The Buffalo Bills enter the NFL season as the outright betting favorite for the first time since 1991, as the franchise continues to pursue its first Super Bowl title.
The Bills are listed at +600 at Caesars Sportsbook ahead of their season opener Thursday night against the defending champion Los Angeles Rams.
“We really think the Bills are the highest-power-rated team, but just as importantly is where they play,” SuperBook executive director and oddsmaker John Murray told ESPN. “The philosophy is the AFC West teams will beat each other up and that will allow the Bills to be in a favorable position to have the AFC Championship Game running through Buffalo.”
Caesars Sportsbook vice president of trading Craig Mucklow told ESPN: “With a rebuilding AFC East, the Bills are almost a certain lock for the playoffs and the clear front-runner for home field in January, which will make them a tough out for any visiting team.”
Following the Bills, the AFC West accounts for the next three teams in the conference with the shortest Super Bowl odds: the Kansas City Chiefs (11-1), Los Angeles Chargers (14-1) and Denver Broncos (16-1). Along with the Las Vegas Raiders (30-1), all four AFC West teams rank among the top seven for most Super Bowl bets, in terms of ticket volume, at Caesars. No other division has even three teams in the top 15.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at +750, are the second overall Super Bowl favorite, followed by the Rams (11-1) and Green Bay Packers (12-1) in the NFC. A large reason for that is the high volume of wagers they drew during Tom Brady’s brief retirement at 40-1 odds and their overall popularity at the betting window.
“They’re a team that takes money all year long,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN, sharing that he would rate Tampa Bay at 10-1 odds in a vacuum, if not for the heavy action it received all offseason.
The Raiders and Philadelphia Eagles have also received noteworthy attention. This week, the Eagles (+130) surpassed the Dallas Cowboys (+135) as the NFC East favorite at most sportsbooks. Mucklow attributed it to “very sharp money” over the weekend, though Avello noted that the Eagles support has come from both “sophisticated and unsophisticated” bettors.
“The big surprise so far is the love we’ve seen for the Raiders nationally and not just in Las Vegas,” Mucklow said. “They’re our biggest liability going into the season, and their 4-0 preseason gave the betting public even more reason to bet on the silver and black.”
The Raiders made significant changes this offseason, hiring coach Josh McDaniels and overhauling the front office. On the field, Vegas added five-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Davante Adams and two-time All-Pro defensive end Chandler Jones, among others.
“Any time a team makes a splash in any sport, it’s going to draw a lot of handle. The Raiders added some sexy names, and people want to talk themselves into it,” Murray said. “But the problem is the AFC West looks like the best division ever. I know it sounds like hyperbole, but I don’t think it is.”
The Cincinnati Bengals entered last season as 125-1 long shots and reached the Super Bowl. The longest odds of a Super Bowl champion over the past 22 years are the 2001 New England Patriots (60-1) and 2007 New York Giants (30-1).
An extremely popular all-time great as a betting underdog typically presents liability for sportsbooks, and Serena Williams delivered that damage with her upset in the second round of the US Open over No. 2 seed Anett Kontaveit.
Some books indicated notable losses due to a majority support of the 40-year-old American at approximately 2-to-1 odds in what many expect to be her final Grand Slam.
“It’s extremely unique to have such a sports icon at long odds you would never have gotten in their prime,” Caesars Sportsbook vice president of trading Craig Mucklow told ESPN, sharing the house took five times as many bets on Williams than Kontaveit. “This is a great story and the longer the run continues, the more action we’ll see backing Serena, for sure.”
The six-time US Open champ entered the tournament as a 50-1 long shot. Her odds lowered to 30-1 after her first-round victory and now sit at 14-1.
“The futures position is ugly,” SuperBook executive director and oddsmaker John Murray told ESPN. “Liabilities can add up in a hurry at big numbers. The betting always picks up in the late rounds, and the interest around Serena will skyrocket if she keeps winning.”
Given the growing legalization of sports betting across many states, it is difficult to compare betting handle to previous years. However, operators shared they are seeing much more betting interest in this tournament, given it could be Williams’ final run. Caesars said it is experiencing 10 times the handle on her matches in this tournament compared to 2021.
“Certainly a much bigger handle for the early matches,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN, also sharing they saw “fantastic” action for her second-round upset. “I would assume that trend will hold serve throughout. Liability in the futures continues to grow and will continue to multiply if she proceeds to keep winning.”
To cater to the increased interest in this US Open, Caesars also offered index betting on how far she would last in the tourney. Bettors could wager in advance on the particular round she would be eliminated, which was not typically offered before.
Hank Goldberg, who worked at ESPN as an NFL reporter and handicapping expert for two decades, died Monday on his 82nd birthday, his family confirmed.
Goldberg had been in treatment for chronic kidney disease in recent years.
Known as Hammering Hank, Goldberg was .500 or better in 15 of 17 NFL seasons while predicting games at ESPN. He made appearances on NFL Countdown and ESPN Radio and contributed to the network’s thoroughbred racing coverage.
Goldberg had also been a contributor on ESPN’s Daily Wager throughout the sports betting show’s existence, doing weekly hits during the NFL season and occasional appearances around the Triple Crown races. His last appearance on ESPN was in May, when he did a phone interview from the Kentucky Derby.
Art Manteris, a recently retired, longtime Las Vegas bookmaker, spent his 40-year career trying to fight off wise guys, but quickly learned to respect Goldberg. The two struck up a friendship that lasted over three decades.
They enjoyed a meal together last week, a pastrami on rye from Weiss Deli, one of Goldberg’s favorite Las Vegas spots, Manteris said.
“I can assure you, he was no phony,” Manteris told ESPN of Goldberg’s handicapping prowess. “The Hammer always put his money where his mouth was, and that immediately earned him a high level of respect with me. As a longtime Las Vegas bookmaker, there were few opinions I valued more than Hank’s on the NFL.”
Goldberg was also a longtime fixture in Miami, serving as a local radio and TV host for more than 25 years and working as a Dolphins radio analyst. He began his career in the 1970s as an assistant to handicapper Jimmy “The Greek” Snyder.
The 2022 U.S Open Championship returns to Brookline Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts, for the first time since 1988, with a loaded field of 156 golfers vying for the top 60 spots to advance. 2011 U.S. Open winner Rory McIlroy enters the weekend as the favorite after winning the RBC Canadian Open last weekend. McIlroy will have to beat out a tough field including defending champion Jon Rahm, PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas and Masters winner Scottie Scheffler.
Where is the betting value? Will the favorites prevail? Our golf and betting experts break down the field for the third major of the year.
Jump to a section: Experts’ picks to win | Betting value picks to win | Notable golfers odds | Props and more
Expert picks
Matt Barrie, ESPN Winner: Rory McIlroy
Charlotte Gibson, ESPN.com Winner: Will Zalatoris
Andy North, ESPN Winner: Justin Thomas
Mark Schlabach, ESPN.com Winner: Shane Lowry
Marty Smith, ESPN Winner:Tony Finau
Curtis Strange, ESPN Winner: Cameron Smith
Wright Thompson, ESPN.com Winner: Dustin Johnson
Paolo Uggetti, ESPN.com Winner: Rory McIlroy
Tom VanHaaren, ESPN.com Winner: Rory McIlroy
Scott Van Pelt, ESPN Winner: Will Zalatoris
Kevin Van Valkenburg, ESPN.com Winner: Will Zalatoris
Josh Weinfuss, ESPN.com Winner: Scottie Scheffler
Betting value picks to win
Our betting experts give you picks to win based on value. We look at the betting board and tell you who has the best chance to cash your ticket.
Michael Collins, ESPN senior golf analyst Winner: Sam Burns (25-1)
Why he’ll win: Burns has three wins already this season and is hot coming off his past three starts. At 25-1, he has plenty of value in a stacked field.
Anita Marks, ESPN betting analyst Winner: Sungjae Im (40-1)
Why he’ll win: Im plays well on the big stage (T-2 and T-8 at the Masters, T-17 at the PGA Championship). He checks many of the boxes when looking at the metrics needed to win at Brookline, ranking 29th in driving accuracy, seventh in greens in regulation and third in scrambling this season.
David Bearman, sports betting deputy editor, ESPN.com Winner: Justin Thomas (11-1)
Why he’ll win: Thomas turned in another incredible performance last week in Canada with a 63-64 weekend to almost chase down Rory McIlroy. He is third on tour tee-to-green and shots gained overall, 6th on approach and 14th off the tee. Thomas is arguably the hottest golfer on tour right now and finally got past the “second major” drought last month. No. 3 should be in the cards this weekend.
Chris Fallica, ESPN betting analyst Winner: Dustin Johnson (40-1)
Why he’ll win: Johnson is a past U.S. Open champion and has enjoyed a stretch of five top-six finishes in seven years. This course will mandate long, accurate play off the tee, and that’s right up DJ’s alley. He hasn’t had the best of years, but at this price, he’s absolutely worth a play.
Why he’ll win: Schauffele has never won a major but has always been in contention at the U.S. Open. He’s played the event five times in his career and has a T-5, T-6, T-3, 5 and T-7. Schauffele always seems to play his best when the conditions are most treacherous and the field is the deepest. It’s time for the X-Man to breakthrough with his first major win.
Joe Fortenbaugh, ESPN betting analyst Winner: Shane Lowry (35-1)
Why he’ll win: Lowry just produced a T-10 in Canada to go with his T-3 finishes at both the Masters and RBC Heritage and outright second-place result at the Honda Classic. He currently ranks ninth on tour in strokes gained: approach the green, which is integral at a track like Brookline with postage stamp greens.
Odds of winning the 2022 U.S. Open
Props and more
Our betting experts have more than just bets to win. Here are some props to target for the entire event, from top 10s to made cuts to tournament matchups.
Dustin Johnson top-10 finish (+400) Bearman: This pick isn’t about the LIV Tour, but about getting 4-1 top-10 value on a former No. 1 player in the world, who has a strong résumé of playing well on Northeast courses. He has six top 10s at the U.S. Open, including a win in 2016. He hasn’t been great this year at all, but if he brings his A-game and golfs with a chip on his shoulder, this could cash as well as the 40-1 payout to win.
Collin Morikawa top-10 finish (+175) Bearman: I’ll be playing Morikawa to win and top-10 as he is arguably the tour’s premier ball-striker and this course demands that type of game. His struggle has always been the putter, but Morikawa figured it out at the two previous majors. This course is tailor-made for a guy fifth on approach and 20th off the tee, and a third leg of grand slam is not out of the question.
Bryson DeChambeau top-5 finish (+800) Collins: DeChambeau is healthy and surprisingly under the radar this week. This is a literal “bang for the buck” bet. He’s going to try to do what he did at Winged Foot to win that U.S. Open.
Playoff to Decide the Winner (+310) Collins: Media members hate hearing the word playoff in golf, but this week has all the potential for a three- to four-man playoff. A lot of guys look like their games are peaking right now.
Xander Schauffele top-10 finish (+225) Fallica: While Schauffele hasn’t broken through for a major championship win, he’s excelled on U.S. Open courses. He has posted five Top 10s in each of his five appearances, with three top-fives. Schauffele ranks seventh in strokes gained: tee-to-green and ninth in strokes gained: total. That well-rounded game should yield another strong weekend at the U.S Open.
Viktor Hovland to miss cut (+225) Fallica: Hovland doesn’t have a Top 20 in a stroke play event since March and has never finished in the Top 10 in a major. He’s also terrible around the green — 204th in strokes gained around the green — and given the small size of these greens, that could spell trouble for him this weekend.
Max Homa top-20 finish (+160) Marks: Homa’s first two tour wins were both on major championship quality courses. He T5 at the Memorial — where he only needed 99 putts that week, and T-13 at the PGA Championships last month.
Adri Arnaus top-40 finish (2-1) Marks: Arnaus has the distance to compete this week. He has dominated the DP World Tour, finished T-30 at the PGA Championship, and is the second-best player from Spain, behind Jon Rahm.
The most-heavily-bet Kentucky Derby ever was won by the biggest long shot in the field.
A record $179.0 million was bet in the pari-mutuel pool on Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, a 17% increase over last year and 8% greater than the previous record set in 2019, according to the Churchill Downs. Only $501,135 of the total amount wagered on the win pool was on Rich Strike, the lowest of any horse in the field, according to figures released by the track.
Rich Strike, who went off at 80-1, sprinted past favorites Epicenter and Zandon in the final moments to pull off the second-largest upset in the race’s 148-year history Saturday at Churchill Downs.
Rich Strike was an even bigger long shot in Nevada, where sportsbooks had offered odds on the Kentucky Derby winner since early in the year. Rich Strike could be found as long as 300-1 in March and at 200-1 on Saturday at Las Vegas sportsbook Circa. The long odds attracted a flurry of late bets on Rich Strike, turning what was a big win for most Nevada bookmakers into a small loser for Circa.
“People love the longest shots on the board, so we took a lot of little bets [on Rich Strike], $25, $50, here and there,” Paul Zilm, a risk supervisor who oversees Circa’s horse racing offerings, told ESPN. “It turned it into a small loss for us.”
Rich Strike wasn’t even in the Derby field until Friday after a late scratch. Circa re-added the colt to its post-draw pool on Friday morning. Zilm estimated that he took 75-100 bets on Rich Strike, many placed in the last 15 minutes prior to the race in 125-1 to 150-1 range, nearly double what the track odds were.
“That added up quickly, but if I did it all over again, I probably wouldn’t change much,” Zilm said. “Long-shot bettors got their wish.”
Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale, the Houston furniture store owner known to make big bets, wasn’t as lucky. McIngvale told the Las Vegas Review-Journal that he lost $2.6 million betting on the Derby, $1.5 million of it on a straight bet on favorite Epicenter to win. McIngvale used his big bets on the Derby to mitigate at promotion at his furniture store, Gallery Furniture, that offered to refund purchases of at least $3,000 if the favorite won the Kentucky Derby.
While Circa Sports came up on the short end, other Las Vegas sportsbooks did well on Rich Strike’s upset. The SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas said it took “maybe 10” bets on Rich Strike to the win the Derby in its futures pool.
“[We] held almost the whole pool,” Ed Salmons, vice president of risk management at the SuperBoook, told ESPN.
Jump ahead: Game of the night | Picks and props | Analytics edge
What you need to know for Saturday’s playoff games
Losing Luka: The Mavericks will be without Luka Doncic for Saturday’s matinee matchup with the Jazz. Jalen Brunson sees his usage and assist rates swell to star levels whenever Doncic is off the floor. The Villanova product has averaged 22.1 points and 7.5 assists per 36 minutes with Doncic off the court this season, compared to 18.4 and 5.4 with him on. In addition to Brunson, scoring microwave Spencer Dinwiddie has shined in such scenarios; his usage rate spikes a team-high 9.1% to go with an uptick of 13 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Doncic off the floor. Center Dwight Powell, on the other hand, sees his scoring clip dip significantly whenever Doncic isn’t on the court.
Steph Effect: Steve Kerr joked Stephen Curry is not playing 38 minutes in Saturday’s return from a foot injury, but wouldn’t go into specific limitations for his superstar guard. A notable outcome of Curry’s likely return is how extreme Jordan Poole’s splits prove with his teammate this season. The Most Improved Player candidate has averaged 25.1 points, 5.8 dimes and 10.3 3-point attempts per 36 minutes with Curry off the court, but his rates dip to 18.2, 3.5 and 7.6 when they share the floor. If Curry can return to form, it’s relevant that Denver has ceded 50.2 DraftKings points per game to point guards this season, fourth most in the league.
Point Forward: Without a true traditional point guard, the Toronto Raptors often disperse distribution duties between a few key playmakers. Forward Pascal Siakam has been particularly dominant against the 76ers this season, posting his third career triple-double in a victory just a few weeks back. Serving as a creator for Toronto against a Sixers team he has averaged 8.3 dimes against this season makes Siakam’s passing prop of 4.5 assists stand out, as does his potential to flirt with tourney-tilting DFS production.
Swat Watch: The Grizzlies’ Jaren Jackson Jr. paced the entire league by 40 blocks this season. This elite defender posted a dozen swats facing the Timberwolves in four games this season, his most against any single opponent. With a block prop of 1.5 with heavy juice and plus money for 2.5 blocks on most books, “JJJ” heads into Saturday’s opener against Minnesota with value for defensive props as the league’s top rim protector.
— Jim McCormick
Game of the night
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers 6 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Notable: The Raptors have won four of their past five games as underdogs.
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Erin Dolan shares her favorite bet in the first-round series between the Raptors and 76ers.
Best bet: Tobias Harris under 1.5 made 3s. Harris shot 18.8% from 3-point range in four matchups against the Raptors during the regular season. Toronto’s defense has continued to improve down the stretch and will likely limit Harris. — Erin Dolan
Best bet: Pascal Siakam over 23.5 points. Siakam was big down the stretch, averaging 27.0 PPG in his last 20 games, going over 23.5 points in 14 of the 20 games. He has been even better still against the 76ers in particular, averaging 30.3 PPG on 50.7 FG% with at least 26 points in all three of his matchups with them this season. — André Snellings
Best bet: Scottie Barnes over 0.5 made 3s. Barnes isn’t known for his ability to shoot 3s, but he has averaged 2.6 per game. He has made a triple in five of his past six games and two of his three games against the 76ers during the regular season. — Eric Moody
Breaking down the rest of the slate
Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks 1 p.m. ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas
Notable: The home team has won each of the past seven games between the Jazz and Mavericks.
Best bet: Rudy Gobert over 14.5 rebounds. Gobert’s rebound prop seems high, but he needs to dominate on the glass, and I don’t see the Mavericks having an answer after they traded Kristaps Porzingis to Washington. Gobert has hit this over in five of his past eight games. While he has not hit it in three straight games, the former two against elite competition, he went off with 21 rebounds against Memphis and 20 rebounds against Golden State. You can count on Gobert to step up in big games. — Dolan
Best bet: Jazz -5. With Doncic ruled out, the Mavericks will be without the player responsible for the vast majority of their success this season. The Jazz come in with a distinct advantage, and if they get any hint of the type of “Playoffs Donovan Mitchell” explosion that they typically get from him in the postseason, they should be in better shape still. — Snellings
Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies 3:30 p.m. ET, FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tenn.
Notable: Each of the Grizzlies’ past nine playoff games has gone over the total.
Best Bet:Over 235 points. The Timberwolves rank seventh in points scored per 100 possessions and the Grizzlies rank fourth. Additionally, both teams score a lot of points on transition plays. There will be plenty of possessions in this game, which bodes well for the over. Thirty-six of the Timberwolves’ past 52 road games have gone over the total — Moody.
Best bet: Memphis 1H (-4.5). The Grizzlies were the best team in the league in the first half of the regular season, going 54-27-1. Memphis is also 8-2 ATS in the 1H overall and at home over the past 10 games. Both these teams play at some of the fastest paces in the league. I think the Grizzlies jump out quickly and put up a ton of points. — Dolan
Best bet:Anthony Edwards over 22.5 points. Edwards averaged 24.4 PPG over an 11-game stretch to close out the regular season. The Grizzlies’ defense will be tough to beat, but Edwards scored 23, 27 and 30 points in his three previous games against them this season. This could be his moment to shine. — Moody
Best bet: Desmond Bane over 27.5 points + assists + rebounds. Bane enjoyed a breakout second season in the league. While Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. get a great deal of attention and rightfully so, Bane has been an integral part of the Grizzlies’ success. He averaged 18.2 PPG during the regular season, and the Timberwolves have allowed 23 PPG, 5.1 APG, and 7.0 RPG. Bane will likely meet or exceed these per-game averages on Saturday afternoon. — Moody
Best Bet: Patrick Beverley under 9.5 points. Beverley had seven points against the Clippers, but boy was he fired up after the Timberwolves’ win over the Clippers. It is only right to fade him in this matchup. He has averaged nine points in his past four games against the Grizzlies and has hit over his points prop in only two of the past 10 games. — Dolan
Best Bet: Karl-Anthony Towns under 24.5 points. Towns has stepped back offensively down the stretch, in part to allow Anthony Edwards to shine. Towns averaged 22.4 PPG in his last 10 regular season games, going under 24.5 points in six of those outings, then managed only 11 points before fouling out in the Wolves’ play-in game victory over the Clippers. Towns has faced the Grizzlies four times this season, averaging 23.3 PPG, and scored 22 points against them in their last outing. — Snellings
Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors 8:30 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco
Notable: The Warriors have failed to cover the spread in seven of their past eight playoff games as favorites.
Best bet: Nuggets +6.5 points. There’s a good chance that the Warriors get Stephen Curry back for Game 1, marking one of the only times this season that their team would have its five best players playing together. They have huge upside, but could have some growing pains as Curry knocks the rust off and everyone gets used to playing together again. The Nuggets finished the season well, going 25-10 in the last 35 games that Nikola Jokic played in, and went 3-1 outright in their four matchups with the Warriors this season. — Snellings
Best bet: Draymond Greenover 23.5 points + assists + rebounds. Green will be the Warriors’ most important player in this series. He has averaged 7.0 PPG, 10.3 APG and 8.0 RPG in his past four games against the Nuggets. Power forwards thrived against the Nuggets during the regular season and averaged 22 PPG, 3.5 APG and 10.5 RPG — Moody
Analytics Edge
BPI highest projected totals
1. Memphis Grizzlies (117.4 points) 2. Golden State Warriors (114.9 points) 3. Minnesota Timberwolves (110.4 points)
BPI lowest projected totals
1. Toronto Raptors (104.1 points) 2. Utah Jazz (108.3 points) 3. Philadelphia 76ers (108.7 points)
BPI top probability to win (straight up)
1. Memphis Grizzlies (72.5%) 2. Golden State Warriors (68.4%) 3. Philadelphia 76ers (66.2%)
The NFL divisional round for the 2021 season is stacked with four great matchups, and we got you covered with what you need to know heading into the second weekend of playoff football. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, a bold prediction for each matchup and, of course, final score picks.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. Matt Bowen picks out a key matchup to watch for every game, and Kevin Seifert tells us what to know about the officiating. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL playoff football.
Let’s get into the full divisional-round slate, which features the six wild-card game winners from last week and each conference’s No. 1 seed, fresh off a bye week. The weekend culminates with a Sunday night matchup between the Bills and Chiefs, which has the makings of one of the best games of the season.
Jump to: CIN-TEN | SF-GB LAR-TB | BUF-KC
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | CBS Matchup rating: 60.3 | Spread: TEN -3.5 (47.5)
What to watch for: The Titans have generated 35 sacks and 153 QB pressures using just a four-man pass rush (both ranked second in the NFL), and they have blitzed on only 18% of their rushes this season. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow’s QBR was 83.7 against the blitz this season (third), but his 13.6 QBR when pressured was 20th. Impacting Burrow with the front four and dropping seven into coverage will be the key to the Titans winning the game. — Turron Davenport
Bold prediction: Burrow will outgain Titans running back Derrick Henry by 200 yards (obviously including passing yardage). That’s what it will take for Cincinnati to upset top-seeded Tennessee. Burrow has been in great form the past several weeks, so expect Cincinnati to ride the quarterback’s hot hand as it looks to push the tempo in Henry’s expected return. — Ben Baby
Stat to know: Over the final three weeks of the regular season, Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill posted a 79.4 Total QBR (third best in the NFL over that span), threw seven touchdown passes and didn’t have a single interception. But he also did a lot on the ground this year, as his seven rushing touchdowns were the league’s second most among quarterbacks behind Jalen Hurts’ 10.
Bowen’s game-plan key: Cincinnati needs to create matchups for receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd out of inside alignments to beat the Titans’ underneath zone defenders. Read more on E+.
Injuries: Bengals | Titans
What to know for officiating: Referee Clete Blakeman, whose regular-season crew ranked No. 7 in the NFL with 14.6 flags per game, will preside over a game that includes the NFL’s least penalized team (Bengals, 84). The Titans, meanwhile, ranked No. 17 with 121 flags. Blakeman tied for the second-most roughing-the-passer flags during the regular season (12), but the Bengals and Titans committed only two such fouls apiece. — Seifert
Betting nugget: Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel is 8-0 both outright and against the spread with at least nine days between games. Read more on E+.
Baby’s pick: Bengals 37, Titans 31 Davenport’s pick: Titans 28, Bengals 24 FPI prediction: TEN, 59.5% (by an average of 3.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bengals DE Hendrickson clears concussion protocol, OK to play Saturday … Titans’ Henry passes test with contact practice … Why Burrow has kept a chessboard by his locker this season … ‘I play to win games’: Confident Tannehill brushes off critics as Titans begin playoffs
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET | Fox Matchup rating: 76.2 | Spread: GB -6 (47)
What to watch for: There’s cold, and then there’s Lambeau Field cold. It will be the latter on Saturday night, with temperatures in the single digits expected throughout the game. Earlier in the year, Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers said, “the colder, the better.” But Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo might not feel the same way. Since 2014, there have been 101 different starting quarterbacks in games with kickoff temperatures below 40 degrees, and Garoppolo isn’t one of them. Even during his time in New England, he took only three snaps in games when it was below 40 at kickoff, and all three were kneel-downs. — Rob Demovsky
Bold prediction: In a game that feels like it could go either way, Packers kicker Mason Crosby will send his team back to the NFC Championship Game with a second game-winning field goal in the closing seconds in as many games against San Francisco this season. The Niners have the run game and physical defensive front to keep this close, but Rodgers will find the late-game magic once again to set Crosby up for the winning points. — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: The 49ers use pre-snap motion on an NFL-high 77% of their plays, and they used it on a season-high 88% of their plays in the Week 3 loss to the Packers. However, they averaged a season-low 5.0 yards per play with motion in that game. One player whom the Packers will have to watch on pre-snap movement is receiver/running back Deebo Samuel, who is seeking to become the fifth 49ers player to reach 100 scrimmage yards and score a touchdown in consecutive playoff games.
Bowen’s game-plan key: Look for Green Bay to hit wide receiver Davante Adams on first down off play-action. His 22 such receptions tied for the league lead. Read more on E+.
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Rob Ninkovich says Aaron Rodgers knows he’s come up short in the postseason and that this might be one of his last chances at a Super Bowl.
Injuries: 49ers | Packers
What to know for officiating: Referee Ron Torbert’s regular-season crew threw the fourth-fewest flags (12.3 per game), and he was assigned to a game that includes the NFL’s second-least penalized team (Packers, 86) and the 14th-least (49ers, 117). San Francisco cornerback Josh Norman, who has been in and out of the team’s lineup, has by far the most penalties of any player in this game (10), including six for defensive pass interference. — Seifert
Betting nugget: The over is 14-6 in playoff games when Rodgers is starting, including 6-0 since 2016 and 4-0 with coach Matt LaFleur at the helm for Green Bay. Read more on E+.
Wagoner’s pick: Packers 26, 49ers 24 Demovsky’s pick: Packers 31, 49ers 17 FPI prediction: GB, 64.5% (by an average of 4.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Samuel created his own position: ‘Wide back’ … What return of Alexander, Smith, others would mean for Packers’ playoff chances … Confident San Francisco defense makes 49ers a contender for NFC title … Top moments from the 49ers-Packers rivalry … Garoppolo has ‘slightly’ sprained throwing shoulder
What to watch for: The Rams have been short-handed in their secondary, but the Bucs might be without All-Pro right tackle Tristan Wirfs, who suffered a high ankle sprain last week against the Eagles. That’s a big blow for Tampa Bay against arguably the league’s most devastating pass rush. The Buccaneers might need to rely more on their defense, which nearly pitched a shutout last week against the Eagles but surrendered 331 passing yards and four touchdowns to Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford & Co. in these teams’ Week 3 meeting (a 34-24 win for Los Angeles). — Jenna Laine
Bold prediction: Stafford and Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady will each pass for three touchdowns in a game that will be decided in the final minutes. The Rams acquired Stafford with the belief that the veteran QB would play a key role in propelling them to a Super Bowl inside their home stadium. Stafford will have the chance to prove he’s that guy against a seven-time Super Bowl winner. He knows he’ll have to get his team into the end zone often to counter Brady and the Tampa Bay offense; Brady’s 32 touchdown passes in 16 career divisional-round games are 14 more than any other QB has thrown. So watch for both quarterbacks’ numbers to be off the charts. — Lindsey Thiry
Stat to know: Will Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey shadow Tampa Bay receiver Mike Evans? Evans saw Ramsey across from him on just 18% of his routes in the regular-season matchup in Week 3, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And in two games against the Rams over the past two years, Evans caught eight of 10 passes for 101 yards when seeing someone else. Against Ramsey, he pulled in five of nine passes for 54 yards.
Bowen’s game-plan key: Expect Brady to look for Buccaneers tight end Rob Gronkowski in the middle of the field. Gronk caught 38 of his 55 total receptions this season on throws inside the numbers. Read more on E+.
Injuries: Rams | Buccaneers
What to know for officiating: Referee Shawn Hochuli’s regular-season crew threw the third-most flags (15.5 per game), but the Rams and Buccaneers were among the league’s 10 least penalized teams in 2021. The Rams ranked No. 3 (92), and the Buccaneers ranked No. 9 (107). Hochuli’s crew made 57 calls for offensive holding (third most), but the Rams and Buccaneers were flagged only 16 and 20 times for it, respectively (both within the seventh fewest in the NFL). — Seifert
Betting nugget: Since 2010, Los Angeles is 8-1 against the spread when facing Tampa Bay, including 2-1 under coach Sean McVay. And the past five meetings went over the total. Read more on E+.
Thiry’s pick: Buccaneers 34, Rams 32 Laine’s pick: Buccaneers 31, Rams 28 FPI prediction: TB, 65.8% (by an average of 5.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: The making of Kupp: Rams receiver credits wife’s inspiration for star turn … Arians: Likely to come down to wire whether Buccaneers RT Wirfs can play Sunday … Stafford: Toe won’t be prohibitive against Bucs … Source: Arians fined $50K for striking safety Adams … Rams’ defense sets tone in wild-card win, readies for rematch with Brady
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET | CBS Matchup rating: 96.3 | Spread: KC -2 (53.5)
What to watch for: The Bills did a great job of shutting down the big plays when they faced Patrick Mahomes in Week 5, limiting the Chiefs to one pass longer than 20 yards. Buffalo, meanwhile, connected on four passes of at least 30 yards, with two going for touchdowns. The Chiefs have to find a way to win — or at least stay even with the Bills — in this category, or they might experience another result like that 18-point beatdown. — Adam Teicher
Bold prediction: Bills quarterback Josh Allen will rush for at least 50 yards and throw at least three touchdown passes on Sunday. The Bills’ offense has rushed for 110-plus yards and averaged at least 4.0 yards per carry in six straight games, the second-longest streak in the NFL this year (Eagles). That streak has coincided with Allen being used more as a rusher, which will continue against the Chiefs. He had 59 yards on 11 carries in their meeting earlier this year. Additionally, the offensive line will keep him clean, extending its sackless streak to five games, and allow him to build on a five-pass-TD wild-card outing in a much closer divisional-round game. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: Mahomes leads the NFL in play-action touchdowns, while Allen ranks second. Both quarterbacks have top-10 QBR numbers on play-action plays, as well. But the defensive side of things could be important: The Bills have allowed the league’s lowest opponent QBR with play-action, while the Chiefs’ defense has allowed the league’s highest.
Bowen’s game-plan key: Kansas City running back Jerick McKinnon should play an important role in the Chiefs’ screen game against Buffalo’s two-deep zone coverages. Read more on E+.
play
1:27
Rob Ninkovich says the Chiefs’ key to victory against the Bills will be going toe-to-toe with a top defense.
Injuries: Bills | Chiefs
What to know for officiating: Referee John Hussey’s regular-season crew threw the third-fewest flags per game (12.1), but he has been assigned to officiate two of the most penalized teams in the league. The Bills ranked No. 29 (139) and the Chiefs No. 24 (129). The Chiefs were flagged for 36 offensive holding fouls, third most in the NFL, while Hussey’s crew called 40, the sixth most among crews. Hussey’s crew called the league’s second-most taunting fouls (seven), but it threw the fewest flags for illegal contact, defensive holding and defensive pass interference combined (18). — Seifert
Betting nugget: Buffalo road games are 12-4-1 to the over in the past two seasons. Read more on E+.
Getzenberg’s pick: Bills 34, Chiefs 31 Teicher’s pick: Chiefs 27, Bills 24 FPI prediction: BUF, 52.1% (by an average of 0.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Manning-Brady 2.0? Why Mahomes vs. Allen could be AFC’s next great QB rivalry … Mahomes is preparing for his next job as team owner … Allen’s elaborate handshakes with Bills teammates about more than just having fun … McKinnon gives Chiefs something to think about at running back … Bills’ No. 1 defense faces stiffer test vs. much-improved Mahomes … Chiefs’ Gay arrested on misdemeanor criminal property damage charge
Bookmakers avoided a historic, multimillion-dollar loss on Sunday night’s regular-season finale, when Las Vegas Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson broke a tie with a 47-yard field goal on the final play of overtime in a 35-32 win over the Los Angeles Chargers.
For sportsbooks, it would’ve been the most expensive tie in NFL betting history.
Bookmakers acknowledged that they were on the hook for millions if the Chargers and Raiders had ended in a tie. The books endured an overtime sweat for the ages but escaped mostly unscathed.
Upsets by the Jacksonville Jaguars and Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday afternoon created a scenario in which the Chargers and Raiders would each earn playoff berths with a tie, while a loss would end either team’s postseason hopes. The incentive to play for a tie had increased.
Since overtime was implemented in 1974, 27 regular-season games — less than 1% — have ended in a tie. Sportsbooks typically offer anywhere from 60-1 odds or higher on a tie. This week, at The Borgata in Atlantic City, the odds of the Chargers-Raiders game ending in a tie were bet down from 50-1 to 11-1.
The most popular two-team parlay Sunday afternoon at sportsbook PointsBet was Jaguars on the money line and a Chargers-Raiders tie. Before the Sunday night game kicked off, PointsBet’s liability on a tie had reached seven figures, according to a spokesman for the book. DraftKings was in a similar situation.
“It could get worse and probably will,” Johnny Avello, sportsbook director for DraftKings, said.
Bettors posted pictures of betting slips with long odds and big payouts, all built around the game ending in a tie.
Some bettors kept it simple, parlaying the underdog Jaguars and underdog Steelers on the money-line along with Chargers-Raiders ending in a tie. With Jacksonville a 14.5-point underdog to the Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh a 3.5-point underdog to the Baltimore Ravens, odds on such parlays were longer than 600-1 at some shops.
Other bettors got more creative, building same-game parlays correlated to a tie. A bettor in New Jersey, for example, placed a $1,000 four-teamer with 100-1 odds featuring:
• Raiders +4.5
• Chargers +4.5
• Yes on overtime
• Even total points scored
All four legs were guaranteed if the game ended in a tie. Some bettors bought into the conspiracy theory that the teams could exchange kneel downs and the game would end 0-0.
“I saw someone propose the idea that theoretically they could just kneel for 70 minutes and end in a tie and both go to the playoffs,” said Sam Hoppen, a 28-year-old sports bettor from Chicago, who had placed a $5 two-leg parlay with FanDuel on an outright win by the Jaguars and Chargers-Raiders ending in a tie at around 713-1 odds.
Hoppen admitted Sunday afternoon that a game full of kneel-downs was far-fetched, but hadn’t given up on his bet that would’ve paid $3,565.
“If the Chargers or the Raiders have it, fourth-and-10 at the 50-yard line and there’s two minutes left in overtime … what’s the risk/reward of going for it, when you could potentially lose and be out of it?” Hoppen said.
Hoppen was right. Instead of kicking the winning field goal in overtime, Raiders coach Rich Bisaccia could’ve elected to let the clock run out, sending both the Chargers and Raiders into the playoffs with a tie.
Bookmakers were glad Bisaccia chose otherwise.
“I know it was unintentional,” Avello of the overtime drama, “but Steven Spielberg couldn’t have written and directed a better script.”
While the majority of those backing the tie ended up disappointed, it was a storybook ending for a bettor in New Jersey. According to sportsbook WynnBET, the unidentified bettor placed a $1,000 parlay bet on the Jaguars upsetting the Colts and the Chargers-Raiders being tied at the end of regulation. The bettor won a net $115,000.
The Michigan Wolverines vaulted up the odds to win the national championship Saturday at sportsbooks around the nation, going from long shots to top-tier contenders after their resounding upset of Ohio State.
The Wolverines handled the Buckeyes 42-27 in the snow at The Big House, clinching a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game and moving from 50-1 to 10-1 in Caesars Sportsbook’s odds to win the national championship. Only Georgia, the odds-on favorite, and Alabama had better national title odds than Michigan as of late Saturday afternoon.
The Wolverines entered the season at 100-1 and lost some of their luster after a close defeat to Michigan State in late October. On Saturday, the betting public — including gamblers in Michigan — overwhelmingly sided with the favored Buckeyes. At Caesars Sportsbook in Michigan, 95% of the money bet on the game’s spread was on Ohio State.
A spokesman for sportsbook PointsBet told ESPN that Michigan’s upset of the Buckeyes produced the bookmaker’s largest win on a college football game this season.
There were some savvy Wolverines backers, though, who caused the point spread to move significantly late in the week and in the hours leading up to kickoff. The Buckeyes, who could be found as high as 9-point favorites during the week, closed as consensus 6.5-point favorites. Bets on the Wolverines from influential customers caused the line to shrink, multiple sportsbooks told ESPN.
Caesars Sportsbook reported taking a $275,000 bet on Michigan +8.5 earlier in the week, and BetMGM on Saturday tweeted that a bettor placed a $200,000 money-line wager on the Wolverines to win straight up at +250 odds. The bettor won a net $500,000.
Michigan’s performance also bolstered the Heisman odds of defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, who had seven tackles, including three sacks against the Buckeyes. Hutchinson, who previously was not listed, had the third-best odds to win the Heisman Trophy at 7-1 Saturday at DraftKings.
We’re seven weeks into the 2021 NFL season, and the first-year cornerbacks continue to flex their collective muscles. Three of them make the second edition of our rookie rankings. And while our top 10 has some movement, once again only one quarterback made the cut. It’s actually a pass-catcher atop the board here, as the Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase has launched himself to the head of the class as the season’s halfway point approaches. That shouldn’t surprise anyone — he’s setting records for rookie receivers and seems to have a deep-ball TD every week.
To build the list, we polled some personnel executives around the league and worked our way through the game tape. We also include who just missed the list and a few other names to keep handy in the coming weeks. Finally, we looked to ESPN Stats & Information’s Seth Walder to name an under-the-radar rookie to keep an eye on and ESPN Chalk’s Doug Kezirian to provide the best value bets for Rookie of the Year.
So who are the top rookies in the NFL right now, and why are they excelling? Let’s cut to the Chase, pun intended.
Jump to: Top 10 | Just missed | Notes Under the radar | Value bets
Where to start? The 21-year-old leads the league in yards per catch (21.5), has three 100-yard games — including a 200-yard outing — and has the most receiving yards through seven career games in NFL history (754). Watch his routes and how he sets up more experienced defenders — add the Ravens’ Marlon Humphrey to what will be a growing list — and it’s clear this is a dynamic player who is going to require defenses to make a plan for him every weekend. And that means going beyond just putting their best cover player on him most of the time.
Lists like these are often about degree of difficulty, and Slater checks that box pretty rigorously. He has already faced the likes of Chase Young, Maxx Crosby and Myles Garrett in his first six starts. Garrett did overpower Slater for a sack in Week 5 — though he may have gotten away with a hands-to-the-face penalty on the play — but body of work is always what matters most, and Slater’s body of work thus far is top shelf.
His versatility and the Cowboys’ need to change his job description at the earliest stages of his NFL career will impact how some may see Parsons’ success. The bottom line: He has made an impact at defensive end when the team needed him to play there — he has 10 quarterback hits — and he has shown the ability to work in coverage at linebacker, as well as hold his gap at the point of attack in the run game. Parsons leads all rookies in pass rush win rate at 26.2%.
Surtain has played 86% of the team’s defensive snaps, been tasked with a handful of WR1s and played with such competitiveness from down to down that when Ronald Darby came off injured reserve, it was veteran Kyle Fuller who went to the bench. Surtain does need to clean up some of his tackling in the run game, but opposing quarterbacks have consistently been frustrated far more often than not when they’ve tried to test him.
Owusu-Koramoah may have difficulty holding on to this spot, given he went to injured reserve (ankle) on Oct. 18, missed the Browns’ Week 7 win over the Broncos and is expected to miss several weeks. But just before his injury, which happened on Oct. 17 against the Cardinals, he had played 91% and 85% of the defensive snaps in his prior two games, as he consistently showed top-end play speed to the point of attack with quality work in coverage.
Jones has faced the highest degree of difficulty among the top 10 and showed the resolve to bounce back from his three-interception day in Week 3 against the Saints for seven touchdown passes and three interceptions over the next four games. He also got his first career 300-yard game in a blowout win over the Jets this past weekend. The game tape shows a little more progress each week in protecting himself in the pocket — especially against the unnecessary sack — and taking care of the ball.
Like one of his mentors — Broncos coach Vic Fangio — Chargers coach Brandon Staley wants competitive cornerbacks who can tackle and play with discipline in a variety of coverages. Samuel has been reliable much of the time and has shown the versatility to play in the slot or outside, depending on what is needed of him.
The Chiefs have a growing pile of trouble in some places on the depth chart, but Humphrey is not on that list. He has played with composure and keeps his footwork clean. The game film shows he has allowed just one sack in pass protection, and ESPN’s metrics (via NFL Next Gen Stats) have him with just six pass-block losses on the season overall.
Personnel evaluators around the league expected Pitts to find his footing as the season moved toward the halfway mark. Consider it found. He has two 100-yard games over the past two weeks and a wide receiver-worthy 15.2 yards per catch on the season.
Stats: 32 tackles Drafted: No. 167 overall
The former Illini defensive back finds his way into this spot because of the Raiders’ expanding portfolio for him in recent weeks and his ability to consistently have an impact in each of those roles. Hobbs has five starts, has played at least 50% of the defensive snaps in every game — including a season-high 93% in the Raiders’ Week 7 win over the Eagles — and has just one missed tackle on the year.
Just missed
Azeez Ojulari, LB, New York Giants
The second-round pick’s 5.5 sacks lead all rookies, including the 2.5 he had against the Panthers this past Sunday. He has added some counters in his pass-rush work, and the more he progresses there, the more sack-happy games he will have. His 14.0% pass rush win rate is second among rookies to Dallas’ Parsons.
Penei Sewell, OT, Detroit Lions
His potential is still clear, but the move to left tackle to replace the injured Taylor Decker has impacted Sewell’s quality of play overall, as he fights his way along the learning curve. After a choppy two-game stretch against Minnesota and Chicago, when he allowed four sacks, he rebounded with high-quality efforts against the Bengals and Rams.
Greg Newsome II, CB, Cleveland Browns
Newsome missed two games with a calf injury — Weeks 4 and 5 — and played just 21 of the team’s defensive snaps in Week 6. But he got the start and played all 50 defensive snaps against the Broncos this past Thursday. His play shows an attention to detail, and he has been flagged just once this season.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
Williams, who has 320 rushing yards this season, is a broken-tackle festival waiting to happen. We saw it recently against the Ravens, when six different Baltimore players tried to tackle Williams before he eventually was pulled to the ground. He has shown potential in the passing game, as well, with 122 yards on 20 catches. The only quibble is on those rare occasions when he doesn’t show his customary decisiveness.
Eric Stokes, CB, Green Bay Packers
Stokes has played every defensive snap in four of the Packers’ past five games. He has been flagged three times this season — all for pass interference — but all three were in his first two starts. Stokes has an interception and eight passes defended.
Keep an eye on: Osa Odighizuwa, DT, Dallas Cowboys; Rondale Moore, WR, Arizona Cardinals; Spencer Brown, OT, Buffalo Bills; Trey Smith, G, Kansas City Chiefs; Odafe Oweh, DE/LB, Baltimore Ravens; Kadarius Toney, WR, New York Giants; Sam Cosmi, OT, Washington Football Team; Pete Werner, LB, New Orleans Saints; Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers; Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars; Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers; DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles; Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, LB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Greg Rousseau, DE, Buffalo Bills
Other rookie notes
Let’s just plan on a Ja’Marr Chase note in each edition of these rankings, as he is already getting folks to page through the record books. His 200-yard game this past Sunday was just the 17th by a rookie receiver. And with his high target volume and big-play ability, it’s likely a good time to remind people of Jerry Butler’s rookie single-game record of 255 yards in 1979. While Chase put up his 200-yard effort in his seventh career game, Butler did it in his fourth career game. And oddly, Butler did not have another game with more than 140 receiving yards in his 88-game career.
Packers rookie center Josh Myers, a second-round pick, was on the fast track up the rankings. He had played every snap in Green Bay’s first four games and replaced former All Pro center Corey Linsley, who signed with the Chargers in free agency. But Myers missed a game with a finger injury and then suffered a knee injury in Week 6 against Chicago, sending him to injured reserve.
Buffalo Bills rookie tackle Spencer Brown, an Iowa native, had joked he watched the Chiefs-Bills AFC Championship Game in his basement last January and then 10 months later he made his second NFL start in Arrowhead in the Bills’ 38-20 win in Week 5. Keep an eye on Brown, a third-round pick this past April who played eight-man football in Lenox, Iowa, in high school. He has shown he’s ready for the job on a Super Bowl-hopeful team after he was moved into the lineup at right tackle when the Bills shuffled their starters and Daryl Williams was moved inside to guard.
Walder’s under-the-radar rookie
Trey Smith, G, Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs crushed the offensive line portion of their draft; not only did they get the aforementioned Humphrey late in the second round, but they also nabbed Smith in the sixth out of Tennessee. Seven games in, Smith ranks 11th in both pass block win rate and run block win rate among guards this season. That’s a lot of value for a late-round pick, and Smith — along with Humphrey and veteran free-agent signing Joe Thuney — makes the interior of the offensive line a real strength for Kansas City.
Kezirian’s Rookie of the Year value bet
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Cincinnati’s Chase is rightfully receiving tons of attention and praise, but Pitts at +1400 feels like great value for Offensive Rookie of the Year. The main concern is that Chase and Pitts play similar positions, so their stats will be compared to one another, as opposed to how voters might compare a QB and receiver. However, we still have two full months remaining in the regular season, and it seems like Pitts is just now hitting his stride with back-to-back 100-yard games.
