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European shares struggle ahead of U.S. jobs data

LONDON, July 8 (Reuters) – European shares opened slightly lower on Friday and struggled to make gains after the shooting of Japan’s former prime minister caused a pullback in Asian shares, while investors waited for key U.S. jobs data later in the session.

Investor sentiment had been positive earlier in the session, which analysts said was due to attempts by U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers to ease recession fears and news of Chinese fiscal stimulus.

U.S. indexes had a positive close on Thursday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller called recession fears “overblown”, while St. Louis Fed Bank President James Bullard said he saw a “good chance” of a soft landing for the economy. read more

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But Asian shares gave up some of their gains and the safe-haven Japanese yen rose after news that Shinzo Abe was in grave condition, after being shot while campaigning for a parliamentary election. read more

Abe stepped down in 2020 citing ill health, but he has remained a dominant presence over the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), controlling one of its major factions.

The longer-term impact of the shooting on markets was unclear, said Guillaume Paillat, multi-asset portfolio manager at Aviva Investors, adding that he did not think it would impact Japan’s elections this weekend.

At 0751 GMT, the MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 50 countries, was down 0.1% on the day but set for a 1.4% weekly gain overall (.MIWD00000PUS).

Europe’s STOXX 600 was up 0.1% (.STOXX), while France’s CAC 40 was 0.2% higher (.FCHI) and Germany’s DAX was down 0.1% (.GDAXI).

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was still up 0.3% on the day, but had retreated from the 8-day high hit earlier in the session.

The Japanese yen rose as much as 0.5% immediately after news of Abe’s shooting, before steadying around 135.835 . read more

The latest indicator of the health of the U.S. economy is due later in the day with the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls data. The consensus expectation is for 268,000 jobs to have been added in May.

“Employment matters because job security underpins the economic recovery,” Paul Donovan, chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a note to clients.

“Today’s data should show some slowdown in job creation, but the payrolls and hours worked numbers have recently remained completely inconsistent with any idea of a recession.”

The dollar index rose ahead of the data, up 0.6% on the day at its highest since 2002 .

The British pound was down 0.7% against the stronger dollar after UK prime Minister Boris Johnson resigned on Thursday. ING analysts said markets likely welcomed the change in leadership but that it was too soon to tell the impact on the pound.

The euro was at $1.00895 . It has slid towards parity with the dollar as investors worry that an energy crisis brought on by the uncertainty of gas supply from Russia can tip the continent into recession.

“Europe is still maybe on the back foot because of the uncertainty around the energy issue,” Aviva’s Paillat said.

Germany’s benchmark 10-year bond was two basis points lower at 1.275% , while the U.S. 10-year yield was around 2.9798% .

The two-year, ten-year part of the Treasury yield curve inverted on Tuesday for the first time in three weeks. An inversion in this part of the curve is seen as a reliable indicator that a recession will follow in one to two years. .

Oil prices were down, with Brent crude futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude set for a weekly loss. read more

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Reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft; Editing by Kim Coghill

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Dollar reigns as investors fear recession pain

  • Oil, Europe equity futures steady after steep drop
  • Euro huddles at 20-yr low; sterling squeezed
  • China stocks slip on fresh Shanghai virus outbreak

TOKYO/SINGAPORE, July 6 (Reuters) – Asian stocks fell and the dollar stood by a two-decade high on the euro on Wednesday as investors’ fears deepened that the continent is leading the world into recession, while oil and European equity futures made a wobbly attempt to steady.

Brent crude futures have slid this month on worries that a global slowdown will sap demand. Prices slumped 9.5% to a 2-1/2 month low of $101.10 on Tuesday, before bouncing slightly to $103.86 a barrel in the Asia session on Wednesday.

MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 1%, led by a 2% drop for Taiwan’s benchmark index (.TWII) – heavy with growth-sensitive computer chip makers – which hit an 18-month low. Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) fell 1.1%.

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S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% while FTSE futures and EuroSTOXX 50 futures rose 1% after heavy Tuesday selling.

News has been relentlessly negative, with talk of gas rationing in Europe, a political crisis in Britain and a fresh flare up of COVID-19 cases prompting fresh restrictions in Shanghai. read more

In the United States, the two-year Treasury yield has dropped below the 10-year yield , a reliable market signal of a recession capping growth in the medium term.

“The drumbeat is getting louder and louder about recession risk,” said Jason Teh, chief investment officer at Vertium Asset Management in Sydney.

“Right now defence is the name of the game. It’s the best strategy right now, because in a recession a lot of things can fall out of bed.”

Accordingly ,the dollar has been king and a safety bid has even returned to the beaten-down Japanese yen. The U.S. dollar index hit a 20-year high of 106.79 on Tuesday, hoisted by a tumbling euro.

The index hovered at 106.440 on Wednesday and the yen rose about 0.4% to 135.39 per dollar.

The euro huddled at $1.0266 after dropping as far as $1.0236 on Tuesday and traders expect little respite. Selling could follow if Eurozone retail sales figures due at 0900 GMT disappoint expectations for a 0.4% monthly rise in May.

“There are no important support levels for EUR/USD until $1,” said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Kristina Clifton.

Sterling was near a two-year low at $1.1944 after the resignation of two of Britain’s top government ministers put Prime Minster Boris Johnson’s leadership under new pressure. read more

GAS GAS GAS

Uncertainty over Europe’s gas supply is leading the latest round of worries, and has sent prices rocketing against slumps in other commodities on growth worries.

Benchmark Dutch gas prices have doubled since the middle of June.

Some investors worry that flow along the Nord Stream pipeline, which brings gas from Russia to Germany, might not resume after a ten-day maintenance shutdown from July 11 and that winter supply shortages will then prompt rationing and a sharp drop in economic activity.

The backdrop is rising interest rates.

The Federal Reserve publishes minutes later on Wednesday from the June meeting, where it announced the sharpest hike in the U.S. benchmark interest rate in nearly 30 years. It is likely to foreshadow more hikes as Fed officials have said their top priority is fighting inflation, even at the cost of growth.

“The probability of a soft landing had massively declined,” August Hatecke, the co-head of UBS Wealth Management Asia Pacific told investors at a conference in Singapore. The growth-sensitive Australian dollar was stuck near a two-year low at $0.6805.

Spot gold was last steady at $1,771 an ounce after sliding on the strong dollar overnight. The safe haven is down about 3% this year, less than the steep losses for equities and bonds.

Treasuries were steady in Asia with the 10-year yield at 2.8327% and the two-year yield at 2.8385%. Bitcoin , which has been demolished in the flight from risky assets, sat at $20,115.

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Reporting by Sam Byford; Editing by Sam Holmes and Kim Coghill

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Stocks up in holiday mood on resilient oil

  • Oil recovers after losing $1 a barrel in early trade
  • Nikkei rises 0.84%, Chinese stocks up 0.7%
  • FTSE up more than 1%, S&P futures down 0.3%
  • Payrolls seen slowing this week, Fed minutes seen hawkish

LONDON, July 4 (Reuters) – World stocks rose on Monday in trade thinned by a U.S. holiday, benefiting from a recovery in oil prices as concerns about tight supply helped to balance recession fears.

European stocks (.STOXX) rallied 0.9% and Britain’s FTSE (.FTSE) rose over 1%, helped by gains in oil and gas companies.

Oil dropped $1 a barrel earlier on Monday on worries about the global economic outlook, but found support from data showing lower output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), unrest in Libya and sanctions on Russia.

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“Oil fundamentals remain supportive,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodity research at ING.

“Clearly OPEC is still struggling to hit its agreed output levels,”

Output from the 10 members of OPEC in June fell 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 28.52 million bpd, off their pledged increase of about 275,000 bpd, a Reuters survey showed on Friday. read more

Brent crude dipped 0.2% to $111.39, while U.S. crude fell 0.36% to $108.04 per barrel. But both held up above one-week lows hit on Friday.

MSCI’s world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.38% and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.37%, after losing 1.8% last week.

Global equities hit 18-month lows last month on anxiety about rising inflation and interest rates, but have since made minor gains.

Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) closed 0.7% higher, helped by a 4.65% surge in Chinese healthcare stocks (.CSIHCSI). Cities in eastern China tightened COVID-19 curbs on Sunday amid new coronavirus clusters. read more

Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) added 0.84%.

U.S. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both fell 0.3%, however, as recent soft U.S. data suggested downside risks for this week’s June payrolls report. U.S. stock markets are shut on Monday.

“Some markets are starting to find their footing but there’s a lot of volatility right now,” said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management, pointing to risks from the release of key U.S. non-farm payrolls data later this week.

TECHNICAL RECESSION

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s much watched GDP Now forecast slid to an annualised -2.1% for the second quarter, implying the country was already in a technical recession.

The payrolls report on Friday is forecast to show jobs growth slowing to 270,000 in June, with average earnings slowing a touch to 5.0%.

Minutes of the Fed’s June policy meeting on Wednesday are expected to sound hawkish, however, given the committee chose to hike rates by a super-sized 75 basis points.

The market is pricing in around an 85% chance of another hike of 75 basis points this month and rates at 3.25-3.5% by year end.

But asset manager Nuveen sees some room for optimism after sharp market falls in the first half.

“Beaten-down public markets offer extremely compelling upside potential in the near term,” its Global Investment Committee said in its mid-year 2022 outlook on Monday.

Cash Treasuries were shut but futures extended their gains, implying 10-year yields were holding around 2.88%, having fallen 61 basis points from their June peak.

German 10-year government bond yields , the benchmark for the euro zone, rallied 7 basis points to 1.299% after plunging last week as investors rushed to safe-haven bonds. Bond yields move inversely to price.

The U.S. dollar ticked 0.13% lower to 104.9 against a basket of currencies , moving away from recent 20-year highs reached due to its safe haven status.

The euro gained 0.21% to $1.0450 , backing away from its recent five-year trough of $1.0349. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates this month for the first time in a decade, and the euro could get a lift if it decides on a more aggressive half-point move.

The Japanese yen also attracted safe haven flows late last week, dragging the dollar back to 135.41 yen from a 24-year top of 137.01, though it was up 0.16% on the day.

A high dollar and rising interest rates have not been kind to non-yielding gold, which was trading at $1,805 an ounce , down 0.28% after hitting a six-month low at $1,784 last week.

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Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Sam Holmes, Shri Navaratnam and Ed Osmond

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World stocks skid as consumer data flashes recession worry

LONDON, June 29 (Reuters) – Global stock markets slipped for the second straight day on Wednesday and bond yields inched lower on growing fears that policymakers bent on dampening inflation will tip their economies into recession.

A succession of weak data releases in Europe and the United States has not prevented central bankers from doubling down on hawkish rhetoric. More is likely later on Wednesday when the heads of the European Central Bank, U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England speak at a central banking forum.

Data on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a 16-month low in June, yet several Fed policymakers pledged further rapid interest-rate hikes, citing the need to tame “unbridled” inflation. read more

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Those U.S. figures, following a raft of dismal consumer confidence data across Europe, triggered steep Wall Street falls, sending the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indexes down 2% and 3% respectively (.SPX), (.NQC1).

That weaker momentum carried into Wednesday, sending an Asian ex-Japan index 1.4% lower (.MIAPJ0000PUS), while a pan- European equity index (.STOXX) eased 0.3%, snapping a three-day rally.

U.S. and German 10-year bond yields slipped 2-4 basis points (bps), the former down around 30 bps from mid-June highs , .

The consumer sentiment deterioration clearly points to recession, Citi told clients.

After 7.5%-7.9% annual inflation prints across German provinces, an 8% June reading is expected for the country later in the day, versus 7.9% in May. Meanwhile Spanish annual inflation hit 10.2% in June, from 8.7% the previous month and the first time it surpassed 10% since 1985.

Paul O’Connor, head of Janus Henderson’s multi-asset team in London, predicted “stormy” markets as long as the growth- inflation question marks persisted.

“The problem is that the level of inflation is so problematic in so many parts of the world and we are a long way from central banks being able to declare the job is done,” O’Connor said.

“We will undoubtedly get growth downgrades over the summer but we will also get rising perception of recession risk and I don’t think markets are fully priced for it.”

Sentiment had lifted early on Tuesday on news China was easing quarantine requirements for inbound passengers in a major relaxation of its “zero COVID” strategy. read more

While parts of the Chinese stock market, including property, extended gains on Wednesday, the positive impact of the news largely petered out – Chinese blue-chips, which hit four-month highs on Tuesday, slumped 1.5% and Hong Kong lost 2% (.CSI300), (.HSI).

“Inevitably, markets tend to overreact to these sorts of news,” said Carlos Casanova, senior economist at UBP in Hong Kong. “In order for that to be sustainable, we really want to see these measures materialise into actual reopening.”

Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq eased 0.15% to 0.25% respectively , by 1000 GMT.

OIL AND DOLLAR

Inflation fears are being fanned further by oil prices which extended their rise into a fourth day, sending Brent crude futures above $117 a barrel .

“The market is stuck in the push-pull between the current deteriorating macro backdrop and the looming threat of a recession, pitted against the strongest fundamental oil market set-up in decades, maybe ever,” RBC Capital’s Mike Tran told clients.

The OPEC+ crude exporters group started a two-day meeting on Wednesday but big policy changes look unlikely, with United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei already indicating his country is pumping close to capacity. read more

Market jitters are driving a renewed bid for the dollar, lifting it to a one-week high against a basket of currencies.

The euro was flat against the greenback at $1.0514 while the yen at 136.43 per dollar slipped 0.2%, approaching last week’s 24-year low of 136.7.

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Reporting by Sujata Rao in London and Sam Byford in Tokyo; Editing by Nick Macfie and Alex Richardson

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Stocks swing higher as China eases quarantine rules

A man wearing a protective mask, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, walks past an electronic board displaying graphs (top) of Nikkei index outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, March 10, 2022. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

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HONG KONG, June 28 (Reuters) – Asian shares swung into positive territory in afternoon trade on Tuesday, propelled by China’s decision to ease some quarantine requirements for international arrivals, with Hong Kong stocks particularly supported.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was up 0.5%, having spent most of the day in the red. The index has fallen 3.8% so far this month.

Health authorities said on Tuesday that China will halve to seven days its COVID-19 quarantine period for visitors from overseas, with a further three days spent at home. read more

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Following the news, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index (.HSI) reversed its losses and jumped 0.85% in afternoon trade.

In China, the blue-chip CSI300 index (.CSI300) was 1% higher, also having clawed back earlier losses.

The sharp change in mood looked set to last into the global day with the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.31%, German DAX futures 0.2% higher and FTSE futures climbing 0.47%. U.S. stock futures rose 0.46%.

“With local new infections dropping further in June, and COVID curbs to ease more, we expect the (Chinese) economy to continue to recover,” BofA said in its note. “That said, given soft domestic demand and lingering COVID uncertainties, the mending path is likely to be bumpy in the coming months.”

Market sentiment was also boosted by an official’s remarks that Beijing would roll out tools to cope with economic challenges as COVID-19 outbreaks and risks from the Ukraine war pose a threat to employment and price stability. read more

Australian shares (.AXJO) were up 0.86%, while Japan’s Nikkei stock index (.N225) rose 0.66%.

U.S. stocks ended a volatile trading session slightly lower on Monday with few catalysts to sway investor sentiment as they approach the half-way point of a year in which equity markets have been slammed by heightened inflation worries and tightening Fed policy.

Interest rate sensitive megacaps such as Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O), Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) and Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O) were the heaviest drags on the U.S. main indexes.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 0.2%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 0.30% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 0.72%.

Oil continued to rise with investors still weighing worries about an economic slowdown against concerns over lost Russian supply amid sanctions related to the conflict in Ukraine.

U.S. crude ticked up 1.02% to $110.69 a barrel. Brent crude rose to $116.42 per barrel.

“A seam of tight supply news bolstered the (oil) market,” said analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “Political unrest might curtail supply from a couple of second-tier producers, Ecuador and Libya. And then there’s the G7’s proposed price cap on Russian oil.”

In bond markets, Treasury yields climbed on Monday following capital and durable goods orders data and as pending home sales surprised to the upside from the previous month.

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes last reached 3.1828% on Tuesday, compared with its U.S. close of 3.194% on Monday. The two-year yield , which rises with traders’ expectations of higher Fed fund rates, touched 3.0934%.

Also, the dollar edged lower versus major rivals as investors weighed expectations on inflation and interest rate hikes. The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies of other major trading partners, was down at 103.96.

Gold was slightly higher with the spot price trading at $1,825.79 per ounce.

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Reporting by Julie Zhu; Editing by Sam Holmes

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G7 aims to raise $600 billion to counter China’s Belt and Road

U.S. President Joe Biden attends a working lunch with other G7 leaders to discuss shaping the global economy at the Yoga Pavilion, Schloss Elmau in Kuren, Germany, June 26, 2022. Kenny Holston/Pool via REUTERS

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SCHLOSS ELMAU, Germany, June 26 (Reuters) – Group of Seven leaders on Sunday pledged to raise $600 billion in private and public funds over five years to finance needed infrastructure in developing countries and counter China’s older, multitrillion-dollar Belt and Road project.

U.S. President Joe Biden and other G7 leaders relaunched the newly renamed “Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment,” at their annual gathering being held this year at Schloss Elmau in southern Germany.

Biden said the United States would mobilize $200 billion in grants, federal funds and private investment over five years to support projects in low- and middle-income countries that help tackle climate change as well as improve global health, gender equity and digital infrastructure.

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“I want to be clear. This isn’t aid or charity. It’s an investment that will deliver returns for everyone,” Biden said, adding that it would allow countries to “see the concrete benefits of partnering with democracies.”

Biden said hundreds of billions of additional dollars could come from multilateral development banks, development finance institutions, sovereign wealth funds and others.

Europe will mobilize 300 billion euros for the initiative over the same period to build up a sustainable alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative scheme, which Chinese President Xi Jinping launched in 2013, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the gathering.

The leaders of Italy, Canada and Japan also spoke about their plans, some of which have already been announced separately. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson were not present, but their countries are also participating.

China’s investment scheme involves development and programs in over 100 countries aimed at creating a modern version of the ancient Silk Road trade route from Asia to Europe.

White House officials said the plan has provided little tangible benefit for many developing countries.

Biden highlighted several flagship projects, including a $2 billion solar development project in Angola with support from the Commerce Department, the U.S. Export-Import Bank, U.S. firm AfricaGlobal Schaffer, and U.S. project developer Sun Africa.

Together with G7 members and the EU, Washington will also provide $3.3 million in technical assistance to Institut Pasteur de Dakar in Senegal as it develops an industrial-scale flexible multi-vaccine manufacturing facility in that country that can eventually produce COVID-19 and other vaccines, a project that also involves the EU.

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) will also commit up to $50 million over five years to the World Bank’s global Childcare Incentive Fund.

Friederike Roder, vice president of the non-profit group Global Citizen, said the pledges of investment could be “a good start” toward greater engagement by G7 countries in developing nations and could underpin stronger global growth for all.

G7 countries on average provide only 0.32% of their gross national income, less than half of the 0.7% promised, in development assistance, she said.

“But without developing countries, there will be no sustainable recovery of the world economy,” she said.

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Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Mark Porter and Lisa Shumaker

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Biden says G7 must stick together as gold sanctions target Putin’s ‘war machine’

  • Biden says Russia has failed to split G7
  • Biden condemns “barbarism” as missiles strike Kyiv
  • Gold ban targets ‘Putin’s war machine’, says British PM
  • Oil import price cap also being discussed, says German source
  • Not clear if EU will back Russia gold import ban

SCHLOSS ELMAU, Germany, June 26 (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden told allies “we have to stay together” against Russia, as world leaders met on Sunday at a G7 summit in the Bavarian Alps that will be dominated by war in Ukraine and its painful impact on food and energy supplies across the globe.

At the start of the meeting, four members of the Group of Seven rich nations moved to ban imports of Russian gold as part of efforts to tighten the sanctions squeeze on Moscow and cut off its means of financing the invasion of Ukraine.

However, it was not immediately clear whether there was consensus on the move, with European Council President Charles Michel saying the issue would need to be handled carefully or risk backfiring.

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Western countries rallied around Kyiv when Russia invaded Ukraine in February, but more than four months into the war, that unity is being tested as soaring inflation and energy shortages rebound on their own citizens.

Chided by Ukraine for not going far enough to punish Russia, G7 leaders were also having “really constructive” talks on a possible price cap on Russian oil imports, a German government source said earlier.

At the start of a bilateral meeting, Biden thanked German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for showing leadership on Ukraine and said Russian President Vladimir Putin had failed to break their unity. Scholz has faced criticism at home and abroad of his handling of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“We can get through all of this and come out stronger,” Biden said.

“Because Putin has been counting on it from the beginning that somehow the NATO and the G7 would splinter. But we haven’t and we’re not going to.”

Britain said the ban on Russian gold imports was aimed at wealthy Russians who have been buying safe-haven bullion to reduce the financial impact of Western sanctions. Russian gold exports were worth 12.6 billion pounds ($15.45 billion) last year.

“The measures we have announced today will directly hit Russian oligarchs and strike at the heart of Putin’s war machine,” British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said in a statement.

“We need to starve the Putin regime of its funding. The UK and our allies are doing just that.”

Britain, the United States, Canada and Japan will ban Russian gold imports. France also supported the move.

On the oil price cap and on the gold import ban, Michel said the issue would need to be discussed further.

“I’m careful and cautious, we are ready to go into the details,” he said. “We are ready to take a decision together with our partners, but we want to make sure that what we decide will have a negative effect (on Russia) and not a negative effect for ourselves.”

As missiles struck the Ukrainian capital Kyiv on Sunday, hitting an apartment block and a kindergarten, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said the G7 must respond with more weapons and tougher sanctions on Russia. read more

Biden called the strikes acts of “barbarism”.

MESSAGE OF UNITY

The summit takes place against an even darker backdrop than last year, when the leaders of the G7 countries – Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States – met for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

As delegates arrived at Schloss Elmau, a castle at the foot of the Wetterstein mountains, they were greeted with flowers as Bavarian mountain riflemen stood to attention in the sunshine.

Leaders are expected to discuss options for tackling rising energy prices and replacing Russian oil and gas imports. They also want to avoid sanctions that could stoke inflation and exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis affecting their own populations.

Soaring global energy and food prices are hitting economic growth in the wake of the conflict in Ukraine, with the United Nations warning of an “unprecedented global hunger crisis”. read more

Climate change, an increasingly assertive China and the rise of authoritarianism are also set to be on the agenda.

The summit provides an opportunity for Scholz to demonstrate more assertive leadership on the Ukraine crisis.

Scholz vowed a revolution in German foreign and defence policy after Russia’s invasion in February, promising to bolster the military and send weapons to Ukraine. But critics have since accused him of dragging his feet and sending mixed messages.

This year Scholz has invited Senegal, Argentina, Indonesia, India and South Africa as partner nations at the summit.

Many countries of the global south are concerned about the collateral damage from western sanctions.

An EU official said G7 countries would impress upon the partner countries that food price spikes hitting them were the result of Russia’s actions and that there were no sanctions targeting food. It was also a mistake to think of the Ukraine war as a local matter.

“It’s more than this. It’s questioning the order, the post Second World War order,” the official said.

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Reporting by Sarah Marsh, Andrea Shalal, Philip Blenkinsop, John Irish, and William Schomberg; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky
Writing by Sarah Marsh and Matthias Williams
Editing by Peter Graff and David Goodman

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Stocks temper their inflation expectations on copper pounding

  • S&P futures up 0.9%, European stocks gain 1.5%
  • MSCI world stocks eyeing 2.5% weekly rise
  • Copper falls more than 7% on week, oil down 2%
  • German 10-year bond yields drop 4 bps

LONDON, June 24 (Reuters) – World stocks headed for their first weekly gain in a month and Wall Street was set to open higher on Friday on hopes that slides in copper and other commodities could put a brake on runaway inflation.

The week has been marked by steep declines for commodities on concern that the world economy is looking shaky and that interest rate hikes will hurt growth – which in turn is prompting traders to cut inflation expectations and pare back some bets on the size of the hikes.

“Inflation will remain elevated and above target but it’s increasingly likely it will start to peak over the next few months,” Andrew Hardy, investment manager at Momentum Global Investment Management, said.

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“Markets could take that reasonably well – there’s potential for recovery later in the year.”

U.S. S&P futures rose 0.9% and MSCI’s world equities index (.MIWD00000PUS) was up 0.5% on the day and 2.5% on the week, setting it up for the first weekly gain since May.

Copper, a bellwether for economic output with its wide range of industrial and construction uses, is heading for its steepest weekly drop since March 2020. It fell in London and Shanghai on Friday and is down more than 7% on the week.

Tin fell by almost 15% on Friday, taking losses this week to a record 25%, as investors fear that slowing economic growth will reduce demand for the metal used in solder for electronics.

Brent crude futures rose more than $1 to $111.28 a barrel on Friday but remain down 2% on the week and 10%

on the month, while benchmark grain prices sank, with Chicago wheat off more than 8% for the week.

Gold was up 0.2% at $1,826.30 per ounce but was heading for a second straight weekly fall.

The price drops have offered some relief to equities, since energy and food have been the drivers of inflation.

European stocks (.STOXX) jumped 1.5%, on course to post small weekly gains. Britain’s FTSE (.FTSE) rose 1.3%, also showing a small uptick on the week.

“For long-term investors, the story has not changed – falling markets offer more attractive valuations on high quality companies with a competitive edge,” Lewis Grant, senior portfolio manager for global equities at Federated Hermes, said.

The Federal Reserve’s commitment to reining in 40-year-high inflation is “unconditional,” U.S. central bank chief Jerome Powell told lawmakers on Thursday, while acknowledging that sharply higher interest rates may push up unemployment. read more

Germany is heading for a gas shortage if Russian gas supplies remain as low as they are now due to the Ukraine conflict, and certain industries would have to be shut down if there is not enough come winter, Economy Minister Robert Habeck told Der Spiegel magazine on Friday. read more

Ukraine said Russian forces had “fully occupied” a town south of the strategically important city of Lysychansk in the eastern Luhansk region as of Friday. read more

Bonds rallied hard on hopes that bets on aggressive rate hikes would have to be curtailed, with German two-year yields sliding 26 basis points on Thursday in their biggest drop since 2008.

The German 10-year yield was down 4 bps on Friday after slumping 29 bps on Thursday, and was heading for its first weekly drop since mid-May.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield gained 4 bps to 3.1076%, however, after falling 7 bps on Thursday

Bond funds suffered their largest outflows since April 2020 in the week to Wednesday while equities lost $16.8 billion as markets were stuck in maximum bearish mode, BofA’s weekly analysis of flows showed on Friday.

The U.S. dollar has slipped from last week’s 20-year highs. The euro gained 0.23% to $1.05470 and the U.S. currency was flat at 135.03 yen .

The battered yen has steadied this week and drew a little support on Friday from Japanese inflation topping the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for a second straight month, putting more pressure on its ultra-easy policy stance. read more

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 1.1%, helped by short sellers’ bailing out of Alibaba (9988.HK) – which rose nearly 6% – amid hints that China’s technology crackdown is abating.

Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) rose 1.2% for a 2% weekly gain.

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Additional reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru, Tom Westbrook in Singapore and Sam Byford in Tokyo; editing by Jacqueline Wong, John Stonestreet and Andrew Heavens

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Stocks and oil tumble as recession fears mount

  • European stocks tumble as risk on mood evaporates
  • Oil prices slump over 4% ahead of U.S. cap move
  • Bond yields drop but euro zone spreads widen
  • Dollar bulls send yen to new 24-year low
  • Graphic: Global asset performance

LONDON, June 22 (Reuters) – World stock markets and oil prices hit the skids on Wednesday as the persistent palpitations about rising interest rates and recessions struck again, while the Japanese yen hit a fresh 24-year low against a seemingly unstoppable U.S. dollar.

The enthusiasm that had given Wall Street its best day in over a month on Tuesday was suddenly gone as Europe opened 1.5% lower and Brent crude prices plunged 4% following what had also been a downbeat Asian session.

Fired-up dollar bulls weren’t taking any prisoners either on bets that the head of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell, will reiterate to Washington later the need to jack up U.S. rates hard and fast.

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As well as compounding the yen’s woes, it knocked the euro down 0.3%, Norway’s oil-sensitive crown slumped 1.3% and Britain’s pound dropped 0.7% as data confirmed inflation there is now running at a 40-year high of 9.1%. read more

“It is remarkable how quickly the market has turned again after that little squeeze up in sentiment yesterday,” said Saxo Bank FX strategist John Hardy.

“The commodity market seems to be calling a (global) recession,” he added. “And the dollar is pivoting to strength as a safe-haven”.

Those recession worries were also showing in the bond markets where U.S. and German government bond yields fell as traders sought out traditional safe harbours.

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasuries fell to 3.233% while Germany’s 10-year yield dropped 7 basis points (bps) to 1.692%, having hit its highest since January 2014 at 1.928% last week.

But the spreads between Germany and highly-indebted Italy widened again. Its foreign minister Luigi Di Maio said he was leaving the 5-Star Movement to form a new parliamentary group backing the government, a move that threatens to bring fresh instability to Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s coalition. read more

Overnight, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) slumped 2.3% to close to a five-week low. Heavyweight Hong Kong-listed tech firms plunged over 4% (.HSTECH) although Tokyo’s Nikkei (.N225) managed to keep its losses to just 0.4%.

Investors are continuing to assess how worried they need to be about central banks potentially pushing the world economy into recession as they attempt to curb red hot inflation with interest rate increases.

The main U.S. share benchmarks rose 2% overnight on the possibility the economic outlook might not be as dire as thought during trade last week when the S&P 500 (.SPX) logged its biggest weekly percentage decline since March 2020.

But the lift in Wall Street sentiment didn’t look set to last either with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures , both down nearly 1% on Wednesday.

“I think that this recent post-holiday bear market rally is a reflection of the uncertainty that investors have regarding whether we have seen the peak of inflation and Fed hawkishness or not – I think we’re close,” said Invesco global market strategist for Asia Pacific David Chao.

U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is due to start his testimony to Congress on Wednesday with investors looking for further clues about whether another 75-basis-point rate hike is on the cards in July.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the Fed will deliver a 75-basis-point interest rate hike next month, followed by a half-percentage-point rise in September, and won’t scale back to quarter-percentage-point moves until November at the earliest. read more

Most other global central banks are in a similar situation, apart from the Bank of Japan, which last week pledged to maintain its policy of ultra-low interest rates. In contrast, the Czech central bank was expected to hike its rates by an eyewatering 125 bps later with inflation there well into double figures.

That gap between low interest rates in Japan and rising U.S. rates has weighed on the yen , which hit a new 24-year low of 136.71 per dollar in Asian trading, before drifting firmer to 136.20.

Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s April policy meeting released Wednesday showed the central bank’s concerns over the impact the plummeting currency could have on the country’s business environment. read more

The other big move was in commodity markets. The 4% slump in oil prices came amid the recession concerns and with U.S. President Joe Biden expected on Wednesday to call for a temporary suspension of the 18.4-cents a gallon federal tax on gasoline, a source briefed on the plan told Reuters.

Brent dropped $5 to $109.79 a barrel, while U.S. crude fell 5.9% or $5.37 to $104.15.

“The latest in a long line of attempts to temper surging prices at the pumps is having the desired effect. Yet whether this knee-jerk reaction will stand the test of time is by no means guaranteed,” said PVM’s Stephen Brennock, pointing to an expected summer demand surge.

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Additional reporting by Sam Byford in Tokyo and Shadia Nasralla in Bengaluru

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Wall Street set for bounceback but recession risk keeps investors cautious

LONDON, June 21 (Reuters) – Wall Street was set to open higher on Tuesday and European shares were set for a second day of gains, recovering slightly from last week’s 17-month lows, but major central banks’ rate hike plans and global recession risks kept investors cautious.

World stocks have edged higher so far this week, recovering from last week’s sharp selloff which saw global equities tumble to their lowest since November 2020 as expectations for central bank policy tightening to combat high inflation prompted investors to ditch risky assets.

At 1110 GMT on Monday, the MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 50 countries, was up 0.4% on the day (.MIWD00000PUS).

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Europe’s STOXX 600 was up 0.8% (.STOXX) and London’s FTSE 100 was up 0.7% (.FTSE).

U.S. markets, which were closed on Monday for a holiday, were set to open higher, with S&P 500 e-minis and Nasdaq futures both up by 1.7% , .

Still, analysts expect the bounceback to be short-lived. Timothy Graf, head of macro strategy for EMEA at State Street Global Markets, said the move higher was likely a result of markets being oversold in recent weeks and relief that event risks, such as the Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank meetings, have passed.

“I think it’s a pause in what is still a trend where you have this rising probability of slowing growth, high inflation – stagflation potentially – outcome,” he said.

“Equity markets and the earnings prospects for corporates I don’t think have really taken that on board.”

Goldman Sachs said it now thinks there is a 30% chance of the U.S. economy tipping into a recession over the next year, up from its previous forecast of 15%. read more

Germany’s BDI industry association slashed its economic forecast for 2022 and said that a halt in Russian gas deliveries would make recession in Germany inevitable. read more

Earlier in the session, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s governor Philip Lowe signalled more rate increases and said that inflation was expected to reach 7% by the end of the year. read more

European bond yields rose, with the benchmark 10-year German yield up 12 basis points on the day at 1.78% .

In currency markets, the euro was up 0.4% at $1.05515, while the U.S. dollar index was down 0.2% on the day at 104.07 .

The U.S. 10-year yield was at 3.2844% , down from last week’s peak of 3.495% – its highest since 2011 – which came the same day the Fed raised interest rates by a massive 75 basis points.

The Japanese yen, which has fallen sharply in recent months, dropped further to $135.97 – the yen’s weakest since 1998.

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that the central bank should maintain its current ultra-loose monetary policy. This makes it an outlier among other major central banks. read more

Oil prices rose as investors focused on tight supplies of crude and fuel products. Brent crude futures were up 1.1% at $115.38 while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 1.4% at $111.13 . read more

Gold was little changed at around $1,832.6 an ounce.

Bitcoin was up around 3% on the day at $21,173, having stabilised slightly since it plunged to as low as $17,592.78 at the weekend . Cryptocurrencies have increasingly become a metric of risk appetite, State Street’s Graf said.

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Reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft; Editing by Louise Heavens and Chizu Nomiyama

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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