards allowed per run tied for the eighth worst in the league. Dean has an incredible motor, fighting through blocks and making tackles in space. He has range both against the run and in coverage, and he can even contribute as a pass-rusher. I absolutely love watching his tape. Dean could be Bill Belichick’s leader on defense, and his relentlessness and exceptional instincts will make him an instant-impact player.
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller have been terrific for Las Vegas inside the numbers, but quarterback Derek Carr covets a true outside target. That’s especially true now with Russell Wilson heading to Denver — the Raiders’ offense has to keep pace with Wilson, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert for six of their 17 games each season. Burks provides excellent ball skills, the ability to break tackles and 6-foot-2 size in the red zone. His combine performance didn’t wow many scouts, but the tape shows why he produced 1,104 receiving yards and 11 touchdown catches in 2021.
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
During their late-season collapse, the Cardinals struggled to contain opponents’ passing games. From Week 14 until the end of the regular season, only Houston allowed more passing yards per attempt than Arizona’s 8.2, and the Cards tied for last in the NFL with just one interception. Now Robert Alford is off to free agency, and Arizona could use Byron Murphy Jr. in his more traditional nickelback role. That means the cornerback corps are seeking reinforcements. McDuffie is smooth and stays with receivers so well. He can identify routes, turned in a 4.44 in the 40-yard dash at the combine and flashes the ability to make plays on the ball. And this would be the value pick of the night, because McDuffie isn’t expected to wait this long for his name to be called.
George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
Dallas needs to decide where it wants to play Micah Parsons. Does it want to keep him off the edge, where he excelled with 13 sacks last season? Or does it want to return him to his true position at linebacker and let him impact the game in even more ways — and potentially be even better than he was in his rookie year? Either way, the Cowboys could use more pass-rushing support with Randy Gregory and Dorance Armstrong going to free agency. Karlaftis has the ability to transition his quick take-off burst into power and bull rush opponents, and he’d be an immediate contributor for one of the league’s best defenses.
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
Scary. That’s the first word that comes to mind for an offense featuring Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and Williams. Sticking Williams’ burner speed with Allen’s rocket arm is a big-play recipe. Sure, he will need time to recover from an ACL tear, and yes, he’s still refining his route running, but this is a luxury pick for Buffalo. Had it not been for the injury, Williams would have probably been a top-10 pick. Instead, the Bills can land him at the back end of the first round and make one of the league’s highest-octane offenses that much more dynamic. And with Emmanuel Sanders and Isaiah McKenzie off to free agency, there will be targets to go around.
Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
Tennessee took 47 sacks (seventh most) last year, and center Ben Jones is a free agent. Linderbaum not only fills a need here, he also represents outstanding value. He is highly effective as a zone blocker, which would spring Derrick Henry up the middle, and he gets great leverage in pass protection, which would buy Ryan Tannehill time in the pocket. I love this fit — but the Titans will be lucky to get Linderbaum at this point in the draft.
Kenyon Green, G/C, Texas A&M
These aren’t the Buccaneers you remember from the Super Bowl two seasons ago. Tom Brady is gone, and much of the roster faces free agency. It’s still very unclear who will be the quarterback in 2022, but I don’t see Tampa Bay taking the draft route to fix it. It already has a developmental signal-caller in Kyle Trask, so why burn a Day 1 pick on another when you have so many other issues? One of those issues is the middle of the offensive line, where guard Ali Marpet just retired and guard Alex Cappa and center Ryan Jensen are primed for free agency. Green is versatile and can immediately step in.
Running back and tight end are two other positions to look at, but neither has a true first-rounder in the class. I love Colorado State tight end Trey McBride’s tape, and both Breece Hall (Iowa State) and Kenneth Walker III (Michigan State) can be impact running backs at the next level, but I’m waiting for Day 2 on all three of them.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are back! Great news for Green Bay. But now the Packers have to capitalize and go all in on this offense. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a free agent, and Rodgers could use another receiver he trusts. Dotson is undersized at 5-foot-11 and 178 pounds, but he has speed (4.43 in the 40-yard dash), suddenness (36 inches in the vertical jump) and great ball skills (91 catches in 2021). He could be a true possession receiver to complement Adams, who was franchise-tagged on Tuesday.
MOCK TRADE: Atlanta jumps for another first-round pick
With four picks left in Round 1, only two quarterbacks have been selected. That means teams could be eyeing a move to grab one and secure the fifth-year option as they develop him. The Falcons — who drafted receiver Drake London earlier — take the leap here, sending one of their second-rounders (No. 43), a third-rounder and a fifth-rounder to the Dolphins for the No. 29 slot. Miami, which originally acquired this pick from the 49ers as part of last year’s trade involving San Francisco’s eventual selection of Trey Lance, can still find offensive line help early in the second round. Look for the Dolphins to consider Central Michigan’s Bernhard Raimann or Washington State’s Abraham Lucas on Day 2. As for Atlanta …
Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
Quarterback Matt Ryan has two years left on his deal, but the Falcons could get out of his contract with a much lighter dead-cap hit next offseason ($15.6 million). In the meantime, why not draft a quarterback with upside and let him learn from Ryan for a full season? Corral didn’t workout at the combine as he recovers from an ankle injury sustained in Ole Miss’ bowl game, but he brings a quick release, a good arm and plenty of mobility to the table. Atlanta’s passing game needs a total revamp, and this pick could be a home run if Corral takes the next step under Ryan’s tutelage.
Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
Kansas City allowed 5.9 yards per play in 2021 (30th) and 7.3 yards per pass attempt (24th), and safety Tyrann Mathieu is a free agent. Pass rush, wide receiver and offensive line are all units that could use another contributor, but this one just made too much sense. Hill is a fast riser after a great combine showing (4.38-second 40-yard dash), and he’s a rangy defensive back with versatility. He has the free safety traits to match slot receivers in man coverage and the physicality to support the run like a strong safety. Hill would help contain the vertical passing games of division-mates Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson.
Zion Johnson, G/C, Boston College
You won’t find many mock drafts handing the Bengals someone other than an offensive lineman. It’s a glaring problem that led to 74 sacks allowed in 2021 between the regular season and playoffs, and their 48.8% pass block win rate was the NFL’s third worst. That’s disaster waiting to happen when you have one of the game’s brightest young passers in Joe Burrow playing behind that line.
Central Michigan’s Bernhard Raimann is one option, but I love Johnson’s versatility and smoothness in pass pro. He posted a 32-inch vertical jump, 32 reps on the bench press and 7.38 seconds in the three-cone drill — all top-four results among the offensive linemen. Riley Reiff and Quinton Spain are off to free agency, and Johnson is putting in work at center, meaning he could play any of the interior positions for Cincinnati.
Boye Mafe, OLB, Minnesota
Let’s keep chipping away on defense, after giving Detroit safety Kyle Hamilton at No. 2, and cap off Day 1 with yet another combine standout. We expected a big-time workout from Mafe, and he didn’t disappoint. He ran a 4.53 in the 40 and sprung 10-foot-5 in the broad jump at 261 pounds. Mafe’s game is raw and needs development, but he has one of the fastest takeoffs I’ve seen on tape in this class. The arrow is pointing way up on him, and the Lions are searching for a consistent pass-rush presence, especially now that Charles Harris is off to free agency. Detroit’s 30 sacks were No. 30 in the NFL last season. Penn State’s Arnold Ebiketie could be in play here, too.
And as mentioned earlier, the Lions could certainly either trade up for a quarterback or even draft one here. UNC’s Sam Howell and Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder are both still out there.
My first mock for the 2022 NFL draft was all the way back in mid-January, before we knew the Bengals and Rams would shake up the first-round order and make it all the way to Super Bowl LVI. It was also before the Senior Bowl, where a few prospects dominated and impressed scouts.
Time for mock draft No. 2 for picks 1-32, where I project who each team will select based on a combination of my rankings — I have a new Big Board with updates at every position — pre-free-agency needs and what I’m hearing from execs, scouts and coaches in the league. Free agency kicks off in two weeks, which could shake up how we see the top of the board, so keep that in mind as you scan each selection. We’re still waiting for a few potential quarterback moves, too.
We’ll have a big NFL combine preview later this week, and a few top prospects already have said they won’t be participating in the on-field workouts. The things that happen off the field at the combine are just as important, though, as teams can interview prospects and get to know them.
The order for the first round is set, but we’re still waiting for the league to confirm all of the compensatory picks for the rest of the draft. Check out our one-hour SportsCenter Special on ESPN2 and ESPN+ Tuesday at 5 p.m. ET to see me explain each pick — and see my pal Todd McShay question them. Let’s start with the Jags at No. 1, and I’m also going to project two trades in the top 20:
More NFL draft coverage: Rankings | McShay’s mock 2.0 First Draft podcast | Latest news
Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
Offensive tackle or edge rusher here? I don’t think the Jaguars are set either way. Realistically, this is down to four prospects: Ekwonu, Evan Neal, Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux. New coach Doug Pederson and the Jags will get an opportunity to meet with each of them at the combine. They’ll get a front seat to all four on-field workouts, of course, but what goes on behind the scenes matters just as much.
Ultimately, I lean toward Jacksonville getting protection for quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who struggled as a rookie. This could go the other way if the organization brings back Cam Robinson in free agency, but Ekwonu — who is a hot name among NFL teams — would be an immediate upgrade. If the Jags can protect Lawrence with Ekwonu on the left side and Walker Little on the right, they can begin to turn around the offense. As McShay mentioned in his latest mock, 2013 was the last time an offensive tackle went No. 1 overall (Eric Fisher to the Chiefs).
Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
The Lions are in a great spot here, with a clear need at edge rusher and one of the best two prospects guaranteed to be available. Hutchinson is a local kid who just finished second in the voting for the Heisman Trophy, racking up 14 sacks and 19 total tackles for loss and dominating Big Ten offensive tackles. This is not just a sentimental pick because he went to Michigan; Hutchinson is an elite defender.
Detroit’s defense is still a few pieces away from being average — there are big questions in the secondary, too — but this should be a rush-to-the-podium selection.
Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
This is an extremely tough pick to project before free agency, because the Texans have a barren roster with needs at most every position. And can you believe they have had only one first-round choice in the four drafts before this one? They have a long way to go to compete again in the AFC South.
If Houston really is tearing down its roster even further, that could mean trading a few key veterans, such as tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Brandin Cooks, and trying to add more picks. That opens a hole on the left side for Neal, a physical blocker with great feet. I don’t think the Texans could go wrong with high-upside pass-rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, either, but they have to hit on the top guy on their board here.
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
I’m going to stick with Hamilton to the Jets, who were awful in the secondary in 2021 and could lose Marcus Maye in free agency. Because I know you’re thinking it, no, this is not too high to take a safety. Not a safety like Hamilton, who can make a massive impact against the run and pass. He had eight career interceptions at Notre Dame and could play multiple spots along the defense at the next level. Hamilton is a versatile playmaker who will make a defense better on Day 1. The Jets still have another first-round pick to try to improve their offense.
Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
If the draft plays out like this and both of the top offensive tackles are off the board before the Giants pick, taking a defender makes the most sense. And if Thibodeaux is available, he’d be a perfect fit for a New York defense that needs to pair a true edge rusher with rookie Azeez Ojulari, who led the team with eight sacks last season. Thibodeaux has to improve his all-around game, but he has outstanding physical tools as a pass-rusher. He had seven sacks last season and put up the second-best pressure rate in the country (17.8%). If he comes close to his ceiling, he’ll make multiple All-Pro teams.
The Giants have some nice pieces to build around for new general manager Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll, but they’re not going to be able to acquire an edge rusher like Thibodeaux anywhere other than the draft. We could look back at this pick in five years and consider it a steal.
Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
This is a tricky pick, especially since we don’t know yet whether the Panthers are going to acquire a veteran quarterback via trade or through free agency. Ultimately, this is a little too high for a quarterback based on my rankings because I don’t see any of them in this class as top-10 selections. So while I thought about a wide receiver to help Carolina’s offense — the 6-foot-5 Drake London could help any quarterback — let’s fill a need with an immediate starter.
Cross allowed just one sack in 2021, leveling up for a pass-happy Mississippi State offense that shows no mercy for linemen. He is a stellar pass-blocker as a left tackle.
Devin Lloyd, ILB, Utah
With the Giants’ second top-10 pick, I’m going all-in on improving the front seven of the defense. Lloyd is a middle linebacker, yes, but he does so much more. He had 111 total tackles, eight sacks, 20 tackles for loss, four interceptions and a forced fumble last season. He had 16.5 total sacks over the past three seasons. Lloyd (and No. 5 pick Kayvon Thibodeaux) can add some pass-rush upside to a team that desperately needs it. If New York does take Lloyd here, that probably means Blake Martinez, who tore his ACL in September, will be a salary-cap casualty.
The Giants are going to have to address their offensive line at some point this offseason, and I also thought about center Tyler Linderbaum here.
Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
I’m going to stick with the same position for the Falcons at No. 8 but switch the prospect. Gardner is rising since the second half of the season and has a great shot at being the top corner in April’s draft. He allowed just eight catches for 60 yards in 13 games.
Why Gardner over Derek Stingley Jr.? NFL scouts just haven’t seen Stingley playing to his 2019 level over the past two seasons. He has a high ceiling, but he played in just three games in 2021 and was so-so in 2020. Stingley won’t work out at the combine, but he will have a chance to rise again if he puts up excellent testing numbers at his pro day. Gardner is a safer prospect at this point. This also is a spot to watch for an edge rusher, and the Falcons have an extra second-round pick because of the Julio Jones trade with Tennessee.
Projected trade: Browns move up to get the top wideout
With the Jets lurking at No. 10, I could see the Browns making sure they get the best receiver in this class. In this scenario, the Browns could give up a third-round pick to move four spots, which should be enough to get a deal done.
From Denver’s perspective, this adds a valuable top-100 pick and still keeps it in the discussion for the best edge rushers in the class.
Drake London, WR, USC
The Browns have a void at wide receiver and have to add better players around Baker Mayfield. He has shown that he can be an above-average NFL quarterback when he has help around him, and Cleveland should prioritize a top-tier pass-catcher in this draft. The team had just one receiver with more than 35 catches last season (Jarvis Landry with 52).
London is a 6-foot-5 aerial threat with the traits to be an end zone weapon. He averaged 11 catches and 136 yards per game last season, before he broke his ankle in late October. He would make Mayfield better.
Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
This could be the sweet spot in the draft for Linderbaum, one of the best center prospects of the past decade. He’s a plug-and-play lineman who can do everything at a high level. The Jets have to get better in front of and around quarterback Zach Wilson, who didn’t have many bright spots as a rookie. Linderbaum is a step in that direction, though if wideout Drake London makes it to No. 10, he’d be a great fit.
I wouldn’t be shocked if New York added another defender here, too, particularly one of the edge rushers. With four picks in the top 38, general manager Joe Douglas should put multiple selections toward a D that had trouble at every level in 2021.
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
Washington’s defense took a step back in 2021, but it has a lot of talent invested on that side of the ball. That’s why I see the Commanders as the team most likely to target a quarterback in Round 1. Taylor Heinicke hasn’t shown that he can be a consistent, NFL-level starter; Pickett could be an upgrade.
This is still a little high for a quarterback based on my Big Board — I have Pickett and Malik Willis at Nos. 19 and 20, respectively — but the 24-year-old Pickett is ready to play in the NFL right now. I don’t think he’ll have to have the developmental time that Willis will need. Ron Rivera’s team could compete in the NFC East with competent quarterback play and Pickett could give them a chance. He’s going to be under the microscope at the combine, as we still don’t have an official hand size for him. He’s expected to have below 9-inch hands, which has been one of the benchmarks for quarterbacks. I’m curious to hear how he does in interviews with teams as well.
play
1:52
Todd McShay breaks down the best options at quarterback for the Commanders if they choose to draft one.
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
New general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and coach Kevin O’Connell inherit an aging defense from a front office that has had some notable first-round misses at cornerback in recent years, but that shouldn’t keep them from taking another swing. This is the position Minnesota needs most, and Stingley could be worth it.
Stingley needs to show NFL teams that he can get back to the way he played in 2019, when had six picks as a true freshman on LSU’s national title team. He won’t be working out at the combine, which means his off-field work there — interviews with teams — will be crucial.
Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State
Johnson is one of the biggest risers of the past month; he dominated at the Senior Bowl, showing that his 12 sacks after transferring from Georgia weren’t a fluke. He destroyed offensive tackles in Mobile, Alabama. With Von Miller gone, this is a spot the Broncos can improve upon, especially with Bradley Chubb’s injury issues. They finished the season ranked last in the league in pass rush win rate. Johnson has a big frame (6-foot-4, 260 pounds) and can play with his hand in the dirt or on his feet in a 3-4 defense. I’m a fan.
Denver is a team to watch for the quarterbacks, but I still think it’s more likely that it adds one before the draft, either in free agency or via trade.
Projected trade: Saints make a jump for a pass-catcher
How about another trade here? We know the Saints are aggressive in the draft, as they once traded a future first-rounder to move up for edge rusher Marcus Davenport. This wouldn’t cost near that; it’d likely take a third-round pick to move up four spots, and New Orleans only has a compensatory selection in Round 3. The need at receiver is clear, however.
Baltimore loves to acquire extra picks and could stick to its board by moving down a few spots.
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
There are many questions around the post-Sean Payton era for the Saints, but it’s clear that the team has to add more weapons around whomever plays quarterback in 2022. Michael Thomas should be back after missing all of last season, and he could use a wideout to take some pressure off him. Wilson has the versatility to play in the slot or outside, and he can pile on yards after the catch. He had 113 catches and 18 touchdowns for the Buckeyes over the past two seasons.
If the Saints keep the No. 18 pick, offensive tackle could be in play, especially if Trevor Penning is available. Quarterback Malik Willis could be an option, too, but the Saints are more ready to try to win in 2022, and I think Willis needs a little more seasoning before he’s thrown into the fire in the NFL.
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
Let’s fill some holes for Philadelphia, which has three first-round picks and problems at a few spots on its roster. The Eagles made a run to the playoffs last season, winning six of their final eight games, but their defense was exposed along the way. They allowed quarterbacks to complete a whopping 69.4% of their passes, which ranked last in the league.
McDuffie, who didn’t allow a single touchdown in coverage over the past two seasons, could play the spot opposite Darius Slay. He also has the ability to play out of the slot.
David Ojabo, OLB, Michigan
The Eagles ranked 31st in the league with 29 sacks last season; they have to get better there. Getting pressure on the quarterback is a way to improve the entire defense. Ojabo is a pure pass-rusher who is still developing as a run defender. He had had 11 sacks and five forced fumbles, wreaking havoc opposite potential No. 1 pick Aidan Hutchinson. I’d feel better about taking Ojabo in the middle of Round 1 vs. the top 10 because he can get swallowed up in the run game, but his edge-rush upside is undeniable.
Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
As I mentioned in my debut mock draft, the Chargers still haven’t fixed their yearslong issue defending the run, as they ranked 28th in the league in yards per carry (4.8). If you’re looking at a void to fill for a team that is right on the edge of playoff contention, this is a way to do it. The 280-pound Walker could be an ideal fit for L.A.’s 3-4 defense because he’s a good run defender who also has some pass-rush ability. He’s not a two-down player like his former Georgia teammate Jordan Davis; I think this is too high to take a nose tackle with a low ceiling for sacks. Walker had six for the national champs in 2021.
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
This should be offensive line all the way. Left tackle Ronnie Stanley has played in just seven games over the past two seasons because of an ankle injury, and there’s no guarantee he is going to get back to his 2019 level. Penning played left tackle for the Panthers, but he could slide over to the right side if Stanley returns healthy. Penning had a great Senior Bowl; he is a road grader in the run game who can plow over defenders. We know the Ravens want to run the ball, so Penning fits their style of play. Center Tyler Linderbaum also could be an option, if he is on the board.
And if Baltimore goes defense, instead, keep an eye on end Travon Walker, a versatile and disruptive player.
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
One more Round 1 selection for the Eagles, who I gave defenders at Nos. 15 and 16. This could be a spot to take another receiver, their third straight draft to take one in the first round. Jalen Reagor, the No. 21 pick in 2020, has underwhelmed — I thought it was a reach at the time — while DeVonta Smith, the No. 10 choice last year, had a good but not great rookie season.
I would get Jalen Hurts a different kind of receiver in Burks, who is big and physical (6-foot-3, 225 pounds) and could complement Smith’s speed. Burks had 1,104 yards and 11 touchdowns for the Razorbacks last season. I’m really curious to see his athletic testing numbers at the combine; it’s not out of the question that he rises even farther up the board.
Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
Here’s a nice landing spot for Willis, whom I’ve mentioned will need some time to adjust to the speed of the NFL. He didn’t have a ton of talent around him at Liberty and he was sacked an FBS-high 51 times last season. He shouldn’t be asked to play in Week 1 in September. If he goes to Pittsburgh, he’ll compete with Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins (and potentially another short-term veteran) and won’t be pressured to play immediately, though the Steelers aren’t going to rebuild in the post-Ben Roethlisberger era.
Willis is the most talented quarterback in this class, in my opinion, but he can be erratic with his accuracy. He has all of the tools to be successful, but he’ll need to be coached hard. If the Steelers don’t go with a signal-caller here, keep an eye out for offensive line.
play
1:38
Ryan Clark says the Steelers are not a Super Bowl contender if Mason Rudolph is the starting quarterback in 2022.
Arnold Ebiketie, DE, Penn State
The Patriots got 12.5 sacks from free-agent pickup Matthew Judon last season, while Kyle Van Noy was second on the team with five. No other player had more than three. This front seven has to add an edge rusher, especially as it seems Bill Belichick & Co. don’t trust Chase Winovich, who played only 111 snaps last season, to take on a bigger role.
Ebiketie had 19 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks last season, his first at Penn State after transferring from Temple. At 6-foot-3, 260 pounds, he could put on a few more pounds and add the position versatility that New England loves, shifting all along the defensive line. He has extremely long arms and can create leverage on his pass-rush moves. The Patriots also need to invest again at wide receiver, so I thought about one with this pick.
Nakobe Dean, ILB, Georgia
The Raiders have a new regime under coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler, and they have a clear void in the middle of their defense. If Dean is still available at No. 22, this is a no-brainer. His coaches at Georgia rave about his leadership skills and he’s a dominant off-ball linebacker on the field, too. He stuffed the stat sheet with 72 tackles, six sacks, two forced fumbles and two picks last season.
Cornerback and wide receiver are two other positions I considered for Las Vegas, which also has questions surrounding the future of quarterback Derek Carr, whose contract is up after the 2022 season.
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
Sure, Arizona spent a second-round pick on Rondale Moore a year ago, but he’s more of a slot receiver who could be used in the run game, too. He averaged a staggeringly low 8.1 yards per catch on his 54 receptions, producing just 18 first downs. Think of Olave as more of a replacement for A.J. Green, who is a free agent. Olave can line up outside and run crisp routes to beat cornerbacks. He had 35 career touchdowns for the Buckeyes. This would be a selection to try to make Kyler Murray a little happier heading into an important season.
George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
As I mentioned in January when going through my first mock draft for this class, the Cowboys’ big list of free agents makes this a tough pick to project before April. They could have needs at all three levels of the defense depending on how free agency shakes out.
For now, let’s get them a defensive end who would allow Micah Parsons to play more snaps at linebacker. Karlaftis didn’t have eye-popping stats in 2021, but he is a good run defender who could get more sacks in the NFL than he had in college. He had just 4.5 last season. He’s tough and physical, though he doesn’t have the physical tools of a few other edge rushers in this class. Karlaftis’ athletic testing numbers at the combine will be closely watched.
Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
Here’s the third member of Georgia’s defense in my first-round mock, and that doesn’t even include massive nose tackle Jordan Davis, who has a chance to go in Round 1 to a team that runs a 3-4 D. Wyatt is a hulking 310-pound tackle who really impressed NFL teams at the Senior Bowl last month. He could play next to Ed Oliver and eat up blockers, allowing the linebackers more space to get to the ball. Wyatt, my new top-ranked defensive tackle, went a little under the radar in college because of the talent around him, but he’s a really promising prospect.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Julio Jones is 33, has played just 19 games over the past two seasons and has only four touchdowns over that span. Can the Titans really rely on him to be a great wideout next to A.J. Brown, who has had injury issues himself? I think they need to add an extra dimension for quarterback Ryan Tannehill, and Dotson has the versatility to align out of multiple spots. He had 91 catches for 1,182 yards and 12 touchdowns last season, and he could rack up yards after the catch to help Tannehill.
Another wideout to keep an eye on late in Round 1: Calvin Austin III, a 5-foot-9, 165-pound dynamo who could run a sub-4.4-second 40-yard dash this week. He is one of the most underrated prospects in this draft, and I don’t think it’s that off the wall to put him to Tennessee here. He had 74 catches for 1,149 yards and eight scores at Memphis last season.
Zion Johnson, G/C, Boston College
The Bucs entered the offseason with several free-agent decisions to make, and they just added another hole with the retirement of underrated guard Ali Marpet. They could go several ways here, from offensive line to defensive line to corner. Johnson would be a pick to start at either guard or center, where Ryan Jensen is among the players set to hit the open market in a couple of weeks.
Johnson played both guard and tackle for the Eagles, but he had a dominant season at guard in 2021, where he didn’t allow a single quarterback pressure, much less a sack. He took some snaps at center at the Senior Bowl and showed that he could make the transition.
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
The last time the Packers took a wide receiver in Round 1? It was Javon Walker all the way back in 2002. So why not another wideout 20 years later, one who could make Aaron Rodgers’ life easier (assuming he stays). Williams was my top-ranked receiver before he tore his ACL in the national title game in January, which means he might not be ready to play until late in the 2022 season. For a team expected to play well into January, though, he could be a great addition. Williams averaged 19.9 yards on his 79 catches last season and had 15 touchdowns. He’s super explosive. I love this fit both for team and player.
Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan
Miami has a tackle problem. Austin Jackson, the No. 18 overall pick two years ago, had to move to guard because he couldn’t cut it outside. Liam Eichenberg, a second-round pick in 2021, was just OK as a rookie. The offensive line around Tua Tagovailoa just wasn’t good enough last season.
Raimann is a 6-foot-6, 305-pound former tight end who had a great 2021 season. He can move his feet in pass protection and anchor in the run game. He had some trouble at times with better prospects at the Senior Bowl, but I believe in his upside. He could play left or right tackle for Miami.
Boye Mafe, OLB, Minnesota
I included Mafe (and Bernhard Raimann) on my list of potential first-round sleepers back in October, and he just keeps rising. He finished the season in a sack slump (one in his final five games), but he was phenomenal at the Senior Bowl, showing some power and finesse as an edge rusher. At 6-foot-3, 255 pounds, he can use his get-off speed to fly by tackles. Mafe has versatility as well, and he moved up to No. 3 in my outside linebacker rankings.
For the Chiefs, this is about getting younger and improving a pass rush that had only 31 sacks last season (29th in the league).
Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington
Why no offensive linemen here? Because the Bengals shouldn’t force it to try to fill their biggest need. In this scenario, I didn’t have another lineman with a Round 1 grade; Daniel Faalele (Minnesota) and Tyler Smith (Tulsa) are more likely to go in the first 15 picks in the second round. Cincinnati, which has salary-cap space, could also address the position in free agency.
Instead I went with a corner in Gordon who has the length and physical traits to be a No. 1 guy in the NFL. He had two interceptions last season and showed some high-end coverage traits.
Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
Let’s end this mock draft with another quarterback, because I’m not convinced Jared Goff will be Detroit’s long-term signal-caller. Corral could be, though, and in this scenario he could get time to learn behind Goff in 2022, when the Lions almost certainly won’t be contending in the NFC North. Yes, they have several needs, but if they can get a quarterback with a fifth-year option, they could continue the positive momentum of their rebuild.
Corral took a step forward in 2021, throwing 20 touchdown passes and just five picks. He’s a dual-threat quarterback who can beat teams with his legs, but he ran an RPO-centric offense at Ole Miss, and he’s going to need to learn how to adapt in the NFL. He can spin the football, though. Corral won’t work out for NFL teams at the combine, which means all eyes will be on his pro day in late March.
One round of the NFL playoffs in the books, just 10 days away from Senior Bowl practices and the underclassmen declaration day behind us … let’s roll out my first mock draft for the 2022 class.
You know the routine by now: 1-32 early projections for the first round of the 2022 NFL draft, starting with the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 1 — again. I didn’t project any trades in this Round 1 mock; let’s wait until we get closer to free agency to determine what teams really need. This is just an exercise to show everyone what I’m thinking right now, based on my prospect rankings and what I’m hearing from execs, scouts and coaches in the league, who are doing a lot of prep to get ready for the NFL combine in March.
The good thing about the 2022 cycle is that there will be a combine this year. That was a crucial part of the pre-draft process that was lost to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. And as for the Senior Bowl, which begins practices on Feb. 1, it should be a doozy. Six of the top seven quarterbacks in the class are expected to compete — Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder, Sam Howell, Carson Strong and Bailey Zappe — along with several other potential top-50 picks.
OK, let’s start with the Jags at No. 1. The draft order for picks 1-24 is set, and we’re using ESPN’s Football Power Index to project picks 25-32, so don’t yell at me if you don’t like which team is at No. 32. Check out one-hour SportsCenter Special on Wednesday at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+ to see Todd McShay and me talk through every pick.
More NFL draft coverage: Rankings | Meet the QB class First Draft podcast | Latest news
Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
At this time last year, the Jags were starting a rebuild under a new coach and … they’re back at the same spot. Urban Meyer didn’t even last a full season. I wrote last January that this wasn’t going to be a quick fix, and they’re not much closer to contending, hence back-to-back No. 1 picks. I do think they have their quarterback, even though Trevor Lawrence had a mostly abysmal rookie season.
So if the Jaguars get first dibs on any prospect in this draft, I’d go with Hutchinson; I have him ranked slightly ahead of Oregon edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux. Hutchinson, who finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting, is a dominant and consistent pass-rusher who can put up double-digit sacks as a rookie. He’s a safe No. 1 pick. They can play him on the other side of Josh Allen, who is a really nice player. Now, there could be some talk about the Jags taking a left tackle here, but I’m not buying that over the value of having a truly great edge rusher. Yes, left tackle might be more of a “need,” but they should take the best prospect, not fill the biggest need.
Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
The Lions finished with the same number of wins (three) as the Jaguars, but doesn’t it feel as if they’re in a much better position? Well, maybe not so fast. The defense allowed the second-most points in the league (27.5 per game), and the offense had major consistency issues, which led to coordinator Anthony Lynn’s firing. This is a roster that could use talent upgrades at several positions.
That’s why it’s a no-brainer to take Thibodeaux or Hutchinson here, whoever is still on the board. Thibodeaux, who was a No. 1 overall high school recruit, has elite upside. His get-off at the snap is lightning-quick, and though he’s still developing secondary pass-rush moves, he doesn’t need them when he can blow by offensive tackles before they’re out of their stance. Thibodeaux had half as many sacks (seven) as Hutchinson this season, but he had the second-best pressure rate in the country (17.8%). Charles Harris, who led Detroit with 7.5 sacks this season, is a free agent, which makes this even more of a problem position.
Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
Houston just fired coach David Culley after one season, and studying the roster he had and the numbers they put up on both sides of the ball, it’s a wonder how this team won four games. Here are five stats that caught my eye:
27th in total sacks (32)
30th in offensive points per game (15.5)
31st in yards per play allowed (5.9)
32nd in first downs per game (15.6)
32nd in rushing yards per game (83.9)
The bright spot, of course, was the improvement of rookie third-round pick Davis Mills, who played his way into potentially being the opening-day starting quarterback in 2022, but the Texans have holes all over their roster. I think they’d take Aidan Hutchinson or Kayvon Thibodeaux here if either fell out of the top two, but Neal could be a 15-year starter at tackle or guard; he played both at Alabama before settling in at left tackle. Houston has Laremy Tunsil at that spot, but a thumb injury forced him out of 12 games this season. General manager Nick Caserio & Co. could take Neal and figure out his best position later, not unlike what the Lions did with Penei Sewell in the 2021 draft.
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
The Jets had big defensive issues in Robert Saleh’s first season as coach, from the front seven to the secondary. They didn’t get after quarterbacks, and they couldn’t cover pass-catchers, which is a recipe for another top-five draft pick. Hamilton would fill a void at safety, especially if Marcus Maye leaves in free agency. Six-foot-4, 220-pound Hamilton has rare traits for his size, and he can play in the box or as a center fielder (he had eight career interceptions for the Fighting Irish). He was one of the most versatile defenders in college football for the past three seasons. Hamilton played in only seven games in 2021 because of a knee injury, but I’m told he’ll be ready to work out at the NFL combine in March. The Jets also pick at No. 10, and they could get help on offense there.
Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
There has been a lot of recent buzz around Ekwonu, whose stock is rising. He dominated at left tackle for the Wolfpack this season after playing some guard earlier in his career. Based on the 2021 tape, there’s not much separating Ekwonu from Evan Neal, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Ekwonu was the top tackle off the board in April. He has All-Pro potential as a run-blocker and as a pass-blocker.
For the Giants — who haven’t yet replaced coach Joe Judge or general manager Dave Gettleman — this would be top-five tackles in two of the past three drafts, but even though Andrew Thomas played better this season, the right tackle spot is far from settled. They just have to get better up front, and taking Ekwonu is a step toward that. Like the Jets, they have two top-10 picks, and they could go offense with the No. 7 selection.
Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
This is an easy call based on Carolina’s biggest weakness: It has to get a better left tackle. The Panthers ranked last in the league in yards per play (4.6) and 28th in sacks allowed (52). They went into the season with journeyman Cameron Erving manning the spot and finished with Dennis Daley filling in. Taylor Moton is a really solid right tackle, but they can upgrade the left side with this pick.
Cross took a big leap in 2021, allowing just a single sack while playing in a pass-happy Mike Leach offense. He can be a big-time NFL left tackle. This isn’t a reach pick. The Panthers need to hit here because they don’t have second- or third-round picks due to trades for quarterback Sam Darnold and cornerback CJ Henderson. This is a massive draft for coach Matt Rhule, who fired his offensive coordinator and might have to make the playoffs in 2022 to keep his job.
David Ojabo, OLB, Michigan
It’s always tough to project for teams that haven’t hired new general managers, so here’s my thinking for this pick, which comes from the Bears in the Justin Fields trade up last year: The Giants have some solid options on defense, but it’s fair to say they underperformed as a unit in 2021. The best way to get better as a whole? Pressure the quarterback, which helps every level of the defense. Rookie second-round pick Azeez Ojulari had a nice season, leading the team with eight sacks, but they don’t have another top-tier edge rusher on the other side.
Ojabo can help the pass rush immediately. He had an incredibly impressive season, racking up 11 sacks and five forced fumbles while playing opposite my projected No. 1 pick, Aidan Hutchinson. He doesn’t have Hutchinson’s all-around game — he has to get better against the run — but as a pure pass-rusher, he has a very high ceiling. With these two top-seven selections, New York can get high-end starters on both sides of the ball.
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
This was one of the toughest calls of the entire mock. I thought hard about a quarterback. My buddy Chris Mortensen, though, says the Falcons are committed to Matt Ryan for 2022, which means this might be too high to take a QB who’s not going to play right away. This is not a class full of surefire starting QBs. If David Ojabo was still on the board, I probably would have gone with him because the Falcons finished last in the league in sacks (18) this season. But there’s a little bit of a drop-off in the edge-rush tiers, and my next guy doesn’t have a top-10 grade.
So how about a cornerback to play on the other side of rising star A.J. Terrell? Stingley looked like a potential No. 1 pick when he was dominating as a true freshman on LSU’s national title team in 2019, but he was inconsistent in 2020 and then played just three games this season because of a foot injury. A team is going to have to take a little bit of a leap of faith with Stingley because he hasn’t played great for two seasons. The draft is all about upside, though, and he has the potential to be a superstar. I’m hoping he can work out at the combine to ease some concerns.
Nakobe Dean, ILB, Georgia
The Broncos need a quarterback, of course, but the feeling I get is that they’re more likely to try to add a veteran in either the trade or free-agent market. They have a solid roster, and a veteran could help them win right away. This could change as we get closer to the draft — and they hire a coach — but I’m going to stay away from quarterback here for now.
Denver could be a great spot for the draft’s best off-ball linebacker, Dean, who was the leader of the spectacular Georgia defense. He makes tackle after tackle and can run sideline to sideline to make plays, and he has three-down potential because of his ability to cover tight ends and running backs. He’ll also help as a blitzer — he had six sacks in 2021. The Broncos have the Rams’ second- and third-round picks from the Von Miller trade, so general manager George Paton has a real chance to get this team back to the playoffs if he can nail a few early selections, as he did with Pat Surtain II and Javonte Williams last year.
Drake London, WR, USC
Quarterback Zach Wilson had a rough rookie season, as the Jets finished near the bottom in most offensive statistics. So if I’m giving them defensive help with the No. 4 pick, let’s give Wilson a target here, because his best pass-catchers in 2021 are all better out of the slot. Elijah Moore, Jamison Crowder and Braxton Berrios are good players, but they’re never going to be down-the-field aerial threats.
London — who is 6-foot-5 and also played on the USC basketball team — has a chance to be a special outside receiver. He caught 88 passes for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns in eight games this season. His record-breaking year ended in late October because of a fractured right ankle, but he is expected to be ready for the 2022 season. He can be Wilson’s top target, giving the Jets a huge red zone threat. The Jets, by the way, also have an extra second-round pick from the Sam Darnold trade, and they could address the offensive line on Day 2 of the draft.
Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
Time for the first quarterback off the board. You might be surprised that it’s Willis, but you really shouldn’t be. He was in the QB1 mix all fall before he faded a little bit in the last stretch of the regular season. The more tape I watch of his past two seasons and the more I talk to evaluators in the league, the more I like him. Put simply, Willis is the most talented quarterback in this class. He didn’t always get to show that at Liberty, which didn’t have much NFL talent around him. (He was sacked an astounding 51 times in 2021.) This is a dual-threat signal-caller — he rushed for 1,822 yards and 27 touchdowns over the past two seasons — with a powerful arm. I’m really excited to see him compete against the other top QBs in the Senior Bowl in a couple weeks.
Like Denver, Washington could be in the veteran QB market, but I like the fit with Willis. Washington can’t go into the season with Taylor Heinicke as the starter.
Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
Since 2013, the Vikings have drafted four cornerbacks in Round 1 … and not a single one of them is still on their roster. Coach Mike Zimmer and general manager Rick Spielman are out, and the new regime will inherit a good, not great, roster with a couple significant voids, particularly at corner. Veteran Patrick Peterson was signed to a one-year deal last offseason, so he’s a free agent, and I’m not sold that Cameron Dantzler is a quality starter.
They should jump at the chance to take Gardner, a lockdown corner who presented problems for opposing offensive coordinators in 2021. He was targeted just 31 times as the nearest defender in coverage, and he allowed only eight catches for 60 yards. With Kirk Cousins not locked in long-term, I thought about a quarterback here, but Gardner is too good to pass up for a team in glaring need.
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
This was a pretty easy pick for me, because the Browns should take the best receiver left on the board. If they really are committed to Baker Mayfield for 2022 (and beyond), they should get their quarterback some help, because this is now two straight seasons in which they’ve trotted out a subpar receiving corps for the second half of the season.
Wilson, who caught 70 passes for 1,058 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2021, can play outside or in the slot. He’s a great route runner who can also run away from defensive backs after the catch. And the Buckeyes star doesn’t have to go too far if Cleveland takes him.
Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
Injuries decimated the Baltimore roster in 2021, but center Bradley Bozeman had a solid season. The problem? He’s now a free agent and could get more money on the open market. The Ravens could turn to the draft for his replacement, and if Linderbaum is on the board at No. 14, they would upgrade. Linderbaum is pro-ready right now — he already has great technique and is already a great run and pass blocker. This one makes a ton of sense.
Barring significant injuries again, Baltimore is well-positioned for another playoff run in 2022. It needs to keep Lamar Jackson clean in the pocket, and Linderbaum will certainly help there.
Devin Lloyd, ILB, Utah
This is the first of three Eagles picks in the next five, this one coming from the Dolphins in last March’s order-busting trade. And I know that some folks are going to connect Philly with a quarterback, but I’m not buying that; Jalen Hurts earned the 2022 job by his play down the stretch, even if he didn’t have a great playoff game. This team needs more talent on defense, so that’s where I’m going with the first two of these picks.
I had to dive deep back into my research to find the last time the Eagles took a linebacker in Round 1, going all the way back to Jerry Robinson in 1979. I was 18 years old at the time of that draft. This is both a need and value pick, as Lloyd is coming off a tremendous season. I’ve compared him to Tampa Bay’s Devin White — he’s an off-ball linebacker with speed, versatility, range and run-and-hit ability. He had eight sacks and four picks last season. This would be a major boost to the Philly D.
Arnold Ebiketie, DE, Penn State
The Eagles finished the regular season with wins in six of their final eight games powered by their running game, but again, this defense showed several holes. One of those was the pass rush — they finished 31st in the league in sacks with just 29, 11 of those coming from the tackle duo of Javon Hargrave and Fletcher Cox. I see edge rusher as a priority, even if 2017 first-rounder Derek Barnett, a free agent this offseason, returns to the team. He has never quite put together a consistent season, and he had just two sacks in 2021. So let’s use the pick from the Carson Wentz trade on a rising pass-rusher.
Ebiketie, a transfer from Temple, is coming off a stellar season for the Nittany Lions. He had 9.5 sacks, 19 total tackles for loss and two forced fumbles. He has long arms and is explosive at the snap, and he’s strong enough to set the edge in the run game. I’m a big fan.
Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
The Chargers again struggled against the run in 2021, an issue that has plagued them for years. Just go back to their 2018 divisional-round playoff game against the Patriots, when they were dominated up front. They allowed 4.8 yards per carry this season, which ranked 28th in the NFL. With Linval Joseph hitting free agency, there is a massive hole in the middle of their defensive line.
Who better to fill that than the 6-foot-6, 340-pound Davis? He’d make the entire defense better because he eats up blocks and allows linebackers to roam free. He also can play on three downs; he’s not just a plugger. He showed on his sack in the national title game that he has some pass-rush ability, which is scary for a man of his size. Davis won’t be a fit for every team, but the teams that run a 3-4 defense will eye him in this range.
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
The Saints won four of five games to end the season and almost snuck into the playoffs, but their offense was subpar after Jameis Winston tore his ACL in late October. If Winston goes elsewhere in free agency, Sean Payton is going to want a new quarterback to groom. Taysom Hill, who turns 32 before the start of the 2022 season, hasn’t shown enough to be considered their QB of the present nor future.
That’s why I see Pickett, who’s coming off an efficient 42-touchdown, seven-interception season, as the perfect fit for New Orleans. He took a huge leap in 2021, showing off pinpoint accuracy to every area of the field. He started 49 games in college, so he can play right away for a team that wants to compete for the playoffs. The biggest question I’ve heard from people in the NFL is one that you might laugh at: hand size. Pickett has small hands — we’ll find out the exact size at the Senior Bowl soon — and that matters to the teams doing the drafting. If he can play his home games in a dome in New Orleans, that’s a plus.
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
Let’s finish out the Eagles’ picks with another wide receiver, which would make back-to-back-to-back drafts that Philly went wideout in Round 1. This is still an issue, though. DeVonta Smith had a good rookie season and looks to be the clear No. 1, but 2020 first-rounder Jalen Reagor underwhelmed and might never be more than a decent third option. Going back to the 2019 draft, the Eagles took J.J. Arcega-Whiteside in Round 2, but he has just 16 catches over three seasons. Jalen Hurts has to get some more help.
Olave was a touchdown machine at Ohio State — he had 35 in four seasons — and he’s one of the best deep threats in this class. At 6-foot-1, he can play inside or outside. He’s a player who looks better and better when you watch all of his snaps in a game, because even if he didn’t catch 10 passes, he was always open.
Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
Like the Saints, the Steelers could immediately contend if they can figure out their quarterback position this offseason. Ben Roethlisberger appears likely to retire. I don’t see backups Mason Rudolph or Dwayne Haskins as NFL starters. They do have a strong core on both sides of the ball, though. If they acquire a veteran signal-caller via free agency or in a trade, this could be a spot to target a linemen to help a below-average O-line, but let’s assume for now that they go into the draft without adding one.
play
1:45
Field Yates and Mel Kiper Jr. discuss Ole Miss’ Matt Corral and his potential of being a quarterback in the NFL.
Corral fits the mentality of what Mike Tomlin wants from his team. He’s tough. He took a beating in multiple games in 2021, even running 30 times for 195 yards in a win over Tennessee. Oh, and he’s a stellar passer, too, with touch, accuracy and arm strength. At 6-foot, he’s not the biggest quarterback, but he threw 20 touchdown passes and just five picks this season. Corral sprained his ankle in the Rebels’ bowl game but should be fine to work out at the combine. Because he hasn’t yet graduated from school, he’s the only one of the top QBs who won’t be at the Senior Bowl, but he’ll get his chance to show his skill set in front of scouts later.
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
The Patriots had a solid 2021 draft, with quarterback Mac Jones and defensive tackle Christian Barmore turning into early starters and Day 3 pick Rhamondre Stevenson showing value in a running back rotation. What stuck out to me as I watched the Patriots, though, was their lack of playmakers in the passing game. Their top two receivers were former undrafted free agents (Jacobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne), and their tight ends didn’t beat defenders after the catch (when they got open). N’Keal Henry hasn’t developed like they had hoped. If they can get a deep threat for Jones here, they should be thrilled.
Williams, an Ohio State transfer with blazing speed, had a fantastic season for the Crimson Tide, catching 79 passes for 1,572 yards and 15 touchdowns. He would likely be in the top-10 range if he didn’t tear his ACL in the national title game, which means he might not be ready for training camp. Still, I don’t think he’s going to fall too far, because he’s a true No. 1 wideout when he’s healthy. This is good value for New England.
Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
This is another tough pick to figure out, with general manager Mike Mayock out and the Raiders now searching for someone to run their football operations. The Las Vegas roster has some issues, particularly along the right side of its offensive line and in the secondary, so I went with the top cornerback left on my board. Fifth-round pick Nate Hobbs was a nice find in last year’s draft, but this defense could use Booth, a 6-foot press-coverage corner who allowed only one completion of more than 20 yards in 2021. He was extremely consistent over the past two seasons, locking down receivers. The Raiders ranked 27th in QBR allowed (51.4) this season; taking Booth would address a weakness.
George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
After a 10-2 start, the Cardinals lost five of their final six games and crashed out in the playoffs, a disappointing finish for a team that once looked like a Super Bowl contender. And I think you can point to J.J. Watt’s shoulder injury in late October as a big reason why the defense took a step back down the stretch. Watt is still signed for another season, but his injury history means that Arizona needs to think about a replacement. That’s Karlaftis, a powerful 275-pound end who might be better in a 3-4 defense. He had only 4.5 sacks in 2021, but his pressure numbers were elite, even if he didn’t always get home to the quarterback. He’s really good against the run, too.
Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
Dallas had a disappointing playoff exit, but it still has a lot of young talent, led by do-it-all rookie linebacker Micah Parsons. The organization, however, has looming decisions on several free agents, including Randy Gregory, Dalton Schultz, Michael Gallup, Connor Williams, Leighton Vander Esch and Jayron Kearse. That means we’re going to know in March who the Cowboys have prioritized as guys to bring back and which positions will actually be needs by the time the draft rolls around in late April. Every team covets edge rushers, though.
Walker, whom McShay recently called “one of the most underrated prospects in the class,” stands out every time I watch the loaded Georgia defense. He can blow up tackles at the point of attack, and he has the physical traits to chase down ball carriers in the run game. At 6-foot-5 and 275 pounds, he has some scheme versatility at the next level.
Picks 25-32 will be set after each round of the playoffs. The order of these picks is now based on projections from ESPN’s Football Power Index.
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
There’s no way the Bengals would take back their choice of wideout Ja’Marr Chase over offensive tackle Penei Sewell in last year’s draft, but you saw this season why so many of us thought they would take Sewell. Joe Burrow was sacked 55 times — third-most in the league — and the offense averaged 4.0 yards per rush, which ranked 26th. They ranked 30th in ESPN’s pass block win rate metric. This is a below-average offensive line. Luckily for the Bengals, this is a deep tackle class at the top.
The 6-foot-7 Penning towered over defenders at the FCS level, and he was rarely challenged. He makes things look easy. Yes, it’s a big leap to the NFL, but I think he has the traits to be an early starter. If Cincinnati wants to keep 2019 first-rounder Jonah Williams on the left side, Penning could easily slot in at right tackle, where free-agent-to-be Riley Reiff played for most of 2021.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Miami has used significant assets to build its offense around quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but not every move has worked out, particularly along the offensive line. They’ve used three top-50 picks on the O-line in the past two drafts, and none of the three — Austin Jackson, Liam Eichenberg and Robert Hunt — is a surefire above-average starter. With Trevor Penning off the board in the previous pick, though, I don’t have another lineman with a Round 1 grade. So let’s address another spot to help Tagovailoa with this pick, which comes from the 49ers’ trade up in last year’s draft.
Dotson is a speedster who had 91 catches for 1,182 yards and 12 scores in 2021. Jaylen Waddle caught 104 passes as a rookie, but the best way to help Tagovailoa is to get him another pass-catcher who can make plays after the catch. Dotson is explosive with the ball in his hands and has the versatility to line up all over the field.
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
Buffalo doesn’t have many holes on its roster, but Tre’Davious White’s season-ending knee injury in November put the focus on its cornerback depth. This late in the first round, teams are hoping for rookie starters, but they’ll also take high-upside prospects who could grow into starters in time. McDuffie can cover wideouts outside or from in the slot, so the versatility is a plus. He was very good in man coverage for the Huskies. I also thought about a guard here, and the Bills’ running backs were disappointing again in 2021, even though Devin Singletary had a couple of good games to end the season. This is a little too high for a back on my board, but we could see risers after the combine, so keep an eye out.
Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina
I’m not sold on Jared Goff being Detroit’s guy past 2022, so why not take a quarterback flier here with the pick it got from the trade with the Rams? By taking Howell in Round 1, the Lions would get his fifth-year option, which means they could hand over the reins in 2023. Yes, they have a lot of needs, but if they think they can get their future starting signal-caller, they should pounce.
play
0:38
Sam Howell fools South Carolina and passes 37 yards to Garrett Walston for a TD, the 2-point conversion attempt succeeds.
Howell is a tricky evaluation, and he could definitely drop to Round 2. He looked like a potential top-10 pick after his sophomore season in 2020. At the beginning of the 2021 season, though, he really struggled, and he put a lot of bad tape out there while throwing to a completely new set of pass-catchers. He settled back in and improved down the stretch, finishing with 24 touchdown passes and nine picks, plus 11 rushing scores. He throws a beautiful deep ball and has tremendous touch on passes.
Cameron Thomas, DE, San Diego State
The Chiefs fixed their offensive line last offseason, but they still have issues on the other side of the ball. They ranked 30th in the NFL in yards per play allowed (5.9) and 31st in rushing yards allowed per carry (4.8) this season. They also had just 31 sacks, which ranked 29th. This is a defensive line that could use an infusion of young talent.
I like Thomas a lot because of his versatility — he lined up at both tackle and end for the Aztecs and created havoc at both spots. He had 11.5 sacks and a whopping 27 total tackles for loss in 2021. He’s powerful in the run game and has some bend as a pass-rusher. He’d be a menace for offensive tackles if he lined up next to Chris Jones.
DeMarvin Leal, DL, Texas A&M
Like the Cowboys, the Bucs have several free agents hitting the open market this offseason, including center Ryan Jensen, wide receiver Chris Godwin, cornerback Carlton Davis and defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul. So while time will tell which players they bring back, this pick is about a like-for-like replacement for Ndamukong Suh, who turned 35 earlier this month and has been playing on one-year contracts.
The 290-pound Leal could play defensive end in a 3-4 scheme or 3-technique tackle in a 4-3. He has a powerful lower half and strong hands. He had 8.5 sacks for the Aggies in 2021, showing improvement on his ability to take down quarterbacks.
Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington
I really liked Caleb Farley in the 2021 class, but a torn ACL ended his season after just two games, and that was after a back injury dropped him to the Titans in Round 1. That injury history is a little scary, which is why the Titans could go with back-to-back first-round corners.
Like his college teammate Trent McDuffie, Gordon has some scheme versatility and the ability to play in the slot as well as outside. He improved a lot in 2021, picking off two passes and breaking up seven throws. He can also tackle, and I think he’ll test well at the combine.
Trey McBride, TE, Colorado State
Is Aaron Rodgers staying in Green Bay or not? That’s the ominous cloud hanging over the team’s offseason. Either way, I don’t see it letting superstar wideout Davante Adams leave in free agency, so let’s move to the other top need on offense. Robert Tonyan snagged 11 touchdowns in 2020, but he tore his ACL in October and is a free agent in the offseason. The Packers could bring him back on a short-term deal, or they could find a long-term solution with McBride, the draft’s best tight end. He caught 90 passes for 1,121 yards in 2021, and he’s also a good blocker.
