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The Dow soars, Big Tech tumbles: What’s next for stocks as investors await Fed guidance

The past week offered a tale of two markets, with gains for the Dow Jones Industrial Average putting the blue-chip gauge on track for its best October on record while Big Tech heavyweights suffered a shellacking that had market veterans recalling the dot-com bust in the early 2000s.

“You have a tug of war,” said Dan Suzuki, deputy chief investment officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC (RBA), in a phone interview.

For the technology sector, particularly the megacap names, earnings were a major drag on performance. For everything else, the market was short-term oversold at the same time optimism was building over expectations the Federal Reserve and other major global central banks will be less aggressive in tightening monetary policy in the future, he said.

Read: Market expectations start to shift in direction of slower pace of rate hikes by Fed

What’s telling is that the interest-rate sensitive tech sector would usually be expected to benefit from a moderation of expectations for tighter monetary policy, said Suzuki, who contends that tech stocks are likely in for a long period of underperformance versus their peers after leading the market higher over the last 12 years, a performance capped by soaring gains following the onset of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

RBA has been arguing that there was “a major bubble within major portions of the equity market for over a year now,” Suzuki said. “We think this is the process of the bubble deflating and we think there’s probably further to go.”

The Dow
DJIA,
+2.59%
surged nearly 830 points, or 2.6%, on Friday to end at a two-month high and log a weekly gain of more than 5%. The blue-chip gauge’s October gain was 14.4% through Friday, which would mark its strongest monthly gain since January 1976 and its biggest October rise on record if it holds through Monday’s close, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

While it was a tough week for many of Big Tech’s biggest beasts, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-8.39%
and tech-related sectors bounced sharply on Friday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq swung to a weekly gain of more than 2%, while the S&P 500
SPX,
+2.46%
rose nearly 4% for the week.

Big Tech companies lost more than $255 billion in market capitalization in the past week. Apple Inc.
AAPL,
+7.56%
escaped the carnage, rallying Friday as investors appeared okay with a mixed earnings report. A parade of disappointing earnings sank shares of Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
+1.29%,
Google parent Alphabet Inc.
GOOG,
+4.30%

GOOGL,
+4.41%,
Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN,
-6.80%
and Microsoft
MSFT,
+4.02%.

Mark Hulbert: Technology stocks tumble — this is how you will know when to buy them again

Together, the five companies have lost a combined $3 trillion in market capitalization this year, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Opinion: A $3 trillion loss: Big Tech’s horrible year is getting worse

Aggressive interest rate increases by the Fed and other major central banks have punished tech and other growth stocks the most this year, as their value is based on expectations for earnings and cash flow far into the future. The accompanying rise in yields on Treasurys, which are viewed as risk-free, raises the opportunity cost of holding riskier assets like stocks. And the further out those expected earnings stretch, the bigger the hit.

Excessive liquidity — a key ingredient in any bubble — has also contributed to tech weakness, said RBA’s Suzuki.

And now investors see an emerging risk to Big Tech earnings from an overall slowdown in economic growth, Suzuki said.

“A lot of people have the notion that these are secular growth stocks and therefore immune to the ups and downs of the overall economy — that’s not empirically true at all if you look at the history of profits for these stocks,” he said.

Tech’s outperformance during the COVID-inspired recession may have given investors a false impression, with the sector benefiting from unique circumstances that saw households and businesses become more reliant on technology at a time when incomes were surging due to fiscal stimulus from the government. In a typical slowdown, tech profits tend to be very economically sensitive, he said.

The Fed’s policy meeting will be the main event in the week ahead. While investors and economists overwhelmingly expect policy makers to deliver another supersize 75 basis point, or 0.75 percentage point, rate increase when the two-day gathering ends on Wednesday, expectations are mounting for Chairman Jerome Powell to indicate a smaller December may be on the table.

However, all three major indexes remain in bear markets, so the question for investors is whether the bounce this week will survive if Powell fails to signal a downshift in expectations for rate rises next week.

See: Another Fed jumbo rate hike is expected next week and then life gets difficult for Powell

Those expectations helped power the Dow’s big gains over the past week, alongside solid earnings from a number of components, including global economic bellwether Caterpillar Inc.
CAT,
+3.39%.

Overall, the Dow benefited because it’s “very tech-light, and it’s very heavy in energy and industrials, and those have been the winners,” Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management told MarketWatch’s Joseph Adinolfi on Friday. “The Dow just has more of the winners embedded in it and that has been the secret to its success.”

Meanwhile, the outperformance of the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF
RSP,
+2.08%,
up 5.5% over the week, versus the market-cap-weighted SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
SPY,
+2.38%,
underscored that while tech may be vulnerable to more declines, “traditional parts of the economy, including sectors that trade at a lower valuation, are proving resilient since the broad markets bounced nearly two weeks ago,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Friday note.

“Stepping back, this market and the economy more broadly are starting to remind me of the 2000-2002 setup, where extreme tech weakness weighed on the major indices, but more traditional parts of the market and the economy performed better,” he wrote.

Suzuki said investors should remember that “bear markets always signal a change of leadership” and that means tech won’t be taking the reins when the next bull market begins.

“You can’t debate that we’ve already got a signal and the signal is telling up that next cycle not going to look anything like the last 12 years,” he said.

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Elon Musk Says Twitter Won’t Be ‘Free-for-All Hellscape,’ Addressing Advertisers’ Concerns

Advertisers are concerned about the billionaire’s plans to soften content moderation and what they say are potential conflicts of interest in auto advertising, given that he is chief executive of

Tesla Inc.,

say people familiar with the situation.

Mr. Musk said this spring that as owner of Twitter he would reinstate former President

Donald Trump’s

account, which the platform suspended indefinitely after linking Mr. Trump’s comments to the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. That would be a red line for some brands, said Kieley Taylor, global head of partnerships at GroupM, a leading ad-buying agency that represents blue-chip brands.

About a dozen of GroupM’s clients, which own an array of well-known consumer brands, have told the agency to pause all their ads on Twitter if Mr. Trump’s account is reinstated, Ms. Taylor said. Others are in wait-and-see mode. Ms. Taylor said she expects to hear from many more clients if Mr. Trump’s account returns.

“That doesn’t mean that we won’t be entertaining lots of emails and phone calls as soon as a transaction goes through,” Ms. Taylor said. “I anticipate we’ll be busy.”

In a message to advertisers on Twitter on Thursday, Mr. Musk said he was buying the company to “have a common digital town square, where a wide range of beliefs can be debated in a healthy manner.” He said Twitter “cannot become a free-for-all hellscape, where anything can be said with no consequences!” Mr. Musk said in addition to following laws, Twitter must be “warm and welcoming to all.”

He said Twitter aims to be a platform that “strengthens your brand and grows your enterprise.”

Twitter’s chief customer officer, Sarah Personette, tweeted that she had a discussion with Mr. Musk on Wednesday evening. “Our continued commitment to brand safety for advertisers remains unchanged,” she wrote. “Looking forward to the future!”

Mr. Trump has said he wouldn’t rejoin Twitter even if allowed. Representatives for Tesla and Mr. Trump didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Mr. Musk has completed the acquisition of Twitter, according to people familiar with the matter, after a monthslong legal battle in which he tried to back out of the $44 billion deal he agreed to in April. The judge overseeing the legal fight had said if the deal didn’t close by Friday she would schedule a November trial.

Twitter sent an email to some ad buyers earlier this week letting them know that the company is working with “the buyer” to close the acquisition by Friday and to acknowledge that Twitter is aware that advertisers have a lot of questions, according to the email, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. The email, which didn’t name Mr. Musk, said Twitter would work “with the potential buyer to answer quickly.”

Advertising provided 89% of Twitter’s $5.08 billion revenue in 2021. Mr. Musk has said he hates advertising. In a series of tweets earlier this year, he suggested Twitter should move toward subscriptions and remove ads from Twitter Blue, a premium program that gives users additional features. 

Twitter will become a private company if Elon Musk’s $44 billion takeover bid is approved. The move would allow Musk to make changes to the site. WSJ’s Dan Gallagher explains Musk’s proposed changes and the challenges he might face enacting them. Illustration: Jordan Kranse

Mr. Musk describes himself as a “free speech absolutist” and has said Twitter should be more cautious about removing tweets or banning users.

Mr. Musk may have reasons to avoid any drastic changes to Twitter’s ad business. Twitter will take on $13 billion in debt in the deal. The online-ad markets already are shaky, amid concerns about the economy, with

Snap Inc.

and

Alphabet Inc.

posting lower-than-expected revenue results for the September quarter.

Like other ad-supported social-media platforms, Twitter provides advertisers with adjacency controls, tools that are meant to ensure ads don’t appear next to certain content the brands deem objectionable.

Ask WSJ

The Musk-Twitter Deal

WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle sits down with Alexa Corse, WSJ reporter covering Twitter, at 1 p.m. ET Oct. 28 to discuss Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter. What does the future hold for the platform? And what does this deal mean for Mr. Musk’s business empire?

Some ad buyers said Twitter lags behind its competitors in providing so-called brand safety features. Joshua Lowcock, global chief media officer at UM Worldwide, an ad agency owned by Interpublic Group of Cos., called Twitter’s adjacency controls inadequate and “poorly thought through.”

Ad agency

Omnicom Media Group

evaluates the major social-media platforms’ progress on brand-safety tools every quarter. In July, Omnicom rated Twitter’s progress behind that of YouTube,

Facebook,

Instagram, TikTok and Reddit, according to a document reviewed by the Journal. Robert Pearsall, managing director of social activation at Omnicom Media Group, said Twitter has made agreements to improve its brand-safety controls to meet Omnicom’s standards, but it hasn’t introduced those changes to the market yet.

“There are significant concerns about the implications of a possible change to content moderation policy,” he said. Twitter has said it is working on tools to give advertisers a better idea of where their ads appear.

Advertising provided 89% of Twitter’s $5.08 billion revenue last year.



Photo:

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Automotive manufacturers have expressed concerns about advertising on Twitter under Mr. Musk’s ownership, given his role at electric-vehicle juggernaut Tesla, some ad buyers said. Advertisers often share data with Twitter and other platforms—on their own customers or people that are in the market for a car—to help target their ads at the right people. Some auto companies will be wary of doing so, out of concern that data may leak to Tesla, the buyers said.

Though Twitter relies on ad dollars, it isn’t one of the biggest players in the digital-ad economy. The company gets about 1.1% of U.S. digital-ad spending, according to Insider Intelligence, a much smaller slice than Google, Meta Platforms Inc. or

Amazon.com Inc.

Already, there have been signs of anxiety on Madison Avenue about Mr. Musk’s takeover of Twitter. In July, the company reported a 1% decrease in second-quarter revenue, which it blamed on uncertainty over the deal as well as broader pressures in the digital ad market.

Given Mr. Musk’s past remarks on advertising, some advertisers wonder if Mr. Musk may exit the ad business entirely.

“The question we keep getting asked is: Do we think Musk will turn off ads completely?” said UM Worldwide’s Mr. Lowcock.

Write to Patience Haggin at patience.haggin@wsj.com and Suzanne Vranica at suzanne.vranica@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8



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Elon Musk’s Twitter Reversal Revives Takeover Bid for a Now-Weaker Firm

Elon Musk’s

latest about-face over his $44 billion deal to buy

Twitter Inc.

TWTR -1.35%

has him poised to take over a company that is weaker than it was before he tried to abandon the agreement—thanks in part to his own actions.

Broad economic concerns have intensified since July 8, when Mr. Musk made public his intention to terminate the deal. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage point at a second and third straight meeting, the Dow Jones Industrial Average last week fell into what investors call a bear market, and Twitter’s social-media rival

Snap Inc.

is slashing jobs.

While Twitter’s stock price has held up because of Mr. Musk’s potential acquisition, its performance has declined. The company reported a surprising decline in revenue in the second quarter that it blamed on weakness in the advertising industry and uncertainty related to Mr. Musk’s acquisition.

Twitter this year is expected by analysts to report one of its slowest annual rates of sales growth ever as a public company, at 4.5%. In 2021, revenue rose 37%.

Mr. Musk has given few specific details about his plans for Twitter, but the billionaire chief executive of

Tesla Inc.

has said he wants to transform Twitter as a private company and unlock what he called its extraordinary potential as a platform for free speech.

He has talked about modifying Twitter’s rules around content moderation, reducing its reliance on advertising—which provided more than 90% of its revenue in this year’s second quarter—and making Twitter’s algorithms open source, which would allow others to view and recommend changes. Mr. Musk also has proposed “defeating the spam bots and authenticating all humans.”

In texts released last week as part of the litigation between Twitter and Mr. Musk over his effort to abandon the deal, Mr. Musk said in April that his biggest concerns were Twitter’s head count and expense growth. He also said he wanted to oversee software development at Twitter and works better with engineers than people with business degrees.

Twitter will become a private company if Elon Musk’s $44 billion takeover bid is approved. The move would allow Mr. Musk to make changes to the site. WSJ’s Dan Gallagher explains Mr. Musk’s proposed changes and the challenges he might face enacting them. Illustration: Jordan Kranse

There are no guarantees that Mr. Musk will follow through with his proposal and close the transaction. Mr. Musk and Twitter are scheduled to go to trial Oct. 17 in Delaware over his effort to abandon the deal, and that could still go forward.

On Wednesday, the Delaware Chancery Court judge presiding over the legal battle said she is pressing ahead with preparing for the trial and issued a ruling that asked Mr. Musk’s legal team to produce more of his text messages to the extent they haven’t done so already.

Should a deal occur and avert a trial, the resolution could ease some of the uncertainty surrounding the company’s future.

“Assuming the deal closes, it’s a good price for shareholders,” said Jason Goldman, former Twitter product chief and board member. “But it’s a bad outcome for everyone else,” including employees who have labored under the uncertainty and users who rely on the product, he said. Mr. Goldman said he didn’t think Mr. Musk has presented serious ideas about how he would lead such an influential platform.

Mr. Musk has proven doubters wrong before in becoming the world’s wealthiest person. He has turned Tesla into the world’s most valuable car company and a leader in electric vehicles, and his SpaceX company is the world’s busiest rocket-launch operation.

Mr. Musk’s legal team declined to comment Tuesday about his proposal. Twitter on Tuesday confirmed receipt of Mr. Musk’s letter and said it intends to close the transaction at the original price of $54.20 a share.

The outlook for the social-media industry has darkened in recent weeks.

Snap Inc.

in August said it was slashing one-fifth of its workforce and curbing investment in a range of areas after a slowdown in its business. Facebook parent

Meta Platforms Inc.

last week told employees it was implementing a hiring freeze and looking for other ways to cut costs.

In July, Twitter said in a regulatory filing that attrition was slightly higher than in normal economic times, but remained in line with current industry trends. Twitter said Tuesday that it had anticipated higher attrition this year even before the merger agreement.

In addition, Twitter’s former head of security,

Peiter Zatko,

emerged in August with a whistleblower complaint listing a litany of criticisms about the company’s management of security and privacy issues. That complaint prompted new scrutiny from Washington lawmakers. Twitter CEO

Parag Agrawal

told employees in a memo at the time that the spotlight on Twitter would “only make our work harder.” Twitter also said that Mr. Zatko’s claims were inaccurate.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

If the deal goes through, how do you think Elon Musk might change Twitter? Join the conversation below.

Despite the industry’s challenges, Twitter said in July that its audience has grown, reporting a second-quarter average of 237.8 million monetizable daily active users, up 17% from the same period a year earlier. Advertising revenue increased 2% in the second quarter compared with the year-earlier period.

Mr. Musk, when he met with Twitter employees in June, was asked about what he would consider successful for Twitter five to 10 years from now, and said a substantial increase in daily active users to over a billion, according to people familiar with the meeting. He also said during the meeting that Twitter should be entertaining, like TikTok, and that he admired the Chinese app

WeChat,

which is used heavily in China for a range of purposes including e-commerce and social networking.

Asked about his stance on free speech, Mr. Musk drew a distinction between freedom of speech and freedom of reach, according to attendees. He said that meant people should be allowed to say pretty outrageous things within the law but didn’t necessarily deserve to have their tweets amplified and spread virally across Twitter.

In the texts released last week, Mr. Musk said in April, “Twitter is obviously not going to be turned into some right wing nuthouse. Aiming to be as broadly inclusive as possible.”

Accomplishing that balance will be a challenge, content-moderation analysts said Tuesday.

“Elon Musk and his new leadership are about to get a crash course in the complexities of moderating harmful content,” said Eddie Perez, a former Twitter employee who worked on civic integrity and misleading information and is a board member at the OSET Institute, a nonpartisan election-technology group.

Write to Alexa Corse at alexa.corse@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Google Loses Most of Appeal of EU Android Decision

BRUSSELS—

Alphabet Inc.’s

GOOG 0.57%

Google suffered legal blows on two continents this week, a significant setback in the company’s efforts to fight allegations that it is abusing its dominance in digital advertising and on mobile phones.

The EU’s General Court in Luxembourg on Wednesday largely upheld a 2018 decision by the EU competition regulator that fined Google $4.33 billion for allegedly abusing the market dominance of its Android operating system for mobile phones to promote and entrench its Google search engine and Chrome browser on mobile devices.

The decision came shortly after a federal judge in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York on Tuesday denied the bulk of Google’s motion to dismiss the claims brought by a coalition of states led by Texas alleging Google abused its dominance in digital advertising tools, allowing the case to proceed to the discovery stage and ultimately toward trial.

The EU ruling means Google will very likely continue applying some of the changes it has made since to comply with the 2018 decision, including offering users in the EU a choice screen of different search engines. The Android case was the biggest of three antitrust fines totaling more than $8 billion that the EU has levied against Google since 2017—and it focused on mobile phones, one of the company’s fastest growth areas.

The ruling is also a vote of confidence for the European Commission, the bloc’s antitrust enforcer, which has been aggressive in targeting big U.S. tech companies and other firms over concerns about anticompetitive behavior. Last week, the Commission blocked

Illumina Inc.’s

$7.1 billion merger with cancer-test developer Grail Inc., two U.S. companies.

In the U.S., Judge P. Kevin Castel’s decision was closely watched because the Justice Department has been preparing a similar antitrust case against Google over its position in the advertising technology industry.

In both cases, Google did score some partial victories.

In the EU, the court annulled one element of the decision that alleged Google had broken competition laws by making revenue-sharing payments to manufacturers to exclusively pre-install only Google Search, not competing search engines. As a result, the court reduced the overall fine by about 5% to €4.13 billion, about the same in dollars.

“We are disappointed that the court did not annul the decision in full,” a Google spokesman said, adding that Android has created more competition in the mobile phone industry. The company has previously said it should be able to recoup the money it spends developing Android by encouraging manufacturers to install Google Search.

The court’s decision can still be appealed to the EU’s top court, the Court of Justice. Google said it would review the decision before deciding whether to appeal.

In the U.S., the judge tossed out claims pertaining to Google’s “Jedi Blue” ad agreement with rival Facebook—now known as Meta Platforms Inc. The plaintiffs alleged the deal was part of a plan to “kill” an alternative ad technology called header bidding that Google executives feared would harm its business. He also knocked down the plaintiffs’ claim that Google’s Accelerated Mobile Pages, or AMP, technology was part of an anticompetitive plot to curtail header bidding, among several other claims from the plaintiffs.

In a blog post Tuesday in response to the U.S. decision, Google called the Jedi Blue allegations the “centerpiece” of Texas’s case, and cited the various allegations that were tossed out as evidence that the case was “deeply flawed.”

In a statement on Wednesday, Texas Attorney General

Ken Paxton

applauded the judge’s decision, calling it “a major step in the right direction to make our free market truly free.”

The 2018 EU Android case has been significant because it focused on Google’s efforts to increase its mobile business, but also because it underscored Google detractors’ arguments that antitrust enforcement takes too long. By the time the commission had issued its decision, those detractors said Android had already helped make Google Search as dominant on mobile devices as it had been on desktops.

Shortening the time it takes to force companies to make changes in the market was a major reason that the EU pursued new digital-competition legislation called the Digital Markets Act, passed earlier this year. The new law will eventually make it illegal for Google and other very large tech companies to engage in a range of practices that the bloc considers to be anticompetitive, including some of the practices the commission has previously issued fines for.

The 2018 decision focused in large part on how Google bundled together the licensing of its apps for Android devices. In that decision, the EU ordered Google to stop requiring smartphone manufacturers to pre-install the company’s search app and Chrome web browser as a condition for licensing Google’s popular Play app store. It also said the company would have to allow manufacturers to install Google apps on systems that run alternative versions of the Android operating system.

The EU argued Google’s practices had made it harder for potential competitors to emerge and were part of a strategy that was meant to ensure that Google’s search engine would remain dominant as consumers began using search engines on their smartphones.

Google quickly appealed the 2018 decision but also had to comply with it while its appeal was under way. Google changed its licensing deals for manufacturers and implemented what it called a Choice Screen on Android devices, allowing users of new phones in the EU to select alternate default search engines. So far that choice screen doesn’t appear to have had an appreciable impact on the market share for Google Search in Europe.

Google’s appeal of the case centered in part on whether its Android operating system is dominant, arguing that the Commission was wrong to consider Android devices as their own market without seeing them as competitors to

Apple’s

iPhone and iPad devices. The company also argued that requirements to bundle Google Search with its app store weren’t anticompetitive, and that restrictions on use of other versions of Android were needed to ensure Android phones would be compatible with the company’s apps. The court dismissed Google’s arguments on all those points on Wednesday.

Google also argued that the revenue-sharing agreements that required phone makers not to pre-install other search engines covered less than 5% of the market and didn’t have an impact on competitors. The court on Wednesday sided with Google, ruling that the Commission didn’t prove its case on that point.

It is the European Commission’s second court victory against Google in as many years. Last year, Google lost its appeal of a separate, $2.42 billion antitrust fine over allegedly directing users of its search engine to Google’s own comparison-shopping ads at the expense of other services. A second appeal to the EU’s top court is pending.

Google was also fined $1.49 billion in 2019 for limiting how some websites could show ads that were sold by the company’s rivals. Its appeal of that case is still under way.

Google continues to attract scrutiny from antitrust regulators in the EU. Last year, the commission opened a formal antitrust investigation into allegations that Google abuses its dominant position in advertising technology. Google said its ad-tech tools are competitive and that it would work with the commission to resolve its questions.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this year that Google had offered concessions to try to ward off a potential antitrust lawsuit in the U.S. targeting the company’s ad-tech business.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this year that Google had offered concessions to try to ward off the Justice Department’s antitrust lawsuit targeting the company’s ad-tech business, but people familiar with the matter say the offer wasn’t likely to satisfy regulators.

Write to Sam Schechner at sam.schechner@wsj.com and Kim Mackrael at kim.mackrael@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Stocks Fall on Hotter-Than-Expected Inflation Data

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped more than 1,000 points Tuesday after hotter-than-expected inflation data dashed investors’ hopes that cooling price pressures would prompt the Federal Reserve to moderate its campaign of interest-rate increases.

Investors sold everything from stocks and bonds to oil and gold. All 30 stocks in the blue-chip average declined, as did all 11 sectors in the S&P 500. Only five stocks in the broad benchmark were in the green in recent trading. Facebook

 

META -9.36%

parent

Meta Platforms

dropped 8.3%,

BlackRock

declined 7.2% and

Boeing

fell 6.4%.

The 3.3% tumble in the Dow put the index on pace for its worst day since May. The S&P 500 declined 3.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite slid 4.5% as rate-sensitive technology stocks took a heavy beating.

The Dow is off 14% in 2022, while the S&P 500 is down 17% and the Nasdaq Composite has fallen 25%.

Investors had eagerly anticipated Tuesday’s release of the consumer-price index, which provided a last major look at inflation before the central bank’s interest-rate-setting committee meets next week. Expectations for the path of monetary policy have held sway over the markets as investors factor higher rates into asset prices and try to project how well the economy will hold up as rates rise.

“It increases the probability of recession if the Fed has to move more significantly to address inflation,” said Chris Shipley, chief investment strategist for North America at Northern Trust Asset Management.

The consumer-sentiment index and the consumer-confidence index both try to measure the same thing: consumers’ feelings. WSJ explains why the Federal Reserve is keeping a close eye on consumer confidence in 2022. Illustration: Adele Morgan

The new data showed the consumer-price index rose 8.3% in August from the same month a year ago. That was down from 8.5% in July and 9.1% in June—the highest inflation rate in four decades.

The figures show inflation is easing, but at a slower pace than investors and economists had anticipated. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had been expecting consumer prices to rise 8% annually in August.

Analysts had hoped that officials would consider easing their pace of interest-rate increases if data continued to show inflation subsiding. The data undercut those hopes, seeming to settle the case for the Fed to raise rates by at least 0.75 percentage point next week. After the release, stock futures fell, bond yields rose and the dollar rallied.

Traders began to consider the possibility that the central bank will raise interest rates by a full percentage point next week.

As of Tuesday afternoon, they assigned a 28% probability to a 1-percentage-point increase at that meeting, up from a 0% chance a day earlier, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

The market-based probability of a half-percentage-point increase, by contrast, fell to 0% from 9% on Monday, according to the CME data.

The most likely scenario remained an increase of 0.75 percentage point.

Beyond next week, the suggestion that inflation is sticking around raises the possibility that the Fed might ultimately raise rates higher than markets had been anticipating.

“That’s really the challenge,” said Matt Forester, chief investment officer of Lockwood Advisors at BNY Mellon Pershing. “The Fed might have to do a lot more work in order to contain inflation.”

Food prices have surged as part of a broader pickup in U.S. inflation.



Photo:

michael reynolds/EPA/Shutterstock

Fed Chairman

Jerome Powell

said earlier this month that the central bank is squarely focused on bringing down high inflation to prevent it from becoming entrenched as it did in the 1970s.

The reaction to the new inflation reading could be seen across asset classes.

The communication services, technology and consumer discretionary sectors of the S&P 500 all fell more than 4.5%. Semiconductor stocks were particularly hard hit:

Western Digital,

Nvidia,

Advanced Micro Devices

and

Micron Technology

declined more than 7%.

In bond markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note jumped to 3.429% from 3.361% Monday. Yields and prices move in opposite directions. The rise in bond yields was an additional sign that investors were expecting higher interest rates after the data. 

Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, fell 0.9% to $93.17 a barrel. Gold prices declined 1.3%.

The U.S. dollar, by contrast, rallied Tuesday. The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of other currencies, rose 1.3%. The strong dollar has weighed on the value of other currencies against the greenback this year.

Overseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 fell about 1.5%. In Asia, major indexes closed mixed. South Korea’s Kospi Composite rallied 2.7% , while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.2%. 

Write to Caitlin Ostroff at caitlin.ostroff@wsj.com and Karen Langley at karen.langley@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Walmart Lays Off Hundreds of Corporate Workers

Walmart Inc.

WMT -1.64%

is cutting hundreds of corporate roles in a restructuring effort, according to people familiar with the matter, a week after the retail giant warned of falling profits.

The retailer began notifying employees in its Bentonville, Ark., headquarters and other corporate offices of the restructuring, which affects various departments including merchandising, global technology and real-estate teams, the people said. Around 200 jobs in total are being cut, said one of these people.

A Walmart spokeswoman confirmed that there were roles being eliminated as the company updated its structure, but said that the company was also investing in other areas and creating some new roles.

Last week, Walmart warned that its profit would decline in the current quarter and fiscal year because it was having to mark down apparel and other merchandise that has piled up in its stores. The retailer said higher prices for food and fuel were causing U.S. shoppers to pull back on other categories that are more profitable for it.

Walmart was one of several retailers that was caught off guard this spring as shoppers shifted their spending away from products that have been in high demand throughout much of the pandemic. In addition, some products arrived late due to supply-chain snarls, causing oversupply as shopper interest waned.

Target Corp.

in June issued a profit warning after it reported quarterly results that, like Walmart, showed a surge in inventory levels. Last week,

Best Buy Co.

cut its sales and profit goals, saying consumers had pulled back on electronics.

Walmart is the largest private employer in the U.S. and while much of its workers are hourly staff, it has thousands of people in corporate roles. Walmart employed 2.3 million worldwide, including 1.7 million in the U.S., as of Jan. 31.

While the overall U.S. job market has been strong, a handful of other major employers are pulling back on hiring or cutting some jobs.

Ford Motor Co.

is preparing to cut thousands of white-collar workers, while technology giants such as

Microsoft Corp.

and Facebook parent

Meta Platforms Inc.

have pulled back.

Investors will get another update on the health of the U.S. job market on Friday when the government releases data for July. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal think Friday’s jobs report will show that they added more than 250,000 in July, compared with 372,000 in June.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

Write to Sarah Nassauer at sarah.nassauer@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Appeared in the August 4, 2022, print edition as ‘Walmart Trims White- Collar Personnel.’

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Roku Swings to Second-Quarter Loss on Slower Ad Spending

Roku Inc.

ROKU -2.01%

said it expected two of its main revenue drivers—advertising and sales of streaming hardware—to come under further pressure during the second half of the year, sending the company’s shares down 25% in after-hours trading.

“We are in an economic environment defined by recessionary fears, inflationary pressures, rising interest rates, and ongoing supply chain disruptions,” the company said in a letter to investors Thursday in which it announced its second-quarter results. It forecast that ad spending would continue to be negatively affected as a result. “We also believe that consumer discretionary spend will continue to moderate, pressuring both Roku TV and Roku player sales.”

The company said it expected to make $700 million in revenue during the third quarter, below analysts’ expectations of $898.3 million. Roku also withdrew its full-year revenue growth rate estimate, citing uncertainty and volatility in the macro environment.

San Jose, Calif.-based Roku is the nation’s largest maker of streaming hardware—accounting for about 37% of the U.S. market, according to Parks Associates—but it derives most of its revenue from advertising: It sells all ads viewed on The Roku Channel, its own streaming service, and also sells some ads that appear on other streaming services viewed on Roku devices.

In the second quarter, the company swung to a loss of $112.3 million, or a loss of 82 cents a share, compared with a profit of $73.5 million, or 52 cents a share, a year earlier. Analysts polled by FactSet expected a loss of 71 cents a share.

Supply-chain issues are pushing up prices for Roku’s component parts, the company said. Roku said it was absorbing the higher costs to insulate customers from price increases, which resulted in a negative gross margin of 24% for its players.

Roku’s stock has had a rough 2022 so far. Even before Thursday’s after-hours plunge, its shares were down 63% since the start of the year.

As markets react to inflation and high interest rates, technology stocks are having their worst start to a year on record. WSJ’s Hardika Singh explains why the sector — from tech giants to small startups — is getting hit so hard. Illustration: Jacob Reynolds

Revenue rose 18% to $764.4 million. Of that, $673.2 million came from platform revenue—which includes revenue from advertisers and content publishers—while player revenue accounted for $91.2 million.

Roku Chief Executive

Anthony Wood

described the ad-market upheaval as cyclical. “We’re in an economic cycle where advertising is trending down. It’ll turn around,” he said during a call with analysts Thursday. He also said Roku was the beneficiary of some of that upheaval, because some advertisers were shifting more ad dollars away from traditional TV and toward streaming services, helping Roku grow its market share.

During the second quarter, advertisers in the automotive and consumer-packaged-goods industries reduced their spending on traditional TV, but increased their spending on Roku by a double-digit percentage, said Alison Levin, Roku’s vice president for ad sales and strategy, during a call with journalists before the earnings call.

Roku will soon face competition for streaming ad dollars from two major competitors: streaming services

Netflix

and

Disney

+ are planning to begin selling ads. Mr. Wood said he believed the new entrants to the market would complement Roku by making streaming ads an even greater draw for advertisers.

“With companies like Netflix and Disney moving into ads, it makes streaming ads even more mainstream,” he said.

Write to Patience Haggin at patience.haggin@wsj.com and Denny Jacob at denny.jacob@wsj.com

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Opinion: Is Mark Zuckerberg taking the first step toward turning Facebook into Yahoo 2.0?

Yahoo was once the most popular website on the planet, the only place that everyone on the internet seemed to touch at least once an online session. After an ignominious slide, however, Yahoo is just another site that has some fans in certain parts of Asia and offers some niche products.

Has Mark Zuckerberg launched Facebook on a similar path?

That is the big question investors need to start asking as the Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
+6.55%
chief executive scrambles to shift his strategy amid obvious signs of distress. After its first-ever decline in users three months ago, Facebook reported its first quarterly revenue decline in history Wednesday, and Zuckerberg’s answer is to mimic a rival and send the company into dangerous waters that already almost killed the platform and took U.S. democracy with it.

Zuckerberg is changing the company’s core apps to become far more reliant on artificial intelligence to drive the content its users see, seeking to mimic growing Chinese rival TikTok — a major shift to give the algorithm more power over what people see on Facebook and Instagram. Zuckerberg told analysts on the company’s second-quarter earnings call that Meta’s apps will rely more on its discovery engine, instead of people or things you follow, for content. That means users will see (and are already seeing) content from complete strangers in their feeds and videos, just like TikTok.

“Right now, about 15% of content in a person’s Facebook feed, and a little more than that of their Instagram feed, is recommended by our AI from people, groups or accounts that you don’t follow,” Zuckerberg said. “And we expect these numbers to more than double by the end of next year.”

Facebook was lucky to survive a series of scandals in recent years, from allowing election misinformation to run amok to selling private user data to helping spread the incitement of violence that led to the storming of the U.S. Capitol. Yet apparently nothing was learned, as the company, or at least its algorithm, will now decide what stranger’s content you will see.

Facebook, and the world, have already learned that bad actors will learn how to game that algorithm, leading to dominance of incendiary posts or videos, divisive content that will pit strangers against strangers, on an even scarier scale than exists today. If we’re lucky, the result will be that the users Facebook still has will decide it’s time to leave for other online destinations, as Yahoo’s fans once did.

While the algorithm takes even more charge of Facebook and Instagram — the content-moderation aspect of both social-media sites is already mostly handled by AI, Zuckerberg said in answer to a question on the call, showing just how incapable Facebook’s technology is at succeeding in its aims — Zuckerberg will expend his human capital on his pipe dream of the “metaverse.” Zuckerberg’s grand vision is to create a digital universe populated by those who want to escape the real world of grass, flowers, air, sky, animals and humans by wearing a clunky headset so you can hang out with your friends in a digital nightclub or boardroom or wherever else you want.

Virtual reality has only proven to be popular among a small segment of the population, and it is still too kludgy to be adopted by the mainstream consumer, something Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang has already learned. So instead, all those parents and grandparents on Facebook, the olds Zuckerberg no longer cares about, will be tended by bots, while his minions focus on a new world: The uncomfortable, potentially dystopian future.

Facebook and Instagram have had huge growth because they appealed to the masses, not just advanced users or the techies who develop these products. If Meta loses these users, its apps will continue their current downward spiral — digital ad declines, recession or not — much in the same way that Yahoo failed to transition to mobile, with a complex site and services that could not easily adapt even as they tried to copy younger rivals, just as Facebook is doing now.

Zuckerberg is the king of Meta, with total founder control, so what he says is the law of the land — power that Yang and the parade of CEOs who took over Yahoo when he was not in charge never had. Nobody is going to stop Zuckerberg from this bet on an algorithm-driven future, so investors need to decide if they want to take the chance that there is nothing ahead of him but a downward spiral to the same fate Silicon Valley has already seen from a once-popular portal to the web.

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Opinion: Google and Microsoft earnings show the bar has been lowered for Big Tech

Alphabet Inc. and Microsoft Corp. both reported results that missed Wall Street’s expectations Tuesday, but not only did investors not melt down, both actually saw their stocks rise in after-hours trading.

Amid troubling economic signs, tech stocks have been battered so far this year, and fears about a slowdown among Big Tech names had Wall Street on edge heading into this week. But the reactions to earnings misses Tuesday afternoon show that the fears and declines so far this year have resulted in a lowered bar for even the biggest of the Big Tech names.

Microsoft
MSFT,
-2.68%
missed on both revenue and profit expectations, and forecast that its cloud business, Azure, will grow about 43% in the September quarter, amid fears of slowing cloud growth. While the four-percentage-point deceleration from the previous quarter’s growth rate may have led to sharp declines in the past, Microsoft stock jumped as soon as the forecast was provided.

Google parent Alphabet
GOOGL,
-2.32%

GOOG,
-2.56%
reported an earnings decline for a second quarter in a row, and told analysts on its conference call that a slowdown by ad buyers impacted its second quarter. Yet Alphabet shares were up nearly 5% in after-hours trading.

“In context of the weakening macro backdrop, Alphabet’s Q2 results were decent, with close to in-line revenues across all key business segments,” wrote Colin Sebastian, an analyst with Baird Equity Research, in a note to clients, summing up the general view on Wall Street that things were not yet as bad as feared.

Much like the relief rally seen by Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
-4.50%
shares three months ago, however, this is a case of numbers that, while good enough to avoid tanking their stocks, still shouldn’t actually be seen as “good.” Both companies warned about the macroeconomy, and clearly each company has businesses that are slowing sharply right now.

In Alphabet’s case, revenue at YouTube, a recent star, grew a scant 3% in the second quarter, compared with 14.3% growth in the first quarter, due to overall advertiser pullbacks in spending and more competition from TikTok. Microsoft saw its PC business soften, as the big PC boom of the pandemic is over. The advertising slowdown is also affecting its LinkedIn business, while the Xbox business is slowing rapidly as the pandemic-fueled surge in videogames wears off.

But those stocks are not facing the wrath reserved for some smaller competitors. Last week, social-media company Snap Inc.
SNAP,
-3.22%
raised more fears among investors about internet ad spending, and its stock plunged as the overall economy battles with inflation, changing consumer patterns and higher interest rates.

Microsoft and Google were able to avoid the same fate, though it’s possible that it will just take longer for the slowdown to actually affect companies so large, and with dominant positions in important industries. But make no mistake, there is a slowdown, and it is affecting Big Tech, just maybe not to the degree that it will result in big chunks taken out of their gargantuan market caps — yet.

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Twitter Reports Surprising Drop in Revenue Amid Elon Musk Fight

Shares of Twitter fell 2% to $38.72 in premarket trading. Twitter’s results Friday follow rival social-media company

Snap Inc.

SNAP 5.42%

posting its weakest-ever quarterly sales growth because of “increasing competition for advertising dollars that are now growing more slowly.”

Twitter, in its news release, cited “advertising industry headwinds associated with the macroenvironment as well as uncertainty related to the pending acquisition of Twitter.” The company won’t host an earnings conference call because of the pending transaction, which it is suing Mr. Musk to complete.

Twitter’s revenue dipped to $1.18 billion from $1.19 billion a year ago, and was below the average analyst estimate of $1.32 billion on

FactSet.

Advertising revenue rose 2% from a year earlier to $1.08 billion. In the first quarter, advertising revenue grew 23%.

“The digital ad metrics they’re holding are relatively firm despite a dark macro environment,” Wedbush Securities analyst

Dan Ives

said. “They’re not falling off a cliff like we saw with Snap.” Shares of Snap were down more than 30% in premarket trading Friday.

Twitter reported a loss of $270 million, or 35 cents a share, compared with year-ago earnings of $65.6 million, or 8 cents a share. Excluding items like stock-based compensation, the company reported an adjusted loss of 8 cents a share. Analysts, on average, were expecting an adjusted profit of 14 cents a share, FactSet shows.

The number of Twitter’s monetizable average daily active users increased to 237.8 million from 229 million in the first quarter and 206 million a year ago. U.S. users–who make up the company’s biggest market–grew to 41.5 million from 39.6 million in the first quarter and 37 million a year ago. The company said the increase was driven by product improvements and global conversation around current events.

At the release of its results in April, Twitter said it was withdrawing earlier goals and outlooks, and it wouldn’t provide forward-looking guidance. Before Mr. Musk’s courtship, Twitter had been working to achieve three main goals by the end of 2023: to surpass $7.5 billion in annual revenue, reach 315 million daily users and double the pace at which it produces new technology.

Earlier this week, Delaware Chancery Court’s chief judge granted Twitter’s request to fast-track its lawsuit against Mr. Musk. A five-day trial is scheduled for October despite opposition from the billionaire’s lawyers, who argued that a trial should take place on or after Feb. 13 of next year.

Mr. Musk has said his primary reason for backing out of the deal is a lack of faith in Twitter’s estimate that less than 5% of its monetizable daily active users are spam or fake accounts. He has said that estimate is probably too low.

Twitter has said for years in its securities filings that the number of fake and spam accounts on its platform could be higher than its estimates. The company said in its lawsuit against Mr. Musk that he has buyer’s remorse over the fall in share prices since he agreed to the deal in April.

In a recent court filing, Mr. Musk’s team said they became concerned about Twitter’s user numbers after the company disclosed in its April earnings report that it had overstated its user base for nearly three years through the end of 2021 because of an error in how it accounted for people linked to multiple accounts. The revision reduced the number of monetizable daily active users by 0.9% for the fourth quarter of last year.

The court filing also said Mr. Musk met with Twitter executives in May to discuss how the company measures spam and that he was “flabbergasted to learn just how meager” its process was and pointed to the absence of automated tools to help with the calculation.

Mr. Musk’s bid for Twitter has helped hold up the company’s stock price amid a sharp selloff in tech company stocks. Before Friday, Twitter’s stock price was down less than 10% so far this year, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has lost more than 20%.

The deal for Twitter values the company at $54.20 a share. Twitter shares closed at $39.52 on Thursday.

Elon Musk has cultivated close ties with Beijing to build Tesla’s business in China. Now that he is buying Twitter and focusing on free speech, WSJ looks at how China has used the social-media platform to promote its views, and why that’s raising concerns. Photo Illustration: Sharon Shi

Write to Sarah E. Needleman at sarah.needleman@wsj.com

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