Tag Archives: Portfolio management

Worried about a recession? Here’s how to prepare your portfolio

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“We all understand that markets go through cycles and recession is part of the cycle that we may be facing,” said certified financial planner Elliot Herman, partner at PRW Wealth Management in Quincy, Massachusetts.

However, since no one can predict if and when a downturn will occur, he pushes for clients to be proactive with asset allocations.

Diversify your portfolio

Diversification is critical when preparing for a possible economic recession, said Anthony Watson, a CFP and founder and president of Thrive Retirement Specialists in Dearborn, Michigan.

You can eliminate company-specific risk by opting for funds rather than individual stocks because you’re less likely to feel a company going bankrupt within an exchange-traded fund of 4,000 others, he said.

Value stocks tend to outperform growth stocks going into a recession.

Anthony Watson

Founder and president of Thrive Retirement Specialists

He suggests checking your mix of growth stocks, which are generally expected to provide above-average returns, and value stocks, typically trading for less than the asset is worth.     

“Value stocks tend to outperform growth stocks going into a recession,” Watson explained.

International exposure is also important, and many investors default to 100% domestic assets for stock allocations, he added. While the U.S. Federal Reserve is aggressively fighting inflation, strategies from other central banks may trigger other growth trajectories.

Bond allocations

Since market interest rates and bond prices typically move in opposite directions, the Fed’s rate hikes have sunk bond values. The benchmark 10-year Treasury, which rises when bond prices fall, reached 3.1% on Thursday, the highest yield since 2018. 

But despite slumping prices, bonds are still a key part of your portfolio, Watson said. If stocks plummet heading into a recession, interest rates may also decrease, allowing bond prices to recover, which can offset stock losses.

“Over time, that negative correlation tends to show itself,” he said. “It’s not necessarily day to day.”

Advisors also consider duration, which measures a bond’s sensitivity to interest rate changes based on the coupon, time to maturity and yield paid through the term. Generally, the longer a bond’s duration, the more likely it may be affected by rising interest rates.

“Higher-yielding bonds with shorter maturities are attractive now, and we have kept our fixed income in this area,” Herman from PRW Wealth Management added.

Cash reserves

Amid high inflation and low savings account yields, it’s become less attractive to hold cash. However, retirees still need a cash buffer to avoid what’s known as the “sequence of returns” risk.

You need to pay attention to when you’re selling assets and taking withdrawals, as it may cause long-term harm to your portfolio. “That is how you fall prey to the negative sequence of returns, which will eat your retirement alive,” Watson said.

However, retirees may avoid tapping their nest egg during periods of deep losses with a significant cash buffer and access to a home equity line of credit, he added.

Of course, the exact amount needed may depend on monthly expenses and other sources of income, such as Social Security or a pension. 

From 1945 to 2009, the average recession lasted 11 months, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official documenter of economic cycles. But there’s no guarantee a future downturn won’t be longer.

Cash reserves are also important for investors in the “accumulation phase,” with a longer timeline before retirement, said Catherine Valega, a CFP and wealth consultant at Green Bee Advisory in Winchester, Massachusetts.

I do tend to be more conservative than than many because I have seen three to six months in emergency expenses, and I don’t think that’s enough.

Catherine Valega

Wealth consultant at Green Bee Advisory

“People really need to make sure that they have sufficient emergency savings,” she said, suggesting 12 months to 24 months of expenses in savings to prepare for potential layoffs.

“I do tend to be more conservative than many because I have seen three to six months in emergency expenses, and I don’t think that’s enough.”

With extra savings, there’s more time to strategize your next career move after a job loss, rather than feeling pressure to accept your first job offer to cover the bills.

“If you have enough in liquid emergency savings, you are providing yourself with more options,” she said.

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A lasting market downturn can be big risk early in your retirement

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For investors whose retirement is decades away, the stock market’s pullback should be of little concern — there’s plenty of time for your portfolio to recover before you need the money.

Yet if you are a new retiree or on the verge of retiring, it’s worth considering what a prolonged dip would mean for your portfolio over the long-term.

Basically, down markets can pose significant “sequence of returns” risk in the early years of retirement. That risk basically is about how the order, or sequence, of stock returns over time — combined with your portfolio withdrawals — can impact your balance down the road.

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“If there’s a downturn early on, it can derail a whole retirement plan,” said Wade Pfau, a professor of retirement income at the American College of Financial Services.

The major indexes have had a rough week. Through Thursday’s close, the S&P 500 index has shed 3.9%, the Dow Jones industrial average is off roughly 3.4% and the Nasdaq composite index has slid 4.9%. Year to date, the S&P has lost 5.9%, and the Dow and Nasdaq have dropped 4.4% and 9.5%, respectively.

Generally, down markets can present a buying opportunity for investors because they’re purchasing stock at a lower price than they would have otherwise.

However, it also means that if you sell, you’re doing so at depressed prices. And for retirees especially, that can be problematic.

“If there’s a big loss in the market and you’re taking withdrawals, you could be taking more from your portfolio than what it can make up for,” said certified financial planner Avani Ramnani, managing director at Francis Financial in New York.

“If that happens early in retirement … the recovery may be very weak and put you in danger of not recovering at all or being lower than where you would have been and therefore jeopardizing your retirement lifestyle,” Ramnani said.

Here’s how a sequence of returns risk can impact your savings: Say a person had retired at the turn of the century with $1 million invested in the S&P and withdrew $40,000 each year, with withdrawals after the first year adjusted 2% for inflation.

In 2020, the remaining balance would have been about $470,000, according to Ben Carlson, director of institutional asset management for Ritholtz Wealth Management, who crunched the numbers for a blog post.

In the above scenario, the portfolio would have been subject to a bear market at the outset of the person’s retirement, when the S&P lost 37% over three years during 2000-2002, but enjoyed a long-running bull market that began in 2009.

It’s not the specific returns over time but the order of those returns that matter.

Wade Pfau

Professor of retirement income at the American College of Financial Services

However, if the order of yearly returns were flipped — the gains posted by the S&P at the end of the 20 years happened first and that early bear market happened last — that same person would have more than $2.3 million after withdrawing the $40,000 or inflation-adjusted amount each year.

“It’s not the specific returns over time but the order of those returns that matter,” Pfau said.

How to combat the risk

The good news is that there are options for mitigating the risk.

The first is to simply plan to spend more conservatively, Pfau said. In other words, the less you spend consistently, the less you have to withdraw overall.

Another strategy is to adjust your spending when your portfolio performance is suffering. 

“You look at your expenses and see if there are any you can stop,” Ramnani said. “So maybe you don’t take a trip, or you delay doing a large renovation that would require a big distribution.”

You also can actively reduce risk in your portfolio, Pfau said. For instance, you could have a low stock allocation early in retirement but increase it over time, or use bonds for short-term expenses and stocks for long-term ones.

“You’re strategically reducing volatility,” Pfau said.

The last option is to have assets outside your investment portfolio that can support your spending needs when stocks are underperforming.

“You would use that as a temporary resource while you wait for your portfolio to recover,” Pfau said. 

He said that buffer could be cash, a reverse mortgage line of credit or permanent life insurance with a cash value, assuming it’s protected from market losses.

Additionally, given how well the market has generally performed over the last decade, you may simply be able to meet your goals without taking on the risk that comes with stocks.

“You could take some of that volatility off the table,” Pfau said.

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