Tag Archives: Money/Currency Markets

Central banks must buy bitcoin to hedge against sanctions: Harvard Ph.D. candidate

A research paper published at Harvard University is advocating that central banks should buy bitcoin
BTCUSD,
+2.41%
as a hedge against sanctions by other countries.

The paper, titled “Hedging Sanctions Risk: Cryptocurrency in Central Bank Reserves,” was authored by Ph.D. candidate Matthew Ferranti from Harvard’s economics department, and likens central banks’ gold reserves to potential bitcoin holdings.

Ferranti points out that central banks in countries across the globe should look into holding bitcoin as a hedge against possible financial sanctions. He gives the example of the unprecedented financial sanctions levied against Russia by the U.S. and many western nations following its invasion of Ukraine — billions in Russian assets were frozen after the Ukraine war began.

“Sanctions risk may diminish the appeal of U.S. Treasuries, propel broader diversification in central bank reserves, and bolster the long-run fundamental value of both cryptocurrency and gold,” Ferranti writes.

In the paper, Ferranti says El Salvador is a model for central banks owning bitcoin. The country, headed by bitcoin bull Nayib Bukele, has purchased millions of dollars worth of the crypto and has even made bitcoin an official national currency.

See also: ‘We just bought the dip’: El Salvador expands bitcoin holdings

Since the inception of popular cryptos like bitcoin and ether
ETHUSD,
+3.74%,
part of its appeal has been the lack of involvement from central banks, in favor of the decentralized nature of the digital asset.

In the wake of the recent crypto winter and collapse of popular crypto exchange FTX, as well as financial issues for crypto companies Voyager and Celsius, some crypto bulls have called for increased regulation and transparency for the industry.

The paper comes after FTX struggled with liquidity issues in November, eventually leading to a bankruptcy filing. Sam Bankman-Fried resigned as CEO and later apologized for the collapse of his former company.

See: Why do people invest in crypto? ‘It’s partly fraud and partly delusion,’ says Charlie Munger.

Also see: Tom Brady, Steph Curry and Kevin O’Leary set to lose big from FTX bankruptcy filing

Bitcoin’s price is down over 70% over the past year, and the price for ether is also down over 70% over the same period. The total market cap for all crypto nearly hit $3 trillion during parts of 2021, but is now around $800 billion.

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Fed’s Waller says market has overreacted to consumer inflation data: ‘We’ve got a long, long way to go’

Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said Sunday that financial markets seem to have overreacted to the softer-than-expected October consumer price inflation data last week.

“It was just one data point,” Waller said, in a conversation in Sydney, Australia, sponsored by UBS.

“The market seems to have gotten way out in front over this one CPI report. Everybody should just take a deep breath, calm down. We’ve got a ways to go ” Waller said.

Investors cheered the soft CPI print, released Thursday, driving stocks up to their best week since June. The S&P 500 index
SPX,
+0.92%
closed 5.9% higher for the week.

The data showed that the yearly rate of consumer inflation fell to 7.7% from 8.2%, marking the lowest level since January. Inflation had peaked at a nearly 41-year high of 9.1% in June.

Waller said it was good there was some evidence that inflation was coming down, but noted that there were other times over the past year where it looked like inflation was turning lower.

“We’re going to see a continued run of this kind of behavior and inflation slowly starting to come down, before we really start thinking about taking our foot off the brakes here,” Waller said.

“We’ve got a long, long way to go to get inflation down. Rates are going keep going up and they are going to stay high for awhile until we see this inflation get down closer to our target,” he added.

The Fed is focused on how high rates need to get to bring inflation down, and that will depend solely on inflation, he said.

Waller said “the worst thing” the Fed could do was stop raising rates only to have inflation explode.

The 7.7% inflation rate seen in October “is enormous,” he added.

The Fed signaled at its last meeting earlier this month that it might slow down the pace of its rate hikes in coming meetings.

The central bank has boosted rates by almost 400 basis points since March, including four straight 0.75-percentage-point hikes that had been almost unheard of prior to this year.

“We’re looking at moving in paces of potentially 50 [basis points] at the next meeting or the next meeting after that,” Waller said.

The Fed will hold its next meeting on Dec. 13-14, and then again on Jan. 31-Feb. 1.

At the same time, Powell said the Fed was likely to raise rates above the 4.5%-4.75% terminal rate that they had previously expected.

“The signal was ‘quit paying attention to the pace and start paying attention to where the endpoint is going to be,’” Waller said.

In the wake of the CPI report, investors who trade fed funds futures contracts see the Fed’s terminal rate at 5%-5.25% next spring and then quickly falling back to 4.25%-4.5% by November. That’s well below the levels prior to the CPI data.

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Crypto.com Withdrawals Rise After CEO Admits Transaction Problem

Customers pulled funds from Crypto.com over the weekend after the company’s chief executive said the cryptocurrency exchange mishandled a roughly $400 million transaction. 

Crypto.com Chief Executive

Kris Marszalek

said on Twitter that the transfer was sent to the wrong type of account on another exchange. The transfer of a large chunk of ether, a popular cryptocurrency, took place on Oct. 21, but came to light after Twitter users flagged the transfer as unusual, based on publicly available blockchain transaction records.

Concerns about Singapore-based Crypto.com spread across the internet over the weekend, with prominent digital-currency figures taking aim at the company. Cryptocurrency traders are on edge following the quick collapse of FTX, which went from one of the most trusted exchanges to bankrupt in the course of a week.

Changpeng Zhao,

chief executive at Crypto.com’s larger peer Binance, appeared to question the nature of the transfers without naming the company, which may have fueled Sunday’s withdrawals, according to crypto industry players. “If an exchange [has] to move large amounts of crypto before or after they demonstrate their wallet addresses, it is a clear sign of problems,” Mr. Zhao tweeted Sunday. 

The value of Crypto.com’s own cryptocurrency sank roughly 20% Sunday from the prior 24 hours. It traded near 6 cents apiece. 

Mr. Marszalek dismissed the concerns about Crypto.com, tweeting later on Sunday that the October transfers had “generated so much [fear, uncertainty and doubt] & speculation on Twitter” weeks later.

A spokesman for Crypto.com said that the platform was seeing higher levels of activity, noting that it had assets fully matching customer deposits. “Fluctuations in deposit and withdrawal activity does not affect our levels of service,” he added.

An outside analysis of Crypto.com’s public blockchain from Argus Inc., a blockchain analysis firm, showed that between 7 p.m. EST Saturday and 5:30 a.m. EST Sunday, users withdrew a net $14 million worth of the cryptocurrency ether and $39 million worth of other tokens tied to the Ethereum network from Crypto.com. Over that same time, Crypto.com moved $33 million from other wallets to meet customer demands, according to Argus.

It appeared that Crypto.com had enough funds to meet user withdrawals, said Owen Rapaport, co-founder of Argus.

Crypto.com is a midsize exchange. It has tried to raise its profile over the past year among retail investors. In late 2021, it sponsored the arena that is home to LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers, renaming it the Crypto.com Arena from the Staples Center. It also ran its first Super Bowl ad this year and is a global partner of Formula One.

The transaction that sparked concerns about Crypto.com involved the transfer of 320,000 ether—or roughly $400 million worth of the token at the time—to a wallet linked to crypto exchange Gate.io on Oct. 21. 

Over the weekend, Mr. Marszalek said on Twitter that the transfer was supposed to be a “move to a new cold storage address,” but was sent to an external exchange address.

“We have since strengthened our process and systems to better manage these internal transfers,” he said on Twitter. 

A cold storage address is a type of wallet that is unplugged from the internet. It is considered the safest way to prevent digital currencies from being stolen or hacked. 

Mr. Marszalek said the company had worked with Gate.io to return the funds back to its cold storage. 

“It’s not looking good for these guys in general,” tweeted Adam Cochran, founder of venture-capital firm Cinneamhain Ventures, which invests in blockchain-related companies. 

After FTX’s troubles began last week, a number of cryptocurrency exchanges, including Crypto.com, promised to publish proof of their reserves in the spirit of transparency. The audited proofs allow users to check that their own assets are covered by an exchange’s reserves.

Write to Caitlin Ostroff at caitlin.ostroff@wsj.com and Elaine Yu at elaine.yu@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8



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FTX bankruptcy is ‘somebody running a company that’s just dumb-as-f___ing greedy,’ says Mark Cuban

Billionaire Dallas Maverick’s owner Mark Cuban recently offered his perspective on the implosion of crypto platform FTX late this week.

‘That’s somebody running a company that’s just dumb-as-fucking greedy.’


— Mark Cuban

Cuban, speaking on Friday at a conference in Washington, D.C. hosted by Sports Business Journal, shared the view that avarice was at the root of the downfall of one-time crypto darling Sam Bankman-Fried, whose firm FTX Group just filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy.

“So what does Sam Bankman [Fried] do, he’s just–‘gimme more, gimme more, gimme more.’ So I’m gonna borrow money, loan it to an affiliated company and hope and pretend to myself that the FTT tokens that are in there on my balance sheet are gonna to sustain their value.”

Check out: Mark Cuban says buying metaverse real estate is ‘the dumbest shit ever

FTX’s collapse marks a stunning turnabout for a company, which was once valued at $26 billion, and whose founder, Bankman-Fried was viewed by many in the crypto industry as a venerable actor in the Wild West of digital exchanges.

On Thursday, the 30-year-old entrepreneur tweeted: “I f—ked up, and should have done better,” referencing the collapse of his exchange.

Embattled FTX, short billions of dollars, sought bankruptcy protection after the exchange experienced the crypto equivalent of a bank run. FTX, an affiliated hedge fund Alameda Research, and dozens of other related companies also filed a bankruptcy petition in Delaware on Friday morning. Boasting a nearly $16 billion fortune recently, Sam Bankman Fried’s net worth had all but evaporated in the wake of the FTX implosion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

The price of FTX’s native token FTT went down about 88.8% over the past seven days to around $2.74, according to CoinMarketCap data.

The U.S. Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission are looking into the crypto exchange to determine whether any criminal activity or securities offenses were committed.

Regulators and are examining whether FTX used customer deposits to fund bets at Alameda Research, a no-no in traditional markets, according to reports.

Cuban, who is one of the stars of the investing show “Shark Tank” and owns the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks, is a big investor in crypto and blockchain-related platforms. According to a CNBC report, he has said that 80% of his investments that aren’t on Shark Tank are crypto-centric.

See: Tom Brady, Steph Curry and Kevin O’Leary set to lose big from FTX bankruptcy filing

For his part, Cuban is part of a class-action lawsuit accused of misleading investors into signing up for accounts with crypto platform Voyager Digital, which filed for bankruptcy in July. The suit alleges that Cuban touted his support for Voyager and referred to it “as close to risk-free as you’re gonna get in the crypto universe.”

Cuban mentioned Voyager in his Friday interview. Representatives for the billionaire investor didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Mavericks owner took to Twitter on Saturday to say that the crypto implosions “have been banking blowups. Lending to the wrong entity, misvaluations of collateral, arrogant arbs, followed by depositor runs.”

Cuban’s net worth is $4.6 billion, according to Forbes.



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FTX Files for Bankruptcy, CEO Sam Bankman-Fried Resigns

Beleaguered cryptocurrency platform FTX filed for bankruptcy protection Friday, and Chief Executive

Sam Bankman-Fried

resigned.

FTX and a bevy of affiliates said they had more than 100,000 creditors and tens of billions of dollars in assets and liabilities. It is the largest crypto-related bankruptcy ever, and a demise remarkable for its swiftness as well as its size.

Just a week ago, FTX was an industry titan, and Mr. Bankman-Fried its smiling public face. In January, FTX raised money from Silicon Valley’s most sophisticated investors, at a valuation of $32 billion. A few weeks ago, Mr. Bankman-Fried was publicly musing about raising more, to get even bigger.

That is all gone. The bankruptcy will likely wipe out billions of equity value, leaving investors including Sequoia Capital and Thoma Bravo with stiff losses. It will maroon the crypto and cash deposits belonging to a legion of customers. FTX faces investigations or asset freezes from regulators and prosecutors around the world.

It has also rattled the crypto world. Crypto lender BlockFi, which had obtained a financial lifeline from FTX in July—one of several companies FTX had rescued earlier in the year—paused withdrawals Thursday evening.

Among the affiliates filing for bankruptcy protection is FTX US, a smaller unit that operated in the U.S. Most of FTX’s business was offshore. FTX and its affiliates filed in federal bankruptcy court in Delaware, where the U.S. unit is registered.

Thursday morning, Mr. Bankman-Fried said the troubles at FTX were confined to its international operations. He tweeted that FTX US “was not financially impacted” and that “every user could fully withdraw.” Later that day, FTX US said it might stop trading. On Friday, FTX US filed for bankruptcy along with the rest of FTX.

Bitcoin slipped after the announcement to trade near $16,500.

At issue in the bankruptcy proceedings and the investigations is to determine what happened to the billions that FTX raised, that its customers deposited, and that it earned from operating what appeared—for a time—to be a successful cryptocurrency exchange.

FTX in 2021 also paid $250 million—a quarter of its revenue that year—to a “related party” for software royalties, according to documents viewed by The Wall Street Journal.

Mr. Bankman-Fried wrote on Twitter roughly an hour after the bankruptcy announcement that he was “shocked to see things unravel the way they did earlier this week.”

FTX’s troubles began last weekend, after rival exchange Binance said it would sell its holdings of an FTX equity-like token—spooked by a CoinDesk report showed the depth of the relationship between FTX and Alameda.

John J. Ray

III has been named the new CEO of FTX Group, the company said. The bankruptcy filing includes FTX Trading Ltd., the company presiding over the global trading website FTX.com, and Alameda Research, a trading firm founded by Mr. Bankman-Fried, in addition to FTX US.

Mr. Ray was chairman of Enron Corp.’s successor company, Enron Creditors Recovery Corp., and oversaw the energy-trading company’s liquidation after it filed for bankruptcy in late 2001. The recovery rate for Enron creditors as of 2008 was about 52 cents on the dollar, the company said at the time. Mr. Ray’s successes included securing a $1.7 billion settlement with

Citigroup

in 2008. He had accused the bank of helping Enron mislead investors.

Other noteworthy bankruptcy cases in which Mr. Ray served in similar roles include Nortel Networks Inc., Fruit of the Loom and

Overseas Shipholding Group Inc.

In the petition, Mr. Bankman-Fried said that

Stephen Neal

would be appointed as the chairman of the board of FTX Group if he is willing to serve. He also said that he is being advised by the law firm Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP.

FTX is the latest in a string of crypto companies seeking bankruptcy protection this year.



Photo:

Leon Neal/Getty Images

Bankruptcy means that it could be a long time before retail traders and others owed their funds are able to potentially recover any of them, if ever. Creditors to Mt. Gox, the Japanese crypto exchange that failed following a 2014 hack, are still waiting for their funds almost a decade later.

The collapse in digital-currency prices earlier this year triggered a rash of crypto-related bankruptcy filings, including Celsius Network LLC,

Voyager Digital Ltd.

and Three Arrows Capital.

Crypto investors may be confronted with an uphill battle to get their crypto deposits back in bankruptcy proceedings because their investments are likely to be treated as unsecured claims without collateral rights.

FTX’s bankruptcy also calls into question the fate of Voyager Digital. In September, the firm won the auction to buy the bankrupt lender’s assets with a purchase price of about $50 million, The Wall Street Journal has reported.

Voyager said Friday that the firm has reopened the bidding process for the company and is in active discussions with potential buyers. Voyager said it didn’t transfer any assets to FTX US, which previously submitted a $5 million good-faith deposit as part of the auction process. The funds are held in escrow, according to Voyager.

Voyager also recalled loans from Alameda Research for 6,500 bitcoin and 50,000 ether. The company currently has no loans outstanding with any borrower, it said. However, Voyager had about $3 million worth of cryptocurrencies stuck on FTX at the time of its bankruptcy filing.

contributed to this article.

Write to Caitlin Ostroff at caitlin.ostroff@wsj.com and Alexander Gladstone at alexander.gladstone@wsj.com

Corrections & Amplifications
Sam Bankman-Fried said he is being advised by the law firm Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said FTX was being advised by the law firm. (Corrected on Nov. 11)

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Fed’s Mester says there’s been no progress on inflation, so interest rates need to move higher

With little or no progress made on bringing inflation down, the Federal Reserve needs to continue raising interest rates, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Tuesday.

“At some point, you know, as inflation comes down, them my risk calculation will shift as well and we will want to either slow the rate increases, hold for some time and assess the cumulative impact on what we’ve done,” Mester told reporters after a speech to the Economic Club of New York.

“But at this point, my concerns lie more on – we haven’t seen progress on inflation , we have seen some moderation- but to my mind it means we still have to go a little bit further,” Mester said.

In her speech, the Cleveland Fed president said the central bank needed to be wary of wishful thinking about inflation that would lead the central bank to pause or reverse course prematurely.

“Given current economic conditions and the outlook, in my view, at the point the larger risks come from tightening too little and allowing very high inflation to persist and become embedded in the economy,” Mester said.

She said she thinks inflation will be more persistent than some of her colleagues.

As a result, her preferred path for the Fed’s benchmark rate is slightly higher than the median forecast of the Fed’s “dot-plot,” which points to rates getting to a range of 4.5%-4.75% by next year.

Mester, who is a voting member of the Fed’s interest-rate committee this year, repeated she doesn’t expect any cuts in the Fed’s benchmark rate next year. She stressed that this forecast is based  on her current reading of the economy and she will adjust her views based on the economic and financial information for the outlook and the risks around the outlook.

Opinion: Fed is missing signals from leading inflation indicators

Mester said she doesn’t rely solely on government data on inflation because some of it was backward looking. She said supplements her research with talks with business contacts about their price-setting plans and uses some economic models.

The Fed is also helped by some real-time data, she added.

“I don’t see the signs I’d like to see on the inflation,” she added,

Mester said she didn’t see any “big, pending risks” in terms of financial stability concerns.

“There is no evidence that there is disorderly market functioning going on at present,” she said.

U.S. stocks were mixed on Tuesday afternoon with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+0.12%
up a bit but the S&P 500 in negative territory. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.936%
inched up to 3.9%

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He nailed three big S&P 500 moves this year. Here’s where this strategist sees stocks headed next, with beaten down names to buy.

A Wall Street hat trick may not be on the cards, with stocks in the red for Wednesday.

A two-day rally was never a guaranteed exit out of the bear woods anyway, as some say signs of a durable bottom are still missing.

Enter our call of the day, from the chief market technician at TheoTrade, Jeffrey Bierman, who has made a string of prescient calls on what has been a roller coaster year for the index thus far. He’s also a professor of finance at Loyola University Chicago and DePaul University.

Bierman, who uses quant and fundamental analysis to determine market direction, sees the S&P 500
SPX,
-1.62%
finishing the year between 4,000 and 4,200, maybe around 4,135. “Fourth-quarter seasonality favors bulls following a weak third quarter.  Not to mention most stocks are priced for no growth,” he told MarketWatch in a Monday interview.

In December 2021, he forecast the S&P 500 might see a 20% decline within six months, toward 3,900 — it hit 3,930 in early May. In June, he forecast a rally and recovery to 4,300 — the index hit 4,315 by mid-August.

Speaking to MarketWatch on Aug. 25, Bierman saw a retest of around 3,600 for the index, citing an often rough September for stocks. It closed out last month at a new 2022 low of 3,585.

“I think we’re going to end up for the quarter. [The market is] deeply oversold and some stocks are completely mispriced in terms of their valuation metrics,” said Bierman, who is looking squarely at retail and technology sectors.

“The valuations on half the chip stocks are trading below a multiple of seven. I’ve never seen that ever…but what that means is when the semiconductor sector comes back, the multiple expansion is gonna be like a volcanic eruption to the upside,” he said of the sector known for its boom/bust cycles.

For example, he owns Intel
INTC,
-2.53%,
which hit a five-year low on Friday. Eventually, the company that has invested $20 billion in a new U.S. plant will come roaring back alongside rivals like Advanced Micro
AMD,
-4.65%.
“People will look back on this and go ‘Oh, my God, I can’t believe Intel was at five times earnings,’ which is insanity for this stock.”

For the S&P 500 as a whole next twelve months price/earnings is currently 16.13 times, so Intel’s would be less than half of the broader index, according to FactSet

As for retail, he’s been looking at Urban Outfitters
URBN,
-1.06%,
Macy’s
M,
-1.94%
and Nordstrom
JWN,
-0.67%,
all places where millennials don’t shop, but the middle class does, with the all-important holiday shopping period dead ahead.

“There are 100,000 people being hired to work part time at these companies, and their margins are not coming down at all,” with no markdowns and decent sales, he said, noting those companies are being priced at a multiple of 5 times forward earnings.

“It means that you don’t think that Macy’s can put together for the Christmas quarter a comparative quarter, year over year of greater than 5%? If you don’t then don’t buy it, but I do,” said Bierman. “That’s why I’m willing to stick my neck out and buy these things. I bought Abercrombie & Fitch
ANF,
-3.78%
at 10 times earnings…I’ve never seen it that low.”

For those who aren’t comfortable picking stocks, he says they can still get exposure through exchange-traded funds, such as SPDR S&P Retail
XRT,
-2.58%
or the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
XLK,
-1.70%.

Bierman adds that investors need to be careful not to be overly concentrated in the top stocks, given “10 stocks accounted for 45% of the Nasdaq and the fact that 25% of the S&P almost accounted for about 50% of the S&P movement.”

“Everbody’s concentrated in 10 stocks that can still fall another 30% or 40%, like Apple and Microsoft. The idea of concentration risk is that everybody owns Apple, everybody owns Amazon,” he said.

And that could force the hand of passive and active managers heavily invested in those big names, driving a 10% drop for markets that “washes away all other stocks.”

The markets

Stocks
DJIA,
-1.21%

SPX,
-1.62%

COMP,
-2.19%
are in the red, and bond yields
TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.783%

TMUBMUSD02Y,
4.199%
are up, along with the dollar
DXYN,
.
Silver
SI00,
-5.00%
is retracing some of this week’s big gains, and bitcoin
BTCUSD,
-2.62%
is also off, trading at just over $20,000. Hong Kong stocks
HSI,
+5.90%
surged 6% in a catch-up move following a holiday. New Zealand’s central bank hiked rates a half point, the fifth increase in a row.

The buzz

Oil prices
CL.1,
-0.02%

BRN00,
+0.28%
are flat as OPEC+ reportedly agreed to cut oil production by 2 million barrels a day. Some say don’t be too impressed by any output reduction.

Amazon
AMZN,
-2.34%
will reportedly freeze corporate hires in its retail business for the remainder of 2022.

Mortgage applications fell to the lowest pace in 25 years in the latest week.

The ADP private-sector payrolls report showed 208,000 jobs added in September. The trade deficit narrowed, which should be good news for third-quarter GDP. The Institute for Supply Management’s services index is due at 10 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will also speak.

Expect the spotlight to stay on Twitter
TWTR,
-2.53%
after Tesla
TSLA,
-5.16%
CEO Elon Musk committed to the $44 billion deal. But will it feel like a win once he owns it?

Plus: Elon Musk’s legal battle with Twitter may be over, but his war with the SEC continues

EU countries agreed to impose new sanctions on Russia after the illegal annexation of four Ukraine regions. Those moves will include an expected price cap on Russian oil.

South Korea’s missile fired in response to North Korea’s weapon launch over Japan, crashed and burned.

Best of the web

Russians fleeing Putin’s mobilization are finding haven in poor, remote countries.

Consumers are throwing away perfectly good food because of ‘best before’ labels.

The CEO of an election software company has been arrested on accusations of ID theft.

Top tickers

These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern:

Ticker Security name
TSLA,
-5.16%
Tesla
GME,
-7.59%
GameStop
AMC,
-9.56%
AMC Entertainment
TWTR,
-2.53%
Twitter
NIO,
-5.92%
NIO
AAPL,
-1.77%
Apple
APE,
-8.40%
AMC Entertainment preferred shares
BBBY,
-8.52%
Bed Bath & Beyond
AMZN,
-2.34%
Amazon
DWAC,
-0.64%
Digital World Acquisition Corp.
The chart

More market-bottom talk:


Twitter

Random reads

All about the investment manager who caught Yankees’ superstar Aaron Judge’s record-breaking home run.

An iPhone in a 162-year old painting? The internet is stumped.

Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

Listen to the Best New Ideas in Money podcast with MarketWatch reporter Charles Passy and economist Stephanie Kelton

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SEC’s Gensler Signals Support for Commodities Regulator Having Bitcoin Oversight

WASHINGTON—Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman

Gary Gensler

signaled that he would support Congress handing more authority to the SEC’s sister markets regulator to oversee certain cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin.

Mr. Gensler, speaking at an industry conference, said Thursday he looked forward to working with Congress to give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission added power, to the extent the agency needs greater authority to oversee and regulate “nonsecurity tokens…and the related intermediaries.”

The remarks come amid an intensifying battle among federal agencies and congressional committees that oversee them over who will regulate crypto.

Cryptocurrencies remain largely unregulated by the federal government, leaving investors without protections from fraud and market manipulation that come with many other types of investments. The competition for jurisdiction heated up in recent months as a meltdown in crypto markets underscored the need for guardrails in the eyes of many policy makers.

The competition also reflects the industry’s ramped-up lobbying presence in Washington and its push to reach more mainstream investors through Super Bowl ads and other high-profile marketing initiatives.

Mr. Gensler, who headed the CFTC from 2009 to 2014, qualified his remarks by saying he welcomed working with lawmakers as long as it doesn’t take away power from the SEC.

“Let’s ensure that we don’t inadvertently undermine securities laws,” he said. “We’ve got a $100 trillion capital market. Crypto is less than $1 trillion worldwide. But we don’t want that to somehow undermine what we do elsewhere.”

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

What should be the next priorities for the SEC? Join the conversation below.

Leaders of the Senate Agriculture Committee, which oversees the CFTC, are pitching legislation that would assign oversight of the two largest cryptocurrencies—bitcoin and ether—to that agency. At present, the CFTC generally has the power to regulate derivatives—such as futures and swaps—as opposed to cash or spot markets where the underlying assets are bought and sold for immediate delivery.

The SEC has declined for years to assert jurisdiction over bitcoin and ether, which proponents say are more “decentralized” than other cryptocurrencies. Mr. Gensler noted Thursday that bitcoin is often likened to a digital form of gold, and that it doesn’t bear all of the characteristics of a security.

The bill from the leaders of the agriculture panel is one of several that lawmakers have offered to more tightly oversee cryptocurrencies. In his remarks, Mr. Gensler didn’t express support for any particular bill.

CFTC Chairman

Rostin Behnam

has asked Congress to pass a law that would allow the CFTC to regulate cash markets for certain types of cryptocurrencies and provide it with funding to conduct additional oversight.

After objecting for years to meaningful federal oversight, cryptocurrency lobbyists have recently shifted their focus to convincing lawmakers and regulators that the CFTC should have primary jurisdiction over their industry. They say the SEC’s rules for traditional securities like stocks and bonds don’t fit because cryptocurrencies aren’t organized as traditional corporations with stockholders.

Jake Chervinsky, head of policy at the Blockchain Association, a crypto lobbying group, said in a statement that “decades of legal precedent shows that most digital assets” are commodities.” He said lawmakers should address the issue.

“This is a matter for Congress rather than regulators, and we’re glad to see consensus in Congress that the CFTC, not the SEC, should regulate spot markets,” he said.

While Mr. Gensler’s comments suggest that his agency shouldn’t oversee bitcoin, he said the majority of crypto tokens are securities that fall under his agency’s jurisdiction and should comply with investor-protection laws. Mr. Gensler also said it is possible some crypto intermediaries would need to be dually registered with both his agency and the CFTC, similar to the way some brokers and mutual-fund firms are overseen by both agencies.

Mr. Gensler has also repeatedly demanded that cryptocurrency-trading platforms such as Coinbase Global Inc. register with the agency as securities exchanges akin to the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq. In May, the SEC nearly doubled the staff of an enforcement unit focused on cryptocurrencies.

WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains why many investors are still betting on crypto, even with the very real threat of losing all their money. Illustration: Rami Abukalam

Write to Andrew Ackerman at andrew.ackerman@wsj.com

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Senate Plan Would Put Bitcoin, Ether Under Commodity Regulator’s Watch

WASHINGTON—Leaders of a Senate committee are pitching legislation that would assign oversight of the two largest cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and ether, to the federal agency that regulates milk futures and interest-rate swaps.

Senate Agriculture Committee Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D., Mich.) and top-ranking Republican John Boozman of Arkansas unveiled a plan Wednesday that would empower the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to regulate spot markets for digital commodities, a newly created asset class. Currently the CFTC has authority to police derivatives, such as futures and swaps, rather than underlying commodities.

The bill marks the latest salvo in an intensifying battle among federal agencies and congressional committees that oversee them over who will regulate crypto. Thirteen years after bitcoin was created, cryptocurrencies remain largely unregulated by the federal government, leaving investors without key protections from fraud and market manipulation.

The competition for jurisdiction heated up in recent months as a meltdown in crypto markets underscored the need for guardrails in the eyes of many policy makers. The competition also reflects the industry’s ramped-up lobbying presence in Washington and its push to reach more mainstream investors through Super Bowl ads and other high-profile marketing initiatives.

‘When there’s a topic as hot as crypto, everybody wants a seat at the table.’


— Aaron Klein, Brookings Institution senior fellow

“When there’s a topic as hot as crypto, everybody wants a seat at the table,” said

Aaron Klein,

a senior fellow at Brookings Institution who focuses on financial regulation. “The question is, are we going to have regulatory turf paralysis?”

In practical terms, for federal agencies such as the CFTC, Securities and Exchange Commission, and Federal Reserve, adding crypto to their remit would bring bigger budgets, greater influence and more job opportunities for officials who leave public service. For members of the congressional committees that oversee such regulators, a new industry in their sandbox would create another stream of lobbyists and campaign donations.

“We need to treat this seriously and take our responsibilities seriously for protecting consumers,” Ms. Stabenow said in a virtual press conference alongside Mr. Boozman.

Washington has introduced a flurry of bills in recent months to draw jurisdictional lines. Sens.

Cynthia Lummis

(R., Wyo.) and

Kirsten Gillibrand

(D., N.Y.) unveiled a proposal in June that would create exemptions for cryptocurrencies in securities laws, banking statutes and tax code. In July, leaders of the House Financial Services Committee said they were working on a bill to grant the Federal Reserve a greater role in regulating some stablecoins, crypto tokens pegged against the dollar and other official currencies.

When cryptocurrency lending platform Celsius froze user accounts amid a plunge in valuations, it sent ripples across the industry and raised questions about what happens to user assets if a crypto platform files for bankruptcy. WSJ’s Vicky Ge Huang explains. Photo illustration: Jordan Kranse

Agencies also are seeking to claim territory. CFTC Chairman

Rostin Behnam,

a former staffer to Ms. Stabenow, said last week his agency is “ready and well situated” to oversee spot markets for some cryptocurrencies. He has worked with his former boss for months to help craft legislation that would authorize the CFTC to do so, people familiar with the matter say.

Meanwhile, SEC Chairman

Gary Gensler

has repeatedly demanded that cryptocurrency-trading platforms such as

Coinbase Global Inc.

register with the agency as securities exchanges akin to the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq. In May, the SEC nearly doubled the staff of an enforcement unit focused on cryptocurrencies.

“Four years ago when I started this job, there were some people that just thought this thing was all going to blow up and go away, that this was sort of a passing fad,” said Kristin Smith, executive director of the Blockchain Association, a trade group representing crypto firms.

Now, she said, “We’ve got all these regulators suddenly vying for control.”

After the SEC alleged in an insider-trading case in July that at least seven cryptocurrencies listed on Coinbase should have been registered as securities, Republican CFTC Commissioner

Caroline Pham

accused the SEC of “regulation by enforcement.”

“The SEC is not working together with the CFTC,” Ms. Pham said in an interview. “They go out unilaterally to try to establish precedent that’s going to dramatically reshape the landscape as to what’s a security and what’s a commodity.”

Ms. Pham has posted photos to her

Twitter

account of herself posing alongside crypto lobbyists and executives including

Sam Bankman-Fried,

the billionaire founder of trading platform FTX.

Ms. Pham said that crypto is one of the areas she is focused on, and, “I take pictures with everybody. Like, literally, everybody.”

At the heart of the turf war are questions about how cryptocurrencies fit into the definition of a security, the legal classification that includes stocks and bonds.

Coinbase and other firms have lobbied Congress to create a new category for digital commodities and empower the CFTC to regulate it.



Photo:

Shannon Stapleton/REUTERS

A 1946 Supreme Court case created a test that focuses on whether investors buy an asset in hopes of profiting from the efforts of other people. If so, the issuer is required to register with the SEC and publicly disclose any information that may be material to the security’s price.

Even though investors in bitcoin and ether rely on a network of users and programmers to validate transactions and perform software updates, cryptocurrency enthusiasts insist those groups are too decentralized for the assets to be regulated like securities. Instead, they argue, the assets should be considered commodities, which have a broader definition and no full-time regulator.

Firms such as Coinbase, FTX and Ripple have spent millions of dollars over the past year lobbying Congress to create a new category for digital commodities and empower the CFTC to regulate it. The agency has roughly one-sixth the head count of the SEC, and its rules are seen by the industry as easier to comply with than securities laws.

“When you ask the people that are in the industry…almost all feel like the regulator should be primarily the CFTC,” Mr. Boozman said. “The fact that they’re fairly united on that makes it easier on members.”

Crypto skeptics worry that creating a new legal concept for cryptocurrencies could create an alternative to securities registration for a wider variety of assets.

“People who are taking action that could undermine our securities law are playing with fire,” said Dennis Kelleher, president of investor-advocacy group Better Markets. “You may love or hate the SEC, but transparent disclosure, clear rules…and enforcement is what builds trust and confidence in our markets.”

The legislation being unveiled Wednesday would seek to exclude securities from the definition of digital commodities, making it narrower in scope than that of other crypto-related bills floated in recent months, such as the Lummis-Gillibrand proposal.

Ms. Stabenow said she expects the Agriculture Committee to hold a hearing on the bill as early as September.

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The bill would require any entity acting as a digital commodity platform—including crypto exchanges such as Coinbase and FTX—to register with the CFTC as trading facilities, dealers or brokers. The exchanges would have to monitor trading, protect investors from abuse and only offer assets that are resistant to market manipulation, among other requirements.

Platforms also would be obliged to disclose some information about the assets they list, such as operating structure and conflicts of interest. Such information would likely fall short of the extensive disclosures required by the SEC for securities.

The derivatives markets the CFTC currently oversees are dominated by professional investors, such as banks and hedge funds. Crypto markets, by contrast, draw legions of small investors who are more vulnerable to scams.

If the agency wins jurisdiction over bitcoin and ether, the CFTC would have to write rules from scratch to protect such investors.

“How robust would they be and how long would that take?” asked Tyler Gellasch, executive director of the Healthy Markets Association, an investor trade group.

Write to Paul Kiernan at paul.kiernan@wsj.com

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Was Fed’s Powell dovish or not? 4 key takeaways from Wednesday’s press conference

Investors reacted as if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference Wednesday was dovish, but many economists think it was on the hawkish side of the street.

Here are some of the key takeaways from Powell’s hour-long discussion with reporters about the state of the economy and central bank policy:

Read: Fed jacks up rates to combat highest inflation in 41 years

You say ‘dovish’ and I say ‘hawkish’

After Powell spoke, stock prices
DJIA,
+1.37%

SPX,
+2.62%
rose sharply and bond yields
TMUBMUSD02Y,
2.984%
declined more at the short end than the long end, clear signs the market thought Powell was dovish.

But Robert Perli, head of global policy at Piper Sandler, disagreed with this conclusion.

“The press conference was hawkish,” he said.

“All Powell could do at the press conference today was talk about how inflation was too high, how the Fed is determined to bring it down, and implicitly how he would be willing to tolerate a recession if that’s what’s needed to get the job done,” Perli said.

The market latched on to Powell’s statement that slowing down from the pace of 0.75-percentage-point rate hikes will likely be appropriate “at some point.” Perli said this is “obvious” as the Fed can’t continue on that pace forever.

The market also liked when Powell said the Fed was moving to a new “meeting-to-meeting” phase, perhaps believing that a peak in interest rates is near.

Perli said that’s a misreading and Powell doesn’t want to give guidance because there is so much uncertainty.

Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West, said the lack of forward guidance from the Fed could increase interest-rate and stock-market volatility around important U.S. data releases, especially on inflation “as investors try to determine what it might mean for the pace of additional rate hikes and the terminal peak for rates in the current tightening cycle.”

Powell ‘bobs and weaves’ on recession

Powell managed to “bob and weave” around the questions of recession, said Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR.

Powell said the Fed wasn’t trying to create a recession and did not expect one, and also that we are not currently in one. He refused to categorically state how it would affect the Fed’s policy path if one materialized, Shapiro said.

The Fed chairman said there was still a path to bring inflation down while sustaining a strong labor market.

“We continue to think that there is a path [to a soft landing]. We know the path has clearly narrowed…and may narrow further,” he said.

Powell said the Fed is determined to bring inflation down, and this likely means a period of “below-trend economic growth and some softening in the labor market conditions. “

What about September?

Powell kept the door open for another “unusually large” 0.75-percentage-point hike in September, but said it would depend on the data.

Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust, noted that Powell suggested that the year-end fed funds rate would be in the range of 3.25%-3.5%. That is another 100 basis points higher, which the Fed might prefer to accomplish with a 50-basis-point increase followed by two 25-basis-point hikes, rather than going from 75 basis points in September, to 25, then to zero. Powell “sounded marginally less hawkish to me,” he said.

Balance-sheet plans

Powell said the Fed’s program to shrink its balance sheet is working and markets “should be able to absorb this.” He said the plan was on track and could take two to two-and-a-half years.

Some economists have starting to forecast the Fed will end the “quantitative tightening” program next year.

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