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Russian missiles pound Ukrainian energy facilities and defence plant
KYIV, Nov 17 (Reuters) – Russia pounded Ukrainian energy facilities and a huge rocket booster factory on Thursday in a new wave of missile strikes that Ukrainian officials denounced as terrorism.
Explosions were heard in several parts of the country, including the southern port of Odesa, the capital Kyiv, the central city of Dnipro and the southeastern region of Zaporizhzhia where officials said two people were killed.
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said targets included the huge Pivdenmash defence plant in Dnipro though he gave no details of any damage, and state energy company Naftogaz said gas production facilities in east Ukraine had been damaged or destroyed in a “massive” missile strike.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy posted video footage, apparently shot from a car cam, showing a driver’s journey through Dnipro being interrupted by a huge blast ahead that sent flames and black smoke pouring into the sky.
“Morning. A peaceful city and the desire of people to live a normal life. Go to work, on business. Missile strike! The terrorist state actually wants to bring Ukrainians only as much pain and suffering as possible,” Zelenskiy wrote below the footage on the Telegram messaging app.
He later said: “No matter what the terrorists want, no matter what they try to achieve, we must get through this winter and be even stronger in the spring than we are now, even more ready for the liberation of our entire territory than we are now.”
At least 15 people were wounded in Dnipro, three were hurt in the northeastern city of Kharkiv and at least one was injured in Odesa, local officials said. Ukrainian officials also reported fierce fighting in parts of eastern Ukraine.
The mayor of Melitopol said some parts of his southeastern city had no heating. Some other areas of Ukraine were already subject to rolling blackouts to save energy.
SOME RUSSIAN MISSILES DESTROYED
Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities in recent weeks in some of the heaviest missile strikes since invading Ukraine in February. Moscow dismisses charges of terrorism, saying its military action in Ukraine is intended to eliminate dangerous nationalists and protect Russian speakers.
Ukraine has said that its air defences have knocked out many of the missiles and drones fired in the last few weeks. Kyiv city officials said four missiles and five Iranian-made Shahed drones were destroyed near the city on Thursday.
The latest attacks prompted Ukrainian officials to make new calls for its international allies to send more air defence systems. They also said Ukraine would stand firm.
“The enemy thinks he will weaken our defence with energy strikes and be able to stab us in the back. This is a naive tactic by cowardly losers that we are ready for,” Andriy Yermak, the head of Zelenskiy’s chief, wrote on Telegram. “They will not succeed. We will crush them.”
Additional reporting by Max Hunder, Dan Peleschuk and Aleksandar Vasovic, Editing by Timothy Heritage
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
British pound rises as finance minister brings forward policy announcements
Jeremy Hunt arrives at his home in London after he was appointed Chancellor of the Exchequer following the resignation of Kwasi Kwarteng. Picture date: Friday October 14, 2022.
Aaron Chown | Pa Images | Getty Images
LONDON — Sterling rose against the dollar on Monday morning after new U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt announced he would deliver parts of his medium-term fiscal plan later in the day.
The pound was up around 0.8% to $1.1259 by around 9 a.m. London time, extending gains after the statement from the U.K. Treasury. Within the hour, the currency had started to settle at $1.1170.
Yields on long-dated U.K. government bonds, known as gilts, have also fallen after an unprecedented sell-off which prompted the Bank of England to intervene and stabilize the market in the two-week period leading to Oct. 14. Yields move inversely to prices.
Yields on 10-year gilts fell 30 basis points to trade around 4.029% by 9 a.m. London time. Yields on the 5-year fell to 4.013% and 2-year gilts slipped to 3.663%.
The market moves follow a dramatic day in British politics on Friday, which included big fiscal U-turns from Prime Minister Liz Truss and the sacking of Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng. He was swiftly replaced by Hunt, who is expected to make a statement at 11 a.m. local time on Monday.
The announcements Monday would come two weeks ahead of schedule. However, the full medium-term fiscal plan is still set to be published on Oct. 31, accompanied by a forecast from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility — something that was lacking in the original mini-budget announced on Sept. 23 which roiled U.K. bond markets.
Hunt said over the weekend that his priority as finance minister is growth, much like his predecessor, but he highlighted it would be “underpinned by stability.”
“The drive on growing the economy is right – it means more people can get good jobs, new businesses can thrive and we can secure world class public services. But we went too far, too fast,” Hunt said in a statement released Saturday.
In a research note Monday morning, Kit Juckes from Société Générale said the message the U.K. government now wants to send to the markets is “nothing to see here, please go about your normal business.”
“I’m not sure it will be quite that simple, but gilt yields should fall, sterling volatility should melt away and all we’ll be left with will be recession, austerity, higher rates and a lingering sense that this sterling crisis, more than its predecessors, was homemade and avoidable,” he added.
Biden: Original plan was ‘a mistake’
The International Monetary Fund gave a damning verdict on the swathe of debt-funded tax cuts after they were first announced in late September. U.K. bonds saw a sharp sell-off and the pound hit a record low in the days afterward.
In a rare statement, the IMF said the plans laid out by the U.K. would “likely increase inequality” and it stressed it does “not recommend large and untargeted fiscal packages at this juncture.”
U.S. President Joe Biden weighed in on the British economy over the weekend, describing Truss’s now-abandoned tax cut plan as a “mistake” and expressing concern that other nations’ monetary policies could hurt the United States.
“I wasn’t the only one that thought it was a mistake,” Biden said. “I disagree with the policy, but that’s up to Great Britain.”
Biden also said it was “predictable” that Truss had to backtrack the plans. He spoke to reporters at an ice cream shop in Oregon on Saturday.
Pressure on Truss
On Friday, Truss announced a partial reversal of her so-called mini-budget, including the scrapping of a pledge to reverse a corporation tax hike. Corporation tax will now increase from 19% to 25% as originally planned by her predecessor Boris Johnson’s government.
“It is clear that parts of our mini-budget went further and faster than markets were expecting,” Truss said in a brief and hastily-arranged press conference on Friday.
Markets weren’t reassured by the move though, and the pound fell by around 1.1% against the dollar following Truss’s speech, trading at around $1.1205. Many political observers highlighted her poor performance Friday, piling yet more pressure on Truss with some lawmakers calling for her to step down, including members of her own party and leader of the opposition party, Keir Starmer.
British pound jumps as UK government U-turns on cut to top tax rate
U.K. Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng outside 10 Downing Street. Britain will cap the cost of electricity and gas for businesses.
Rob Pinney | Getty Images News | Getty Images
LONDON — The British pound rose sharply Monday morning as the U.K. government reversed its planned scrapping of the top rate of income tax.
“It is clear that the abolition of the 45p tax rate has become a distraction from our overriding mission to tackle the challenges facing our economy,” Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng said in a statement.
“As a result, I’m announcing we are not proceeding with the abolition of the 45p tax rate. We get it, and we have listened.”
Sterling was 0.8% higher against the dollar at one stage on Monday morning, but dipped to $1.1212 by 7:30 a.m. London time after the formal announcement. It takes it back to the level it was at before Kwarteng unveiled a raft of tax cuts on Sept. 23.
The cuts were poorly received by financial markets and a scrapping of the 45% tax paid on incomes over £150,000 ($166,770) was seen as politically toxic as Brits deal with a cost-of-living crisis.
With the ruling Conservative Party plunging in opinion polls since the so-called “mini budget,” which was also criticized by the International Monetary Fund in a rare move, several of its own politicians have spoken out against the proposals.
Grant Shapps, the former transport secretary, said in a BBC interview Monday morning the reversal in the top rate tax cut was a “sensible response” because a tax cut for “the people who need them least … jarred for people in a way which was unsustainable.”
It represents a major and humiliating U-turn for new Prime Minister Liz Truss, who was insisting as recently as Sunday she was “absolutely committed” to the cut.
She also revealed the decision was taken by Kwarteng and had not been announced to her whole cabinet. The plan would have delivered an average £10,000 annual benefit to the country’s 660,000 top earners, the Treasury had said.
‘The jewel has lost its shine’: how the world reacted to the UK’s pound crisis | Economics
The turmoil stirred condemnation in the US, bitter memories in Greece and interest among holidaymakers in Singapore
Tue 27 Sep 2022 16.13 BST
International reaction to the turmoil in the financial markets which saw the pound fall to its lowest level ever against the dollar is devastating in its condemnation of the new government’s policies, and the astonishment and shock focused in particular on the chancellor’s willingness to experiment with one of the world’s most stable economies.
In the US, criticism was led by the former US treasury secretary Larry Summers, who took to Twitter to attack what he called the “utterly irresponsible UK policy”, expressing at the same time his surprise that the markets had reacted so quickly and harshly. He said this in itself indicated a loss of credibility.
I was very pessimistic about the consequences of utterly irresponsible UK policy on Friday. But, I did not expect markets to get so bad so fast.
A strong tendency for long rates to go up as the currency goes down is a hallmark of situations where credibility has been lost.
— Lawrence H. Summers (@LHSummers) September 27, 2022
His long thread concluded with the gloomy prediction that the financial crisis in Britain would not only have an effect on “London’s viability as a global financial centre”, but “could well have global consequences”.
In the New Yorker, John Cassidy wrote that the crisis was all the more disturbing for Britain as it came so soon after the death of Queen Elizabeth II, “their last remaining link to a time when their schoolbook maps showed great swaths of the earth’s surface coloured imperial red”. Now, he said, “they face a humiliating currency crisis”.
He said that the prime minister, Liz Truss, and her chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, had plunged Britain into a “fine economic mess”.
“The tragedy,” Cassidy said, “is that all this is unnecessary. Although Britain has been through many tribulations in recent years, it is the world’s sixth-largest economy, it has a stable political system, and London is one of the world’s biggest financial centres. If its government were even reasonably competent, the risk of a financial blowup would be minimal. Unfortunately, that basic civic requirement isn’t being met.”
In Ireland, commentators said that the “British blowout” had clearly backfired, and urged the Irish government, which is to unveil its own budget on Tuesday, to heed the lesson. “Ministers Paschal Donohoe and Michael McGrath have been delivered a real-time exhibition in exactly how not to do it,” the Irish Independent said in an editorial. “Despite the considerable weight of expectations, Budget 2023 must be grounded.”
Additional spending and tax measures to cushion Irish households and businesses from rising prices are expected to cost around €11bn (£10bn) – but unlike its neighbour, Dublin has a fiscal surplus.
The Irish Times said that, learning from the London experience, “the message sent out by the budget needs to be one of stability and involving a credible plan for public finances. There should be enough resources in place to respond to the immediate crisis – and to leave scope to adjust to circumstances next year if needed.”
In Germany the London-based economic correspondent of the daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Philip Plickert, told readers that as a “financial and economic historian, Kwarteng should consult the history books once again to see how dangerous an escalating twin deficit can be. Prime Minister Truss cannot afford a balance of payments crisis.”
Germany’s finance minister, Christian Lindner, meanwhile, told the same paper at an event it hosted on Monday evening that he would wait to draw the lessons from what he referred to as the “major experiment” Britain had embarked upon by, he said, “putting its foot on the gas while the central bank steps on the brakes”.
The Munich-based Süddeutsche Zeitung called the new policy a “reckless gamble”.
“Such unrest is more familiar in the emerging markets, but not in a highly developed economy like the British one. Following the end of the government of Boris Johnson an economic change of direction was expected, but one so radical? Liz Truss has said goodbye with one fell swoop to one of the keystones of conservative policy: she does not give a damn about solid state finances.”
Ulrik Harald Bie, writing for Denmark’s Berlingske, called the market reaction “swift punishment for a botched policy”.
In Greece, the sterling crisis has stirred memories of the 2010 financial emergency, when rising borrowing costs raised the spectre of a Greek economic collapse as lack of confidence in the economy mounted.
Government insiders told the Guardian the tax cuts outlined by the British chancellor were not only “nonsensical” but reminiscent of the populist policies pursued by Syriza, the firebrand leftists voted into office at the height of the crisis.
“They make no sense either politically or economically,” said one well-placed official expressing disbelief that Kwarteng had decided to ignore budget forecasts. “It’s as if there is an element of the populism, unpredictability and unprofessionalism that we saw in Syriza about the Liz Truss government.”
Greece came close to default and ejection from the eurozone. But as in those rollercoaster days – and with more than two years to go before general elections in the UK – Greek analysts said it would be hard to predict what the endgame would be. “Clearly Labour is on course for a landslide,” said the official, requesting anonymity because he did not wish to speak impolitely of a government of a country Greece traditionally has such strong ties with. “But if there are two more years of this Britain will have to go through a bungee jump, there’ll be rollercoaster days before it gets there.”
In France the run on the pound was a leading story in economic bulletins, with the broadcaster France 24 referring to the Truss government’s mini-budget as “a stock market killing game”, while the newspaper La Croix wrote: “The non-financed spending of Liz Truss makes the pound plunge … the jewel in the crown, the British pound, has lost its shine.”
The magazine Le Point accused Truss of “having lost control of the economy” and of making way for a Labour government, while the financial website Capital speculated about: “How long [will] the fall, which has been dizzying in recent days, continue?”
Across much of Africa, the problems of the UK government and the pound have been relegated to specialist websites and business pages, though in South Africa the South African Broadcasting Corporation led its daily market update with the news of the pound’s fall.
There was some positive coverage of the UK’s prospects however, with one newspaper in Nigeria saying it continued to be a destination for aspirant emigrants. The Vanguard called the UK “a friendly and safe place to live”, due to its ban on allowing citizens to arm themselves, which was “strictly heeded by its occupiers” and a “very stable economy”.
From the perspective of south-east Asia the crisis could be viewed as positive by those wanting to holiday, shop, buy property or pay student fees in the UK, wrote the Straits Times in Singapore. This could now be a good time to visit the UK, the paper said, quoting the travel agency EU Holidays, which said it had seen inquiries about holidays to Britain rise by almost a third.
“It’s the best time for people to go on holiday to the UK because this is the cheapest rate ever – I’ve never seen the rate drop so low before,” said Mohamed Rafeeq, the owner of Clifford Gems and Money Exchange in Raffles City shopping centre.
The drop in the value of the pound is also likely to be welcome news for many international students whose tuition fees are due at this time of year.
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Why is the British pound tanking as the US dollar soars? | Business and Economy
As the British pound plummets in value, the US dollar is flying high.
Against a tumultuous backdrop that includes the Ukraine war, soaring prices and China’s COVID lockdowns, sharp fluctuations of some of the world’s major currencies are injecting new uncertainty into the global economic outlook.
Why is the British pound in freefall?
On Monday, the pound sank to a record low against the United States dollar as investors rushed to sell the currency and government bonds in a major vote of no confidence in new Prime Minister Liz Truss’s economic plans, which include large tax cuts funded by steep increases in government borrowing.
The pound at one point in Asian trading sank as low as $1.0327, surpassing the previous record low reached in 1985, before making back some of its value.
The price of 5-year UK bonds — through which investors loan money to the government — recorded the sharpest fall since at least 1991.
Under Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng’s “mini budget” announced on Friday, the UK is proposing the biggest tax cuts in 50 years, including abolishing the 45 percent tax rate on incomes over 150,000 pounds ($162,000).
The tax cuts, along with a plan to support household’s rising energy bills, will require the government to borrow an extra 72 billion pounds ($77.7bn) in the next six months alone.
As with other goods and services, the value of most of the world’s major currencies operates on the principle of supply and demand.
When demand for a particular currency is high, the price goes up and vice versa.
The pound’s plummeting value indicates that investors are concerned about the UK’s ability to manage so much extra debt, especially as rising interest rates make borrowing much more costly.
On Monday, Raphael Bostic, a top official at the US Fed, warned that the tax overhaul had “really increased uncertainty” and raised the risk of a global recession.
“Confidence in the UK economy is low right now,” Pao-Lin Tien, an assistant professor of economics at George Washington University, told Al Jazeera.
“The new prime minister’s economic policy of lowering taxes on the wealthy is not too popular, and the consensus is that it will not work in stimulating the economy.”
While the UK’s tax plans were the initial trigger of the pound’s freefall, economists say that investors’ confidence in the British economy has been waning for some time due to developments such as Brexit.
“The British pound has long been suffering for political decisions in the UK,” Alexander Tziamalis, a senior economics lecturer at Sheffield Hallam University, told Al Jazeera.
“It has been hit by Brexit and is also facing the prospect of a second Scottish independence referendum and a potential trade war with the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol.”
What can the UK do to stop the pound’s decline?
The main tool available to prop up the pound, or any other falling currency, is to raise interest rates in order to attract foreign investors with better yields.
On Monday, Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, said the central bank would not hesitate to lift rates as necessary.
But despite calls from some economists for emergency action, the UK’s central bank opted against an unscheduled rate hike, sending the pound down to $1.06 after it made some earlier gains.
“Both the Bank of England and Bank of Japan can decide to raise rates to match the rising US interest rates,” said Tien, the professor at George Washington University.
“This will help, but if investors don’t see aggressive enough actions from BoE or BoJ — so not just an increase in rates, but a larger than expected increase in rates — it won’t help much with the currency values. The issue with aggressively large interest rate hikes is that it’s likely to push the economy into a recession, which no one wants to see.”
Governments can also intervene by buying up their own currency to prop up its value, although this is frowned on by many economies and risks invoking trade penalties.
“The pound and yen are officially floating exchange rates, governments should not and do not often intervene in the forex market,” Tien said.
Why is the US dollar so strong?
The strength of the US dollar, which has been on an upward trajectory since mid-2021 and last month hit a 20-year high against six major currencies, has two main drivers.
The first is confidence in the US economy relative to its peers.
Much in the same way a weakening currency reflects declining investor confidence in a country’s economy, a strengthening currency points to a vote of confidence in an economy’s fundamentals.
While the US economy is battling high inflation and flagging growth, the dollar has long been seen by investors as a reliable bet.
“The US dollar has always been seen as a safe haven for investors because the US is such a strong and large economy, so if there is global uncertainty, it’s always a safe bet to hold US dollars because it retains value well,” Tien said.
“So with the war in Ukraine, economic and political problems in Europe, high inflation, etc, it is not surprising investors are turning to the US dollar.”
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at financial consultancy Bannockburn Global Forex, said that the US seemed like a safe bet to investors in light of global events even if it recorded negative growth during the last two quarters.
“The US biggest rivals have shot themselves in the foot. Here I am thinking of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s zero-Covid policy that has disrupted growth,” Chandler told Al Jazeera.
“The US allies are also having serious struggles. Japan is the only G10 country not to raise interest rates. China actually cut rates recently. Europe is on the verge of a recession and the UK’s new government has stirred crisis talk with its fiscal stimulus adding to its current account deficit.”
The second driver of the dollar’s rise is interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, which has been raising the cost of borrowing in an effort to tame soaring inflation.
With depositors at US banks benefitting from interest rates, investors have been further encouraged to swap other currencies for dollars, pushing up the price of the greenback.
“Of course, central banks in other jurisdictions such as the UK have also been raising interest rates, and the eurozone is planning to do likewise. But they are not acting as aggressively as the US,” said Tziamalis, the economics lecturer at Sheffield Hallam University.
“Meanwhile Japan is not tightening at all, so the net result is still greater overseas demand for greenbacks.”
Who are the winners and losers?
For US consumers, a stronger dollar means cheaper imported goods in the shops and more affordable holidays abroad.
For everyone else, the picture is less rosy.
Not only does a stronger dollar mean pricier American imports and travel in the US, it is likely to exacerbate inflation generally in other countries.
Oil and other commodities such as metals and timber are usually traded in dollars, raising their cost in local currency. Higher energy prices will in turn push up the cost of other goods and services.
“The only exception is the US, where a stronger dollar makes it cheaper to import consumer products and therefore could help to tame inflation,” Tziamalis said.
The strength of the dollar also makes it more difficult for many developing countries to repay their debts, which are often held in US currency.
“As a result, many countries will struggle to find an ever-increasing amount of local currency to service their debts,” Tziamalis said.
“These countries will either have to tax their economies more, issue inflationary local money or simply borrow more. The results could be deep recession, hyper-inflation, a sovereign debt crisis or all three together, depending on the path chosen.”
Pound sterling: Bank of England says it won’t hesitate to raise interest rates
Sterling has recovered ground following speculation that the Bank of England might act in response its fall.
But it’s important to note the Bank’s response may not involve raising interest rates in the first instance.
It could try to calm nerves with a statement saying that it is monitoring markets and stands ready to help. That’s the usual first step.
Or, it could use its foreign currency reserves, the rainy day fund, to buy up sterling on international markets, to bid up it’s value. But that typically is a very short-term fix – and while the UK has over £100bn ($108bn) in reserves, that’s less than many other nations.
That’s why, increasingly, investors are betting that the Bank will enact an emergency rate rise, ahead of its next scheduled November meeting – perhaps of 1% or more.
That means investors might be keener to put their money in the UK, boosting sterling, as returns would be higher. It would also curb some of the extra inflationary pressures economists fear the mini-budget plans could unleash.
But the Bank’s rate setters will also be mindful that such a move might be interpreted as a vote of no-confidence in the chancellor’s plans
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British pound falls hard against the dollar after government mini-budget
Sterling’s slump in part reflects the strength of the U.S. dollar, which has been boosted by higher interest rates. But it also has dropped against many other currencies, indicating specific concerns about the British economy.
The pound hit a record low of $1.03 in Asian trading early Monday, before regaining some ground and stabilizing around $1.08 — still well below where it was Friday morning before the government unveiled its “mini-budget.”
The slump comes as global markets falter and recession fears grow in many geographies. In the United States, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates last week in its ongoing push to subdue high inflation. It was the fifth rate hike of the year and the third consecutive one of three-quarters of a percentage point. That roiled Wall Street, and by Friday the Dow Jones industrial average had closed below 30,0000, to its lowest point since 2020.
“We have got to get inflation behind us,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell said last week. “I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn’t.”
The major U.S. indexes were mixed Monday morning, with the Dow falling about 125 points, or 0.4 percent and the S&P 5oo down 0.2 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 0.3 percent.
The pound’s drop comes about two months after the euro reached parity with the dollar for the first time in nearly two decades. The war in Ukraine has disrupted food supplies and sent energy costs soaring around the world and especially in Europe. That combined with the Fed’s raising interest rates has made the dollar a comparatively safer bet for investors.
A weaker currency, of course, does not necessarily reflect a weak economy. In many cases, it may be advantageous, for example making British exports cheaper for consumers in the United States — and so a weak pound will boost overseas sales for companies that are export-oriented. But it means that anything denominated in dollars, such as energy costs, will soar for consumers.
It is good news for American tourists in the United Kingdom, who suddenly find that their dollars are going much further. It is not good news for many British households, which already are facing soaring energy bills and inflation running at 10 percent. They will find the costs of imported goods and services will go up, everything from fuel for vehicles to food on plates — in 2020, the U.K. imported 46 percent of the food it consumed.
On Friday, Kwasi Kwarteng, the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, or finance minister, announced a package of tax cuts worth 45 billion pounds ($48 billion), the biggest shake-up to its tax system in 50 years. The top rate of 45 percent for income tax was slashed, the cap for banker bonuses will be scrapped, and taxes on house purchases were cut — moves that will predominantly help more affluent citizens in hopes they will boost their spending.
While the new prime minister, Liz Truss, had pledged tax cuts during her leadership campaign, the scale of the cuts still shocked many economic observers.
“In the current economic environment it is a huge gamble,” wrote Thomas Pope, an economist with the Institute for Government. It is a major shift away from the policies of Truss’s predecessor, Boris Johnson, who last year had announced tax increases to help pay for combating the pandemic.
The new British government hopes that by slashing taxes and regulations, it will be able to generate growth that will help to fund public services and eventually pay down the debt.
John Hardy, head of foreign exchange strategy at Saxo Bank, said the pound was sliding because the government’s math isn’t reassuring investors.
“It’s a numbers game and their numbers don’t add up,” he said.
Investors are looking at where inflation is going and at U.K.’s balance sheet.
“They are saying, ‘I don’t want to own U.K. paper because they are not playing responsibly.’”
Truss, who is just three weeks into her new job, has defended the tax-cutting bonanza.
In a recent interview, CNN’s Jake Tapper put it to Truss that British opposition parties are framing her plans are “recklessly running up the deficit” and that President Biden “is, in essence, saying your approach doesn’t work.”
Last week, Biden tweeted: “I am sick and tired of trickle-down economics. It has never worked.” He was referring to the supply-side economics made famous by President Ronald Reagan, which Truss’s approach resembles.
In the interview, Truss responded: “The U.K. has one of the lowest levels of debt in the G-7. But we have one of the highest levels of taxes. Currently, we have a 70-year high in our tax rates. And what I’m determined to do as prime minister, and what the chancellor is determined to do, is make sure we are incentivizing businesses to invest. And we’re also helping ordinary people with their taxes.”
Truss continued: “That’s why I don’t feel it’s right to have higher national insurance and higher corporation tax, because that will make it harder for us to attract the investment we need in the U.K. It will be harder to generate those new jobs.”
Rachel Lerman contributed to this report.
Traders bet on emergency interest rate rise after pound hits record low
The pound tumbled to a record low on Monday while government bonds extended heavy losses, stirring expectations of an emergency rise in UK interest rates in the wake of chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s package of tax cuts last week.
The currency lost as much as 4.7 per cent to trade as low as $1.035 early in the morning before stabilising around $1.07, after Kwarteng vowed at the weekend to stick to his tax-cutting drive, prompting warnings that the UK is entering a currency crisis.
The early fall took the pound to its lowest level ever recorded. It has sharpened criticism of Friday’s fiscal statement, when the chancellor announced a massive new wave of borrowing to fund £45bn of tax cuts and a package to curb rising energy bills.
“The UK is now in the midst of a currency crisis,” said Vasileios Gkionakis, Citigroup’s head of foreign exchange strategy.
Traders ramped up bets on an emergency interest rate rise to stabilise sterling before the Bank of England’s next meeting in November. Derivatives markets are pricing in a rise of 0.75 percentage points in a week’s time and an increase of more than 1.5 percentage points by the November meeting. Rates are expected to top 6 per cent by May, up from the current level of 2.25 per cent.
The central bank declined to comment on whether it was planning an emergency interest rate meeting this week.
Reflecting the large shift in interest rate expectations, UK government debt continued to drop on Monday following Friday’s bruising sell-off, the worst day for the gilt market since the early 1990s.
The 10-year gilt dropped in price, pushing yields up by a sizeable 0.32 percentage points to 4.12 per cent, up from about 3.5 per cent before Friday’s fiscal announcement.
The Treasury did not comment on Monday on the market movements. Kwarteng told the Financial Times in an interview last week: “I’m always calm. Markets move all the time. It’s very important to keep calm and focus on the longer-term strategy.”
The UK lacks the resources, and likely also the willingness, to try and intervene directly in currency markets to prop up the pound, unlike peers in Japan, which intervened last week. However, the BoE’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee has met outside the normal cycle when markets have been turbulent in the past in a bid to restore calm, typically by cutting rates. Since it gained independence in 1997, the BoE has never raised rates between scheduled meetings.
Sushil Wadhwani, an asset manager and former BoE policymaker, said: “If I were still at the BoE, I would be tempted to announce an extra meeting in a week.”
Westminster’s tax cuts come as the UK is already expected to spend £150bn to subsidise energy costs for consumers and businesses. A large portion of this borrowing is to be financed by gilts.
Unlike big tax cuts in the 1980s, Kwarteng is borrowing tens of billions of pounds to fund his plans, adding to demand at a time the BoE is raising rates to bring inflation under control.
“It looks like we’re headed for a spiral that we usually see in emerging markets crises, where policymakers struggle to reassert credibility,” said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief economist at Bank of Singapore.
Mohi-uddin said investor confidence in sterling had been undermined by expectations that UK public debt was now on an “unsustainable rising path” while the country was still running a “gaping current account deficit”.
“If we continue to see these huge moves in the market, the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates, perhaps as much as 1 percentage point, to try and stabilise the pound,” he added.
The Bank of England raised interest rates by 0.5 percentage points on Thursday, after a third successive 0.75 percentage point rate increase by the US Federal Reserve a day earlier.
“We had argued that the path forward for sterling would depend heavily on the monetary response to inflation over the near term and well-targeted fiscal measures, but so far the delivery has been less than encouraging on both fronts,” said foreign exchange analysts at Goldman Sachs.
“With broad unfunded spending on the fiscal side unmatched by monetary policy to offset the inflationary impulse, the currency is likely to weaken further.”
Rachel Reeves, shadow chancellor, said Kwarteng had “fanned the flames on Sunday in suggesting that there may be more stimulus, more unfunded tax cuts”.
Reeves, a former economist at the Bank of England, said higher interest rates were worsening the cost of living for households.
“The prime minister and chancellor are like two gamblers in a casino chasing a losing run . . . they are not gambling their money, they are gambling all of our money,” she told the BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme. “I say it is irresponsible, reckless as well as being grossly unfair.”
Labour has promised to reverse some of the tax cuts in Friday’s mini-Budget — on National Insurance, corporation tax and the scrapping of the 45p rate — but would keep the looming cut in basic income tax from 20p to 19p.
Additional reporting by Adam Samson in New York and Leo Lewis in Tokyo