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Putin puts West on notice: Moscow can terminate exports and deals

Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech during a meeting of the Council of Legislators at the Federal Assembly in Saint Petersburg, Russia April 27, 2022. Sputnik/Alexei Danichev/Kremlin via REUTERS

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  • Putin begins Russia’s bite-back over Ukraine sanctions
  • Gives wide powers to cut raw material, produce exports
  • Forbids transactions with sanctioned entities
  • Retaliatory moves could wreak chaos across markets
  • Who will be on sanctions lists will now be key

LONDON, May 3 (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin put the West on notice on Tuesday that he could terminate exports and deals, the Kremlin’s toughest response yet to the sanctions burden imposed by the United States and allies over the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Putin, Russia’s paramount leader since 1999, signed a broad decree on Tuesday which forbade the export of products and raw materials to people and entities on a sanctions list that he instructed the government to draw up within 10 days.

The decree, which came into force with its publication, gives Moscow the power to sow chaos across markets as it could at any moment halt exports or tear up contracts with an entity or individual it has sanctioned.

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The Russian government has 10 days to draw up lists of those it will sanction beyond the Western politicians it has already.

Putin explicitly framed the decree as a response to what he cast as the illegal actions of the United States and its allies meant to deprive “the Russian Federation, citizens of the Russian Federation and Russian legal entities of property rights or the restricting their property rights”.

The decree sets out “retaliatory special economic measures in connection with the unfriendly actions of some foreign states and international organizations”.

Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine prompted the United States and its allies to impose the most severe sanctions in modern history on Russia and Moscow’s business elite, steps Putin casts as a declaration of economic war.

The West’s attempt to economically isolate Russia – one of the world’s biggest producers of natural resources – has propelled the global economy into uncharted waters with soaring prices and warnings of food shortages.

Putin, 69, has repeatedly warned that Moscow will respond in kind, though until Tuesday the Kremlin’s toughest economic response had been to cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria and demand a new payment scheme for European buyers of gas.

Tuesday’s decree forbids the export of products and raw materials to people and entities that the Kremlin has sanctioned. It forbids any transactions with such people or entities – even under current contracts.

Putin tasked the government with drawing up the list of foreign individuals and companies to be sanctioned, as well as defining “additional criteria” for a number of transactions that could be subject to restrictions.

“This is a framework decree,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a non-resident scholar at Carnegie Moscow Center and founder of the R.Politik political analysis firm.

“Now all the specific lists should be developed by the government. That’s the main thing and we need to wait for.”

Since the West imposed sanctions on Russia, the $1.8 trillion economy has been heading for its biggest contraction since the years following the 1991 break-up of the Soviet Union, amid soaring inflation.

A significant transfer of Russian assets has begun as the Russian state gains even more influence over the economy, many major Western investors – such as energy giants BP (BP.L) and Shell (SHEL.L) – exit, and oligarchs try to restructure their business empires.

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Writing by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Kevin Liffey and Mark Heinrich

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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World Economic Outlook Dims as War and Pandemic Cast a Pall

“Demand will be and will need to be restrained by the removal of monetary accommodation,” she said. “And this has become very clear in recent months.”

In addition to the war, the pandemic and rising interest rates, China is facing a downturn in its property sector, and the Brazilian economy could be damaged by political turmoil related to coming elections, she said.

New data show that Chinese economic growth and retail sales are flagging, as the government imposes sweeping lockdowns to stamp out the coronavirus. By April 11, 87 of China’s 100 largest cities had imposed some form of restriction on movement, according to Gavekal Dragonomics, an economic research firm.

The restrictions are again disrupting global supply chains for electronics, car parts and other goods, and dampening Chinese imports of oil, food and consumer goods. China is the world’s largest oil importer, and cooling demand there caused the International Energy Agency last week to trim its forecasts for oil demand growth this year to 1.9 million barrels a day, from an increase of 5.6 million barrels a day last year.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the sanctions imposed to punish Moscow, also threaten to tip European economies into recession. Last week, forecasters at Germany’s top economic institutes projected that a full European ban on Russian energy imports would cause German output to contract 2.2 percent next year and push inflation up to 7.3 percent, a record for postwar Germany.

Global trade growth is also expected to slow this year. The World Trade Organization expects world merchandise trade volumes to expand 3 percent this year, down from a previous forecast of 4.7 percent. But depending on how the pandemic and the war unfold, trade growth could be as low as 0.5 percent or as high as 5.5 percent, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the organization’s director general, said in a news conference last Tuesday.

The group forecast that global trade growth would rebound to 3.4 percent next year, though those estimates are also subject to change.

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