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US

California weather: Monterey Peninsula could become an island as storms flood swaths of California

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CNN
 — 

Monterey Peninsula residents could soon be living on an island as mammoth flooding threatens to cut them off from the rest of California.

The state has been hammered by a cascade of atmospheric rivers – long, narrow regions in the atmosphere that can carry moisture thousands of miles.

At least 18 people have died, neighborhoods have turned into lakes, and countless homes have been destroyed as a string of storms toppled trees and paralyzed communities over the past two weeks.

California’s flooding, in pictures


But a sliver of good news emerged Thursday: The nearly relentless rainfall has lifted much of California out of “extreme drought” conditions.

And much of the state is getting a brief respite from brutal weather Thursday. But cities are still inundated – and more storms are on the way.

Just south of the San Francisco Bay Area, cities including Monterey, Carmel and Pacific Grove on the Monterey Peninsula could soon be severed from the rest of California due to epic floodwater.

“If anyone was here in 1995, you know that during a large flooding event, the Monterey Peninsula became an island – people were either stuck on one side or the other,” Monterey County Sheriff Tina Nieto warned Wednesday evening.

“And we anticipate that we’re going to go into a similar situation, but not as bad. Some of the roadways are going to be closed, and you could be stuck on one side or the other.”

The sheriff’s office upgraded evacuation warnings to evacuation orders Wednesday in low-lying areas near the Salinas River.

“Monterey Peninsula may become an island again like it did in the ’95 floods, so please start preparing now,” the sheriff warned.

Nieto said it could be days before residents are allowed to return home, as crews need to make sure the area is safe.

According to the Storm Prediction Center, here’s what’s in store for California as another round of storms heads its way:

Thursday: Heavy rain will be confined along the northern California coast and into Oregon and Washington through Thursday night, with a slight risk of excessive rainfall in effect for northwestern California.


Friday: An atmospheric river will likely pummel the northern California and central California coast on Friday. Winter storm watches will likely begin across the Sierra Nevada range.

Heavy snowfall could lead to dangerous mountain travel conditions Friday and Saturday at elevations over 5,000 feet and in the northern and central California passes.


Saturday: A second system will move in on Saturday, and rainfall will spread south and begin to impact the whole state. Excessive rainfall threats will likely be issued for central California.

The recent storms have crippled travel and left dozens of highways inoperable.

At least 40 state routes were closed as of Wednesday night, state transportation spokesman Will Arnold said.

“We’re asking the public: If you don’t need to be on the roadways, please stay home and avoid any non-essential trips,” Arnold said.

Over 100 National Guard members were in San Luis Obispo County searching for missing 5-year-old Kyle Doan after he was swept away from a vehicle surrounded by floodwater on Monday.

Less than 1% of California is now under “extreme drought” – down from one-third of the state just two weeks ago, according to the latest US Drought Monitor report published Thursday.

“Intense precipitation in California the past few weeks – particularly late December and early January – has significantly reduced drought intensity in California,” according to the US Drought Monitor.

In 16 days, swaths of California received 50% to 70% of the amount of precipitation that they would usually get in a whole year, according to the National Weather Service.

Isolated areas, especially in the mountains near Santa Barbara, have recorded more than 90% of their annual precipitation.

But more than 95% of the state still faces some drought designation.

Large portions of the state remain in “moderate” or “severe” drought “since moisture deficits have been entrenched across some areas for the last 2-3 years,” the drought summary said.

The recent rains have “provided a generous boost” to key reservoirs in the state, but most are still below the long-term average for this time of the year.



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World

Taiwan: War game simulation suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries

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CNN
 — 

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026 would result in thousands of casualties among Chinese, United States, Taiwanese and Japanese forces, and it would be unlikely to result in a victory for Beijing, according to a prominent independent Washington think tank, which conducted war game simulations of a possible conflict that is preoccupying military and political leaders in Asia and Washington.

A war over Taiwan could leave a victorious US military in as crippled a state as the Chinese forces it defeated.

At the end of the conflict, at least two US aircraft carriers would lie at the bottom of the Pacific and China’s modern navy, which is the largest in the world, would be in “shambles.”

Those are among the conclusions the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), made after running what it claims is one of the most extensive war-game simulations ever conducted on a possible conflict over Taiwan, the democratically ruled island of 24 million that the Chinese Communist Party claims as part of its sovereign territory despite never having controlled it.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has refused to rule out the use of military force to bring the island under Beijing’s control.

CNN reviewed an advance copy of the report – titled “The First Battle of the Next War” – on the two dozen war scenarios run by CSIS, which said the project was necessary because previous government and private war simulations have been too narrow or too opaque to give the public and policymakers a true look at how conflict across the Taiwan Strait might play out.

“There’s no unclassified war game out there looking at the US-China conflict,” said Mark Cancian, one of the three project leaders and a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Of the games that are unclassified, they’re usually only done once or twice.”

CSIS ran this war game 24 times to answer two fundamental questions: would the invasion succeed and at what cost?

The likely answers to those two questions are no and enormous, the CSIS report said.

“The United States and Japan lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of service members. Such losses would damage the US global position for many years,” the report said. In most scenarios, the US Navy lost two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large surface combatants. Approximately 3,200 US troops would be killed in three weeks of combat, nearly half of what the US lost in two decades of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“China also suffers heavily. Its navy is in shambles, the core of its amphibious forces is broken, and tens of thousands of soldiers are prisoners of war,” it said. The report estimated China would suffer about 10,000 troops killed and lose 155 combat aircraft and 138 major ships.

– Source:
CNN
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Japan expands defense of its southern front line to counter China (April 2022)

The scenarios paint a bleak future for Taiwan, even if a Chinese invasion doesn’t succeed.

“While Taiwan’s military is unbroken, it is severely degraded and left to defend a damaged economy on an island without electricity and basic services,” the report. The island’s army would suffer about 3,500 casualties, and all 26 destroyers and frigates in its navy will be sunk, the report said.

Japan is likely to lose more than 100 combat aircraft and 26 warships while US military bases on its home territory come under Chinese attack, the report found.

But CSIS said it did not want its report to imply a war over Taiwan “is inevitable or even probable.”

“The Chinese leadership might adopt a strategy of diplomatic isolation, gray zone pressure, or economic coercion against Taiwan,” it said.

Dan Grazier, a senior defense policy fellow at the Project on Government Oversight (POGO), sees an outright Chinese invasion of Taiwan as extremely unlikely. Such a military operation would immediately disrupt the imports and exports upon which the Chinese economy relies for its very survival, Grazier told CNN, and interrupting this trade risks the collapse of the Chinese economy in short order. China relies on imports of food and fuel to drive their economic engine, Grazier said, and they have little room to maneuver.

“The Chinese are going to do everything they can in my estimation to avoid a military conflict with anybody,” Grazier said. To challenge the United States for global dominance, they’ll use industrial and economic power instead of military force.

But Pentagon leaders have labeled China as America’s “pacing threat,” and last year’s China Military Power report mandated by Congress said “the PLA increased provocative and destabilizing actions in and around the Taiwan Strait, to include increased flights into Taiwan’s claimed air defense identification zone and conducting exercises focused on the potential seizure of one of Taiwan’s outlying islands.”

In August, the visit of then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the island prompted a wide-ranging display of PLA military might, which included sending missiles over the island as well as into the waters of Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

Since then, Beijing has stepped up aggressive military pressure tactics on the island, sending fighter jets across the median line of the Taiwan Strait, the body of water separating Taiwan and China and into the island’s air defense identification zone – a buffer of airspace commonly referred to as an ADIZ.

And speaking about Taiwan at the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress in October, Chinese leader Xi Jinping won large applause when he said China would “strive for peaceful reunification” — but then gave a grim warning, saying “we will never promise to renounce the use of force and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary.”

The Biden administration has been steadfast in its support for the island as provided by the Taiwan Relations Act, which said Washington will provide the island with the means to defend itself without committing US troops to that defense.

The recently signed National Defense Authorization Act commits the US to a program to modernize Taiwan’s military and provides for $10 billion of security assistance over five years, a strong sign of long-term bipartisan support for the island.

Biden, however, has said more than once that US military personnel would defend Taiwan if the Chinese military were to launch an invasion, even as the Pentagon has insisted there is no change in Washington’s “One China” policy.

Under the “One China” policy, the US acknowledges China’s position that Taiwan is part of China, but has never officially recognized Beijing’s claim to the self-governing island.

“Wars happen even when objective analysis might indicate that the attacker might not be successful,” said Cancian.

The CSIS report said for US troops to prevent China from ultimately taking control of Taiwan, there were four constants that emerged among the 24 war game iterations it ran:

Taiwan’s ground forces must be able to contain Chinese beachheads; the US must be able to use its bases in Japan for combat operations; the US must have long-range anti-ship missiles to hit the PLA Navy from afar and “en masse”; and the US needs to fully arm Taiwan before shooting starts and jump into any conflict with its own forces immediately.

“There is no ‘Ukraine model’ for Taiwan,” the report said, referring to how US and Western aid slowly trickled in to Ukraine well after Russia’s invasion of its neighbor started and no US or NATO troops are actively fighting against Russia.

“Once the war begins, it’s impossible to get any troops or supplies onto Taiwan, so it’s a very different situation from Ukraine where the United States and its allies have been able to send supplies continuously to Ukraine,” said Cancian. “Whatever the Taiwanese are going to fight the war with, they have to have that when the war begins.”

Washington will need to begin acting soon if it’s to meet some of the CSIS recommendations for success in a Taiwan conflict, the think tank said.

Those include, fortifying US bases in Japan and Guam against Chinese missile attacks; moving its naval forces to smaller and more survivable ships; prioritizing submarines; prioritizing sustainable bomber forces over fighter forces; but producing more cheaper fighters; and pushing Taiwan toward a similar strategy, arming itself with more simple weapons platforms rather than expensive ships that are unlikely to survive a Chinese first strike.

Those policies would make winning less costly for the US military, but the toll would still be high, the CSIS report said.

“The United States might win a pyrrhic victory, suffering more in the long run than the ‘defeated’ Chinese.”

“Victory is not everything,” the report said.

– Source:
CNN
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Breakdown in US-China relations a ‘manufactured crisis,’ US ambassador says (August 2022)

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World

On Snake Island, the rocky Black Sea outcrop that became a Ukraine war legend

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Snake Island, Ukraine
CNN
 — 

Snake Island has a special place in Ukraine’s folklore, now more than ever. Its defiant defense – when a Russian warship was famously told to “go f*** yourself” – and then reconquest rallied a nation in the early months of the conflict with Russia, puncturing the myth of the invaders’ superiority.

Now, whipped by winter winds, it remains firmly in Ukrainian hands – a speck of rock that has both symbolic and strategic significance.

A CNN team became the first foreign media to visit the island since it was recaptured in June, and to speak with the commander of the operation that led to its liberation.

A few acres of rock and grass, treeless and difficult to access, Snake Island, also known as Zmiinyi Island, lies around 30 miles (48 kilometers) off the Ukrainian coast, near its maritime border with Romania.

Getting there proved challenging: An hour being pitched from wave to wave in a small boat, showered with spray, in sub-freezing temperatures. The Black Sea can be unforgiving, and so can its hazardous coastline. On the way back our dirigible boat got stuck on a sandbar, and it took six hours before we were transferred, one-by-one, to another vessel in the darkness.

Snake Island is now a desolate place, strewn with wreckage, its few buildings reduced to shells, its half-sunken jetty battered by the tide. It’s a graveyard of expensive military hardware – and is littered with unexploded ordnance and mines. This is not a place to be careless.

The CNN team saw at least four different kinds of landmines, Russian Pantsir surface-to-air missile systems, and an almost intact Tor anti-air missile complex. There was also the carcass of a Russian military helicopter that was hit.

Wondering among the wreckage, in a surreal scene, were dozens of cats, probably the descendants of the lighthouse pets from a more peaceful time.

Ukraine keeps a small military presence on the island as an observation mission. One of that detachment is actually Russian, a volunteer with the Ukrainian forces who goes by the call-sign Fortuna.

He’d been living with his family in Ukraine. “And here comes Russia attacking us. If some other country had attacked us we’d fight too.”

Nowadays, he says, the Russians aren’t doing much attacking, at least in this corner of Ukraine.

“At this stage the Russians only perform air strikes,” Fortuna told CNN. “So we can hear them coming. Plus we have observers all along the perimeter and we receive intelligence. So usually we are warned about a possible attack.”

Occasionally they will see a Russian warship in the distance.

“We need to be on guard 24/7 so we never get bored. There is always something to get busy with,” Fortuna says.

The troops here can’t communicate with their families. Even when there is a signal, turning on your phone invites a strike. The small boats used to ferry supplies are often unable to make the trip, so a rotation here can get extended by the elements, sometimes for a week.

Snake Island fell in the first few days of the invasion in February, as Ukraine struggled on multiple fronts against Russian forces. But before it did, there was a show of defiance that immediately became a meme for Ukraine’s determined resistance.

Ordered to surrender by an approaching Russian vessel, one of the small detachment there responded by radio: “Russian warship: Go f*** yourself.”

Those words were echoed on everything from T-shirts to postage stamps and road signs.

One of the small detachment on the island told CNN it was a pivotal moment, encouraging people to fight and volunteer.

The man who led the operation to expel the Russians from the island, after they occupied it for several months, cannot reveal his real name. As an officer in military intelligence he goes by the call-sign Shakespeare.

“There are just four or five officers like me in Ukraine,” he told CNN. “if I give any details, everybody will recognize me.”

But he did provide a detailed account of the plan to retake the island, which was successful by the end of June.

Much of the hard work was done in May, when exposed Russian positions were targeted. “It was all about choosing the right kind of artillery and combination of artillery,” Shakespeare said.

“The Russians made a mistake in estimating we cannot reach them there. They thought we could only fire multiple rocket launchers at them, so they installed anti-air systems on the island. They were able to intercept our rockets, but we used complex strikes.”

“They just lost manpower and lots of expensive vehicles for nothing. This was their main mistake.”

French-made CAESARS as well as Grad rocket launchers were used, he said, though he was less complimentary about the Ukrainian-developed Bogdana howitzer, which has a range of 40 kilometers (25 miles).

“It was breaking more than firing,” Shakespeare told CNN.

They were plenty of challenges, particularly as launching artillery across the sea is nothing like firing it across land. “Different conditions, so aiming is complicated,” he added. Reconnaissance drones helped make the artillery fire more accurate.

The Ukrainians also used the Turkish-supplied Bayrakhtar drone before the Russians introduced electronic warfare measures and air defenses on the island.

But the Russians had to ship equipment from Sevastopol in Crimea to defend the island. And that was their second mistake, Shakespeare said. This was a long and exposed supply line vulnerable to Ukrainian anti-ship missiles.

Shakespeare recalled the initial landing at the end of June, after Russian positions had been pummeled.

“It was a unit from Special Ops Forces and deminers from the marine corps. Combat swimmers, divers. They checked water for the mines. Then others could approach the island on the vessels.”

What they found was a deserted scrap yard.

“There was nobody there … They left in a hurry leaving behind ammunition and equipment.”

That included the nearly intact Tor complex. “If they’d had the time, they would have blown it up,” Shakespeare added.

Besides the huge boost to Ukrainian morale, the recapture of Snake Island had a strategic purpose.

“Controlling Snake Island allows you to control the mouth of Danube. Without securing (the) island signing the grain deal would have been impossible,” Shakespeare said, referring to the UN-brokered grain initiative agreed in July that allowed Ukraine to restart exports through the Black Sea.

Our visit is necessarily brief. Our hosts don’t want Russia to have the time to plan something and the weather is deteriorating. In the slate-gray of the winter afternoon we are whisked away for our rendezvous with the sandbar.

But the mystery of the island stays with you. It is reputed to be the burial place of Achilles and once had a Greek temple. It was fought over by the Russian and Ottoman empires. It seems that every crag and cave hides a story.

Now there is a modern legend to add to those fables.

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World

Taiwan’s military has a problem: As China fears grow, recruitment pool shrinks

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Taipei, Taiwan
CNN
 — 

Taiwan has noticed a hole in its defense plans that is steadily getting bigger. And it’s not one easily plugged by boosting the budget or buying more weapons.

The island democracy of 23.5 million is facing an increasing challenge in recruiting enough young men to meet its military targets and its Interior Ministry has suggested the problem is – at least in part – due to its stubbornly low birth rate.

Taiwan’s population fell for the first time in 2020, according to the ministry, which warned earlier this year that the 2022 military intake would be the lowest in a decade and that a continued drop in the youth population would pose a “huge challenge” for the future.

That’s bad news at a time when Taiwan is trying to bolster its forces to deter any potential invasion by China, whose ruling Communist Party has been making increasingly belligerent noises about its determination to “reunify” with the self-governed island – which it has never controlled – by force if necessary.

And the outlook has darkened further with the release of a new report by Taiwan’s National Development Council projecting that by 2035 the island can expect roughly 20,000 fewer births per year than the 153,820 it recorded in 2021. By 2035, Taiwan will also overtake South Korea as the jurisdiction with the world’s lowest birth rate, the report added.

Such projections are feeding into a debate over whether the government should increase the period of mandatory military service that eligible young men must serve. Currently, the island has a professional military force made up of 162,000 (as of June this year) – 7,000 fewer than the target, according to a report by the Legislative Yuan. In addition to that number, all eligible men must serve four months of training as reservists.

Changing the mandatory service requirement would be a major U-turn for Taiwan, which had previously been trying to cut down on conscription and shortened the mandatory service from 12 months as recently as 2018. But on Wednesday, Taiwan’s Minister of National Defence Chiu Kuo-cheng said such plans would be made public before the end of the year.

That news has met with opposition among some young students in Taiwan, who have voiced their frustrations on PTT, Taiwan’s version of Reddit, even if there is support for the move among the wider public.

A poll by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation in March this year found that most Taiwanese agreed with a proposal to lengthen the service period. It found that 75.9% of respondents thought it reasonable to extend it to a year; only 17.8% were opposed.

Many experts argue there is simply no other option.

Su Tzu-yun, a director of Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said that before 2016, the pool of men eligible to join the military – either as career soldiers or as reservists – was about 110,000. Since then, he said, the number had declined every year and the pool would likely be as low as 74,000 by 2025.

And within the next decade, Su said, the number of young adults available for recruitment by the Taiwanese military could drop by as much as a third.

“This is a national security issue for us,” he said. “The population pool is decreasing, so we are actively considering whether to resume conscription to meet our military needs.

“We are now facing an increasing threat (from China), and we need to have more firepower and manpower.”

Taiwan’s low birth rate – 0.98 – is far below the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population, but it is no outlier in East Asia.

In November, South Korea broke its own world record when its birth rate dropped to 0.79, while Japan’s fell to 1.3 and mainland China hit 1.15.

Even so, experts say the trend poses a unique problem for Taiwan’s military, given the relative size of the island and the threats it faces.

China has been making increasingly aggressive noises toward the island since August, when then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi controversially visited Taipei. Not long after she landed in Taiwan, Beijing also launched a series of unprecedented military exercises around the island.

Since then, the temperature has remained high – particularly as Chinese leader Xi Jinping told a key Communist Party meeting in October that “reunification” was inevitable and that he reserves the option of taking “all measures necessary.”

Chang Yan-ting, a former deputy commander of Taiwan’s air force, said that while low birth rates were common across East Asia, “the situation in Taiwan is very different” as the island was facing “more and more pressure (from China) and the situation will become more acute.”

“The United States has military bases in Japan and South Korea, while Singapore does not face an acute military threat from its neighbors. Taiwan faces the greatest threat and declining birth rate will make the situation even more serious,” he added.

Roy Lee, a deputy executive director at Taiwan’s Chung-hua Institution for Economic Research, agreed that the security threats facing Taiwan were greater than those in the rest of the region.

“The situation is more challenging for Taiwan, because our population base is smaller than other countries facing similar problems,” he added.

Taiwan’s population is 23.5 million, compared to South Korea’s 52 million, Japan’s 126 million and China’s 1.4 billion.

Besides the shrinking recruitment pool, the decline in the youth population could also threaten the long-term performance of Taiwan’s economy – which is itself a pillar of the island’s defense.

Taiwan is the world’s 21st largest economy, according to the London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research, and had a GDP of $668.51 billion last year.

Much of its economic heft comes from its leading role in the supply of semiconductor chips, which play an indispensable role in everything from smartphones to computers.

Taiwan’s homegrown semiconductor giant TSMC is perceived as being so valuable to the global economy – as well as to China – that it is sometimes referred to as forming part of a “silicon shield” against a potential military invasion by Beijing, as its presence would give a strong incentive to the West to intervene.

Lee noted that population levels are closely intertwined with gross domestic product, a broad measure of economic activity. A population decline of 200,000 people could result in a 0.4% decline in GDP, all else being equal, he said.

“It is very difficult to increase GDP by 0.4%, and would require a lot of effort. So the fact that a declining population can take away that much growth is big,” he said.

Taiwan’s government has brought in a series of measures aimed at encouraging people to have babies, but with limited success.

It pays parents a monthly stipend of 5,000 Taiwan dollars (US$161) for their first baby, and a higher amount for each additional one.

Since last year, pregnant women have been eligible for seven days of leave for obstetrics checks prior to giving birth.

Outside the military, in the wider economy, the island has been encouraging migrant workers to fill job vacancies.

Statistics from the National Development Council showed that about 670,000 migrant workers were in Taiwan at the end of last year – comprising about 3% of the population.

Most of the migrant workers are employed in the manufacturing sector, the council said, the vast majority of them from Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines.

Lee said in the long term the Taiwanese government would likely have to reform its immigration policies to bring in more migrant workers.

Still, there are those who say Taiwan’s low birth rate is no reason to panic, just yet.

Alice Cheng, an associate professor in sociology at Taiwan’s Academia Sinica, cautioned against reading too much into population trends as they were affected by so many factors.

She pointed out that just a few decades ago, many demographers were warning of food shortages caused by a population explosion.

And even if the low birth rate endured, that might be no bad thing if it were a reflection of an improvement in women’s rights, she said.

“The educational expansion that took place in the 70s and 80s in East Asia dramatically changed women’s status. It really pushed women out of their homes because they had knowledge, education and career prospects,” she said.

“The next thing you see globally is that once women’s education level improved, fertility rates started declining.”

“All these East Asian countries are really scratching their head and trying to think about policies and interventions to boost fertility rates,” she added.

“But if that’s something that really, (women) don’t want, can you push them to do that?”

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US

Hawaii volcano: Lava from Mauna Loa is less than 4 miles from a key highway. Officials say they have a plan in case the road closes

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CNN
 — 

With the Mauna Loa volcano continuing to erupt on Hawaii’s Big Island, local officials and residents are keeping an eye on the lava flow as it creeps closer to a major roadway and making plans for the possibility that access to the highway could soon be cut off and have a major impact on daily life.

Lava from Mauna Loa was 3.6 miles from Saddle Road, also known as Daniel K. Inouye Highway, as of Wednesday morning, the US Geological Survey said. The crucial roadway is the fastest route linking the east and west sides of the island.

“County officials have been working with the state Department of Transportation on a plan to shut down the Daniel K. Inouye Highway if the lava moves close enough to the road to pose a hazard,” Adam Weintraub, communication director with Hawaii Emergency Management Agency, said in a statement to CNN. “The plans are preliminary and subject to change based on how the lava advances.”

As of Wednesday, the lava was moving into a relatively flat area, “so it is slowing down and spreading out,” Weintraub said.

Emmanuel Carrasco Escalante, who lives in Hilo on the island’s east side, told CNN if the road ends up being shut down, his commute to work would take about four hours round trip – twice as long as normal, not accounting for traffic.

Carrasco Escalante works in landscaping in Kona on the west side of the island and said he usually leaves for work around 3:30 a.m.

If Saddle Road is closed, he’ll have to detour to either the north or south coastal roadways, he said.

“That would add almost two hours, more gas, and more miles so hopefully it (lava) doesn’t cross that road,” Carrasco Escalante told CNN.

The fountains of lava that began pouring from Mauna Loa this week marked the first time it has erupted in 38 years, joining nearby Kilauea, which has been erupting since last year, and creating rare duel volcanic eruptions on the Big Island. At 13,681 feet above sea level, Mauna Loa is the world’s largest active volcano.

The transportation department can provide a six-hour notice of the road’s closure, Weintraub said. “And the staff at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory say that they can provide at least 24-48 hours advance warning if the lava appears to be threatening the roadway,” he added.

According to the US Geological Survey, the lava’s pace has slowed in the days since the eruption and it could take at least two days for the lava to reach Saddle Road.

In case of emergencies if the road closes, there are hospitals and first responders on each side of the island, Weintraub said, noting there is already “substantial coordination” between hospitals in the state.

Hawaii’s transportation department is monitoring the situation and response plans are in place if the highway must be closed, according to a statement from earlier this week. The department also shared a preliminary plan for the possibility of closure.


Despite the dual eruptions of Mauna Loa and Kilauea just 21 miles apart in Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park, Hawaii Gov. David Ige has maintained it’s still safe to visit the Big Island. And the park has said neither eruption is threatening homes.

“The eruption site is high up the mountain, and it’s in a relatively isolated location,” Ige said.

State health officials, however, have warned of potential air quality issues, including vog, or volcanic smog.

Residents and visitors can expect “vog conditions, ash in the air, and levels of sulfur dioxide to increase and fluctuate in various areas of the state,” the Hawaii health department said.

Volcanic gas, fine ash and Pele’s Hair (strands of volcanic glass) could be carried downwind, the US Geological Survey said. A field team has found Pele’s hairs across older lava flows, the geological survey said Wednesday, adding: “Hairs deposited many km (mi) from active vents by the windblown eruption plume.”

Children, the elderly and those with respiratory conditions should reduce outdoor activities that cause heavy breathing and reduce exposure by staying indoors and closing windows and doors if vog conditions develop, the health department said.

The governor acknowledged the potential for air hazards and said officials are tracking air quality monitors across the island.

“The concern is about dangerous gases from the fissures. And the most dangerous is sulfur dioxide,” Ige said Wednesday. “Observing the volcano should occur at a distance. It’s not safe to get up close.”

While evacuation orders have not been issued, Ige said he signed an emergency proclamation as a “proactive” measure.

More than 3,000 miles to the north, officials in Alaska are also monitoring two erupting volcanoes in their state.

Both the Pavlof Volcano and Great Sitkin Volcano are experiencing low-level eruptions in the remote Aleutian Islands chain, according to Cheryl Searcy, duty scientist at the Alaska Volcano Observatory.

“Pavlof has been erupting for over a year,” Searcy told CNN in a phone interview from Anchorage. “Roughly 15 months of activity, longer than any of the previous eruptions.”

During that time, Pavlof – which stands at 8,261 feet– has not produced a high ash cloud, posing no threat to aviation, Searcy said.

As for the Great Sitkin Volcano, lava is still erupting in its summit crater, according to a report from the state’s volcano observatory. Searcy noted the 5,709-foot Great Sitkin has also been active for quite a while.

Researchers are also keeping an eye on three other volcanoes that have shown signs of unrest, including the Semisopochnoi, Takawangha and Cleveland volcanoes.

Overall, Alaska has more than 40 active volcanoes stretching across the Aleutian Islands chain.



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Science

Flatheaded dinosaur lived on island of dwarfed creatures

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CNN
 — 

A previously unknown dinosaur with a remarkably flat head lived around 70 million years ago on an island home to dwarfed prehistoric creatures.

Discovered in what’s now western Romania, the Transylvanosaurus platycephalus (flatheaded reptile from Transylvania) was 2 meters (6 feet) long — a relatively small size for a dinosaur, according to a new study. Its skull bones were unearthed in 2007 in a riverbed of the Haţeg Basin.

In the Cretaceous Period, this region of Romania was a tropical archipelago. Dinosaurs living there were smaller than their relatives elsewhere; paleontologists think these dinosaurs were an example of what biologists call “island rule,” where large animals isolated on islands become dwarfed or stunted in their growth over time and small animals become larger.

Sauropods, the largest type of dinosaurs that have ever lived, reached average heights of a puny 6 meters (nearly 20 feet) on the archipelago, for example, compared with 15 to 20 meters (49.2 to 65.6 feet) typical for the group.

However, the mechanism that gives rise to such changes isn’t fully understood but could be linked to a shortage of resources.

The dinosaur’s bones were able to survive for tens of millions of years because the sediments of an ancient riverbed protected them.

“If the dinosaur had died and simply lain on the ground instead of being partly buried, weather and scavengers would soon have destroyed all of its bones and we would never have learned about it,” study coauthor Felix Augustin, a paleontologist and doctoral student at the University of Tübingen in Germany, said in a news release.

None of the bones the researchers uncovered was longer than 12 centimeters (about 5 inches), but they revealed a remarkable amount of detail about the little plant-eating dino that would have walked on two legs and had a powerful, thick tail. It was possible to discern the contours of the brain of Transylvanosaurus, the research team said.

“We were able to see the impressions, and thus the proportions, of different brain sections — more specifically, of the olfactory bulbs (the brain section responsible for the sense of smell) and the cerebrum, which serves several different functions from sensory processing to memory,” Augustin said via email.

“The next step would be to compare the proportions of the brain and eye to other related species, as this may give information on what senses were important to Transylvanosaurus,” he added.

The Haţeg Basin has been a hotbed for dinosaur discoveries. Ten dinosaur species have already been identified during excavations in the region, with the first dinosaur discovered in 1900. The Transylvanosaurus platycephalus is the first new dinosaur species to be discovered there in 10 years after a small carnivore and long-necked plant eater were found in 2010, Augustin said.

Transylvanosaurus was a plant eater and part of a family of dinosaurs known as Rhabdodontidae that were common during the Late Cretaceous Period. Its head was far wider than other Rhabdodontidae species, the study said.

Precisely how the Transylvanosaurus ended up in the eastern part of what was the European archipelago remains unclear.

Researchers believe this type of dinosaur could have originated in what’s now France, where fossils of its nearest relatives have been found, and somehow made it to the region — perhaps by swimming, or due to fluctuations in sea level or tectonic processes that created a land bridge.

“They had powerful legs and a powerful tail,” Augustin said of the Transylvanosaurus. “Most species, in particular reptiles, can swim from birth.”

Another possibility is that various lines of rhabdodontid species evolved in parallel in Eastern and Western Europe.

Regardless of its geographic origins, the newly discovered species helps disprove assumptions that there was a low diversity of dinosaurs and other fauna in the Late Creaceous Period, the researchers said. As well as the dwarf dinosaurs, the Haţeg Basin was also home to crocodiles, giant pterosaurs (flying reptiles) and turtles — before dinosaurs went extinct 66 milion years ago.

“Almost every terrestrial animal on this island was pretty small,” Augustin said via email. “An exception were the pterosaurs, some of which reached gigantic body sizes — the reason for this is probably that they could fly and thus were not as severely impacted by the limited resources on the island.”

The research was published November 23 in the Journal of Vertebrate Paleontology.

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World

COP27: What is ‘loss and damage,’ the climate summit’s key issue

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CNN
 — 

Aftab Khan felt helpless when torrential floodwaters submerged a third of Pakistan, his home country.

Khan’s hometown was completely underwater. His friend rescued a woman who had walked barefoot, carrying her sick child, through stagnant floodwaters for 15 miles. And Khan’s own mother, who now lives with him in Islamabad, was unable to travel home on washed-out roads to check if her daughter was safe.

“These are heart-wrenching stories, real stories,” Khan, an international climate change consultant, told CNN. “I was heartbroken.”

Pakistan became the clearest example this year of why some countries are fighting for a so-called “loss and damage” fund. The concept is that countries which have contributed the most to climate change with their planet-warming emissions should pay poorer countries to recover from the resulting disasters.

Earlier this year, Pakistan cooked under a deadly heat wave that climate change made 30 times more likely, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Now it is reeling from the aftermath of the worst floods in living memory.

The South Asian country is responsible for less than 1% of the world’s planet-warming emissions, but it is paying a heavy price. And there are many other countries like it around the world.

Loss and damage will be center stage at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, this year, as low-emitting countries inundated with floods or watching their islands sink into the ocean are demanding that developed, high-emissions countries pay up for this damage.

But it’s been a contentious issue for years, as rich countries like the United States fear that agreeing to a loss and damage fund could open them up to legal liability, and potential future lawsuits.

Climate activists in developing nations and a former top US climate official told CNN time is running out, pointing to Pakistan’s cascading disasters as the clearest evidence why a dedicated loss and damage fund is needed.

The developing world is “not prepared to protect themselves and adapt and be resilient” to climate disasters, former White House Climate Adviser Gina McCarthy told CNN. “It’s the responsibility of the developed world to support that effort. Commitments have been made but they’re not being delivered.”

As a concept, loss and damage is the idea that rich countries, having emitted the most planet-warming gases, should pay poorer countries who are now suffering from climate disasters they did not create.

Loss and damage is not a new ask. Developing countries and small island states have been pressing for these kinds of funds since 1991, when the Pacific island Vanuatu first proposed a plan for high-emitting countries to funnel money toward those impacted by sea level rise.

It took more than a decade for the proposal to gain momentum, even as much of Vanuatu and other small island Pacific nations are slowly disappearing.

In Fiji, climate activist Lavetanalagi Seru’s home island, it has cost an average of $1 million to relocate communities because of sea level rise. Moving away from ancestral lands is not an easy decision, but climate change is having irreversible impacts on the islands, said Seru, the regional policy coordinator with the Pacific Islands Climate Action Network.

“Climate change is threatening the very social fabrics of our Pacific communities,” Seru said. “This is why these funds are required. This is a matter of justice for many of the small island developing states and countries such as those in the Pacific.”

A major reason this type of fund is contentious is that wealthy nations are concerned that paying for such a fund could be seen as admission of liability, which may trigger legal battles. Developed nations like the US have pushed back on it in the past and are still tiptoeing around the issue.

Khan said he understands why rich developed nations are “dragging their feet.” But he added that it’s “very important for them to empathize and take responsibility.”

There has also been confusion about its definition – whether loss and damage is a form of liability, compensation or even reparations.

“‘Reparations’ is not a word or a term that has been used in this context,” US Climate Envoy John Kerry said on a recent call with reporters. He added: “We have always said that it is imperative for the developed world to help the developing world to deal with the impacts of climate.”

Kerry has committed to having a conversation on a fund this year ahead of a 2024 deadline to decide on what such a fund would look like. And US officials still have questions – whether it would come through an existing financial source like the Green Climate Fund, or an entirely new source.

Kerry also sparked some controversy on the topic at a recent New York Times event, when in response to a question on loss and damage, Kerry seemed to suggest that no country has enough money to help places like Pakistan recover from devastating climate disasters.

“You tell me the government in the world that has trillions of dollars, cause that’s what it costs,” Kerry said at the event.

But others say the money is there. It’s more a matter of priorities.

“Look at the annual defense budget of the developed countries. We can mobilize the money,” Alden Meyer, senior associate at E3G, told CNN. “It’s not a question of money being there. It’s a question of political will.”

At COP27, the biggest debate will be over whether to create a dedicated financial mechanism for loss and damage – in addition to existing climate finance meant to help countries adapt to climate change and transition to clean energy.

After climate-ravaged nations called for a new loss and damage finance facility at COP26 in Glasgow last year, it’s likely it will be an official COP27 agenda this year. But even as wealthier countries like the US and EU nations have committed to talk about it, there’s not a lot of hope countries will emerge from Sharm in agreement about a fund.

“Do we expect that we’ll have a fund by the end of the two weeks? I hope, I would love to – but we’ll see how parties deliver on that,” Egypt ambassador Mohamed Nasr, that country’s main climate negotiator, told reporters recently.

But Nasr also tamped down expectations, saying that if countries are still haggling over whether to even put loss and damage on the agenda, they’re unlikely to have a breakthrough on a financing mechanism.

He said it’s more likely that the loss and damage conversation will continue over the two weeks of Sharm, perhaps ending a framework established for a financing mechanism – or clarity on whether funds might come from new or existing sources.

Some officials from climate-vulnerable nations warned that if countries fail to come to an agreement now, the problem will be much worse later.

“For countries not on the front line, they think it’s sort of a distraction and that people should focus on mitigation,” Avinash Persaud, special envoy to Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley, told CNN. “If we had done mitigation early enough, we wouldn’t have to adapt and if we’d adapted early enough, we wouldn’t have the loss of damage. But we haven’t done those things.”

Correction: An earlier version of this story misstated how much money has been spent to relocate communities in Fiji because of sea level rise. It’s an average of $1 million per community, according to Lavetanalagi Seru.

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World

500 pilot whales die in mass strandings in New Zealand’s remote Chatham Islands

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CNN
 — 

Hundreds of pilot whales have died after becoming stranded near the shark-infested waters of a remote island chain in the South Pacific, according to rescue teams and conservationists.

New Zealand’s Department of Conservation told CNN nearly 500 whales washed up in the Chatham Islands, 840 kilometers (520 miles) east of the main South Island, in two separate mass stranding events reported by residents over the weekend.

Dave Lundquist, a marine technical adviser for the department, said it does not attempt to refloat stranded whales in the area due to the risk of shark attacks to both people and the whales. The surviving whales were euthanized to prevent further suffering, he said.

“This decision is never taken lightly, but in cases like this it is the kindest option,” Lundquist said.

Daren Grover, general manager of rescue organization Project Jonah, said most of the pilot whales were already dead when they came ashore, and the survivors were in poor health.

“Having such a high number of whales in one location is unusual, but it’s certainly not unheard of,” he said.

In addition to the risk posed by sharks, it was “almost impossible” for rescue teams to travel to the Chatham Islands on short notice, he said, compounding the difficulty of saving the whales.

The mass stranding incident comes less than a month after about 200 pilot whales died on the coast of Tasmania in Australia.

It’s common for pilot whales to become stranded but the behavior is not well understood, according to the Department of Conservation. Most scientists believe that individual whales strand because they are diseased and coming to the end of their natural lifespan.

The Chatham Islands, which are home to about 600 people, are among the top three “stranding hotspots” in New Zealand. In 1918, the archipelago saw the biggest recorded stranding in the country of about 1,000 pilot whales, according to the department.

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US

Hurricane Ian’s death toll rises as crews in Florida go door-to-door in search for survivors in decimated neighborhoods

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CNN
 — 

After Hurricane Ian obliterated communities in Florida, rescue crews going door-to-door in search of survivors are reporting more deaths, and residents grappling with the losses are facing a long, daunting recovery.

As of Monday, at least 101 people have been reported killed by the hurricane in Florida – 54 of them in Lee County alone. Ian also claimed the lives of four people in North Carolina.

Ian slammed into Florida as a furious Category 4 hurricane last Wednesday. Days later, there are residents of island communities cut off from the mainland, hundreds of thousands of people without power, and Floridians who have found themselves homeless.

In some cases, government officials dealing with recovery efforts are among those who lost their homes.

Fort Myers Beach City Councilman Bill Veach said his 90-year-old cottage is in ruins, with only one section that was a recent addition left standing. Pieces of his home were found two blocks away, he said.

“When you are walking around the ruins, it’s an apocalyptic scene,” Veach said of his neighborhood.

Still, even in the wreckage, there have been moments of hope, he said.

“You see a friend that you weren’t sure was alive or dead and that brings you joy. A joy that is so much more than the loss of property,” Veach added.

Rescuers throughout the state have been coming to the aid of trapped residents via boat and aircraft. More than 1,900 people have been rescued as of Monday, Gov. Ron DeSantis said during a news conference.

Some residents who were anxiously waiting to hear from their loved ones have received unimaginable news.

Elizabeth McGuire’s family said they last spoke with her Wednesday and had been having trouble reaching her. They learned Friday that the 49-year-old had been found dead in her Cape Coral home.

Police told her family she died in her bed holding her cell phone and it looked like she died instantly, her son Andrew Chedester said.

McGuire’s mother, Susan McGuire, said the destruction of the storm “is massive.”

“One hundred blizzards will not cost you what one hurricane will cost you,” said Susan McGuire, who moved to Florida from Maryland a few years ago. “My husband’s business whipped out, my daughter is dead … I never had a blizzard take anything away from me.”

On Sanibel Island, now cut off from the Florida peninsula after Ian wiped out a portion of the roadway connecting them, every house shows damage, Sanibel Fire Chief William Briscoe said.

“There are a lot places that are not livable. There are places off their foundation, and it’s very dangerous out there,” Briscoe said. “There are alligators running around, and there are snakes all over the place.”

Crews have evacuated 1,000 people from Sanibel since Hurricane Ian ripped through the island, according to Briscoe.

A similar situation is playing out on nearby Pine Island, the largest barrier island on Florida’s Gulf Coast. Just days ago, it was a tranquil fishing and kayaking destination known for its small-town atmosphere. Now it is a scene of carnage, with cracked roadways and destroyed homes.

Ian destroyed the only bridge to Pine Island, making it only accessible by boat or aircraft.

Supplies are now being air dropped to the island by helicopter as some residents choose to stay, authorities said.

“Food is being delivered to Pine Island. Now, is it enough to sustain them over a long period of time? I can’t say that yet, none of us can,” Lee County Manager Roger Desjarlais said Monday.

Emergency physician Dr. Ben Abo, who joined rescuers on Pine Island, said crews are encountering residents who were in denial the storm would hit the area and are now running out of supplies.

“I’m seeing a lot of despair, but I’m also seeing hope,” Abo said. “I’m seeing urban search and rescue, fire rescue, bringing hopes to people that we’re going to get through this. But we have to do it in stages.”

Work is underway to install a temporary bridge for Pine Island and the goal is to have it completed by the end of the week, DeSantis said Monday.

“This is not necessarily going to be a bridge you’re going to want to go 45 miles per an hour over maybe, but at least you’ll have connectivity to the mainland,” the governor said.

The National Guard will also be flying power crews to Sanibel and Pine islands to start working on restoring power.

At Fort Myers Beach, power may not be restored on for 30 days due to damage to the electrical infrastructure, according to Desjarlais.

He painted a somber picture of the area, describing thousands of destroyed boats and vessels that have ended up in yards, in mangroves, and sunk in shallow waters and environmental hazards from leaking diesel and fuel.

After Ian slammed into Florida’s west coast, a Naples man trekked through nearly half a mile of floodwater to save his 85-year-old mother.

Johnny Lauder, a former police officer, told CNN he sprang into action after his mother, who uses a wheelchair, called in a panic and said water was rushing into her home and reaching her chest.

He arrived at her home to find her neck-deep in floodwater, but happy to see her son.

“The water was up to the windows, and I heard her screaming inside,” Lauder said. “It was a scare and a sigh of relief at the time – a scare thinking she might be hurt, a sigh of relief knowing that there was still air in her lungs.”

Lauder was able to bring his mother to safety as floodwaters began to recede.

It’s unclear how many people remain unaccounted for after the storm. Florida Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie said authorities are working to consolidate a list of the missing.

Tonia Werner is among those waiting to hear news about a loved one. It’s been three days since she heard anything about her father, David Park, who was admitted to ShorePoint ICU in Port Charlotte days before Hurricane Ian made landfall.

“As of Friday he was on a ventilator and that’s the last contact,” Tonia told CNN. “No phones, nothing. I don’t even know if he’s alive. I have reached out every which way I can think of, begging for information because we’re stuck. And there’s no way to get to him.”

Tonia lives nearly an hour away from Port Charlotte and is cut off from being able to reach the area by flooding in Arcadia, which has blocked access for anybody to get across town, she said.

Hospitals in Florida have been experiencing “significant pressure” on capacity since Ian hit, said Mary Mayhew, president and CEO of the Florida Hospital Association.

Emergency departments have sustained damage, staffing has been impacted as many hospital workers have been displaced or lost their vehicles in the hurricane, and facilities lost reliable access to water.

Hospitals also don’t typically discharge patients who don’t have a place to go, whether their homes were damaged in the storm or their nursing homes were evacuated and temporarily closed.

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US

Hurricane Ian: More deaths reported in Florida as search for survivors continues in the state facing an arduous road to recovery

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CNN
 — 

Days after Hurricane Ian tore through Florida, wiping out neighborhoods and turning streets into rivers, rescue crews searching for survivors are reporting more deaths as recovery efforts continue.

Officials confirmed Ian has killed at least 76 people in Florida after it made landfall last week as a Category 4 storm, decimating coastal towns, flooding homes, collapsing roofs, flinging boats into buildings and sending cars floating. Four other people died in storm-related incidents as Ian churned into North Carolina.

More than 1,600 people have been rescued from Hurricane Ian’s path in parts of southwest and central Florida since last week, Gov. Ron DeSantis’ office said Sunday.

Now, as blue skies return, Floridians who took shelter while the hurricane raged have emerged to find unrecognizable communities and face the daunting task of rebuilding; many of them still without power or clean drinking water.

More than 689,000 homes, businesses and other customers in Florida still did not have power as of Sunday evening, according to PowerOutage.us. Many are without clean tap water, with well over 100 boil-water advisories in places around the state, according to Florida Health Department data.

In Naples, Hank DeWolf’s 4,000-pound boat dock was carried through a condo complex by the powerful hurricane, landing in his neighbor’s yard. And the water brought someone’s car into his own backyard. He doesn’t know who it belongs to or how to remove it.

As crews in Naples comb through the wreckage to make sure no one is still trapped, residents are experiencing an “emotional roller coaster” as they face the enormous task ahead to clean up and restore the city, Jay Boodheshwar, city manager of Naples told CNN.

“People need to take care of their emotional and mental health, because we’re really going to need to work together on this,” Boodheshwar acknowledged.

Naples received record-high storm surge, when the hurricane sent rising ocean water flooding into the city’s streets and tearing through its infrastructure.

“The amount of water that we received and the height of the surge affected a lot of the infrastructure,” Boodheshwar explained. “So there are transformers that are fried. It is not simply rehanging lines. There are things that may need to be replaced.”

Similar scenes are playing out in other communities. Hurricane Ian – expected to be the most expensive storm in Florida’s history – devastated neighborhoods from the state’s western coast to inland cities like Orlando.

In some cases, emergency workers out searching for signs of life are at the same time contending with losing their own homes.

“Some of the guys on Pine Island, they lost everything, but they’re doing what they can,” said emergency physician Dr. Ben Abo, who was preparing to join first responders on a rescue mission Sunday near decimated Sanibel Island and Pine Island.

And the flooding isn’t over yet.

Seminole County continues to experience significant flooding in certain neighborhoods, with families being rescued from waist-high waters over the weekend.

Days after the hurricane left, flooding continues to increase in areas near the St. Johns River, Lake Monroe, and Lake Harney, with an additional 100 homes suffering floodwater damage over the last 24 hours, Seminole County emergency management officials told CNN affiliate WESH.

FEMA alone cannot rebuild and provide assistance to all the communities impacted by Hurricane Ian, former FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate told CNN Sunday. The US Department of Housing and Urban Development, otherwise known as HUD, can provide grants to communities impacted by hurricanes and other natural disasters to help people get back on their feet, Fugate added.

“It’s just not the coast of Florida that’s been impacted. We’ve got impacts all the way through Orlando, up to the East Coast. Places like St. Augustine had devastating flooding,” Fugate stressed.

Hurricane Ian wiped away parts of the Sanibel Causeway, which connects Sanibel Island to the mainland, stranding residents as their only link became impassable.

Responders were going door-to-door searching properties for anyone who may need to be evacuated.

About 400 people evacuated from Sanibel Island over the weekend, City Manager Dana Souza reported Sunday evening, adding authorities will begin turning their attention to providing medical services to the people who are choosing to stay on the island, rather than evacuations.

Abo told CNN he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the death toll significantly increases as rescue and recovery efforts continue on Sanibel Island.

US Coast Guard Commander Rear Admiral Brendan McPherson offered a stark assessment of the damage to Sanibel Island.

“That area is going to be out of commission for some time,” McPherson remarked. “It was hit very hard, it does not have water, it doesn’t have the basic infrastructure.”

Amy Lynn was at her friend’s home on Sanibel Island when Ian hit, forcing her to hide in a closet with seven dogs, praying and holding the door shut as the hurricane roared outside.

When she came out, the home had been badly damaged, with walls blown off, video showed.

“I prayed for 6 solid hours and came to peace that it may be my time to go. It wasn’t. God is good. We made it out alive,” Lynn wrote on Facebook. “We lost everything. My car is gone. I haven’t seen my home on Sanibel, i’ve been told it’s destroyed.”

Lynn said she was thankful to be alive, but wrote, “This is so much more than devastating. The heart of the swfl coast is forever changed.”

Many of the Ian-related deaths – 42 fatalities – have been reported in southwestern Florida’s Lee County, which includes Fort Myers and Sanibel Island.

Lee County officials have been facing criticism about why the first mandatory evacuations weren’t ordered until a day before Ian’s landfall, despite an emergency plan which suggests evacuations should have happened earlier.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Lee County officials acted appropriately when they issued their first mandatory evacuations on Tuesday, less than 24 hours before Hurricane Ian made landfall on the state, and a day after several neighboring counties issued their orders.

Lee County Commissioner Kevin Ruane also defended the timing of the orders, calling reports about a possible delay in issuing a mandatory evacuation “inaccurate.”

“As soon as we saw the model shift northeast, we did exactly what we could to encourage people to” evacuate, Ruane said Sunday.

Ruane added people became “complacent” and many didn’t evacuate to shelters.

“I think the most important thing that most people need to understand is we opened up 15 shelters. During Irma there were 60,000 people in our shelters. There’s 4,000 people in the shelters right now,” Ruane said.

In addition to the 42 deaths in Lee County, Hurricane Ian also contributed to the deaths of 12 people in Charlotte County, eight in Collier County, five in Volusia County, three in Sarasota County, two in Manatee County, and one each in Polk, Lake, Hendry and Hillsborough counties, officials said.

Around 65% of all power outages in Florida from the storm had been restored as of early Sunday, according to PowerOutage.us.

But some residents and businesses in storm-damaged counties may not be back on the grid for “weeks or months” because of the structural damage caused by the hurricane, said Eric Silagy, president and CEO of Florida Power & Light Company.

In Cape Coral, just southwest of Fort Myers, 98% of the city’s power structure was “obliterated” and will need complete reconstruction, Fire Department Chief and Emergency Management Director Ryan Lamb told CNN’s Jim Acosta.

Florida is also working with Elon Musk and Starlink satellite to help restore communication in the state, according to DeSantis. “They’re positioning those Starlink satellites to provide good coverage in Southwest Florida and other affected areas,” DeSantis said.

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