Tag Archives: NaturalGas

Natural-Gas Prices Plunge as Unseasonably Warm Weather Is Forecast

A sudden thaw across the Northern Hemisphere has melted down natural-gas prices, upending dire forecasts of energy shortages and sinking Vladimir Putin’s plan to squeeze Europe this winter.

It isn’t expected to remain as balmy as it was on Wednesday, when temperatures hit 66-degrees Fahrenheit in New York, but the forecasts that energy traders monitor call for abnormally warm weather extending into February, sapping demand for the heating fuel.

U.S. natural-gas futures for February delivery ended Wednesday at $4.172 per million British thermal units. That is down 57% from the summer highs notwithstanding a 4.6% gain on Wednesday that snapped a four-session losing streak, including an 11% drop on Tuesday. 

The price is now about the same as it was a year ago, when temperatures were also warmer than normal and before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine jolted energy markets.

The plunge is a bad omen for drillers, whose shares were among the stock market’s few winners last year. Cheaper gas is good news for households and manufacturers whose budgets have been busted and profit margins pinched by high fuel prices. Though shocks of cold and problems with pipelines could still push up regional prices, less expensive natural gas should help to cool inflation in the months ahead. 

There are also major geopolitical implications. Mild weather is driving gas prices lower in Europe, too, spelling relief for the region that coming into the winter faced the possibility of rolling blackouts and factory shutdowns. The war threw energy markets into chaos, but benchmark European natural-gas prices are now less than half of what they were a month ago and lower than any point since the February invasion. 

The drop is a welcome surprise for European governments that committed hundreds of billions of dollars to shield consumers and companies from high energy prices. Moscow cut supplies of gas to Europe last year in what European officials described as an attempt to undermine military and financial support for Kyiv.

So far, Russia’s strategy isn’t working. Warm weather is limiting demand, as is a European Union-led effort to curb consumption. But analysts say prices in Europe could shoot up again when the continent tries to refill stores for the 2023-24 winter without much Russian gas.

PHOTOS: How a 102-Year-Old Maritime Law Affects Today’s Home-Heating Prices

Besides being burned to heat roughly half of American homes, natural gas is used for cooking, along with making electricity, plastic, fertilizer, steel and glass. Last year’s high prices were a big driver of the steepest inflation in four decades.

When prices peaked in August, the question was whether there would be enough gas to get through the winter, given record consumption by domestic power producers with few alternatives, as well as demand in Europe, where the race is on to replace Russian gas.

Now the question in the market is how low prices will go.  

They were already falling when the late-December storm brought snow to northern cities and stranded travelers. Frigid temperatures prompted a big draw from U.S. natural-gas stockpiles and froze wells in North Dakota and Oklahoma. At its peak, the storm took nearly 21% of U.S. gas supply offline, according to East Daley Analytics, a gas consulting firm.  

The demand surge and the supply disruptions were fleeting and failed to counteract forecasts for balmy January weather. Prices were also pushed lower by another delay in the restart of a Texas export facility. It has been offline since a June fire left a lot of gas in the domestic market that would have otherwise been shipped overseas. 

Temperatures above 60 degrees Fahrenheit are forecast this week around the Great Lakes and along the Ohio Valley, while highs in the Southeast might reach into the 80s.

As measured in heating-degree days, a population-weighted measure of temperatures below 65 degrees Fahrenheit, this week will be twice as warm relative to normal as the last week of December was cold, said Eli Rubin, senior energy analyst at the gas-trading firm EBW AnalyticsGroup.

The firm estimates that warmer weather over the first half of January will reduce gas demand by about 100 billion cubic feet over that stretch. That is about the volume of gas that the U.S. produces each day. The Energy Information Administration estimates that daily American output hit a record in 2022.

Analysts anticipate similarly strong production in 2023. They expect the year to pass without new LNG export capacity coming online for the first time since 2016, when the U.S. began to ship liquefied natural gas abroad from the Lower 48 States. 

“The market is moving from a mind-set of winter scarcity to looking ahead to exiting winter with more in storage, adding production and not adding any new LNG exports,” Mr. Rubin said. “If anything, the market looks oversupplied.” 

Analysts have been reducing their gas-price assumptions as well as their outlooks for producers as the first weeks of winter pass without sustained periods of cold weather. 

Gabriele Sorbara, an analyst at Siebert Williams Shank, told clients this week that he expected natural gas to average $4.25 in 2023, down from a forecast of $5.50 before the warm spell. As a result, he downgraded shares of

EQT Corp.

, the biggest U.S. producer and one of the top-performing stocks in the S&P 500 last year, from buy to hold. 

“EQT will be dead money until estimates recalibrate and there is visibility of a rebound in natural-gas prices,” he wrote in a note to clients.  

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Hedge funds and other speculators have, on balance, been bearish on natural-gas prices since the summer, maintaining more wagers on falling prices than on gains, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Analysts said that is probably the safe bet. 

“We continue to caution against any attempts to time a price bottom,” the trading firm Ritterbusch & Associates told clients this week. 

—Joe Wallace contributed to this article.

Write to Ryan Dezember at ryan.dezember@wsj.com

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Russia Resumes Nord Stream Natural-Gas Supply to Europe

BERLIN—Russian natural gas began flowing again at a reduced volume through a critical pipeline into Europe on Thursday, according to its operator, buying time for governments to decouple from the Kremlin’s exports amid what they expect will be an increasingly unreliable supply of energy from Moscow heading into the winter.

The Nord Stream pipeline connecting Russia with Germany under the Baltic Sea resumed operation after its annual maintenance, ending 10 days of tense speculation about whether President

Vladimir Putin’s

regime would cut off the gas flow to Europe in retaliation for Western sanctions after his invasion of Ukraine.

The operator, Nord Stream AG, said the pipeline was in the process of restarting, which would take a few hours. “Gas is flowing,” a spokesman for the operator said.

The spokesman said flows are expected to be at pre-maintenance level of around 40% of total capacity, but it would take a few hours to reach that volume. One of the German network operators, NEL Gastransport GmbH, later said Thursday that this volume of gas was currently flowing through the pipe, as also confirmed by Nord Stream’s own online monitoring tool.

The German energy regulator said gas flows could reach 40% of capacity Thursday.

“Unfortunately, the political uncertainty and the 60% cut from mid-June remain,” the regulator’s head, Klaus Müller, said on Twitter.

The restart sent wholesale European natural-gas prices down 5% Thursday to €154.55, the equivalent of about $157.50, a megawatt-hour. Including Thursday’s fall, prices have fallen by 14% over the past week but have more than doubled this year and are more than four times as high as 12 months ago. The rally has propelled electricity prices to historic highs across Europe. Broader financial markets were steady Thursday as investors awaited earnings reports from major U.S. companies and an expected interest-rate increase by the European Central Bank.

A compressor station in Mallnow, Germany.



Photo:

filip singer/Shutterstock

The pipeline has been operating below capacity since Russia began throttling supplies in June, invoking technical issues related to Western sanctions against Russia.

Mr. Putin earlier this week said Russia would meet its contractual obligations for gas deliveries to Europe. The Nord Stream pipeline is the main conduit for Russian gas into Europe. Mr. Putin also warned that Western sanctions adopted to punish Russia in the wake of the invasion could cause further disruptions and cap pipeline volumes as low as 20%.

European officials and executives had worried the pipeline might not restart at all, or do so at even lower volumes. While gas is now flowing again, how much Russia sends—and for how long—will be closely watched by European capitals, who are in the midst of filling reservoirs for the higher-demand winter just a few months away.

An abrupt cutoff would have pushed Germany, Europe’s largest economy and industrial powerhouse, and several of its neighbors into a severe recession, according to most economists. But even reduced flows and the uncertainty regarding future supplies mean governments may still be forced to ration energy and subsidize mounting costs for households, experts and officials say.

Nord Stream channels gas extracted from Siberia by state-controlled Gazprom PJSC.

Mr. Putin this week blamed the drop on the absence of a turbine that had been held up in Canada after undergoing repairs because of Western sanctions, but is now on its way back to Russia.

Berlin and most Western experts said the cut in supplies was an attempt to pressure the West into easing sanctions and to push up gas prices. Several German officials and a Gazprom manager in Europe told The Wall Street Journal that Nord Stream had an elaborate contingency system with at least one spare turbine available at all times.

German officials say they expect the pipeline to continue to operate at its reduced pre-maintenance capacity—a level they think was deliberately set to prevent Germany and others from building up enough gas reserves for the winter. Because of technical reasons related to the pressure levels in the pipeline, Nord Stream can’t transport volumes below 30% of its capacity of 55 billion cubic meters a year.

A German government minister said that Mr. Putin was deliberately causing anxiety in the global energy markets, but that he was unlikely to sever supplies completely because it would remove his leverage and risk a harsher response from the West.

The reduced flows and uncertainty are already hitting Germany’s economy. The largest gas utility,

Uniper SE,

is in bailout talks with the German government. The company said Monday that it had drawn down a €2 billion, or $2.04 billion, credit line with German state-owned KfW bank. A German Economy Ministry spokesperson said Monday that the government was working with Uniper and its Finnish parent,

Fortum Oyj,

to find ways to help the company.

Germany and other European Union nations, which pledged to end purchases of Russian energy by 2024, are now working on two basic contingency plans.

The Nord Stream pipeline has been operating below capacity since Russia began throttling supplies in June.



Photo:

Markus Schreiber/Associated Press

The first envisages a status quo, with Nord Stream operating at around 40% of its capacity. Under that scenario, Germany, where gas storages are currently 65% full, would have to significantly reduce consumption compared with the previous year to avoid a shortfall in the winter. Some regions, however, are expected to be more severely affected, possibly triggering local measures such as limited factory shutdowns and a cut in supply to some businesses.

Under this scenario, Germany would be unable to completely fill its reserves before year-end, leaving the country vulnerable to new surprise supply cuts and keeping energy prices high.

This could be politically explosive for Berlin, with some 66% of Germans currently feeling that the government isn’t doing enough to tackle high energy prices, while 53% believe the sanctions are hurting Germany more than Russia, according to a Forsa poll published on Wednesday.

“We need to prepare for a war economy…the next two winters will be difficult,” said

Günther Oettinger,

a former chief energy official of the EU and German politician. “Our very democracy is in danger of disruption from the energy costs fallout.”

The second scenario, seen in Berlin as less likely according to German officials, foresees an end to Russian gas supplies before the end of the year, triggering an emergency plan that would allow Chancellor

Olaf Scholz

to take control of the gas market and ration consumption.

Under legislation that protects households and critical infrastructure, rationing would hit mainly businesses, leading to a drop in Germany’s gross domestic product of between 5% and 6% in 2023, according to estimates by

Deutsche Bank.

With many European countries that depend on Russian gas reliant on supplies transiting through Germany, irregular or dwindling supplies through Nord Stream would have effects across the continent.

The EU this week issued guidelines recommending measures to cut gas consumption by 15% between August 2022 and March 2023, including by limiting the temperature in office spaces to 66 degrees this winter.

Germany’s immediate neighbors are working on their own contingency plans.

Germany and Austria negotiated a deal to share their gas-storage capacity and help each other’s regions that are at risk of fuel shortages.

“Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is using energy as a weapon against us. It is clear that the cooperation with Germany, through which almost all gas flows to us, will be essential for us in this direction,” Josef Sikela, the minister of industry and trade of the Czech Republic, told reporters earlier this month.

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Europe is also adjusting its gas infrastructure, which has so far been largely geared to receive supply from Russia. Belgium and Germany are working to expand the capacity of a pipeline connecting the two nations, while Austria and Italy are looking into importing their infrastructure to be able to channel more Norwegian gas into their storage.

The Netherlands, once among the world’s largest gas producers, is considering temporarily prolonging the life of a gas field scheduled for closure after mining work there caused numerous earthquakes.

Many governments are trying to secure gas from other suppliers, from Norway to Algeria, the U.S. and Qatar, which often comes in the form of liquefied natural gas transported by ship.

Germany is building several LNG terminals on its coast to receive shipments from faraway countries and has chartered five floating terminals that can handle those inflows in the short term. Increased LNG purchases by EU nations—Germany alone is investing over €15 billion—have caused a shortage on the global market, leaving countries such as Pakistan struggling to access supply.

Berlin, meanwhile, has said it would review its decision to shut down its three remaining nuclear-power plants. It is already planning to increase use of coal to produce electricity this winter to save gas for heating.

Write to Bojan Pancevski at bojan.pancevski@wsj.com and Georgi Kantchev at georgi.kantchev@wsj.com

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