Tag Archives: plummets

Ruble plummets as sanctions bite, sending Russians to banks

MOSCOW — Ordinary Russians faced the prospect of higher prices and crimped foreign travel as Western sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine sent the ruble plummeting, leading uneasy depositors to line up at banks and ATMs on Monday in a country that has seen more than one currency disaster in the post-Soviet era.

The Russian currency plunged about 30% against the U.S. dollar after Western nations announced unprecedented moves to block some Russian banks from the SWIFT international payment system and to restrict Russia’s use of its massive foreign currency reserves. The exchange rate later recovered ground after swift action by Russia’s central bank.

But the economic squeeze got tighter when the U.S. fleshed out the sanctions to immobilize any assets of the Russian central bank in the United States or held by Americans. The Biden administration estimated that the move could impact “hundreds of billions of dollars” of Russian funding.

U.S. officials said Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Japan, European Union and others will join in targeting the Russian central bank.

“We are in uncharted territory of throwing all these nuclear options of sanctions at Russia at the same time over the weekend,” said Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, a banking trade group. “Throwing them all together at once like this will have a very significant effect.”

Russians wary that sanctions would deal a crippling blow to the economy have been flocking to banks and ATMs for days, with reports on social media of long lines and machines running out. People in some central European countries also rushed to pull money from subsidiaries of Russia’s state-owned Sberbank after the Russian parent bank was hit with international sanctions.

Moscow’s department of public transport warned city residents over the weekend that they might experience problems with using Apple Pay, Google Pay and Samsung Pay to pay fares because VTB, another Russian bank facing sanctions, handles card payments in Moscow’s metro, buses and trams.

Entrepreneur Vladimir Vyaselov found that flights were blocked for his overseas trip on a student visa. He was considering driving to another country and flying from there.

“I have been in disagreement with the decisions of all the authorities for a very long time and that is why I store all my money only in currencies, and I am skeptical towards Sberbank, VTB, to national banks in general,” he said. “I can’t say I was ready (for sanctions) but I was as ready as possible being a citizen of the Russian Federation.”

A sharp devaluation of the ruble would mean a drop in the standard of living for the average Russian, economists and analysts said. Russians are still reliant on a multitude of imported goods, and the prices for those items are likely to skyrocket, such as iPhones and PlayStations. Foreign travel would become more expensive as their rubles buy less currency abroad. And deeper economic turmoil will come in the coming weeks if price shocks and supply chain issues cause Russian factories to shut down due to lower demand.

“It’s going to ripple through their economy really fast,” said David Feldman, an economics professor at William & Mary in Virginia. “Anything that is imported is going to see the local cost in currency surge. The only way to stop it will be heavy subsidization.”

Russia has moved to produce many goods domestically, including most of its food, to shield the economy from sanctions, said Tyler Kustra, an assistant professor of politics and international relations at the University of Nottingham. He expected some fruits, for example, that can’t be grown in Russia “are going to be suddenly much more expensive.”

Electronics will be a pain point, with computers and cellphones needing to be imported and the cost going up, said Kustra, who studies economic sanctions. Even foreign services like Netflix might cost more, though such a company could lower its prices.

The auto sector, a major employer, “are being hit very quickly with the ban on the import of microchips and other parts, said Chris Weafer, chief executive of Macro-Advisory, a Eurasia strategic advisory company.

As long as even a few Russian banks were spared from the SWIFT cutoff, he said, Russia would still be able to keep exporting, show modest growth this year and earn enough to subsidize or bail out big companies or employers.

“So it really does critically depend on whether SWIFT remains open or whether that last channel is closed,” Weafer said.

After the West sanctioned Russia for seizing Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula in 2014, Russia’s central bank cleaned up weak banks and prepared for a possible worsening of penalties.

“So there’s not need to fear any kind of immediate crisis or collapse” this year, he said. “It’s clearly only if these sanctions get tighter and extend over several years, the situation would clearly deteriorate over that period.”

The ruble slide conjured ugly memories of previous crises. The currency lost much of its value in the early 1990s after the end of the Soviet Union, with inflation and loss of value leading the government to lop three zeros off ruble notes in 1997. Then came a further drop after a 1998 financial crisis in which many depositors lost savings and yet another plunge in 2014 due to falling oil prices and Crimea sanctions.

On Monday, Russia’s central bank sharply raised its key interest rate to 20% from 9.5% in a desperate attempt to shore up the ruble and prevent a run on banks. It also said the Moscow stock exchange would remain closed.

European officials said at least half of Russia’s estimated $640 billion hard currency pile, some of which is held outside Russia, would be paralyzed. That dramatically raised pressure on the Russian currency by undermining financial authorities’ ability to support it by using reserves to purchase rubles.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the sanctions as “heavy,” but argued that “Russia has the necessary potential to compensate the damage.”

The steps taken to support the ruble are themselves painful because raising interest rates can hold back growth by making it more expensive for companies to get credit. Russians who have borrowed money, such as homeowners with mortgages or business owners who have taken out loans, also could get hit by doubled interest rates, experts said.

The ruble sank about 30% against the U.S. dollar early Monday but steadied after the central bank’s move. Earlier, it traded at a record low of 105.27 per dollar, down from about 84 per dollar late Friday, before recovering to 94.60.

———

McHugh contributed from Frankfurt, Germany. AP reporters Kelvin Chan in London, Ken Sweet in New York and Paul Wiseman in Washington contributed.

Read original article here

Turkish lira plummets to historic low after Erdogan sparks selloff

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attends a news conference in Budapest, Hungary, November 7, 2019.

Bernadett Szabo | Reuters

Turkey’s lira dropped to another record low of 12.49 to the dollar on Tuesday, a level once unfathomable and well past what was just last week deemed the “psychological” barrier of 11 to the dollar.

“Insane where the lira is, but it’s a reflection of the insane monetary policy settings Turkey is currently operating under,” Tim Ash, senior emerging markets strategist at Bluebay Asset Management, said in a note in response to the news.

The lira was trading at 12.168 to the greenback at 1 p.m. local time on Tuesday. 

The sell-off was triggered after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan defended his central bank’s continued contentious interest rate cuts amid rising double-digit inflation. He labeled the move as part of an “economic war of independence,” rejecting calls from investors and analysts to change course. 

Inflation in Turkey is now near 20%, meaning basic goods for Turks — a population of roughly 85 million — have soared in price and their local currency salaries are severely devalued. The lira has lost nearly 40% of its value this year and 20% since the start of last week alone, according to Reuters.  

For perspective, at this time in 2019, the lira was trading at roughly 5.6 to the dollar. And that was already making news, as it was a dramatic drop in value from the mid-2017 level of 3.5 to the dollar.  

‘Irrational experiment’

Turkey’s currency has been in a downward slide since early 2018, thanks to a combination of geopolitical tensions with the West, current account deficits, shrinking currency reserves, and mounting debt — but most importantly, a refusal to raise interest rates to cool inflation.   

Erdogan has long described interest rates as “the enemy,” rejecting economic orthodoxy to insist that raising rates actually worsens inflation, rather than the other way around.

Investors fear the lack of independence of Turkey’s central bank, whose monetary policies are seen as being largely controlled by Erdogan. He has fired three central bank chiefs in roughly two years over policy differences.

Semih Tumen, a former central bank deputy governor who Erdogan dismissed in October, sharply criticized the president’s moves.

“We need to abandon this irrational experiment, which has no chance of success, and return to quality policies that will protect the value of the Turkish lira and protect the welfare of the Turkish people,” Tumen wrote on Twitter, according to a translation.

The latest sharp downturn began last Thursday when the central bank cut rates by 100 basis points to 15%. It’s cut rates by 400 basis points since September alone.  

According to ratings agency Fitch, in August 57% of Turkey’s central government debt was foreign currency linked or denominated, meaning paying that debt becomes more painful as the lira continues to drop in value. 

“We are seeing a perverse economic experiment of what happens when a central bank has effectively no monetary policy,” Ash said.

“Erdogan has taken away the ability of the CBRT (Central Bank of Turkey) to hike policy rates.”

Read original article here

As mortgage rates shoot even higher, refinance demand plummets 10%

A sharp jump in mortgage interest rates over the past few weeks is taking its toll on mortgage demand. Total application volume fell nearly 7% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. 

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.14% from 3.10%, with points rising to 0.35 from 0.34 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That is the highest level since July. 

Refinance demand, which is especially sensitive to weekly interest rate movements, fell to the lowest level in three months, down 10% last week compared with the previous week. Volume was 16% lower than the same week one year ago. 

“Higher rates are reducing borrowers’ incentive to refinance, as declines were seen across all loan types,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. 

Mortgage applications to purchase a home declined 2% for the week and were 13% lower than the same week one year ago. It was driven by a drop in conventional loan applications. Government loans, which are mostly used by lower-income borrowers, saw a 1% increase in demand. 

“But that was still not enough to bring down the average loan balance of $410,000. With home-price appreciation and sales prices remaining very elevated, applications for higher balance, conventional loans still dominate the mix of activity,” added Kan. 

Rates fell back a little bit to start this week, but then moved higher again Tuesday. The bond market, which dictates daily rate movement, reacted to economic data.

“After an important report on the services sector came out stronger than expected, bonds continued to deteriorate,” said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily. “When bonds lose enough ground in the middle of a trading day, mortgage lenders occasionally make mid-day adjustments to their rate offerings.”

Read original article here

Meghan Markle and Prince Harry’s UK popularity plummets after Oprah Winfrey interview: poll

Meghan Markle and Prince Harry’s popularity took a nosedive in the United Kingdom following their sit-down interview with Oprah Winfrey, according to a new poll.

During the explosive sit-down, the couple made allegations of racism against the royal family and claimed that Markle’s pleas for help were ignored after she became suicidal.

Harry’s popularity fell 15 points from just a week before the interview, according to the new YouGov poll (via Reuters). Forty-eight percent of the 1,664 participants had a “negative attitude” toward Harry.

The poll also found that only three out of 10 people had a “positive view” of Markle following the interview. An overwhelming 58 percent had a “negative opinion” of the former “Suits” star.

MEGHAN MARKLE, PRINCE HARRY WILL HAVE AN ‘AWKWARD’ TALK WITH QUEEN ELIZABETH AFTER ANGERING THE PALACE: SOURCE

This image provided by Harpo Productions shows Prince Harry, from left, and Meghan, The Duchess of Sussex, in conversation with Oprah Winfrey. 
(AP)

The new opinions on the couple — who are expecting a daughter — come after their headline-making interview, in which they accused the royal family of having discussions about “how dark” their son Archie’s skin would be when he was born. Markle also alleged that “the Firm” did not protect her as they said they would and let her take the heat for a false narrative that she made her sister-in-law, Kate Middleton, cry ahead of her May 2018 wedding to Harry.

Markle also revealed that she became suicidal while pregnant with Archie, but that the royal institution refused to help her when she reached out.

CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR OUR ENTERTAINMENT NEWSLETTER

Harry’s father, Prince Charles, also saw a decline in his popularity in the poll, as 42 percent of people reported having a “negative view” of him.

During the interview, Harry revealed that his father stopped taking his calls for a period of time after “Megxit.” He also said he tried to help his brother, Prince William, see the “toxic” ways of the royal family lifestyle, but was unsuccessful.

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

But Page Six exclusively reported Thursday that Harry and William have opened “communication channels” after the interview.

Read original article here