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Strong U.S. economic growth expected in fourth quarter, outlook darkening

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  • Fourth-quarter GDP forecast to increase at a 2.6% rate
  • Strong consumer spending seen; other sectors to contribute
  • Weekly jobless claims expected to rise moderately

WASHINGTON, Jan 26 (Reuters) – The U.S. economy likely maintained a strong pace of growth in the fourth quarter as consumers boosted spending on goods, but momentum appears to have slowed considerably towards the end of the year, with higher interest rates eroding demand.

The Commerce Department’s advance fourth-quarter gross domestic product report on Thursday could mark the last quarter of solid growth before the lagged effects of the Federal Reserve’s fastest monetary policy tightening cycle since the 1980s kick in. Most economists expect a recession by the second half of the year, though mild compared to previous downturns.

Retail sales have weakened sharply over the last two months and manufacturing looks to have joined the housing market in recession. While the labor market remains strong, business sentiment continues to sour, which could eventually hurt hiring.

“This looks like it could be the last really positive, strong quarterly print we’ll see for a while,” said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina. “Markets and most people will look through this number. More recent data are suggesting that economic momentum is continuing to slow.”

According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP growth likely increased at a 2.6% annualized rate last quarter after accelerating at a 3.2% pace in the third quarter. Estimates ranged from a 1.1% rate to a 3.7% pace.

Robust second-half growth would erase the 1.1% contraction in the first six months of the year.

Growth for the full year is expected to come in at around 2.1%, down from the 5.9% logged in 2021. The Fed last year raised its policy rate by 425 basis points from near zero to a 4.25%-4.50% range, the highest since late 2007.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, is expected to have grown at a pace faster than the 2.3% rate notched in the third quarter. That would mostly reflect a surge in goods spending at the start of the quarter.

Spending has been underpinned by labor market resilience as well as excess savings accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic. But demand for long-lasting manufactured goods, which are mostly bought on credit, has fizzled and some households, especially lower income, have depleted their savings.

Economic growth also likely received a lift from business spending on equipment, intellectual property and nonresidential structures. But with demand for goods tanking, business spending also lost some luster as the fourth quarter ended.

Despite the clear signs of a weak handover to 2023, some economists are cautiously optimistic that the economy will skirt an outright recession, but rather suffer a rolling downturn, where sectors decline in turn rather than all at once.

ROLLING RECESSION

They argue that monetary policy now acts with a shorter lag than was previously the case because of advances in technology and the U.S. central bank’s transparency, which they said resulted in financial markets and the real economy acting in anticipation of rate hikes.

“We will continue to have positive GDP numbers,” said Sung Won Sohn, a finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. “The reason is sectors are taking turns going down, and not simultaneous declining. The rolling recession began with housing and now we are seeing the next phase which is consumption related.”

Indeed, with demand for goods slumping, factory production has declined sharply for two straight months. Job cuts in the technology industry were also seen as flagging cutbacks in capital spending by businesses.

While residential investment likely suffered its seventh straight quarterly decline, which would be the longest such streak since the collapse of the housing bubble triggered the Great Recession, there are signs the housing market could be stabilizing. Mortgage rates have been trending lower as the Fed slows the pace of its rate hikes.

Inventory accumulation was seen adding to GDP last quarter, but with demand slowing, businesses are likely to focus on reducing stock in their warehouse rather than placing new orders, which would undercut growth in the quarters ahead.

Trade, which accounted for the bulk of GDP growth in the third quarter, was seen either making a small contribution or subtracting from GDP growth. Strong growth is expected from government spending.

While the labor market thus far has shown remarkable resilience, economists argue that deteriorating business conditions will force companies to slow hiring and lay off workers.

Companies outside the technology industry as well as interest-rate sensitive sectors like housing and finance are hoarding workers after struggling to find labor during the pandemic.

A separate report from the Labor Department on Thursday is likely to show initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose to a seasonally adjusted 205,000 for the week ended Jan. 21, from 190,000 in the prior week, according to a Reuters survey of economists.

“We expect initial jobless claims will eventually start to turn back up after their recent drop, consistent with an eventual downturn in payrolls and a rise in the unemployment rate,” said Kevin Cummins, chief economist at NatWest Markets in Stamford, Connecticut. “In turn, we expect spending to slow as consumers will be less willing to run down savings in the face of a deteriorating labor market.”

Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Business

Fed to deliver two 25-basis-point hikes in Q1, followed by long pause

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BENGALURU, Jan 20 (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve will end its tightening cycle after a 25-basis-point hike at each of its next two policy meetings and then likely hold interest rates steady for at least the rest of the year, according to most economists in a Reuters poll.

Fed officials broadly agree the U.S. central bank should slow the pace of tightening to assess the impact of the rate hikes. The Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 425 basis points last year, with the bulk of the tightening coming in 75- and 50-basis-point moves.

As inflation continues to decline, more than 80% of forecasters in the latest Reuters poll, 68 of 83, predicted the Fed would downshift to a 25-basis-point hike at its Jan. 31-Feb 1 meeting. If realized, that would take the policy rate – the federal funds rate – to the 4.50%-4.75% range.

The remaining 15 see a 50-basis-point hike coming in two weeks, but only one of those was from a U.S. primary dealer bank that deals directly with the Fed.

The fed funds rate was expected to peak at 4.75%-5.00% in March, according to 61 of 90 economists. That matched interest rate futures pricing, but was 25 basis points lower than the median point for 2023 in the “dot plot” projections issued by Fed policymakers at the end of the Dec. 13-14 meeting.

“U.S. inflation shows price pressures are easing, yet in an environment of a strong jobs market, the Federal Reserve will be wary of calling the top in interest rates,” noted James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.

The expected terminal rate would be more than double the peak of the last tightening cycle and the highest since mid-2007, just before the global financial crisis. There was no clear consensus on where the Fed’s policy rate would be at the end of 2023, but around two-thirds of respondents had a forecast for 4.75%-5.00% or higher.

The interest rate view in the survey was slightly behind the Fed’s recent projections, but the poll medians for growth, inflation and unemployment were largely in line.

Inflation was predicted to drop further, but remain above the Fed’s 2% target for years to come, leaving a relatively slim chance of rate cuts anytime soon.

In response to an additional question, more than 60% of respondents, 55 of 89, said the Fed was more likely to hold rates steady for at least the rest of the year than cut. That view lined up with the survey’s median projection for the first cut to come in early 2024.

However, a significant minority, 34, said rate cuts this year were more likely than not, with 16 citing a plunge in inflation as the biggest reason. Twelve said a deeper economic downturn and four said a sharp rise in unemployment.

“The Fed has prioritized inflation over employment, therefore only a sharp decline in core inflation can convince the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to cut rates this year,” said Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank.

“While the peak in inflation is behind us, the underlying trend remains persistent … we do not think inflation will be close to 2% before the end of the year.”

Reuters Poll- U.S. Federal Reserve outlook

In the meantime, the Fed is more likely to help push the economy into a recession than not. The poll showed a nearly 60% probability of a U.S. recession within two years.

While that was down from the previous poll, several contributors had not assigned recession probabilities to their forecasts as a slump was now their base case, albeit a short and shallow one as predicted in several previous Reuters surveys.

The world’s biggest economy was expected to grow at a mere 0.5% this year before rebounding to 1.3% growth in 2024, still below its long-term average of around 2%.

With mass layoffs underway, especially in financial and technology companies, the unemployment rate was expected to rise to average 4.3% next year, from the current 3.5%, and then climb again to 4.8% next year.

While still historically low compared to previous recessions, the forecasts were about 1 percentage point higher than a year ago.

(For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll:)

Reporting by Prerana Bhat; Polling by Milounee Purohit; Editing by Ross Finley and Paul Simao

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Business

Wall St slips as labor market data fuels Fed worry

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  • Procter & Gamble falls after commodity cost pressure warning
  • Netflix down ahead of quarterly results
  • Dow down 0.76%, S&P 500 down 0.76%, Nasdaq down 0.96%

NEW YORK, Jan 19 (Reuters) – U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Thursday after data pointing to a tight labor market renewed concerns the Federal Reserve will continue its aggressive path of rate hikes that could lead the economy into a recession.

A report from the Labor Department showed weekly jobless claims were lower than expected, indicating the labor market remains solid despite the Fed’s efforts to stifle demand for workers.

Expectations the central bank would further dial down the size of its interest rate increases at its policy announcement next month were unchanged by the report.

Investors have been looking for signs of weakness in the labor market as a key ingredient needed for the Fed to begin to slow its policy tightening measures.

Jobless claims

Other data showed manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region was subdued again in January, while data from the commerce department confirmed the recession in the housing market persisted.

“What we are seeing is the market carving out a bottom in the uncertainty so the news is having less of an effect and what we are seeing today is really just a continuation of that,” said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, an independent broker-dealer in Waltham, Massachusetts.

“The fact we are not seeing more of a reaction says a lot of the bad news is out there.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 252.4 points, or 0.76%, to 33,044.56, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 30.01 points, or 0.76%, to 3,898.85 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 104.74 points, or 0.96%, to 10,852.27.

Traders work at the post where Carvana Co. is traded on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 7, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Recent comments from Fed officials continue to highlight the disconnect between the central bank’s view of its terminal rate and market expectations.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins echoed comments from other policymakers to support the case for interest rates to rise beyond 5%.

But stocks moved off their session lows after Fed vice chair Lael Brainard said the Fed is still “probing” for the level of interest rates that will be necessary to control inflation.

Markets, however, see the terminal rate at 4.89% by June and have largely priced in a 25-basis point rate hike from the U.S. central bank in February, with rate cuts in the back half of the year. .

Both the S&P 500 and the Dow fell for a third straight session, their longest streak of declines in a month.

On the earnings front, Procter & Gamble Co (PG.N) declined 2.11% after warning of commodity costs pressuring profits, despite raising its full-year sales forecast.

Analysts now expect year-over-year earnings from S&P 500 companies to decline 2.8% for the fourth quarter, according to Refinitiv data, compared with a 1.6% decline in the beginning of the year.

Netflix Inc (NFLX.O) closed 3.23% lower ahead of its results scheduled for release after the closing bell on Thursday. But the stock rebounded to gain 3.33% after posting subscriber gains for the quarter and the departure of co-founder Reed Hastings as chief executive to an executive chairman role.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.49-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.70-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 3 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 46 new highs and 33 new lows.

Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak, editing by Deepa Babington

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Business

U.S. inflation subsiding as consumer prices fall; labor market still tight

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  • Consumer prices fall 0.1% in December
  • CPI increases 6.5% year-on-year
  • Core CPI rises 0.3%; up 5.7% year-on-year
  • Weekly jobless claims fall 1,000 to 205,000

WASHINGTON, Jan 12 (Reuters) – U.S consumer prices fell for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December amid declining prices for gasoline and motor vehicles, offering hope that inflation was now on a sustained downward trend, though the labor market remains tight.

Americans also got more relief at the supermarket last month, with the report from the Labor Department on Thursday showing food prices posting their smallest monthly increase since March 2021. But rents remained very high and utilities were more expensive.

Cooling inflation could allow the Federal Reserve to further scale back the pace of its interest rate increases next month. The U.S. central bank is engaged in its fastest rate hiking cycle since the 1980s.

“The mountain peak of inflation is behind us but the question is how steep the downhill is,” said Sung Won Sohn, finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. “To be sure, the efforts by the Fed have begun to bear fruit, even though it will be a while before the promised land of a 2% inflation rate is here.”

The consumer price index dipped 0.1% last month, the first decline since May 2020, when the economy was reeling from the first wave of COVID-19 cases. The CPI rose 0.1% in November.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI unchanged. It was third straight month that the CPI came in below expectations and raised buying power for consumers as well as hopes the economy could avoid a dreaded recession this year.

“The current trajectory could deliver a softer landing, stronger jobs market and a less aggressive stance from the Fed but only time will tell,” said James Bentley, director at Financial Markets Online.

Gasoline prices tumbled 9.4% after dropping 2.0% in November. But the cost of natural gas increased 3.0%, while electricity rose 1.0%.

Food prices climbed 0.3%, the smallest gain in nearly two years, after rising 0.5% in the prior month. The cost of food consumed at home increased 0.2%, also the least since March 2021. Fruit and vegetable prices fell as did those for dairy products, but meat, poultry and fish cost more. Egg prices surged 11.1% because of avian flu.

In the 12 months through December, the CPI increased 6.5%. That was the smallest rise since October 2021 and followed a 7.1% advance in November. The annual CPI peaked at 9.1% in June, which was the biggest increase since November 1981. Inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target.

President Joe Biden welcomed the disinflationary trend, saying it was “giving families some real breathing room,” and “proof that my plan is working.”

Price pressures are subsiding as higher borrowing costs cool demand, and supply chains ease.

The Fed last year raised its policy rate by 425 basis points from near zero to a 4.25%-4.50% range, the highest since late 2007. In December, it projected at least an additional 75 basis points of hikes in borrowing costs by the end of 2023.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI climbed 0.3% last month after rising 0.2% in November. In the 12 months through December, the so-called core CPI increased 5.7%. That was the smallest gain since December 2021 and followed a 6.0% advance in November.

Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices rose.

Reuters Graphics

GOODS DEFLATION

Prices for used cars and trucks fell 2.5%, recording their sixth straight monthly decline. New motor vehicles slipped 0.1%, falling for the first time since January 2021.

Core goods prices slipped 0.3%, declining for a third straight month. Apparel prices rose despite retailers offering discounts to clear excess inventory. While goods deflation is becoming entrenched, services, the largest component of the CPI basket, accelerated 0.6% after gaining 0.3% in November.

Core services, which exclude energy, rose 0.5% last month after increasing 0.4% in November.

They are being driven by sticky rents. Owners’ equivalent rent, a measure of the amount homeowners would pay to rent or would earn from renting their property, jumped 0.8% after rising 0.7% in November. Independent measures, however, suggest rental inflation is cooling.

The rent measures in the CPI tend to lag the independent gauges. Healthcare costs gained 0.1% after two straight monthly declines. Stripping out rental shelter, services inflation shot up 0.4% after being unchanged in November.

The moderation in inflation will be welcomed by Fed officials, though they will probably want to see more compelling evidence of abating prices pressures before pausing rate hikes.

Labor costs account for about two-thirds of the CPI. The labor market remains tight, with the unemployment rate back at a five-decade low of 3.5% in December, and 1.7 jobs for every unemployed person in November.

A separate report from the Labor Department showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 205,000 for the week ended Jan. 7.

Economists had forecast 215,000 claims for the latest week. Claims have remained low despite high-profile layoffs in the technology industry as well as job cuts in interest rate-sensitive sectors like finance and housing.

Economists say companies are for now reluctant to send workers home after difficulties finding labor during the pandemic. The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, dropped 63,000 to 1.634 million in the week ending Dec. 31, the claims data showed

The government reported last week the economy created 223,000 jobs in December, more than double the 100,000 that the Fed wants to see to be confident inflation is cooling.

“Until labor supply and demand show better harmony, the Fed will worry higher inflation is just around the corner,” said Will Compernolle, a senior economist at FHN Financial in New York.

Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Business

Biden’s climate agenda has a problem: Not enough workers

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Jan 11 (Reuters) – U.S. clean energy companies are offering better wages and benefits, flying in trainers from overseas, and contemplating ideas like buying roofing and electric repair shops just to hire their workers as firms try to overcome a labor shortage that threatens to derail President Joe Biden’s climate change agenda.

The Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law last year, provides for an estimated $370 billion in solar, wind and electric vehicle subsidies, according to the White House. Starting Jan. 1, American consumers can take advantage of those tax credits to upgrade home heating systems or put solar panels on their roofs. Those investments will create nearly 537,000 jobs a year for a decade, according to an analysis by BW Research commissioned by The Nature Conservancy.

Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics

But with the U.S. unemployment rate at an historic low of 3.5%, companies say they fear they will struggle to fill those jobs, and that plans to transition away from fossil fuels could stall out. Despite layoff announcements and signs of a slowdown elsewhere in the economy, the labor market for clean energy jobs remains tight.

“It feels like a big risk for this expansion. Where are we going to find all the people?” said Abigail Ross Hopper, president of the Solar Energy Industries Association trade group.

The shortage is anticipated to hit especially hard in electric vehicle and battery production and solar panel and home efficiency installations, forcing some of the companies into bold new approaches to find workers.

Korea’s SK Innovation Co Ltd, which makes batteries for Ford Motor Co’s (F.N) F-150 Lightning all-electric pickup truck in Commerce, Georgia, has pumped up pay and benefits as it ramps up its U.S. workforce to 20,000 people by 2025 from 4,000 today.

The battery maker is advertising pay between $20 and $34 an hour, above Georgia’s median hourly wage of $18.43, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is also covering 100% life insurance costs and matching retirement plan contributions up to 6.5%, above the national average of 5.6%, according to the Plan Sponsor Council of America. And the company is providing free food on the job.

“Georgia’s talent pool is not really massive. But we are trying to improve some of our policies to better source and retain workers,” said an SK official who declined to be named, citing the sensitivity of the matter.

Georgia state officials said SK’s hiring has been a success considering how quickly production had to ramp up to meet the company’s obligations to automakers.

While national residential solar installer SunPower Corp (SPWR.O) is recruiting aggressively, Chief Executive Peter Faricy said the company is also looking at what he called “crazy ideas” to secure labor – including buying up companies just for their workers.

“I’m not suggesting we will do this, but I want to give you an order of magnitude of what we’re considering. Like, should we acquire a roofing company and make them all solar installers? Do we go buy an electrical company and acquire 100 electricians?” he said.

SunPower also held talks within the last year with panel manufacturer First Solar Inc (FSLR.O) about developing a solar panel that would be easier to install, enabling crews to outfit two homes a day instead of just one, Faricy said.

SunPower’s competitor, Sunrun Inc (RUN.O), is deploying drones to survey roofs ahead of installation, reducing the number of workers required to scale roofs. It is also rewarding top crews with office parties.

“As best you can game-ify the experience for the employee… it just makes the industry more fun, more attractive,” Chris McClellan, Sunrun’s senior vice president of operations, said in an interview.

Offshore wind developer Orsted (ORSTED.CO), a Danish company that is planning to build projects off the East Coast, hopes to fly in employees from projects in the United Kingdom and Asia to help train staff. State reports have indicated that New York and Massachusetts face large offshore wind workforce gaps.

“We’re creating sort of an ecosystem where we don’t just have an offshore wind academy, but really train the trainers of the future,” said Mads Nipper, Orsted’s CEO, told Reuters.

The Biden Administration has repeatedly promised that new green energy jobs would be well-paying union jobs.

But many of those jobs have lagged the fossil fuel industry in pay, according to a 2021 study by BW Research, as clean energy companies have sought to contain costs to compete with entrenched industries. The IRA seeks to address that by tying prevailing wage and apprenticeship requirements to the subsidies.

Those provisions — and the hiring challenges — have put pressure on some employers to use unionized labor.

Learning from its earlier hiring challenges in Europe and Asia, Orsted signed an agreement with North America’s Building Trades Unions to secure workers.

Even Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O), a company that has been embroiled in disputes with workers trying to organize, has used union labor to build the electric charging infrastructure for its fleet of electric delivery vehicles in Maspeth, Queens, NY.

Amazon did not respond to requests for comment.

Corrine Case, an electrician represented by the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, said she was paid $43 an hour to install the charging system at Amazon.

A single mother, Case said she was excited about the job security offered by the rising demand for electricians to install charging stations.

“Our field is constantly changing because of new energy sources and to be a part of that is amazing,” she said.

FREE WORKER TRAINING

In their hunt for workers, solar, wind and electric vehicle companies have expanded programs offering free and subsidized training to military veterans, women and the formerly incarcerated.

SK told Reuters that it has been recruiting at military job fairs and American Legion chapters and collaborating with programs like the Georgia National Guard’s Work for Warriors and the Manufacturing Institute’s Heroes MAKE America.

Some solar companies have tried to recruit veterans, saying the skills learned in military life translate well to the industry.

Utility scale solar developer SOLV Energy, SunPower and Nextracker last year teamed up with nonprofit Solar Energy International to fund a women-only training program for solar installers. More than 30 women attended the week-long course in Colorado.

In October, the nonprofit Solar Hands-On Instructional Network of Excellence (SHINE) teamed up with the Virginia Department of Corrections on a pilot program to train 30 prison inmates and recently incarcerated people in solar panel installation. SHINE’s director David Peterson said the group is discussing expanding the program.

In California, the nonprofit Grid Alternatives has trained 150 inmates at the Madera County jail in solar installation since 2017 and is expanding its program this year to other facilities in the state. Potential employers are more open to hiring the formerly incarcerated once they see they have received some training, Tom Esqueda, the nonprofit’s outreach manager, said.

In Los Angeles, nonprofit Homeboy Industries, which works to rehabilitate former gang members, is using the potential job opportunities for solar panel installers to help recruits for its state-funded jobs program. Homeboy trains 50-60 people a year as solar panel installers.

More than 80% of the people who have gone through the training in the last year have found jobs in solar, according to Jackie Harper, who oversees the program.

“I’m going to be sticking with this,” said Marco Reyes, 28, who went through the program after his release from prison in February and earns $23 an hour as an installer in Valencia, California.

He now plans to train in the electrical end of solar installation, which would bump up his pay.

“Everyone has a chance to move up the ladder into a better position,” he said. “This job to me is a life changer.”

Read more:

Korea’s Hanwha Qcells to invest $2.5 bln in U.S. solar supply chain

U.S. solar installations to fall 23% this year due to China goods ban -report

Reporting by Nichola Groom and Valerie Volcovici; Edited by Richard Valdmanis and Suzanne Goldenberg

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Business

New Fed research flags rising risk of U.S. recession

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NEW YORK, Dec 30 (Reuters) – Just over half of the 50 U.S. states are exhibiting signs of slowing economic activity, breaching a key threshold that often signals a recession is in the offing, new research from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank report said.

That report, released Wednesday, followed another report from the San Francisco Fed from earlier in the week that also delved into the rising prospect that the U.S. economy may fall into recession at some point in coming months.

The St. Louis Fed said in its report that if 26 states have falling activity within their borders, that offers “reasonable confidence” that the nation as a whole will fall into a recession.

Right now, the bank said that as measured by Philadelphia Fed data tracking the performance of individual states, 27 had declining activity in October. That’s enough to point to a looming downturn while standing short of the numbers that have been seen ahead of some other recessions. The authors noted that 35 states suffered declines ahead of the short and sharp recession seen in the spring of 2020, for example.

Meanwhile, a San Francisco Fed report, released Tuesday, observed that changes in the unemployment rate can also signal a downturn is on the way, in a signal that offers more near-term predictive value than the closely-watched bond market yield curve.

The paper’s authors said that the unemployment rate bottoms out and begins to move higher ahead of recession in a highly reliable pattern. When this shift occurs the unemployment rate is signaling the onset of recession in about eight months, the paper said.

The paper acknowledged its findings are akin to those of the Sahm Rule, named for former Fed economist Claudia Sahm, who pioneered work linking a rise in the jobless rate to economic downturns. The San Francisco Fed research, written by bank economist Thomas Mertens, said its innovation is to make the jobless rate change a forward-looking indicator.

Unlike the St. Louis Fed state data that is tipping toward a recession projection, the U.S. jobless rate has thus far remained fairly stable, and after bottoming at 3.5% in September, it held at 3.7% in both October and November.

The San Francisco Fed paper noted that the Fed, as of its December forecasts, sees the unemployment rate rising next year amid its campaign of aggressive rate hikes aimed at cooling high levels of inflation. In 2023, the Fed sees the jobless rate jumping up to 4.6% in a year where it sees only modest levels of overall growth.

If the Fed’s forecast comes to pass, “such an increase would trigger a recession prediction based on the unemployment rate,” the paper said. “Under this view, low unemployment can lead to a heightened probability of recession when the unemployment rate is expected to rise.”

Tim Duy, chief economist with SGH Macro Advisors, said he believes that to achieve what the Fed wants on the inflation front, the economy would likely “lose roughly two million jobs, which would be a recession like 1991 or 2001.”

Anxiety over the prospect of the economy falling into recession has been driven by the Fed’s forceful actions on inflation. Many critics contend that the central bank is focusing too much on inflation and not enough on keeping Americans employed. Central bank officials have countered that without a return to price stability, the economy will struggle to meet its full potential.

What’s more, in the press conference following the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting earlier this month, central bank leader Jerome Powell said that he didn’t view the current Fed outlook as a recession prediction given the expectation growth will remain positive. But he added much remains uncertain.

“I don’t think anyone knows whether we’re going to have a recession or not and, if we do, whether it’s going to be a deep one or not. It’s just, it’s not knowable,” Powell said.

Reporting by Michael S. Derby;
Editing by Dan Burns and Aurora Ellis

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Business

Wall Street falls fourth straight day as recession worries nag

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  • Fed hikes, recession fears in focus
  • L3Harris slides after $4.7 bln Aerojet buyout Indexes down: Dow 0.49%, S&P 0.90%, Nasdaq 1.49%

Dec 19 (Reuters) – Wall Street closed lower on Monday for a fourth straight session with Nasdaq leading declines as investors shied away from riskier bets, worried the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign could push the U.S. economy into a recession.

The three major U.S. stock indexes have been under pressure since Wednesday, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell took a hawkish tone while the central bank raised interest rates. Powell promised further rate increases even as data showed signs of a weakening economy.

The S&P 500 (.SPX), the Dow Jones industrials (.DJI) and the Nasdaq have sold off sharply for December and are on track for their biggest annual declines since the 2008 financial crisis.

While U.S. Treasury yields gained, investors ran from stocks, eyeing prospects of safer bets as they worried about the likelihood of a recession in 2023 according to Brian Overby, senior markets strategist at Ally.

“Investors are asking why do I want to take those risks going into 2023 with the Fed’s stance still aggressive when I can get such a good yield on the fixed income market place,” he said.

The lack of big earnings reports or economic data on Monday likely sharpened investors’ focus on economic fears and interest rates, according to Melissa Brown, Global Head of Applied Research at Qontigo in New York.

“It’s a knife edge between whether we’re going to teeter into a recession or have a soft landing. Is the Fed acting appropriately?” said Brown who also noted that moves may be exaggerated as many investors take vacation around the end-of-year holidays.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 162.92 points, or 0.49%, to 32,757.54, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 34.7 points, or 0.90%, to 3,817.66 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 159.38 points, or 1.49%, to 10,546.03.

The biggest decliners among S&P industry sectors were communications services (.SPLRCL), which fell 2.2%, consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD), down 1.7% and technology (.SPLRCT), which lost 1.4%. Energy (.SPNY) outperformed, closing up 0.13% as the sole industry out of 11 to manage a gain.

Market heavyweights such as Apple Inc (AAPL.O), Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) and Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) created some of the biggest drags on the market.

Trading in Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) was volatile with the electric carmaker closing down 0.24% after falling as much as 2.8% during the session. This was after a Twitter poll that showed a majority of respondents want Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk to step down as CEO of the social media platform.

Meta Platforms (META.O) shares finished down 4.1% after the European Commission said it could impose a fine of up to 10% of the tech conglomerate’s annual global turnover if evidence showed an infringement of the EU’s antitrust laws.

L3Harris Technologies Inc (LHX.N) lost 3.6% after the U.S. defense contractor said it would buy hypersonic engine manufacturer Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings Inc (AJRD.N) for $4.7 billion. Aerojet added 1.3%.

Shares of casino operators Melco Resorts & Entertainment tumbled just under 8% and Wynn Resorts (WYNN.O) lost 5.2% while Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS.N) fell 2.3% after Macau said on Friday that six casino firms will invest around $15 billion as part of new 10-year contracts they signed to operate in the world’s biggest gambling hub.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.80-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.63-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted 5 new 52-week highs and 20 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 66 new highs and 456 new lows.

On U.S. exchanges 11.07 billion shares changed hands, compared with the 11.59 billion average for the last 20 trading days.

Reporting by Sinéad Carew, Sruthi Shankar, Shubham Batra, Johann M Cherian and Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty, Maju Samuel and David Gregorio

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World

China’s factory, retail sectors skid as COVID hits growth

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  • China’s industrial output growth slows more than expected
  • Retail sales contraction deepens
  • Property investment falls most in over two decades
  • Nationwide jobless rate climbs
  • Near-term outlook darkens following COVID relaxation – analysts

BEIJING, Dec 15 (Reuters) – China’s economy lost more steam in November as factory output slowed and retail sales extended declines, both missing forecasts and clocking their worst readings in six months, hobbled by surging COVID-19 cases and widespread virus curbs.

The data suggested a further deterioration in economic conditions as lockdowns in many cities, a property-sector crunch and weakening global demand pointed to a bumpy road ahead even as Beijing ditched some of the world’s toughest anti-virus restrictions following widespread and rare public protests.

Industrial output rose 2.2% in November from a year earlier, missing expectations for a 3.6% gain in a Reuters poll and slowing significantly from the 5.0% growth seen in October, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed on Thursday. It marked the slowest growth since May, partly due to disruptions in key manufacturing hubs Guangzhou and Zhengzhou.

Retail sales fell 5.9% amid broad-based weakness in the services sector, also the biggest contraction since May. Analysts had expected the gauge of consumption to shrink 3.7%, accelerating from a 0.5% dip in October.

In particular, sales in the contact-intensive catering sector fell 8.4% from a year earlier, accelerating from the 8.1% decline in October.

Meanwhile, automobile production slumped 9.9%, swinging from an 8.6% gain in October.

China’s yuan eased against the dollar on Thursday, as the data hit investor confidence.

“The weak activity data suggest that the policy needs to be eased further to revive the growth momentum,” said Hao Zhou, chief economist at GTJAI. “The increased size of the MLF rollover this morning is in line with the overall easing policy tones. Looking ahead, we also forecast that the rates for MLF will be lowered by 10bps next Q1.”

China’s central bank ramped up cash injections into the banking system on Thursday and held interest rates on the medium-term policy loans, or MLF, to keep liquidity conditions ample.

Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics

The world’s second-largest economy has been depressed by its zero-COVID policy, as tight movement controls hampered consumption and production. Other headwinds the country faces are its property slump, global recession risks and geopolitical uncertainties.

Property investment fell 19.9% year-on-year, the fastest pace since the statistics bureau began compiling data in 2000, according to Reuters calculations based on data from the NBS.

Policymakers have rolled out support for the sector on almost all fronts, including credit lines from banks, bond financing and equity financing, but analysts said such effects have yet to be seen as home sales still remained weak.

Fixed asset investment expanded 5.3% in the first 11 months of the year, versus expectations for a 5.6% rise and growth of 5.8% in January-October.

Hiring remained low among companies wary about their finances. The nationwide jobless rate rose to 5.7% in November from 5.5% in October. Youth unemployment dipped to 17.1% from 17.9% in October.

“December data might be even worse – that’s not because everything is getting worse in China, because the end of the tunnel is coming,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist of Asia-Pacific at Natixis.

“I am expecting a big collapse in industrial production in December. This will be the immediate consequence of the opening up,” she said, downgrading GDP growth in the fourth quarter to 2.8% from 3% previously.

China has set out plans to expand domestic consumption and investment, state media said on Wednesday, as policymakers face multiple challenges following abrupt relaxations of harsh COVID-related restrictions, which are expected to usher in a surge of infections.

That would hit businesses and consumers, while a weakening global economy hurts Chinese exports.

China’s economy grew just 3% in the first three quarters of this year and is expected to stay around that rate for the full year, well below the official target of “around 5.5%”.

All eyes are on the closed-door annual Central Economic Work Conference, when Chinese leaders gather to set next year’s economic agenda. They will likely map out more stimulus steps, eager to underpin growth and ease disruptions caused by a sudden end to COVID-19 curbs, policy insiders and analysts said.

($1 = 6.9593 Chinese yuan)

Additional reporting by Liz Lee, Liangping Gao and Kevin Yao; Editing by Sam Holmes

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Business

Wall Street ends lower as investors digest economic data

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  • U.S. producer prices increase in November
  • Consumer sentiment improves in December
  • Lululemon tumbles after downbeat forecast
  • Indexes close: S&P 500 -0.73%, Nasdaq -0.70%, Dow -0.90%

Dec 9 (Reuters) – Wall Street ended lower on Friday as investors assessed economic data and awaited a potential 50-basis point interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve at its policy meeting next week, while apparel company Lululemon slumped following a disappointing profit forecast.

U.S. producer prices rose slightly more than expected in November amid a jump in the costs of services, but the trend is moderating, with annual inflation at the factory gate posting its smallest increase in 1-1/2 years, data showed.

“Today’s data shows that inflation is coming down, but it’s lingering and is stickier than most assume,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan.
However, in December, consumer sentiment improved, while inflation expectations eased to a 15-month low, a University of Michigan survey showed.

Futures trades suggest a 77% chance the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 basis points next week, with a 23% chance of a 75-basis point hike, with those odds little changed after Friday’s economic data.

Consumer prices data for November, due Tuesday, will provide fresh clues on the central bank’s monetary tightening plans.

Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU.O) tumbled almost 13% after the Canadian athletic apparel maker forecast lower-than-expected holiday-quarter revenue and profit.

Netflix Inc (NFLX.O) gained 3.1% after Wells Fargo upgraded the video streaming giant to “overweight” from “equal weight”.

The S&P 500 declined 0.73% to end the session at 3,934.38 points.

The Nasdaq declined 0.70% to 11,004.62 points, while Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.90% to 33,476.46 points.

[1/7] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 9, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, 10 declined, led lower by energy (.SPNY), down 2.33%, followed by a 1.28% loss in health care (.SPXHC).

The energy index recorded a seventh straight session of losses, its longest losing streak since December 2018, as oil prices looked set for weekly losses on recession concerns.

Wall Street’s main indexes have fallen this week after logging two straight weekly gains. Weighing heavily on investors are fears of a potential recession next year due to extended the central bank’s rate hikes.

For the week, the S&P 500 dropped 3.4%, the Dow lost 2.8% and the Nasdaq shed 4%.

U.S. stocks ended a recent run of losses on Thursday after data showed initial jobless claims rose modestly last week.

Broadcom Inc (AVGO.O) jumped 2.6% after the chipmaker forecast current-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates.

Boeing Co climbed 0.3% after Reuters report the plane maker plans to announce a deal with United Airlines (UAL.O) for orders of 787 Dreamliner next week.

Declining stocks outnumbered rising ones within the S&P 500 (.AD.SPX) by a 3.3-to-one ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 5 new highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 54 new highs and 213 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was relatively light, with 9.9 billion shares traded, compared to an average of 10.9 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions.

Reporting by Sruthi Shankar, Ankika Biswas and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru, and by Noel Randewich in Oakland, Calif.; Editing by Vinay Dwivedi, Sriraj Kalluvila, Shounak Dasgupta and Aurora Ellis

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Business

U.S. heading into shallow recession, no respite from rate hikes yet: Reuters poll

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BENGALURU, Dec 9 (Reuters) – The U.S. economy is heading into a short and shallow recession over the coming year, according to economists polled by Reuters who unanimously expected the U.S. Federal Reserve to go for a smaller 50 basis point interest rate hike on Dec. 14.

The Fed has another half-point at least to go with rates early in the new year with inflation still running well above the Fed’s 2% target even though economists put a steady 60% probability on a recession taking place in 2023.

After raising the federal funds rate 75 basis points at each of the previous four meetings, all 84 economists polled Dec. 2-8 expected the central bank to go for a slightly softer half a percentage point to 4.25%-4.50% this time.

While the central bank is attempting only to deliver some pain and not a full-fledged downturn, economists, who tend to be slow as a group in forecasting recessions, raised the probability of one in two years to 70% from 63% previously.

That suggests investors and stock markets may have gotten ahead of themselves with optimism over the past month that the world’s largest economy may skirt a recession entirely. That is already showing up in safe-haven flows to the U.S. dollar.

“Unless inflation recedes quickly, the U.S. economy still appears headed for some trouble, though possibly a little later than expected. The relative good news is that the downturn should be tempered by extra savings,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

“But this assumes the economy’s durability doesn’t compel the Fed to slam the brakes even harder, in which case a delayed downturn might only flag a deeper one.”

Although the fed funds rate is expected to peak at 4.75%-5.00% early next year in line with interest rate futures, one-third of economists, 24 of 72, expected it to go higher.

There are already clear signs the economy is slowing, particularly in the U.S. housing market, often the first to react to tightening financial conditions, and the epicenter of the 2007-08 recession.

Existing home sales (USEHS=ECI) have fallen for nine months in a row. And house prices, already in retreat, were expected to drop 12% peak-to-trough and nearly 6% next year, a separate Reuters poll showed.

Around 60% of economists, 27 of 45, who provided quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts, predicted a contraction for two straight quarters or more at some point in 2023.

A large majority of economists, 35 of 48, said any recession would be short and shallow. Eight said long and shallow, while four said there won’t be any recession. One said short and deep.

The world’s largest economy was forecast to grow just 0.3% next year, and expand at annual rates well below its long-term average of around 2% until 2024.

Over 75% of economists, 29 of 38, who answered a separate question said the risk to their GDP forecasts was skewed to the downside.

But with inflation expected to stay above the Fed’s target at least until 2026 and the labor market remaining strong, the bigger risk was rates would peak higher and later than expected.

“With core inflation likely remaining stubbornly high, we now anticipate the current tightening process to continue through Q2 2023,” said Jan Groen, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, who expected the fed funds rate to peak at 5.25%-5.50% in May.

“There remains a risk of an even higher terminal rate given the high and sticky rates of core inflation and still strong labor market conditions,” he added.

The U.S. unemployment rate (USUNR=ECI), which so far has stayed low, was expected to climb from the current 3.7% to 4.9% by early 2024. If realized, that would still be well below the levels seen in previous recessions.

(For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll:)

Reporting by Indradip Ghosh; Polling by Sujith Pai and Swathi Nair; Editing by Ross Finley and Chizu Nomiyama

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