Tag Archives: Morgan Stanley

Elon Musk’s Twitter Takeover Debt to Be Held by Banks Amid Turbulent Markets

Banks that committed to help finance

Elon Musk’s

takeover of Twitter Inc. plan to hold all $13 billion of debt backing the deal rather than syndicate it out, according to people familiar with the matter, in another blow to a market that serves as a crucial source of corporate funding.

Twitter could have the dubious distinction of being the biggest so-called hung deal of all time, surpassing a crop of them in the global financial crisis, when banks were stuck with around $300 billion of committed debt they struggled to sell to investors.

Twitter will become a private company if Elon Musk’s $44 billion takeover bid is approved. The move would allow Musk to make changes to the site. WSJ’s Dan Gallagher explains Musk’s proposed changes and the challenges he might face enacting them. Illustration: Jordan Kranse

The Twitter move threatens to bring the faltering leveraged-buyout pipeline to a standstill by tying up capital that Wall Street could otherwise use to back new deals.

The $44 billion Twitter takeover is backed by banks including Morgan Stanley,

Bank of America Corp.

and Barclays PLC, which signed agreements in April to provide Mr. Musk with the debt financing he needed to buy the company. They had originally intended to find third-party investors, such as loan asset managers and mutual funds, who would ultimately lend the money as is customary in leveraged buyouts.

But rising interest rates and growing concerns about a recession have cooled investors’ appetite for risky loans and bonds. Mr. Musk’s past criticism of Twitter’s alleged misrepresentation of the condition of its business and the number of fake accounts on the platform aren’t helping either—nor is a deterioration in Twitter’s business, the people added.

Banks would likely face losses of around $500 million or more if they tried to sell Twitter’s debt at current market prices, The Wall Street Journal previously reported. If all the banks hold the debt instead, they can mark it at a higher value on their books on the premise that prices will eventually rebound.

Banks also face a timing problem: Mr. Musk and Twitter have until Oct. 28 to close his planned purchase, and there is still no guarantee the unpredictable billionaire will follow through or some other trouble won’t arise. (If the deal doesn’t close by that time, the two parties will go to court in November.) That means the banks wouldn’t have enough time to market the debt to third-party investors, a process that normally takes weeks, even if they wanted to sell it now.

Assuming the deal closes, banks hope to be able to sell some of Twitter’s debt by early next year, should market conditions improve by then, some of the people said. Twitter’s banks are discussing how to potentially slice up the debt into different pieces that could be easier for hedge-fund investors or direct lenders to swallow, one of these people said.

The banks have good reason to want to hold the debt for as short a time period as possible.

Holding loans and bonds can force them to set more capital aside to meet regulatory requirements, limiting the credit banks are able to provide to others. Banks also face year-end stress tests, and they will want to limit their exposure to risky corporate debts before regulators evaluate the soundness of their balance sheets.

So far this year, banks have already taken hundreds of millions of dollars worth of losses and been forced to hold a growing amount of buyout debt.

Twitter’s debt, including $6.5 billion of term loans and $6 billion of bonds, would add to the increasing pile banks eventually intend to syndicate, recently estimated by

Goldman Sachs

at around $45 billion.

Banks’ third-quarter earnings showed a steep drop-off in revenue tied to deal-making. Goldman’s debt-underwriting revenue dropped to $328 million in the third quarter from $726 million a year earlier.

Morgan Stanley CEO

James Gorman

said recently that his bank has been “quite cautious in the leveraged-finance arena” for new deals, while Bank of America’s

Brian Moynihan

said “there’s been a natural retrenching” in the leveraged-loan market and the bank “was working to get through the pipeline” of existing deals.

Private-equity firms, which rely heavily on debt to fund their buyouts, have increasingly turned to private-credit providers such as Blackstone Credit and

Blue Owl Capital Inc.

These firms don’t have to split up and sell debt and can provide funding from investment vehicles established to do so. Although it is more expensive and harder to come by than earlier this year, private-credit providers have been the main source of buyout financing recently.

To deal with debts they have already committed to, banks have gotten increasingly creative.

In a take-private of Citrix Systems Inc., banks agreed to turn some $6 billion of syndicated term loans into a more traditional bank loan that they chose to keep on their balance sheets, but they sold around $8 billion of bonds and loans at a loss of more than $500 million, the Journal reported. There was also a revision in the financing structure of the Nielsen Holdings PLC take-private, with $3 billion in unsecured bonds becoming a junior secured loan that private-credit provider

Ares Capital Corp.

agreed to lead. The banks held the remainder of Nielsen’s roughly $9 billion of debt on their balance sheets.

Write to Laura Cooper at laura.cooper@wsj.com and Alexander Saeedy at alexander.saeedy@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Jim Cramer recaps 4 major banks’ earnings reports

CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Friday offered investors his thoughts on the major banks that reported earnings this week.

“If the whole market hadn’t already roared yesterday, I think we could’ve had a nice rally in response to these numbers. But, as it is, I’d say this is a surprisingly solid start to earnings season,” he said.

JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and Citigroup reported their latest quarterly results on Friday. Here is Cramer’s take on each of the banks’ latest quarters:

JPMorgan Chase

JPMorgan Chase beat Wall Street expectations for its top and bottom line, aided by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes. Cramer said he was surprised that the bank had a solid quarter since CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the U.S. economy would likely enter a recession in the middle of next year. 

However, Cramer said he still expected the bank to see a boost from rising rates.

“The banks make a fortune when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, because they can take your deposits, which they pay next to nothing for, and then invest them in short-term Treasurys to get a much higher risk-free return,” he explained.

Wells Fargo

The bank beat on earnings and revenue in its latest quarter but saw a cut to its bottom line from its decision to boost its loan loss reserves. 

Cramer said he likes the stock because the company has more interest rate exposure than most of its peers, which makes it attractive during a high-interest rate environment. And while a risk of higher rates is that people could lose their jobs and have to default on their obligations, which would result in a higher percentage of bad loans, Wells Fargo’s strength in its net interest income is more than enough to offset the damage from bad loans, according to Cramer.

“I remain a believer here — management’s executing incredibly well — I think the story only gets better as rates go higher,” he said. “Buy Wells Fargo.”

Morgan Stanley

Cramer said that he believes the market overreacted to Morgan Stanley’s third-quarter earnings and revenue miss. Shares of the bank fell 5%.

While he acknowledged that the quarter was rough, Cramer maintained that he believes the stock is a buy, highlighting the company’s generous dividend and stock buyback.

“I think Morgan Stanley can eventually thrive once the markets even out, but until then, you’ve got to be patient in this one,” he said.

Citigroup

Cramer said that he’d rather own the other banks than Citi, which beat on revenue and earnings in its latest quarter but saw a 25% decline in profits. Shares of the company rose 0.65%.

“We’ve seen Citi rally in response to earnings a number of times. … And then you know what happened? The gains quickly faded, and the stock came right back down,” he said.

Disclaimer: Cramer’s Charitable Trust owns shares of Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo.

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U.S. stocks struggling to make ‘crazy’ bounce-back rally stick as earnings season gets under way

U.S. stocks saw early gains fizzle Friday, with the market turning south after attempting to build on a bounce in the previous session that marked what’s been called one of the craziest market days in history.

Stocks turned lower after a closely watched survey showed consumer inflation expectations were on the rise, while investors were also weighing a round of results from big Wall Street banks as earnings reporting season gets under way.

What’s happening
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.80%
    fell 223 points, or 0.7%, to 29,815, after rising 390 points at its session high.
  • The S&P 500
    SPX,
    -1.67%
    was down 58 points, or 1.6%, at 3,612.
  • The Nasdaq Composite declined 227 points, or 2.1%, to 10,422.

On Thursday, the Dow erased a plunge of nearly 550 points to end 828 points higher, while the S&P 500 bounced back from a loss of more than 2% to end 2.6% higher, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.2%.

The Dow’s 2.8% rise was the largest one-day gain since Nov. 9, 2020.

See: Why stocks scored a historic bounce after another hot inflation report

What’s driving markets

Gains early Friday gave way to losses after the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey showed expectations for inflation over the next year rose to 5.1% from September’s one-year low of 4.7%, while expectations for inflation over the next 5 years ticked up to 2.9% from 2.7% last month.

“The uptick in inflation expectations probably is a response to the increase in gas prices in recent weeks, in which case it won’t continue,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a note, observing that preliminary readings tend to see big revisions.

“Still, on the heels of the September inflation data this rebound — reversing the drop last month — does not look good, given how closely policy makers appear to track the measure,” Shepherdson said.

The survey’s gauge of consumer sentiment rose to 59.8 in October from 58.6. Economists were expecting a reading of 59, according to a Wall Street Journal poll.

Data Friday also showed U.S. retail sales were unchanged in September, coming in below forecasts for a 0.3% rise. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.3%.

Analysts cited a number of factors to explain the huge rise in stocks on Thursday, which came after equities initially tanked following a hotter-than-expected September consumer-price index reading.

Factors behind the bounce included technical and positioning considerations after a steep selloff that had seen the S&P 500 index tumble for six sessions in a row to end Wednesday at its lowest since November 2020.

“Among the most frequent explanations is that the most pessimistic of all possible scenarios were built into prices: a 75-point rate hike at the next two meetings,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, in a note. “After this, market participants turned their attention to substantial discounts to prices from their highs with a relatively healthy economy that continues to create jobs and raise wages,”

But caution still prevailed on Friday.

“Despite October’s notoriety as a ‘bear market killer’ and an auspicious intraday move, investors should maintain a certain degree of caution. A real change in trend requires a shift in fundamentals. And those changes are still not easy to identify,” Kuptsikevich said.

Rick Rieder, the chief investment officer for fixed income at BlackRock, told MarketWatch’s Christine Idzelis that Thursday’s gyrations marked one of the “craziest” days in market history, coming after data showing U.S. September inflation running at a hotter-than-expected pace.

“One of the largest intraday reversals in recent memory off a closely watched CPI print underscores the oversold condition and sentiment extreme in this market. The vulnerability wasn’t in the number, the vulnerability was in the positioning leading up to the number,” said Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, in a Friday note.

BlackRock’s Rieder advised investors to consider parking their money in short-term bonds, a point recently echoed by hedge-fund legend Ray Dalio.

Shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM,
+3.39%
were up 2.7% after the bank and Dow component beat Wall Street targets for earnings and revenue.

Analysts were also weighing results from Wells Fargo & Co.
WFC,
+3.52%
and Morgan Stanley
MS,
-4.25%,
and Citigroup Inc.
C,
+1.43%.

See: JPMorgan profit falls but beats estimates while Wells Fargo misses

Investors were also monitoring developments in the U.K., where Prime Minister Liz Truss fired Kwasi Kwarteng from his role as chancellor of the exchequer. Yields on U.K. government bonds spiked after Kwarteng presented a budget plan that included large tax cuts in late September, sparking a crisis that required the Bank of England to step in with an emergency buying program.

Read: Why Kwasi Kwarteng could not survive the battle with the Bank of England

U.K. bond yields initially dropped on Friday on indications many of the planned tax cuts would be reversed. But they later rose after Truss only reversed corporate tax cuts.

Also see: Larry Summers says U.K. debt market stress could be the ‘tremor’ signaling global economic ‘earthquake’

The Federal Reserve needs to continue raising interest rates but should be careful about the pace of these moves, Kansas City Fed President Esther George said on Friday.

Companies in focus
  • Wells Fargo
    WFC,
    +3.52%
    shares rose 3.8% after the bank posted stronger-than-expected revenue for the third quarter, offsetting a profit miss.
  • Shares of Morgan Stanley
    MS,
    -4.25%
    fell 4.5% after the investment bank missed Wall Street’s targets for earnings and revenue amid a drop in deal activity.
  • Citigroup
    C,
    +1.43%
    shares rose 1.9% after the bank topped Wall Street forecasts on earnings and revenue.
  • UnitedHealth Group Inc.
    UNH,
    +1.77%
    shares were up 1.6% after the Dow component and health insurer reported third-quarter profit and revenue that rose above expectations, and lifted its full-year outlook for a third-straight quarter.
  • Kroger Co.
    KR,
    -5.04%
    announced a $24.6 billion deal to buy Albertsons Cos. Inc.
    ACI,
    -7.39%.
    Under the terms of the merger agreement, Kroger will acquire all of the shares outstanding of Albertsons’ common and preferred stock for an estimated $34.10 per share. Kroger shares fell 4.9%, while Albertsons was off 7%. Shares of Albertsons jumped more than 11% Thursday on reports of a potential deal, while Kroger rose 2%.
  • Beyond Meat Inc.
    BYND,
    -6.02%
    shares fell 6.2% after the plant-based food company issued a revenue warning, announced a plan to cut about 200 workers and said it’s cutting other costs as it makes a strategic shift aimed at achieving positive cash flow operations.

Also see: Beyond Meat COO Douglas W. Ramsey is leaving the company after being suspended for allegedly biting a man’s nose

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Wall Street is bullish on tech again, naming stocks to buy

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Dow futures fall 170 points to start week with key inflation data, earnings ahead

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Getty Images

Stock futures are lower Sunday night as the markets come out of a tumultuous week and traders look ahead to key reports coming in the next week that can offer insights into the health of the economy.

Futures connected to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.6% to 29,175 points. S&P 500 futures dropped 0.7% to 3,626.25 points, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.8% to 11,014.25 points.

Market observers generally consider the week ahead as the kickoff to earnings season, with four of the world’s largest banks – JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Citi – reporting Friday. PepsiCo, Delta and Domino’s are also among companies reporting next week.

Inflation will also take center stage as new monthly Consumer Price Index data comes Thursday morning.

It will follow a week of whiplash for market participants. The first half brought a relief rally that pushed the S&P 500 up more than 5% in its largest two-day gain since 2020.

But jobs data that economists say will keep the Federal Reserve on a path to continue raising interest rates and OPEC+’s decision to slash oil supply rattled investors, diluting wins later in the week. When day trading ended Friday, the S&P was up 1.5% compared to where it started the week. The Dow and Nasdaq were up 1.5% and 0.7%, respectively.

Still, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq had the first positive week in the last four. All remain down substantially so far in 2022, however, and the Nasdaq is less than 1% away from its 52-week low.

Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points, closing at 4.316%. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.

“The direction of the stock market is likely to be lower because either the economy and corporate profits are going to slow meaningfully or the Fed is going to have to raise rates even higher and keep them higher for longer,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, on Friday.

“Given the conditions that we are operating under, we believe it’s prudent to begin preparing for a recession,” he added. “The talk of a shallow recession that is now the narrative-du-jour strikes us as eerily similar to the ‘inflation is transitory’ narrative of last year.”

Last week brought heightened concerns that corporate earnings will show the ugly side of a surging dollar as Levi Strauss became the latest to cut guidance due to sliding international sales.

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Don’t ‘be a hero’ while the Fed battles inflation

CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Friday warned investors against adding to their portfolios until the stock market and economy become less volatile.

“This economy is a runaway train; it’s smashed through the Fed’s blockades today, so now they may just blow up the tracks to derail the whole darn thing. When they detonate, it’ll be safe to buy. Until then, I am urging you not to be a hero,” he said.

Cramer warned that he expects central bank officials to stick to their hawkish stance on inflation, adding that the producer price index and consumer price index due next week could shed more light on the state of inflation and the Fed’s next moves.

Stocks tumbled on Friday after the September jobs report signaled that the job market is strengthening despite the central bank’s aggressive interest rate increases.

“There’s always the possibility that this is the last red-hot employment number, in which case the Fed’s tightening into an abyss and the damage could be catastrophic,” he said.

Cramer also previewed next week’s slate of earnings. All earnings and revenue estimates are courtesy of FactSet.

Wednesday: PepsiCo

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 6 a.m. ET; conference call at 8:15 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $1.84
  • Projected revenue: $20.81 billion

Cramer said he’s hoping the company will report that its raw costs are coming down.

Thursday: Delta Airlines, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Domino’s Pizza, BlackRock

Delta Air Lines

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 6:30 a.m. ET; conference call at 10 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $1.55
  • Projected revenue: $12.90 billion

The company is likely concerned about rising oil prices, Cramer predicted.

Walgreens Boots Alliance

  • Q4 2022 earnings release at 7 a.m. ET; conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: 77 cents
  • Projected revenue: $32.09 billion

Domino’s Pizza

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 7:30 a.m. ET; conference call at 10 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $2.98
  • Projected revenue: $1.07 billion

He said that he believes both Walgreens and Domino’s are dealing with worker shortages.

BlackRock

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 6:15 a.m. ET; conference call at 8:30 a.m ET
  • Projected EPS: $7.64
  • Projected revenue: $4.3 billion

Cramer said he’s betting the company will report great results and that he’d be a buyer of the stock.

Friday: JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UnitedHealth Group

JPMorgan Chase 

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 7 a.m. ET; conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $2.92
  • Projected revenue: $32.13 billion

Wells Fargo 

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 7 a.m. ET; conference call at 10 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $1.10
  • Projected revenue: $18.76 billion

Morgan Stanley 

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 7:30 a.m. ET; conference call at 9:30 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $1.52
  • Projected revenue: $13.24 billion

“With employment still red-hot, it’s entirely possible the banks can make a killing here without much risk of bad loans,” Cramer said.

UnitedHealth Group

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 5:55 a.m. ET; conference call at 8:45 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $5.43
  • Projected revenue: $80.52 billion

While he has faith the quarter will be solid, he expects the stock to decline if the company’s results are short of being perfect.

Disclaimer: Cramer’s Charitable Trust owns shares of Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo.

Jim Cramer’s Guide to Investing

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Elon Musk’s Revived Twitter Deal Could Saddle Banks With Big Losses

Banks that agreed to fund

Elon Musk’s

takeover of

Twitter Inc.

TWTR -3.72%

are facing the possibility of big losses now that the billionaire has shifted course and indicated a willingness to follow through with the deal, in the latest sign of trouble for debt markets that are crucial for funding takeovers.

As is typical in leveraged buyouts, the banks planned to unload the debt rather than hold it on their books, but a decline in markets since April means that if they did so now they would be on the hook for losses that could run into the hundreds of millions, according to people familiar with the matter.

Banks are presently looking at an estimated $500 million in losses if they tried to unload all the debt to third-party investors, according to 9fin, a leveraged-finance analytics firm.

Representatives of Mr. Musk and Twitter had been trying to hash out terms of a settlement that would enable the stalled deal to proceed, grappling with issues including whether it would be contingent on Mr. Musk receiving the necessary debt financing, as he is now requesting. On Thursday, a judge put an impending trial over the deal on hold, effectively ending those talks and giving Mr. Musk until Oct. 28 to close the transaction.

The debt package includes $6.5 billion in term loans, a $500 million revolving line of credit, $3 billion in secured bonds and $3 billion in unsecured bonds, according to public disclosures. To pay for the deal, Mr. Musk also needs to come up with roughly $34 billion in equity. To help with that, he received commitment letters in May for over $7 billion in financing from 19 investors including

Oracle Corp.

co-founder and

Tesla Inc.

then-board member

Larry Ellison

and venture firm Sequoia Capital Fund LP.

Twitter will become a private company if Elon Musk’s $44 billion takeover bid is approved. The move would allow Musk to make changes to the site. WSJ’s Dan Gallagher explains Musk’s proposed changes and the challenges he might face enacting them. Illustration: Jordan Kranse

The Twitter debt would be the latest to hit the market while high-yield credit is effectively unavailable to many borrowers, as buyers of corporate debt are demanding better terms and bargain prices over concerns about an economic slowdown.

That has dealt a significant blow to a business that represents an important source of revenue for Wall Street banks and has already suffered more than $1 billion in collective losses this year.

The biggest chunk of that came last month, when banks including Bank of America,

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

and

Credit Suisse Group AG

sold debt associated with the $16.5 billion leveraged buyout of Citrix Systems Inc. Banks collectively lost more than $500 million on the purchase, the Journal reported.

Banks had to buy around $6 billion of Citrix’s debt themselves after it became clear that investors’ interest in the total debt package was muted.

“The recent Citrix deal suggests the market would struggle to digest the billions of loans and bonds contemplated by the original Twitter financing plan,” said Steven Hunter, chief executive at 9fin.

People familiar with Twitter’s debt-financing package said the banks built “flex” into the deal, which can help them reduce their losses. It enables them to raise the interest rates on the debt, meaning the company would be on the hook for higher interest costs, to try to attract more investors to buy it.

However, that flex is usually capped, and if investors still aren’t interested in the debt at higher interest rates, banks could eventually have to sell at a discount and absorb losses, or choose to hold the borrowings on their books.

Elon Musk has offered to close his acquisition of Twitter on the terms he originally agreed to.



Photo:

Mike Blake/REUTERS

The leveraged loans and bonds for Twitter are part of $46 billion of debt still waiting to be split up and sold by banks for buyout deals, according to Goldman data. That includes debt associated with deals including the roughly $16 billion purchase of

Nielsen Holdings

PLC, the $7 billion acquisition of automotive-products company

Tenneco

and the $8.6 billion takeover of media company

Tegna Inc.

Private-equity firms rely on leveraged loans and high-yield bonds to help pay for their largest deals. Banks generally parcel out leveraged loans to institutional investors such as mutual funds and collateralized-loan-obligation managers.

When banks can’t sell debt, that usually winds up costing them even if they choose not to sell at a loss. Holding loans and bonds can force them to add more regulatory capital to protect their balance sheets and limit the credit banks are willing to provide to others.

In past downturns, losses from leveraged finance have led to layoffs, and banks took years to rebuild their high-yield departments. Leveraged-loan and high-yield-bond volumes plummeted after the 2008 financial crisis as banks weren’t willing to add on more risk.

Indeed, many of Wall Street’s major banks are expected to trim the ranks of their leveraged-finance groups in the coming months, according to people familiar with the matter.

Still, experts say that banks look much better positioned to weather a downturn now, thanks to postcrisis regulations requiring more capital on balance sheets and better liquidity.

“Overall, the level of risk within the banking system now is just not the same as it was pre-financial crisis,” said Greg Hertrich, head of U.S. depository strategy at Nomura.

Last year was a banner year for private-equity deal making, with some $146 billion of loans issued for buyouts—the most since 2007.

However, continued losses from deals such as Citrix and potentially Twitter may continue to cool bank lending for M&A, as well as for companies that have low credit ratings in general.

“There’s going to be a period of risk aversion as the industry thinks through what are acceptable terms for new deals,” said Richard Ramsden, an analyst at Goldman covering the banking industry. “Until there’s clarity over that, there won’t be many new debt commitments.”

Write to Alexander Saeedy at alexander.saeedy@wsj.com, Laura Cooper at laura.cooper@wsj.com and Ben Dummett at ben.dummett@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Cruel winter ahead for Wall Street as pandemic debts come due

A banker recently told me that CEOs “would have to do something pretty special to fall into bankruptcy” the last couple of years as government pumped massive liquidity into the market, on top of the pandemic handouts.

That’s now changing, possibly quickly, with the Fed raising interest rates and reducing the size of its balance sheet.

A cruel winter is likely for Wall Street as markets remain choppy and their biggest clients scale back. Traditional deal-making such as IPOs has dropped significantly. At every major investment house, management is quietly planning layoffs (and some, like Goldman Sachs, not so quietly).

One area of potential growth: Wall Street restructuring departments. They’re eyeing expansion to provide advice to companies so burdened by high debt load they need to sell stuff or “restructure” in Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Recession looms

Sources tell me investment banking firm Morgan Stanley is weighing a big expansion of its restructuring team (Morgan Stanley wouldn’t deny the matter). Other banks are likely to follow because none of this is really rocket science.

Morgan Stanley CEO and Chairman James Gorman is reportedly weighing a big expansion of its restructuring team.
AP

If you think the Fed needs to raise rates by a lot (which, given the latest inflation number, it does) the economy will suffer. Recession looms. The likelihood is that some segments of corporate America loaded up on cheap debt and will need help avoiding bankruptcy — or navigating a way out of it. That becomes a big business for Wall Street.

The unwinding of the credit cycle to tighter lending standards is always pretty tough on corporate balance sheets, but it could be particularly brutal this time given the monetary policy experiment — and corporate debt binge — of the past two-plus years, bankers tell me.

Since the pandemic, even the most troubled companies had access to credit. So-called leveraged deal-making exploded. M&A often leaned heavily on borrowing because the Fed provided so much easy money the banks were virtually giving loans away.

What goes up ultimately comes down on Wall Street. The easy money of the early 2000s paved the way for the financial crisis of 2007-2008 with mortgage debt at the center of the deleveraging.

The easy money of the pandemic economy has led to similar risk-taking among companies and investors. An unwind is guaranteed even if it is still unclear if it will reach such cataclysmic levels.

In previous years, the government pumped massive liquidity into the market.
Getty Images

Consider the $1.4 trillion-plus leveraged loan market, which comprises borrowings of the most indebted companies. Such debt has doubled in just seven years. More troubling, the biggest share of the market compromises loans to the riskiest credits. “Junk” credits now make up more than 28% of such loans, according to the data trackers at Morningstar.

You see where I’m going with this: As rates continue to spike, these borrowers will find it more difficult — maybe impossible — to refinance debt. Profit margins (if the companies are profitable) get squeezed as the economy slows. This Gordian knot translates into lower stock prices, layoffs, etc. Companies shed assets, and file for Chapter 11. Bondholders will be owners of chunks of corporate America because they have first lien on deteriorating assets, which means losses for major money managers and pensions.

In the middle of this mess will be the restructuring departments of the big banks dispensing advice and earning fees for their time.

The good news

Some caveats to the doom-and-gloom scenario. Restructurings are beginning to pick up (See Revlon and Bad Bath & Beyond) but they’re not dominating the headlines because default rates remain low. The St. Louis Fed’s index of all commercial bank loan delinquencies are well off the highs reached just after the banking crisis.

But bankers say the trouble looms when loan terms reach their end stages and so-called balloon principal payments come due. Those big numbers begin next year when more than $200 billion in leveraged loans will need refinancing, and will rise yearly by multiples until around $1 trillion is due in 2028, a banker tells me.

That’s a lot of debt to refinance in the face of tighter credit conditions. It’s a recipe for recession, but also for money to be made by Wall Street restructuring shops.

Inflation spiral

As bad as inflation is, there’s a good chance it’s going to get a lot worse. A serious nightmare scenario is starting to circulate among top Wall Street investors.

It began with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s grim assessment, explained in this column last week, that the Biden administration stoked significant inflation through reckless spending. It’s now nearly impossible for the Fed to engineer a “soft landing” of the economy with inflation at 8.3%.

Yet it could get worse. Global droughts and the continued war in Ukraine translate into declining crop yields and higher food prices. Gas prices might be coming down, but the administration appears intent on keeping them high by canceling drilling permits. As workers demand higher wages (and railroad workers got one last week by threatening a strike) Fed Chair Jerome Powell cranks up interest rates until the economy lands in a crash.

Dark stuff that some experts dispute, many of the same geniuses who said inflation was “transitory.” 

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Figma investors score historic coup with Adobe deal in down year

Adobe is paying 2021 prices. It’s 2022.

Wall Street hates it. Silicon Valley is thrilled.

In a year that’s featured exactly zero high-profile tech IPOs and far more headlines about mass layoffs than big funding rounds, Adobe’s $20 billion acquisition of Figma on Thursday is what some might call a narrative violation. There was no other bidder out there driving up the price, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because the details are confidential.

Figma’s cloud-based designed software has been a growing headache for Adobe over the last few years. It’s cheaper (there’s even a free tier), easier to use, collaborative and modern, and has been spreading like wildfire among designers at companies big and small. Annualized recurring revenue is poised to more than double for a second straight year, surpassing $400 million in 2022.

“This was a significant threat to Adobe,” Lo Toney, founding managing partner of Plexo Capital, which invests in start-ups and venture funds, told CNBC’s “TechCheck” on Thursday. “This was very much both a defensive move but also an eye towards this trend where design rules and design matters.”

That’s why Adobe is paying roughly 50 times revenue following a stretch this year that saw investors dump stocks that were commanding sky-high multiples. For the top cloud companies in the BVP Nasdaq Emerging Cloud Index, forward multiples have fallen to just over 9 times revenue from about 25 in February 2021.

Snowflake, Atlassian and Cloudflare, the three cloud stocks with the highest revenue multiples, have plumetted 41%, 33% and 51% this year, respectively.

After the announcement on Thursday, Adobe shares sank more than 17% and headed for their worst day since 2010. The company said in a slide presentation that the deal isn’t expected to add to adjusted earnings until “the end of year three.”

Figma last raised private capital at a $10 billion valuation in June 2021, the peak of software mania. The company had benefitted from the work-from-home movement during the pandemic, as more designers needed tools that could help them collaborate while separated from their colleagues.

But now, even with more offices reopening, the hybrid trend has done nothing to take Figma off course, while other pandemic-friendly products like Zoom and DocuSign have slowed dramatically.

Given the plunge in cloud stocks, late-stage companies have steered cleared of the IPO market — and private financings in a lot of cases — to avoid taking a haircut on their lofty valuations. Tomasz Tunguz of Redpoint Ventures wrote in a blog post on Thursday that prior to this deal, “U.S. venture-backed software M&A was tracking to its worst year since 2017.”

In such an environment, Figma’s ability to exit at double its price from 15 months ago is a coup for early investors.

The three venture firms that led Figma’s earliest rounds — Index Ventures, Greylock Partners and Kleiner Perkins — all own percentage stakes in the double-digits, people familiar with the matter said. That means they’ll each return over $1 billion. Investors in the 2021 round doubled their money. They include Durable Capital Partners and Morgan Stanley’s Counterpoint.

While those sorts of numbers were routinely recorded during the record IPO years of 2020 and 2021, they’re foreign this year, as investors reckon with surging inflation, rising interest rates and geopolitical unrest.

Too young to drink

Danny Rimer, a partner at Index Ventures and Figma board member, said the company was in position to get ready for an IPO and was in no hurry to tap the capital markets, either private or public.

“We had raised a lot of money at very good valuations and didn’t need to raise any more money,” said Rimer, whose firm first invested in Figma in 2013. “The company was IPO-able. This really was more a question of what is the best way to achieve the goal of company, which is to democratize tools for design and creation across the globe.”

Dylan Field, co-founder and chief executive officer of Figma Inc., in San Francisco, California, U.S., on Thursday, June 24, 2021.

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Rimer said Figma has gone through quite a journey since he first met founder and CEO Dylan Field, who had dropped out of college to start the company as part of the Thiel Fellowship program, in which the tech billionaire Peter Thiel offered promising entrepreneurs $100,000 grants. When they met, Field was only 19.

“I took him to dinner and couldn’t buy him a drink,” Rimer said.

For Adobe, Figma marks the company’s biggest acquisition in its 40-year history by a wide margin. Its largest prior deal came in 2018, when Adobe acquired marketing software vendor Marketo for $4.75 billion. Before that, the biggest was Macromedia for $3.4 billion in 2005.

Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen explained his company’s rationale on CNBC, as his company’s stock ticker on the screen flashed bright red.

“Figma is actually one of these rare companies that has achieved incredible escape velocity,” said Narayen, Adobe’s CEO since 2007. “They have a fabulous product that appeals to millions of people, they have escape velocity as it relates to their financial performance and a profitable company, which is very rare, as you know, in software-as-a-service companies.”

Adobe needs the growth and new user base from Figma to maintain its dominant position in design. For investors, Narayen can only ask them to play the long game.

“It is going to be a great value for their shareholders,” Narayen said regarding Figma, “as well as Adobe’s shareholders.”

CNBC’s Jordan Novet contributed to this report

WATCH: CNBC’s interview with Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen

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Goldman Sachs yanks ‘free coffee’ perk as bankers return to five-day week

It’s time for Goldman Sachs bankers to wake up and smell the coffee — and pay for it, too.

As employees filed into the Wall Street giant’s headquarters in lower Manhattan last Tuesday for a mandatory return to a five-day work week, they got an unwelcome surprise: The “free coffee” station had been wheeled away, sources told The Post.

The complimentary “grab and go” station at the entrance of 200 West St. — cold-brew, as well as stashes of French vanilla creamer, almond milk, soy milk and half-and-half — had appeared during the pandemic to encourage attendance, according to insiders.

But the brass has since determined it doesn’t need sweeteners to get people back to the office, sources told The Post. Instead, management now believes the threat of getting fired should more than enough incentive, the sources said.

“RIP to another pandemic perk for junior bankers,” one junior Goldman banker lamented. “I’m sure the partners still don’t have to pay for their coffee — or anything in their fancy dining hall.”

“Of course they took the coffee away,” another junior banker added. “But I’ve been so slammed since Labor Day I haven’t really had time to think too much about it.”

Natural gas prices are displayed in front of Morgan Stanley in the Times Square neighborhood of New York.
Bloomberg via Getty Images

As for coffee, a source close to the bank notes there is still free drip coffee elsewhere in the building, including at the building’s “Sky Lobby” on the 11th floor. The source added the bank also provided cupcakes to employees on their first day back. Still, junior employees counter that it’s a hassle to get to and doesn’t have the same quality of cold brew.

At other banks on Wall Street, executives and CEOs are embracing the return to normalcy — and the disappearance of perks that many had long taken for granted.

At Goldman as well as rivals JPMorgan an Morgan Stanley, bankers at all levels are lamenting the loss of free tickets to the US Open tennis championship in Forest Hills, Queens. Before the pandemic, the big banks typically made extra tickets available to top performers. But this year, the only way to nab a seat is to bring a client, sources add.

Spokespeople at JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley declined to comment on the US Open perks.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, for his part, has grown increasingly aggressive with a clampdown on remote work, privately telling senior managers he expects the rank and file to be at the office five days a week — a more stringent standard than the bank’s official line of three days a week, according to sources close to the company.

But it’s Goldman CEO David Solomon — who famously called working from home an “aberration” — who has signaled the return to office with particular force. As first reported by The Post, Goldman told workers in a memo last month it planned to lift all COVID protocols a week after Labor Day — a sign it won’t accept excuses for employees to work from home.

In April, Solomon ended free daily car rides to and from the office, which the bank had begun offering at the start of the COVID outbreak, The Post was first to report. It now limits the perk to employees who work well into the evening, sources said.

Workers at Goldman Sachs filed into 200 West Street last week.
Bloomberg via Getty Images

This spring, Goldman likewise announced that employees will once again be on the hook for the cost of breakfast and lunch.Goldman did hike its meal allowance for dinner to $30 from $25 — two months after The Post reported staff were griping they couldn’t even buy a Chipotle dinner with the stingy stipend.

For some employees, however, part of Goldman’s allure is the prestige of working long hours in addition to getting face time with the boss.

“There’s a pride that comes with working crazy hours — and Goldman thinks the best will want what Solomon is demanding,” John Breault, CEO of recruiting firm Breault & Smith told The Post.

Other banks have taken a more relaxed approach to returning to the office. Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser — who famously banned Zoom meetings on Fridays in response to employee fatigue — has refrained from requiring a five-day work week although the bank asked most employees to return at least a few days a week in March.

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan, meanwhile, has said he will give more guidance about returning to the office in the next six to eight weeks — and will outline “more formality to the flexibility.”

Not all of the rank and file are convinced.

“Citibank and Bank of America are the lame banks,” one 20-something Wall Street banker who works at a boutique firm told The Post, adding he’d never take a job there.

Still, some of the young bankers who have landed prize gigs at Goldman and JPMorgan say they wish they had more flexibility.

“I’d prefer not to be in the office five days a week,” one junior banker conceded.

“I don’t think anyone wants to be in the office five days a week,” a former Goldman employee, who left to find a more flexible role, told The Post.

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