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Tag Archives: Predicting
NBA All-Star Game Mock Draft: Predicting how LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo will pick rosters – CBS Sports
- NBA All-Star Game Mock Draft: Predicting how LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo will pick rosters CBS Sports
- “He better pick me!” – Jrue Holiday has a clear message for Giannis Antetokounmpo ahead of the All-Star game Sports Illustrated
- Pacers’ Haliburton drafted to Team LeBron 8 Points, 9 Seconds
- 2023 NBA All-Star Game: Live updates, draft results as LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo square off CBS Sports
- 2023 NBA All-Star Mock Draft: Team LeBron James vs. Team Giannis Antetokounmpo Bleacher Report
- View Full Coverage on Google News
2023 NBA All-Star Game Mock Draft: Predicting how LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo pick rosters on Sunday – CBS Sports
- 2023 NBA All-Star Game Mock Draft: Predicting how LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo pick rosters on Sunday CBS Sports
- 2023 NBA All-Star Mock Draft: Team LeBron James vs. Team Giannis Antetokounmpo Bleacher Report
- NBA All-Star Game best bets: Best player props for NBA All-Star Game Yardbarker
- 2023 NBA All-Star Game Mock Draft: Predicting how LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo fill out the rosters CBS Sports
- Who has the most All-Star selections in NBA history? Where LeBron James ranks on all-time list Sporting News
- View Full Coverage on Google News
Influenza hospitalizations at highest level in ten years, predicting a severe U.S. flu season
On November 4, 2022, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published their weekly Influenza Surveillance Report for Week 43 (October 23, 2022, to October 29, 2022). With a cumulative hospitalization rate of 2.9/100,000 cases, which amounted to a total of 4,326 patients hospitalized during Week 43, influenza infection and hospitalization rates continue to increase at an alarmingly fast and early rate this year.
Image Credit: ESB Professional / Shutterstock.com
Early and high flu hospitalization rates
As of the publication of this report, over 1.6 million flu cases were reported in the U.S. for the 2022-2023 influenza season. Of these cases, 13,000 patients have required hospitalization and 730 people have died from the flu.
Some of the most affected regions of the U.S. include Southeast and South-Central states such as South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Mississippi, Texas, North Carolina, Alabama, and Virginia. Maryland, New York City, and Washington D.C. are also reporting high levels of influenza-like illnesses at rates that are significantly higher than those reported at the same time last year.
We’re seeing the highest hospitalization rates going back a decade.”
The threat of a ‘triple-demic’
Like the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which has also been infecting an increasing number of children at an unseasonably early rate as compared to previous years, influenza cases remained relatively placid throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This is largely because lockdowns and other preventative measures that were implemented throughout the pandemic prevented many from being exposed to these and other respiratory viruses.
In addition to the already high rates of RSV and flu, COVID-19 cases are also expected to surge this year as a result of the transition of more people indoors and the continual emergence of new escape variants of the causative severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).
Taken together, the circulation of these three viruses this season may lead to a ‘triple-demic,’ which will likely increase the burden on already strained healthcare systems. Despite the added pressure of these new hospitalizations in some states, adequate supplies of personal protective equipment (PPE) and ventilators remain available for their immediate use.
How to protect yourself this winter
The U.S. CDC recommends that all people over the age of six months get vaccinated against both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses.
Current evidence suggests that the influenza vaccine for this year comprises influenza A(H3N2) viruses that are genetically and antigenically similar to currently circulating strains, thus indicating that these vaccines should offer sufficient protection against severe disease and/or infection. An increasing number of influenza A(H1N1) viruses, which are also included in the yearly influenza vaccine, have also been reported nationally.
Similarly, a new COVID-19 bivalent messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccine booster dose has been approved for use in anyone over the age of five in the U.S. This booster vaccine dose appears to offer protection against severe disease following infection with both the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain, as well as the currently dominant Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants.
Despite the availability of these vaccines, the uptake this year has been relatively low. In fact, about five million fewer flu vaccine doses have been administered so far this year as compared to the same time last year in the U.S. Similarly, as of October 12, 2022, only about 11.5 million Americans had received the updated COVID-19 booster dose.
In addition to the importance of vaccination against both the flu and SARS-CoV-2, people should also continue to practice good hygiene including frequent handwashing, covering coughs and sneezes, staying home when sick, and avoiding close contact with symptomatic individuals.
Certain antiviral medications are also available to treat patients with severe illness following infection with either of these viruses. Currently, the CDC recommends that anyone with confirmed or suspected influenza infection who is at a higher risk for complications and/or is hospitalized to be immediately administered influenza antivirals. Some of the most common antivirals that may be used to treat influenza infection in the U.S. include oseltamivir or baloxavir.
Similar recommendations have been given for treating patients with suspected or confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who are at an increased risk for severe illness and meet current eligibility requirements to receive these agents. Currently, ritonavir and remdesivir have been successfully used to ameliorate mild to moderate COVID-19 in at-risk patient populations.
Aaron Judge contract: Predicting what kind of deal Yankees star will get in free agency after historic 2022
It would be difficult to have a better contract year than Aaron Judge. The New York Yankees star and AL MVP frontrunner is putting the finishing touches on a historic season, one that has him chasing a Triple Crown as well as Roger Maris’ American League single-season home run record, and he’s doing it right before free agency. Judge has set himself up for a massive, massive payday.
“Very few people get this opportunity to talk extension. Me getting this opportunity is something special and I appreciate the Yankees wanting to do that,” Judge said after rejecting a seven-year, $213.5 million extension in spring training. “But I don’t mind going into free agency … At the end of this year, I’ll talk to 30 teams. The Yankees will be one of those teams.”
We know the Yankees offered seven years and $213.5 million because GM Brian Cashman took the unusual step of announcing the offer terms during a press conference. Judge didn’t seem to appreciate that — “That’s something I felt like was private between my team and the Yankees,” he said — and he sought 9-10 years at $36 million per year, according to the New York Post.
The Yankees made a reasonable offer in spring training and now, nearly six months later, Judge has done what once seemed impossible: he’s earned himself more money. Teams pay for future performance, not past performance, though Judge has raised his perceived ceiling this year. No longer is he capable of “just” MVP-caliber seasons. He’s capable of historic greatness.
“We think Aaron Judge is an all-time Yankee. We think he’s a great player, beyond a great player. We think he’s a great person. That’s why we offered him the highest position player contract in the history of the Yankees,” Yankees president Randy Levine said earlier this month. “I admire him that he went out and took this upon his shoulders and we’ll sit down with him and hopefully figure it out. I think there’s no question we want him back and no question we value him.”
What has Judge’s season done for his earning potential? Well, a lot. We know that much. Let’s try to figure out what Judge’s next contract could look like after the season he’s having.
The extension offer, in context
The Yankees did not pull seven years and $213.5 million out of thin air. The extension would have begun in 2023 and the $30.5 million average annual value would have been the second richest ever for an outfielder, just above Mookie Betts and well below Mike Trout. Here are the richest outfield contracts in history:
|
1. Mike Trout, Angels: $426.5 million |
1. Mike Trout, Angels: $35.54 million |
|
2. Mookie Betts, Dodgers: $365 million |
2. Mookie Betts, Dodgers: $30.42 million |
|
3. Bryce Harper, Phillies: $330 million |
3. Yoenis Cespedes, Mets: $27.5 million |
|
4. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins: $325 million |
4. Kris Bryant, Rockies: $26 million |
|
5. Christian Yelich, Brewers: $215 million |
5. Bryce Harper, Phillies: $25.38 million |
The Yankees and Judge nearly went to an arbitration hearing this year (the two sides settled on a $19 million salary, the midpoint of their $21 million and $17 million filing figures) and, according to the New York Post, the Yankees were willing to give Judge the $21 million salary he sought in 2022 as part of the extension. The total package was eight years and $234.5 million.
All told, the Yankees offered to make Judge the second-highest-paid outfielder ever in terms of annual salary, and also give him the fifth-largest guarantee ever given to an outfielder. That said, neither the annual value nor the total guarantee would have been the richest in franchise history. Those belong to Gerrit Cole ($36 million annually and $324 million total). Also, Judge would have beaten Alex Rodriguez’s 2008-17 contract in annual salary ($27.5 million) but not total guarantee ($275 million).
So, the Yankees did offer to make Judge one of the highest-paid outfielders in baseball, but they stopped short of making him the highest-paid Yankee, either on an annual basis or in terms of total dollars. He would have still been looking up at Cole despite being a homegrown superstar.
Contract length
Two things hold back Judge’s earning potential: his age and his injury history. Judge will turn 31 shortly after Opening Day 2023, so, in all likelihood, his next contract will buy decline years in bulk. That’s usually how it goes with long-term deals. Teams accept the bad years at the end for the elite years up front, and Judge is the best hitter in the sport right now.
As for the durability concerns, a variety of injuries limited Judge to 242 of 384 possible regular season games from 2018-20, or 63 percent. But aside from a 10-day COVID list stint last August, Judge has been perfectly healthy the last two years, so those injury concerns are pretty far back in the rear-view mirror. The most recent information is a dominant player who posts everyday.
The Yankees know Judge and his medicals better than anyone. They evaluated his age and injury history, and were still comfortable signing him through his age-37 season. And that’s the number to focus on when examining contract length, the player’s age. Here’s how long several star players with long-term contracts are signed:
Julio Rodríguez’s new contract potentially ties him to the Mariners through age 38. Juan Soto rejected an extension that would have locked him up through age 38. That looks like the magic number: 38. That’s the age the best of the best, the game’s truly elite players (Betts, Trout, etc.), are either signed through or are expected to be signed through.
The Yankees offered Judge a seven-year contract covering his age 31-37 seasons and, frankly, the Yankees would probably get off easy if all they have to do is tack on one extra year to loop in his age 38 season. Given the season he’s having, Judge has all the leverage he needs to request a contract that takes him through age 39, similar to Betts.
Similar star players signed contracts through their age 38-39 season either as free agents, or when they were very close to free agency. Even though he’ll play most of 2023 at age 31, that gives Judge and his representatives enough justification to seek at least an eight-year deal this winter taking him through 38, if not a ninth year through age 39.
Average annual value
Mets owner Steve Cohen and Max Scherzer did Judge (and all players, really) a huge favor by raising the average annual value bar so much this past offseason. Here are baseball’s richest contracts in terms of average annual salary:
- Max Scherzer, Mets: $43.33 million
- Gerrit Cole, Yankees: $36 million
- Mike Trout, Angels: $35.54 million
- Carlos Correa, Twins: $35.1 million
- Stephen Strasburg, Nationals: $35 million
- Anthony Rendon, Angels: $35 million
Just like that, the salary for elite players jumped from $35 million or so per year to $40-plus million per year. Scherzer received that record-shattering $43.33 million annual salary as part of a three-year deal, but eventually someone is going to get $40 million per year on a long-term contract. Why not Judge? He’s as good a candidate as anyone, especially if wins he wins the Triple Crown and/or sets a new AL single-season home run record
At this point it’s hard to imagine Judge signing for less than Cole’s $36 million per year. The precedent has been set for a star player getting $40-plus million per season and Judge seeking that would not be unreasonable. It may not happen, but his camp throwing that number out there during contract talks would not be outlandish. That is now the going rate for best in the league players.
Judge’s salary scale is no longer dependent on other outfielders. He’s earned the right to have his salary based on what the sport’s other great players are making, regardless of position. That means Scherzer and Cole are benchmarks, Correa and Rendon too. Judge can point to those Correa and Rendon and say I’m better than them, so pay me more.
Marquee value
This is difficult to quantify as outsiders but it is exists, and it works both ways. The Yankees derive value from Judge beyond his on-field contributions. He puts butts in the seats, drives television ratings, sells merchandise, the works. The Yankees will have paid Judge about $35 million in salary by time this season ends and he has generated multitudes more in revenue for the franchise.
At the same time, being a Yankee helps Judge. It equals endorsement opportunities (Judge had more endorsement deals than any other player in 2021) and all sorts of other benefits that come with being a star athlete in New York. The New York market comes with benefits that just don’t exist anywhere. With all due respect, a star Yankee is more famous than a star anything else in baseball.
The Yankees baked Judge’s marquee value into the cake when making their extension offer and they’ll do it again after the season, and Judge will consider it while fielding calls. It could make financial sense to take, say, $1 million less per year to remain with the Yankees than join another team just because the off-field opportunities are so great. Marquee value is a major consideration.
An opt-out clause
The Yankees popularized the opt-out clause years ago, when they gave CC Sabathia an opt out three years into his initial seven-year, $161 million deal with the team. Cashman said they included the opt out to give Sabathia peace of mind, that if he didn’t enjoy his time in New York, he could leave (Sabathia later leveraged that opt out into an extension). Since then opt outs have become commonplace. If you want a premier free agent, you’ll probably have to give him an opt out.
An opt out is certainly possible with Judge, though his age makes it less appealing to him and lowers its value. Give Judge an opt out, say, two years into his next contract, and he would go back into free agency prior to his age-33 season. Players rarely get paid big at that age. Judge could be the exception, but chances whatever remains on his next contract will be more lucrative than any new money he could get at age 33.
For that reason, an opt out is an easy concession to make for interested teams. If Judge wants the ability to re-enter free agency at age 33 or 34 (or later), then let him. The market is unkind to players that age (JD Martinez was very productive from 2018-21 and he still passed on multiple opt outs) and it might even serve as an escape hatch to avoid his deep decline years.
The X-factor
The X-factor is free agency itself, which is unpredictable. You can look at contract projections and predictions until you’re blue in the face. At the end of the day, players take the best offer more often than not. They don’t sign the contract you get when you average out all the projections. They take the outlier deal, the one that is larger than the rest.
And to get that outlier contract offer, all it takes is one desperate general manager and/or owner. The best recent example of this is Robinson Canó. The Mariners, so desperate to return to the postseason, offered Canó a 10-year deal worth $240 million in 2013. The Yankees had the next best offer. It was seven years and $175 million. The outlier contract won the bidding war.
The Angels are up for sale and who’s the say the next owner won’t want to make a big splash? The Nationals are for sale too. Spending huge on Judge so soon after trading Soto (and given the state of the team) may seen unwise, but who knows? The next owner could want to grab headlines the way the Padres did in 2015, under their new ownership.
We can safely assume Judge is looking for the largest contract possible and that he won’t take a Correa-esque short-term contract that kicks the can down the road another year. It’s hard to imagine Judge raising his free agent stock next year. This is almost certainly his best chance at a monster payday, so come in with an outlier offer, and he can be yours.
The bottom line is once Judge hits the market and actually becomes a free agent, the chances he returns to the Yankees go down. At that point any team can throw its hat in the ring and, at minimum, force the Yankees to up their offer. And Judge seems willing to play the game. He didn’t dismiss signing with the Red Sox recently and I’m sure we’ll hear him connected to the Mets soon after free agency begins. All bets are off once Judge is a free agent. If Freddie Freeman can leave the Braves, Judge can absolutely leave the Yankees.
So what’s it going to take?
The Yankees offered seven years and $30.5 million per season covering 2023-29. Now it appears eight years and $37 million per season covering 2023-30 ($296 million total) could be what it’ll take just to get your foot in the door to discuss a contract. That takes Judge through his age-38 season, the same as Harper and Trout, and the $37 million annual salary tops Cole as the second highest ever.
A hometown discount is always possible, though passing up $213.5 million in spring training is pretty strong evidence Judge wants to maximize his earning potential, and is willing to bet on himself. Judge is so close to free agency now that why wouldn’t he test the market and see what’s out there? There’s no good reason not to shop around, even if the plan (hope) is to ultimately remain in New York.
“His interest, as he’s conveyed to me, is he doesn’t want to be anywhere else,” Cashman said in spring training. “But at the same time, he knows there are no guarantees.”
Judge benefits from being a Yankee, no doubt, but the Yankees need Judge more than Judge needs the Yankees. He is far and away their best player on the field as well as their biggest draw off the field. The total package is irreplaceable. There will be no other player available this winter (as a free agent, anyway) who produces so much positive value to the organization.
When the Yankees really want a player, they get him. They offered Cole a seven-year deal three years ago, and when the Angels and Dodgers came in with seven-year offers, they upped it to eight. And when the Angels and Dodgers put eight years on the table, the Yankees went to nine. My hunch is they would’ve gone to 10 years to get Cole, if that’s what it took. Point is, when the Yankees have their heart set on a player, they do what it takes to get him, and all indications are they want to keep Judge.
Big-market clubs like the Cubs, Mets, and Red Sox figure to at least check in on Judge, potentially giving him the leverage to push the Yankees to a ninth year. Unless he does something unexpected like take a high dollar short-term deal, I don’t think $40 million per year will happen, but again, free agency is unpredictable. Nine years and $38 million per year, or $342 million total, is where this bidding war may end up. Judge has done that much to raise his free agent stock.
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Predicting NBA 2K23 Player Ratings That Will Rise and Slide the Most | News, Scores, Highlights, Stats, and Rumors
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James Harden (Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
With NBA 2K23 set to release on September 9, gamers and basketball fans all over the world are already clamoring for individual player ratings.
Before they start rolling in, we’ll predict who’ll have the biggest change from their final mark on 2K22.
It’s an exercise that can be a little tricky, since modern gaming allows for steady updates throughout the season, but there’s still a handful of ratings that feel like safe bets to change.
This isn’t necessarily a recommendation of what should happen, but rather, what will happen.
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Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images
Last 2K22 Rating: 81
Jalen Brunson is headed to the mecca of basketball, where he’ll almost certainly be the New York Knicks’ best player (since they didn’t trade for Donovan Mitchell).
As of the most recent update, RJ Barrett was an 85. Expecting Brunson to get to there seems like a relatively easy call.
And the jump wouldn’t be without merit, either.
During the regular season, Brunson averaged 23.0 points and 7.7 assists per 75 possessions when Luka Doncic was off the floor. Then, in the playoffs, he put up 21.6 points in 34.9 minutes overall.
Scoring average seems to have a pretty good hold on the minds of the ratings makers, and predicting that he’ll be in the high teens or low 20s is plenty reasonable.
Something in the 85-86 range feels about right.
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Ron Hoskins/NBAE via Getty Images
Last NBA 2K22 Rating: 82
T.J. Warren didn’t play a single game in 2021-22. He managed just four appearances in 2020-21.
That he maintained a rating in the 80s is either an indictment on the developers or an awful lot of faith in his bubble run and nearly two-year-long injury recovery.
In six bubble games prior to the 2020 playoffs, Warren averaged 31.0 points and 3.7 threes while shooting 57.8 percent from the field and 52.4 percent from three.
It was a heck of a run, but it probably doesn’t warrant his staying power at 82.
At this point, there’s really no way to know what kind of player Warren is. And it’s fair to wonder if the kind of foot injuries that could cause him to miss this much time could have a long-term effect on him.
With an offseason to dive into all the ratings, the developers will surely catch this one and slide him down to the 70s.
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Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images
Last NBA 2K22 Rating: 82
Concocting the ratings for this game always requires an element of prognostication. The developers are essentially predicting how players will perform over the next nine or 10 months. It’s even more of a shot in the dark for rookies and second-year players.
But there’s reason to believe a jump is coming for Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes.
After averaging 15.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.1 steals and 0.7 blocks in 2021-22, Barnes is forecast to total 7.8 wins above replacement by FiveThirtyEight’s projection system. Only 18 players in the league are projected to have more.
Of course, 2K doesn’t base its ratings on FiveThirtyEight, but Barnes’ multipositional defense, point forward abilities and high-end slashing are worth a two- or three-point bump for 2K23.
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Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images
Last NBA 2K22 Rating: 82
Kyle Lowry is entering his age-36 campaign after averaging 13.4 points this past season. It was his lowest scoring average since 2012-13.
Given his age and injury history, it’s fair to expect the decline to continue.
On top of missing 19 regular-season and eight playoff games in 2021-22, Lowry averaged just 52 appearances over the course of the two prior years.
Now, durability doesn’t seem to weigh too heavily on overall rating in the game, but compounding injuries can slow a player down.
And as he nears his 40s, Lowry’s rating should probably be in the 70s.
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Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images
Last NBA 2K22 Rating: 84
This is one of those tricky ones.
In-season updates pulled Desmond Bane up to an 84, which is well above average for the game’s 2-guards. It still just doesn’t feel quite high enough.
Bane is tied for 23rd in the league in the aforementioned FiveThirtyEight projections, and he’s one of the most dangerous floor-spacers in the NBA.
Last season, he averaged 3.0 threes and shot 43.6 percent from deep. There are only seven other players in league history who matched or exceeded both marks in a single season: Stephen Curry (four times), Klay Thompson (twice), Bogdan Bogdanovic, Joe Harris, JJ Redick, Duncan Robinson and Peja Stojakovic.
That, in concert with Bane’s switchable defensive ability and improving playmaking, should make him one of the best shooting guards in 2K23.
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Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images
Last NBA 2K22 Rating: 92
Again, this is more of a prediction of what will happen rather than what should happen.
Much of the narrative surrounding James Harden’s demise felt overblown. Yes, he looked a bit slower than he did during his best days with the Houston Rockets, but Harden still averaged 21.0 points and 10.5 assists as a Philadelphia 76er last season. He dropped to 18.6 and 8.6 in the playoffs, but the team was still significantly better when he played.
Having said all that, narratives can be tough to overcome. And expecting the slow-down to intensify in his age-33 season isn’t exactly disrespectful. He’s officially post-prime. This happens to everyone.
Harden can still be one of the game’s better passers and point guards. He can still help the Sixers, but his days of being in the 90s on 2K may be behind him.
Predicting how soon the universe could collapse if dark energy has quintessence
A trio of astrophysicists, two from Princeton, the other from New York University, has calculated estimations on how soon the universe could collapse if theories regarding dark energy as having quintessence are correct. In their paper published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Cosmin Andrei, Anna Ijjas, and Paul Steinhardt suggest it could be as soon as 100 million years from now.
Over the past several decades researchers have found evidence of the universe expanding—distant objects are growing farther apart over time. Albert Einstein predicted this would be the case and suggested that the force pushing everything in the universe apart is something called dark energy. He also suggested that its force was constant, which would mean that the universe would expand forever. Since that time, others have suggested that maybe dark energy, if indeed it really exists, may not be a constant after all. And if that were the case, perhaps someday the universe would slow and perhaps even stop expanding, and/or reverse itself, allowing the universe to contract until it was smooshed down into a single entity. Proponents of such a theory describe dark energy as having a dynamic field they call quintessence—a property that would allow for expansion or contraction of the universe. And by studying evidence collected about the known universe, they have found the theory to be just as sound as the one that proposes dark energy as a constant.
In this new effort, the research trio wondered how long it might take the universe to slow down, stop, begin contracting, and eventually reach a single point if dark energy has quintessence. To envision such an idea, they built a model of the universe—one that used actual data describing features of the known universe. It showed them that if the idea of quintessence is true, then the universe could already be slowing its acceleration. It also showed that it could slow all the way to a standstill in approximately 65 million years—and could start contracting as soon as 100 million years from now. The theory, like the one that suggests dark energy is a constant, cannot be proven as there is no way to test it. Astrophysicists have to rely on signals coming from light years away, which suggests that if the universe is currently contracting, we will not be able to measure it for millions of years.
New study sows doubt about the composition of 70 percent of our universe
More information:
Cosmin Andrei et al, Rapidly descending dark energy and the end of cosmic expansion, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2022). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2200539119
Cosmin Andrei et al, Rapidly descending dark energy and the end of cosmic expansion, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2022). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2200539119
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Most Americans have now had Covid-19 — but experts are predicting the next surge
For many of those who are vaccinated or were previously infected, learning of a close contact with the disease is less frightening than frustrating.
Testing is more and more normal. Masks are less and less visible.
Kids in the US who are between 6 months and 5 years old could be eligible for vaccines by June, a huge relief to many parents. Many others might not get their small children vaccinated. Just over a third of children ages 5-11 are fully vaccinated.
In the next few weeks, the US is likely to record its 1 millionth reported Covid-19 death, a number that is so staggering it seems unbelievable.
There is an uptick in cases in the US and hospitalizations are up 10% since last week. Hopefully the rate of deaths continues to fall.
Most Americans have had Covid-19
According to data through February released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, nearly 60% of adults and 75% of children have antibodies indicating that they’ve been infected with Covid-19.
The data comes from an ongoing study of blood samples sent to commercial laboratories across the US.
At the beginning of December, an estimated 34% of Americans had antibodies, which suggests the Omicron variant infected a quarter of the population.
We can assume Covid-19 will surge back
The warning from Dr. Deborah Birx — the White House Coronavirus Response Task Force coordinator during the Trump era, who is out with a new book — is that we can expect surges in cases in the South in the summer and in the North in the winter.
During an appearance on CBS News on Sunday, Birx pointed to a new rise in Covid-19 cases in South Africa.
“Each of these surges are about four to six months apart. That tells me that natural immunity wanes enough in the general population after four to six months — that a significant surge is going to occur again,” Birx said.
Public health officials need to prepare the public, she said, and make sure everyone knows that immunity, from infection or vaccination, wanes over time.
You have to go beyond ‘fully vaccinated’ to be ‘up to date’
Even as public health officials push most people to get booster shots months after vaccination, they have not updated the definition of “fully vaccinated” to include a booster.
While more than three-quarters of the country has received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, less than one-third has received a booster.
For this reason, officials have moved away from that term — “fully vaccinated” — and instead encourage people to stay “up to date,” which means getting a booster when eligible.
According to the CDC’s data, these are the vaccination numbers:
- 77.6% of Americans have received at least one dose — nearly 258 million people.
- 66.2% have received the second dose and are considered “fully vaccinated” according to the CDC.
- 45.8% of those who are fully vaccinated have received their first booster doses. (Per CNN’s metrics, a much smaller percentage — about 30% — of the total population has received a booster.)
More boosters may be required. In March, the CDC authorized a second booster dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines for people over 50 who are four months past their first booster doses.
The most durable immunity comes for people who are up to date on their vaccines and have been previously infected.
Many doctors still say to stay up to date on vaccines as they are authorized by the US Food and Drug Administration.
“We still need to push forward getting those vaccines done to give the highest level of protection we possibly can,” Dr. Anand Swaminathan, an emergency medicine physician, said on CNN over the weekend.
He argued that we still don’t know a lot about the disease and that cases of long Covid are worth trying to avoid.
What exactly is long Covid?
A must-read new CNN report by Jacqueline Howard looks at Linda Timmer, 64, who didn’t display any traditional Covid-19 symptoms and was not aware of having been exposed to the coronavirus when she tested positive in August 2020.
Her case of long Covid pushed her into an early retirement and to move closer to family — and 20 months later, she still has debilitating symptoms.
Howard also talked to Nick Guthe, whose wife, Heidi Ferrer, died by suicide after long Covid made life excruciating.
It’s misunderstood and hard to diagnose, but symptoms can drag on for months.
Transitioning to what?
Many states are dialing back their Covid-19 data tracking efforts from daily to weekly reports, CNN’s Deidre McPhillips wrote last week, which could affect how public health officials are able to gauge and predict outbreaks.
In the same report, McPhillips noted the US is transitioning from the pandemic phase of the Covid-19 era, but there’s disagreement on what the US is transitioning to.
She wrote: The rise of the BA.2 subvariant and the general unpredictability of the coronavirus leave the future of the pandemic — and the resources needed to fight it — largely unknown.
“Things are not stable right now,” said William Hanage, an epidemiologist and associate professor at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “Even if I don’t reckon we are going to see [another] large surge, weekly reporting means that if I am wrong, we would learn about it later and so be able to do less about it.”
Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser, had to recalibrate comments he had made last week when he said the US is nearly out of the pandemic.
“We’re not over the pandemic. Don’t let anybody get the misinterpretation that the pandemic is over, but what we are in is a different phase of the pandemic,” Fauci said. “A phase that’s a transition phase, hopefully headed toward more of a control where you can actually get back to some form of normality without total disruption of society, economically, socially, school-wise, etc.”
NFL Power Rankings 2022 – Post-free agency 1-32 poll, plus predicting next offseason move for each team
With the initial wave of free agency having crested, it’s time for another edition of the NFL Power Rankings. It’s also time to look forward to the next chapter of the offseason.
Sure, this offseason has had a lot to talk about so far, from quarterback trades (Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson and Matt Ryan were major parts of a chaotic signal-caller carousel), trades of other star players (Davante Adams) and big-ticket free-agent signings (too many to mention). But there’s still more important work to be done between now and when training camps start in late July.
With that in mind, we asked our group of NFL Nation reporters to pick the next move the teams they cover need to make this offseason. The responses below run the gamut, from focusing on building through the draft (or rebuilding, as is the case for the Ryan-less Atlanta Falcons and the Watson-less Houston Texans), pulling off expected moves that have yet to be made (where will Jimmy Garoppolo end up?) or taking advantage of the next wave of free agency to fill in their rosters.
How we rank: Our power panel — a group of more than 80 writers, editors and TV personalities — evaluated how teams stack up throughout the season.
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LV | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Way-too-early ranking: 2
Next offseason move: Find help at cornerback
The Bills could be without both of last year’s starting cornerbacks for Week 1, with Tre’Davious White rehabbing a torn ACL and Levi Wallace leaving for the Steelers in free agency. Entering his third season, Dane Jackson should have an opportunity to compete for the starting role opposite White, but the depth at the position is limited, especially for what should be a top defense in the NFL. Adding a veteran corner through free agency and investing in the position at the draft makes sense for Buffalo. — Alaina Getzenberg
Way-too-early ranking: 3
Next offseason move: Get a new deal done with Aaron Donald
General manager Les Snead said recently that Donald — who was noncommittal after the Rams’ Super Bowl victory about continuing his Hall of Fame career — has told the team he’d like to keep playing. The two sides have talked about an extension, per Snead, who described that situation as “in progress.” While the Rams have the rest of the offseason to extend Donald, the prospect of lowering his scheduled cap charge of $26.75 million gives them incentive to do it sooner rather than later. They’ve got around $10 million in cap space right now and still want to re-sign Odell Beckham Jr. while still leaving some money for other offseason expenses. — Brady Henderson
1:33
Marcus Spears outlines why it won’t be an easy path to the playoffs for the Chiefs.
Way-too-early ranking: 1
Next offseason move: Acquire an edge pass-rusher
The Chiefs did retain Frank Clark on a reduced contract, but still need to provide more pass-rush help for Chris Jones. Melvin Ingram III filled the role nicely last year, but he’s a free agent. The Chiefs could re-sign him — otherwise, they’ll need to make the position a priority in the draft to bolster a unit that finished 29th in the NFL in sacks. — Adam Teicher
Way-too-early ranking: 14
Next offseason move: Address interior pass rush
A goal for the Bucs this offseason was to get a quicker, more explosive interior pass rush. Granted, they extended Vita Vea at the end of the season, but whom will he be paired up with as Ndamukong Suh remains unsigned? They need to choose whether to bring him back, sign another free agent or reload with a high draft pick. — Jenna Laine
Way-too-early ranking: 5
Next offseason move: Find some depth
Cincinnati did all the hard work during the early portion of free agency. The Bengals revamped their offensive line, added tight end Hayden Hurst and re-signed cornerback Eli Apple and defensive tackle B.J. Hill, two reasons the defense was so good in 2021. Now, it’s about finding some quality depth. Among the Bengals’ needs: WR, CB, FS and SS. If Cincinnati can find those guys, the roster — fresh off a Super Bowl appearance — will be in much better shape than it was in 2021. — Ben Baby
1:00
Dan Orlovsky outlines why he sees the Packers drafting replacements for Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Way-too-early ranking: 4
Next offseason move: Replace Davante Adams
OK, so there’s probably little or no chance they can replace the All-Pro receiver with someone who can come close to matching what Adams did. No one is going to walk through the doors at Lambeau Field and have the connection Adams had with Aaron Rodgers. But they still need help, which was highlighted more by the loss of Marquez Valdes-Scantling to the Chiefs. In fact, with the collection of Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Amari Rodgers and others, an argument could be made that the Packers don’t even have a top-tier No. 2. — Rob Demovsky
Way-too-early ranking: 11
Next offseason move: Settle on a right tackle
The Bryan Bulaga experiment didn’t work out, as the veteran played in just 11 games over two injury-marred seasons after signing that three-year, $30 million deal two years ago and then getting cut this month. So do they rely on Storm Norton? Trey Pipkins III? Justin Herbert is one of the NFL’s young star QBs, but he needs protection. Especially in a division where every team has stocked up on elite pass-rushers. — Paul Gutierrez
Way-too-early ranking: 6
Next offseason move: Trade Jimmy Garoppolo
The Niners thus far have been unable to unload Garoppolo, in part because other, bigger quarterback dominoes set off a chain of events that has limited interest, and also because of a right shoulder surgery that makes acquiring him a riskier proposition. But this still needs to happen for all parties involved. The Niners could use the $25.55 million in cap space they’d create by trading him to sign their draft class and work out extensions for end Nick Bosa and receiver Deebo Samuel, while also clearing the decks for Trey Lance. This could take some time, but Garoppolo could use the fresh start, also. — Nick Wagoner
Way-too-early ranking: 7
Next offseason move: Help on the offensive line
The Cowboys released right tackle La’el Collins, who joined the Bengals. They did not try to retain left guard Connor Williams, who joined the Dolphins. While they believe in Terence Steele as their right tackle, they don’t have the same level of confidence in Connor McGovern. They have to find some veteran help for the interior of the offensive line (center and guard) and potentially a swing tackle because last year’s fourth-round pick, Josh Ball, did not play as a rookie because of an ankle injury. Without finding that help, the Cowboys are boxing themselves into having to draft a couple of offensive linemen early and needing them to perform their first season. — Todd Archer
Way-too-early ranking: 21
Next offseason move: Secure more help in the secondary
The Broncos signed cornerback K’Waun Williams, who will get the first look as the team’s nickel cornerback, but they entered free agency with three cornerbacks who started games last season — Bryce Callahan, Kyle Fuller and Nate Hairston — who were unrestricted free agents, as was safety Kareem Jackson. Williams does mitigate some of that with his versatility as a defender in the run game, in coverage as well as his work as a spot pass-rusher. But the Broncos still need to do some work there to build depth, and if Caden Sterns isn’t going to inherit Jackson’s safety spot, they need to bring back Jackson or someone like him. — Jeff Legwold
2:22
Dianna Russini is baffled by Bart Scott’s assertion that the Chiefs and Titans are not top-five AFC teams.
Way-too-early ranking: 8
Next offseason move: Shore up the offensive line
The offensive line lost two starters from last season. Not placing a tender on restricted free agent David Quessenberry created a void at right tackle. The Titans also have a hole to fill at left guard after releasing Rodger Saffold III to clear up cap space. Second-year offensive lineman Dillon Radunz figures to start at one of the positions. Beyond Radunz, there aren’t many proven options. Aaron Brewer has filled in at left guard in the past. Another possibility is free-agent addition Jamarco Jones, who has seven career starts. Tennessee will likely address the offensive line with an early draft pick. — Turron Davenport
Way-too-early ranking: 12
Next offseason move: Add a pass-rusher
Finding a proven pass-rusher remains a huge need since Za’Darius Smith backed out of his four-year, $35 million deal on March 17 and then signed with the Vikings. The Ravens’ current top two outside linebackers — Odafe Oweh and Tyus Bowser — are coming off offseason surgeries and have a combined 22.5 career sacks. It’s been a void in Baltimore for a while; the team hasn’t had a player reach double-digit sacks in a season since Terrell Suggs in 2017. The Ravens have to land an edge rusher who can get to the likes of Deshaun Watson and Joe Burrow. — Jamison Hensley
Way-too-early ranking: 15
Next offseason move: Address the offensive line
Yeah, it’s great and all that Las Vegas added the best receiver in the NFL (and Derek Carr’s college bestie) in Davante Adams. But if Carr has no time to find him downfield, what’s the point? Carr was sacked 40 times in 2021 and, as it stands now, it looks like the Raiders’ new regime is prepared to run it back with the same offensive line. Granted, Denzelle Good is coming back from a knee injury, but the Raiders aren’t done here, are they? — Paul Gutierrez
Way-too-early ranking: 13
Next offseason move: Get some receivers
The cupboard in the receiver room isn’t stocked. Veteran T.Y. Hilton is a free agent. Zach Pascal is now in Philadelphia. Parris Campbell hasn’t proved that he can stay healthy long enough to become a factor. That leaves Michael Pittman Jr. looking around for help at receiver. Adding pieces at receiver will not only help ease the transition to Indianapolis for new starter Matt Ryan, but it’ll also do wonders for the leading rusher in the NFL, Jonathan Taylor. — Mike Wells
Way-too-early ranking: 9
Next offseason move: Add a starting left guard
Nothing should be more important than protecting Mac Jones, and in turn opening holes for running backs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. Now there’s a major void at left guard after Ted Karras signed with the Bengals in free agency. In 2016, the Patriots drafted Joe Thuney in the third round and he was a plug-and-play starter from day one. Finding this year’s version of Thuney would be ideal in a draft that appears deep with interior linemen. — Mike Reiss
Way-too-early ranking: 16
Next offseason move: Re-sign Jadeveon Clowney
The one remaining glaring weakness on the Cleveland roster is a pass-rusher opposite of Myles Garrett. Jadeveon Clowney filled that role admirably last year, giving the Browns one of the top pass-rushing units in the league. Clowney has been looking around, with hopes of getting a big-money deal. The Browns need to convince him that Cleveland is where he needs to be after he shined there in 2021. — Jake Trotter
Way-too-early ranking: 17
Next offseason move: Get in the lab
Miami bolstered its offensive line and completely revamped its skill-position talent — highlighted by receiver Tyreek Hill, tackle Terron Armstead and running back Raheem Mostert. This should be one of the fastest teams in the NFL. Besides depth at linebacker, this roster is about as set as it’s going to be. All that’s left to do now is build chemistry and learn the playbook. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Way-too-early ranking: 10
Next offseason move: Get a No. 2 receiver
After letting Christian Kirk go in free agency and with A.J. Green still a free agent, the Cardinals don’t have a true No. 2 receiver to complement DeAndre Hopkins. Rondale Moore is capable, but he’s not a No. 2. Arizona let a number of receivers go by in free agency, but in order for Kliff Kingsbury’s offense to work, it needs a No. 2 who causes defenses to game-plan around him — and at the very least is able to make plays when Hopkins gets coverage rolled to him. — Josh Weinfuss
Way-too-early ranking: 19
Next offseason move: Bolster the secondary
With Rodney McLeod and Steven Nelson no longer under contract, the Eagles are still without a starting safety and starting cornerback for 2022. They took a swing at a couple of the top free-agent safeties, but were unable to land one. Instead, they brought back Anthony Harris on a one-year deal. While that helps fill out the secondary picture, it doesn’t complete it. Cornerback Darius Slay still needs a counterpart. The Eagles seem to like a few of the young CBs on the roster like Zech McPhearson, Tay Gowan and Kary Vincent Jr., but need to continue to add. They’ll look to the second wave of free agency and the draft — where they hold three first-round picks — to address those needs. — Tim McManus
Way-too-early ranking: 18
Next offseason move: Sign a starting safety
Minkah Fitzpatrick is one of the best safeties in the league, but he needs a running mate. The Steelers declined Terrell Edmunds’ fifth-year option, making him a free agent. He is still available after the first wave of free agency, but so is Tyrann Mathieu. But the Honey Badger doesn’t fit the mold of a Steelers free agent. At 29 years old, Mathieu is older than most of the Steelers’ free-agent signings, and he would probably command a higher-priced contract. — Brooke Pryor
0:53
Marcus Spears breaks down former Packers linebacker Za’Darius Smith signing with the Vikings.
Way-too-early ranking: 20
Next offseason move: Rebuild the secondary
At the moment, the Vikings are essentially down three starters from 2021. Cornerback Patrick Peterson and nickelback Mackensie Alexander are free agents, and safety Xavier Woods signed with the Panthers in free agency. It’s possible the Vikings will promote backup safety Camryn Bynum into a more prominent role, but they’ll also have to take into account that safety Harrison Smith is 33. The team hasn’t made a prominent addition to the secondary during free agency and will need to find more help in the draft. — Kevin Seifert
Way-too-early ranking: 22
Next offseason move: Add a top receiver
Heck, maybe even add two. The Saints plummeted to 32nd in the NFL in passing yards last season, largely because of major injuries to quarterback Jameis Winston, receiver Michael Thomas and the offensive line. Getting Thomas back from his ankle injury should provide a huge boost. But the Saints need to add at least one more premium pass-catcher in free agency or the draft, if not both. They should have some excellent options with the 18th pick. — Mike Triplett
Way-too-early ranking: 25
Next offseason move: Add a middle linebacker
Washington wants to use Cole Holcomb and Jamin Davis, last year’s first-round pick, on the outside and needs someone to fill the middle. While Holcomb can play there, the Commanders want someone who is a more natural fit, resulting in more decisiveness — but also allowing the other two to play where they’re more suited. The draft has several strong candidates. Washington also needs to find someone who can fill the Buffalo nickel — a hybrid linebacker/safety role — that Landon Collins played so well last season. Both spots are vital. — John Keim
Way-too-early ranking: 26
Next offseason move: Embrace the rebuild, but prioritize Justin Fields’ growth
The Bears have taken a prudent approach to free agency with Ryan Poles, as the first-year general manager hasn’t made any splashy signings. That patience could end up paying off, as Chicago could sign some veterans for cheap later this offseason, but the team needs to bring in at least one starting-caliber offensive tackle, another guard, a receiver and a corner. Year 2 of Fields’ career is the most important for his development and in showing Chicago whether it has a franchise quarterback or needs to start thinking about taking another swing at one in 2023. The only way to find that out is by giving Fields an adequate amount of support to succeed this season. — Courtney Cronin
Way-too-early ranking: 27
Next offseason move: Fix the offensive line
Signing Mark Glowinski to start at guard and adding Jon Feliciano at center isn’t anywhere near enough to fix a line that might need four new starters. The Giants still must find a high-end lineman. Of course, that is not likely to come through free agency. They never had the money this year to make that happen given their salary-cap crunch. So it’s on to the draft, where the Giants have the No. 5 and No. 7 overall picks and the options are plentiful. — Jordan Raanan
Way-too-early ranking: 23
Next offseason move: Find competition for Drew Lock
The Seahawks are higher on Lock than you might think and want to give him a shot to show he can be Russell Wilson’s long-term replacement. But they aren’t going to hand him the starting job. They want to re-sign Geno Smith to compete with Lock and could further add in April’s draft — though probably not with a first-round pick. Baker Mayfield is available, but the Seahawks don’t want to take on his $19 million salary. That’s a prohibitive cost for someone who would be competing for the QB job. Besides, they have to set aside a good chunk of their remaining cap space to extend DK Metcalf’s rookie contract, which will be pricey. — Brady Henderson
Way-too-early ranking: 32
Next offseason move: Add another pass-rusher
The Jaguars didn’t add a pass-rusher in free agency, so it has to be a priority in the draft. Josh Allen had his best season as a rookie (10.5 sacks in 2019) when he was playing with Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue. But since then, he has 10 sacks in the 24 games. Whether it’s Aidan Hutchinson or Kayvon Thibodeaux at No. 1 overall or another rusher in the second or third round, the Jaguars have to get Allen some help. — Michael DiRocco
1:54
Damien Woody and Dan Orlovsky agree Sam Darnold is the best option for the Panthers given the quarterbacks available.
Way-too-early ranking: 29
Next offseason move: Find a franchise quarterback
This really hasn’t changed since the offseason began. The Panthers made a run at trading for Deshaun Watson, but the Browns acquired him. With a weak group of free-agent quarterbacks, the focus should be on drafting a quarterback — whether it’s Liberty’s Malik Willis, Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett or Ole Miss’ Matt Corral. If Carolina is convinced any of them can be a long-term solution, then take a QB with the No. 6 pick and continue to build with a young player at a low cap number. Left tackle remains a concern, but the top two likely will be gone by the time the Panthers pick. — David Newton
Way-too-early ranking: 24
Next offseason move: Delineate a long-term plan
With Matt Ryan now in Indianapolis and Atlanta paying $62 million in dead money for 2022, almost everything the Falcons need to do has to be with a longer-term plan in mind. With the money they have left for this season, they need to figure out everything in more of a two-year window — including whether or not they pursue a quarterback in this draft or not. There are also bigger questions at receiver and pass-rusher, where massive holes remain. — Michael Rothstein
Way-too-early ranking: 28
Next offseason move: Add an edge rusher
Robert Saleh’s defense can’t function without a strong pass rush and needs another threat on the edge. Carl Lawson will return from an Achilles injury, but that’s not enough. The Jets signed Jacob Martin in free agency, but he is just a rotational piece. They flirted with Chandler Jones, but nothing came of it. Their last hope is the draft, so look for an edge player with the fourth or 10th overall pick. The names to watch are Travon Walker, Jermaine Johnson II and Kayvon Thibodeaux. — Rich Cimini
Way-too-early ranking: 30
Next offseason move: Draft a receiver
Yes, the Lions did address their deep-threat need in free agency by signing Pro Bowler DJ Chark Jr. to complement Josh Reynolds and Amon-Ra St. Brown, but they’re still taking a risk in projecting that Chark can actually thrive in that role. Detroit should still consider grabbing another strong receiver high in the draft, as it has three picks in the top 34. Lions receivers coach Antwaan Randle El enjoyed a successful NFL career as a player and is itching to develop a young prospect, much like he did with St. Brown, who was a fourth-round selection in 2021. — Eric Woodyard
Way-too-early ranking: 31
Next offseason move: Find a running back
The Texans signed Rex Burkhead to an extension at the end of last season and added Dare Ogunbowale in free agency, but they’re in need of an impact back — which is something they haven’t had in several seasons. The Texans’ best bet now looks to be adding to their backfield in the draft, although Houston has so many needs on its roster that it’s hard to pick just one spot to prioritize. — Sarah Barshop
Apple’s M2 chip: Predicting the power gains
When the first M1-based Macs were released in the fall of 2020, it’s no exaggeration to say they shook up the entire computer market. Apple took the basic architecture of the A14 (found in the iPhone 12), scaled it up to ultraportable laptop levels, and blew away the competition with what we called a “mind-boggling” improvement over the previous generation. It was fast, very fast, and provided shockingly good battery life. With the M1 Pro and M1 Max in 2021, Apple scaled the architecture up further to performance laptops (and presumably upcoming desktops), and again became the processor against which all others were compared.
The only chips that outperform the M1 Max are Intel’s Alder Lake processors, and then only with a bunch of caveats about a massive disparity in power consumption, only running full speed when plugged in, and leaning on a high-power Nvidia GPU.
So what does Apple do for an encore? With the M1 now almost a year and a half old, it’s time for its successor, which we’ll assume will be called the M2. While we never really know what Apple has up its sleeve until products are announced (as early as March or at WWDC in June or later this fall), but we’re going to take out best educated guess about what we can expect from the M2 (and we’ll throw in an M2 Max prediction, too).
M2 is to M1 as A15 is to A14
The M1 is based on the basic architecture of the A14, scaled up with double the number of high-performance CPU cores (four instead of two) and double the GPU cores (eight instead of four). It is, for lack of a better explanation, the “A14X” that otherwise would’ve been in the iPad Pro.
In trying to predict the M2’s features and performance, we will operate on the assumption that it will follow a similar pattern, only this time with the A15: the same architecture with twice the high-performance cores and GPU cores. Note that the A15 actually has five GPU cores, with the fifth one enabled only in the iPhone 13 Pro models. We’ll generate performance expectations with a doubling of that to 10 cores, which jibes with rumors about the M2’s configuration.
For the M2 Max, we assume the same scaling-up as from the M1 to M1 Max. The CPU cores will be swapped out for a 2-efficiency, 8-performance setup, and GPU cores will be quadrupled from the base M1 chip (for a total of 40).
Improved manufacturing process
Before we get to the numbers, we should mention that it is expected for the M2 to be manufactured on TSMC’s N4P process, which is an enhanced form of the 5nm process on which the A14 and M1 were manufactured. TSMC claims that it can run up to 11 percent faster at the same power, or use 22 percent less power at the same performance. It’s not really known if this will translate into higher clock speeds, better battery life, or a little bit of both. It all depends on Apple’s particular configuration, and battery life in particular is subject to a wide number of variables (like how power-efficient the display is, for example).
For our performance predictions here, we are not factoring in additional performance from manufacturing process improvements, as there is no way to realistically quantify what they might be. It is reasonable to expect that the figures provided here are probably a few percent lower than what Apple might squeeze out of the N4P process, and just as we saw greatly improved battery life in the A15-powered iPhone 13 phones, Apple may prioritize longevity in the MacBooks that use these chips.
M2 and M2 Max CPU estimates
We started by looking at how much faster the A15 is than the A14, which has a similar four-efficiency and two-performance CPU core configuration, but a number of architectural improvements. In all, the A15’s single-core performance is about 7 percent higher than the A14.
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The multi-core score is much higher, at 20 percent, despite the same core configuration. Apple likely made architectural improvements to improve the use of all cores at once, and the manufacturing process improvements may be able to maintain higher clock speeds when all cores are active.
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When we take the M1 and M1 Max scores and add that same performance boost, we get some impressive numbers. Single-core performance is likely to top 1,800 in Geekbench 5, which is on par with Intel’s upcoming Core i9 Alder Lake high-performance laptop chip.
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It’s the multi-core score that could get very interesting. Rumors say the M2 will have the same four-efficiency, four-performance layout as the M1, while the M2 Max sticks with four efficiency cores and eight performance cores like the M1 Max.
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That could generate scores just under 9,000 for the M2 (still not as fast as the M1 Max, thanks to that chip having eight high-performance cores). That’s a great score for ultraportable laptops like the MacBook Air. But a score well over 14,000 for the M2 Max would put it ahead of the Intel’s fastest Alder Lake Core i9, which has 14 cores (six performance and eight efficiency). And it’s likely that the M2 Max achieves those performance gains at a fraction of the power.
M2 and M2 Max graphics estimates
As with our CPU projections, we estimate M2 graphics performance by simply looking at the performance uplift from the A14 to the A15 (in the iPhone Pro models) and assuming the same uplift from the M1 to the M2. The A15 has 25 percent more GPU cores than the A14 (five instead of four), but the extra core is only enabled in the iPhone 13 Pro phones. Rumor has it that the M2 will go from a maximum of eight GPU cores to 10, and the M2 Max from 32 to 40, keeping this ratio intact.
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3DMark’s Sling Shot benchmark is a little dated, but still a reasonably useful measure of how well the GPU performs when running simpler, older graphics technologies. The A15 is 24 percent faster than the A14. You can chalk that up to having 25 percent more cores along with some architectural improvements.
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Unfortunately, the Sling Shot test is only available for mobile platforms. That means that we can’t test it on the M1 Max, as that chip is only available in MacBooks. But as the M1 can be found in the iPad Pro, we can run this useful but somewhat aging benchmark on the M1 and surmise that we might see a score over 10,000 with the M2, which would readily put any other modern tablet to shame.
A more modern cross-platform test is 3DMark’s new Wild Life. In the most strenuous version of this test, the A15 is 30 percent faster than the A14.
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Scaling up to the M2 and M2 Max, we could expect over 6,000 for the lower-performance chip, and over 26,000 for Apple’s most powerful processor. That latter score is worth taking note of, as it’s pretty close to the mobile variant of the GeForce GTX 3070.
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While such an increase in performance would bring the M2 Max in line with a fairly high-end mobile discrete GPU, it’s still not even half the performance of a top of the line desktop GPU. More importantly, serious high-end GPUs from AMD and Nvidia (and the coming Arc series from Intel) feature hardware accelerated ray tracing, which is absent from Apple’s GPUs so far. While I think support for such a feature will have to happen sooner or later, it’s probably not going to arrive in the M2 line. Apple is already years behind the competition there, and it’s not likely going to improve this year.
Other considerations: Neural Engine, video encoder, memory
While the CPU and GPU are easy to quantify, they’re not the only important parts of Apple’s system-on-chips. RAM is of course very important, and we expect high-speed LPDDR5 to feature prominently again in these chips, as it provides the right mix of performance and power efficiency. Apple has done a great job of making sure their chips have enough memory bandwidth to fully utilize their CPU cores and GPU cores, and we don’t see any reason why it would let the M2 (or M2 Max) be the first to be seriously constrained by bandwidth.
The Neural Engine, a custom processor block designed to accelerate machine learning and AI tasks, and while the A15 has a 16-core Neural Engine just like the A14, it has been redesigned for better efficiency and can perform more than 40 percent more operations per second. We expect this same Neural Engine to make the leap to the M2.
Lastly, the A15 features an improved its video processing engine, which speeds up video decoding and encoding. The M1 and M1 Pro has one of these, while the M1 Max has two. We wouldn’t be at all surprised to find this continues with the M2—a single improved video engine in the M2 and M2 Pro, and two of them in the M2 Max. It would be nice to see further improvement here, since Macs are so often used as video production machines. In particular, Apple’s SoCs do not yet have hardware support for the AV1 code (neither encoding nor decoding), and it would be great to see this added in the M2’s version of the video processing engine.
Overall expectations
While it’s exciting to think that the M2 might be some major architectural upheaval, it’s most likely that it will carry forward the technology of the A15 in exactly the same way that the M1 derives from the A14. Perhaps Apple will diverge its Mac silicon further from its A series architecture even more in the future, but in its second-generation chip, “the A15 scaled up in exactly the same way” is the most likely scenario.
Performance limitations will vary wildly depending on the task or benchmark at hand, and factors like SSD performance and cooling always play a role. But in general terms, we think it’s reasonable to expect approximately 20 percent better CPU performance (and less than 10 percent on a single core), while the addition of extra cores will bring GPU performance up about 30 percent. These improvements will be accompanied by improved machine learning and video encoding performance, too.
All of this should happen in roughly the same power envelope, too. Apple rarely backslides on battery life, so you can expect similar laptops with M2 chips to have the same or better battery life while delivering these impressive performance gains. And since Apple prioritized battery life with the A15 chip, it could get a whole lot better.
I have written professionally about technology for my entire adult professional life – over 20 years. I like to figure out how complicated technology works and explain it in a way anyone can understand.