The Chiefs will host the Jaguars on Saturday afternoon to kick off the NFL divisional round, the league announced Sunday along with the rest of the round’s schedule. Here’s what you need to know:
Full schedule and how to watch
Saturday, Jan. 21
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs, 4:30 p.m. ET (NBC, Peacock, Universo)
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:15 p.m. ET (Fox, Fox Deportes)
Sunday, Jan. 22
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills, 3 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Dallas/Tampa Bay at San Francisco 49ers, 6:30 p.m. (Fox, Fox Deportes)
Conference championship game schedule
The NFL also released its schedule for the conference championship games.
Sunday, Jan. 29
NFC Championship Game, 3 p.m. ET (Fox, Fox Deportes)
AFC Championship Game, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The notorious Serby Crystal Ball that before this wild and wacky NFL season foresaw a Bills-49ers Super Bowl matchup has been dusted off just in time for the playoffs.
Much has changed for both teams, of course: Trey Lance (ankle) was lost Week 2 and Jimmy Garoppolo (foot) was lost Week 13 and the football world was introduced to Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy.
The Bills endured the emotional roller coaster of a near-tragedy to the uplifting, inspirational, heartwarming story of Damar Hamlin, who was remarkably released from the University of Cincinnati Medical Center on Monday, one week after suffering cardiac arrest making a tackle against the Bengals’ Tee Higgins.
Can the Bills be a Team of Destiny and win their first Super Bowl in five tries? Can Purdy be America’s Mr. Relevant? Can Tom Brady capture his eighth ring? Can Patrick Mahomes win his second? Will Joe Burrow be smoking postgame cigars?
The Serby Crystal Ball has it all in clear focus:
Super Wild Card Weekend
Saturday
Seahawks at 49ers
Geno Smith, meet Nick Bosa. Kenneth Walker III, meet Fred Warner. America, meet young Mr. Purdy, who won’t melt under the searing hot playoff lights. In two losses to the Niners, the Seahawks scored one offensive touchdown. And the Niners rushed for 189 (without Christian McCaffrey) and 170 yards.
49ers 31, Seahawks 17
The full bracket for the 2023 NFL playoffs.NY Post illustrationBrock Purdy won’t wilt in the bright lights of the NFL playoffs.USA TODAY Sports
Chargers at Jaguars
A matchup of Golden Boys at quarterback, Justin Herbert vs. Trevor Lawrence. Brandon Staley opted to go more Tom Coughlin than Brian Daboll in the regular-season finale and might have dodged a bullet because WR Mike Williams (back) should be good to go. Herbert has had Williams (ankle) and Keenan Allen (hamstring) together for only four games start-to-finish. If Joey Bosa (groin) is OK to team with Khalil Mack, the Bolts will enjoy an experience pass-rush edge over The Other Josh Allen and rookie Travon Walker. Forever Trevor will need Travis Etienne to go off against the 28th-ranked run defense.
Chargers 27, Jaguars 24
Sunday
Dolphins at Bills
The Tua Tagovailoa Dolphins stood toe-to-toe and snow-to-snow with the Bills in their last-second, 32-29 loss on Dec. 17. That was before Tua’s latest concussion woes. Will Tua be cleared? If not, expect Teddy Bridgewater (pinky) instead of rookie Skylar Thompson. The long-range forecast is sunny and balmy (28 degrees) with 8 mph winds, so Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle can eat. But Josh Allen threw for 4 TDs and ran for 77 yards last time.
Win one for Damar.
Bills 33, Dolphins 17
Giants at Vikings
Daniel Jones will be armed with confidence facing the league’s 31st-ranked passing defense. Saquon Barkley is rested and ready for the 20th-ranked rush defense. Brian Daboll and Wink Martindale are dangerous the second time they see an opponent (see Commanders). Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams will contain Dalvin Cook, and Wink won’t let Justin Jefferson (12-133-1 TD) and T.J. Hockenson (13-109-2 TDs) wreck the game this time. Xavier McKinney is back (Adoree’ Jackson too?). This time, Graham Gano, not Greg Joseph, walks it off.
Giants 27, Vikings 24
Ravens at Bengals
Ja’Marr Chase and the Bengals air game are in for a cage match with the Ravens.Getty Images
Their mantra Play Like A Raven is much easier when Lamar Jackson is the quarterback. He hasn’t practiced in five weeks (PCL). Burrow didn’t have Higgins in the early-season loss to Baltimore; he has him now alongside Ja’Marr Chase. The defending AFC champs have an eight-game win streak. The Ravens passing game never recovered from the trade of Hollywood Brown. The red zone has been a dead zone for them. If it’s Tyler Huntley or Anthony Brown at quarterback, everybody sing “Who Dey?” Let’s guess on a rusty Lamar return and a maniacal defense led by MLB Roquan Smith neutralizing Joe Mixon, and Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters limiting Chase and Higgins, and J.K. Dobbins and Mark Andrews doing enough in a vicious, chippy steel cage match.
Ravens 24, Bengals 21
Monday
Cowboys at Buccaneers
Brady (with his seven rings) is 7-0 against the Cowboys. Dak Prescott has a seven-game interception streak. Ezekiel Elliott hasn’t been eating much lately. Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence will be problems, but Brady will get the ball out quickly to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin against rookie corner DaRon Bland. Playoff Lenny Fournette can have success against 22nd-ranked rush defense, and if center Ryan Jensen (knee) can return, that would be a huge lift. Brady versus Dan Quinn … Falcons HC in Super Bowl 51 who blew that 28-3 lead to the GOAT, FWIW.
Bucs 24, Cowboys 21
Micah Parson and the Cowboys will be too much for Tom Brady & Co. to handle.USA TODAY Sports
Divisional Round
AFC
Ravens at Chiefs
Lamar ran for 107 yards and 2 TDs in a 36-35 win early in 2021 in Baltimore to beat Mahomes for the first time in four tries. Steve Spagnuolo and Chris Jones won’t let that happen again. Magic Mahomes no longer has Tyreek Hill and it doesn’t matter. Jerick McKinnon and Isaiah Pacheco give Andy Reid more balance, and while rookie safety Kyle Hamilton owns size and range, Travis Kelce will be too savvy for him. Kadarius Toney: 1 TD, 1 tweaked hamstring.
Chiefs 34, Ravens 17
Chargers at Bills
The long-range forecast is calling for light snow on Jan. 21 and snow Jan. 22. Austin Ekeler will need to be a passing-game weapon against the fifth-ranked rushing defense (104.6 yards). Allen, Devin Singletary and James Cook will lead a 150-yard rushing assault. Win one more for Damar.
Bills 33, Chargers 21
Devin Singletary and the Bills will rush their way through the Chargers.Getty Images
NFC
Giants at Eagles
It’s not easy beating a division rival three times in one season.
Davis Webb lobbies to start this one, citing his chemistry with Kenny Golladay, and Daboll tells the media that he will sit down with GM Joe Schoen and discuss everything on Friday night (eye roll). Anyway, a healthy Jalen Hurts and the top-ranked pass defense proves too much for Jones without a true No. 1 receiver, even though Barkley catches eight passes and totals 130 yards.
Eagles 27, Giants 17
Bucs at 49ers:
Brady versus his boyhood team. Brady versus Purdy. Brady’s last game as a Buc before leaving for Raiders? Brady’s last game before leaving for Fox? Purdy has George Kittle. Brady doesn’t have Gronk. Purdy has Kyle Shanahan. Brady does not. Demeco Ryans boasts the second-ranked (77.7 yards) rushing defense.
49ers 31, Bucs 17
NFC Championship
49ers at Eagles
Garoppolo beat the Eagles 17-11 at the Linc early in 2021. Will Purdy blink? Remember, cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry are no slouches. But if there is a team built to win physical battles on the road, it is these 49ers. Hurts will have some success against the Niner secondary targeting A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, but Warner, Dre Greenlaw and Arik Armstead will stifle Miles Sanders and make Nick Sirianni one-dimensional.
49ers 27, Eagles 24
AFC Championship
Bills vs. Chiefs
The next Allen-Mahomes dream showdown. An eerie environment at a neutral site — the halfway point between Buffalo and Kansas City is Indianapolis FYI. Gabe Davis won’t catch 4 TD passes against the Chiefs this time, but Stefon Diggs will haul in a couple against a group of young, inexperienced cornerbacks, including No. 1 draft pick Trent McDuffie. Last one with the ball wins. Allen is the last one with the ball.
Win another for Damar.
Bills 33, Chiefs 30
Josh Allen and the Bills will get over the hump this time and give Buffalo it’s long-awaited title.Getty Images
Super Bowl 2023
49ers-Bills
During the two weeks between the NFC Championship game and the Super Bowl, Shanahan ponders the same question that Bill Belichick pondered prior to Super Bowl 36: Brady or Drew Bledsoe? For Shanny, it’s Purdy or Garoppolo, whose foot has finally healed enough. And like Belichick, he stays with the hot hand.
But when Purdy suddenly develops the yips, Garoppolo is summoned off the bench and brings the Niners back from a first-half hole. McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel begin imposing their will on the night, and Marv Levy and Jim Kelly are sweating bullets in the owners’ box. But Allen, in his huddle at the start of a late fourth-quarter drive, looks up in the stands and says: “Hey look, it’s Will Smith and Chris Rock!” It eases the tension, and Allen engineers a 98-yard drive that culminates in him leaping over the end zone third-and-goal from the 3.
Quarterback Zach Wilson endured a torrid night before eventually being benched as the New York Jets were beaten 19-3 by the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday.
Wilson was booed at different points throughout the game before being replaced by Chris Streveler in the third quarter after completing just nine of 18 passes for 92 yards.
“I don’t blame them,” Wilson told reporters when asked about fans booing. We have a passionate fan base, and they’re here to watch us score touchdowns.
“We’re not scoring touchdowns, we’re not getting first downs, we’re not moving the ball and, obviously, we can’t throw the ball. Of course they’re going to be frustrated.”
As the rain poured down on a rainy night at the MetLife Stadium, Wilson looked out of sorts as the Jets slumped to a fourth successive defeat – another major blow to the franchise’s playoff hopes.
The No. 2 overall draft pick in 2021, Wilson has struggled for form during his two seasons at the Jets.
“I just felt like I didn’t have any rhythm out there,” added Wilson. “I was just trying to find some confidence out there on the field, just find something to get us going – a little spark. I couldn’t get anything there.”
Jets head coach Robert Saleh decided to replace Wilson with Streveler who had been elevated from the practice squad for Thursday’s game.
Streveler provided some moments of hope on his season debut, completing 10 of 15 passes for 90 yards.
“Obviously I know Zach was struggling, but Streveler came in, ran a couple of plays, sparked the offense, got the explosive play, and so it just snowballed in a good way, so we wanted to give him the opportunity to finish the drive,” Saleh told reporters.
“We haven’t seen the last of [Wilson]. But right now he’s just got to focus on finding ways to get better, and we’ve got to find ways to help him.
“It’s not just him, it’s collective, and we’ve all got to find ways to get better.”
While the Jets are left licking their wounds, the Jaguars can celebrate their third straight victory as they continued their late-season surge.
Quarterback Tom Lawrance, the No.1 overall pick in last year’s draft, completed 20 of his 31 passes for 229 yards and leaped in for the only touchdown of the game.
Hours after learning Breece Hall will be lost for the season, the Jets are making a move to replace him. They are trading for Jaguars running back James Robinson, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reports (on Twitter).
The Jaguars’ rushing leader in 2020 and 2021, Robinson has seen his role reduced due to the rise of 2021 first-rounder Travis Etienne. Robinson will be set to team with 2021 draftee Michael Carter for a 5-2 Jets team. The Jags will acquire a conditional sixth-rounder from the Jets, with ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter adding (via Twitter) the pick could become a fifth.
This news comes after Doug Pederson said Robinson was dealing with knee soreness. The Jets will bet on the UDFA success story, despite the Division I-FCS product being less than a year removed from an Achilles tear. Robinson, however, has bounced back from that severe injury. He has amassed 340 rushing yards on 81 carries this season, scoring three touchdowns.
In Robinson, the Jets are acquiring a player who set an NFL record for the most rookie-year scrimmage yards (1,414) accumulated by a UDFA. Robinson did that in just 14 games two seasons ago, being shut down for Jacksonville’s final two contests. After Etienne went down with a Lisfranc injury during the 2021 preseason, Robinson rushed for 767 yards and eight touchdowns. While the December Achilles tear ended Robinson’s second season on a sour note, he still saw his yards-per-carry figure increase from his rookie year (4.5 to 4.7). He is at 4.2 this season.
As a former UDFA, Robinson can be extended at any point. But he can also be kept in 2023 on an RFA tender. This gives the Jets options. For now, however, he stands to join Carter in the team’s post-Hall backfield.
A 2021 fourth-round pick, Carter is averaging 3.5 yards per carry. Carter began the year with a bigger role, but as Hall progressed in Mike LaFleur‘s offense, the North Carolina product became a clear backup option. It will be interesting to see how the Jets deploy Robinson and Carter, but the former has proven far more as an NFLer to this point.
Jacksonville is now committed to Etienne. The Jags played Robinson on just 12 snaps in Week 7, signaling a changing of the guard. The team took Etienne during Urban Meyer‘s one year running the show, doing so after Meyer surprisingly lamented Kadarius Toney being picked just before Etienne became the team’s choice. Etienne is signed through 2024 but can be controlled through 2025 via the fifth-year option. Trevor Lawrence‘s versatile Clemson teammate, Etienne has progressed in his first NFL games. He has totaled 566 scrimmage yards in seven games, scoring his first touchdown as a pro Sunday.
Week 4 of the NFL season is here, and teams continue to assess injuries to their players ahead of game time.
The San Francisco 49ers have suffered another blow to their offense, as star left tackle Trent Williams is expected to be out four to six weeks with an ankle injury. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair will miss time after he sprained an MCL against the Denver Broncos. The New York Giants also lost a key offensive player after wide receiver Sterling Shepard tore an ACL against the Dallas Cowboys on Monday, ending his season.
The New England Patriots will be without quarterback Mac Jones, who suffered a high ankle sprain last week against the Baltimore Ravens. Veteran Brian Hoyer will start Sunday against the Green Bay Packers. He has lost 11 consecutive starts.
In more positive news, New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson is expected to make his 2022 debut against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. Wilson has been out since the first game of the preseason because of a torn meniscus and a bone bruise in his right knee.
Our NFL Nation reporters have more updates on key players entering the weekend:
Quick links: Schedule | Depth charts | PickCenter
Injury: Knee
Patterson is officially listed as questionable on the team’s injury report, but he told ESPN on Friday that he plans on playing against the Cleveland Browns.
“I feel like I’m going to play every Sunday, no matter what the situation is,” Patterson said. “I plan on playing Sunday and we all know that’s the plan.”
Patterson, the NFL’s third-leading rusher, did not practice Wednesday or Thursday and was listed as a “resting player/knee.” He returned to practice Friday, did work on a limited basis and then was listed as questionable with a knee injury.
Coach Arthur Smith said Friday that Patterson “looked good,” but that he would assess Patterson’s status Saturday.
— Michael Rothstein
Injury: Ankle
Stanley, who is officially listed as questionable, said he’s “really close” to returning after missing 31 of the past 32 games. He was given a rest day Friday after fully practicing the previous two days. The Ravens could use the 2019 All-Pro left tackle to protect Lamar Jackson’s blind side. If Stanley can’t play, Baltimore would turn to rookie fourth-round pick Daniel Faalele to block Von Miller.
— Jamison Hensley
Injury: Quad
Barring a setback, McCaffrey should be able to go on Sunday after missing Wednesday and Thursday’s practices. McCaffrey returned to practice Friday in a limited role, and coach Matt Rhule said he was “hopeful” his star would be ready. McCaffrey gave no indication he wouldn’t be ready. “I feel great,” he said.
— David Newton
Injury: Knee
Let’s call this take two. It seemed like Gallup would make his debut last Monday against the New York Giants but he wanted some more time to feel right before coming back. He has had another week of full practices, although the Cowboys were not in pads at all this week. Gallup said he needed to clear a mental hurdle in coming back from the surgery. It appears he is trending toward playing vs. Washington, but he will work his way into the lineup on a snap count. They will not give him the full assortment of plays right away, so Noah Brown will continue as the No. 2 receiver with Gallup seeing something of a situational role. Tight end Dalton Schultz is also trending in the right direction of playing after missing the Giants game with a knee sprain. He has worn a brace in practice, and like Gallup, he might be limited in the number of snaps he plays until he is all the way back.
— Todd Archer
Injury: Groin
Patriots backup quarterback Brian Hoyer might have it a little easier if the Packers’ best coverage defensive back doesn’t play. Alexander dropped out of last week’s game at Tampa Bay, did not appear to do much in practice all week and is questionable for Sunday. Rasul Douglas moved from the slot to the outside after Alexander’s injury, and Keisean Nixon filled in in the slot.
— Rob Demovsky
Injury: Back
Leonard is listed as questionable for the first time this season after being ruled out in the previous three games. The recovery from Leonard’s offseason back surgery has lingered, but the tide turned this week.
“He’s had three pretty good days, continued to make progress,” coach Frank Reich said. “So, let’s see how he responds.”
If Leonard plays, the Colts might consider limiting his snaps. “The original thought was he would probably start out on a pitch count, but you don’t want to limit yourself. You just take it day by day and case by case and you kind of adapt as you go,” Reich said.
Injury: Elbow
Buckner is considered questionable and has been severely limited this week. But his history of playing while injured suggests that he’ll find a way to show up on Sunday. Buckner has missed just one game due to injury in his seven seasons.
Injury: Ankle
The Colts’ starting free safety will miss Sunday’s game with an ankle sprain, a development that will likely press seventh-round pick Rodney Thomas II into action. Thomas played well in last week’s game after Blackmon left the contest and impressed coaches.
— Stephen Holder
Injury: Hamstring
Allen suffered a hamstring injury in Week 1, was inactive in Week 2 and 3 and will remain on the sideline Sunday when the Chargers play the Texans. Earlier in the week, coach Brandon Staley expressed growing confidence that Allen would return in Week 4, but said Friday that the veteran receiver “felt something” during individual workouts, so he has been ruled out.
Washington Commanders tight end Logan Thomas will play Sunday in the season opener vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars, nine months after tearing his left ACL, a source told ESPN.
Thomas was listed as questionable on the Friday injury report, with coach Ron Rivera saying earlier in the week that he looked good in practice. Thomas had said he would return by Week 2 at the latest. The Commanders host Jacksonville at 1 p.m. Sunday.
Thomas tore his left ACL and MCL in a Dec. 5 game at the Las Vegas Raiders. He opened training camp on the physically unable to perform list but was removed on Aug. 22. He has been practicing with a brace on his left leg.
Thomas took reps in Washington’s red zone passing drill Friday, a good sign as the Commanders usually have only those who will play run these routes.
In 22 games with Washington, Thomas has caught 90 passes for 866 yards and nine touchdowns. He also missed six games last year with a hamstring injury. At the time of his torn ACL, Thomas led all tight ends with 151 yards receiving in the red zone since joining Washington. He gives new quarterback Carson Wentz another option in the passing game to go with receivers Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel and running backs J.D. McKissic and Antonio Gibson.
Thomas, who is 6-foot-6, 250 pounds, provides a big target and is Washington’s best all-around tight end. Rookie Cole Turner (hamstring) also is questionable, but he missed several weeks in camp with a hamstring injury and the team likely will deactivate him, allowing Turner another week to get needed practice reps.
Washington will be without starting strong safety Kam Curl, who won’t play Sunday because of an injured right thumb that required surgery two weeks ago.
Washington Commanders tight end Logan Thomas will play Sunday in the season opener vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars, nine months after tearing his left ACL, a source told ESPN.
Thomas was listed as questionable on the Friday injury report, with coach Ron Rivera saying earlier in the week that he looked good in practice. Thomas had said he would return by Week 2 at the latest. The Commanders host Jacksonville at 1 p.m. Sunday.
Thomas tore his left ACL and MCL in a Dec. 5 game at the Las Vegas Raiders. He opened training camp on the physically unable to perform list but was removed on Aug. 22. He has been practicing with a brace on his left leg.
Thomas took reps in Washington’s red zone passing drill Friday, a good sign as the Commanders usually have only those who will play run these routes.
In 22 games with Washington, Thomas has caught 90 passes for 866 yards and nine touchdowns. He also missed six games last year with a hamstring injury. At the time of his torn ACL, Thomas led all tight ends with 151 yards receiving in the red zone since joining Washington. He gives new quarterback Carson Wentz another option in the passing game to go with receivers Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel and running backs J.D. McKissic and Antonio Gibson.
Thomas, who is 6-foot-6, 250 pounds, provides a big target and is Washington’s best all-around tight end. Rookie Cole Turner (hamstring) also is questionable, but he missed several weeks in camp with a hamstring injury and the team likely will deactivate him, allowing Turner another week to get needed practice reps.
Washington will be without starting strong safety Kam Curl, who won’t play Sunday because of an injured right thumb that required surgery two weeks ago.
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Jacksonville Jaguars running back James Robinson should play in Sunday’s season opener against the Washington Commanders, coach Doug Pederson said Monday.
Robinson’s return comes less than nine months after he suffered a torn left Achilles tendon in a loss to the New York Jets on Dec. 26. He had been limited to individual work throughout much of training camp but did participate in team drills during the team’s joint practices with the Atlanta Falcons on Aug. 24 and 25.
It’s uncertain how much Robinson will play against the Commanders; Pederson has said throughout camp that he wanted to be careful with Robinson and not risk reinjury.
Since he also hasn’t appeared in any preseason games, it’s safe to assume Robinson won’t have his normal workload.
Second-year player Travis Etienne, who missed his rookie season with a Lisfranc injury, has been the Jaguars’ No. 1 back in camp and the preseason, and rookie fifth-round draft pick Snoop Conner has worked as the No. 2.
Robinson has rushed for 1,837 yards and 15 touchdowns and caught 80 passes for 566 yards and three touchdowns over two seasons with the Jaguars.
In 2020, Robinson posted the most scrimmage yards (1,414) and second-most rushing yards (1,070) by an undrafted rookie in the common draft era.
With the NFL regular season just around the corner — the first game of Week 1 kicks off Thursday, Sept. 8 — it’s time for our annual NFL Rank, a projection of the top 100 players in the 2022 season.
NFL Rank is a 1-100 ranking compiled by more than 50 ESPN experts, who are asked to rate how the best players will fare during the season. With any ranking, of course, there are going to be thoughts on the players who were left off the list and those who were ranked too low and too high.
We have enlisted a team of ESPN experts — Seth Walder, Matt Bowen, Matt Miller and Jordan Reid — to debate the rankings. They identified eight players who were snubbed, 10 players who were either overrated or underrated, and four rookies who have the potential to make the list in 2023.
Should Justin Tucker and Bobby Wagner have made the top 100? Who could have been left off the list entirely? Are Russell Wilson at No. 13 and Derrick Henry at No. 61 underrated or overrated? Who should have been in the top 10, but wasn’t? Could the first and second picks in the 2022 NFL draft make the list a year from now? We answer all these questions and more below.
Let’s start with Walder, who ranked the biggest snubs:
Jump to a section: Ranking biggest snubs Who’s overrated? | Rookies to watch
Which players were snubbed from the top 100?
Sports analytics guru Seth Walder ranks the eight players — starting with the biggest snub — he thinks were snubbed from appearing in the top 100. He then names eight players who should have been on the top 100 list instead.
The role of positional value in NFL Rank is not a settled matter. But let me use the ranks themselves to conclude that positional value clearly plays some role because there are 18 wide receivers and four off-ball linebackers in the top 100. However, there are just three quarterbacks in the top 10, which indicates that positional value is not everything.
Thus, while kicker is low on the positional importance scale, if there were one who clearly stood above his peers he ought to crack the top 100. I just described Tucker. Predicting kickers is basically random … unless it’s him. Over the past five seasons, Tucker led the NFL in field goal percentage over expectation at plus-17% (per NFL Next Gen Stats) and was over plus-12% in all five of those seasons.
He has been the No. 1 guard in pass block win rate in each of the past two seasons and was top 20 in run block win rate in each of those years, too. Regardless of position, it’s hard to exclude that level of excellence from the list.
In his two seasons in a mostly pass-rushing role, all Reddick has done is record back-to-back double-digit-sack seasons on two different teams and with a top-10 pass rush win rate at edge in both years. I’m completely sold that he should be on this list. He led all free agents in my sack projections back in March and currently sits seventh in my overall sack projections for 2022.
As for Smith, he ranked second in pass block win rate and third in run block win rate among guards. If those aren’t top-100 numbers, I don’t know what are.
In general I think we’re too slow to anoint young NFL players when they play at an extremely high level and too slow to bump down veterans when decline hits — please forget I said this when reading about the next player — particularly for those who weren’t highly drafted. But all Smith did in his first season in the NFL was play incredibly well.
Yes, Wagner is 32. And yes, his coverage numbers took a hit last season. But, he does have a long history of success in coverage and has maintained his ability in the run game. Wagner ranked sixth in run stop win rate in 2021, beating out then-teammate Jordyn Brooks. I bet we see one more great year out of Wagner.
This is a bit of personal preference here, but I continue to believe that Lockett has never been given credit for quite how exceptional he has been over the past few years. Last season, among wide receivers with at least 300 routes, Lockett ranked seventh in yards per route run — and everyone else in the top 12 made the list.
He’s also second in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016) in catch rate over expectation (plus-9%) among receivers with at least 1,000 routes run in that span, behind only Michael Thomas.
Over the past five seasons, Milano leads all linebackers with at least 500 coverage snaps in targeted EPA allowed at minus-55.5, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He also leads all linebackers in that span with a minus-11% completion percentage over expectation allowed. And he ranks third among linebackers in that span in yards per coverage snap allowed (0.6) and is first among players currently on teams.
I didn’t go into this list thinking Milano would be on it, but those coverage numbers are astonishing.
Williams tied for the league lead among safeties in yards per coverage snap allowed at 0.3 (min. 300 coverage snaps). A single season of nearest defender numbers for a safety might be a little shaky as evidence on its own for me, but the free agent market this offseason yielded him a contract worth $14 million APY — in the same range as players like Kevin Byard and Budda Baker who made the list — which reinforces Williams’ case.
Here’s who Walder would leave off the list:
Laremy Tunsil, OT, Houston Texans; Matt Ryan, QB, Indianapolis Colts; Jessie Bates III, S, Cincinnati Bengals; Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers; Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers; Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings; Jeffery Simmons, DT, Tennessee Titans; DeMarcus Lawrence, DE, Dallas Cowboys
Who is overrated and underrated?
NFL analyst Matt Bowen picks 10 players he thinks are underrated or overrated on this year’s top 100 list. He then picks who he thinks should have been in the top 10, but wasn’t.
Overrated. I get the upside of Wilson playing in the Broncos’ new offensive scheme. There will be motion and misdirection, and it’ll be more pass-heavy. And there is real talent at the receiving spots in Denver. However, ranking Wilson ahead of Tom Brady and Joe Burrow gave me some pause here based on the tape I watched from last season.
Underrated. Maybe the 2021 foot injury dropped Henry down the ranks this year. When fully healthy, however, Henry can absolutely dictate the flow of the game. He plays like a freight train coming downhill on the tracks. And he will wear out opposing defenses as a volume runner — with big-play juice.
Overrated. Young has the physical profile and traits of an upper-tier edge player in the league. Based on the tape, however, the Commanders defensive end needs more refinement in his pass-rush technique. And Young is still recovering from a torn ACL he suffered last season. With more game reps, Young has the skill set to develop into a top-50 player in this league, it just might take more time.
Underrated. Miller is a fourth-quarter closer who played his best football last season in the playoffs and on the Super Bowl stage. I still see Miller as a top-50 player in this league. He displays upper-tier pass-rushing skills with game-changing ability. What more could you ask for?
Overrated. When we project Waddle in Mike McDaniel’s offense — and focus on his electric catch and run traits — I understand why there is preseason hype for the former Alabama receiver. There will be schemed-up throws (to open voids) for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in this system. But I was a little surprised to see Waddle already ranked as a top-100 player — ahead of both Mike Williams and Tee Higgins. It seems premature.
Overrated. I like the system fit in Indianapolis for Ryan. He sees it fast from the pocket and can deliver the ball with location. He is a timing and rhythm thrower. But given his diminishing mobility and arm strength, I would look for a quarterback here with a higher ceiling as we project the back end of the top 100 — maybe San Francisco’s Trey Lance.
Overrated. Quinn’s 2021 numbers jump him to No. 90. He had 18.5 sacks, and we still see his explosive first step, plus the ability to flatten the rush path. But, we are projecting forward to this upcoming season. Quinn has never produced back-to-back seasons with double-digit sacks in his career. I would’ve put Patriots edge rusher Matthew Judon here over Quinn.
Underrated. It is shocking to see Simmons ranked this low given his difference-making traits at the defensive tackle position. He is a disruptive player who can win schemed one-on-ones in the Titans’ multiple fronts, or attack rush lanes off stunts and twists. He displays foot quickness, short-area speed and power. I see Simmons as an impact defender worthy of a higher rating.
Underrated. Bates’ postseason tape alone should have moved him much higher up in the ranks. He is a safety with multidimensional traits who can find the football and play as a tone-setter in the Cincinnati secondary.
Underrated. Based off his 2021 tape and where I project Campbell this season in the Green Bay defense, he should be ranked much higher. Campbell has every-down ability, with the second-level range and instincts to find the football. And I believe he can be one of the top stack linebackers in the league this year.
Who should be in the top 10?
After a breakout rookie season, which highlighted Parsons’ high-end physical tools and unique versatility at the position, I would bump the Cowboys linebacker into the top 10. It’s the open-field ability here and his great edge-rushing traits. He’s a three-down playmaker.
Which rookies could crack the top 100 in 2023?
NFL draft analysts Matt Miller and Jordan Reid give four rookies they think could crack the top 100 next year.
Hutchinson was one of the best defensive end prospects of the past decade when the Lions managed to steal him with the No. 2 overall selection in the 2022 draft. Hutchinson’s physical traits, mental toughness and relentless play style are all perfectly combined to make him a premier NFL pass-rusher.
Rarely do we see college defensive ends beating offensive tackles with speed while also possessing a long arm, exceptional lower-body power and a nonstop motor to clean up with multiple second-effort sacks. But that’s Hutchinson. He’ll be a favorite of the Detroit coaching staff and, in Aaron Glenn’s defense, he’ll be asked to pin his ears back and go get the quarterback.
Evaluating Stingley coming out of LSU took some creativity as he had played just 10 games over his final two seasons with the Tigers. But flashing back to his healthy season of 2019 quickly reminded scouts just how talented he is. Stingley routinely matched up with — and locked down — stars like Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings) and Ja’Marr Chase (Cincinnati Bengals) in practice. If Stingley is healthy, and all signs point to that, he has the tools to easily crack the top 100 following his rookie season. With awesome instincts, physicality and the size-to-speed ratio to cover the best the NFL has to offer, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Stingley excel immediately in the Texans’ defense.
— Matt Miller
The 2022 draft was one of the more unpredictable drafts in recent memory, as Walker didn’t become the consensus No. 1 overall pick until about a week prior. At 6-foot-5, 255 pounds, his natural ability to generate pressure on the quarterback combined with his consistency as a run defender made him very appealing.
While he’ll continue to be labeled raw, he produces the type of flash plays that will make you sit up in your chair. An attention grabber at many times, I expect a lot of those moments throughout his rookie campaign. As he continues to figure out the position and how to fully operate his frame, Walker is going to be an issue for a lot of defensive coordinators. It shouldn’t come as a surprise if he enters the tail end of the top-100 list next season.
After battling throughout training camp, it seems as if Ekwonu has finally taken a firm hold of the top spot on the depth chart. The first offensive player drafted in the 2022 draft, the former NC State star steps into a situation in which he’s forced to play right away, which could lead to him becoming a star very quickly.
At 6-foot-4, 310 pounds, Ekwonu has fast feet, consistent balance and is already naturally gifted as a pass-protector. Those skills combined with his ability as a finisher could allow him to be a stalwart for the franchise moving forward.
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence will not play in Thursday’s Hall of Fame Game against the Las Vegas Raiders, coach Doug Pederson said Tuesday morning.
Running back Travis Etienne, who missed his rookie season with a Lisfranc injury, won’t play either, Pederson said. Etienne is not practicing Tuesday because of an illness, but otherwise has been a full participant in training camp. Pederson said he wants to be careful with Etienne, the 25th overall pick of the 2021 draft.
“Trevor’s been getting a lot of great looks here in practice,” Pederson said. “[We] feel he’s in a good spot.”
Backup quarterback C.J. Beathard has been limited in camp in his recovery from a groin injury he suffered in OTAs and also will not play against the Raiders. Jake Luton will start.
“We’re still evaluating our roster,” Pederson said. “We’ve got a lot of young guys and a lot of battles that we want to start seeing in game situations.”
Lawrence threw 12 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions and set a franchise rookie record with 3,641 yards passing as a rookie in 2021.
