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Berkshire Hathaway rises as investors cheer strong earnings and Buffett’s near-record cash stockpile – CNBC
- Berkshire Hathaway rises as investors cheer strong earnings and Buffett’s near-record cash stockpile CNBC
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The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Biggest Price Drops since Housing Bust 1. Record Plunge in Seattle (-3.9%), Near-Record in San Francisco (-4.3%) & Denver. Drops Spread Across the US
Big drops in San Diego, Los Angeles, Dallas, Portland, Phoenix, Boston. Prices going down faster than they’d spiked? No way. Oops.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
This is the first month in this cycle that the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which lags reality on the ground by 4-6 months, is showing house price declines in all the metros in the index.
In Seattle, the month-to-month plunge was the steepest on record (-3.8%). In San Francisco, the month-to-month plunge (-4.3%) was the third-steepest on record, outdone only by the two worst months during Housing Bust 1 in 2008. In San Diego (-2.8%), Los Angeles (-2.3%), Phoenix (-2.1%), and other metros, the plunges were the worst since Housing Bust 1. And the declines are spreading across the country to other metros, including Dallas, Boston, Washington D.C., and Las Vegas.
These are serious declines for the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, where each month is a rolling three-month average which irons out the month-to-month variability.
Today’s release of the index was for “August,” which consists of the three-month average of closed home sales that were entered into public records in June, July, and August. Due to the delay between when a deal is made and when the “closed sale” is entered into public records, the time span for “August” roughly covers deals made in May through June. During that time, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached the 6% range. Today, we’re at 7%, and mortgage bankers are frazzled.
In the San Francisco Bay Area, house prices plunged 4.3% in “August” (three month moving average of June, July, and August) from July, the third-steepest plunge on record, outdone only by the two slightly steeper plunges during the depth of Housing Bust 1 in 2008. The plunge in August was an acceleration of the drops in July (-3.5%) and June (-1.3%).
The index has dropped 8.9% from the peak. Over those three months, the index plunged faster (-35 points) than prices had spiked during the last three months of the spike (+27 points). House prices going down faster than they’d spiked? No way, impossible. Oops.
This turn of events slashed the year-over-year gain to +5.6%, from +24% earlier this year, unwinding so far just the final stages of the ridiculous spike over the past two years. The index is now at the lowest level since January.
The Case Shiller Index for “San Francisco” covers five-counties of the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area: San Francisco, part of Silicon Valley, part of the East Bay, and part of the North Bay.
In the Seattle metro, house prices plunged 3.9% in August, the biggest month-to-month plunge on record, on top of the 3.1% plunge in July, and the 1.9% drop in June. The index has dropped 8.6% from the peak.
During the last three months of the spike, the index soared 33 points; over the first three months of the decline, the index plunged 36 points, like San Francisco unwinding faster than it had spiked. The index is now at the lowest level since January. The year-over-year gain shrank to +9.9% from +27% earlier this year.
The Case-Shiller Index uses the “sales pairs” method, comparing sales in the current month to when the same houses sold previously. The price changes within each sales pair are integrated into the index for the metro, and adjustments are made for home improvements and other factors (methodology). By tracking the change in dollars needed to buy the same house over time, the index is a measure of house price inflation.
In the San Diego metro, house prices fell 2.8% in August, the biggest month-to-month drop since Housing Bust 1, after the 2.5% drop in July, and the 0.7% drop in June, to the lowest level since January.
The index is down 5.9% from the peak and unwound with symmetrical speed the last three months of the spike. This slashed the year-over-year gain to 12.7%, from 29% earlier this year.
The current index value of 403 for San Diego means that home prices shot up by 303% since January 2000, when the index was set at 100. Based on the increase since 2000, San Diego used to be the #1 Most Splendid Housing Bubble in America, but has now fallen below Miami (+309%) and Los Angeles (+305%).
In the Los Angeles metro, house prices fell 2.3% in August from July, the steepest drop since Housing Bust 1, after having dropped 1.6% in July, and 0.4% in June. This slashed the year-over-year price gain to +12.1%, from +23% a few months ago. The index is down 4.3% from the peak.
In the Denver metro, house prices dropped 2.3% in August from July – the second steepest drop on record after January 2009 – following the 1.4% drop in July, and the 0.1% dip in June.
The index has dropped 3.7% from the peak, cutting the year-over-year gain in half, to 12.0%.
In the Portland metro, house prices dropped 1.9% in August, after the 1.1% drop in July, and the 0.1% dip in June, following a ridiculous spike.
The index has dropped 3.1% from the peak, cutting the year-over-year gain to +8.6%, from +19% earlier this year.
In the Dallas metro:
- Month over month: -2.3%, after the -0.4% dip in July.
- Year over year: +20.2%, down from +30% earlier this year.
- From the peak: -2.3%.
In the Phoenix metro:
- Month over month: -2.1% after -0.2% in July.
- Year over year: +17.1%, down from +32% earlier this year.
- From the peak: -2.3%.
In the Washington D.C. metro:
- Month over month: -15%, after the 0.7% dip in July.
- Year over year: +7.4%, down from +13% earlier this year.
- From the peak: -2.2%.
In the Boston metro:
- Month over month: -1.2% after -0.3% in July.
- Year over year: 11.4% from +15% earlier this year.
- From the peak: -1.5%.
Las Vegas metro:
- Month over month: -1.3% from the record in July.
- Year over year: +17.5%, down from +28% earlier this year.
- From the peak: -1.3%.
Tampa metro:
- Month over month: -0.5% from record in July
- Year over year: +28.0%, down from +36% earlier this year
- From peak: -0.5%
Miami metro:
- Month over month: -0.1% from record in July.
- Year over year: +28.6%, down from +34% earlier this year.
- From peak: -0.1%.
In the New York metro:
- Month over month: -0.5% from record in July
- Year over year: +12.3%, down from +15% earlier this year
- From peak: -0.5%
The New York metro has experienced 175% house price inflation since January 2000, based on the Case-Shiller Index value of 275. The remaining cities in the 20-City Case-Shiller Index (Chicago, Charlotte, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit, and Cleveland) have experienced less house price inflation and don’t qualify for this illustrious list of the most splendid housing bubbles. But all of them booked month-to-month declines in August.
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COVID-19 claims youngest victim in Los Angeles as county sees near-record number of deaths in single day
LOS ANGELES–A 15-month-old died from COVID-19 in Los Angeles County on Wednesday as the county is dealing with a surge of infections and a near-record number of deaths.
Fox 11 Los Angeles reported that there were an additional 90 new fatalities, bringing the pandemic’s death toll in the county to 28,630.
Healthcare worker go car to car at a drive-through COVID19 testing facility established by Total Testing Solutions in Boyle Heights on Tuesday, Jan. 25, 2022 in Los Angeles. (Irfan Khan / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
(Irfan Khan / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
The county called the child’s death– the youngest recorded in the system– a “stark reminder that the virus can cause devastating outcomes among those most vulnerable, including young children not yet eligible for vaccinations.”
Barbara Ferrer, the county public health director, said in a statement obtained by the Los Angeles Times that she sent her “heartfelt condolences” to the family.
Students return to campus at Olive Vista Middle School on the first day back following the winter break amid a dramatic surge in Covid-19 cases across Los Angeles County on January 11, 2022 in Sylmar, California. (Photo by Frederic J. BROWN / AFP) (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images)
(Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images)
The local Fox report said there were 4,534 COVID patients hospitalized in the county on Wednesday, which was a slight decrease from 4,554 a day earlier. The report said there were 780 patients in ICUs.
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The Los Angeles Unified School District recently tightened its mask-wearing requirement for students in school, mandating that they wear upgraded surgical-grade or N95-type masks, rather than cloth ones. The report said the district has also extended through February its mandated weekly testing for all students and staff, regardless of vaccination status.
Astronomers Discover Largest-Known Comet Was Active at Near-Record Distance
The Comet Bernardinelli-Bernstein (BB), represented in this artist’s rendition as it might look in the outer Solar System, is estimated to be about 1000 times more massive than a typical comet. The largest comet discovered in modern times, it is among the most distant comets to be discovered with a coma, which means ice within the comet is vaporizing and forming an envelope of dust and vapor around the comet’s core. Credit: NOIRLab/NSF/AURA/J. da Silva
University of Maryland astronomers discovered that comet Bernardinelli-Bernstein is among the most distant active comets from the sun, providing key information about its composition.
The largest comet ever discovered became active much farther from the sun than previously believed, according to a new study by University of Maryland astronomers.
Only one other active comet—meaning one that has formed an envelope of dust and vapor known as a coma—has been observed farther from the sun; however, it was much smaller than comet Bernardinelli-Bernstein (BB), which at 100 km in diameter dwarfs every other known comet by a hefty margin. (Halley’s comet, by comparison, is 15 km in diameter, while 1 km is typical.)
The finding, which will help astronomers determine what BB is made of and provide insight into conditions that existed billions of years ago during the formation of our solar system, was published on November 29, 2021, in The Planetary Science Journal.
“These observations are pushing the distances for active comets dramatically farther than we have previously known,” said Tony Farnham, a research scientist in the UMD Department of Astronomy and the lead author of the study.
Often called “dirty snowballs” or “icy dirtballs,” comets are conglomerations of dust and ice left over from the solar system’s early days. How warm they must be to start vaporizing as their orbit carries them closer to the sun depends on what kind of ice they contain: water, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide or some other frozen compound.
Scientists first discovered comet BB beyond the orbit of
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New study shows the largest comet ever observed was active at near-record distance
A new study by University of Maryland astronomers shows that comet Bernardinelli-Bernstein (BB), the largest comet ever discovered, was active long before previously thought, meaning the ice within it is vaporizing and forming an envelope of dust and vapor known as a coma. Only one active comet has been observed farther from the sun, and it was much smaller than comet BB.
The finding will help astronomers determine what BB is made of and provide insight into conditions during the formation of our solar system. The finding was published in The Planetary Science Journal on November 29, 2021.
“These observations are pushing the distances for active comets dramatically farther than we have previously known,” said Tony Farnham, a research scientist in the UMD Department of Astronomy and the lead author of the study.
Knowing when a comet becomes active is key to understanding what it’s made of. Often called “dirty snowballs” or “icy dirtballs,” comets are conglomerations of dust and ice left over from the formation of the solar system. As an orbiting comet approaches its closest point to the sun, it warms, and the ices begin to vaporize. How warm it must be to start vaporizing depends on what kind of ice it contains (e.g., water, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide or some other frozen compound).
Scientists first discovered comet BB in June 2021 using data from the Dark Energy Survey, a collaborative, international effort to survey the sky over the Southern hemisphere. The survey captured the bright nucleus of the comet but did not have high-enough resolution to reveal the envelope of dust and vapor that forms when the comet becomes active.
At 100 km across, comet BB is the largest comet ever discovered by far, and it is farther from the sun than the planet Uranus. Most comets are around 1 km or so and much closer to the sun when they are discovered. When Farnham heard about the discovery, he immediately wondered if images of comet BB had been captured by the Transient Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), which observes one area of the sky for 28 days at a time. He thought TESS’s longer exposure times could provide more detail.
Farnham and his colleagues combined thousands of images of comet BB collected by TESS from 2018 through 2020. By stacking the images, Farnham was able to increase the contrast and get a clearer view of the comet. But because comets move, he had to layer the images so that comet BB was precisely aligned in each frame. That technique removed the errant specks from individual shots while amplifying the image of the comet, which allowed researchers to see the hazy glow of dust surrounding BB, proof that BB had a coma and was active.
To ensure the coma wasn’t just a blur caused by the stacking of images, the team repeated this technique with images of inactive objects from the Kuiper belt, which is a region much farther from the sun than comet BB where icy debris from the early solar system is plentiful. When those objects appeared crisp, with no blur, researchers were confident that the faint glow around comet BB was in fact an active coma.
The size of comet BB and its distance from the sun suggests that the vaporizing ice forming the coma is dominated by carbon monoxide. Since carbon monoxide may begin to vaporize when it is up to five times farther away from the sun than comet BB was when it was discovered, it is likely that BB was active well before it was observed.
“We make the assumption that comet BB was probably active even further out, but we just didn’t see it before this,” Farnham said. “What we don’t know yet is if there’s some cutoff point where we can start to see these things in cold storage before they become active.”
According to Farnham, the ability to observe processes like the formation of a cometary coma farther than ever before opens an exciting new door for astronomers.
“This is just the beginning,” Farnham said. “TESS is observing things that haven’t been discovered yet, and this is kind of a test case of what we will be able to find. We have the potential of doing this a lot, once a comet is seen, going back through time in the images and finding them while they are at farther distances from the sun.”
The biggest comet ever seen will get as close as Saturn in 2031
More information:
Tony L. Farnham et al, Early Activity in Comet C/2014 UN271 Bernardinelli–Bernstein as Observed by TESS, The Planetary Science Journal (2021). DOI: 10.3847/PSJ/ac323d
Tony L. Farnham et al, Early Activity in Comet C/2014 UN271 Bernardinelli–Bernstein as Observed by TESS, The Planetary Science Journal (2021). DOI: 10.3847/PSJ/ac323d
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New study shows the largest comet ever observed was active at near-record distance (2021, November 29)
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Alaska reports 11 COVID-19 deaths and near-record hospitalizations Tuesday
Updated: 5 hours ago Published: 6 hours ago
Alaska on Tuesday reported 11 more virus-related deaths, 753 new COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations near record levels.
Alaska’s case rate over the past seven days remains the highest in the country and nearly five times the national average, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The deaths reported Tuesday involved an Anchorage man in his 50s; a man and a woman from Anchorage in their 60s; two women and one man from Anchorage in their 80s or older; a Fairbanks man in his 50s; a Fairbanks man in his 80s or older; a man and a woman from North Pole, both in their 70s; and a nonresident in his 50s who was diagnosed with COVID-19 in Fairbanks.
[Alaska Railroad rescinds employee vaccine mandate just days after announcing policy]
A total of 688 residents and 26 nonresidents in the state have died with the virus. Over the past week, Alaska’s death rate per 100,000 is the ninth-highest among U.S. states, but looking at the pandemic overall, Alaska has the fourth-lowest death rate in the country, according to CDC data.
While the state’s daily virus counts have plateaued recently, virus-related hospitalizations and deaths typically follow a few weeks behind spikes in cases, and hospital administrators say it may take weeks for a decline in cases to be reflected in hospitalization numbers.
As of Tuesday, hospitals reported having 234 COVID-positive patients, including 37 people on ventilators — a reflection of continued stress on the state’s health care system brought on the rapid spread of the delta variant in recent months.
About 64.8% of eligible Alaskans have received at least one vaccine dose, and around 60% of eligible Alaskans are considered fully vaccinated.
Statewide Tuesday, 9.32% of tests came back positive based on a seven-day rolling average.
[FDA advisers endorse reduced dose of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine for kids 5 to 11]