The S&P 500 rose to its highest level in five months on Thursday as better-than-expected Meta results further improved sentiment around technology shares, which led the market lower last year.
The broader market index jumped 1.4%, or its best level since August. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced about 3% to its highest level since September. The gains come ahead of a trio of Big Tech results after the bell in Apple, Amazon and Alphabet.
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed, falling 102 points, or about 0.3%. The major index was dragged by Merck shares after the pharmaceutical firm issued a weak outlook in its latest earnings results, despite beating estimates on the top and bottom lines.
Meta surged more than 25% in its best day since 2013 after reporting a fourth-quarter beat on revenue and announcing a $40 billion stock buyback. That helped investors look past losses in the business unit overseeing the metaverse.
Other mega-cap tech stocks rose on the back of those results. Shares of Google-parent Alphabet were up more than 6%, while Amazon jumped more than 6%. Apple shares gained more than 3%.
Tech stocks have outperformed in 2023, buoyed by recent signals of cooling inflation that investors expect could lead to a pause from the Federal Reserve in its aggressive rate hiking campaign. The S&P 500 information technology sector is up more than 14% this year after a decline of more than 28% last year.
“It’s showing that growth is outperforming value as it unwinds some of the pressures that hawkish rhetoric brought to risk markets over the course of 2022,” said Keith Buchanan, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investments.
Wall Street is coming off a winning session after the Fed on Wednesday announced a 0.25 percentage point interest rate hike. While the central bank gave no indication of an upcoming pause in rate hikes, investors were encouraged by the smaller increase and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments recognizing easing inflation.
Traders are awaiting the latest jobs report Friday that will give further insight into the labor market. Any signs of cooling could suggest to investors that further rate hikes are off the table.
Mark Zuckerberg, chief executive officer of Meta Platforms Inc., center, departs from federal court in San Jose, Calif., on Dec. 20, 2022.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
With one simple slogan, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg temporarily quelled investor discontent with his company’s multibillion-dollar investment into the futuristic metaverse.
“Our management theme for 2023 is the ‘Year of Efficiency’ and we’re focused on becoming a stronger and more nimble organization,” Zuckerberg said as part of the release of Meta’s fourth-quarter earnings report.
Following a 64% plunge in Meta’s share price in 2022, Wall Street cheered the report, sending the stock up almost 20%, extending a rally that began late last year. Based on after-hours pricing, Meta is trading at its highest since July.
Growth is not what’s getting investors excited. Meta reported better-than-expected revenue in the fourth quarter, but sales still sank 4% from a year earlier, marking the third straight quarterly decline. And the forecast range for the first quarter suggests that year-over-year revenue could increase, but it could also fall again.
Rather, Zuckerberg’s commitment to cost cuts and efficiency is a sign that increasing profitability is important to Meta, which was known as a growth machine prior to last year’s slump.
“The first 18 years I think we grew it 20%, 30% compound or a lot more every year,” Zuckerberg said on the earnings call. “And then obviously that changed very dramatically in 2022, where our revenue was negative for growth, for the first time in the company’s history.”
In looking to the future, Zuckerberg struck a realistic tone.
“We don’t anticipate that that’s going to continue,” he said, regarding the recent drop in revenue. “But I also don’t think it’s going to go back to the way it was before.”
Meta lowered its estimates for total expenses in 2023 to be in the range of $89 billion to $95 billion, down from its prior outlook of $94 billion to $100 billion. In November, the company announced it would lay off over 11,000 workers, or 13% of its staff.
Zuckerberg said Meta will be more “proactive on cutting projects that aren’t performing or may no longer be crucial” and that it will emphasize “removing layers of middle management to make decisions faster.”
Meta is also reducing spending as it builds new data centers that are intended to be more efficient while still able to power the company’s various artificial intelligence technologies. Capital expenditures are now expected to be in the range of $30 billion to $33 billion for 2023 instead of $34 billion to $37 billion.
Zuckerberg is selling investors on a story they want to hear, acknowledging that the company got bloated and needed more financial discipline. One of Zuckerberg’s top deputies, technology chief Andrew “Boz” Bosworth, wrote a personal essay just a few days ago echoing that sentiment.
Still, Meta has plenty of challenges ahead, in terms of both costs and reviving its core ad business.
Meta’s Reality Labs unit, which is responsible for developing the nascent metaverse, lost $13.7 billion in 2022. Finance chief Susan Li told analysts that the company isn’t planning for any reduction in that unit anytime soon. Zuckerberg still sees it as the company’s future.
Digital advertising, meanwhile, is suffering from a struggling economy, and Li gave no indication that companies are planning to dramatically increase their spending in 2023.
Meta has also yet to recover from Apple’s 2021 iOS privacy update that made it harder to target users with ads. Li said the company has been improving its online advertising system, but Apple’s update is “still certainly an absolute headwind to our revenue number.”
During the question and answer part of the call, Zuckerberg was asked about Meta’s progress in generative artificial intelligence, which has become the latest hot thing in Silicon Valley. His answer indicated that Meta is pursuing opportunities there, but will be cautious in how quickly it proceeds. Running these programs is expensive, and Meta needs to ensure it can develop them affordably, he said.
Zuckerberg said that while Meta is researching how best to incorporate the new technology, he wants “to be careful not to get too ahead of the development of it.”
Correction: Meta’s earnings report and CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s comments occurred after the market close on Wednesday. An earlier version misstated the day.
WATCH:Meta grows in daily active users, shares pop on revenue beat
Meta Platforms Inc. shares soared in after-hours trading Wednesday despite an earnings miss, as the Facebook parent company guided for potentially more revenue than Wall Street expected in the new year and promised more share repurchases amid cost cuts.
Meta
META,
+2.79%
said it hauled in $32.17 billion in fourth-quarter revenue, down from $33.67 billion a year ago but stronger than expectations. Earnings were $4.65 billion, or $1.76 a share, compared with $10.3 billion, or $3.67 a share, last year.
Analysts polled by FactSet expected Meta to post fourth-quarter revenue of $31.55 billion on earnings of $2.26 a share, and the beat on sales coincided with a revenue forecast that also met or exceeded expectations. Facebook Chief Financial Officer Susan Li projected first-quarter sales of $26 billion to $28.5 billion, while analysts on average were projecting first-quarter sales of $27.2 billion.
Shares jumped more than 18% in after-hours trading immediately following the release of the results, after closing with a 2.8% gain at $153.12.
Alphabet Inc.’s
GOOGL,
+1.61%
GOOG,
+1.56%
Google and Pinterest Inc.
PINS,
+1.56%
benefited from Meta’s results, with shares for each company rising 4% in extended trading Wednesday.
“Our community continues to grow and I’m pleased with the strong engagement across our apps. Facebook just reached the milestone of 2 billion daily actives,” Meta Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg said in a statement announcing the results. “The progress we’re making on our AI discovery engine and Reels are major drivers of this. Beyond this, our management theme for 2023 is the ‘Year of Efficiency’ and we’re focused on becoming a stronger and more nimble organization.”
Read more: Snap suffers worst sales growth yet in holiday quarter, stock plunges after earnings miss
Facebook’s 2 billion-user milestone was slightly better than analysts expected for user growth on Meta’s core social network. Daily active users across all of Facebook’s apps neared, but did not crest, another round number, reaching 2.96 billion, up 5% from a year ago.
Meta has been navigating choppy ad waters as it copes with increasing competition from TikTok and fallout from changes in Apple Inc.’s
AAPL,
+0.79%
ad-tracking system in 2021 that punitively harmed Meta, costing it potentially billions of dollars in advertising sales. Meta has invested heavily in artificial-intelligence tools to rev up its ad-targeting systems and making better recommendations for users of its short-video product Reels, but it laid off thousands of workers after profit and revenue shrunk in recent quarters.
The cost cuts seemed to pay off Wednesday. While Facebook missed on its earnings, it noted that the costs of its layoffs and other restructuring totaled $4.2 billion and reduced the number by roughly $1.24 a share.
Meta executives said they now expect operating expenses to be $89 billion to $95 billion this year, down from previous guidance for $94 billion to $100 billion. Capital expenditures are expected to be $30 billion to $33 billion, down from previous guidance of $34 billion to $37 billion, as Meta cancels multiple data-center projects.
In a conference call with analysts late Wednesday, Zuckerberg called 2023 the “year of efficiency.”
“The reduced outlook reflects our updated plans for lower data-center construction spend in 2023 as we shift to a new data-center architecture that is more cost efficient and can support both AI and non-AI workloads,” Li said in her outlook commentary included in the release.
Meta expects to increase its spending on its own stock. The company’s board approved a $40 billion increase in its share-repurchase authorization; Meta spent nearly $28 billion on its own shares in 2022, and still had nearly $11 billion available for buybacks before that increase.
“Investors are cheering Meta’s plans to return more capital to shareholders despite worries over rising costs related to its metaverse spending,” said Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com.
The results came a day after Snap Inc.
SNAP,
-10.29%
posted fourth-quarter revenue of $1.3 billion, flat from a year ago and the worst year-over-year sales growth Snap has ever reported. But they also arrived on the same day Facebook scored a major win in a California court. The company successfully fended off the Federal Trade Commission bid to win a preliminary injunction to block Meta’s planned acquisition of VR startup Within Unlimited.
Read more: Meta wins bid to buy VR startup Within Unlimited, beating U.S. FTC in court: report
Meta shares have plunged 53% over the past 12 months, while the broader S&P 500 index
SPX,
+1.05%
has tumbled 10% the past year.
Former President Trump’s campaign sent a letter to Facebook’s parent company, Meta, Tuesday petitioning them to unblock his Facebook account, a source familiar with the letter tells CNN.
Trump’s Facebook and Twitter accounts were blocked following the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol. Facebook initially said its ban of Trump would be indefinite. But after a public consultation and deliberation with experts, the company announced in June 2021 that Trump’s ban would be reassessed in January 2023, two years after the initial decision.
CNN reported last week that the decision to allow former President Donald Trump back on Facebook and Instagram, is being debated by a specially formed internal working group at the company, according to a person familiar with the deliberations.
Meta spokesperson Andy Stone told CNN the decision is set to be announced in the coming weeks. A Trump adviser said that reinstating the former president’s Facebook account would make it easier for the campaign to do outreach.
The letter, signed by Trump’s attorney, focused on free speech and requested a meeting with Meta to discuss reinstatement.
“Donald J. Trump is a declared candidate for President of the United States,” the letter, obtained by CNN, said. “We believe that the ban on President Trump’s account on Facebook has dramatically distorted and inhibited the public discourse.”
Democratic lawmakers on Capitol Hill sent a letter to Meta last month urging the company to keep Trump off its platforms, arguing Trump continues to attack American democracy by repeating lies about the 2020 election. Republicans, free speech advocates, and others argue maintaining the ban is an undue act of censorship and could put Trump at a disadvantage as a 2024 candidate.
A current Trump adviser said the former president has never used Facebook in the way he used Twitter, which became his primary medium for communicating with his political base as president before he was removed from the platform in the wake of the January 6 attack. Still, this person said, the Trump campaign would leap at the opportunity to resume using his likeness in its Facebook advertisements.
“It is the most important vehicle for fundraising and for reaching a lot of people in the persuadable audience,” the adviser said.
The process Meta is undertaking – publishing detailed posts and policy documents transparently outlining how it plans to make the high-stakes decision – is in stark contrast to what is happening at Twitter.
Twitter CEO Elon Musk reinstated Trump in November of last year, but the former president has yet to tweet. Trump aides have been discussing what a reentry to Twitter would look like, including how to “maximize” his first tweet.
– CNN’s Donie O’Sullivan contributed to this report
In the worst year for stocks since the Great Recession, several big names are headed for their worst year on record with just one trading day left in 2022.
The S&P 500 index
SPX,
+1.75%
and Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+1.05%
are both headed for their worst year since 2008, with declines of 20.6% and 9.5% respectively through Thursday. But at least 19 big-name stocks — and half of another — are headed for a more ignominious title for 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data: Worst year ever.
Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
+8.08%
is having the worst year among the group of S&P 1500 constituents with a market capitalization of $30 billion or higher headed for record annual percentage declines. Tesla shares have declined 65.4% so far this year, which would be easily the worst year on record for the popular stock, which has only had one previous negative year since going public in 2010, an 11% decline in 2016.
Tesla may not be the worst decliner on the list by the time 2023 arrives, however, as another Silicon Valley company is right on its heels. Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
+4.01%,
the parent company of Facebook, has fallen 64.2% so far this year, as Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg has stuck to spending billions to develop the “metaverse” even as the online-advertising industry that provides the bulk of his revenue has stagnated. It would also only be the second year in Facebook’s history that the stock has declined, after a 25.7% drop in 2018, though shares did end Facebook’s IPO year of 2012 30% lower than the original IPO price.
Only one other stock could contend with Tesla and Meta’s record declines this year, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk has some familiarity with that company as well. PayPal Holdings Inc.
PYPL,
+4.46%,
where Musk first found fame during the dot-com boom, has declined 63.2% so far this year as executives have refocused the company on attracting and retaining high-value users instead of trying to get as many users as possible on the payments platform. It would be the second consecutive down year for PayPal, which had not experienced that before 2021 since spinning off from eBay Inc.
EBAY,
+4.76%
in 2015.
None of the other companies headed for their worst year yet stand to lose more than half their value this year, though Charter Communications Inc.
CHTR,
+1.99%
is close. The telecommunications company’s stock has declined 48.2% so far, as investors worry about plans to spend big in 2023 in an attempt to turn around declining internet-subscriber numbers.
In addition to the list below, Alphabet Inc.’s class C shares
GOOG,
+2.88%
are having their worst year on record with a 38.4% decline. MarketWatch is not including that on the list, however, as Alphabet’s class A shares
GOOGL,
+2.82%
fell 55.5% in 2008; the separate class of nonvoting shares was created in 2012 to allow the company — then still called Google — to continue issuing shares to employees without diluting the control of co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page.
Apart from that portion of Alphabet’s shares, here are the 19 large stocks headed for their worst year ever, based on Thursday’s closing prices.
Company
% decline in 2022
Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
+8.08%
65.4%
Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
+4.01%
64.2%
PayPal Holdings Inc.
PYPL,
+4.46%
62.6%
Charter Communications Inc.
48.0%
Edwards Lifesciences Corp.
EW,
+2.87%
41.9%
ServiceNow Inc.
NOW,
+3.67%
39.9%
Zoetis Inc.
ZTS,
+3.00%
39.3%
Fidelity National Information Services Inc.
FIS,
+2.03%
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg demonstrates an Oculus Rift virtual reality (VR) headset and Oculus Touch controllers during the Oculus Connect 3 event in San Jose, California, U.S., on Thursday, Oct. 6, 2016.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Over a year after changing his company’s name to Meta and committing to spend billions of dollars developing the metaverse, Mark Zuckerberg’s bet on virtual reality is no closer to paying off.
Sales of VR headsets in the U.S. this year declined 2% from a year earlier to $1.1 billion as of early December, according to data shared with CNBC by research firm NPD Group. Facebook’s advertising business generates that much revenue about every three days.
With the ad business mired in a slump, Zuckerberg has been looking to VR devices and related technology to pull Meta into the future. But data from analyst firm CCS Insight reveals that worldwide shipments of VR headsets as well as augmented reality devices dropped more than 12% year over year to 9.6 million in 2022.
Taken together, the estimates of VR headset sales and shipments create a problematic picture for Meta, whose stock price has lost about two-thirds of its value this year. Zuckerberg has said he’s playing the long game with the metaverse, expecting it take up to a decade to go mainstream and projecting it will eventually host hundreds of billions of dollars in commerce.
It’s not just Meta. Numerous venture firms and other tech companies have wagered big over the past decade on a futuristic world of virtual work, education, fitness and sports.
Meta’s Quest 2 headset, released in 2020, is by far the leader in the VR market, according to several analysts. Competing devices from companies like Valve, HP and Sony represent a small fraction of the market.
Sales of Meta’s flagship Quest device dropped in 2022, a decline that can be attributed to the device’s big year in 2021, said Ben Arnold, NPD’s consumer electronics analyst.
“VR had an amazing holiday in 2021,” Arnold said, referring to various promotions that helped boost sales of the devices at a time when gaming consoles like Sony’s PlayStation 5 were in short supply. “It was a great time last year to get one of these products, and VR totally crushed it.”
VR headset revenue in the U.S. doubled in 2021 from about $530 million in 2020, according to NPD.
A confluence of factors contributed to lower sales and shipments in 2022.
The Quest 2 has been around for a few years and, like any consumer electronics device, has lost some appeal as it’s aged. And while Meta released a new VR headset in fall, the Quest Pro, that device is geared toward businesses and costs $1,100 more than the Quest 2, pushing it even further out of reach for many VR enthusiasts.
Meta decided over the summer to raise the price of the Quest 2 by $100, citing inflationary pressures.
Leo Gebbie, an analyst at CCS Insight, said in an email that Meta’s price increase was a surprise “given that the company has been willing to sell the headset at such a low margin to try and drive uptake of VR and gain a high market share.”
Meta declined to comment about its VR headset sales or third-party estimates.
All eyes on Apple
Next year is expected to be another “slow year” for the VR market, CCS Insight said in its latest report, citing a weak economy and inflation.
Gebbie said “consumer budgets will be tightening,” and “non-essential purchases like VR headsets are likely to be the casualty of this.”
Sony’s next-generation VR headset will cost $550 when it debuts in February. Arnold said that while the PlayStation VR2 will “give the market kind of a shot in the arm,” it will likely not influence the overall VR market as much as the Quest 2 because Sony’s device requires owners to have a PlayStation 5 as way to power the headset.
Sony PlayStation VR2 headset
Sony
“The total addressable market of the PSVR2 is going to be PlayStation owners,” Arnold said.
A major question for next year remains whether Apple, as long rumored, will unveil a VR headset.
Apple could create a compelling VR headset with an accompanying software ecosystem, Arnold said.
Additionally, Apple’s reputation as a leader in consumer technology could provide a spark to the dim VR market, making the technology more attractive to the general public.
“If one company has the ability to transform the VR market overnight, it’s Apple,” said Gebbie. “With its hugely loyal fanbase, many of whom are comfortable with spending large amounts of money on technology, if Apple was to launch a headset we expect that it would perform very well.”
Apple is reportedly building a VR headset with AR features for a release as soon as 2023.
Eric Abbruzzese, a research director at ABI Research, said Apple could have success launching a VR headset geared toward businesses, which would likely help lure developers to the community. But the high price of an enterprise VR headset, which would likely retail for several thousand dollars, would still make it difficult for Apple to move the needle, Abbruzzese said.
“It probably won’t even ship 5 million units in its first year,” Abbruzzese said of an Apple enterprise VR headset. “But it is the first notable product from a huge tech incumbent.”
Apple didn’t respond to a request for comment.
One major thing the VR world lacks is a breakout hit, or a killer app.
Some games have gotten traction, like the musical rhythm game Beat Saber and VR versions of popular titles like Resident Evil, Abbruzzese said. And some users are showing more interest in using VR for fitness activities.
But in the console market, blockbuster games like FIFA and Call of Duty are “shipping hundreds of millions of products,” he said.
Meanwhile Meta’s Horizon Worlds social VR platform is still in its experimental phase.
“The only metaverse product really is Horizon and it’s not good right now,” Abbruzzese said.
WATCH: Meta has a tremendous future if it can just stop making mistakes
Video game pioneer John Carmack is resigning from his consulting position at Meta with “mixed feelings” about the “end of his decade in VR,” he announced in a Facebook post Friday.
Carmack stuck around through the company’s more than $10 billion investment into virtual reality technology. And although he still believes in the potential value of VR, he questioned Meta’s efficiency, saying in his post that the company has a “ridiculous amount of people and resources, but we constantly self-sabotage and squander effort.”
“It has been a struggle for me,” Carmack wrote. “I have a voice at the highest levels here, so it feels like I should be able to move things, but I’m evidently not persuasive enough.”
Carmack was celebrated for his work developing Wolfenstein 3D, Quake and Doom, and co-founded video game company id Software. He was an early advocate for virtual reality, thought it was not uncommon for him to criticize Meta.
Carmack became CTO of Oculus in 2013. Meta bought Oculus VR in 2014 for $2 billion, and now sells the Meta Quest 2 and Quest Pro headsets. Cormack has stood by the headset, calling it a “good product” despite his “complaints” about the software.
“Successful products make the world a better place,” Cormack said. “It all could have happened a bit faster and been going better if different decisions had been made, but we built something pretty close to The Right Thing.”
Carmack still believes Meta is the company best positioned to integrate VR technology into the mainstream. CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced in October 2021 that he would take the company beyond social media and go all in on building the so-called metaverse -— but at a hefty cost.
“I think my influence at the margins has been positive, but it has never been a prime mover,” Carmack said.
When asked for comment, Meta pointed to Carmack’s post and a tweet from CTO Andrew Bosworth.
“It is impossible to overstate the impact you’ve had on our work and the industry as a whole,” Bosworth tweeted. “Your technical prowess is widely known, but it is your relentless focus on creating value for people that we will remember most. Thank you and see you in VR.”
Meta recently announced it is laying off 11,000 employees, the most significant job cuts in the tech giant’s history amid high inflation, rising interest rates and recession fears. Meta lost $9.4 billion in the first nine months of 2022 on its metaverse efforts and expects losses from the unit to “grow significantly year-over-year” in 2023.
– CNN’s Clare Duffy and Rachel Metz contributed to this report.
To build a fire — but not destroy the market by doing so. That’s the goal right now. It’s not as easy as in the famous Jack London short story (“Too Build a Fire”) where in the end the survivors profit rather than freeze to death in their sleep. In the early part of this decade, we saw the rise of Robinhood (HOOD) and the distribution of investments from the serious to the ephemeral. These days, Robinhood has the appearance of one gigantic bonfire of young peoples’ money. The gamification concept was real and the exodus of investors was noisy — culminating with the ridiculous self-immolation of GameStop (GME), AMC Entertainment (AMC) and the meme stocks. Those who fought this trend abandoned Twitter, hired bodyguards and tried to hide from the angry mob that was attempting to will stocks higher by savaging the sellers. No tinder from these clowns. Then there was the much larger-than-expected romp to crypto. The people who bought it somehow ensconced their brains into something they didn’t understand. As a result, they overran their brains and outsourced them to others who claimed to know more than they did. You had to oppose a phalanx of vociferous, self-promoting scoundrels and their fintech allies in government and venture capital — all of whom should feel shame, but shame eludes them. They will not accept their intellectual disgrace, and instead continue to argue that it was all about blockchain and DeFi (decentralized finance). They want to explain to you why they got it right and you got it wrong, even as they lost everything and you were safe keeping your cash at JPMorgan. I wish I had a hubris scale, something like a gigantic thermometer that could measure these arrogant promoters and give them the hook when they contend that they are smarter than you for believing in something with a best-use case as untraceable ransom money. But this era is running out. It’s going to be done with a fight, of course, as we see its representatives defend themselves with specious arguments that sound so self-serving and outright phony that even neutral minds are repelled and rebelling. The money furnace that was Robinhood burns blandly versus the napalm of crypto. The interests that defended crypto can’t go quietly because they will empty the coffers of their crypto banks and cause waves of bankruptcies; the $34 billion that we know of that was destroyed by Sam Bankman-Fried — the disgraced former boss of failed crypto exchange FTX — pretty much propped up everything. We keep getting stung by the alleged due diligence done by so many who should have known better, with only a couple of institutions writing their investments to nothing, along with their explanations, or lack thereof. Here’s the problem: If it all goes away — crypto and all the institutions supporting it — the money that’s left won’t help push equity prices higher. It was once a magnet to a couple trillion dollars. Now I wonder if there’s $400 billion to the entire edifice. The whole thing reminds me of a line from the film “Beau Geste,” when two of the main characters are under attack: “You’ll do your duty better dead than you ever did alive.” The biggest guns are most likely liquidating as they talk, the duplicitous cads. They will tell us that we are fools not to believe in blockchain as if somehow that is dispositive to something other than lies and blunders. My point is this: The crypto con and the Robinhood dollar conflagration can’t produce enough money to buoy stocks. There’s not enough left in these embers to do anything but marvel at how much there used to be and how little bankruptcy produces. No matter how many hearings, we will never know the full culpability behind those in Congress and those in the Securities and Exchange Commission who opposed Chair Gary Gensler. He came on CNBC specifically to warn us of made-up coins and institutions that give you too high a return compared to cash in a real bank. Self-serving cryptocurrency players have been critical of the SEC. They want to school Gensler and let him know he can only go so far before running into all the well-endowed entities and their secret paid supporters. The horror! The horror! So where else will the money come from? Unlike the chimerical trillions that vanished into thin crypto air, the fuel will come from four stocks that have a combined total of $6 trillion to donate: Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN). There is simply too much money in these names to take us higher, or at least how high we can go after the Federal Reserve’s next meeting this week. But I think some of that investor money will be transferred into the stocks of companies that have the most voracious buybacks. Those are the companies without enough stock available to handle all the money that will flood in. Money in those four stocks will be pulled out, kicking and screaming, until the valuations become earthly — better than Meta Platforms (META) and more like the S & P as they are revealed to be mortal. Not until then can the rally start in earnest. Can these valuations be played out? It’s happening as you read this. Of course, there’s one other enemy to the advance and it’s a powerful one: The 4.5% yield from 2-year Treasuries is outrageously bountiful in a market where anything north of 4% in equities is likely tied to plummeting oil. However, we cling to the oils, betting that they can maintain their well above market prices when Russia can’t produce its endless reserves and China goes voracious upon reopening. I think we will win. We will hold Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon , even as we’ve trimmed them higher. Their spiral down to earth, however, will be painful. If we hadn’t sold some, it would be getting late in the game. But I suspect there’s more pain to come. Why take it? Because these companies still have value, even though it won’t surface until the selling’s done and we don’t know when that will occur. It’s too dangerous now to depart, although Apple could see $120 and Microsoft a 10-point decline. Amazon and Alphabet control their own destinies through headcount reductions. The good news? The selling could end after the Fed meeting. The bad news: If it does, there will not be enough rocket fuel. The big four need to shed a trillion minimum to power things higher. I think it will happen in time. Which would mean a brutal week until the transfer begins to be made. Hold on to what you have, but get ready to be lifted by the stocks with the strongest buybacks. That’s where the accumulation will matter the most. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Satya Nadella, chief executive officer of Microsoft Corp., during the company’s Ignite Spotlight event in Seoul, South Korea, on Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2022. Nadella gave a keynote speech at an event hosted by the company’s Korean unit.
SeongJoon Cho | Bloomberg | Getty Images
To build a fire — but not destroy the market by doing so.
That’s the goal right now. It’s not as easy as in the famous Jack London short story (“Too Build a Fire”) where in the end the survivors profit rather than freeze to death in their sleep.
In the early part of this decade, we saw the rise of Robinhood (HOOD) and the distribution of investments from the serious to the ephemeral. These days, Robinhood has the appearance of one gigantic bonfire of young peoples’ money. The gamification concept was real and the exodus of investors was noisy — culminating with the ridiculous self-immolation of GameStop (GME), AMC Entertainment (AMC) and the meme stocks. Those who fought this trend abandoned Twitter, hired bodyguards and tried to hide from the angry mob that was attempting to will stocks higher by savaging the sellers. No tinder from these clowns.
The market is so possessed by tech that it can’t see the forest through the industrials. If the discourse isn’t about the slowdown in the cloud, it’s about who is pulling out of the now-private Twitter, or how disappointing it is that co-CEO Bret Taylor left Salesforce (CRM). Meta Platforms ‘ (META) Mark Zuckerberg could sneeze and Amazon (AMZN) CEO) Andy Jassy cough and it’s a bigger deal than United Airlines ‘ (UAL) order for 100 Dreamliners from Boeing (BA). We don’t pay much attention to the industrials anymore. There aren’t that many of them. We are used to them being hostage to so many forces of negativity that they just aren’t worth our focus. That’s wrong. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has done so much better than the average semiconductor company, or even the above-average enterprise software company that it’s insane that we even focus on some of the latter. The 600 companies formed in the last two years rent too much of your brain space even in passing. Advertising, which turned out to be the Achilles heel of everything internet and media, just seems to have vanished. There’s not enough of it to feed the mouths of all of the players and nobody seems to be able to reach the 18- to 24-year-olds with whatever they spend. So they are shelling out a fraction of what they used to spend. It’s so bad that we cheer when a semiconductor company like Marvell Technology (MRVL), guides down and it only edges the stock down slightly. That gives the market hope that some of the inventory glut for chips is near its end. In the meantime, the unheralded industrials gap up on any S & P 500 run, where there never seems enough stock ahead to where you find sellers. I will go into the ones that intrigue — but first, let me just say that the biggest problem with so many of these techs is that there is so much supply at every level. Someone is always a seller. There’s always merchandise up a penny. And it is sizable. The orders, if you could hear them would be something like, “sell 50,000 shares every five cents thereabout for the next dollar and then I will reload when I get my report if there is enough time left at the end of the day. I don’t want to hurt the stock too much because I have so much behind it.” There is endless selling in anything related to the cloud and it isn’t just from the price target reductions. It is from insiders who sense that the era is over and they all compete with each other now, even Amazon, Alphabet (GOOGL) and Meta get that. When the biggest issue with Meta is how much time is Zuckerberg really working on his alleged metaverse pipedream, instead of the highly profitable but slow-growing Instagram, you know you are way too deep in the weeds. Now I want you to hit up the stock of Caterpillar (CAT). When you are in the deep stages of a Federal Reserve interest rate tightening I would normally say that this may be the single best short in the book. Shorting a stock means betting it will go down. But not this time. There is no way CAT can meet its orders. Every industry needs more of what they make, whether it be coal because Europe has taken so many nuclear plants offline and natural gas has risen so much in price, or earthmovers needed for all the roads that are about to be built in this country because of the Democrat’s infrastructure bill, which favors domestic product. Meanwhile, its raw costs are going LOWER. Caterpillar de-emphasized China and emphasized oil and gas. While the public companies have cut back the pace of drilling, the private equity companies are drilling like mad to cover cash flow. Take a look at how CAT acts on up days. There is none for sale. None. A decent day and it always seems like Caterpillar’s stock has rallied three points. Why not; there are 527 million shares outstanding, down 20 million shares. What enterprise software company can say that? There are no stock base compensation issues. Stock is precious. CAT sells at 17 times REAL earnings, not FAKE or MADE UP earnings. That’s what we really should call the shameless non-GAAP adjusted earnings-per-share nonsense we get from these West coasters, which seems a lot like what General Electric (GE) was doing before its collapse. I bet an order to buy 100,000 shares of Caterpillar moves it 2 points. In a year when the S & P 500 dropped 14%, CAT has gained 14% year to date. Not to mention it has an annual dividend yield of 2%. Last week, I met with Emerson Electric (EMR) CEO Lal Karsanbhai. He’s turning this old-line but excellent valve and home appliance maker into a company that digitizes your hardware, that automates your plants while cutting out waste. In less than two years, Karsanbhai has sold slow-growing divisions, bought faster-growing businesses, and joint-ventured others in ways that the arrogant software types can only dream of doing. Like Caterpillar’s stock, EMR is straight up: 4% higher year-to-date. But in the past three months, shares are up 18.5%. I think the idea of bringing in an Emerson to innovate, automate and become cleaner — it also has a huge business in environmental improvement — is one of the first calls I would make if I ran an industrial. It’s an 18 times earnings stock. Anything that happens to Boeing, I am always bittersweet about. We sold some high, we sold some low, but most importantly we were just annoyed by its constant errors. We wanted to play aerospace, though, with so much travel, so we did it with Honeywell (HON). Here’s another story that just never stops ceases to amaze. Another reconfigured company with chemicals that clean the refining process, machines that automate factories, climate controls, and some of the most important parts of an airplane including the cockpit, for not just Boeing but Airbus. Honeywell stock sells at 25 times earnings but its growth is accelerating and it has cash and a balance sheet that is ready to be put to work for anything needed. HON is another one that’s up 5% year to date and more than 17% in the past three months. We know that we have gone through arsenals of low-tech military equipment as has NATO. But this big appropriation boost last week is going to give Raytheon Technologies (RTX) orders it needs to raise numbers for 2023. The anti-missile products that Raytheon specializes in are what I think are now headed to NATO members to do what they want with them, which means take them to Ukraine to defend against the now-nine-month invasion by Russia. Meanwhile, Raytheon’s aerospace, both military and commercial, have too many orders to handle. After some re-configuring as part of the merger between United Technologies and Raytheon, the buyback is in place. The only thing holding this company back is a lack of engineers. Can the people out West learn military engineering? They better learn to do so. RTX is up 17% year to date. I could include so many companies like these, Eaton Corporation (ETN) for pumps, valves and what you need for electrical vehicle charging; Illinois Tool Works (ITW) for equipment like welding, the growth portion of autos, and polymers, and all sorts of in high demand products; or Agilent Technologies (A), a test and measurement company for all sorts of industries that require precision and pinpoint accuracy. You can’t just own these. You won’t know when they stop going straight up. And you can’t just buy them. Jeff Marks, portfolio director for the Investing Club, and I went at it last week when I said that we have to, just have to own Emerson as fast as we can. But one look at the stock tells us that it’s just gone too far too fast. The thing is, they all have. I say let’s take a serious break from the software companies that were claimed to have eaten everything else for breakfast and start discussing the real winners since the November pivot — the companies that were supposed to collapse that, instead, have reinvented themselves and are part of the new industrial economy that’s been automated and digitized and doesn’t need customer relations management because it has too many customers. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long CRM, META, AMZN, GOOGL and HON. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. 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Jim Cramer at the NYSE, June 30, 2022.
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The market is so possessed by tech that it can’t see the forest through the industrials. If the discourse isn’t about the slowdown in the cloud, it’s about who is pulling out of the now-private Twitter, or how disappointing it is that co-CEO Bret Taylor left Salesforce (CRM). Meta Platforms‘ (META) Mark Zuckerberg could sneeze and Amazon (AMZN) CEO) Andy Jassy cough and it’s a bigger deal than United Airlines‘ (UAL) order for 100 Dreamliners from Boeing (BA).
Meta (formerly Facebook) corporate headquarters is seen in Menlo Park, California on November 9, 2022.
Josh Edelson | AFP | Getty Images
Popular tax prep software including TaxAct, TaxSlayer and H&R Block sent sensitive financial information to Facebook parent company Meta through its widespread code, known as a pixel, that helps developers track user activity on their sites, an investigation by The Markup found.
In a report published with The Verge on Tuesday, the outlet found the software sent information like names, email addresses, income information and refund amounts to Meta. The Markup discovered the data trail through a project earlier this year with Mozilla Rally called “Pixel Hunt,” where participants installed a browser extension that sent the group a copy of data shared with Meta through its pixel.
“Advertisers should not send sensitive information about people through our Business Tools,” a Meta spokesperson told CNBC in a statement. “Doing so is against our policies and we educate advertisers on properly setting up Business tools to prevent this from occurring. Our system is designed to filter out potentially sensitive data it is able to detect.”
Meta considers potentially sensitive information to include information about income, loan amounts and debt status.
The Markup also found that TaxAct had transmitted similar financial information to Google via its analytics tool, though that data did not include names.
“Any data in Google Analytics is obfuscated, meaning it is not tied back to an individual and our policies prohibit customers from sending us data that could be used to identify a user,” a Google spokesperson told CNBC. “Additionally, Google has strict policies against advertising to people based on sensitive information.”
Representatives for the tax prep services did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
Read the full report on The Verge.
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