Tag Archives: perils

San Francisco’s oldest toy store closing due to inflation, ‘perils and violence’ of crime downtown – Fox News

  1. San Francisco’s oldest toy store closing due to inflation, ‘perils and violence’ of crime downtown Fox News
  2. Jeffrey’s, SF’s oldest toy store, will close after 86 years San Francisco Chronicle
  3. Iconic San Francisco toy store that inspired ‘Toy Story’ films closing after 86 years over ‘perils and violence’ in city’s downtown New York Post
  4. San Francisco’s oldest toy store which inspired Toy Story blockbuster movies shuts down after 86 YEARS due to Daily Mail
  5. San Francisco Store That Inspired Pixar’s ‘Toy Story’ Is Closing Deadline

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Arsenal vs Liverpool: A lesson in the perils of defences holding a high line

In the 49th minute of Arsenal’s thrilling 3-2 victory over Liverpool on Sunday, there was an entirely forgettable 30-second passage of play which nevertheless summed up the tactical nature of the game.

First, Takehiro Tomiyasu launched a ball over the Liverpool defence for Gabriel Martinelli, who was flagged offside.

And from the subsequent free kick, Joe Gomez hammered a ball downfield for Darwin Nunez, who attempted to chase his own flick-on, then realised he’d been flagged offside.

In other words, here were two consecutive offside decisions, one at either end of the pitch, without a single event taking place between.

In 16 per cent of Premier League games this season, there have been fewer than two offsides in the entire game. Here, we had two in the space of 30 seconds.

Irrelevant trivia, perhaps. But this was entirely in-keeping with the nature of the contest.

Here’s an image from 20 minutes in, and the notable thing is that there’s almost no midfield whatsoever.



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Years after shuttle, NASA rediscovers the perils of liquid hydrogen

Enlarge / NASA’s Space Launch System rocket at LC-39B on September 1st, 2022.

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, Fla.—America’s space agency on Saturday sought to launch a rocket largely cobbled together from the space shuttle, which itself was designed and built more than four decades ago.

As the space shuttle often was delayed due to technical problems, it therefore comes as scant surprise that the debut launch of NASA’s Space Launch System rocket scrubbed a few hours before its launch window opened. The showstopper was an 8-inch diameter line carrying liquid hydrogen into the rocket. It sprung a persistent leak at the inlet, known as a quick-disconnect, leading on board the vehicle.

Valiantly, the launch team at Kennedy Space Center tried three different times to staunch the leak, all to no avail. Finally at 11:17 am ET, hours behind on their timeline to fuel the rocket, launch director Charlie Blackwell-Thompson called a halt.

What comes next depends on what engineers and technicians find on Monday when they inspect the vehicle at the launch pad. If the launch team decides it can replace the quick-disconnect hardware at the pad, it may be an option to perform a partial fueling test to determine the integrity of the fix. This may allow NASA to keep the vehicle on the pad ahead of the next launch. Alternatively, the engineers may decide the repairs are best performed inside the Vehicle Assembly Building, and roll the rocket back inside.

Due to the orbital dynamics of the Artemis I mission to fly an uncrewed Orion spacecraft to the Moon, NASA will next have an opportunity to launch from September 19 to October 4. However, making that window would necessitate fixing the rocket at the pad, and then getting a waiver from the US Space Force, which operates the launch range along the Florida coast.

At issue is the flight termination system, which is powered independently of the rocket, with batteries rated for 25 days. NASA would need to extend that battery rating to about 40 days. The space agency is expected to have those discussions with range officials soon.

If the rocket is rolled back to the Vehicle Assembly Building, which would be necessary service the flight termination system or perform more than cursory work at the launch pad, NASA has another Artemis I launch opportunity from October 17 to October 31.

A tiny, tiny element

The space shuttle was an extremely complex vehicle, mingling the use of solid-rocket boosters—which are something akin to very, very powerful firecrackers—along with exquisitely built main engines powered by the combustion of liquid hydrogen propellant and liquid oxygen to serve as an oxidizer.

Over its lifetime, due to this complexity, the shuttle on average scrubbed nearly once every launch attempt. Some shuttle flights scrubbed as many as five times before finally lifting off. For launch controllers, it never really got a whole lot easier to manage the space shuttle’s complex fueling process, and hydrogen was frequently a culprit.

Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe, but it is also the lightest. It takes 600 sextillion hydrogen atoms to reach the mass of a single gram. Because it is so tiny, hydrogen can squeeze through the smallest of gaps. This is not so great a problem at ambient temperatures and pressures, but at super-chilled temperatures and high pressures, hydrogen easily oozes out of any available opening.

To keep a rocket’s fuel tanks topped off, propellant lines leading from ground-based systems must remain attached to the booster until the very moment of launch. In the final second, the “quick-disconnects” at the end of these lines break away from the rocket. The difficulty is that, in order to be fail-safes in disconnecting from the rocket, this equipment cannot be bolted together tightly enough to entirely preclude the passage of hydrogen atoms—it is extremely difficult to seal these connections under high pressure, and low temperatures.

NASA, therefore, has a tolerance for a small amount of hydrogen leakage. Anything above a 4 percent concentration of hydrogen in the purge area near the quick disconnect, however, is considered a flammability hazard. “We were seeing in excess of that by two or three times that,” said Mike Sarafin, NASA’s Artemis I Mission Manager. “It was pretty clear we weren’t going to be able to work our way through it. Every time we saw a leak, it pretty quickly exceeded our flammability limits.”

Twice, launch controllers stopped the flow of hydrogen into the vehicle, in hopes that the quick-disconnect would warm a little bit. They hoped that, when they restarted slowly flowing cryogenic hydrogen on board the rocket, the quick-disconnect would find a tighter fit with the booster. It did not. Another time they tried applying a significant amount of pressure to re-seat the quick disconnect.

NASA officials are still assessing the cause of the leak, but they believe it may have been due to an errant valve being opened. This occurred during the process of chilling down the rocket prior to loading liquid hydrogen propellant. Amid a sequence of about a dozen commands being sent to the rocket, a command was sent to a wrong valve to open. This was rectified within 3 or 4 seconds, Sarafin said. However, during this time, the hydrogen line that would develop a problematic quick-disconnect was briefly over-pressurized.

Deferring to the experts

So why does NASA use liquid hydrogen as a fuel for its rockets, if it is so difficult to work with, and there are easier to handle alternatives such as methane or kerosene? One reason is that hydrogen is a very efficient fuel, meaning that it provides better “gas mileage” when used in rocket engines. However, the real answer is that Congress mandated that NASA continue to use space shuttle main engines as part of the SLS rocket program.

In 2010, when Congress wrote the authorization bill for NASA that led to creation of the Space Launch System, it directed the agency to “utilize existing contracts, investments, workforce, industrial base, and capabilities from the Space Shuttle and Orion and Ares 1 projects, including … existing United States propulsion systems, including liquid fuel engines, external tank or tank related capability, and solid rocket motor engines.”

During a news conference on Saturday, Ars asked NASA Administrator Bill Nelson whether it was the right decision for NASA to continue working with hydrogen after the agency’s experience with the space shuttle. In 2010, Nelson was a US Senator from Florida, and ringleader of the space authorization bill alongside US Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, of Texas. “We deferred to the experts,” Nelson said.

By this Nelson meant that the Senate worked alongside some officials at NASA, and within industry, to design the SLS rocket. These industry officials, who would continue to win lucrative contracts from NASA work their work on shuttle-related hardware, were only too happy to support the new rocket design.

Among the idea’s opponents was Lori Garver, who served as NASA’s deputy administrator at the time. She said the decision to use space shuttle components for the agency’s next generation rocket seemed like a terrible idea, given the challenges of working with hydrogen demonstrated over the previous three decades.

“They took finicky, expensive programs that couldn’t fly very often, stacked them together differently, and said now, all of a sudden, it’s going to be cheap and easy,” she said. “Yeah, we’ve flown them before, but they’ve proven to be problematic and challenging. This is one of the things that boggled my mind. What about it was going to change? I attribute it to this sort of group think, the contractors and the self-licking ice cream cone.”

Now, NASA faces the challenge of managing this finicky hardware through more inspections and tests after so many already. The rocket’s core stage, manufactured by Boeing, was shipped from its factory in Louisiana more than two and a half years ago. It underwent nearly a year of testing in Mississippi before arriving at Kennedy Space Center in April 2021. Since then, NASA and its contractors have been assembling the complete rocket and testing it on the launch pad.

Effectively, Saturday’s “launch” attempt was the sixth time NASA has tried to completely fuel the first and second stages of the rocket, and then get deep into the countdown. To date, it has not succeeded with any of these fueling tests, known as wet dress rehearsals. On Saturday, the core stage’s massive liquid hydrogen tank, with a capacity of more than 500,000 gallons, was only 11 percent full when the scrub was called.

Perhaps the seventh time will be a charm.

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Paramount Stock Plunge Shows Perils Of Streaming Plans – Deadline

Was it the Bumblebee bit?

Paramount Global stock has plunged more than 20% since the company’s investor presentation Tuesday, including a 3% dip today. The vanishing of almost $5 billion in market value, after the company formerly known as ViacomCBS declared it was going all-in on streaming, has left even die-hard backers searching for explanations.

The virtual presentation itself was businesslike, running about 2 hours and 20 minutes, notably shorter than the three-hour one mounted by the company last year. But in a deviation from the recently established template for streaming pitches to Wall Street, Paramount’s kicked off with some shtick. As they had in 2021, board chair and controlling shareholder Shari Redstone and CEO Bob Bakish appeared together in a short sketch, trading synergistic quips while driving in Bumblebee, the yellow car from Transformers.

“I feel the need — the need for speed!” Bakish crowed from the driver’s seat, quoting Top Gun. “You go, Maverick!” Redstone replied. As they screeched to a halt, she added, “Thanks for the ride. Now let’s get to work!”

Taking the virtual stage, Bakish struck an upbeat tone. “When we spoke to you last year, some of you felt we were on an impossible mission,” he said. “But today, as you can see, it’s not only possible, it’s happening.” Repeatedly throughout the event, Bakish, Redstone and a number of other executives emphasized how fully the company was committed to streaming.

Wall Street, however, is reconsidering whether streaming is good business. A conga line of executives rolling out sizzle reels of new premium programming won’t make the splash it once did for Disney and, to a lesser extent, WarnerMedia and NBCUniversal. Not during a collective panic attack over whether company balance sheets can survive the high cost of content spending. A number of analysts issued downbeat takes on Paramount, including Bank of America’s Jessica Reif Ehrlich, who downgraded her rating on the company’s shares to “neutral” from “buy,” helping to trigger an 18% plunge by the stock the day after the event. While she acknowledged the sizable upsizing of the company’s subscriber forecast (to 100 million by 2024), she said the legacy part of Paramount remains “under continuing pressure.”

Streaming Gets A Rethink

The rethink started last year and accelerated in January after Netflix reported disappointing fourth-quarter subscriber growth and issued a weak forecast. Its stock took a huge hit, falling 20% in a single day, and it hasn’t recovered. “If Netflix can’t be successful and scale and get leverage from all of their content spend, then nobody can,” one analyst observed.

The Paramount event contrasted with Disney’s successful efforts to rally investor enthusiasm in 2019 and 2020. When Disney first laid out its plans for Disney+, drawing gasps when its initial $7 monthly pricing was revealed, the company’s stock rose 10% the next day. In December 2020, when the company announced a flood of new film and TV titles in a four-hour extravaganza, the gains were even larger, with the stock jumping almost 14%.

After the first Disney day, one analyst recalled, “everybody re-did their models and as they started seeing some success with subscribers and some successful shows, the idea was they had to be all-in – pull all theatrical and put the money on Disney+. That’s started to change.”

One fund manager felt the Bakish-Redstone intro was “kind of cringey” and the numbers laid out by the management team left questions even for those impressed by the company’s content pipeline and the growth of Paramount+. The streaming service ended 2021 with 32.8 million subscribers, accounting for most of the company’s 56 million subscribers. But content spending, which will hit $6 billion in 2024, is eroding cash flow and earnings. Even though the pay-TV bundle is shrinking, the dual revenue stream perfected by the cable business is hard for any legacy media player to quit.

And, even at $6 billion, Paramount’s spend will be a fraction of the outlay by Netflix and rivals like Disney and WarnerMedia (even before the latter’s pending merger with Discovery). “I am not sure how they think they can spend as little as they are spending,” one analyst said. “They have to spend more to compete. But I don’t know that they can afford to spend more – or even that they can afford to spend what they are spending.”

“Maybe Let’s Look Out Further”

What would have helped investor day? Perhaps providing forecasts beyond 2024, to the point when the company expects Paramount+ to hit break-even. (CFO Naveen Chopra predicted losses would peak in 2023.) “Some timeframe would have been nice,” said one Wall Streeter. With 2024 just two years away, agreed another, “Maybe let’s look out further, to 2027 … Let’s go out five years. What does the combined business look like, total EBITDA, total free cash flow, what does the balance sheet look like?”

He took issue with what he called an “amorphous comment” by Chopra that over the long term, the streamer could have the same type of margins as the TV/media business. “I have a tough time believing that on faith and the market does as well.” Ehrlich, in her downgrade note, said she didn’t expect those margins to materialize until “the back half” of this decade.

Also, some investors have gotten the impression that the company has been selling off assets like CNET, Black Rock, CBS Studio City and Simon & Schuster to fund its business shift. Free cash flow, a key metric, was only $481 million last year, a decline from almost $1.9 billion in 2020 due to stepped-up investments in programming.

The overall shift to streaming is “permanently depressing the profitability of the industry,” warned one media agency vet.

Not only could paying subscribers be hard to attract and keep, but advertising revenue in streaming is showing signs of flattening. Free platform Pluto TV, which Viacom acquired in 2019, has grown into more than a billion-dollar business, but ad revenue outside of Pluto increased just 9% in the fourth quarter to reach $322 million.

The overall shift to streaming is ‘permanently depressing the profitability of the industry,’ warned one media agency vet.

The oft-used reference to the “streaming wars” sort of implies a single winner. Even if more than one new arrival makes a viable go of it, an upper echelon is starting to form. Netflix remains the leader with 222 million global subscribers, and Disney+ has earned a spot in the top tier with almost 130 million after just two-plus years in existence. HBO Max ended 2021 with almost 74 million subscribers when combined with linear HBO and considers itself among the top three. Obviously, cash-rich tech firms Amazon and Apple aren’t going anywhere and can put the squeeze on media companies by spending freely and pursuing a different strategy.

Optimists about Paramount+ see its deep content well giving it a fighting chance to compete. Execs chalk up the stock movement to market volatility and point to the streaming shift as a long-term strategy, one that is impossible to measure in daily increments. Internally, according to a person familiar with management’s thinking, the view from the top is that the investor presentation was a success.

Still, many longtime industry observers note that Sony is happy and prosperous as an “arms dealer” without its own streamer. That was a description Bakish also embraced while he was running Viacom before its reunion with CBS. While the decision to license Yellowstone and library cornerstones like South Park and the Godfather films to rival streamers hasn’t been an especially good look, it generated lots of cash. The company has been working in recent months to change course and claw back more rights.

“They’re doing the right thing to spend heavily on content and put all their resources on building the DTC business,” one analyst said. “Because that is going to work, and they will have a business that in three to four years supports overall growth at the company in a stable way. Or it won’t work, and they will get bought.”



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CDC admits natural immunity more protective than vax, yet hypes ICU, other perils for unvaxxed kids

Natural immunity from COVID-19 is broad and durable. The lowest risk group for COVID complications should get vaccines — and boosters, for those authorized — regardless of their health.

These statements came out of the CDC two days apart, illustrating the agency’s mixed messaging as ongoing research fails to show a meaningful effect on viral transmission from COVID interventions, especially in children.

They have also exposed a potential rift between the agency’s researchers and its social media team, which proclaim the gospel of vaccines and boosters even for research that is more circumspect.

The CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report last week found that COVID recovery became more protective against reinfection and hospitalization than “recent” vaccination alone once the Delta variant became dominant.

“The report finally acknowledges what many have suspected for a long time — that surviving COVID-19 provides excellent natural immunity not only [to] repeat infection but also to hospitalization and death for the delta variant of COVID-19,” University of Southern California clinical medical professor Jeffrey Klausner and UCLA Health senior resident Noah Kojima wrote this week in The Hill. 

“The pattern of improved protection after natural infection makes sense,” they explain, because natural infection exposes the body to “all parts of the virus” while vaccines target COVID’s spike protein.

This feds’ recognition means “it is time to update vaccination policies and school or work-entry requirements across federal and state or county governments,” they wrote.

The study’s findings undercut another agency’s social media team. The FDA recently tweeted a slick in-house video featuring Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research Director Peter Marks, who claimed that people who recovered from COVID and then got vaccinated are still vulnerable without boosters.

‘Really misleading’ tweet

The CDC’s portrayal of a severe pediatric COVID study led by one of its Atlanta-based researchers is “really misleading,” a Stanford Medical School professor told Just the News.

Before COVID vaccines were “approved for most children, nearly 1 in 3 of 2,200+ children hospitalized w/ COVID-19 were admitted to the ICU or put on a ventilator,” the agency tweeted Jan. 31, recommending vaccines for children 5 and up and boosters for 12 and up.

It shared a link to a study in the American Academy of Pediatrics’ journal, “Risk Factors for Severe COVID-19 in Children,” which reviewed 14 months of data from the start of the pandemic from the COVID-19-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network.

Most of it is hidden behind a $25 paywall, including the percentage of kids on ventilators, but the abstract only specifically identifies “children at potentially higher risk” as beneficiaries of vaccines.

The CDC’s tweet drew immediate criticism on Twitter for mischaracterizing the study, which is about a hospitalized subset with “extremely high existing risk ratios,” according to Matt Shapiro, an occasional writer for National Review. The biggest COVID risk factors it identified included chronic lung disease, neurological disorders and “airway abnormality.”

Stanford Med’s Jay Bhattacharya, a coauthor of the anti-lockdown Great Barrington Declaration, shared a copy of the full study with Just the News. It shows the “invasive mechanical ventilation” percentage of hospitalized children in the study is 5.3%, or 122, and the death rate 0.5%, or 12.

Bhattacharya emphasized the study analyzed “the alpha wave” of COVID and its purpose is to “identify correlates of bad outcomes among these hospitalized kids.” Those with “severe pre-existing conditions,” more than half the study population, are more likely to suffer ICU admission, ventilation or death.

The CDC’s tweet falsely leads parents to think “1/3rd of all kids who get COVID before the vax … will be hospitalized and have severe disease,” he wrote in an email. “The randomized trials in kids did not establish that vax prevents severe disease in children. The CDC’s assertion that it does is not based on the randomized trial evidence.”

Asked to respond to criticism of its portrayal of the severe pediatric COVID study, a CDC spokesperson referred Just the News to another spokesperson who has not responded. The lead author of the study, CDC researcher Rebecca Woodruff, referred Just the News to media relations but has not answered whether she was banned from talking to reporters.

This wasn’t the first time the CDC’s tweets have been faulted by highly credentialed medical experts.

Harvard Medical School’s former dean, among others, challenged its purported finding of a COVID-diabetes link in children, which the agency used to promote masking and vaccines despite several study limitations disclosed by the CDC’s COVID and diabetes researchers.

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky has shown similar seesawing, sometimes undermining COVID conventional wisdom while also promoting disputed research.

Months before she took over the agency, Walenksy questioned the purpose of PCR testing for recovered individuals in a Health Affairs essay promoting less sensitive rapid antigen tests.

She asked “what possible prevention purpose” PCR tests could serve by returning positives in those who “pose no risk of further transmission” and flagging “non-infectious individuals as candidates for isolation and quarantine.” They routinely send up “false alarms” and risk “undermining public confidence” in testing.

Under fire in December for cutting in half the recommended isolation and quarantine time for infected people, Walensky warned that PCR tests can register positives for up to 12 weeks after an infection clears. The FDA told Just the News that PCR tests for COVID nonetheless remain the “gold standard.”

But Walensky also repeatedly promoted a study that found schools without mask mandates were 3.5 times more likely to have COVID outbreaks. Critics noted it failed to control for vaccination status or even use the same time period for different schools.



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