Tag Archives: PreElection

India hikes spending, shuns ‘outright populism’ in last pre-election budget

  • Capex to rise 33% to 10 trillion rupees in 2023/24
  • Govt targets gross borrowing of 15.43 trillion rupees
  • Eyes fiscal deficit of 5.9% in 2023/24, 4.5% by 2025/26

NEW DELHI, Feb 1 (Reuters) – India announced on Wednesday one of its biggest ever increases in capital spending for the next fiscal year to create jobs but targeted a narrower fiscal deficit in its last full budget ahead of a parliamentary election due in 2024.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party has been under pressure to create jobs in the populous country where many have struggled to find employment, although the economy is now one of the world’s fastest-growing.

“After a subdued period of the pandemic, private investments are growing again,” Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said as she presented the 2023/24 budget in parliament.

“The budget makes the need once again to ramp up the virtuous cycle of investment and job creation. Capital investment is being increased steeply for the third year in a row by 33% to 10 trillion rupees.”

Reuters Graphics

The capital spending increase to about $122.3 billion, which would amount to 3.3% of gross domestic product (GDP), will be the biggest such jump after an increase of more than 37% between 2020/21 and 2021/22.

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Total spending will rise 7.5% to 45.03 trillion rupees ($549.51 billion) in the next fiscal year starting on April 1.

Sitharaman said the government would target a fiscal deficit of 5.9% of GDP for 2023/24 compared with 6.4% for the current fiscal year and slightly lower than a Reuters poll of 6%. The aim is to lower the deficit to 4.5% by 2025/26.

Reuters Graphics

STEADY ‘MACRO BOAT’

Brokerage Nomura said the budget “prudently pushes for growth, without rocking the macro boat”.

“In the event, the government has presented a good budget. It has pushed for growth via public capex and continued on the path towards fiscal consolidation, without offering much in terms of outright populism.”

Capital Economics said the “absence of a fiscal blowout”, a recent drop in inflation and signs of moderating growth could convince India’s central bank to slow the pace of rate hikes next week.

It said there was still a chance of fiscal slippage as campaigning kicks off for the election, in which Modi is widely projected to win a third straight term.

The finance ministry’s annual Economic Survey, released on Tuesday, forecast the economy could grow 6% to 6.8% next fiscal year, down from 7% projected for the current year, while warning about the impact of cooling global demand on exports.

Sitharaman said India’s economy was “on the right track, and despite a time of challenges, heading towards a bright future”.

India’s real GDP is forecast to grow in the range of 6-6.8% in FY24

Her deficit plan will be aided by a 28% cut in subsidies on food, fertiliser and petroleum for the next fiscal year at 3.75 trillion rupees. The government cut spending on a key rural jobs guarantee programme to 600 billion rupees – the smallest in more than five years – from 894 billion rupees for this fiscal year.

Reuters Graphics

The government’s gross market borrowing is estimated to rise about 9% to 15.43 trillion rupees next fiscal year.

Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics

CONSTRAINTS

Moody’s Investors Service said the narrower fiscal deficit projection pointed to the government’s commitment to longer-term fiscal sustainability, but that a “high debt burden and weak debt affordability remain key constraints that offset India’s fundamental strengths”.

Among other moves to stimulate consumption, the surcharge on annual income above 50 million rupees was cut to 25% from 37%.

Indian shares reversed earlier gains to close lower on Wednesday, led by a fall in insurance companies after the budget proposed to limit tax exemptions for insurance proceeds, while Adani Group shares tumbled again as it struggles to repel concerns raised by a U.S. short seller.

Since taking office in 2014, Modi has ramped up capital spending including on roads and energy, while wooing investors through lower tax rates and labour reforms, and offering subsidies to poor households to clinch their political support.

A lack of jobs for young people, and meagre wages for those who do find work, has been one of the main criticisms of Modi.

Sitharaman also said the government was allocating 350 billion rupees for energy transition, as Modi focuses on green hydrogen and other cleaner fuels to meet India’s climate goals.

($1 = 81.7725 Indian rupees)

Reporting by Shubham Batra, Nikunj Ohri, Shivangi Acharya, Sarita Singh, Nigam Prusty, Manoj Kumar, Rupam Jain and Indian bureaux; Writing by Krishna N. Das; Editing by Kim Coghill, Jacqueline Wong and Gareth Jones

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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More than 34 million people have voted already. These states have the most pre-election votes cast so far. 

The heavy hitters of American politics are hitting the campaign trail to deliver some closing arguments about the importance of next Tuesday’s election.

But their messages might not be sinking in.

It’s about democracy writ large

President Joe Biden told donors in Florida this week that “democracy is on the ballot.”

Later, in a speech from Washington, DC, he warned about political violence across the country.

But in a nod to the realities of his own political toxicity, Biden has largely avoided events to whip up voters in states with key races.

It’s about democracy in individual states

In Arizona, former President Barack Obama, who is extremely popular and a real draw for Democrats, told a rally that if a slate of Republican election deniers there wins next week, “Democracy as we know it may not survive in Arizona.”

He added: “That’s not an exaggeration. That is a fact.”

Candidates for secretary of state in Arizona and Nevada, in particular, have promised to upend the election systems there to guard against widespread voter fraud, for which there is no evidence.

It’s about 2024

Former President Donald Trump will kick off his closing blitz of rallies starting in Iowa, which is not the site of the most hotly contested Senate race but is home to the first presidential preference contest in the coming 2024 primaries.

At an earlier rally in Texas, Trump framed the election as an opportunity for the “MAGA movement” to take back the country from Democrats.

CNN’s Gabby Orr and Jeff Zeleny have an excellent look at where Trump is going, who he is appearing with and what it may mean. Note: Trump is not campaigning with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, but he is campaigning in Florida.

Read the full analysis here.

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New documentary film footage shows Roger Stone pre-Election Day


Washington
CNN
 — 

The day before the 2020 election, Roger Stone, the long-time Republican operative and ally of former President Donald Trump, said in front of a documentary film crew that he had no interest in waiting to tally actual votes before contesting the election results.

“F**k the voting, let’s get right to the violence,” Stone can be heard saying, according to footage provided by a Danish documentary film crew and obtained by CNN.

The clip is one of multiple pieces of footage obtained by CNN that the filmmakers also shared with the House select committee investigating the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol. The filmmakers tell CNN they came to an agreement to share certain clips with the committee after a subpoena for the footage was signed by the panel’s chairman, Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson of Mississippi, and delivered to the filmmakers in Copenhagen about two months ago.

The filmmakers, Christoffer Guldbrandsen and Frederik Marbell, followed Stone for portions of about three years for their documentary film.

The footage shared with the committee may be incorporated into its upcoming hearing this week. Committee member Rep. Jamie Raskin, a Maryland Democrat, suggested publicly over the weekend that the panel has more to reveal about the connection between Stone and domestic extremist groups, as well as efforts to keep Trump in power after the US Capitol attack and the ongoing threats to democracy.

“Stay tuned,” Raskin said at the Texas Tribune festival when asked about Stone’s possible connections to the Capitol riot.

“He’s someone who I think saw where things were going,” Raskin said.

In an exclusive interview with CNN’s Don Lemon, the filmmakers said the committee appeared interested in footage that focused on Stone’s relationship with the White House, and also his alleged ties to the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys. The filmmakers said they were not able to establish a link between Stone, those groups and the White House.

Members of the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys face multiple charges – including seditious conspiracy – for their actions during the Capitol riot.

The trial for several Oath Keepers, including their leader Stewart Rhodes, will begin with jury selection on Tuesday.

When committee investigators traveled to Denmark to review documentary footage related to Stone, they came to agreement with the filmmakers to share 8 minutes of video that were of interest to the panel and within the scope of its investigation. Politico first reported that trip in August.

The film crew was also contacted by the FBI in March and has not shared footage with federal investigators, the filmmakers said. The FBI did not issue the crew a subpoena, they said.

Filmmaker: Video shows Roger Stone revealing how ‘stop the steal’ would work

In a second clip of the documentary, also obtained by CNN, Stone said that Trump should prematurely claim victory on election night 2020.

“I really do suspect it’ll still be up in the air. When that happens, the key thing to do is to claim victory. Possession is nine tenths of the law, no we won,” Stone said on November 1, 2020, according to the footage.

In another clip, filmed a week after January 6, Stone is seen criticizing the White House Counsel’s Office for what he described as their argument that Trump could not provide preemptive pardons to Stone and others for their alleged involvement in efforts to overturn the election.

“I believe the President is for it. The obstacles are these – are these lily livered, weak kneed, bureaucrats in the White House Counsel’s Office and now they must be crushed because they’ve told the President something that’s not true,” Stone says in the clip.

As far back as July 2020, Stone talked about challenging the upcoming presidential election in the courts. “The election will not be normal,” he said.

“Sorry, we’re not accepting them,” he said of the anticipated results. “We’re challenging them in court.”

“If the electors show up at the Electoral College, armed guards will throw them out,” he continued. “I’m challenging all of it. And the judges we’re going to, are judges I appointed.”

Stone disputed the authenticity of the footage.

“I challenge the accuracy and the authenticity of these videos and believe they have been manipulated and selectively edited. I also point out that the filmmakers do not have the legal right to use them. How ironic that Kim Kardashian and I are both subjected to computer manipulated videos on the same day,” Stone said in a statement to CNN.

“The excerpts you provided below prove nothing, certainly they do not prove I had anything to do with the events of January 6th. That being said, it clearly shows I advocated for lawful congressional and judicial options,” he added.

It’s unclear what the committee may have uncovered, but there are some basic details that are known of Stone’s whereabouts and involvement in the events surrounding January 6.

On January 5, the day before the Capitol attack, members of the far-right militia group the Oath Keepers provided security for Stone during a rally that day, including driving him around on a golf cart.

Stone also had contacts with the Proud Boys, a right-wing group known for street violence, and has been recorded reciting the group’s creed in a video released by the House select committee.

According to former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson’s testimony to the committee this summer, the night before January 6, Trump told then-chief of staff Mark Meadows to ask Stone and former national security adviser Michael Flynn what was going to happen on January 6.

Hutchinson testified that Meadows called Stone and Flynn that evening and tried to go to Washington’s Willard Hotel, where Trump supporters – including Stone – had set up a “war room.”

Stone, who attended the “Stop the Steal” rally on January 6, has not been charged with a crime related to the Capitol attack.

This story has been updated with additional details Monday.

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Germany Investigates Russia Over Pre-Election Hacking

BERLIN — The federal prosecutor’s office in Germany said Friday it was investigating who was responsible for a spate of hacking attempts aimed at lawmakers, amid growing concerns that Russia is trying to disrupt the Sept. 26 vote for a new government.

The move by the prosecutor’s office comes after Germany’s Foreign Ministry said this week that it had protested to Russia, complaining that several state lawmakers and members of the federal Parliament had been targeted by phishing emails and other attempts to obtain passwords and other personal information.

Those accusations prompted the federal prosecutor to open a preliminary investigation against what was described as a “foreign power.” The prosecutors did not identify the country, but they did cite the Foreign Ministry statement, leaving little doubt that their efforts were concentrated on Russia.

In their statement, the prosecutors said they had opened an investigation “in connection with the so-called Ghostwriter campaign,” a reference to a hacking campaign that German intelligence says can be attributed to the Russian state and specifically to the Russian military intelligence service known as the G.R.U.

Russia was found to have hacked into the German Parliament’s computer systems in 2015 and three years later, it breached the German government’s main data network. Chancellor Angela Merkel protested over both attacks, but her government struggled to find an appropriate response, and the matter of Russian hacking is now especially sensitive, coming in the weeks before Germans go to the polls to select a successor after her nearly 16 years in power.

“The German government regards this unacceptable action as a threat to the security of the Federal Republic of Germany and to the democratic decision-making process, and as a serious burden on bilateral relations,” Andrea Sasse, a spokeswoman for the Foreign Ministry, said on Wednesday. “The federal government strongly urges the Russian government to cease these unlawful cyber activities with immediate effect.”

Ms. Merkel is not running for re-election and will leave office after a new government is formed, meaning the election will be crucial in determining Germany’s future — and shaping its relationship with Russia.

Of the three candidates most likely to replace Ms. Merkel, Annalena Baerbock of the Greens, who has pledged to take the toughest stance against Moscow, has been the target of the most aggressive disinformation campaign.

The other two candidates — Armin Laschet of Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, and Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrats, currently Ms. Merkel’s vice-chancellor and finance minister — have served in three of the four Merkel governments, and neither is expected to change Berlin’s relationship to Moscow.

Ms. Merkel enacted tough economic sanctions against Moscow after the 2014 invasion of Ukraine despite some pushback in other capitals and at home, but she has also worked hard to keep the lines of communication to Moscow open.

The two countries have significant economic links, not least in the energy market, where they most recently cooperated on construction of a direct natural gas pipeline, which the Russian energy company Gazprom announced had been completed on Friday.

U.S. intelligence agencies believe that “Ghostwriter,” a Russian program that received its nickname from a cybersecurity firm, was active in disseminating false information about the coronavirus before the 2020 U.S. presidential election, efforts that were considered to be a refinement of what Russia tried to do during the 2016 campaign.

But attempts to meddle in previous German election campaigns have been limited, partly because of respect for Ms. Merkel, but also because the far-right and populist parties that have emerged in France and Italy have failed to gain as much traction in Germany.

German intelligence officials nevertheless remain concerned that their country, Europe’s largest economy and a leader in the European Union, is not immune to outside forces seeking to disrupt its democratic norms.

Russia’s state-funded external broadcaster, RT, runs an online-only German-language service that for years has emphasized divisive social issues, including public health precautions aimed at stemming the spread of the coronavirus and migration.

During a visit to Moscow last month, Ms. Merkel denied accusations that her government had pressured neighboring Luxembourg to block a license request from the station, which would have allowed it to broadcast its programs to German viewers via satellite.



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