Tag Archives: Lael Brainard

Fed’s Mester says inflation hasn’t peaked and multiple half-point rate hikes are needed

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said Friday that she doesn’t see ample evidence that inflation has peaked and thus is on board with a series of aggressive interest rate increases ahead.

“I think the Fed has shown that we’re in the process of recalibrating our policy to get inflation back down to our 2% goal. That’s the job before us,” Mester said in a live interview on CNBC’s “The Exchange.”

“I don’t want to declare victory on inflation before I see really compelling evidence that our actions are beginning to do the work in bringing down demand in better balance with aggregate supply,” she added.

Mester spoke the same day the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by 390,000 in May, and, importantly, that average hourly earnings had increased 0.3% from a month ago, a bit lower than the Dow Jones estimate.

While other recent data points have shown that at least the rate of inflation increases has diminished, Mester said she will need to see multiple months in that trend before she’ll feel comfortable.

“It’s too soon to say that that’s going to change our outlook or my outlook on policy,” she said. “The No. 1 problem in the economy remains very, very high inflation, well above acceptable levels, and that’s got to be our focus going forward.”

Recent statements from the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee indicate that 50 basis point — or half-point — rate increases are likely at the June and July meetings. Officials are likely then to evaluate the progress that the policy tightening and other factors have had on the inflation picture.

But Mester said any type of pause in rate hikes is unlikely, though the magnitude of the increases could be reduced.

“I’m going to come into the September meeting, if I don’t see compelling evidence [that inflation is cooling], I could easily be at 50 basis points in that meeting as well,” she said. “There’s no reason we have to make the decision today. But my starting point will be do we need to do another 50 or not, have I seen compelling evidence that inflation is on the downward trajectory. Then maybe we can go 25. I’m not in that camp that we thinks we stop in September.”

Mester’s comments were similar to statements Thursday from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, who told CNBC that “it’s very hard to see the case” for pausing rate hikes in September. She also stressed that quashing inflation, with is running near 40-year highs, is the Fed’s top priority.

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Senate confirms Lael Brainard as Fed vice chair

U.S. Federal Reserve board member Lael Brainard speaks after she was nominated by U.S. President Joe Biden to serve as vice chair of the Federal Reserve, in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building’s South Court Auditorium at the White House in Washington, U.S., November 22, 2021.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

The U.S. Senate on Tuesday confirmed Lael Brainard to be the Federal Reserve’s next vice chair, a long-awaited step in her ascent to the highest ranks of the nation’s central bank that cements her position as a key deputy to Chair Jerome Powell.

Though the vote came down to a close 52-43 margin, her confirmation was unsurprising. Brainard won support from Democrats and a handful of Republicans, including Wyoming Sen. Cynthia Lummis.

The vote proved tighter than expected because both Sens. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., and Ron Wyden, D-Ore., tested positive for Covid-19 and were unable to offer their formal support.

Brainard’s promotion, expected for weeks, is unlikely to change the Fed’s plan to increase short-term interest rates. She has served on the central bank’s board for years. Brainard, Powell and other central bank officials have promised over the past few months to hike interest rates and otherwise pull back on monetary stimulus to stop prices from rising at their current pace.

Inflation’s rapid climb, and unease over the Fed’s plans to make it more expensive to borrow, have put financial markets on edge this year. The S&P 500, the broad market index that tracks the equity performance of the largest U.S. companies, has fallen more than 11% this year.

Policymakers “have decided they need to get out in front of the rise in inflation as soon as possible to correct the situation,” Steven Ricchiuto, chief U.S. economist at Mizuho Securities USA, wrote in a note to clients Tuesday morning.

“The question investors need to answer is: When will enough be enough when it comes to the number?” he added.

Outside of monetary policy, Brainard has made a habit of objecting to otherwise-unanimous motions at the Fed to roll back financial regulations. Over the past four years, she opposed a series of steps by the central bank to ease laws enacted after the financial crisis of 2008-2009.

Until her first objection in 2018, no Fed governor had dissented since 2011.

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Several other Fed nominees chosen by President Joe Biden are awaiting action in the Senate. The president has nominated Powell to a second term atop the central bank and has picked two economists, Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson to serve as governors on the Fed’s seven-person board.

Some analysts and economists say Jefferson and Cook might prefer more modest rate increases over time, but both said in their Senate confirmation hearings that they are committed to using interest rates to quell inflation.

The Fed aims to keep inflation around a 2% target, but a combination of disrupted supply chains, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and fierce consumer demand have pushed prices up more than 8% over the last 12 months.

A procedural vote on Cook’s nomination, which would allow Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., to end debate and advance her to a final confirmation vote, is set to occur later Tuesday afternoon.

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5 things to know before the stock market opens Wednesday, April 6

Here are the most important news, trends and analysis that investors need to start their trading day:

1. Stock futures sink in what would add to Tuesday’s drop on Fed worries

Traders on the floor of the NYSE, March 31, 2022.

Source: NYSE

U.S. stock futures dropped Wednesday as investors await more insight into what appears to be a Federal Reserve shifting to an even more aggressive monetary policy tightening path. Minutes from the Fed’s March meeting, which featured the first interest rate hike in more than three years, are out at 2 p.m. ET. The market sees at least 0.25% rate increases at all six of the remaining Fed meetings of the year, with bigger 0.5% rises possible in May and June. Fed Governor Lael Brainard, who normally favors loose policy and low rates, said Tuesday the central bank needs to act quickly and aggressively to drive down inflation. Those comments sent Wall Street lower and bond yields to near three-year highs again.

2. Bond yield rise, pushing up mortgage rates, driving down home loan demand

In fact, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages topped 5% on Tuesday. The rising rate environment sent total home loan application volume down another 6% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That’s down 41% from the same week a year ago.

3. Oil CEOs, Yellen to testify at separate hearings on Russia-Ukraine war

Oil prices remained elevated Wednesday on supply concerns as the U.S. and its European allies consider more sanctions against Moscow as allegations emerge about wartime atrocities by Russian troops in Ukraine. The head of the European Council said Russia oil and gas sanctions needed sooner or later. Higher crude prices have, in turn, pushed gasoline prices higher. The CEOs of oil companies, including Chevron and Exxon, are set to testify Wednesday before a House panel about what they’re doing to control energy costs. At another House hearing, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is set to talk about the global impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the global economy.

4. JetBlue tops Frontier with $3.6 billion all-cash offer for Spirit Airlines

A Spirit Airlines plane on the tarmac at the Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport on February 07, 2022 in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

Joe Raedle | Getty Images

JetBlue Airways made an unsolicited $3.6 billion all-cash offer for Spirit Airlines, raising questions about Spirit’s deal to combine with rival discount carrier Frontier Airlines. Spirit said its board was evaluating JetBlue’s proposal, which is 33% higher than Frontier’s stock-and-cash offer. Trading in Spirit shares was halted before Tuesday’s market close after the stock spiked more than 22%. Spirit’s shares were lower in Wednesday’s premarket. Frontier was also lower in the premarket.

5. Musk spent $2.64 billion on Twitter shares so far this year, filing shows

Elon Musk talks at the Automotive World News Congress at the Renaissance Center in Detroit, Michigan.

Rebecca Cook | Reuters

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been buying Twitter shares on almost a daily basis since the end of January, spending $2.64 billion for his current stake in the company, according to a regulatory filing Tuesday. The disclosure came in a 13D, which confirms Musk’s intentions to be more active in Twitter’s business. He was announced as a new board member earlier Tuesday. Twitter also confirmed it’s testing an edit button, which was the subject of a Musk Twitter poll Monday, hours after a filing revealed he had acquired an over 9% stake in the social network.

— CNBC reporters Jeff Cox, Diana Olick, Leslie Josephs, Lora Kolodny and Jordan Novet as well as The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

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Biden to nominate Sarah Bloom Raskin as vice chair for supervision at Fed

Sarah Bloom Raskin, in her role as Deputy Treasury Secretary at the Treasury Department in Washington, October 2, 2014.

Yuri Gripas | Reuters

President Joe Biden will nominate Sarah Bloom Raskin to be the Federal Reserve’s next vice chair for supervision, arguably the nation’s most powerful banking regulator, according to people familiar with the matter.

Biden will also nominate Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson to serve as Federal Reserve governors, according to the people, who asked not to be named in order to speak freely.

Each nominee will in the coming weeks face questioning from the Senate Banking Committee, the congressional body in charge of vetting presidential appointments to the central bank. Should the Senate confirm their nominations, Cook would be the first Black woman to serve on the Fed’s board while Jefferson would be the fourth Black man to do so.

That committee on Tuesday held a nomination hearing for Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whom Biden chose to nominate to a second term. The committee held a similar hearing for Fed Governor Lael Brainard on Thursday, whom Biden picked to be the central bank’s next vice chair.

In choosing Raskin for the vice chair for supervision post, Biden looks to make good on Democrats’ promises to reinforce laws passed in the aftermath of the financial crisis and restore aspects of a rule named for former Fed Chair Paul Volcker that had restricted banks’ ability to trade for their own profit.

Raskin has experience at the Fed and served as a governor at the central bank from 2010 to 2014 before serving as deputy secretary of the Treasury under the Obama administration. She is married to Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md.

Powell and Brainard are both expected to clear the Senate without fanfare and with bipartisan support, but Raskin, Cook and Jefferson could see tougher confirmation odds. Pennsylvania Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, the ranking member of the Banking committee, was quick to pan Biden’s latest choices.

“Sarah Bloom Raskin has specifically called for the Fed to pressure banks to choke off credit to traditional energy companies and to exclude those employers from any Fed emergency lending facilities,” he said in a statement Thursday evening. “I have serious concerns that she would abuse the Fed’s narrow statutory mandates on monetary policy and banking supervision to have the central bank actively engaged in capital allocation.”

“I will closely examine whether Ms. Cook and Mr. Jefferson have the necessary experience, judgment, and policy views to serve as Fed Governors,” he added.

While Jefferson’s name had more recently come up in closed-door discussions to serve as a governor, Cook’s nomination was well telegraphed. CNBC reported in May that she was the top choice of Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Banking Committee’s chairman and an Ohio Democrat, to serve as a governor.

Cook is a professor of economics and international relations at Michigan State University. She is also a member of the steering committee at the Center for Equitable Growth, a progressive Washington-based think tank that counts several of Biden’s top economists among its alumni. She also served as a senior economist in the Obama administration’s Council of Economic Advisors.

Jefferson, meanwhile, is vice president for academic affairs and dean of faculty at Davidson College. His decadeslong career in academics has focused on labor markets and poverty.

Notable works of his include a 2005 study that evaluated the costs and benefits of monetary policy that promotes a “high-pressure economy” in which the Fed allows easier access to cash and lower interest rates to spur tighter labor markets.

He and other economists, including Brainard, have argued – in general and barring extraordinary economic conditions – that the added benefits of lower rates on maximum employment is worth the potential for warmer inflation.

Raskin and regulation

Since leaving the government, Raskin has pressed the Fed and other financial regulators to take a more proactive role to address the financial risks posed by climate change.

“While none of its regulatory agencies was specifically designed to mitigate the risks of climate-related events, each has a mandate broad enough to encompass these risks within the scope of the instruments already given to it by Congress,” Raskin wrote in September.

“In light of the changing climate’s unpredictable – but clearly intensifying – effects on the economy, U.S. regulators will need to leave their comfort zone and act early before the problem worsens and becomes even more expensive to address,” she added.

Former Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles, who recently left the Fed, played a major role in reducing capital requirements for U.S. banks with less than $700 billion in assets and relaxing the Volcker Rule’s audit rules for trades made by JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and other investment banks.

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Fed officials in favor of an easier regulatory stance argue the industry is well-capitalized and not in need of some of the more restrictive measures enacted in the wake of the crisis.

Many Democrats, including Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, have pushed back and said rollbacks leave the banking sector more vulnerable to shocks and liable to excess risk taking.

Inflation battle

The nominations come at a precarious time for the Fed, which has in recent weeks has started to wind down its easy-money policies in the face of recovering employment and the highest level of year-over-year inflation since 1982.

In times of normal economic activity, the Fed adjusts short-term interest rates to maximize employment and stabilize prices.

When the Fed wants the economy to heat up, it can cut borrowing costs to spur the housing market and broader economic activity as well as employment. But if it is concerned about an overheating economy or unruly inflation, it can raise interest rates to make borrowing more expensive.

In times of economic emergency, the central bank can also tap broader powers and purchase vast quantities of bonds to keep borrowing costs low and boost financial markets with easy access to cash. It did so in 2020 with the arrival of the Covid-19 pandemic, a move that worked to pacify traders and soothe companies concerned about liquidity.

Bond yields fall as their prices rise, meaning that those purchases forced rates lower. But ending those types of emergency-era liquidity measures — and the prospect of higher rates — can have the opposite effect on markets.

The release of the Fed’s latest meeting minutes earlier in January, which showed several officials in favor of cutting the balance sheet and raising rates soon, sparked a sell-off on Wall Street.

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5 things to know before the stock market opens Thursday, Jan. 13

Here are the most important news, trends and analysis that investors need to start their trading day:

1. Wall Street looks a bit higher after Nasdaq’s 3-day winning streak

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, January 12, 2022.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

U.S. stock futures rose slightly Thursday ahead of what’s expected to be another hot inflation report. The Nasdaq edged higher Wednesday, led by tech stocks rebounding for a third straight session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 eked out gains for a second day in a row, with each ending Wednesday less than 1.5% away from last week’s record closes. The Nasdaq has more work to do to dig out from its recent slide, finishing Wednesday 5.4% away from its latest record close in November.

  • Looking ahead, global alternative asset management firm TPG is set to debut on the Nasdaq on Thursday, the morning after pricing its initial public offering at $29.50 per share, the middle of the expected range.
  • Moderna expects to report data by March from its Covid vaccine trials involving children aged 2 to 5. If the study is supportive, the company said it would then file for emergency approval for vaccinating that age group. Moderna shares were modestly lower in the premarket.

2. Delta Air Lines reports strong earnings, revenue; shares rise

Delta Air Lines airplanes at the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S., on Tuesday, Dec. 21, 2021.

Elijah Nouvelage | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Delta Air Lines shares rose more than 1.5% in the premarket after the carrier on Thursday posted its highest quarterly revenue since late 2019, a better-than-expected $9.47 billion in the fourth quarter. Earnings of 22 cents per share also beat estimates, thanks in part to strong holiday bookings and more business travel. Delta said it expects a first-quarter loss, blaming the Covid omicron variant for higher costs and weaker-than-expected bookings. However, the airline still sees a travel demand rebound further down the road and a profit this year.

3. More hot inflation numbers expected; jobless claims seen steady

The government’s December data on the producer price index, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, is expected to show a year-over-year rise of 9.8%. The November PPI, a measure of wholesale inflation, rose 9.6% year over year at the fastest clip on record. Thursday’s report comes after December’s consumer price index rose 7% year over year at the quickest pace since June 1982. The response in the stock and bond markets was rather muted because while high, the CPI matched estimates.

Also at 8:30 a.m. ET, the Labor Department is scheduled to release its Thursday look at initial jobless claims. Economists expect a total of 200,000 first-time filings for unemployment benefits for the week ended Jan. 8. That would be down by 7,000 from the prior week, which showed data well anchored around a level that’s even lower than before the Covid pandemic, when new claims were averaging around 215,000.

4. Senate panel to hold hearing on Brainard’s Fed vice chair nomination

U.S. Federal Reserve board member Lael Brainard speaks after she was nominated by U.S. President Joe Biden to serve as vice chair of the Federal Reserve, in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building’s South Court Auditorium at the White House in Washington, U.S., November 22, 2021.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

The Senate Banking Committee holds a confirmation hearing at 10 a.m. ET on Thursday to consider Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard’s nomination to become the next Fed vice chair. In prepared remarks, Brainard said that controlling decades-high inflation is the “most important task” facing central bankers. Brainard’s prepared remarks stuck close to the monetary policy script used by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday at his confirmation hearing for a second term. He said the Fed will act as needed with higher interest rates and other measures to be sure inflation returns from its current highs to the central bank’s 2% target.

5. Biden to highlight the federal response to omicron surge

U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on voting rights during a speech on the grounds of Morehouse College and Clark Atlanta University in Atlanta, Georgia, January 11, 2022.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

President Joe Biden plans to deliver remarks Thursday about his administration’s “surge response” to spiking Covid cases due to the highly contagious omicron variant. Biden will highlight the federal government’s efforts to use military medical personnel, starting next week, to help hospitals hit by the dual problems of a crush of Covid patients and staffing shortages due to sick health-care workers. The president will also announce that six additional military medical teams will be deployed to Michigan, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio and Rhode Island.

— Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report. Follow all the market action like a pro on CNBC Pro. Get the latest on the pandemic with CNBC’s coronavirus coverage.

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Fed Vice Chair Clarida to step down early following scrutiny over his trades during pandemic

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said Monday he will be leaving his post with just a few weeks left on his term and amid revelations regarding his trading of stock funds.

In an announcement released Monday afternoon, Clarida said he will be stepping down from his post this Friday. His term expires on Jan. 31.

The move comes following additional disclosures regarding trades Clarida made in February 2020, around the time when the Fed was getting ready to roll out what eventually would become its most aggressive policy tools ever, in an effort to combat the Covid crisis.

“Rich’s contributions to our monetary policy deliberations, and his leadership of the Fed’s first-ever public review of our monetary policy framework, will leave a lasting impact in the field of central banking,” Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell said in a statement. “I will miss his wise counsel and vital insights.”

Clarida’s exit comes amid heightened scrutiny over what he had described as pre-planned portfolio rebalancing on Feb. 27, 2020. However, recent disclosures, first reported by the New York Times, showed that three days earlier, Clarida sold shares in three stock funds that he would repurchase on the 27th.

Markets dropped on Feb. 24 amid worries that the spreading coronavirus could cause substantial economic damage. On Feb. 26, Fed policymakers huddled to discuss what policy moves they might take to combat what eventually would become a full-blown pandemic.

Within weeks, the Fed would cut its benchmark interest rate to zero and institute an unprecedented array of lending and liquidity programs to help the economy and financial markets function.

Clarida’s announcement did not mention anything about the controversy, which has been a focal point of Fed criticism from Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) and some other lawmakers. Two regional Fed presidents, Eric Rosengren of Boston and Robert Kaplan of Dallas, both resigned following questions over their trading activities.

Clarida called serving on the Fed “a distinct honor and immense privilege” and noted the measures it took during the pandemic.

“I am proud to have served with my Federal Reserve colleagues as we, in a matter of weeks, put in place historic policy measures that, in conjunction with fiscal policy, steered the economy away from depression and that have supported a robust recovery in economic activity and employment since,” he said in a resignation letter to President Joe Biden. “There is still road left to walk and damage to be repaired.”

The resignation comes the same week Powell appears before a Senate committee for his confirmation hearing to a second term. That hearing will happen Tuesday. Two days later, Fed Governor Lael Brainard will face a hearing to be confirmed as vice chairman to take Clarida’s spot.

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Stock futures rise slightly as S&P 500 seeks to score a winning week

Stock futures edged up in overnight trading on Thursday as the S&P 500 aims to post a winning week.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 20 points. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both gained 0.1%.

The market rally appeared to have slowed down a bit near record levels even amid strong corporate earnings. Macy’s and Kohl’s both blew past analyst estimates in their quarterly earnings reports on Thursday.

So far this week, the blue chip Dow is down 0.6%, on pace for its second negative week in a row. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite are headed for modest gains, up 0.5% and 0.8% this week, respectively. The S&P 500 is on track for it sixth positive week in seven, sitting 0.3% below its all-time high.

More than 90% of the S&P 500 companies have handed in their financial results for the third quarter, and over 80% of them reported earnings better than Street’s expectations, according to Refinitiv. S&P 500 companies are on track to grow profit by 41.5% year over year.

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“Better than expected earnings has been the name of the game this week for the market,” Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E-Trade Financial. “While investors may have entered earnings season with some trepidation, there are some clear signs that consumers are resilient and corporate balance sheets are strong despite pricing pressures.”

On Thursday, investors digested U.S. jobless claims data that more or less matched expectations. Initial filings for unemployment insurance fell slightly to 268,000 for the week ending Nov. 13, the lowest level since March 2020, and the seventh straight weekly decline. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected them to have fallen to 260,000.

“With jobless claims hovering around pre-pandemic lows, the question now is will the momentum continue— both in terms of our economic recovery and market trajectory,” Loewengart said.

Investors are also keeping an eye on President Joe Biden’s pick for the next Federal Reserve chair, which is expected to unveil by the weekend. Many expect an even more dovish Fed if Lael Brainard is named the central bank chief, meaning it would take longer to raise interest rates or tighten policy than under Jerome Powell. 

In Washington, the House is trying to approve the $1.75 trillion Build Back Better economic package this week. The Senate then plans to take up the legislation after it returns from a Thanksgiving recess.

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