- Infectious particles of the SARS-CoV-2 virus isolated from hospital air News-Medical.Net
- Effectiveness of an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in children and adolescents: a large-scale observational study The Lancet
- Comparison of SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequencing using tiled amplicon enrichment and bait hybridization | Scientific Reports Nature.com
- Protein OCLN found to play crucial role in SARS-CoV-2 cell-to-cell transmission News-Medical.Net
- SARS-CoV-2 incubation period across variants of concern, individual factors, and circumstances of infection in France: a case series analysis from the ComCor study The Lancet
- View Full Coverage on Google News
Tag Archives: Isolated
Joint Statement by Sorrento Therapeutics, Inc. and Scilex Holding Company on Today’s Isolated Chapter 11 Filing By Sorrento Therapeutics, Inc. – Yahoo Finance
- Joint Statement by Sorrento Therapeutics, Inc. and Scilex Holding Company on Today’s Isolated Chapter 11 Filing By Sorrento Therapeutics, Inc. Yahoo Finance
- 3 years after rejecting $1B buyout, Sorrento files for bankruptcy amid legal battles FierceBiotech
- Sorrento Therapeutics Stock Is Sinking: What’s Going On? – Sorrento Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SRNE) Benzinga
- A biotech company that once claimed to have a ‘cure’ for COVID-19 just filed for bankruptcy, sending shares plunging 59% Yahoo Finance
- Sorrento Therapeutics Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy in US (1) Bloomberg Law
- View Full Coverage on Google News
Social Isolation Actually Changes The Structure of Our Brains, Neuroimaging Reveals
Why do we get a buzz from being in large groups at festivals, jubilees and other public events? According to the social brain hypothesis, it’s because the human brain specifically evolved to support social interactions. Studies have shown that belonging to a group can lead to improved wellbeing and increased satisfaction with life.
Unfortunately though, many people are lonely or socially isolated. And if the human brain really did evolve for social interaction, we should expect this to affect it significantly.
Our recent study, published in Neurology, shows that social isolation is linked to changes in brain structure and cognition – the mental process of acquiring knowledge – it even carries an increased risk of dementia in older adults.
There’s already a lot of evidence in support of the social brain hypothesis. One study mapped the brain regions associated with social interaction in approximately 7,000 people.
It showed that brain regions consistently involved in diverse social interactions are strongly linked to networks that support cognition, including the default mode network (which is active when we are not focusing on the outside world), the salience network (which helps us select what we pay attention to), the subcortical network (involved in memory, emotion and motivation) and the central executive network (which enables us to regulate our emotions).
We wanted to look more closely at how social isolation affects grey matter – brain regions in the outer layer of the brain, consisting of neurons. We, therefore, investigated data from nearly 500,000 people from the UK Biobank, with a mean age of 57.
People were classified as socially isolated if they were living alone, had social contact less than monthly and participated in social activities less than weekly.
Our study also included neuroimaging (MRI) data from approximately 32,000 people. This showed that socially isolated people had poorer cognition, including in memory and reaction time, and lower volume of grey matter in many parts of the brain.
These areas included the temporal region (which processes sounds and helps encode memory), the frontal lobe (which is involved in attention, planning and complex cognitive tasks) and the hippocampus – a key area involved in learning and memory, which is typically disrupted early in Alzheimer’s disease.
We also found a link between the lower grey matter volumes and specific genetic processes that are involved in Alzheimer’s disease.
There were follow-ups with participants 12 years later. This showed that those who were socially isolated, but not lonely, had a 26 percent increased risk of dementia.
Underlying processes
Social isolation needs to be examined in more detail in future studies to determine the exact mechanisms behind its profound effects on our brains. But it is clear that, if you are isolated, you may be suffering from chronic stress. This in turn has a major impact on your brain, and also on your physical health.
Another factor may be that if we don’t use certain brain areas, we lose some of their function. A study with taxi drivers showed that the more they memorized routes and addresses, the more the volume of the hippocampus increased. It is possible that if we don’t regularly engage in social discussion, for example, our use of language and other cognitive processes, such as attention and memory, will diminish.
This may affect our ability to do many complex cognitive tasks – memory and attention are crucial to complex cognitive thinking in general.
Tackling loneliness
We know that a strong set of thinking abilities throughout life, called “cognitive reserve”, can be built up through keeping your brain active. A good way to do this is by learning new things, such as another language or a musical instrument.
Cognitive reserve has been shown to ameliorate the course and severity of ageing. For example, it can protect against a number of illnesses or mental health disorders, including forms of dementia, schizophrenia and depression, especially following traumatic brain injury.
There are also lifestyle elements that can improve your cognition and wellbeing, which include a healthy diet and exercise. For Alzheimer’s disease, there are a few pharmacological treatments, but the efficacy of these need to be improved and side effects need to be reduced.
There is hope that in the future there will be better treatments for ageing and dementia. One avenue of inquiry in this regard is exogenous ketones – an alternative energy source to glucose – which can be ingested via nutritional supplements.
But as our study shows, tackling social isolation could also help, particularly in old age. Health authorities should do more to check on who is isolated and arrange social activities to help them.
When people are not in a position to interact in person, technology may provide a substitute. However, this may be more applicable to younger generations who are familiar with using technology to communicate. But with training, it may also be effective in reducing social isolation in older adults.
Social interaction is hugely important. One study found that the size of our social group is actually associated with the volume of the orbitofrontal cortex (involved in social cognition and emotion).
But how many friends do we need? Researchers often refer to “Dunbar’s number” to describe the size of social groups, finding that we are not able to maintain more than 150 relationships and only typically manage five close relationships.
However, there are some reports which suggest a lack of empirical evidence surrounding Dunbar’s number and further research into the optimal size of social groups is required.
It is hard to argue with the fact that humans are social animals and gain enjoyment from connecting with others, whatever age we are. But, as we are increasingly uncovering, it also crucial for the health of our cognition.
Barbara Jacquelyn Sahakian, Professor of Clinical Neuropsychology, University of Cambridge; Christelle Langley, Postdoctoral Research Associate, Cognitive Neuroscience, University of Cambridge; Chun Shen, Postdoctoral research fellow, Fudan University, and Jianfeng Feng, Professor of Science and Technology for Brain-Inspired Intelligence, Fudan University
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Socially Isolated People Have Differently Wired Brains and Poorer Cognition
Summary: Social isolation is linked to alterations in brain structure and cognitive deficits. Additionally, social isolation can increase the risk of developing dementia as a person ages.
Source: The Conversation
Why do we get a buzz from being in large groups at festivals, jubilees and other public events? According to the social brain hypothesis, it’s because the human brain specifically evolved to support social interactions. Studies have shown that belonging to a group can lead to improved wellbeing and increased satisfaction with life.
Unfortunately though, many people are lonely or socially isolated. And if the human brain really did evolve for social interaction, we should expect this to affect it significantly. Our recent study, published in Neurology, shows that social isolation is linked to changes in brain structure and cognition – the mental process of acquiring knowledge – it even carries an increased risk of dementia in older adults.
There’s already a lot of evidence in support of the social brain hypothesis. One study mapped the brain regions associated with social interaction in approximately 7,000 people.
It showed that brain regions consistently involved in diverse social interactions are strongly linked to networks that support cognition, including the default mode network (which is active when we are not focusing on the outside world), the salience network (which helps us select what we pay attention to), the subcortical network (involved in memory, emotion and motivation) and the central executive network (which enables us to regulate our emotions).
We wanted to look more closely at how social isolation affects grey matter – brain regions in the outer layer of the brain, consisting of neurons. We, therefore, investigated data from nearly 500,000 people from the UK Biobank, with a mean age of 57. People were classified as socially isolated if they were living alone, had social contact less than monthly and participated in social activities less than weekly.
Our study also included neuroimaging (MRI) data from approximately 32,000 people. This showed that socially isolated people had poorer cognition, including in memory and reaction time, and lower volume of grey matter in many parts of the brain.
These areas included the temporal region (which processes sounds and helps encode memory), the frontal lobe (which is involved in attention, planning and complex cognitive tasks) and the hippocampus – a key area involved in learning and memory, which is typically disrupted early in Alzheimer’s disease.
We also found a link between the lower grey matter volumes and specific genetic processes that are involved in Alzheimer’s disease.
There were follow-ups with participants 12 years later. This showed that those who were socially isolated, but not lonely, had a 26% increased risk of dementia.
Underlying processes
Social isolation needs to be examined in more detail in future studies to determine the exact mechanisms behind its profound effects on our brains. But it is clear that, if you are isolated, you may be suffering from chronic stress. This in turn has a major impact on your brain, and also on your physical health.
Another factor may be that if we don’t use certain brain areas, we lose some of their function. A study with taxi drivers showed that the more they memorised routes and addresses, the more the volume of the hippocampus increased. It is possible that if we don’t regularly engage in social discussion, for example, our use of language and other cognitive processes, such as attention and memory, will diminish.
This may affect our ability to do many complex cognitive tasks – memory and attention are crucial to complex cognitive thinking in general.
Tackling loneliness
We know that a strong set of thinking abilities throughout life, called “cognitive reserve”, can be built up through keeping your brain active. A good way to do this is by learning new things, such as another language or a musical instrument.
Cognitive reserve has been shown to ameliorate the course and severity of aging. For example, it can protect against a number of illnesses or mental health disorders, including forms of dementia, schizophrenia and depression, especially following traumatic brain injury.
There are also lifestyle elements that can improve your cognition and wellbeing, which include a healthy diet and exercise. For Alzheimer’s disease, there are a few pharmacological treatments, but the efficacy of these need to be improved and side effects need to be reduced.
See also
There is hope that in the future there will be better treatments for aging and dementia. One avenue of inquiry in this regard is exogenous ketones – an alternative energy source to glucose – which can be ingested via nutritional supplements.
But as our study shows, tackling social isolation could also help, particularly in old age. Health authorities should do more to check on who is isolated and arrange social activities to help them.
When people are not in a position to interact in person, technology may provide a substitute. However, this may be more applicable to younger generations who are familiar with using technology to communicate. But with training, it may also be effective in reducing social isolation in older adults.
Social interaction is hugely important. One study found that the size of our social group is actually associated with the volume of the orbitofrontal cortex (involved in social cognition and emotion).
But how many friends do we need? Researchers often refer to “Dunbar’s number” to describe the size of social groups, finding that we are not able to maintain more than 150 relationships and only typically manage five close relationships.
However, there are some reports which suggest a lack of empirical evidence surrounding Dunbar’s number and further research into the optimal size of social groups is required.
It is hard to argue with the fact that humans are social animals and gain enjoyment from connecting with others, whatever age we are. But, as we are increasingly uncovering, it also crucial for the health of our cognition.
About this social isolation research news
Authors: Barbara Jacquelyn Sahakian, Christelle Langley, Chun Shen, and Jianfeng Feng
Source: The Conversation
Contact: Barbara Jacquelyn Sahakian, Christelle Langley, Chun Shen, and Jianfeng Feng – The Conversation
Image: The image is in the public domain
Strange, Isolated Group of Polar Bears Discovered in Greenland
Researchers have identified a previously unknown population of polar bears living in isolation Southeast Greenland. The bears hunt for seals in fjords, on freshwater ice shelves, instead of on rapidly receding sea ice like other polar bear species.
A new report in the journal Science describes the population, which now brings the total number of known polar bear groups from 19 to 20. Scientists were aware that some polar bears could be in this area based on historical records and knowledge from Indigenous communities in the Arctic, and they were finally able to confirm that this is a separate population. The group consists of a few hundred bears, and the females tend to be smaller than those in other populations.
“Polar bears in SE Greenland are the most genetically isolated polar bears on the planet. They are distinct from all other 19 polar bear subpopulations in the Arctic and more diverged from neighboring subpopulations than any other pair,” Kristin Laidre, University of Washington polar scientist and lead author of the study, said in an email to Earther. “They have been separate for a few hundred years, and likely always have been a small population.”
The scientists worked for years to establish research posts out in Greenland, collar the bears, and monitor them to confirm their adaptability and isolation. Laidre said this new group was tracked from 2015 to 2021.
Elizabeth Peacock, an assistant professor at the Emory University School of Medicine and a polar bear expert, wrote a perspective article to accompany to Laidre’s research in the journal Science. She explained that some posts online have hinted that this isolated bear group could be a “thriving” population because they have found a new way to hunt. But Peacock she’s not confident that’s the case.
“Plasticity generally refers to an individual that has the ability to, you know, to use different behaviors… so, ‘I can figure out how to kill a walrus or I can figure out how to catch fish’,” she said. “Natural selection is about adapting over time… that assumes that polar bears have enough time to change what they’re doing to respond to natural selection.”
Unfortunately, the effects of climate change are happening faster than many polar bears can reproduce.
In her article, Peacock pointed to other known polar bear populations that have shown signs of plasticity, such as nesting farther inland away from depleting sea ice or hunting for different types of prey when their usual seal diet isn’t as abundant. There are questions as to whether glacier hunting will continue to be possible in the future, as ice melts in both poles. Polar bear generations are about 10 years long, but climate change is affecting ice at a rate much faster than that. Researchers are worried that this new behavior may not be passed down, because the climate crisis is quickly depleting ice in the Arctic.
“We have NO IDEA if they are thriving. We know nothing about whether the population is stable or in trouble. This will require more research,” Laidre said in an email. To actually determine how this population is faring in the face of climate change, scientists will have to study the survival of adult female polar bears by marking them and studying them over three or four years.
“Glacier ice may help small numbers of polar bears survive for longer periods under climate warming, and may be important to the species persistence (meaning preventing extinction), but it is not available for the vast majority of polar bears,” she said. “Future monitoring these bears can perhaps tell us a bit more about the future for the species.”
Long COVID-free, isolated Pacific islands hit with outbreaks
BANGKOK (AP) — For more than two years, the isolation of the Pacific archipelago nation of Tonga helped keep COVID-19 at bay.
But last month’s volcanic eruption and tsunami brought outside deliveries of desperately needed fresh water and medicine — and the virus.
Now the country is in an open-ended lockdown, which residents hope will help contain the small outbreak and will not last too long.
“We have pretty limited resources, and our hospitals are pretty small,” Tongan business owner Paula Taumoepeau said Friday. “But I’m not sure any health system can cope. We are lucky we’ve had two years to get our vax rate pretty high, and we had a pretty immediate lockdown.”
Tonga is only one of several Pacific countries to experience their first outbreaks over the past month. All have limited health care resources, and there is concern that the remoteness that once protected them may now make helping them difficult.
“Clearly when you’ve got countries that have already got a very stretched, and fragile health system, when you have an emergency or a disaster and then you have the potential introduction of the virus, that’s going to make an already serious situation immeasurably worse,” said John Fleming, the Asia-Pacific head of health for the Red Cross.
Tonga was coated with ash following the Jan. 15 eruption of the massive undersea Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha’apai volcano, then hit with a tsunami that followed.
Only three people have been confirmed killed, but several small settlements in outlying islands were wiped off the map and the volcanic ash tainted much of the drinking water.
The nation of 105,000 had reported only one case of COVID-19 since the beginning of the pandemic — a Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints missionary returning to the island from Africa via New Zealand who tested positive in October — and authorities debated whether to let international aid in.
They decided they had to, but despite strict precautions unloading ships and planes from Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Britain and China, two Tongan men who worked at the capital’s Queen Salote Wharf handling shipments tested positive on Tuesday.
“Tonga is just out of luck this year,” said Samieula Fonua, the chairman of Tonga Cable Ltd., the state-own company that owns the sole fiber-optic cable connecting the nation to the rest of the world. “We desperately need some good news.”
The two were moved into isolation, but in tests of 36 possible contacts, one’s wife and two children also tested positive, while the others tested negative, the local Matangi Tonga news site reported.
It was not clear how many people might have come into contact with the dockworkers, but the government released a list of locations where the virus could have spread, including a church, several shops, a bank and a kindergarten.
Prime Minister Siaosi Sovaleni imposed an open-ended lockdown starting 6 p.m. on Wednesday. It could be particular arduous for Tongans because most have been without any internet connections since the volcanic eruption severed the fiber optic cable to the country.
One of the infected dock workers has since tested negative, but remains in quarantine, and 389 others have been cleared of COVID-19, Sovaleni told reporters in Tonga. But he said Friday that a primary contact to one of the people infected had tested positive, and ordered the lockdown extended another 48 hours.
The government has been primarily communicating with residents by radio addresses, and Fonua said his crews estimate they may have to replace an 87-kilometer (54 mile) section of undersea cable. They were hoping to restore service by next week.
It is not yet known what variant of the virus has reached Tonga, nor who brought it in. Officials have stressed that the aid deliveries were tightly controlled, and that it is not yet proven the virus came in that way.
Sailors aboard the Australian aid ship HMAS Adelaide reported nearly two dozen infections after an outbreak on board, but authorities said it had been unloaded at a different wharf. Crew members aboard aid flights from Japan and Australia also reported infections.
“The people are OK with the lockdown because they understand the reason why, so the corona doesn’t spread over our little country,” Tulutulu Kalaniuvalu, a 53-year-old former police official who runs a business, told The Associated Press. He added that most Tongans depend on crops they grow on plantations and hope the lockdown is short-lived.
Experience from elsewhere, especially with the prevalence of the rapidly spreading omicron variant, suggests that Tonga faces an uphill battle in trying to contain the outbreak, Indonesian epidemiologist Dicky Budiman told the AP.
Some 61% of Tongans are fully vaccinated, according to Our World in Data, but because the country has not yet seen any infections, there’s no natural immunity and it is not clear whether the shots were given long enough ago that they may now be less effective, Budiman said.
He recommended that the government immediately start offering booster shots and open vaccinations to younger children.
“If we race with this virus we will not win,” he said in an interview from Australia. “So we have to move forward by protecting the most vulnerable.”
The October case of the missionary with COVID-19 prompted a wave of vaccinations, and 1,000 people already showed up for a first dose after the current outbreak was detected, Kalaniuvalu said.
Solomon Islands reported its first community outbreak on Jan. 19. With only 11% of its population fully vaccinated, the virus has been spreading rapidly with the Red Cross reporting that less than two weeks later, there are now more than 780 recorded cases and five COVID-19 related deaths.
Elsewhere, Fiji — still reeling from damage caused by Cyclone Cody in early January — has been battling an ongoing spike in cases, fueled by omicron, and cases have been reported for the first time in Kiribati, Samoa and Palau.
Palau has nearly its entire population fully vaccinated, while Fiji has 68% and Samoa 62%, but Kiribati is only at 33%.
The key to ensuring hospitals aren’t overwhelmed is to make sure more people get shots, Budiman said.
“These countries that choose to have this COVID-free strategy, they are very vulnerable,” he said.
Kalaniuvalu said some people have questioned the decision to let the ships carrying aid in to Tonga, but most feel it was necessary to help through the aftermath of the volcano and tsunami, and that the islanders now just had to do their best to minimize the impact of the outbreak.
“To be honest with you, we were one of the luckiest countries in the world for almost three years, now it’s finally here in Tonga,” he said.
“We, the people of Tonga, knew sooner or later the coronavirus would come to Tonga because the corona is here to stay.”
___ Perry reported from Wellington, New Zealand.
San Jose Police Investigate Apparent Isolated Shooting at Oakridge Mall – NBC Bay Area
Police were investigating an apparent isolated shooting at Oakridge Mall in San Jose Monday night.
Police said one person was shot but later said they were still searching the mall for a victim and suspect.
People at the mall were instructed to shelter in place if they could and wait for officers to find them.
A reunification center was set up in the Home Depot parking lot, located in the 900 block of Blossom Hill Road.
Police said they received reports of shots being fired at 5:48 p.m. by the Forever 21 store. After an extensive search, they gave the all clear around 9:45 p.m.
This is a developing story. Details may change as more information becomes available. Stay tuned for updates.
LIVE UPDATES: Damaging winds, isolated tornadoes possible in metro Atlanta this afternoon – WSB-TV Channel 2
METRO ATLANTA — A strong cold front with gusty winds, rain and storms is pushing its way through Georgia.
Severe Weather Team 2 Meteorologist Eboni Deon says there is now a Level 2 of 5 risk for severe weather for much of metro Atlanta.
Severe Weather Team 2 Meteorologists Eboni Deon and Brad Nitz will bring you the latest on the evolving weather system throughout the day on Channel 2 Action News
The storm system moving into Georgia is the same system that left dozens of people dead across the central U.S. overnight, thought the storms have weakened significantly.
1:48 p.m.
A tree has fallen on power lines on Houze Road in Roswell. Drivers are asked to avoid the road between Hembree Road and Houze Way.
1:33 p.m.
Storms just to our north and west are creating very gusty winds. A neighborhood in Kennesaw has reported a power outage.
1:03 p.m.
Storms are starting to move in to Cobb County now.
12:13 p.m.
Severe Weather Team 2 Meteorologist Brad Nitz said a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch may be issued for parts of west Georgia.
11:30 a.m.
The severe weather risk has shifted east as the line of storms begin to move through north Georgia.
Here is what to expect for Saturday:
- Storms begin moving in after 12 p.m. today and stick around into the evening.
- Potential for heavy rain, damaging wind gusts and possibility of a brief tornado.
- Once the front clears the area, it will turn significantly colder; Sunday morning lows expected in upper 30s.
DOWNLOAD: WSB-TV’s Weather App for storm alerts | RADAR: Track storms with StormTracker 2HD |
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
Across the central U.S., communities were waking up to scenes of destruction Saturday morning.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear said that “north of 70″ people were killed in the small town of Mayfield as a massive tornado tore through the southwest part of the state. Beshear said the tornado was on the ground for over 200 miles.
Beshear said the number of deaths could increase as the search continues into the daylight hours.
“It may in fact end up exceeding 100 before the day is done,” Beshear said.
The storm hit a candle factory where more than 110 employees were working the overnight shift. Rescues were still underway Saturday morning.
The National Weather Service has also confirmed that at least an EF-2 tornado ripped through Bowling Green, leaving heavy destruction there.
Two people were killed when the storms moved over an Amazon distribution center in suburban St. Louis.
Tennessee’s Emergency Management Agency reported three deaths in the northwest part of the state.
In northeastern Arkansas, at least two people were reported dead at a nursing home in Monette. There were reports of heavy damage surrounding the Monette area as well.
President Joe Biden released a statement Saturday, saying, “To lose a loved one like this is an unimaginable tragedy. We’re working with the governor to ensure they have what they need as the search for survivors and damage assessments continue.”
The Associated Press and ABC News contributed information to this story
©2021 Cox Media Group
Damaging winds, isolated tornadoes possible in North Georgia this afternoon – WSB-TV Channel 2
METRO ATLANTA — A strong cold front with gusty winds, rain and storms is making its way into the southeast and will push its way through Georgia starting on Saturday morning.
Severe Weather Team 2 Meteorologist Eboni Deon says there is now a Level 2 of 5 risk for severe weather for much of metro Atlanta.
Severe Weather Team 2 Meteorologists Eboni Deon and Brad Nitz will bring you the latest on the evolving weather system throughout the day on Channel 2 Action News
Here is what to expect for Saturday:
- Storms begin moving in after 12 p.m. today and stick around into the evening.
- Potential for heavy rain, damaging wind gusts and possibility of a brief tornado.
- Once the front clears the area, it will turn significantly colder; Sunday morning lows expected in upper 30s.
DOWNLOAD: WSB-TV’s Weather App for storm alerts | RADAR: Track storms with StormTracker 2HD |
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
The system left multiple people dead across several states as it moved through on Friday night. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear said that at least 50 people were killed in the small town of Mayfield as a massive tornado tore through the southwest part of the state.
The storm hit a candle factory where more than 100 workers were on the job. The National Weather Service has also confirmed that at least an EF-2 tornado ripped through Bowling Green, leaving heavy destruction there.
Beshear said the number of deaths could increase as the search continues into the daylight hours.
At least one of the dead was a senior at Western Kentucky University who was set to graduate Saturday, WBKO-TV reports.
President Joe Biden released a statement Saturday, saying, “To lose a loved one like this is an unimaginable tragedy. We’re working with the governor to ensure they have what they need as the search for survivors and damage assessments continue.”
Tennessee’s Emergency Management Agency reported three deaths in the northwest part of the state.
In northeastern Arkansas, at least two people were reported dead at a nursing home in Monette. There were reports of heavy damage surrounding the Monette area as well.
The Associated Press and ABC News contributed information to this story
©2021 Cox Media Group
Powerful Plains storm may spark isolated tornadoes, severe storms across Michigan and Great Lakes
A tightly cranked up storm system in the Plains tonight with move across the Great Lakes region Monday night and Tuesday. Even though the timing moving through Michigan leans toward escaping major severe weather, NOAA’s severe weather experts still think severe weather is possible.
Here are the forecasts for the three types of severe weather- tornadoes, severe wind gusts and large hail.
Tornado chance within 25 miles of a given point for 8 a.m. Monday to 8 a.m. Tuesday. (Forecast from Storm Prediction Center)
There is a five percent chance of a tornado within about the western half of Lower Michigan and the far eastern part of the U.P. This chance of a tornado officially fits in the time period of 8 a.m. Monday to 8 a.m. Tuesday, October 11-12, 2021. For Michigan the time period most likely to have a tornado or other severe weather is Tuesday 2 a.m. to 8 a.m. The tornado possibility area includes Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Coldwater, Lansing, Midland, Mount Pleasant, Cadillac, Traverse City, Mackinaw City and Sault Ste. Marie.
The area with the chance of damaging severe wind gusts in thunderstorms and one inch hail or larger is the same area as the tornado risk.
Chance of damaging wind gusts for 8 a.m. Monday to 8 a.m. Tuesday.
Large hail chance for 8 a.m. Monday to 8 a.m. Tuesday. (Forecast from Storm Prediction Center)
The Storm Prediction Center gives Michigan the chance of severe weather based on the upper-air dynamics of the storm. We know, however, that time of day is an important factor in creating severe weather. The heat of the afternoon and early evening create the most unstable part of the day. If the storms arrive early in the morning as expected, our severe weather risk could be lower than currently indicated.
In fact, in the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather discussion they say, “As deep-layer flow becomes more meridional (more south-to-north), convection(thunderstorms) may tend to become undercut by the surging cold front. If this occurs, the severe threat will be somewhat diminished as convection becomes elevated.” Elevated thunderstorms don’t bring severe wind gusts down to the ground.
Looking at one of the best weather models, it looks like a line of severe storms could hit the southwest corner of Michigan around 2 a.m. Tuesday. The storm line would then weaken as it moves east.
It is almost mid-October. It is definitely worth watching and alerting you since severe weather could come as a surprise at this time of year.