Tag Archives: PMI

Asian factories stagnate as China’s slowdown, supply constraints hit

Machinery is seen at a factory specialising in heat treatment on metals, which is out of operation, at an industrial park in Shenyang, Liaoning province, China, September 30, 2021. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang

  • Japan’s factory activity grows at slowest pace in 7 months – PMI
  • S.Korea activity increases but optimism dented – survey
  • Fallout from China’s slowdown seen weighing on Asian economies

TOKYO, Oct 1 (Reuters) – Asia’s manufacturing activity broadly stagnated in September as pandemic-induced factory shutdowns and signs of slowing Chinese growth weighed on the region’s economies, surveys showed on Friday.

Countries where large outbreaks of the Delta variant receded saw an improvement in activity, such as Indonesia and India.

But factory activity in September shrank in Malaysia and Vietnam, and grew in Japan at the slowest rate in seven months, as chip shortages and supply disruptions added to the woes of a region still struggling to shake off the hit from COVID-19.

China’s waning economic momentum dealt a fresh blow to the region’s growth prospects, with the official Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) on Thursday showing the country’s factory activity unexpectedly shrank in September due to wider curbs on electricity use. read more

While the private Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI fared better than expected after slumping in August, growing signs of weakness in the world’s second-largest economy are clouding the outlook for neighbouring Asian countries. read more

“While coronavirus curbs on economic activity may be gradually lifted, the slow pace at which this will happen means Southeast Asian economies will stagnate for the rest of this year,” said Makoto Saito, an economist at NLI Research Institute.

The final au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.5 in September from 52.7 in the previous month, marking its slowest pace of expansion since February.

Manufacturers in the world’s third-largest economy faced pressure from pandemic restrictions and heightened supply chain disruptions as well as shortages of raw materials and delivery delays.

South Korea’s PMI for September rose to 52.4 from 51.2 in August, helped by an expansion in production and new orders.

It stayed above the 50-mark threshold that indicates expansion in activity for a 12th straight month, but continued supply chain disruptions dented business optimism for manufacturers.

Taiwan’s factory activity continued to expand but at its slowest pace in over a year.

Taiwan’s PMI index eased to 54.7 in September from 58.5 in August, while Vietnam saw the index unchanged from August at 40.2.

In a glimmer of hope, the PMI for Indonesia rose to 52.2 from 43.7 in August, while that for India improved to 53.7 in September from 52.3 in the previous month.

“While regional PMIs showed that the disruption from large virus waves in the region is easing somewhat, unmet orders continue to pile up, meaning that the resulting shortages further down supply chains are set to remain for some time to come,” said Alex Holmes, emerging Asia economist at Capital Economics.

Once seen as a driver of global growth, Asia’s emerging economies are lagging advanced economies in recovering from the pandemic’s pain as delays in vaccine rollouts and a spike in Delta variant cases hurt consumption and factory production.

Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da Costa

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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China power crunch slams factories as coal lobby warns woes could stay until winter

SHENYANG, China, Sept 30 (Reuters) – Small firms caught in China’s prolonged energy crunch are turning to diesel generators, or simply shutting shop, as coal industry officials voiced fears about stockpiles ahead of winter and manufacturing shrank in the world’s no. 2 economy.

Beijing is scrambling to deliver more coal to utilities to restore supply as the northeast grapples with its worst power outages in years, particularly the three provinces of Liaoning, Heilongjiang and Jilin, home to nearly 100 million people.

Gao Lai, who runs an industrial laundry service in Shenyang, the capital of Liaoning, said he was losing money after the power crunch forced him to hire a diesel generator.

“We can afford it for just four days, but if it’s for longer, then the costs are too much, so we can’t survive,” he told Reuters.

“We are willing to make it work because the country needs it, but if (power curbs continue) in the long run, we have to think of a way out.”

The curbs were triggered by shortages of coal, which fuels about two-thirds of China’s power generation.

Thermal coal futures closed Thursday up 4.2% on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange after hitting an all-time high of 1,408 yuan ($218) per tonne.

The contract surged 96% in the July to September period on tight supplies and strong demand, its biggest quarterly jump since the first quarter of 2017, spurring the exchange to adopt trading limits.

Official data separately showed China’s factory activity contracted in September for the first time since February 2020. read more

Since last week, more than 100 companies from electronic component manufacturers to gold miners have notified stock markets of production suspensions. Some have said they resumed production in the last two days, however.

The strain comes as the China Coal Industry Association warned it was “not optimistic” about supplies ahead of winter, the peak season for demand, and added that power plant inventories were now “obviously low”.

It urged companies to “spare no effort” to boost supply and focus on sales to smaller, high-energy consumers who have not signed long-term supply contracts.

Although coal production hit a record in August, analysts with Chinese investment bank CICC said a recent spate of mine accidents had made regulators more cautious about approving expansions in output.

They said imports, down 10.3% on the year in the January to August period, were unlikely to rise significantly over the rest of 2021 and more local production had to be “freed”.

SWITCH TO DIESEL

In Shenyang, staff at a steel parts factory that has been shut for the last few days said they had not yet rented a generator but might do so if rationing continued.

Zhai Junwang, manager of a company that rents standalone diesel-fired generators, said brisk business in recent days had led to a doubling in rates.

“There’s very limited stock,” he said, but added that he did not expect the situation to last, as most small factories using his generators were losing money.

The government has said its priority will be to guarantee household power and heating supplies over the winter, as state-run energy firm Sinopec pledged to boost imports of liquefied natural gas. read more

But Citi analysts said in a note they expected power shortages to persist in the peak winter season for heating, most of it coal-fired.

Experts are pressing for fundamental reforms to China’s energy system.

The crisis was caused not by supply shortages but an inflexible grid system, said Zhang Boting of industry research group the China Society for Hydropower Engineering.

“The solution … isn’t simply relying on increasing power generating capacity, but boosting the ability of the grid to adjust peaks and solve the serious mismatches between energy loads and energy supplies,” he said on the group’s website.

($1=6.46107 Chinese yuan renminbi)

Reporting by Gabriel Crossley in Shenyang and Shivani Singh in Beijing; Additional reporting by Min Zhang in Beijing, Brenda Goh and David Stanway in Shanghai, Aizhu Chen in Singapore and Tom Daly; Editing by Clarence Fernandez

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Dow Jones Today Chases Nasdaq Amid Jobs, PMI Data; PVH, Conn’s Rally On Earnings; Salesforce Edges Toward Buy Point

The Nasdaq led a mixed open on Wednesday, after August hiring data came in below expectations and ahead of key manufacturing data. Biotech Moderna climbed on positive vaccine news. Earnings reports powered big early moves from Ambarella, PVH, Anaplan and Conn’s. Apple jumped to the head of the Dow Jones today, climbing higher in a buy range following an analyst upgrade.




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The Nasdaq Composite opened 0.5% higher, while the S&P 500 fought to a 0.1% gain. The Dow Jones today got off to a weak start, down about 0.1%, as Walgreens (WBA) and Caterpillar (CAT) dragged at the bottom of the index.

Apparel maker PVH (PVH), the former Phillips-Van Heusen brand, topped the S&P 500 in early trade. The stock sprung 9.5% higher as JPMorgan raised its price target to 125, after the New York-based company clobbered analysts’ second-quarter estimates.

Casino owners Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and Las Vegas Sands (LVS) traded high on the S&P 500, after China’s Macau gaming district reported casino revenues in the city rose 234% in August. Vaccine maker Moderna (MRNA) rose 1.8%, after data released late Tuesday showed patients dosed with its Covid vaccine produced higher levels of antibodies than those vaccinated with Pfizer‘s (PFE) product. Moderna is an IBD 50 stock.

ASML Holdings (ASML) ran strong among IBD 50 stocks, moving up 1.3%. Also an IBD Leaderboard stock, ASML is extended and in a profit-taking zone.

Early earnings news also included efficiency and planning software specialist Anaplan (PLAN). It rocketed 15% higher as three analysts raised price targets on the stock after its late Tuesday earnings report. The Woodlands, Texas-based retailer Conn’s (CONN) jetted more than 10% higher on a second-quarter earnings win.

Among small caps, fabless chip outfit Ambarella (AMBA) led the Russell 2000, up more than 12%, with Stifel and Deutsche Bank raising price targets following second-quarter results that beat forecasts. St. Louis-based footwear retailer Caleres (CAL) also ran high on the Russell, bolting ahead 8% on strong second-quarter results.

Companies expected to report earnings after Wednesday’s close include Veeva Systems (VEEV), Okta (OKTA), Five Below (FIVE) and Chewy (CHWY).

Dow Jones Today: Apple Upgrade, JPMorgan Buy Point

Apple (AAPL) ran ahead on the Dow Jones today. Wolfe Research upgraded the stock to peer perform from underperform, and raised its price target to 155, from 135. Apple is climbing above the high that followed a breakout in June. It is in a technical buy range through 155.40, after passing a trend line entry. Apple stock gained 4.1% in August, and has a year-to-date gain of 14.4%

Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan (JPM) reversed premarket gains and slipped about 0.5% each. Goldman was the Dow’s top advancer in August, rallying 10.3% for the month as the 10-year bond yield reversed a four-month slide and rebounded 5.3% for the month. The 10-year yield held steady around 1.30% early Wednesday. Goldman stock is extended from an early August breakout. It has a year-to-date gain of 57%.

JPMorgan stock easily outpaced the overall stock market with a 5.4% advance in August. It briefly topped a 162.47 buy point in a two-month cup-with-handle base. Shares had eased to not quite 2% below that entry on Tuesday.

Econ News: August Hiring Misses Target, Manufacturing PMIs Coming Up

An initial look at hiring in August came in well below forecasts, as ADP’s August National Employment Report showed U.S. nonfarm private employers adding 374,000 workers for the month. That was an increase over July’s 326,000-employee gain, but will below estimates for 500,000 new hires.

Service sector employers did almost 88% of the month’s hiring, while goods-producing employers accounted for 12%. The ADP report is often viewed as a precursor to the Labor Department’s monthly payrolls report, due on Friday. But results can vary widely between the two reports.


3 Earnings Movers After Market Pause; Two Leaderboard Stocks In Buy Zones


Researcher Markit delivers its final manufacturing purchasing managers index at 9:45 a.m. ET. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI is set for a 10 a.m. ET release. The Commerce Department’s July construction spending data is on tap at 10 a.m. ET. And the Energy Information Administration plans to release weekly oil inventory stats at 10:30 a.m. ET.

China Rebound Continues; Europe Climbs

China’s markets plotted another positive session, extending a rebound begun on Aug. 23. The Shanghai Composite gained 0.65% on Wednesday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rallied 0.6%. That left the Shanghai benchmark ending August with a 4.3% gain, and up 2.7% since Dec. 31. The Hang Seng dipped 0.3% in August and is down 4.4% so far this year.



Among China-based ETFs, the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) and the Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) were inactive in premarket trade. The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) rallied 1.3%.

Europe’s markets were showing nice strength near midday, after extending their seven-month rally through August. Frankfurt’s DAX added 0.2%, while London’s FTSE 100 jumped 0.6%. The CAC-40 in Paris swung 1% higher. The SPDR Portfolio Europe ETF (SPEU) was unchanged in early action, after bouncing 1.6% last week following a test of support at its 10-week moving average. The fund is trading less than 2% below a 44.06 entry in what IBD MarketSmith analysis marks as an 11-week flat base.

Stocks To Watch: International Money, Chipotle, Facebook, Matson

International Money Express (IMXI) is riding a five-day rally as it works on a seventh-straight weekly advance. That climb lifted the stock briefly above an 18.79 buy point in a 53-week saucer base. Shares ended just a fraction below the entry on Tuesday.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is sitting on a powerful six-week advance, closing Tuesday just below a 1,912.85 buy point. The buy point is in a four-weeks-tight pattern, a more bullish variation of a three-weeks-tight setup. The buy range extends to 2,008.49.

Facebook (FB) sits low in a buy range. It cleared a 377.65 buy point on Monday, and remains in a buy zone through 396.53.

Matson (MATX) reversed an early gain and ended narrowly lower Tuesday, after a solid second-quarter sales and earnings beat reported late Monday. The stock held just pennies above a 79.15 entry in what IBD MarketSmith analysis charts as a 27-week cup base. The buy zone extends to 83.11.

Dow Jones Today: August Leaders

After above-average gains for the market’s major benchmarks in August, half of the 30 Dow industrials stocks are currently in valid bases or are pulled back and testing support at their 10-week moving averages.

On the Dow Jones today, Apple and Microsoft (MSFT) are the two stocks currently listed in IBD’s Leaderboard lineup. Microsoft is extended following a breakout in June, with a 6% gain in August and up more than 35% since Dec. 31.


For more detailed analysis of the current stock market and its status, study the Big Picture.


Goldman Sachs posted the largest gain in August among Dow Jones stocks, rising 10.3% and ending the month narrowly extended above a 393.36 buy point. Salesforce.com (CRM) was next in line with a 9.7% advance. That lifted Salesforce stock briefly above a 271.02 buy point in a 10-month saucer base.

Shares were 2% below that entry at the closing bell on Tuesday, with a year-to-date gain of 19.4%. Salesforce has a 94 Composite Rating from IBD. The stock’s Relative Strength Rating is a weak 58, and its relative strength line lags well below its year-ago highs. This is not unusual as top stocks exit long basing periods.

Find Alan R. Elliott on Twitter @IBD_Aelliott

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China’s economy under pressure as factory activity slows in Aug, services contract

  • Twin PMI surveys point to growing pressure on businesses
  • Surveys suggest economy contracted in Aug – economist
  • High raw material prices, COVID-19 curbs hurt economy
  • Analysts expect more policy support later in year

BEIJING, Aug 31 (Reuters) – China’s businesses and the broader economy came under increasing pressure in August as factory activity expanded at a slower pace while the services sector slumped into contraction, raising the likelihood of more near-term policy support to boost growth.

The world’s second-biggest economy staged an impressive recovery from a coronavirus-battered slump, but momentum has weakened recently due to domestic COVID-19 outbreaks, high raw material prices, slowing exports, tighter measures to tame hot property prices and a campaign to reduce carbon emissions.

The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) fell to 50.1 in August from 50.4 in July, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Tuesday, holding just above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected it to slip to 50.2.

“The worse-than-expected August PMIs add conviction to our view that the growth slowdown in H2 could be quite notable,” Nomura economists wrote in a note.

“We expect Beijing to maintain its policy combination of ‘targeted tightening’ for a few sectors, especially the property sector and high-polluting industries, complemented by ‘universal easing’ for the rest of the economy.”

Nomura is not alone in its views as many other analysts also expect the central bank to deliver a further cut to the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves later this year to lift growth, on top of last month’s cut which released around 1 trillion yuan ($6.47 trillion) in long-term liquidity into the economy.

The manufacturing PMI showed demand slipped sharply, with new orders contracting and a gauge for new export orders falling to 46.7, the lowest in over a year. Factories also laid off workers, at the same pace as July.

SERVICES SECTOR DOWNTURN

Adding to signs of a broadening economic slowdown, COVID-19-related restrictions drove services sector activity into sharp contraction for the first time since the height of the pandemic in February last year.

A worker wearing a face mask works on a production line manufacturing bicycle steel rim at a factory, as the country is hit by the novel coronavirus outbreak, in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, China March 2, 2020. China Daily via REUTERS

The official non-manufacturing PMI in August was 47.5, well down from July’s 53.3, data from the NBS showed.

“The latest surveys suggest that China’s economy contracted (in August) as virus disruptions weighed heavily on services activity. Industry also continued to come off the boil as supply chain bottlenecks worsened and demand softened,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics, in a note.

While most of the weakness should reverse with relaxing COVID-19 restrictions, tight credit conditions and weakening foreign demand will continue to weigh on China’s economy, he said.

“This epidemic in multiple provinces and locations was a fairly big shock to the services industry, which is still in recovery,” said Zhao Qinghe, of the NBS.

Catering, transportation, accommodation and entertainment industries were most affected, said Zhao. Construction activity accelerated to the fastest pace since March.

There are signs China may have largely contained the latest coronavirus outbreaks, with zero locally transmitted cases reported on Aug 30., for the third day in a row.

But it spurred authorities across the country to impose measures including mass testing for millions of people as well as travel restrictions of varying degrees and port shutdowns.

Meishan terminal at China’s Ningbo port resumed operations in late August after shutting down for two weeks due to a COVID-19 case. The closure caused logjams at ports across the country’s coastal regions and further strained global supply chains amid a resurgence of consumer spending and a shortage of container vessels.

Higher raw material prices, especially of metals and semiconductors, have also pressured profits. Earnings at China’s industrial firms in July slowed for the fifth straight month.

The official August composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, fell to 48.9 from July’s 52.4.

Reporting by Gabriel Crossley
Editing by Shri Navaratnam

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Wolfsburg, we have a problem: How Volkswagen stalled in China

BEIJING, Aug 9 (Reuters) – In late December 2019, managers at Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) headquarters in Wolfsburg realised they might have a serious problem in China, the company’s biggest market and ticket to its electric future.

Its flagship Passat sedan had fared badly in an unofficial safety test carried out by an insurance industry body which simulated a front-on driver’s side collision, a test that’s been widely used in the United States for around a decade.

The car was mangled. The crash-test video went viral, attracting millions of views and triggering a social media furore across China, where the German auto king’s success is built on its reputation for superior quality and engineering.

Volkswagen was not obliged to do anything – the Passat had passed the Chinese regulator’s frontal collision test, the same test that’s used in much of Europe, and one that the carmaker and many industry experts believe better reflects driving conditions in China.

Nonetheless, Wolfsburg acted swiftly, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter. Days after the test results were announced, it assembled a team of dozens of engineers and managers to work with SAIC-Volkswagen, the 50/50 joint venture that makes Passats in China, they said.

In early 2020, that team decided that strengthening metal components should be added to the front of all new Passats and a variety of other models made at the Shanghai-based venture, at a cost of about 400 yuan ($62) per vehicle, according to the sources.

That structural modification, details of which have not been previously reported, would amount to tens of millions of dollars for the hundreds of thousands of vehicles that would be affected at the venture a year, the sources said. It was a significant cost for a company that had said it was trying to trim manufacturing costs in China and globally.

The intervention in the face of online consumer activism underlines the importance of China, the world’s biggest car market, and one which Volkswagen is relying on to fund its 35-billion-euro ($42 billion) transition to electric vehicles and make good on its pledge to overtake Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) to become global EV leader by 2025.

Global automakers’ expensive renunciation of oil comes at a time when they can no longer count on the dominance they have enjoyed in decades gone by in China, where they’re feeling the heat from local gasoline and electric players challenging them on technology and design.

A Volkswagen spokesperson said it developed products specifically for the Chinese market and that the test failed by the Passat had simulated a head-on collision between two cars, a scenario it said was less likely in China than the United States.

“In China there are central barriers on the highways,” Volkswagen added. “In China there aren’t normally as many trucks or pickup trucks compared to U.S. traffic scenarios.”

Asked about the 400-yuan modification, the spokesperson said Volkswagen was constantly improving its products according to customer feedback, and to make them safer.

‘UTMOST IMPORTANCE FOR VW’S HEALTH’

It’s difficult to compare designs of Passats across Volkswagen’s markets as they are often fundamentally different vehicles built on different production platforms.

The new Passat in China was the first model to have such a structural modification when it was rolled out in mid-2020, according to the sources. It passed the insurance industry test that its predecessor had failed.

But the reputational and financial damage has proved more persistent for Volkswagen, which has been the top-selling foreign carmaker in China and has made largely healthy profits during its over three decades there, the longest of any overseas player.

Volkswagen’s profit per vehicle in the country has fallen from levels of 1,400-1,500 euros around 2015 to around 1,000 euros and even closer to 800 euros in most recent quarters, according to Bernstein analysts who described China as “of utmost importance for VW’s financial health”.

Sales of the Passat, and more broadly at the venture with SAIC Motor (600104.SS), have slumped – something Volkswagen has attributed mainly to the backlash over the failed crash test, as well as product lineup issues and a global chip shortage.

In a sign of the financial pressures facing the industry, one internal memo, seen by Reuters, showed SAIC-Volkswagen’s finance team ordered managers to cut costs at workshops by 30% in 2019, versus the year before, when China’s car sales dropped for the first time since 1990s.

Volkswagen declined to comment on the Bernstein profitability figures or the internal memo.

SAIC-Volkswagen’s revenue dropped 26% to 174.5 billion yuan last year versus 2019, while profit fell 23% to 31 billion yuan. Sales of the Passat, once one of the best-sellers in its sedan class before the insurance body’s test, fell 32% to 145,805 vehicles, according to consultancy LMC Automotive.

While the COVID-19 pandemic clearly played a big role, the decline at the venture was far steeper than the overall 6.8% fall in Chinese passenger vehicle sales in the same period, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association.

Moreover Volkswagen’s other main venture in the country, with local automaker FAW – whose products were not involved in the crash test controversy – saw sales rise 1.5%, though VW officials say it gained momentum by introducing SUVs and premium Audi models to the market.

The two joint ventures make up the bulk of Volkswagen’s Chinese business, accounting for all its local production. They have historically been close in numbers of vehicles sold, though FAW has taken the lead in recent years.

There’s been no respite for SAIC-Volkswagen in 2021, with sales falling 7.8% in the first six months compared with a year earlier when the pandemic raged. FAW-Volkswagen saw sales grow 23% while overall Chinese passenger car sales jumped about 29%.

CRASH TEST FRACTURED ‘A-PILLAR’

The C-IASI test that the Passat initially failed in 2019 was developed by a Chinese insurance industry body, the CIRI Auto Technology Institute, which was unsatisfied with the standard C-NCAP test conducted by CATARC, a government-backed vehicle testing agency.

It said many insurers felt that C-NCAP failed to distinguish in enough detail between vehicles in terms of collision safety, and started publishing test results in 2018.

Most foreign car brands received positive results in the C-IASI test, though even those that fared poorly did not receive the online backlash that was aimed at the Passat.

The C-IASI test subjects 25% of the car’s front to a head-on impact. It fractured the Passat driver’s side front roof support, known as the A-pillar.

The standard C-NCAP test hits 40% of the car front, which allows the impact to be better absorbed.

The CIRI and CATARC did not respond to requests for comment.

In the United States, a 25% frontal impact test is used by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS), a nonprofit group funded by auto insurers. IIHS tests are widely publicized, and automakers design vehicles to pass them as well as federal crash tests.

Volkswagen’s China chief Stephan Woellenstein acknowledged in January that the failed crash test and subsequent online backlash had triggered the decline in Passat and SAIC venture sales.

Last month, though, he said Volkswagen had fixed the problems revealed by the test, that the ructions of the episode had subsided and the carmaker’s Chinese business was recovering.

“We have once again clearly one of the safest cars on the market in this segment,” Woellenstein told reporters in July. “We will once again take up the old leadership of the Passat.”

But there is quite some ground to regain in the large family car segment.

A total of 47,480 Passats were sold in the first six months of this year in China, some way behind the 91,110 Toyota Camrys (7203.T) and 89,157 Honda Accords (7267.T), according to LMC.

The figures from the same period of 2019, before the pandemic struck, show how steeply the Volkswagen model has fallen away of late: 91,400 Passats were sold versus 111,968 Accords and 85,396 Camrys.

($1 = 6.4610 Chinese yuan renminbi; $1 = 0.8423 euros)

Reporting by Yilei Sun and Tony Munroe; Additional reporting by Jan Schwartz and Christoph Steitz; Editing by Joe White and Pravin Char

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Asian factory activity hit by rising costs, Delta variant

  • Japan, S. Korea factory activity grows, input prices up
  • China’s Caixin PMI falls sharply in July
  • Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia see activity shrink in July
  • Material shortages, supply disruption add to gloom from pandemic

TOKYO, Aug 2 (Reuters) – Asia’s factories hit a rough patch in July as rising input costs and a new wave of coronavirus infections overshadowed solid global demand, highlighting the fragile nature of the region’s recovery.

Manufacturing activity rose in export powerhouses Japan and South Korea, though firms suffered from supply chain disruptions and raw material shortages that pushed up costs.

China’s factory activity growth slipped sharply in July as demand contracted for the first time in over a year, a private survey showed, broadly aligning with an official survey released on Saturday showing a slowdown in activity. read more

“Supply bottlenecks remain a constraint. But the PMIs suggest demand is cooling too, taking the heat out of price gains and weighing on activity in industry and construction,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics.

Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia saw factory activity shrink in July due to a resurgence in infections and stricter COVID-19 restrictions, according to private surveys.

The surveys highlight the divergence emerging across the global economy on the pace of recovery from pandemic-induced strains, which led the International Monetary Fund to downgrade this year’s growth forecast for emerging Asia. read more

“The risk is that growth scars linger for longer even if activity recovers in the coming months,” said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian Economics Research at HSBC.

“Plus, cooling export momentum, far from a temporary blip, provides a hint of what to expect in quarters to come,” he said, adding that such uncertainty over the outlook would prod Asian central banks to maintain loose monetary policy.

Smoke rises from a factory in front of Mount Fuji during the sunset at Keihin industrial zone in Kawasaki, Japan January 16, 2017. REUTERS/Toru Hanai/File Photo

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China’s Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 50.3 in July from 51.3 in June, marking the lowest level in 15 months, as rising costs clouded the outlook for the world’s manufacturing hub.

The final au Jibun Bank Japan PMI rose to 53.0 in July from 52.4 in the previous month, though manufacturers saw input prices rise at the fastest pace since 2008. read more

Japan also faces a surge in Delta variant cases that has forced the government to expand state of emergency curbs to wider areas through Aug. 31, casting a shadow over the Olympic Games and dashing hopes for a sharp rebound in July-September growth.

South Korea’s PMI stood at 53.0 in July, holding above the 50 mark indicating an expansion in activity for the 10th straight month. But a sub-index on input prices rose at the second highest on record in a sign of the strain firms are feeling from rising raw material costs. read more

Underscoring the pandemic’s strain on emerging Asia, Indonesia’s PMI plunged to 40.1 in July from 53.5 in June.

Manufacturing activity also shrank in Vietnam and Malaysia, the PMI July surveys showed.

While still grappling with infections, easing restrictions helped India’s factory activity bounced back in July as demand surged both at home and abroad. read more

Once seen as a driver of global growth, Asian’s emerging economies are lagging their advanced peers in recovering from the pandemic’s pain as delays in vaccine rollouts hurt domestic demand and countries reliant on tourism.

Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Sam Holmes

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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