Russia’s Soyuz rockets were used to launch OneWeb satellites from French Guiana.
The Russian space agency may be willing to return 36 satellites it’s been keeping hostage in Kazakhstan in exchange for parts of its Soyuz rockets that are being held in French Guiana.
According to a report by Russian Space Web, French aerospace company Arianespace might be looking into a deal with Roscosmos to swap components of the Russian Soyuz rocket for 36 OneWeb satellites that have been held at its Kazakhstan launch site since March. Roscosmos’s newly appointed head Yuri Borisov is reportedly open to negotiations with Arianespace, a source told Russian Space Web.
Arianespace and OneWeb did not immediately respond to our request for confirmations of the Russian Space Web report. We’ll update this post should we hear back.
Under the helm of former Roscosmos head Dmitry Rogozin, the space agency severed ties with Europe in retaliation for Western-imposed sanctions against Russia. That included an ongoing deal it had with British company OneWeb to launch its internet satellites to orbit aboard the Soyuz rockets. OneWeb refused to agree to a list of unreasonable demands put forward by Roscosmos in March, prompting Russia to hold on to the company’s 36 satellites and store them indefinitely at its launch facility in Baikonur, Kazakhstan. OneWeb eventually forged new partnerships with SpaceX and India’s space agency to launch its remaining satellites to orbit, but its 36 lonesome satellites remained out of reach.
Roscosmos also halted its cooperation with Europe on Soyuz rocket launches from French Guiana and withdrew 87 employees from the launch site. But with Russian involvement in French Guiana terminated, the Soyuz rocket components were left abandoned, as Anatoly Zak writes at Russian Space Web:
On orders from Roskosmos head Dmitry Rogozin, dozens of Russian specialists were abruptly withdrawn from French Guiana in early March 2022, leaving behind the rocket stages, containers with propellant, support hardware and documentation. The Paris-based Arianespace company, which contracted Roskosmos to provide and support Soyuz launches with European and most non-Russian commercial payloads, took custody of the stored equipment until its expected return to Russia. However, due to the severe breakdown in diplomatic relations and economic activities between Europe and Moscow, the Russian hardware remained in French Guiana for the rest of 2022.
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With Russia gone from French Guiana, the European Space Agency is turning to U.S. company SpaceX to launch its upcoming Euclid telescope to orbit instead of launching it on board a Soyuz rocket.
Following Rogozin’s dismissal from his position at Roscosmos, the space agency could be taking a more diplomatic approach to its space partnerships. But it could still take some time. Russian Space Web’s source said some logistical hurdles still need to be addressed, which are causing negotiations to advance at a slow pace. For example, Russian specialists would need to obtain new visas to enter French Guiana and retrieve the rocket parts, a process made more difficult on account of Russia’s severed ties with Europe.
The previous year was tumultuous for both the Russian and European space industry; Russia lost key space partners while Europe scrambled to find ways of reaching orbit without access to Soyuz rockets. Whether or not this will change this year remains to be seen, but an ongoing swap agreement may be a good step for now.
More: Europe Has Few Options to Reach Space After Vega-C Rocket Crash
Falcon 9 launching a pair of communication satellites on December 17.Photo: SpaceX
SpaceX is finishing off the year strong, flying its Falcon 9 rocket three times in less than 34 hours to deliver various payloads to low Earth orbit.
So far this year, the company has successfully completed 59 orbital launches. SpaceX still has two more launches scheduled before the end of the year, which would fulfill CEO Elon Musk’s goal of 60 launches for 2022. In June, SpaceX performed three Falcon 9 launches in 36 hours and 18 minutes, but these most recent launches happened in a span of 33 hours and 46 minutes, setting a new record for the company, as Teslarati points out.
For the first of its recent three launches, a Falcon 9 carried the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission to orbit. The rocket took off from Space Launch Complex-4E at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California on December 16 at 6:46 a.m. ET. SWOT deployed as planned, beginning its three-year mission as the first satellite to conduct a global survey of Earth’s surface water to measure how it changes over time.
A little over 11 hours later, another Falcon 9 rocket took flight, departing Florida at 5:48 p.m ET. Friday’s second launch carried two communications satellites, the Boeing-built O3b mPower 1 and 2, to orbit for Luxembourg satellite operator SES.
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The third launch was a little closer to home for SpaceX, with the reusable rocket delivering more of the private company’s Starlink satellites to orbit. On December 17, a Falcon 9 launched at 4:32 p.m. ET with 54 satellites tucked into its payload fairing. So far, SpaceX has launched over 3,600 of its internet satellites to orbit, of which 3,284 are currently operational, according to stats collected by astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell. The use of its workhorse Falcon 9 has put the company way ahead of its competition, such as OneWeb, when it comes to building a megaconstellation of internet satellites in low Earth orbit.
SpaceX has two more launches scheduled this year. Multiple reports suggest that the company is planning on launching Falcon 9 on December 28 to deliver more Starlink satellites to orbit, according to Teslarati. There may even be a bonus launch on December 29, with the trusty launch vehicle carrying the Israeli EROS-C3 Earth imaging satellite.
SpaceX CEO Musk had previously stated that he’s aiming for a record-breaking 60 launches of the Falcon 9 rocket this year, so we’ll have to wait and see if the company manages to pull it off. SpaceX may very well succeed in its goal for 2022, but a big challenge awaits next year, with the CEO setting his sights on 100 launches in 2023.
More: Key SpaceX Launches Back on Track After Unexplained Delays
Artist’s conception of SUSIE performing a vertical landing (video sped 2.5 times). Gif: ArianeGroup/Gizmodo
French aerospace company ArianeGroup has revealed a concept for a reusable upper stage spacecraft that would be capable of delivering heavy payloads to space and carry out crewed missions before landing vertically back on Earth.
SUSIE, short for Smart Upper Stage for Innovative Exploration, was introduced to the world at the International Astronautical Congress held in Paris from September 18 to 22. The fully reusable upper stage could eventually serve as an automated freighter and payload transporter, as well as a spacecraft for crewed missions carrying a crew of up to five astronauts. SUSIE remains a concept for now, but if realized, the spacecraft would support various European space endeavours for years to come.
Reusability is fast becoming a necessity in modern spaceflight, as launch providers work to keep costs down. “It is our industrial duty to contribute to this ambition and offer European decision-makers smart and ambitious technological solutions capable of contributing to independent access to space, and also to open the door to European space exploration and address commercial and institutional needs for services in space over the coming decades,” Morena Bernardini, head of strategy and innovation at ArianeGroup, said in a statement.
Europe’s private space industry has fallen a bit behind its American counterparts in terms of developing reusable vehicles. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket is a reusable two-stage rocket that has flown to space nearly 200 times, while the company’s reusable Dragon capsules, whether for cargo or crews, are now in steady circulation. Boeing’s Starliner, a reusable crew capsule, recently completed its first uncrewed end-to-end test flight (although it was a less-than-perfect mission). Reusable launchers and vehicles aren’t so much the future as they are the present.
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Artist’s conception of SUSIE shortly after detaching from the second stage. Screenshot: Ariane Group
SUSIE will initially launch onboard the company’s heavy-lift Ariane 6 vehicle, which is scheduled for its inaugural flight in 2023. The large upper stage could be used to transport all sorts of payloads to orbit and even assist in the orbital construction of large infrastructure, such as space stations. For its return trip home, the spacecraft could be packed with upwards of 14,000 pounds (7 tons) of cargo and supplies.
“Missions made possible by SUSIE include towing, inspecting and upgrading satellites and other payloads, and supplying fuel, food, and equipment to space stations. It will also be able to carry out crew changeovers and facilitate human in-orbit activities,” ArianeGroup claimed in its statement. “It will also help reduce orbital debris and assist with removing or deorbiting end-of-life satellites.” SUSIE is meant to be entirely reusable and is designed to make a soft, vertical landing back on Earth. The upper stage would also be equipped with an abort safety system that covers the entire mission from liftoff to landing.
Aside from SUSIE, ArianeGroup is designing new heavy-lift reusable launchers as part of a proposal for the European Space Agency (ESA) for its NESTS (New European Space Transportation Solutions) initiative. The heavy-lift launchers could later be used to carry SUSIE to orbit. Europe may be late to the game, but it’s planning a solid entry into the business of reusable space vehicles.
More: Arianespace Reaches Deal With OneWeb, Setting Stage for Resumption of Suspended Launches
Let the games begin. No, not the acrimonious tussle between the final two candidates in the Conservative party’s leadership election — although you can watch that on the BBC on Monday. This week is the start of the Commonwealth Games in the UK’s second-largest city, Birmingham.
The opening day of the international sports fest will be marred by that other big event of the 2022 British summer: industrial action. The RMT will stage the latest in its series of walkouts over pay levels for rail industry workers on Wednesday, the same day that Aslef — representing train drivers — counts the votes in its strike ballot over members’ pay awards. The unrest continues to spread, with telecoms engineers and port workers either striking or balloting for industrial action over pay.
Across the Channel, energy ministers from EU member states will this week meet in Brussels to decide measures to end the European reliance on Russian fuel supplies. The prospects are not good, according to Europe Express newsletter writer Valentina Pop. On Sunday, President Vladimir Putin will have his opportunity to grandstand as Navy Fleet Day is celebrated in port cities across Russia.
If that is all too depressing, then perhaps it is worth celebrating the prospect of further significant compensation for the British postmasters made to suffer because of the faulty Horizon computer system. Former Supreme Court judge Lord John Dyson is expected to make an announcement on the final settlement for victims of the IT scandal following the government’s announcement of an interim payment totalling £19.5mn in June.
The pick of the election news this week is Tunisia’s vote on a new constitution. Politicians and analysts say there is little doubt that the charter, drawn up by populist leader Kais Saied, will be adopted even if they expect a low turnout.
Economic data
All eyes will be on Washington on Wednesday for the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate announcement. Expectations are for a tightening of the monetary policy machinery with a 75 basis point increase. At least one senior Fed governor would like the Federal Open Market Committee to go even further.
Then we will get the data on growth — did someone mention recession — with quarterly GDP figures for the US, Canada, France, Germany and the mass of eurozone countries.
Companies
We’ve hit peak earnings season with an A to Z (or at least X) of company names — ironic given that Tuesday’s list includes Alphabet.
The negative impact of the strong dollar has been seen across a range of US earnings calls this quarter. It is expected to surface as an issue again with a clutch of results announcements from Silicon Valley tech companies, which have some of the highest percentages of revenue from overseas.
Microsoft, which reports on Tuesday, has already cut its guidance based on the dollar, and Morgan Stanley issued a note last week saying the dollar could lead to disappointing guidance from Apple when it reveals its numbers on Thursday.
Attention will also be focused on the consumer goods industry with Unilever, Danone, Procter & Gamble, Reckitt Benckiser, Nestlé and Mondelēz all reporting this week. The concern among analysts is that shoppers are tightening their belts, choosing cheap own-label supermarket products over multinational brands. The decision by Unilever and others to raise their prices has not made the situation any easier.
OneWeb, a London-based satellite startup striving for global internet connectivity and a key competitor to Elon Musk’s StarLink satellite internet constellation, was set to launch a batch of 36 internet satellites Friday as part of its plan for a 648-satellite constellation. But those plans are now in jeopardy as Roscosmos, Russia’s space agency, appears set to roadblock the effort.
A Russian-built Soyuz rocket operated by France’s Arianespace SA was meant to deliver the satellites into low Earth orbit, launching from Russia-owned Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. OneWeb and Russia inked a multi-year deal for satellite launches, with the company launching its satellites exclusively on Russia’s Soyuz rocket.
But Dmitry Rogozin, Director General of Roscosmos and a former Deputy Prime Minister with a flair for inflammatory rhetoric, is refusing to go ahead with what should be a routine launch in response to UK sanctions on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine.
The agency is requiring that the UK government sell all stakes in OneWeb and that the company guarantees the satellites will not be used for military purposes, according toan ultimatum spelled out on Twitter from Roscosmos’ offical account. Roscosmos stressed the demands are “due to the UK’s hostile stance towards Russia” on Wednesday. The deadline for requests to be met is 9:30 pm Moscow time Thursday, Rogozin said in an interview with Russia 24.
OneWeb already has 428 satellites in orbit, with itslast launch of satellites just last month. The company is working to attract customers and pay back investors after the UK government and India’s BhartiGlobal saved itfrom bankruptcy in 2020.
Rogozin has tweeted flamboyant statements in the past in response to Western sanctions — namely in 2014 after the Russian annexation of Crimea. “After analyzing the sanctions against our space industry, I suggest to the USA to bring their astronauts to the International Space Station using a trampoline,” Rogozin said at the timeon Twitter following US sanctions against Russia’s space sector.
Despite Rogozin’s flamboyant tweets and interviews, the United States and Russia have historically cooperated in space. While tensions on Earth have led to threats of premature exit, Rogozin has promised Russia will remain NASA’s partner at the International Space Station at least until the station is eventually retired.
British lawmakers shown no sign of bending to Roscomos and submitting to demands. “There’s no negotiation on OneWeb: the UK Government is not selling its share,” tweeted Kwasi Kwerteng, UK Business and Energy Secretary on Wednesday. “We are in touch with other shareholders to discuss next steps…”
OneWeb did not immediately respond to CNN’s request for comment.
A long-exposure image showing a Starlink satellite train as viewed from Kansas on May 6, 2021. Photo: Reed Hoffmann (AP)
A new center established by the International Astronomical Union is seeking to protect the interests of astronomers as the number of satellites in Earth orbit continues to climb.
The Center for the Protection of the Dark and Quiet Sky from Satellite Constellation Interference, announced February 2, will be hosted by the National Optical-Infrared Astronomy Research Laboratory (NOIRLab) and the Square Kilometre Array Organization (SKAO). NOIRLab will concern itself with optical astronomy, while SKAO will look into issues related to radio astronomy.
“The new Centre is an important step towards ensuring that technological advances do not inadvertently impede our study and enjoyment of the sky,” Debra Elmegreen, the president of IAU, said in a statement. “I am confident that the Centre co-hosts can facilitate global coordination and bring together the necessary expertise from many sectors for this vital effort.”
The Centre will encourage satellite providers to minimize light pollution and other forms of astronomical interference, encourage governments and state officials to better regulate this blooming industry, and support the global community of astronomers who are now having to deal with problems caused by satellite interference.
Jessica West, a senior researcher on space security at Project Ploughshares, a Canadian peace and security research institute, said we’re reaching the point where our ability to observe space is being significantly harmed.
“This is a big problem,” she wrote to me in an email. “Astronomy is key to our exploration and use of space, deep space navigation, planetary defence from asteroids, and our knowledge of the Earth, Solar System, and Universe. And watching the night sky is core to who we are as humans. Losing that is a loss for every single person around the world.”
The cost of launching rockets and building satellites has never been lower. This is resulting in a mad rush to claim prime real estate in Earth orbit, as it now represents a viable place to do business. The private sector’s use of large fleets of interconnected satellites to provide broadband internet to paying customers is currently the most dominant example. Elon Musk has taken an early lead in this race for space, as SpaceX has now launched more than 2,000 Starlink satellites, with plans to launch at least 2,400 more. London-based OneWeb has launched hundreds of similar satellites, while Jeff Bezos’s Project Kuiper and the European Union intend to do the same.
The problem with so many satellites up there is that they’re messing with optical and radio observations. Long exposures at optical wavelengths are particularly affected; research from last month found a dramatic increase in the number of images taken during the twilight hours that contained streaks caused by Starlink satellites. That’s a problem for astronomy, but also for our security; views of the horizon at dusk and dawn are critical for detecting threatening near-Earth objects. At the same time, radio interference produced by satellite data downlinks could make it difficult to study the cosmic microwave background, for example.
Hence this coordinated response from astronomers. The IAU is positioning the new Center as the “the leading voice for astronomical matters that relate to the protection of the dark and quiet sky from satellite constellations and to act as a hub of information and resources to which any stakeholder group will be able to contribute and from which they can draw in support of their own activities.”
Accordingly, the group will call upon astronomers, satellite operators, government regulators, and the wider community to get involved. Satellite companies will be asked to provide more information about their space-based assets, such as coordinates and predicted movements. The group will also help astronomers to deal with associated problems, like providing software to remove visual artifacts from telescope images. The Centre will also encourage an open forum to discuss voluntary measures, such as reducing the reflectivity of satellites and for satellite companies to use higher, less obtrusive orbits.
West agrees that solutions exist.
“It’s a not a question of satellites versus astronomy, but rather how to mediate the different needs and interests and values that coalesce in outer space, including those that are less powerful,” she explained. “This requires open dialogue and coordinated and collective action. The international astronomy community is showing us how to do this. And the world is listening. This is a critical moment for space governance.”
This is a good and necessary starting point. Astronomers and regulators are currently behind in this struggle for space, if that’s a fair way to describe it, with satellite operators, for the most part, currently setting the rules. And by rules, I mean no rules—hence the problem. The IAU’s new Center has very good intentions. Let’s hope the relevant stakeholders are listening and willing to respond.
More: Elon Musk’s Starlink Is Causing More Streaks to Appear in Space Images.
A Starlink satellite streak appears in a ZTF image of the Andromeda galaxy, as pictured on May 19, 2021. Image: ZTF/Caltech
Researchers at the Zwicky Transient Facility in California have analyzed the degree to which SpaceX’s Starlink satellite constellation is affecting ground-based astronomical observations. The results are mixed.
The new paper, published in The Astrophysical Journal Letters and led by former Caltech postdoctoral scholar Przemek Mróz, offers some good news and some bad news. The good news is that Starlink is not currently causing problems for scientists at the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), which operates out of Caltech’s Palomar Observatory near San Diego. ZTF, using both optical and infrared wavelengths, scans the entire night sky once every two days in an effort to detect sudden changes in space, such as previously unseen asteroids and comets, stars that suddenly go dim, or colliding neutron stars.
But that doesn’t mean Starlink satellites, which provide broadband internet from low Earth orbit, aren’t having an impact. The newly completed study, which reviewed archival data from November 2019 to September 2021, found 5,301 satellite streaks directly attributable to Starlink. Not surprisingly, “the number of affected images is increasing with time as SpaceX deploys more satellites,” but, so far, science operations at ZTF “have not yet been severely affected by satellite streaks, despite the increase in their number observed during the analyzed period,” the astronomers write in their study.
The bad news has to do with the future situation and how satellite megaconstellations, whether Starlink or some other fleet, will affect astronomical observations in the years to come, particularly observations made during the twilight hours. Indeed, images most affected by Starlink were those taken at dawn or dusk. In 2019, this meant satellite streaks in less than 0.5% of all twilight images, but by August 2019 this had escalated to 18%. Starlink satellites orbit at a low altitude of around 324 miles (550 km), causing them to reflect more sunlight during sunset and sunrise, which creates a problem for observatories at twilight.
Astronomers perform observations at dawn and dusk when searching for near-Earth asteroids that might appear next to the Sun from our perspective. Two years ago, ZTF astronomers used this technique to detect 2020 AV2—the first asteroid entirely within the orbit of Venus. A concern expressed in the new paper is that, when Starlink gets to 10,000 satellites—which SpaceX expects to achieve by 2027—all ZTF images taken during twilight will contain at least one satellite streak. Following yesterday’s launch of a Falcon 9 rocket, the Starlink megaconstellation consists of over 2,000 satellites.
In a Caltech press release, Mróz, now at the University of Warsaw in Poland, said he doesn’t “expect Starlink satellites to affect non-twilight images, but if the satellite constellation of other companies goes into higher orbits, this could cause problems for non-twilight observations.” A pending satellite constellation managed by OneWeb, a UK-based telecommunications firm, will orbit at an operational altitude of 745 miles (1,200 km), for example.
Launch of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket with 49 Starlink satellites on board, as imaged on January 18, 2022. Photo: SpaceX
The researchers also estimated the fraction of pixels that are lost as a result of a single satellite streak, finding it to be “not large.” By “not large” they mean 0.1% of all pixels in a single ZTF image.
That said, “simply counting pixels affected by satellite streaks does not capture the entirety of the problem, for example resources that are required to identify satellite streaks and mask them out or the chance of missing a first detection of an object,” the scientists write. Indeed, as Thomas Prince, an astronomer at Caltech and a co-author of the study pointed out in the press release, a “small chance” exists that “we would miss an asteroid or another event hidden behind a satellite streak, but compared to the impact of weather, such as a cloudy sky, these are rather small effects for ZTF.”
SpaceX has not responded to our request for comment.
The scientists also looked into the measures taken by SpaceX to reduce the brightness of Starlink satellites. Implemented in 2020, these measures include visors that prevent sunlight from illuminating too much of the satellite’s surface. These measures have served to reduce the brightness of Starlink satellites by a factor of 4.6, which means they’re now at a 6.8 magnitude (for reference, the brightest stars shine at a magnitude 1, and human eyes can’t see objects much dimmer than 6.0). This marks a major improvement, but it’s still not great, as members of the 2020 Satellite Constellations 1 workshop asked that satellites in LEO have magnitudes above 7.
The current study only considered the impacts of Starlink on the Zwicky Transient Facility. Every observatory will be affected differently by Starlink and other satellites, including the upcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory, which is expected to be badly affected by megaconstellations. Observatories are also expected to experience problems as a result of radio interference, the appearance of ghost-like artifacts, among other potential issues.
More: Elon Musk Tweets Video of ‘Mechazilla’ Tower That Will Somehow Catch a Rocket.
The world got a stark reminder this week that Earth’s orbit is increasingly a crowded and potentially dangerous place. After the Russian military destroyed one of its defunct satellites in a weapons test early Monday morning, the crew of the International Space Station was forced to take shelter as high-speed debris passed uncomfortably close to the outpost. For now, satellites and space stations can simply maneuver away from threatening space junk, but we may be approaching a scenario in which snowballing collisions in orbit actually cut us off from space. Disturbingly, we may already be in the early stages of this process, known as Kessler Syndrome.
In 2015, the now-defunct foresight publication MISC Magazine reached out to me for its crisis issue. They asked me a simple question: “What looming potential crisis is nobody talking about?” Without hesitation, I replied Kessler Syndrome, and I said so because I found it weird that such an important issue—the loss of access to Earth orbit—was barely scratching the zeitgeist.
As I reflect on this answer some six years later, and given the appalling news that Russia just blew up one of its own satellites, I firmly stand by that answer. But while “nobody” was talking about the Kessler Syndrome back then, it’s certainly not the case now.
Indeed, awareness is steadily growing about the sorry state of low Earth orbit and the quantity of junk zipping around up there. An estimated 330 million bits of debris currently exist in space, in what is an absolutely eye-watering figure. Now, we obviously didn’t launch 330 million individual pieces of debris to orbit, but that’s exactly the issue: Objects in space can breakup into many smaller pieces, which can then smash into other objects, and so on and so on, resulting in the exponential creation of debris over time.
Donald Kessler saw this coming. In 1978, the NASA scientist warned that, as “the number of artificial satellites in earth orbit increases, the probability of collisions between satellites also increases. Satellite collisions would produce orbiting fragments, each of which would increase the probability of further collisions, leading to the growth of a belt of debris around the earth.” Because the belt would get increasingly dense over time, Kessler worried about it becoming “a significant problem during the next century.”
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This “run-away, self-sustained, cascading collision process,” as the European Space Agency describes Kessler Syndrome, is likely to boost the pace at which satellites get destroyed by fragmentary debris and other satellites, but also the pace at which debris begets more debris. (Only once has a satellite smashed into another satellite, and that happened in 2009 when the functioning Iridium 33 smashed into the defunct Kosmos-2251.) Large swaths of low Earth orbit, particularly the highly useful band between 560 miles and 870 miles (900-1,400 km), would eventually be made inaccessible for protracted periods of time, possibly for decades.
As early as 1991, Kessler said that “it is now necessary to begin limiting the number of expended rocket bodies and payloads in orbit.” Twenty years later, that’s an almost laughable proposition, given the frenetic tempo at which rockets are now being launched to space. Moreover, attempts to thwart the process may already be futile, as the rate at which space debris is being created is now higher than the rate at which debris is falling back into Earth’s atmosphere. Kessler was already aware of this in 2009.
“Modeling results supported by data from [U.S. Air Force] tests, as well as by a number of independent scientists, have concluded that the current debris environment is ‘unstable’, or above a critical threshold, such that any attempt to achieve a growth-free small debris environment by eliminating sources of past debris will likely fail because fragments from future collisions will be generated faster than atmospheric drag will remove them,” as he wrote.
The European Space Agency concurs, saying “generated collision fragments will start to dominate” in useful portions of low Earth orbit, and this “will be true even if all launch activities were to be discontinued now, which is an extremely unlikely development.”
As an aside, geosynchronous orbit, which rises about 22,000 miles (36,000 km) above Earth and hosts hundreds of satellites, is likewise not immune to Kessler Syndrome.
The phrase “Kessler Syndrome” was coined by John Gabbard, who tracked major satellite breakup events for NORAD, and it came into use without having a strict definition. Kessler would go on to clarify the term, saying it was “meant to describe the phenomenon that random collisions between objects large enough to catalogue would produce a hazard to spacecraft from small debris that is greater than the natural meteoroid environment.” He added that the “phenomenon will eventually become the most important long-term source of debris” unless we finally do something about it.
Kessler never claimed that a destructive cascade would appear over a short time frame, such as a few days or months, or that a cascade could be sparked by a single trigger event (the 2013 film Gravity portrayed such a scenario, in which the destruction of a Russian satellite led to a cascading ball of space junk that eventually destroyed the International Space Station). Indeed, a single trigger event is unlikely to wipe out satellites en masse, but collisions that create large volumes of debris can speed the process along. Russia, having shot down its Kosmos-1408 satellite earlier this week, has directly contributed to the process; its anti-satellite (ASAT) test produced thousands of new pieces of debris which will threaten spacecraft for years to come. The U.S., India, and China have performed similar tests, so there’s plenty of blame to go around.
Concerns exist that Envisat—a retired, 18,000-pound Earth observation satellite—could also trigger a catastrophic cascade should it somehow be destroyed, but as Kessler himself told Space Safety Magazine in 2012, that’s not likely. But it would accelerate the process by an order of magnitude, Kessler explained:
“The cascade process can be more accurately thought of as continuous and as already started, where each collision or explosion in orbit slowly results in an increase in the frequency of future collisions. But since Envisat is so massive, if the collision had occurred it would instantly [produce] a debris environment that, under the most optimistic conditions, we would not expect to have for at least 100 years. That is close to what most might call a ‘trigger’ event.”
Trends suggest we’ll continue to fuel Kessler Syndrome. Rocket launches are now cheaper than they’ve ever been, making space an increasingly viable place for conducting business activities. Miniaturization is allowing for the creation of smaller and cheaper satellites, but that means we can pump more satellites into space with each launch. And then there’s the trend towards satellite megaconstellations, in which fleets of orbiting spacecraft work in tandem to provide services such as broadband internet access. SpaceX, having launched over 1,700 Starlink satellites to orbit, is leading the megaconstellation charge, but other companies, such as OneWeb and Amazon, intend to send up similar systems.
Around 7,630 satellites are currently orbiting Earth, of which roughly 4,700 are functioning, according to ESA. Each object added to orbit results in an increased collision risk, and each collision in turn boosts the chance of future collisions. This “could make prospects for long-term viability of satellites in [low Earth orbit] extremely low,” as Louis de Gouyon Matignon, an expert in space law, writes in Space Legal Issues.
Indeed, the situation could get very grim. The unacceptably high density of debris would make Earth orbit an unsuitable place for satellites, space stations, and astronauts. In a kind of worst-case scenario, a cascading debris field would wipe out swaths of satellites and render portions of Earth orbit unusable to human activities, at least for a while. The debris cloud below 310 miles (500 km) would eventually fall back to Earth, but that would take a decade or more. As for the area above 372 miles (600 km), that could potentially remain off limits indefinitely, unless we find a way to manually clean things up.
I’ve previously detailed the implications of losing our satellites, but the Coles Notes version is that our ability to communicate would be severely hampered, GPS would be non-existent (along with those systems dependent upon it), space-based synchronization for timekeeping and navigation would grind to a halt, our financial systems would crash, we’d lose significant military capabilities, and we’d be deprived of our weather satellites, among many other things.
Very serious stuff. Most of us would prefer that we not return to the mid-20th century, and thankfully there are ways for us to reduce the volume of space debris. These include limiting the amount of space debris caused by routine space operations (such as the maintenance and repair of satellites in orbit), preventing in-space collisions (for example, by making all satellites maneuverable and prohibiting anti-satellite weapons tests), making satellites more resistant to impacts (such as through shielding), and by responsibly disposing of retired satellites (designing satellites that can deorbit themselves, for example). Finding new and effective ways to remove space junk is also critical.
We also need sensible constraints on the volume and types of objects that can be sent into space. Getting everyone on board, including public and private sectors, won’t be easy, but it’s necessary to maintain a healthy orbital ecology. Earth orbit is a very special place, and it’d be a shame to lose it.
More: Earth’s Low Orbit Needs Legal Protection Before It Becomes a Cosmic Junkyard.
Atlantis launched on Friday, July 8, 2011, at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center. This was the final launch of the space shuttle program.”/>
Enlarge / Space shuttle Atlantis launched on Friday, July 8, 2011, at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center. This was the final launch of the space shuttle program.
Welcome to Edition 4.06 of the Rocket Report! After years and years of promises, the era of suborbital space tourism is really and truly upon us. What a weekend we have coming up in launch: Richard Branson is set to make his long-awaited spaceflight aboard the rocket-powered VSS Unity on Sunday morning. I’ll be onsite, in New Mexico, to take in the scene and report back.
As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don’t want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.
Astra unveils plans for growth as it goes public. One week has passed since Astra became a publicly traded stock as part of a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. (The company’s stock, ASTR, is up about 10 percent during that time). In an interview with Ars, Astra CEO Chris Kemp said the company is using the funds raised from this transaction—about a half-billion dollars—to continue operations, accelerate growth toward a larger launch vehicle, and to become a space services company. The company’s next launch of its Rocket 3 series is on track for later this summer, and there are plans for two more launches this year. The company hopes to reach a monthly cadence by the end of 2021, Kemp said, and it is targeting a total of 15 launches next year.
Bigger rocket, same price … Rocket 3 has a payload capacity of 50 kg to a 500-km orbit. Following about eight more launches of this small Rocket 3, the company will move to Rocket 4, which will have a single engine with 40,000 pounds of thrust instead of the five smaller engines that power Rocket 3. This new rocket will have the capacity to lift about 200 kg to low Earth orbit. Notably, the company’s price per launch, about $3.5 million, will not increase as its rockets become more capable. “We will continue to increase the performance up to about 500 kilograms, and we will drive scale up and costs down,” Kemp said. Astra is also developing a spacecraft that Kemp envisions becoming the “iPhone” of space, where users can upload their “apps” onto the spacecraft, which already has power, thrust, and other capabilities. The goal is to make it easy for companies or small groups to develop a use case for space and test it in orbit—but not to actually have to build the satellite.
Webb telescope passes launch review test. The James Webb Space Telescope is one step closer to launch after a review of its Ariane launch vehicle, while NASA continues a separate review of the name of the spacecraft itself, SpaceNews reports. The European Space Agency announced July 1 that it, along with Arianespace, had successfully completed the final mission-analysis review for the launch of JWST on an Ariane 5.
Late November? … Two Ariane 5 launches are ahead of the Webb flight from Kourou, French Guiana. While both NASA and ESA are maintaining a formal “launch-readiness date” of October 31 for JWST, the schedule of upcoming launches suggests Webb will launch no earlier than the second half of November. Speaking at a June 30 “meeting of experts” held in place of a formal meeting of NASA’s Astrophysics Advisory Committee, Eric Smith, program scientist for the telescope at NASA, declined to give a specific launch date. “Historically, they have taken about 60 days between launches,” he said. “But we need to wait until the launch provider says this is the current schedule.” (submitted by EllPeaTea)
Shuttle landing facility converted into commercial space. As Space Florida’s Exploration Park fills up, the economic development agency is opening up new opportunities for commercial space near Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. After NASA turned the old Shuttle Landing Facility over to Space Florida, the entity is converting the facility into an area called the “Launch and Landing Facility.”
Lots of runway available … The utility-corridor project is more than a mile long and will provide power, water, and communications service to large portions of property adjacent to the landing facility, Space Florida said. It will open “development opportunities for companies wishing to join the Cape’s growing commercial space ecosystem,” the agency adds. Although Space Florida has not yet disclosed potential tenants, it notes that the landing facility has an air traffic control tower, navigational aids, fire and EMS services, and more.
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China launches three times in four days. China launched a data-tracking and relay communications satellite Tuesday, marking the country’s third successful mission in four days, SpaceNews reports. A Long March 3C lifted off from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center on Tuesday, sending a Tianlian-1 satellite into geosynchronous transfer orbit.
Many more to go this year … The mission was close on the heels of launches from each of the other two Chinese inland spaceports. (Those spaceports saw a Long March 2D and a Long March 4C lift off.) Tuesday’s launch was China’s 22nd of 2021, including one failure of a commercial rocket. The country’s institutional space corporation plans to launch more than 40 rockets this year. Chinese commercial companies are also planning launches this year, including LandSpace, iSpace, Deep Blue Aerospace, ExPace, and CAS Space. (submitted by Ken the Bin)
OneWeb reaches coverage milestone. Earlier this month Arianespace launched its eighth mission for the satellite company OneWeb, growing its constellation to 254 spacecraft, SpaceNews reports. After the 36 new satellites raise their orbit over the next month, they will complete OneWeb’s interim goal of expanding its footprint to the 50th parallel and above. They will cover Canada, Northern Europe, Alaska, the UK, and Arctic regions, ahead of partial commercial services before the end of this year.
Full constellation next year? … Using the Europeanized version of the Russian Soyuz rocket, OneWeb is aiming for four or five more satellite launches this year, and it needs 10 more to provide global services with a constellation of 648 satellites. OneWeb seeks to partner with enterprises and governments to provide connectivity rather than delivering services directly to consumers. (submitted by Ken the Bin)
Nauka gets a new launch date. After a delay due to a technical problem, Russia has rescheduled the launch of its spacious Nauka module to the International Space Station for July 21 at 14:54 UTC. The large science module will launch into orbit on a Proton booster from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan.
Not likely to be abandoned soon … According to Roscosmos, the Nauka module will dock to the nadir port of the Russian service module on July 29. This long-delayed segment of the space station will add much-needed research capacity to the Russian side of the ISS, and it suggests that, despite recent bluster, the Russians intend to participate in the space station program for years to come. (submitted by EllPeaTea)
The Blue Origin-ULA marriage is straining. On July 20, Jeff Bezos will fulfill the dream of a lifetime by climbing aboard his New Shepard spacecraft and taking a ride into space. Yet it seems unlikely that everyone in the space community will be celebrating. Bezos made his fortune at Amazon through competitive pricing and timely delivery of goods to his customers worldwide. But so far at least, his Blue Origin space company has been a less reliable vendor, Ars reports.
Sagging relationship … This has been especially of concern to United Launch Alliance, which is relying on Blue Origin-built engines for its new Vulcan rocket. The US Space Force is also watching, as it is counting on the Vulcan booster to help launch some of its most precious satellites into orbit. Blue Origin’s powerful BE-4 rocket engine is years late. Privately, multiple sources told Ars the relationship between Blue Origin and United Launch Alliance isn’t good. “There is great concern about this engine development,” one person in the industry said. “It’s much more than Tory Bruno is showing publicly. There is great concern that Blue is not putting enough attention and priority on the engine.”
Comparing performance of heavy-lift rockets. As part of a meeting of the planetary sciences decadal survey committee, NASA’s Launch Service Program presented a chart of characteristic energy (C3) for various existing and near-term commercial launch vehicles. Reporter Jeff Foust shared this chart on Twitter.
Digging into the details … There are plenty of interesting numbers on this chart, which shows that the expendable variant of the Falcon Heavy rocket is the most powerful booster available today for a planetary mission, with a 50 percent greater performance than the Delta IV Heavy.
Don’t expect SLS rocket to be used for science missions. In a briefing about the Space Launch System for members of the planetary science decadal survey this week, Robert Stough of NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center said that, if scientists are contemplating missions that require the use of the SLS, they should be talking with NASA now to secure manifest slots no earlier than the late 2020s or early 2030s.
Book your launch for next decade now? … “Given the demands of the Artemis program between now and the late 2020s,” he said, “it’s going to be very difficult to squeeze a science mission in that time frame.” While NASA has a goal of being able to launch three SLS missions in a 24-month period and two in 12 months, the supply chain is currently limited to one SLS per year, SpaceNews reports. That will change by the early 2030s, Stough said. It’s not clear there is much demand from science missions for an SLS launch, given its high cost. (submitted by Ken the Bin and EllPeaTea)
Next three launches
July 21: Proton | Nauka module | Baikonur, Kazakhstan | 14:54
July 27: Ariane 5 | Star One D2, Eutelsat Quantum | Kourou, French Guiana | TBD
July 30: Atlas V | Starliner OFT-2 | Cape Canaveral, Fla. | 18:53 UTC
