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Gammons, Stark and Rosenthal on the Hall of Fame results, and why Scott Rolen’s election mattered

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Going into the final day of Hall of Fame voting, public balloting showed there was a real chance that the BBWAA would not elect a player for the second time in three years. Ultimately, Scott Rolen got in with 76.3 percent of the vote, while not electing Todd Helton (72.2 percent) and Billy Wagner (68.1 percent) who were close behind. This was the first election in a decade not to be dominated by the talk surrounding Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, but a series of other issues emerged as the Hall and the voting process move into a new era.

To better understand the results and what’s ahead, The Athletic brought together three of its most esteemed writers — Jayson Stark, Ken Rosenthal and Peter Gammons — to discuss the voting and look ahead at what may come for the Hall and its candidates in the next few years. Stark and Gammons are both recipients of the BBWAA Career Excellence Award, the highest honor for baseball writers, and are recognized in a permanent exhibit at the Hall of Fame itself.

1. Scott Rolen got 10.2 percent of the vote in his first year. And by his sixth he was getting elected. Is that an indictment of the process or a validation of how hard it should be to get elected?

Stark: My Twitter timeline has been full of people telling me no player should ever be a Hall of Famer if he once got 10 percent of the vote. C’mon. That’s ridiculous.

First off, it’s supposed to be hard to get elected to the Hall of Fame.

Second, Rolen’s first year on the ballot might have been the most loaded ballot ever. There were seven players on that ballot who eventually got elected by the writers, plus Fred McGriff, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling — and Billy Wagner, Andruw Jones, Gary Sheffield and Jeff Kent. We only have 10 slots. So it was pretty much impossible to figure out who should fill them in that election.

And finally, one of my favorite things about Hall of Fame voting is that not every journey to 75 percent is the same. That journey can provide a vehicle for thought, reflection, perspective and debate. And in many ways, that’s the best part about being a Hall of Fame voter. I love all of that.

Rosenthal: Rolen going from 10.2 percent of the vote to the necessary 75 percent for election in six years is not an indictment of the process. It’s more a reflection of two things. First, the crowded ballot that hampered a number of candidates in recent years. And second, our ability to better measure and understand the value of gifted all-around players than voters in the past.

If anything, the crowded ballot was an indictment of the process, the restriction on only voting for 10 players and the decision by the Hall in 2014 to reduce a player’s eligibility from 15 years to 10. Several strong candidates dropped off the ballot as a result, failing to get the minimum 5 percent of the vote. Others, like Rolen, did not get the support they deserved in their early years of eligibility.

The encouraging part of Rolen’s election is the recognition that not all Hall of Famers require the fabled Black Ink, years of leading the league in several categories. I know some fans did not necessarily perceive him as a Hall of Famer when he played. I’m not sure I did, either. But when considering the entirety of his career, I found it a pretty easy call. He was an all-time great at an under-represented position, third base.

Gammons: That Scott Rolen is a Hall of Famer by five votes is an anthem to what the road to Cooperstown represents. I think back to 1997, talking to then-Phillies general manager Lee Thomas about two players whose first full seasons came that year. One was Rolen. The other was Nomar Garciaparra. “Some day,” Thomas said, “we may remember that we watched two Hall of Famers begin journeys to Cooperstown.”

For Garciaparra, the injuries began in 2001, taking him off that Hall of Fame track. At the 2004 trading deadline, he was traded to the Cubs, Orlando Cabrera took the Boston shortstop job, and Garciaparra became an afterthought as the Red Sox won the World Series.

Rolen had his share of injuries too, but he managed to play 17 major league seasons with four teams, earn eight Gold Gloves and mash 316 home runs. Another future Hall of Famer who began his major league career as a third baseman, Jeff Bagwell, said of playing against him that “it’s hard hitting when there’s an office building playing third.”

There are many of us who believe Rolen is not simply a no-doubt member of what Tom Seaver called “the most exclusive club in America,” but is one of the 10 best third basemen to ever play the game. Garciaparra was on track to be that good, too. He got hurt. Players get hurt, great players. Don Mattingly had a congenital back condition that thus far has cost him a plaque. Bobby Grich hurt his back lifting an air conditioner. The game is tough enough; playing it on Scott Rolen’s level for 17 years is unimaginably tough.

Rolen’s election is historic in terms of what it says about the voting process itself, and the electorate. Rolen was never an MVP, and his page on Baseball Reference isn’t a blur of black ink. He wasn’t elected on traditional offensive stats. He joins the Hall because he was a great all-around player — a 235-pound giant who could run the bases, make perfect throws on 5-4-3 double plays, and take out second basemen on potential double plays.

What made Rolen’s 2022-23 jump from 63.2 percent of the ballots to the all-important 75 percent so uncertain is the difficulty of defining exactly what a Hall of Famer is. Some love the offensive numbers. Some love Wins Above Replacement because it takes defense and the whole game into consideration, which would seem to help Andruw Jones. Billy Wagner is the most difficult pitcher to hit in baseball history. But even in this era when bullpens are such an invaluable and inescapable part of championship teams, some do not consider relievers to be whole pitchers.

Fortunately, we are finally moving past the Steroid Era, passing such decisions on to Veterans Committees in the next few elections. The fact that Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens — two of the greatest players ever — were not on the ballot cleared room and put Wagner, Todd Helton and Jones on track to stand at the podium in Cooperstown.

2. Which player didn’t get a lot of support on this ballot who you think deserves more? (That can include players who didn’t get 5 percent.)


Jeff Kent is the kind of candidate who could be viewed favorably by one of the Hall of Fame’s committees. (Jed Jacobsohn / Allsport)

Stark: Am I allowed to say Jeff Kent deserved more love, even though he’s now off our ballot? I never could figure out why it took him seven years on the ballot just to get above 20 percent. And now he’s off without ever reaching 50 percent?

I used to say McGriff was the most criminally undersupported candidate in my time as a voter. I’m now handing that crown to Kent. As I wrote in my column explaining my ballot, I always look for players with a claim to historic greatness. And it’s so easy to argue that Kent is the most dominant offensive second baseman of modern times. He has something for everybody.

For the old-school crowd: the most home runs and RBIs by any second baseman in history. For the new-age crowd: the highest slugging percentage by any second baseman in the live-ball era — plus a .500 slugging percentage in the postseason, over 43 games (not a small sample), and some incredible October moments. As I wrote in my piece on the five things we learned from this election, nobody feels like a more slam-dunk choice to get elected by the Contemporary Era committee in a few years than Kent does.

Rosenthal: Gary Sheffield deserves more support, and as Jayson noted in his Hall of Fame wrap-up, he’s running out of time. While Sheff jumped a healthy 15.6 percentage points, he’s still only at 55 percent, with only one year left on the ballot. A 20 percent jump in a stronger class next year would seem … unlikely.

A former player, a contemporary of Sheffield’s, texted me this morning, saying, “the Sheff defense argument is maddening.” The former player’s point: Sheffield, for better or worse, actually played defense. Edgar Martinez, on the other hand, barely was out in the field, whether due to health or lack of skill. “Can’t hold it against Sheff if it wasn’t held against Edgar,” the former player said. “And that is where WAR comes up short.”

Some voters probably demur on Sheffield because of what he said was an inadvertent use of PEDs before and during the 2002 season. Each voter is entitled to his or her opinion on that subject, but we’ve already elected a number of alleged PED users. Sheffield hit 509 home runs and had a career OPS+ 40 percent above league average. Ken Griffey Jr. was a mere 36 percent above.

Gammons: Now that Sheffield is up over 55 percent before his final year on the ballot, he has a slim chance. His candidacy is burdened by a chemical called The Clear he bought from BALCO, but he never denied getting it, he denied knowing it was a steroid. He went on to hit 509 home runs, and with one of the fiercest swings in the game had 304 more walks than strikeouts in his 2,576-game career. Perspective? The only players who hit 500 homers and had fewer strikeouts are Ted Williams and Mel Ott. When his career ended, Sheffield went on to be a player agent. He wasn’t Rolen; he was a basher who didn’t strike out.

Carlos Beltrán will make it in the next year or two as the 2017 Astros scandal recedes further into the past. There is absolutely no questioning that he is a Hall of Fame performer. He is one of five players to finish with 400 homers and 300 stolen bases, alongside Bonds, Willie Mays, Alex Rodriguez and Andre Dawson. He has the highest stolen base success rate (86.8 percent) in history. His 1.021 career postseason OPS is topped only by Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and George Brett. Reliability and availability are what Buck Showalter calls “the sixth tool;” Beltrán played center field in 1,312 games and started 1,306 from 2001-10. Beltrán has devoted much of his life to his academy, to helping young players in Puerto Rico who might have trouble finding the money and schooling to develop and either be drafted or go to a college in the United States.

So if admission to the Hall of Fame can be denied by what is considered “wrong” or “cheating,” can we consider what a player has given the game, and if he leaves the baseball world better than we found it, can we then take that as an addition to OPS+?

3. The writers have only elected two center fielders in the last 40 years: Ken Griffey Jr. and Kirby Puckett. We have three of them still on this ballot: Carlos Beltrán, Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter. Why has it been so tough for these center fielders — and more (Jim Edmonds, Bernie Williams, etc.) — to get elected? And how many of the three guys on this ballot will eventually make it?

Stark: I first realized that center field was a different position from all the other positions over a decade ago, when I was working on the center-field chapter in my Stark Truth book, on the most overrated and underrated players in history. For a while there, I thought it would be impossible to make a case for any great center fielder as “overrated” because they were all legends! Mays, Cobb, Mantle, Griffey, DiMaggio, etc. They set this high jump bar so high, it’s hard for anyone to clear it.

But I think Beltrán will get elected one of these years, based on what we saw in this election. As I wrote in my Five Takeaways column, the most important thing we saw there was how many voters there were who voted for him but were not supporters of the PED crowd. That tells me he’s in great position to pick up steam.

And it’s hard not to think Andruw Jones makes it at some point, too. Heck, this guy has piled up almost 200 new votes over the last four elections. So even though I haven’t been one of those, as I explained in my ballot column, I’m always open-minded about examining players like him over and over.

I do feel badly that Torii Hunter hasn’t fared better, though. I think he falls below the Hall of Fame line. But he was as fun to watch play as any center fielder of his generation. And if we had a Hall of Fame for guys who found joy in playing baseball, he’d be a first-ballot pick!

Rosenthal: Our treatment of center fielders really bothers me. At a time when voters supposedly are assigning greater weight to defensive value, how is it that we are not honoring more players at a critical up-the-middle position?

The crowded ballot during the 2010s was part of the problem. Jim Edmonds fell off the ballot after one year despite eight Gold Gloves and 393 homers. Kenny Lofton also was one-and-done even though his 622 stolen bases rank 15th all-time. Bernie Williams lasted only two years despite his .850 career OPS in 545 (!) career plate appearances in the postseason.


Jim Edmonds was known as much for his defense as his offense. (Scott Cunningham / Getty Images)

Are all of those players Hall of Famers? Maybe not, though Edmonds, in particular, should get a long look from the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee. All of them, though, deserved greater consideration. Absolutely. The eventual elections of Jones and Beltrán should help reverse the trend. I’m not sure Hunter is quite at their level. But he warrants deeper examination, too.

Gammons: When Andruw Jones’ name is on the ballot, how can that not be something to think about? I think about Dale Murphy, and wish somehow, somewhere, there is a place in the Hall for a plaque remembering him. In spring training, 1977, I saw him make a throw to second base that Barry Bonnell caught on the fly in center field. He went from catcher to first base to right field to center, in 1981-90 started more games in center than anyone but Lloyd Moseby, hit 398 homers, won two MVPs, started all 162 games every year from 1982 to 1985, and in 1988 was honored by Sports Illustrated in its Athlete of the Year issue with those from other sports with the cover, “Athletes Who Care.”

OPS+, WAR, Athletes who care. Problem is, too many of us have too many ideas of what it means to be a Hall of Famer.

4. Next year looks like a fascinating election, with Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer and Chase Utley (among others) debuting on the ballot. How many of those guys do you think will get elected — eventually if not next year?

Stark: I think all three will get elected! Not next year, because I think we’ve got a Beltré/Helton/Wagner trifecta almost locked up. So I obviously see Beltré as the easiest first-ballot Hall of Famer since Derek Jeter. It would take some serious overthinking not to vote for a guy with five Gold Gloves and 3,166 hits. So he’s not in debate.

Mauer might be in the short term. But I think once the voters really understand that his case is not just as a catcher, but as one of the greatest-hitting catchers ever, it will mean that they’ll put less weight on the first-baseman portion of his career. Once that happens, he should zoom up the board.

And then there’s Utley. He’s a sabermetric cult hero, right? So maybe once upon a time, 1,885 hits would have disqualified him. But I think we live in a very different time. Over the next 10 years, wouldn’t you guys bet on this voting being overwhelmingly dominated by data-driven thinking? I would. So who on this ballot would benefit from that thinking more than Utley? Plus, he should get bonus points for finding more innovative ways to contribute to winning — for two great teams (Phillies and Dodgers) — than any player I’ve ever been around. And I mean that. Sorry, Derek!

Rosenthal: Beltré is a no-question, first-ballot Hall of Famer. He hit 477 homers and compiled 3,166 hits while making 94.5 percent of his career starts at third base and playing elite defense at the position. He was a model player and model teammate, all but impossible to pull out of the lineup, better in his 30s than in his 20s. An all-time favorite for many of us who covered his career.

Utley will face a more difficult path. He played almost 1,000 fewer games than Beltré and finished with 1,885 hits. The BBWAA has yet to elect a post-1960 expansion candidate with fewer than 2,000 hits to the Hall. Tony Oliva, the only such player to make it, was honored by the Golden Days Era Committee (Worth noting: Andruw Jones and Edmonds also had fewer than 2,000).


Chase Utley lacks the counting stats of most Hall of Famers, but his impact was significant. (Jeff Gross / Getty Images)

Yet, while Utley never won a Gold Glove at second base or finished higher than seventh in an MVP vote, there was something about him — a special brand of talent, toughness and intelligence that teammates and opponents revered. Maybe his intangibles aren’t enough. Maybe if I feel that strongly about him, I should feel more strongly about his double-play partner, Jimmy Rollins, who had 2,455 hits and won an MVP, but has yet to receive my vote. These are all good questions!

Mauer, too, will be a difficult call for some. His first 10 seasons as a primary catcher were Cooperstown-worthy. His final five seasons as a first baseman were not. But one of the first things I look for in a Hall of Famer is 10 years of dominance. Mauer achieved that. His slash line as a catcher was .328/.408/.481. He won an MVP, three Gold Gloves and three batting titles, the most of any catcher. Maybe he won’t get in right away. But he should get in.

Gammons: One of the most striking takeaways from the MLB Network presentation Tuesday was the potential shift from a time when voters were dubious of the majority of candidates, to one where in 2023 it is clear that many voters were looking for players whose boxes they could check on the ballot. Todd Helton, Wagner, Jones and Beltrán all could cross the 75th parallel. Beltré is seemingly a first-ballot walk-in; 3,166 hits, 477 home runs, a 93.5 WAR that’s third among all-time third basemen behind Eddie Matthews and Mike Schmidt, an amazing snap-flip throw and the ability to drop to one knee and hit 400-foot homers.

The other strong candidates who may take two to eight ballots are Mauer and Utley. Mauer’s age 26-30 years were historic, with an MVP and three batting titles in five years, but the physical wear of catching every day and the abuse a big catcher takes with foul tips and concussions eventually forced him to first base. Utley’s numbers may take a while to resonate, but few players in this century have been more respected, his 64.5 WAR is fringe Hall of Fame-worthy and anyone who ever played with him will recall that in his career he never arrived at the park thinking about anything but what he could do to help his team win that day.

Then one adds David Wright and Matt Holliday and remembers they were not only great players, but left the game better than they found it. Wright likely doesn’t have the Rolen or Beltré or Chipper Jones numbers to get 75 percent from the writers, but as with Mattingly and Garciaparra, we are reminded just how hard it is to have the human body hold up for 15 productive seasons.

Which reinforces that voting for Rolen was absolutely the right thing to do.

(Top photo of Rolen: Ezra O. Shaw / Allsport)



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Sports

Baseball Hall of Fame election: 5 takeaways from Scott Rolen’s triumph and a historic vote

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COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. — Some Hall of Fame third basemen make it easy. George Brett cruised into the Hall with 98 percent of the vote. Chipper Jones was never in doubt, with 97 percent. Mike Schmidt was just behind them at 96.5 percent. They all breezed into Cooperstown on the first ballot. No fuss. No muss. No suspense.

And then there was Scott Rolen.

He didn’t exactly cruise into the Hall on a stunning Tuesday evening. He certainly didn’t breeze. But when the ballot counting was finally complete, he had just enough votes to become the newest Hall of Famer.

Only five players in the history of the annual Hall balloting had ever cleared the 75 percent bar by five votes or fewer. But Tuesday, Rolen slithered over that line by exactly five.

It was the smallest margin since Pudge Rodriguez made it by four in 2017. And the only other player in the last 35 elections to eek in by this slim a margin was Ferguson Jenkins, by one vote, in 1991. So maybe history will show that Rolen attracted “only” 76.3 percent of the vote. But it was enough — to change his whole life.

Rolen single-handedly saved us from the second shutout in the last three elections by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. But he almost had company.

There was Todd Helton (72.2 percent), who almost made an unprecedented leap from 52.0 percent last year to election, but wound up missing by only 11 votes. And right behind was Billy Wagner, who made a massive jump to 68.1 percent, leaving him 27 votes short.

They’re both now seemingly on the verge of election. But at least they’re not stuck alongside Rolen, gridlocked in a ballot traffic jam that nearly resulted in another shutout and another seriously overcrowded ballot next year.

Nevertheless, this still makes just two players elected by the writers (Rolen and David Ortiz) in the last three years. And that ties the record for any three-year period since the dawn of yearly elections in 1966. The other periods with two were from 1966 to 1968 (Ted Williams, Joe Medwick), 1994-96 (Steve Carlton, Mike Schmidt) and 1996-98 (Phil Niekro, Don Sutton).

But now that we’ve got those pesky details out of the way, what did this election tell us about Rolen’s candidacy — and about some of the players who didn’t get elected? Thanks for asking. I can help with that, with this edition of five things we learned from the 2023 Hall of Fame election.

1. The Scott Rolen bandwagon had just enough gas in the tank


Scott Rolen (Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images)

I’ve been a Hall of Fame voter for a long time. I’ve always had a theory about elections like this one. It almost turned out to be totally bogus, but in the end, it held true again.

As voters, we sometimes find ourselves with a choice — between pitching a shutout or listening to that voice in our head that says it’s always better to elect somebody. And when those sorts of elections come along, we have a long history of looking at the most electable candidate and deciding: I’m voting for That Guy!

I think that happened last year with Ortiz … and in 2012 with Barry Larkin … and 2010 with Andre Dawson … and, hey, I could give you a half-dozen more examples. But here’s why I mention it — because …

That came dangerously close to not happening this year, with Rolen.

Heading into this election, he seemed so perfectly positioned to ride that Let’s Elect Somebody wave. He was only 12 percentage points away after last year. All he needed was another 50 votes or so. There was no reason to think it would be this close. But now that we’ve seen how the votes lined up, it’s easier to dig in on why.

It’s hard to add 200 votes in four years. As recently as the 2019 election, there were “only” 73 voters (17.2 percent) voting for Rolen. Then he hopped on the Larry Walker/Edgar Martinez Hot Candidate Expressway — and jumped by 18 percentage points, 17 percentage points and 10 percentage points over the next three elections. So among candidates who remained on the ballot, he had three years in a row in which nobody was adding more votes than him. I can’t find anyone who ever did that four elections in a row. After all, there are only so many votes to add.

The Ortiz/Bonds/Clemens/Schilling exit didn’t help him much. When Ortiz, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling waved sayonara to this process after last year, it meant the 1,055 ballot slots they took up in 2022 were officially up for grabs. That was great news for Helton, Wagner and others. But it didn’t help Rolen anywhere near as much as those guys — and why not? Because, according to data gathered by the brilliant Hall election analyst Jason Sardell, almost all of the Ortiz/Bonds/Clemens/Schilling voters were already voting for him.

He had to depend on the “Old School” voting crowd. Another thing I learned from Sardell: The key to close elections is often the Old School/Small Hall voters, a group that isn’t big on analytics and can be notoriously hard to crack. Of the 51 public voters who fit that definition last year and made their ballots public, only 39 percent were voting for Rolen this year.

On one hand, that was second only to Billy Wagner (43 percent) among all the candidates on this ballot. On the other, compare that with Ortiz, who pulled in 68 percent from that crowd last year. Edgar Martinez was at 62 percent from that group the year he made it. Larry Walker reeled in 57 percent of them. I’m not sure why an old-school type player like Rolen had so much trouble connecting with old-school voters. But that nearly became an election-swinging factor this year.

Fortunately for him, though, he attracted just enough of those votes to soar above that 75 percent line. And because he did, he wound up following almost an identical path to Mike Mussina, who also was elected in his sixth year on the ballot, in 2019.

Year Mussina PCT Rolen PCT

Year 2

24.6%

17.2%

Year 3

43.0%

35.3%

Year 4

51.8% 

52.9%

Year 5

63.5% 

63.2%

Year 6

76.7%* 

76.3%*

 (*elected)

2. Four historic leaps — by guys not named Rolen


Todd Helton (Brian Bahr / Allsport via Getty Images)

A funny thing happened to four other guys on this ballot while we were busy fixating on Rolen. Todd Helton, Billy Wagner, Gary Sheffield and Andruw Jones went flying up the Big Board.

Player Increase 2022 2023

Helton

20.2 percentage points

52.0%

72.2%

Wagner

17.1 percentage points

51.0%

68.1%

Jones

16.7 percentage points

41.4 %

58.1%

Sheffield

15.6 percentage points

40.6%

55.0%

As a longtime student of Hall of Fame voting trends, I was blown away by that fiery ball in the Hall of Fame sky. Why? Because you don’t see that much. By which I mean ever.

I couldn’t recall an election in which four players in their voting tier — who had already crossed the 40 percent line (or higher) — saw their vote totals rocket upward at a level like that. So I double-checked with my friends from STATS Perform. They confirmed that has never happened.

The Hall of Fame started holding annual elections more than half a century ago. Never, in any previous election, had more than two players each jumped by at least 15 percentage points after entering that election with a floor as high as this group.

The previous record was set in 2017, when Edgar Martinez and Tim Raines reeled off gains of 15.2 percentage points and 16.2 percentage points, respectively, with Raines getting elected.

But in this election, we somehow had four? How did that happen? Mostly, it happened because the ballot departures of Ortiz, Bonds, Clemens and Schilling opened up those 1,055 ballot slots we mentioned earlier. And Helton, Wagner, Jones and Sheffield were delighted to fill them.

Sardell was able to pinpoint exactly where those new votes were coming from. At last look, 53 percent of Helton’s added public votes were from writers who filled up all 10 slots on their ballots last year (meaning they previously didn’t have room to include him). Same for Jones (59 percent), Sheffield (52 percent) and Wagner (59 percent).

But that wasn’t an option for Rolen, who picked up only 14 percent of his new votes from that group. Why? Because, as we said earlier, those voters were mostly already voting for him.

So that breakdown is fascinating in and of itself. But wait a minute. I think we might be burying the most important part:

We now have to take a whole new view of the electability of these four guys. So let’s do that.

Helton: He almost did something that has never been done: Leap from 52 percent last year to election the next. But even though he came up nine votes short, he’s now at 72.2 percent, with five years left on the ballot. So it’s time for him to start renting a bunch of Vrbos in Cooperstown in July 2024, because he’ll be giving a speech! Over the last 50 elections, you know how many players have gotten this close within their first five years on the ballot and not been elected the next year? Right you are. Not a one (11 for 11).

Wagner: A 17.1 percentage point surge in one year? Incredible. Wagner’s big move should command our attention for two reasons. One is, it’s the largest year-to-year jump by any reliever ever — topping a 15.5 percentage point leap by Rollie Fingers in 1992. The other is, Wagner is now at 68.1 percent, with two years left on the ballot. So he’d have to make the wrong kind of history to not get elected in one of those two years.

Five previous relievers — Trevor Hoffman, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter, Hoyt Wilhelm and Fingers — crossed the 60 percent barrier with at least as many years left on the ballot as Wagner has. All five of them got elected within two years. They apparently now have a 100 mph left-handed smokeballer ready to join them one of these July afternoons.

Jones: Four years ago, who, other than his immediate family members, would have envisioned Andruw Jones closing in on the 60 percent barrier? His first two years on the ballot, in 2018 and ’19, he got 7.3 percent and 7.5 percent of the vote, respectively. That’s 31 votes the first year, 32 the second. That’s not your typical harbinger of a trip to the plaque gallery.

But Jones has since added another 194 votes — so he, too, is now positioned for election some day. He has four years to pick up another 100 votes or so. And if he does, he’ll become the first player in the history of the modern voting system to go from less than 8 percent in Year 1 to later getting elected by the writers. I guess it wouldn’t be the first time he covered more ground than your average center fielder. Right?

Sheffield: Meanwhile, Sheffield has made a similar ride up the election elevator, from 13.6 percent in 2018 to 55 percent this year. But he’s the one guy on this list we wouldn’t advise betting on eventually getting the call. This was his ninth orbit on this ballot. So he’s down to one shot left. Since he was at only 40.6 percent a year ago, his unlikely path to election would be via a 34.4 percentage point bungee jump over his final two go-rounds on this ballot.

Only three players in the history of this election have ever done that:

Luis Aparicio, 1983-84 — +42.7%
Larry Walker, 2019-20 — +42.5%
Barry Larkin, 2011-12 — +34.8%

But of that group, just Walker was down to his final two elections before he caught fire. And it’s hard to envision anybody with ties to performance-enhancing drugs, vague as Sheffield’s may be, repeating that history, especially with the ballot getting more crowded again next year.

3. Beltrán gets more love than those PED “cheaters”


Carlos Beltrán (Bryan Yablonsky / Getty Images)

I can’t tell you how many votes Carlos Beltrán would have gotten if he’d just lived on an alternative planet where there was no such thing as the 2017 Astros. I can tell you that his jury has now filed back into this courtroom. And we have a shocking verdict on our hands.

Was Beltrán guilty of the crime of heinous cheating, just like those notorious PED scoundrels this jury has been pummeling and punishing for a decade and a half? Surprisingly, nearly half of our distinguished jurists/voters (46.5 percent) have decided:

Whatever! Not guilty!

Full disclosure: If you’ve read my Hall ballot column, you know I agree with this verdict. I voted for the guy. I just didn’t expect that many of my fellow voters would see it this way.

Beltrán’s 70.1 Wins Above Replacement would make him essentially a sure Hall of Famer on that alternative planet. But now consider how differently Hall voters over the last two decades have treated 70-win players with PED ties in their first year on the ballot:

Barry Bonds — 36.2 percent
Alex Rodriguez — 34.3 percent
Rafael Palmeiro — 11.0 percent

So the message seems clear: Their “cheating” is officially being viewed as more scandalous than Beltrán and his fancy, high-tech, trash-can “cheating.” That’s obvious, just from looking at his vote totals. But let’s zoom in a little closer.

When the first public ballots began to show up in Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame Tracker, many of Beltrán’s votes were coming from the same voters who were checking the names of A-Rod and Manny Ramírez. But now that we have hundreds more votes to break down, it turns out that those voters weren’t the best ones to study. The most revealing group, Sardell reports, was the voters who tend to vote for lots of non-PED guys.

According to Sardell, at last look Beltrán was showing up on 70 percent of the ballots of writers who voted for at least six players with no PED ties. Beltrán was at 55 percent with voters who supported four or five non-PED candidates. But he was at only 31 percent among those who voted for three or fewer players in that group.

So what does that tell us? It tells us there was a surprisingly small link between how voters felt about Manny and A-Rod (who received 33.2 percent and 35.7 percent of this year’s vote, respectively) and how they looked at Beltrán. And if that means most voters are willing to look at Beltrán from a place where they don’t view him through the bars of Cheaters Jail, I think he’s going to get elected someday.

Who knew!

4. Say Goodbye/hello to Jeff Kent, the next Fred McGriff


Jeff Kent and Fred McGriff (Todd Warshaw /Allsport via Getty Images)

Unfortunately for Jeff Kent, his time on this ballot has expired. But fortunately for Jeff Kent, in his 10th and final election, he did zoom past 40 percent for the first time. And that’s quite a development, considering four years ago he hadn’t even made it to 20 percent.

Even with his surge this year, from 32.7 percent to 46.5 percent, he was still more than 100 votes away from getting elected. But I wouldn’t be worrying about any of that if I were him.

That’s because in a few years his Hall of Fame mulligan arrives, via the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee. And that committee has already shown us — and him — the most irrelevant thing that has ever happened to him in his career was spending 10 years on the writers’ ballot and never coming close to getting elected.

Exhibit A is a gentleman named Fred McGriff. He, too, logged 10 years on the writers’ ballot. He never made it to 40 percent in any of those years (peaking at 39.8 in Year 10). And how’d that work out? Pretty, pretty good. Just last month, the Contemporary Era Committee took one look at his candidacy and … unanimously elected him on the first ballot.

So check out Kent’s credentials and tell us you don’t think he’s the perfect candidate to follow that same trail to Cooperstown. Like McGriff, Kent has an old-school claim to historic greatness that seems to play well with all versions of these veterans committees: Most home runs ever by a second baseman (351) … most RBIs ever by a second baseman (1,428) … most 100-RBI seasons ever by a second baseman (eight) … highest slugging percentage by a second baseman (.509) since Rogers Hornsby retired, over 100 years ago.

And while it may not matter much to the voters on that committee, Kent’s late momentum on the writers’ ballot also mirrors McGriff’s.

VOTE PERCENTAGE INCREASE IN FINAL FOUR ELECTIONS

McGriff — +25.9% (12.9% to 39.8%)
Kent — +28.4% (18.1% to 46.5%)

Kent’s first year of eligibility via the Contemporary Era Committee is 2026, with the election held at the Winter Meetings in December 2025. Would it shock you if that committee sized him up that week and decided: Yep, he’s our guy? Let’s just say it shouldn’t!

5. I already can’t wait for next year’s election


Adrián Beltré (Rick Yeatts / Getty Images)

Is it OK to gaze into the future on a day like this? Heck, yeah. Why not? Maybe this wasn’t the most earth-rattling Hall of Fame election of modern times. But next year? Next year is going to be a blast. Let’s tell you why.

The first-year class is so much fun. Adrián Beltré joins the ballot next year. He’s the most surefire first-ballot lock since Derek Jeter in 2020. The highest first-ballot percentage ever by a third baseman was 98.2, by George Brett in 1999. Could Beltré beat that? Not impossible. I don’t know who could find a reason not to vote for a five-time Gold Glove Award winner with 3,166 hits. But hey, weirder non-votes have happened.

But after Beltré, we’ll have two more super interesting first-year attractions to chew on: Joe Mauer and Chase Utley. There had never been any such thing as a catcher who was a three-time batting champ, until Mauer. Except Mauer then finished his career with five seasons at first base that didn’t quite remind anybody of Lou Gehrig. So if the first-base years are stuck in some voters’ heads, he’ll be a fascinating candidate.

And so will Utley, a Sabermetric cult hero who ranks higher, according to Jay Jaffe’s essential JAWS metric, than Roberto Alomar, Craig Biggio and eight other Hall of Fame second basemen. So that’s a cool new-age/old-school debate waiting to happen.

But David Wright, Bartolo Colon, Matt Holliday, José Reyes and Adrián González also will appear on next year’s ballot. And they don’t all seem like your typical one-and-done candidates, either. So there’s a lot to ponder there.

How many holdovers get in? Now back to this election. When the dust settled on the returns Tuesday, we had only one player elected — but we also had a half-dozen players all lined up to chisel their plaques someday. So with a 2024 ballot that’s suddenly a whole lot more packed with excellent candidates, how many holdovers will there be room for?

• Two of those holdovers (Helton and Wagner) racked up more than 68 percent of the vote apiece. And that will make next year just the fifth election in the modern voting era to feature two returning candidates with vote totals that high. And in all four of the previous elections, both of those players got elected the next year:

2018 — Trevor Hoffman, Vladimir Guerrero
2017 — Jeff Bagwell, Time Raines
2011 — Bert Blyleven, Roberto Alomar
1987 — Billy Williams, Catfish Hunter

• But next year will also feature five returning candidates who got at least 46 percent of the vote. And there have been just seven previous elections in the last 37 years when that happened. In only two of them — 2013 and last year — were none of those returning candidates elected. But, as we’ve covered, Helton and Wagner are both solidly in the imminent-election zone.

No matter how many get to 75 percent next year, though, the first-ballot influx will no doubt have a ripple effect on vote totals up and down the ballot. So will that lead to some of this year’s high jumpers abruptly riding the escalator back down next January? Could happen.

All I know is, 2024 is shaping up as one of the hardest Hall of Fame elections to project in years. I’m looking forward to it already. Can you tell?

(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic / Getty Images)



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Sports

Carlos Correa Q&A: Inside his free agency saga. ‘Is this real? Is this a dream? Is this a joke?’

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The Minnesota Twins re-introduced Carlos Correa at a news conference Wednesday, but the shortstop could not possibly address all of the questions surrounding his tumultuous free agency in one day.

In nearly a half-century of major leaguers hitting the open market, Correa had an experience like no other. He agreed to three contracts totaling $865 million, moving from a team on the West Coast to one on the East Coast, then back to where he played last season, to a club in the Midwest. All because of a surgery he underwent to repair a fractured right fibula and minor ligament damage as a 19-year-old prospect with the Astros in June 2014, issues he thought were behind him.

Thanks to the words “pending a physical,” Correa learned otherwise. First, he was unable to complete a 13-year, $350 million agreement with the San Francisco Giants. Then, he was unable to finalize a 12-year, $315 million deal with the New York Mets. Both teams, after conducting medical reviews, expressed concern about the long-term stability of his right ankle.

Correa eventually landed back with the Twins after his agent, Scott Boras, negotiated a six-year, $200 million deal with four vesting or club options that could increase the total value to $270 million. Life-changing money, no matter how you look at it. But Correa never imagined the twists and turns that occurred during his 29-day journey from the Giants to the Mets to the Twins.

In a 25-minute phone interview with The Athletic on Friday afternoon, Correa talked about that journey, expounding upon his ankle, his conversations with Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford and Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor when he thought they were about to be teammates and his fondness for the team that turned out to be his third choice, the Twins.

Here is a transcript of the interview, edited slightly for length and clarity:

The Athletic: Let’s start at the beginning, when you first found out the Giants had an issue with your physical. What did they tell you was wrong?

Carlos Correa: I was looking for houses already over there (Correa’s introductory news conference with the Giants was scheduled for the next day). Then I get back to the hotel that night, and Scott calls me. I remember last time (in free agency) when he called me with Minnesota, he was like, “Congratulations. It’s official. You’re going to Minnesota.” This time, he said, “I need you to come to the room. We need to talk.”

At that point, I knew something was wrong. His voice sounded serious. There was not a lot of energy behind it. I headed over to his room and that’s when he told me. He said, “We’re having a problem with the physical. They’re talking about the MRI and the ankle.” I remember going like, “What?” I couldn’t believe it. I was in complete shock.

I had my suit and everything ready. My body has been feeling great. I did a physical before going to free agency last year. I did a physical before signing with the Twins. And I did an exit physical with the Twins. I didn’t think there was going to be a problem. I was 100 percent confident this was going to go through.

At that moment, everything felt slow. Everything felt like, “Is this real? Is this a dream? Is this a joke?” But it was real. From then on, we had to deal with a lot of things.

TA: What did the Giants say to you about the ankle?

Correa: The conversations were about the future. We were talking about a 13-year deal. What they were saying is that in the future it might not hold up. Which I couldn’t understand. That was the toughest part for me.

I never missed a game because of my ankle. You look at my complete medical record in the big leagues, there is zero treatment on my ankle. And it has never hurt. I couldn’t understand how they were predicting the future, saying 8-10 years down the line something might happen to it.

TA: Did the Mets later tell you the same thing?

Correa: The Giants used an ankle specialist who didn’t pass me. Then the Mets used the same specialist, who obviously wasn’t going to pass me. He had already given an opinion to another team about my ankle. He was not going to change that. He was going to stand by what he was saying, of course, because that is what he believed.

We did have other ankle specialists look at it and say it was going to be fine, orthopedists who know me, even the one who did the surgery on me. They were looking at the functionality of the ankle, the way the ankle has been the past eight years. I’ve played at an elite level where my movement has never been compromised. It was just a year ago when I won a Platinum Glove at shortstop, one of the most demanding positions, where you have to move the most. But the one doctor that had never touched me or seen me or done a test on me, that was the one who said it wasn’t going to be fine.

TA: What kind of work have you done over the years to keep the ankle strong? Will you need to be more proactive about managing it now?

Correa: Ever since the surgery, I’ve always done a lot of stability (work) on my ankles. I just incorporated it in my prep routine. I do (exercise) bands, walks on my toes, stuff like that. On the treadmill, I run and I walk backwards and stuff. But I’ve never done anything because I thought it was not going to hold up in the future.

Obviously now, knowing what some doctors are saying, what we know, there is going to be more emphasis on that area, for sure. You know me. I take really good care of my body. I don’t plan to stop doing that. If I want to be one day in the Hall of Fame, which has always been a goal of mine ever since I was a little kid playing in Puerto Rico, I’ve got to post. I’ve got to post and play baseball. There is motivation on my part to go out there and make this a 10-year deal with the Minnesota Twins.

TA: That first night in San Francisco, who from your family was there?

Correa: Everybody. It was my parents. My brother. My sister. My wife’s parents, who are with us all the time now that we have a baby and another one on the way. They’re the ones who help us around the house. They’re with us full-time. And there were people from my agency, Boras Corp. And my hitting coach — José Rivera, who has been with me since I was 11 years old — and a couple of people from my inner circle who work with me. We were all in the hotel waiting for the press conference the next day.

TA: When the Giants postponed it, what happened?

Correa: I came back to the room. Everyone was in the room. And I told them straight away: The deal is not going through. There is an issue with the physical. They looked at me kind of funny, like, “You’re joking, right?” I said, “No, I’m being serious.” Then there was complete silence for a little bit. Then I noticed my mom getting teary-eyed. She walked away and came back, I’ll say, 20 minutes later. Her and my dad had been crying.

It was a way tougher moment for me to see my family go through that than it was for me to find out the deal wasn’t going through with San Francisco. Everything I do, I do for my family. The reason I played baseball growing up was to get my family out of poverty.

I knew a deal was going to get done at some point. If it was not with (the Giants), maybe with another team. For me, the tough part was seeing my family crying and hurting because of the news.

TA: What were your thoughts about playing for the Giants? Their home ballpark, Oracle Park, is pitcher-friendly.

Correa: I didn’t really give (the ballpark) much thought, to be honest. The thing I thought about the most was the division. You have the juggernaut of the Dodgers. And the Padres now have a really, really good team. My thoughts were, how can we improve our roster and make that team better for us to be, in a couple of years, the top dogs in the division.

TA: Did you talk with Brandon Crawford at all? You were going to be replacing him at shortstop.

Correa: The first player I called was B-Craw.

TA: How did that go?

Correa: It went smooth. I’ve talked to him before. I said, “Hey, I respect you as a person and as a player. I know I’m coming in, and I’m a shortstop just like you. But I want you to know that I want to make this work. I want us to work together in order for us to accomplish the goals the team wants to accomplish. And I want to learn a couple of things from you also, that you can do at shortstop very well that I can’t. I want to be able to pick your brain, so we can help each other improve our games.”

He welcomed me right away, said he was happy I was going to be part of the team and that I was going to make us better. It was like a 5-6 minute conversation.

TA: Did you talk to any other Giants people?

Correa: I talked to everybody. Pretty much all the players on the phone. And the whole coaching staff. Remember, there was a week in between the announcement of the deal and flying (to San Francisco).

TA: Did you think the talks with the Giants would continue after what happened with the physical?

Correa: Everything happened so fast I didn’t have time to think about that.

TA: Did everyone in your family just jump on a plane to New York?

Correa: We flew back to Houston the next night (after the Giants’ news conference was postponed). I dropped them off. Then I flew by myself to New York the first thing the next morning for the physical. (Mets owner) Steve (Cohen) sent his plane. I got on the plane and flew there, did the physical that night. The next morning, I did some blood tests. After that, they took me to Citi Field. I did some extra testing over there. Everything seemed fine.

TA: Did you really tackle Scott after learning of the Mets’ deal?

Correa: Oh yeah, I tackled him.

TA: What was that moment like?

Correa: I gave my family the news that there was no deal, that we were still free agents. Then all of a sudden, this great dude — I don’t think I can curse here, but in baseball terms you’d say this bad m——f——  gets me another deal in a matter of hours.

He told me again the same words. “We need to talk. I need you to come to the room.” I was like, “OK, here we go again.” He gave me that news. He was sitting in bed. I just tackled him a little bit.

The thing I was most concerned about was having to wait a long time again to get another deal done. What I went through last year with the free-agent process, where the market closed in on me with the lockout and everything, I was concerned that might happen again.

TA: Did you talk to (Mets shortstop Francisco) Lindor?

Correa: Right away. Forty-five-minute conversation.

TA: What was that conversation like?

Correa: It was more me talking about how I was OK with playing third base and I was never going to step on his toes. Out of my mouth would never come the words, “I want to play shortstop.” Out of my mouth would never come any form of betrayal toward him.

From that moment on, from the moment the deal was agreed on, my mind was set to play third base every single day. That was never going to change. I wanted him to know I would always be loyal. I would always be there for him, whatever he needed. Just making sure we left everything clear. When players of both our calibers play shortstop and there’s a change there’s always some animosity in there. I wanted to make sure he knew out of the gate I was OK with playing third base. I was going to make the move, no problem.

TA: How comfortable were you moving? I know you take a great amount of pride in what you’ve accomplished at short.

Correa: I was comfortable because he’s a really good shortstop and a really good player. At this stage of my career, it’s all about winning. I do feel like in that case, me moving to third base was going to make the Mets a better team. So I was OK with it. My main focus right now is winning championships. I’m not focused on anything else.

TA: Did you do the same thing with the Mets players and coaches that you did with the Giants, talking to everybody?

Correa: I did talk to some coaches and some players. But not as many as I did with the Giants. When I (agreed) with the Giants, right away they sent me all the numbers, all the information I asked them to. It was easier for me to connect. The (Mets) players that texted me are the ones I talked to. I never got a chance to speak with Buck (Showalter). He was waiting for it to be official to talk about it.

TA: Did you ever speak with Steve Cohen?

Correa: Yes I did.

(The conversation took place after Correa returned to Houston from San Francisco, and before he left for New York.)

TA: What was that like?

Correa: He was very happy. He was very excited. I even spoke with his wife. It was a good, fun conversation. He was in Hawaii. He seemed like a really, really nice guy. I definitely enjoyed that conversation. He was just welcoming me and all that.

TA: When did you start to think the Twins could be an option again?

Correa: When we started moving forward with the negotiations, the Twins were always in the conversation. It was because of the way my family was treated when I was there. I feel like whatever clubhouse I’m in, I’m going to make it work for myself, do the right things to get along with my teammates and coaches. But when your family feels a certain special treatment, that’s something I value a lot.

The Minnesota Twins did that for us last year. My father and my wife’s father would drop me off at the ballpark. They would stay and watch BP. They would sit in the stands. They could go to the press box. They could go to the Champions Club. They got their badges, and they were like part of the staff at Target Field.

I always took that into consideration. I never forgot that. I never forgot that feeling. I never forgot those conversations with my family when I got back to our house after games about how great everyone made them feel. I always told Scott, “Never stop talking to the Twins. Try to make it work.” My wife loved it there. Simply everybody loved it there.

Then the thing with the physical happened with the Mets and Scott started talking about (contract) language with their lawyers. That’s when it looked like the deal was not going to get done, because of certain things with the language that were impossible to accomplish. That’s when I told Scott, “Make me a Twin. Let’s make it work with the Twins.”


Carlos Correa and Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey. (Abbie Parr / AP)

TA: We had a story today about your conversations with Byron Buxton. What role did he play in getting this done?

Correa: I read the story. I know for sure everything he did with the front office and Dustin (Morse, the Twins’ vice president of communications and content). But the one thing I appreciated more about Buxton is that he never called me to try to get me to sign with the Twins.

He always called me to talk like a brother, to make sure I was OK, to ask me about my family and kid and Daniella’s pregnancy (with their second child). Never did he say, “Bro, I want you to be in Minnesota. Please sign with us. Please consider us.” Never. He was always very kind and very professional.

The last thing you want in free agency is for a lot of people to call you, saying sign here, sign there, everybody throwing a pitch at you. What you want to do is sit down with your family, go through the process as a family and make a decision. He was so respectful. For him throughout that tough process to just call to check in, not even talk about baseball, for me that meant a lot and truly said a lot about our relationship.

TA: Back to the ankle. How much does it bother you that it’s going to be a topic of conversation now, and probably for the rest of your career?

Correa: I don’t think it’s going to bother me. It doesn’t bother me now, so I don’t think it will bother me moving forward. I’ve gone through pretty tough things in my career. The way I handle it is, if I can control it, I’ll control it. If I can’t, then I’ll just move forward.

I can’t control the perspective of people and what they’re going to say about my ankle. What I can control is the work I put in to post, taking care of my body every single day to make sure I go out and perform for 10 years for the Minnesota Twins.

Like I said, if I can’t control it, I won’t stress over it.

TA: Do you look forward to proving wrong the doctors who were negative?

Correa: It’s not about proving them wrong. It’s about proving to myself that the work I put in is going to pay off at the end of the day. As you know, I don’t go out. I just dedicate myself to this game. I’m obsessed with everything involved in this game.

Some people think it’s extreme that I don’t even drink during the season, that I try not to have added sugars. I have a diet. I go to sleep at certain times. I stretch a lot. Everything revolves around baseball 24/7 during the baseball season.

Obviously, the doctors’ opinions give you an extra motivation to just go out there, perform and play out the whole contract in a beautiful way. But proving to myself at the end of my career that all the work will pay off, that I was right, that’s all I honestly care about.

TA: Giants fans might always wonder what might have been if we had gotten Correa. Mets fans might look at it the same way. Will you look at it that way?

Correa: No. I move forward very quickly. This is something that was part of my story. It was very well-documented. A lot of people talked about it. But it’s time to move on and focus now on the Minnesota Twins and the things that I started doing last year with the team, to try to win a championship for Minnesota.

There’s no hard feelings toward both (the Giants’ and Mets’) organizations. There’s nothing but respect for them. Doctors have differences of opinion. That’s fine. But God took me here to the Minnesota Twins. I couldn’t be more grateful for this opportunity.

You put everything into perspective when you go through a process like this. You focus on the things that matter most. One thing I learned is that I love my family, I love the support system I have around me. I have a small circle I can trust and that is loyal.

At the end of the day, God put me in the right spot.

(Photo: Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)



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The huge stars Steve Cohen could chase next after Carlos Correa miss

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Way back when Carlos Correa had only agreed to one megadeal — that being the Giants’ $350 million, 13-year agreement — Mets owner Steve Cohen was lamenting to The Post about missing out on Correa (the first time), and he said, “There will always be another free agent.”

A few days later it looked like that free agent might be Correa. But alas, it was not to be. Cohen really loved what Correa brought — the glove, the personality and the extra bat, which he felt was “needed” — and he’s surely disappointed not to have acquired him following the disagreement over his physical and how to resolve that difference via contract-language changes. But there will be more opportunities, which is the beautiful thing about free agency and having a net worth that rivals some small countries.

Unfortunately, the timing here isn’t great. By the time Correa agreed to his third deal, the one that stuck — the $200M, six-year Twins agreement — the free-agent market that’s left contains no stars in their prime, much less superstars. Cohen is a big-game hunter, and it’s fun to guess who might be next. Some ideas:

Manny Machado

The Padres are expecting him to exercise his opt-out, especially after the way they and others paid top free agents this winter. He and manager Buck Showalter are tight from days together in Baltimore.

Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani
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He probably shouldn’t be No. 2 on any list, but there’s some concern about whether he’d go to New York. One baseball executive said he was flat-out told Ohtani didn’t want to come here when he was first free five years ago. (His handlers say that was a long time ago and tastes change, but of course they have to hope he’d consider Cohen’s team for the sake of negotiations, which will get crazy anyway for the world’s best player.) The Dodgers seem primed for a run at Ohtani, and the bidding should get to the $500M range, at least.

Fernando Tatis Jr

Yet another Padre has been rumored to be potential trade bait (Padres people say they aren’t shopping him). I’d say, stay away until he can prove he’s more dependable. Flashes of greatness are nice but not at this rate. His $340M deal, which coincidentally inspired Francisco Lindor’s $341M Mets deal, is heavily backloaded.

Matt Chapman

He’s a terrific defender, and like Machado as a free agent could step right in at third with Eduardo Escobar’s contract expiring after 2023. Nevertheless, his offense has lagged the past couple years.

Julio Urias

He’ll be the top pitcher on the market next year (unless you count Ohtani as a pitcher, and perhaps even then), he’s young, he’s clutch. Don’t disregard.

Julio Urias
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Bryan Reynolds

He’s begging to be traded, and perhaps he will be. But the crosstown Yankees, the Marlins and others are more obvious fits. He’s a very good player but doesn’t carry the cachet of a Correa.

Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff

There’s no real indication either will be dealt, or that the Brewers would trade one to the Mets.

One thing folks are wondering about is why the Mets didn’t just give Correa the same $200M, six-year deal he ultimately signed with the Twins. It would seem to be a good deal after originally agreeing to $315M, and perhaps the Mets will regret not doing it, but it very likely comes down to the tax and the desire to keep the AAV (average annual salary) relatively low.

Cohen famously told me “what difference does it make” over the relatively small extra money he was spending (for him), but ultimately, there are lines for everyone, even him. Cohen is paying a 90 percent tax (the Steve Cohen tax) so that $33M is really $63M a year. Correa is really good. But is he that good?

The Twins, below the tax threshold, pay only the $33.33M salary, and no additional tax. So Cohen would have been paying double had they finalized the deal.

For those who figured Cohen has no limit, we may finally have found it.

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Sports

Every MLB team’s best international signing of the last decade

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Baseball’s international signing period for 2023 opens Sunday, which means this would be a good time to see which clubs have most effectively tapped into this critical talent pipeline. We asked The Athletic’s baseball writers to name each team’s best international free agent signing of the last decade. The answers reveal which teams have done well, perhaps a reflection of an investment in scouting (or even a willingness to lavish sizable deals on players who had already established themselves as stars overseas). The answers also reveal which franchises have some work to do.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Jazz Chisholm

Arizona’s international efforts have ramped up under the current regime, but it takes years for that to bear fruit. As such, the organization’s best international signing of the last 10 years can be credited to the Dave Stewart administration, which inked shortstop prospect Jazz Chisholm for $200,000 out of the Bahamas in 2015. Chisholm’s major-league career has just begun, although he’s already earned an All-Star nod at second base. Yes, it was with the Marlins, but trading Chisholm in 2019 allowed current general manager Mike Hazen to acquire ace Zac Gallen, who has been and should continue to be a perennial Cy Young Award candidate for years to come. — Zach Buchanan

Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuña Jr. wasn’t ranked among the top 30 international prospects in the 2014 class when the Braves signed the young Venezuelan for $100,000, which was twice as much as the next-largest bonus he was offered, from the Royals. Four years later, a 20-year-old Acuña was a near-unanimous choice for NL Rookie of the Year over Juan Soto, and now he’s a three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger Award winner who’s regarded as one of the top young players in baseball. A torn ACL in July 2021 is the only thing that’s managed thus far to stall his otherwise steady ascent. — David O’Brien

Baltimore Orioles: César Prieto

The Orioles ignored the international market for more than a decade under owner Peter Angelos. That philosophy changed in 2018, when his sons took over and hired general manager Mike Elias and international director Koby Perez. The organization is setting signing-bonus records annually now, but most of their acquisitions are at the low levels of the minors. The exception is infielder César Prieto, a 23-year-old Cuban defector who signed last year for $650,000. Prieto tore through High A (.340/.381/.619) in 25 games and spent the rest of 2022 at Double A, where he slashed .255/.296/.348. He’ll likely start the year at Double A, but should push toward Norfolk once there’s an opening at second, shortstop or third base. — Dan Connolly

Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers

Rafael Devers signed for $1.5 million as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in August 2013 and debuted when he was just 20 years old in late 2017. He’s been the team’s Opening Day third baseman every year since. In his five and a half seasons, he’s etched himself into Red Sox record books in several categories and since the beginning of 2019, Devers leads the majors in doubles (149) and extra-base hits (264) and leads the AL in hits (591) and total bases (1,078). Earlier this month, the Red Sox reached an agreement on an 11-year, $331 million deal with Devers, the largest contract in team history. — Jen McCaffrey

Chicago Cubs: Eloy Jiménez

The debate is probably between Eloy Jiménez and Gleyber Torres, neither of whom has taken a single big-league at-bat with the Cubs. Both were traded at the height of the Cubs’ most recent string of success and both have been generally strong performers when healthy. But it’s Jiménez’s power bat and potential to slug among the best in baseball that sets him apart in this writer’s eyes. The trade that sent him to the White Sox along with Dylan Cease and brought José Quintana to the Cubs will be one baseball fans in Chicago will bring up for years. Maybe a 2023 breakout from Cristian Hernández will slightly ease Cubs fans’ pain. — Sahadev Sharma


Eloy Jiménez. (Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)

Chicago White Sox: José Abreu

This sure has the potential to be awkward. Recent tumult aside, Fernando Tatis Jr. has more than a puncher’s chance to accumulate the most career WAR of any international player signed by the Sox during the past 10 years, and he’s accumulating it all in San Diego after being dealt for the last gasps of James Shields in 2016. Luis Robert has the tools to maybe match him long-term, but similar issues staying healthy and less realized production. Since the Sox immediately knew what they had in Robert and made him a franchise centerpiece, maybe he is the best signing. Or we could make this simple. José Abreu was signed in late October 2013 at age 26, giving us the benefit of looking at the bulk of his MLB career in hindsight. Two RBI titles, five 30-homer seasons, three All-Star teams, three Silver Sluggers and an MVP award. That’ll do. The only awkward part there is that he plays for the defending champion Astros now. — James Fegan

Cincinnati Reds: Elly De La Cruz

It may be odd to say a player who has fewer than 50 games above A ball is the best signing of the last 10 years, but Elly De La Cruz’s ascension to the top of prospect lists after signing for $65,000 in 2018 shows just how much promise there is in the 21-year-old switch-hitting shortstop. — C. Trent Rosecrans

Cleveland Guardians: Yandy Diáz

It’s actually astounding how little Cleveland’s franchise has benefitted from its international signings, especially considering they’ve contended for much of the last decade. José Ramírez, obviously, was a home-run pickup, but he signed in 2009, out of range for this prompt. The only international player who signed with the organization within the last 10 years and has totaled at least 0.5 fWAR with Cleveland: Oscar Gonzalez. It seems as though strides have been made on the international front in recent years, with George Valera, Brayan Rocchio and Angel Martinez among the club’s top prospects. Yandy Diáz logged 0.4 fWAR with Cleveland before the team jettisoned him to Tampa — where he has blossomed — in a deal that brought Carlos Santana back to Cleveland (oh, and Jake Bauers, too). — Zack Meisel

Colorado Rockies: Ezequiel Tovar

The Rockies don’t tend to be major players in the international market, choosing instead to pick around the edges looking for lottery tickets. Big bonus spending on teenaged free agents is not their style, not until last year at least. And once in a while, they find an undervalued player who makes it. Righthander Antonio Senzatela, then 16, was a nice get out of Venezuela in 2011 for a $250,000 bonus. Within the last decade, they signed shortstop Ezequiel Tovar, also 16 and from Venezuela, for $800,000 in 2018. He became one of their top prospects and debuted late last season. The verdict on his major league career will wait, but Tovar is set to become Colorado’s No. 1 shortstop. — Nick Groke

Detroit Tigers: Gregory Soto

The Tigers’ past decade on the international market has been unbelievably dry. Gregory Soto (recently traded to the Phillies) was their only productive big leaguer in a generation of international prospects. Their last true international win was Willy Adames, who signed in 2012. He was traded to the Rays in 2014 and has gone on to post 15.5 bWAR in the majors. — Cody Stavenhagen


Gregory Soto. (Kim Klement / USA Today)

Houston Astros: Framber Valdez

The Astros have had significant success in the international market in recent years. It is a big reason why the organization has been able to lose players like Gerrit Cole and George Springer in free agency and not miss a beat. Cristian Javier, Yurí Gurriel, Luis García and José Urquidy were all signed as amateur free agents within the past 10 years. But the best of the bunch is Framber Valdez, who overcame countless rejections to finally land a pro contract with the Astros in 2015 and has quickly become one of the elite left-handed starters in baseball. — Melissa Lockard

Kansas City Royals: Esteury Ruiz

The Royals won the World Series in 2015 with Salvador Perez, Yordano Ventura and Kelvin Herrera playing major roles, but the club hasn’t turned an international signing into a regular player in more than a decade. The oft-injured Adalberto Mondesi, for instance, was signed in 2011. The best signing is probably Dominican infielder turned outfielder Esteury Ruiz, who was signed in 2015. Ruiz was traded to the Padres in 2017 and was on the move a lot in the last year, eventually ending up in Oakland. One other name to watch: 22-year-old Venezuelan shortstop Maikel García. — Rustin Dodd

Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani

This is an easy one for the Angels. Roberto Baldoquin has to be the choice. I kid, and apologize for that, Angels fans. The real answer is Shohei Ohtani. The Angels haven’t had much success in developing international free agents. But Ohtani is clearly the outlier. The modern-day Babe Ruth. One of the most unique and talented players of his time, or all time. There’s no one close to him on the list of Angels signings to choose from. Ohtani has also come at a relative bargain, with 2023 his first significant payday. The question is how long he’ll stay in Anaheim. — Sam Blum

Los Angeles Dodgers: Yordan Alvarez

Julio Urías missed this cutoff, having been signed in 2012. That leaves the Dodgers’ most notable international signing of the last decade as a reminder of one of their few major whiffs on the trade front in that period as well. Yordan Alvarez never played a game in the organization before being dealt to Houston for reliever Josh Fields, but has since emerged as one of the most fearsome hitters in the sport. He’s already accumulated 13.6 bWAR in four seasons despite largely serving as a designated hitter and missing nearly all of 2020, punctuating things with a top-3 finish for MVP last year and a titanic blast to help the Astros clinch a World Series win. It’s been a productive signing, even though the Dodgers surely wish that production came in their uniform. — Fabian Ardaya

Miami Marlins: Eury Pérez

The Marlins have a sizable heap of promising international prospects that would fit in this category. The jury is still out on them, but given the strides made in 2022 it feels appropriate to spotlight Eury Pérez here. The lanky fireballer towers over everyone who steps into the box against him. His 6-foot-9 frame makes it hard for even the likes of Reds star prospect Elly De La Cruz to get a good read on anything coming out of Pérez’s hand. He’s far from a one-trick pony, though. He couples his hard heater with three plus or better pitches. He’s also so poised that at 19 years old last season he outdid Double-A Southern League competitors who were on average five years older than him. — Maria Torres


Eury Pérez. (Photo courtesy of the Pensacola Blue Wahoos)

Milwaukee Brewers: Jackson Chourio

The answer here shows how unsuccessful many of the recent international signing classes have been for the Brewers and it also highlights just how good the player can be. It’s Jackson Chourio. The Brewers signed Chourio as a 16-year-old shortstop/center fielder from Venezuela in 2021. Already, he has skyrocketed atop Milwaukee’s prospect rankings. He has a shot to claim the top spot among prospects in baseball. In his age-18 season last year, Chourio slashed .288/.342/.538 with 20 home runs and 16 stolen bases. He split time mostly between the Class A levels, but he also appeared in six games for Double-A Biloxi. — Will Sammon

Minnesota Twins: Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez was far from a top prospect when he signed with the Twins for just $40,000 as a 16-year-old out of Venezuela in 2013. He was 5-foot-nothing, with zero power and mediocre speed, and it wasn’t clear where he’d fit best defensively. Turns out, it didn’t really matter, as Arraez’s exceptional bat control and plate discipline got him to the big leagues in 2019. He’s a career .314 hitter in 389 major-league games after hitting .331 in the minors, and now he’s a 25-year-old All-Star and batting champion. — Aaron Gleeman

New York Mets: Andrés Giménez

The Mets signed Andrés Giménez for $1.2 million as part of their 2015 international signing class. In 2020, Giménez, a gifted infielder from Venezuela, finished seventh for NL Rookie of the Year. In January 2021, the Mets included Giménez in their trade package for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco. With the Guardians last season, Giménez posted a terrific season: In 557 plate appearances, he had 17 home runs and a .837 OPS with 20 stolen bases and a 6.1 fWAR. For those curious, Amed Rosario, who was also part of that trade with Cleveland, signed during the cycle before the cutoff period for this exercise. — Will Sammon

New York Yankees: Oswald Peraza

New York signed the shortstop prospect out of Venezuela in 2016, and he’s quickly turned into one of the Yankees’ best overall prospects. Oswald Peraza was briefly called up at the end of this season and flashed enough at the plate and in the field to make those around the team believe he’s ready to have an opportunity to be the Yankees’ starting shortstop by opening day. An honorable mention should go to fellow Venezuelan Oswaldo Cabrera. The Yankees signed Cabrera when he was 16 years old for $100,000. Now the 23-year-old might become the team’s starting left fielder this season. — Chris Kirschner

Oakland Athletics: Jordan Díaz

Twenty-five years ago, the A’s had a strong pipeline of talent flowing from their international scouting efforts, which produced All-Stars like Miguel Tejada, Ramon Hernández, Angel Berroa and Santiago Casilla. Since then, the pipeline has run dry, first from lack of funds, and more recently from development not going as planned. Despite giving out large six-figure bonuses to players such as Lazaro Armenteros, Robert Puason and Pedro Pineda, the A’s biggest international signing success of the last decade has been Jordan Díaz, who signed out of Colombia for $275,000 in July 2016. Infielder Jordan Díaz had an .881 OPS in his age-21 season last year and made his major-league debut. He’s one of the best pure hitters in the A’s organization. — Melissa Lockard


Jordan Díaz. (Danne Braden / Midland RockHounds)

Pittsburgh Pirates: Rodolfo Castro

It’s a close race between infielders Rodolfo Castro and Ji Hwan Bae. Castro, 23, signed for $150,000 in October 2015 out of the Dominican Republic. He’s had brief stints in the majors the past two seasons and batted .224/.288/.419 with 16 homers. This year, he’ll go into spring training with a chance to win the starting job at second base. Bae, 23, originally was signed by the Braves, but joined the Pirates in 2018 for $1.25 million when the Braves were penalized for rule violations. Bae made his big league debut last summer and has a good chance to break camp with the Pirates this year. Castro has gotten a bit more big-league playing time and has more pop in his bat, so for now I’ll go with him — Rob Biertempfel

Philadelphia Phillies: Sixto Sánchez

He never threw a pitch in the majors for the Phillies, but Sixto Sánchez was one of the club’s best investments in the last decade. Sánchez cost only $35,000 to sign. He developed into a top prospect before he turned 19 and the Phillies used him as the centerpiece in a trade with Miami for J.T. Realmuto. The Phillies have had success in turning small-bonus international amateurs into prospects but not necessarily big-league talent. Sánchez, who last pitched in the majors in the 2020 postseason, is still only 24. But injuries have derailed him. — Matt Gelb

San Diego Padres: Emmanuel Clase

The Padres signed Emmanuel Clase for $125,000 in January 2015, and he spent three seasons in the low levels of the organization as a talented but erratic right-hander. Questions about his maturity encouraged San Diego to trade him for catcher Brett Nicholas in 2018. Over the last couple of years, Clase has made multiple teams regret moving on from him; since Texas sent him to Cleveland in a 2019 deal to acquire Corey Kluber, Clase has emerged as maybe the best reliever in baseball, wielding an absurd cutter that averages 100 mph. That pitch, along with a similarly elite slider, has helped the 24-year-old closer to a 1.47 ERA across his first two seasons with the Guardians. In 2022, Clase logged a 1.36 ERA while leading the majors in saves, appearances and games finished. — Dennis Lin

San Francisco Giants: Camilo Doval

Only two international free agents signed after 2013 have made the majors for the Giants: Camilo Doval and Kervin Castro. So the answer is Doval from a pure value standpoint. So, uh, the answer is Doval. And maybe the Giants should fix this.

The answer will almost certainly be Marco Luciano, though. Prospects are volatile, but it’s hard to see how someone with his bat speed and ability to stick up the middle of the diamond can’t have at least an average major-league career. Considering the last international player to get an at-bat with the Giants was Pablo Sandoval, who signed as a free agent in 2003, back when most people had dial-up modems, Luciano can’t come soon enough. — Grant Brisbee

Seattle Mariners: Julio Rodríguez

It took $1.75 million for the Mariners to sign outfielder Julio Rodríguez in 2017, which probably now feels like couch change after the return the 22-year-old has already provided the club. Rodríguez ran away with the American League Rookie of the Year Award and even earned a seventh-place finish in the AL MVP vote after a big first season in the big leagues. Add to that the 12-year extension he signed in the summer that will guarantee him $210 million (with a chance to earn much more). The sky is the limit for him. — Corey Brock


Julio Rodríguez. (Joe Nicholson / USA Today)

St. Louis Cardinals: Sandy Alcántara

The Cardinals signed then-18-year-old Sandy Alcántara as part of their 2013-2014 international class, back when current assistant general manager Moisés Rodríguez served as the organization’s director of international scouting. Alcántara debuted for St. Louis in 2017 but was traded to Miami the following offseason for Marcell Ozuna, a move president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has probably lost some sleep over in hindsight. Since that trade, Alcántara has established himself as one of the top starting pitchers in baseball with two National League All-Star berths under his belt along with unanimously winning the National League Cy Young Award in 2022. — Katie Woo

Tampa Bay Rays: Wander Franco

Wander Franco the Wunderkind is a star for a reason. He was limited to 83 games because of lower body issues and a hamate bone fracture that required surgery, but he still showed glimpses of his star status at points throughout the year. Despite missing large swaths of the season, the Rays’ manager still pointed to his own excitement to watch Franco put up big numbers in 2023. We should side with Kevin Cash on this. Franco, signed out of the Dominican Republic not even six years ago, is just barely getting started. — Maria Torres

Texas Rangers: Jonathan Hernández

The obvious answer would be Leody Taveras, but for the price ($300,000), it’s hard to top Jonathan Hernández. At the time, his fastball was in the 80s and he was considered a deception-first guy who wouldn’t overpower hitters. Now armed with a triple-digit “turbo-sinker,” he’s a legit back-end reliever who could find himself in the closer role in 2023. Ask again in a few years, though: it’s very possible that the answer could change to Taveras or Luisangel Acuña. — Levi Weaver

Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The Blue Jays have become highly regarded for their international scouting over the last several years, but their best signing of the last decade has to be Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Signed as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in 2015, his family ties meant Guerrero was a recognizable name, but his hitting prowess is what got him noticed. He continued to blossom in their system and debuted with the Blue Jays in 2019 to much fanfare. After an adjustment period, he’s developed into one of the best young hitters in baseball, a Gold Glove-winning first baseman, and a player the Blue Jays are building a playoff-calibre team around. — Kaitlyn McGrath

Washington Nationals: Juan Soto

Remember the kid who had to wait until the 2019 World Series was almost over to legally consume alcohol in beer showers? The one with the swaggy shuffle at the plate? Who once carried his bat all the way up the first base line and dropped it at the feet of his first base coach after obliterating a Justin Verlander heater? It was Juan Soto. His short career in Washington will resonate forever in the nation’s capital. — Maria Torres

(Top photo of Shohei Ohtani: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)



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Carlos Correa, Twins accelerate talks as deal with Mets remains in limbo

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The possibility of a stunning reunion between Carlos Correa and the Twins is increasing, team sources said Monday night.

With the status of the mega-deal he agreed to with the New York Mets last month unresolved, the Twins suddenly are back in the mix for the free-agent shortstop. Two club sources said Monday that talks between the Twins and Correa have begun to accelerate. A separate major-league source confirmed the development as well.

Talks are fluid, and the Mets are not necessarily out of the bidding. But 19 days have passed since the Mets reached agreement with Correa on a 12-year, $315 million contract, pending a physical. The Mets, like the San Francisco Giants before them, grew concerned over the condition of Correa’s right ankle during their medical review. As the parties continue to negotiate contract language, Correa’s agent, Scott Boras, reached out to other teams, including the Twins. 

In November, Correa opted out of the three-year, $105.3 million contract he signed with the Twins in March 2022. Still, the club hadn’t been shy about wanting to retain Correa, who batted .291/.366/.467 with 22 home runs, 64 RBIs and produced 4.9 Wins Above Replacement last season. 


Carlos Correa being introduced by the Twins alongside president of baseball operations Derek Falvey in March 2022. (Brace Hemmelgarn / Getty Images)

Minnesota’s original efforts, which included a 10-year, $285 million offer, failed when Correa agreed to a 13-year, $350 million contract with the Giants on Dec. 14. A week after signing with San Francisco, the accord fell apart over a difference of opinions about Correa’s physical exam. The Mets’ deal quickly stalled for the same reason.

Despite those concerns, Boras and the Mets have tried to find a path to get the two-time All-Star shortstop to New York. Correa originally was so thrilled to hear the Mets signed him last month that he tackled Boras onto a hotel bed during a celebration. 

The Twins, however, have remained in constant contact with Boras, sources said, creating a potential landing spot if Correa’s deal with the Mets falls apart.

All along, the Twins expected Correa and the Mets to finalize their agreement, but Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey kept his club prepared just in case.

While sources said the Twins always knew a big-market club could “blow them out of the water” on a larger deal, the team made it clear it was very interested in bringing Correa back and was open to being creative with potential for opt outs and other protections in a deal. 

Last March, Boras lauded the Twins’ front office for its creativity when the two sides hammered out the original contract for Correa in a span of 14 hours. The Twins also gained experience putting together incentive-laden deals after completing a seven-year, $100 million extension for oft-injured center fielder Byron Buxton in December 2021, a contract that includes up to $10 million in annual performance bonuses based on staying on the field.

While the Twins would definitely want to conduct their own physical with Correa, the team already has a sense of his overall condition after conducting a thorough exam last March. 

Even though the Twins performed an exit exam on Correa in October, those are often limited to areas of concern that arose during a player’s regular-season visits to the trainer’s room. Aside from an incident in May when Correa thought he broke his finger, team sources indicated the shortstop never set foot in the trainer’s room, not even after he writhed in pain on the ground after a hard slide into second base in a Sept. 20 contest at Kansas City. 

After that game, Correa acknowledged he had a metal plate inserted in his right leg, the result of an injury that occurred when he was in the minor leagues in 2014.

“He just hit my plate,” Correa said, referring to the hardware in his leg. “I had surgery and he hit it. Just kind of felt numb. Vibrating. So I was just waiting for it to calm down. It was a little scary, but when I moved I knew I was good.”

Aside from the finger, which cost him 12 games, and a late-May bout with COVID-19, which resulted in eight games missed, Correa was quite durable for the Twins. He appeared in 136 of the remaining 142 games and was a fixture in the lineup for a Twins team that suffered injury after injury throughout the season. 

The Twins loved what Correa brought to them in their one season together, a mix of swagger and baseball savvy. And now, in yet another stunning turn, they are in position to bring the Correa saga full circle, back to Minnesota. 

(Top photo: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)



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Mets have concerns with Carlos Correa’s physical: Sources

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It’s the physical. Again.

The New York Mets, like the San Francisco Giants earlier in the week, have raised concerns about Carlos Correa’s surgically repaired lower right leg, potentially jeopardizing their 12-year, $315 million agreement with the star shortstop, according to people briefed on the matter who were not authorized to speak publicly.

The parties could agree to a restructured contract if the Mets continue to express reservations about the long-term stability of Correa’s leg. It might be difficult for the Mets to back out of the agreement entirely after their owner, Steve Cohen, went on record talking about the deal. It also might be difficult for Correa to re-enter the free-agent market and land a comparable contract after two clubs identified the same issue in their physical examinations of him.

The new developments are the latest twist in a saga that shocked the baseball world when Correa and his agent, Scott Boras, pivoted Wednesday from their original 13-year, $350 million agreement with the Giants to strike a separate deal with the Mets.

Cohen confirmed his apparent coup to the New York Post, saying, “We needed one more thing, and this is it.” Major League Baseball warns teams not to comment publicly on pending agreements, noting such remarks might persuade an arbitrator to side with the player in a grievance, a former executive said.

If the Mets remain uncomfortable with Correa’s long-term prognosis, one way to alter the agreement would be to insert language saying that portions of the deal would not be guaranteed if Correa missed a set amount of time with a specific leg problem. Boras, however, might fight any attempt to alter the deal.


(Wendell Cruz / USA Today Sports)

Correa, who has played in 148 and 136 games the past two seasons, underwent his physical with the Mets on Thursday, Boras said. Teams generally make agreements official the day after the player’s medical exams unless an issue arises. The Giants were set to follow precisely that plan earlier in the week.

San Francisco struck its deal with Correa on Dec. 13. Correa underwent his physical on Monday, and the Giants scheduled an introductory news conference for Tuesday. But the team postponed the news conference that morning and later confirmed “a difference of opinion over the results of Carlos’ physical examination.”

Correa, 28, required arthroscopic surgery to repair a fractured right fibula and minor ligament damage after he hit an RBI triple and his spike got stuck on the bag in June 2014, when he was 19 and still in the minor leagues with the Astros. Astros GM Jeff Luhnow said at the time Correa’s fracture was nearer to the ankle than his knee.

In eight major-league seasons, Correa has never gone on the injured list with a right-leg problem. He made reference to the hardware in his leg after a game on Sept. 20 in which he appeared to be injured following a hard slide, but missed no time afterward.

“He just hit my plate,” Correa told reporters. “I had surgery and he hit it. Just kind of felt numb. Vibrating. So I was just waiting for it to calm down. It was a little scary, but when I moved I knew it was good.”

The Twins medically cleared Correa for a three-year, $105.3 million free-agent contract last March, then made him a subsequent 10-year, $285 million offer after he opted out of the deal at the start of the offseason. If Correa had accepted, the team would have applied greater scrutiny to his physical than it did initially because of the long-term nature of the deal, sources said.

Boras sought to re-engage the Twins after the Giants declined to complete their deal with Correa. But unlike the Mets, who went up $27 million from their first discussion with Correa, the Twins were not willing to move from their initial offer. The Twins also would not have advanced the conversation without investigating the potential issues caused by Correa’s physical with the Giants, major-league sources said.

Boras said Wednesday the Giants advised him they wanted to talk to other doctors before proceeding with Correa, but he was not willing to wait.

GO DEEPER

Scott Boras: ‘No current issue’ with Carlos Correa’s health as Mets conduct physical

“I said, ‘Look, I’ve given you a reasonable time. We need to move forward on this. Give me a time frame. If you’re not going to execute, I need to go talk with other teams,’” Boras said.

“You’re talking about a player who has played eight major-league seasons. There are things in his medical record that happened decades ago. These are all speculative dynamics.

“Every team has a right to go through things and evaluate things. The key thing is, we gave them (the Giants) medical reports at the time. They still wanted to sign the player and negotiate with the player.”

Team medical personnel occasionally offer different interpretations of a player’s medical records, just as a doctor giving a second opinion on a patient can disagree with the first. The Mets amount to Correa’s second opinion. And they appear to be confirming the first.

(Photo: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)



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Mets have concerns with Carlos Correa’s physical: Sources

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It’s the physical. Again.

The New York Mets, like the San Francisco Giants earlier in the week, have raised concerns about Carlos Correa’s surgically repaired lower right leg, potentially jeopardizing their 12-year, $315 million agreement with the star shortstop, according to people briefed on the matter who were not authorized to speak publicly.

The parties could agree to a restructured contract if the Mets continue to express reservations about the long-term stability of Correa’s leg. It might be difficult for the Mets to back out of the agreement entirely after their owner, Steve Cohen, went on record talking about the deal. It also might be difficult for Correa to re-enter the free-agent market and land a comparable contract after two clubs identified the same issue in their physical examinations of him.

The new developments are the latest twist in a saga that shocked the baseball world when Correa and his agent, Scott Boras, pivoted Wednesday from their original 13-year, $350 million agreement with the Giants to strike a separate deal with the Mets.

Cohen confirmed his apparent coup to the New York Post, saying, “We needed one more thing, and this is it.” Major League Baseball warns teams not to comment publicly on pending agreements, noting such remarks might persuade an arbitrator to side with the player in a grievance, a former executive said.

If the Mets remain uncomfortable with Correa’s long-term prognosis, one way to alter the agreement would be to insert language saying that portions of the deal would not be guaranteed if Correa missed a set amount of time with a specific leg problem. Boras, however, might fight any attempt to alter the deal.


(Wendell Cruz / USA Today Sports)

Correa, who has played in 148 and 136 games the past two seasons, underwent his physical with the Mets on Thursday, Boras said. Teams generally make agreements official the day after the player’s medical exams unless an issue arises. The Giants were set to follow precisely that plan earlier in the week.

San Francisco struck its deal with Correa on Dec. 13. Correa underwent his physical on Monday, and the Giants scheduled an introductory news conference for Tuesday. But the team postponed the news conference that morning and later confirmed “a difference of opinion over the results of Carlos’ physical examination.”

Correa, 28, required arthroscopic surgery to repair a fractured right fibula and minor ligament damage after he hit an RBI triple and his spike got stuck on the bag in June 2014, when he was 19 and still in the minor leagues with the Astros. Astros GM Jeff Luhnow said at the time Correa’s fracture was nearer to the ankle than his knee.

In eight major-league seasons, Correa has never gone on the injured list with a right-leg problem. He made reference to the hardware in his leg after a game on Sept. 20 in which he appeared to be injured following a hard slide, but missed no time afterward.

“He just hit my plate,” Correa told reporters. “I had surgery and he hit it. Just kind of felt numb. Vibrating. So I was just waiting for it to calm down. It was a little scary, but when I moved I knew it was good.”

The Twins medically cleared Correa for a three-year, $105.3 million free-agent contract last March, then made him a subsequent 10-year, $285 million offer after he opted out of the deal at the start of the offseason. If Correa had accepted, the team would have applied greater scrutiny to his physical than it did initially because of the long-term nature of the deal, sources said.

Boras sought to re-engage the Twins after the Giants declined to complete their deal with Correa. But unlike the Mets, who went up $27 million from their first discussion with Correa, the Twins were not willing to move from their initial offer. The Twins also would not have advanced the conversation without investigating the potential issues caused by Correa’s physical with the Giants, major-league sources said.

Boras said Wednesday the Giants advised him they wanted to talk to other doctors before proceeding with Correa, but he was not willing to wait.

GO DEEPER

Scott Boras: ‘No current issue’ with Carlos Correa’s health as Mets conduct physical

“I said, ‘Look, I’ve given you a reasonable time. We need to move forward on this. Give me a time frame. If you’re not going to execute, I need to go talk with other teams,’” Boras said.

“You’re talking about a player who has played eight major-league seasons. There are things in his medical record that happened decades ago. These are all speculative dynamics.

“Every team has a right to go through things and evaluate things. The key thing is, we gave them (the Giants) medical reports at the time. They still wanted to sign the player and negotiate with the player.”

Team medical personnel occasionally offer different interpretations of a player’s medical records, just as a doctor giving a second opinion on a patient can disagree with the first. The Mets amount to Correa’s second opinion. And they appear to be confirming the first.

(Photo: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)



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Rosenthal: How did Mets and Carlos Correa land at 12 years, $315 million?

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So, how was it that the Mets and Carlos Correa settled at 12 years and $315 million when they reached agreement on a free-agent contract early Wednesday morning?

It’s not all that complicated: The Mets came up $27 million from their initial conversation with Correa on Dec. 13, shortly before he agreed with the Giants on his ill-fated 13-year, $350 million deal.

During the first set of talks, Mets owner Steve Cohen also mentioned a 12-year framework for Correa. The team’s proposed number, according to sources briefed on the discussions, was $288 million, or $24 million per season.

Cohen was willing to increase the guarantee to $300 million to close the deal, but Correa’s agent, Scott Boras, conveyed to the owner it would not be enough.

At the time, as Boras advanced his discussions with the Giants, it wasn’t.

The Mets’ initial suggestion also was just $3 million above the Twins’ 10-year, $285 million offer to Correa, and had a lower average annual value. The Mets were willing to guarantee Correa two more years than the Twins, but $4.5 million less per season overall.

But when the Giants confirmed in a statement a “difference of opinion over the results of Carlos’ physical examination,” the dynamic changed.

Boras told the Giants he needed to talk to other teams. He contacted the Twins and re-engaged with Cohen. The Twins did not want to increase their bid, or even advance the conversation without investigating the potential issues caused by Correa’s physical, sources said.

The Mets were another story.

Upon re-engaging with Boras, Cohen offered $300 million, knowing the Giants’ $350 million agreement was, at the very least, on hold. Boras balked. The negotiations continued. The Mets banked on one slight advantage they had over the Giants — California’s state income tax rate of 13.3 percent is the highest in the nation, while New York’s rate of 10.9 percent ranks third.

Eventually, the parties struck a deal at $315 million, an increase of $2.25 million per season over the Mets’ initial 12-year concept. The agreement is pending a physical, which was scheduled to take place Thursday. If the contract is completed, Correa will move from shortstop to third base.

Correa’s $350 million agreement with the Giants would have given him the fourth-highest total value in major-league history and highest for a shortstop, the position he would have played in San Francisco. His $315 million contract with the Mets would be the 10th-highest overall, and rank second on the team behind shortstop Francisco Lindor’s $341 million deal.

Correa would take less of a hit in average annual value, dropping from $26.92 million with the Giants to $26.25 million with the Mets. Both figures would rank 32nd overall.

(Photo: Raj Mehta / USA Today Sports)



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Steve Cohen’s Mets spending spree and the ramifications for the rest of the league

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Most major league owners treat their teams like businesses. Steve Cohen, one of his former employees said, approaches the Mets like something else entirely.

“The way he looks at this business is so different than his hedge fund,” the employee said Wednesday. “It’s more like how he buys art. And he just spends whatever it takes on art. The guy’s got a billion dollars worth of art in his house. He gets it because he can.”

As baseball’s wealthiest owner, Cohen is better positioned to assemble a super-team than any other. But the fraternity of owners does not usually look kindly to those who break from the pack, particularly when it raises costs for them.

“I think it’s going to have consequences for him down the road,” said an official with another major league team who was not authorized to speak publicly. “There’s no collusion. But … there was a reason nobody for years ever went past $300 million. You still have partners, and there’s a system.”

Cohen’s choice to hike his payroll to upward of $380 million before luxury-tax penalties — with a 12-year, $315 million agreement with Carlos Correa his latest prize — has already polarized the industry. He’s not just blowing past $293 million, which is the fourth and highest tier of the competitive balance tax — the penalty level introduced to the sport in March, which was immediately dubbed the “Steve Cohen tax.” He’s taken his payroll to a total level the sport hasn’t seen ever. And relative to his peers’ spending, Cohen is an outlier the game hasn’t seen since George Steinbrenner.

For at least two other groups, Cohen is a blessing: Mets fans, for one. And players. Cohen wants to win, which players love. But his spending also grows their overall markets and their haul.


Carlos Correa (Jeffrey Becker / USA Today)

Why have baseball players and their union fought against a salary cap for so long? The news you woke up to Wednesday morning is one of the many reasons. The Mets almost certainly could not sign Correa this winter in a cap system. Another Steinbrenner could never rise to spend again, period.

Steinbrenner’s son Hal, the Yankees’ chairman, has been more reserved with his spending relative to his father or Cohen. After a news conference for Aaron Judge on Wednesday, he said he didn’t regret voting for Cohen to become an owner.

“I don’t think I’ve ever regretted voting for any owner,” Steinbrenner said.

When a reporter told Steinbrenner that Cohen’s overnight agreement with Correa had “big-footed” the Judge announcement, Steinbrenner seemed amused.

“That sounds ugly: big-footed, what does that even mean?” he said. “It doesn’t bother me. Look, Steve’s put together a great team. We have a great team, too. So it doesn’t bother me. The timing is what it is. I’m focused on today.”

Steinbrenner generally praised the Mets, calling it “phenomenal” for the city and rivalry to have two great baseball teams.

There’s no guarantee the Mets win, of course. As another pricey Cohen pick-up, Justin Verlander, noted Tuesday, “the playoffs are a crapshoot.” But the Mets’ winter is arguably a boon to the sport. They’re creating a lot of news, and maybe more importantly to an entertainment business, they’re creating a storyline: the Evil Empire reimagined. Baseball thrives when there is theater, and teams trying to one-up each other creates drama.

“David and Goliath,” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said Wednesday. “I think it’s all good for narratives. They’re trying to put together a team that can’t be beat, and that their competition’s going to look forward to trying to beat.

“There’s a lot of owners out there spending a lot of money to make their franchises better, not just Steve Cohen and the New York Mets. He’s not a standalone in that way. We’ve spent a lot of money ourselves this winter. But there’s a lot of teams moving and shaking, and in most cases, that costs money.”

Fans of teams in smaller markets might disagree.

“Our sport feels broken now,” a different rival executive said Wednesday. “We’ve got somebody with three times the median payroll and has no care whatsoever for the long-term of any of these contracts, in terms of the risk associated with any of them. How exactly does this work? I’m having a hard time wrapping my head around it.”

That leads back to an age-old question: Are other owners not able to spend, or not willing to spend? Many with the league and some clubs would say the former, depending on the team, and many on the players’ side would suggest the latter. What teams believe they can afford is subjective based on what individual owners feel is appropriate for them, and most club financial records are not publicized. But different clubs definitely do have different revenues, and Cohen certainly has the deepest pockets based on reporting of his net worth.

“I think everyone in this room understands that we have a level of revenue disparity in this sport that makes it impossible for some of our markets to compete at some of the numbers we’ve seen,” commissioner Rob Manfred said generally at the Winter Meetings earlier this month. “And, you know, that’s not a positive. It’s like everything else in life, there’s good and bad in it.”

Whether Cohen ultimately cares how other owners feel, or whether he could actually be meaningfully hurt if he ignores those feelings, is a different question.

“This game is based on partnership and relationships, and these small markets are going to be really pissed at him,” the club official said. “They’re going to try and gin up s— and cause Rob (Manfred) to f—— get pissed at him. It’s not that they can do anything to him, but everybody needs help in this game. I don’t think he’s going to get any help.”

George Steinbrenner was long the target of other owners. In 2002, for example, Larry Dolan, then Cleveland’s owner, said, “George is a large part of our problem.”

How much did those attitudes hamper Steinbrenner in the end? Other owners did set out to change the system, at the least. Cashman last year noted that recent CBAs were designed “to prevent the Yankees from being the Yankees.”

Which brings us to the most recent CBA. One of the trade-offs the owners received for increasing the CBT thresholds was the creation of a new penalty tier that many in the industry thought only the Mets or the Dodgers would be likely to approach. In 2022, any dollars spent above $290 million would be taxed starting at 80 percent. The Mets were over by about $10 million.

In 2023, that upper tier starts at $293 million, and the Mets will be taxed at 90 percent for every dollar above. (They’re at a higher percentage this year because they’re a second-time offender.)

“If he would have went up to the Cohen tax, a little over, I think he would have been fine,” the club official said of Cohen. “But the fact that he blew past it, it kind of like embarrassed Rob and a lot of people. He went so far beyond it, it rendered the whole CBA — made them look stupid on the CBA negotiation. He flaunted it in their face.”

Hal Steinbrenner was a part of Manfred’s labor committee that worked closely on the new CBA. Wasn’t the fourth tier intended to dissuade exactly what Cohen has done?

“Well, or anybody,” Steinbrenner said Wednesday. “Clearly, yeah clearly, competitive balance is important to the game, and I remember meeting with you guys in March and I said, ‘No teams’ fans should come to spring training thinking they have no chance to make the playoffs.’ That’s not good for baseball. So, yeah, there was certainly a purpose to that.”

But there appears reason to doubt that the players or the owners thought the Cohen tax would have a strong effect. In the 2023 Mets case, every dollar over $293 million would have been taxed at 75 percent in the old CBA, compared to 90 now. A 15 percent difference, particularly for an owner already inclined to spend so much, is apparently not too meaningful.

In March, the owners certainly would have loved something more stringent — a higher tax rate, for example, never mind a cap. But the players also would have fought against it. Ultimately, baseball’s economic system grants an owner the freedom to spend, with some restraints. Players have long wanted that freedom preserved.

“If an owner is willing to spend 90 percent tax over $300 million, no CBA would solve for that absent an actual cap,” a person on the league’s side said Wednesday.

Nonetheless, as the players’ side has reckoned with in the last five years after the 2016 CBA, the result is the result, no matter the intent. The “Cohen tax” isn’t doing much of anything to deter its namesake, and Manfred might have some increasingly unhappy owners to calm down because of that.

And this is where Cohen’s spending could have a deeper effect. It’d be a little hyperbolic, a little cheeky to already be asking: Where were you when Steve Cohen started the 2026 lockout? But Cohen may have lit the fuse on perhaps the most quintessential behind-the-scenes fight in baseball: the big market versus the smaller market.

— The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal contributed to this story.

(Photo of Steve Cohen: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)



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