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World

Inside the US and German standoff over sending tanks to Ukraine

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Washington
CNN
 — 

The Biden administration is stuck in a standoff with Germany over whether to send tanks to Ukraine ahead of a key meeting of Western defense leaders in Germany on Friday.

In recent days, German officials have indicated they won’t send their Leopard tanks to Ukraine, or allow any other country with the German-made tanks in their inventory to do so, unless the US also agrees to send its M1 Abrams tanks to Kyiv – something the Pentagon has said for months it has no intention of doing given the logistical costs of maintaining them.

“They have us over a barrel,” a senior Biden administration official told CNN Thursday, adding that the Germans are demanding tanks for tanks, and not budging on considering any other offers the US has made to spur Berlin to send the Leopards.

The tank standoff comes amid a much larger debate between the US and its European allies over whether to send increasingly sophisticated weaponry to Ukraine, including longer-range missiles that would allow Ukraine to hit targets as far as 200 miles away.

The UK, Poland, Finland and the Baltic states have all been pushing for NATO members to provide heavier equipment to Kyiv amid what they believe is a key inflection point in the war. Both Ukraine and Russia appear to be gearing up for new offensives and there are signs that Moscow could be preparing an additional troop mobilization.

Last week, the British added pressure to their Western allies when they announced they would send 14 of their Challenger tanks to Ukraine. But Germany and the US were still opposed to the idea of sending their own tanks as of Wednesday.

Berlin then dragged the Biden administration deeper into the standoff, suggesting their delivery of tanks was contingent on the US doing the same.

“If America will decide that they will bring battle tanks to Ukraine, that will make it easier for Germany,” German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck told Bloomberg from Davos on Tuesday.

Asked on Wednesday at Davos about supplying tanks to Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made a similar point, saying Germany was “Strategically interlocked together with our friends and partners” and that, “we are never doing something just by ourselves but together with others, especially the United States.”

A Western official explained that for Scholz, the tanks question “is a red, red, red line. German tanks [fighting] Russia again. Moral issue. Understandable, from the historical viewpoint. Still, speaking of moral burden, I wish Germans were nowadays more sympathetic with Poland. Let alone with Ukraine. Didn’t German tanks kill Ukrainians 80 years ago as well? Now they can defend them from Russian barbaric aggression.”

Ahead of a meeting on Thursday in Berlin between US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his German counterpart, a senior US defense official said that the US is “very optimistic that we will make progress” on the tanks question.

But not everyone in the US government shares that optimism. A number of senior administration officials privately expressed frustration with German officials for making what the US believes is a false equivalency between the US and German tanks.

“It’s silly,” a senior administration official said of the German request for American tanks alongside German ones. “It’s as if they think they’re the same and they’re not. It doesn’t feel like they understand the difference.”

US officials familiar with the situation told CNN on Thursday that the tank question is still undecided ahead of Friday’s meeting, and that it would be surprising if Germany changed its mind, despite Austin’s private pressure campaign.

“I think if there was a concern about being alone in providing this capability, that shouldn’t be a concern but at the end of the day the German government is going to make a sovereign decision,” Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl said on Wednesday.

Pressure is mounting in some corners for the US to go ahead and send Abrams tanks simply as a way to get the Germans on board.

“Scholz wants to be in lockstep with the US,” Rep. Seth Moulton told CNN after discussing the matter with Scholz this week in Davos. “I think the US should give a few tanks if that is what is required for Germany. That is called leadership.”

On Wednesday, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki suggested that Warsaw may simply ignore any limits Germany seeks to impose on Poland’s export of its supply of the German-made tanks.

“Consent is a secondary issue. Either we will get this consent or we ourselves will do what must be done,” Morawiecki said. “Germany is the least proactive country out of the group, to put it mildly. We will continue pressuring the chancellor.”

This all comes as the US on Thursday announced a new $2.5 billion Ukraine security package, including for the first time Stryker combat vehicles and more armored Bradley Fighting Vehicles.

But the package does not include M1 Abrams tanks, and it is unlikely that the US is going to provide them anytime soon because they are difficult and expensive to supply and maintain, US officials said.

“One of the things that Secretary Austin has been very focused on is that we should not be providing the Ukrainians systems they can’t repair, they can’t sustain, and that they over the long term can’t afford because it’s not helpful,” Kahl said on Wednesday. “And this isn’t about a news cycle or what’s symbolically valuable, it’s what will actually help Ukraine on the battlefield.”

Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh poured more cold water on the German demand on Thursday, telling reporters that providing the Abrams tanks “doesn’t make sense.”

Singh painted Leopards as the better option for Ukraine.

“It’s a little bit easier to maintain, they can maneuver across large portions of territory before they need to refuel. The maintenance and the high cost that it would take to maintain an Abrams it’s just – it just doesn’t make sense to provide that to the Ukrainians [Abrams tanks] this moment.”

Western tanks would represent the most powerful direct offensive weapon provided to Ukraine so far, and if used properly, they could allow Ukraine to retake territory against Russian forces that have had time to dig defensive lines. The US has begun supplying refurbished Soviet-era T-72 tanks, but modern Western tanks are a generation ahead in terms of their ability to target enemy positions.

Ukrainian officials have said they will need around 300 of these modern tanks to beat back the Russians, and the European Council on Foreign Relations estimates that around 2,000 Leopard tanks are spread across Europe.

“We welcome the bold and very timely decision of the United Kingdom to transfer the first squadron of Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine,” Ukrainian Minister for Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba and Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in a joint statement on Thursday. “However, it is not sufficient to achieve operational goals.”

The Ukrainian ministers appealed to countries with the Leopard 2 tanks in their inventory, including Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and Turkey, and promised to “use these weapons responsibly and exclusively for the purposes of protecting the territorial integrity of Ukraine within internationally recognized borders.”

The debate amongst the allies about how far to go in arming Ukraine, particularly when it comes to long-range missiles, reflects a broader disagreement over the risks of escalation between NATO and Russia.

To date, the US has refused to send long-range missiles known as ATACMS to Ukraine out of concern that they could be used to attack targets inside Russia. But in keeping with London’s more forward-leaning attitude toward military support for Ukraine, some British officials have expressed an openness to supplying the longer-range systems, sources familiar with the matter told CNN.

For now, the US is still opposed to the idea.

“On the ATACMS issue, I think we’re kind of at the, ‘agree to disagree’ position on that,” Kahl told reporters on Wednesday.

Taking note of the Brits’ more aggressive public posture, Ukrainian officials have asked the UK to take more of a leading role in Friday’s meeting, people familiar with their requests told CNN. They also want British officials to more aggressively brief allied foreign secretaries and defense ministers on what the Ukrainians believe are the operational realities of the war – and what they need to win it.

Those discussions are happening quietly, because the UK has traditionally not wanted to be seen as out of step with its allies. But there are signs that London is becoming more willing to break with the US publicly – most recently with its announcement that it will supply tanks to Ukraine.

Before visiting Washington this week, British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly also made the case in an op-ed that “now is the time to accelerate and go further and faster in giving Ukraine the support it needs.”

“This war has been dragging on for a long time already. And now is the time to bring it to a conclusion,” Cleverly added, in a conversation with CNN at the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Wednesday.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also jumped into the fray on Wednesday, calling for the allies to supply “heavier” and more modern weaponry.

“The main message [at Ramstein] will be more support and more advanced support, heavier weapons, and more modern weapons,” Stoltenberg said, referring to the Contact Group meeting of NATO defense leaders at Ramstein Air Base on Friday. “Because this is a fight for our values, is a fight for democracy and we just have to prove that democracy wins over tyranny and oppression.”

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US

House Republicans lay groundwork for Mayorkas impeachment as moderates balk

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CNN
 — 

Senior House Republicans are moving swiftly to build a case against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas as they strongly weigh launching rare impeachment proceedings against a Cabinet secretary, a plan that could generate sharp backlash from GOP moderates.

Key committee chairmen are already preparing to hold hearings on the problems at the southern border, which Republicans say could serve as a prelude to an impeachment inquiry against Mayorkas. Three House committees – Oversight, Homeland Security and Judiciary – will soon hold hearings about the influx of migrants and security concerns at the border.

The House Judiciary Committee, which would have jurisdiction over an impeachment resolution, is prepared to move ahead with formal proceedings if there appears to be a consensus within the GOP conference, according to a GOP source directly familiar with the matter. The first impeachment resolution introduced by House Republicans already has picked up support, including from a member of the GOP leadership team.

A GOP source said the first Judiciary Committee hearing on the border could come later this month or early February.

One top chairman is already sounding supportive of the move, a sign of how the idea of impeaching President Joe Biden’s Cabinet secretary has moved from the fringes to the mainstream of the conference.

“If anybody is a prime candidate for impeachment in this town, it’s Mayorkas,” Rep. James Comer, chairman of the House Oversight Committee, told CNN.

It’s exceedingly rare for a Cabinet secretary to be impeached, something that has only happened once in US history – when William Belknap, the secretary of war, was impeached by the House before being acquitted by the Senate in 1876. Yet it’s a very real possibility now after Kevin McCarthy – as he was pushing for the votes to win the speakership – called on Mayorkas to resign or face potential impeachment proceedings.

With no signs that Mayorkas is stepping aside, House Republicans are signaling they’re prepared to move ahead, even as a bevy of members are uneasy about the approach.

Indeed, McCarthy has to balance his base’s demands for aggressive action with the concerns from more moderate members – many of whom hold seats in swing districts central to his narrow majority. And some in safer seats aren’t yet sold on whether the GOP should pursue that route.

“Clearly, the management of the Southern border has been incompetent,” Rep. Dusty Johnson, a Republican of South Dakota, told CNN. “That is not the threshold in the Constitution for impeachment – it’s high crimes and misdemeanors. … I would want to think about the legal standard the Constitution has set out – and whether or not that’s been met.”

If he loses more than four GOP votes on an impeachment resolution, the effort would fail in the House and could mark a huge embarrassment for the GOP leadership. Already, he has potentially lost one vote – Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas who signaled he is opposed to the effort right now – and several other members who are far from convinced that charging Mayorkas with committing a high crime and misdemeanor is warranted, even if they believe he’s done a lackluster job in helping secure the southern border.

“Has he been totally dishonest to people? Yes. Has he failed in his job miserably? Yes,” Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, a Florida Republican, said of Mayorkas. “Are those grounds for impeachment? I don’t know.”

Indeed, Republicans from swing districts are urging their colleagues to not rush into impeachment, which would be dead-on-arrival in the Senate and could turn the American people off if the party is perceived as overreaching.

“The border is a disaster and a total failure by the Biden administration. We should first to try to force change through our power of the purse,” Rep. Don Bacon, who represents a Biden-won district in Nebraska, told CNN. “Maybe after more oversight we’ll see where middle America is at, but I don’t think independent, swing voters are interested in impeachments.”

Asked Tuesday about his pre-election warning that Mayorkas could be impeached by the House over the GOP concerns about the borders, McCarthy railed on the problems at the border.

“Should that person stay in their job? Well, I raised the issue they shouldn’t. The thing that we can do is we can investigate, and then that investigation could lead to an impeachment inquiry,” McCarthy told CNN, adding it could “rise to that occasion” of an impeachment if Mayorkas is found to be “derelict” in his duties.

During the first working week of their new majority, Rep. Pat Fallon, a Texas Republican, introduced articles of impeachment for Mayorkas over problems at the southern border, and Rep. Andy Biggs, a hard-right Arizona Republican, vowed to re-introduce a similar resolution in the coming weeks, which could serve as a template for eventual impeachment proceedings.

Fallon’s resolution says Mayorkas has “undermined the operational control of our southern border and encouraged illegal immigration,” also contending he lied to Congress that the border was secure.

Democrats say Republicans are threatening to impeach Mayorkas for pure political reasons, and say policy disputes hardly rise to the level of “high crimes and misdemeanors.”

Mayorkas has already testified in front of Congress numerous times since he assumed his post, and his agency says he is fully prepared to continue complying with oversight in the GOP-led House. So far, there have been no formal requests for hearings or testimony, with congressional committees still working to get off the ground, though Republicans last year sent numerous letters and preservation requests telegraphing their plans for the majority.

In a statement, a spokeswoman for Mayorkas made clear he has no plans to resign and called on Congress to come together to fix the nation’s immigration system.

“Secretary Mayorkas is proud to advance the noble mission of this Department, support its extraordinary workforce, and serve the American people. The Department will continue our work to enforce our laws and secure our border, while building a safe, orderly, and humane immigration system,” the spokeswoman said in a statement. “Members of Congress can do better than point the finger at someone else; they should come to the table and work on solutions for our broken system and outdated laws, which they have not updated in over 40 years.”

Yet there are signs that the push is gaining steam in the House GOP.

Fallon’s resolution has attracted the support of several Republicans who previously held off on calling for impeachment, including Rep. Dan Crenshaw, a Texas Republican and member of the Homeland Security Committee, and Oklahoma Rep. Stephanie Bice, a new member of the GOP leadership team – signaling the idea is hardly isolated to the fringe wing of the party.

Fallon, too, had not previously backed impeaching Mayorkas until this Congress. Fallon said that he introduced impeachment articles to help get “the ball rolling,” but still believes it’s key to show the American public why they believe Mayorkas deserves to be removed from his post.

“It is important, it is an emergency, you need to break the glass, you really do need to take it up, and then we’re going to have an additional investigation,” Fallon told CNN. “While that’s why I filed the articles, you can always just sit on them and not do anything with them. That starts the ball rolling, we’re going to give Mayorkas the opportunity to defend himself and his department.”

Meanwhile, key committee chairs are vowing to hold hearings on the crisis at the southern border and prepping plans to haul in officials for interviews. GOP Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, who leads the powerful House Judiciary Committee where impeachment articles would originate, suggested the issue would be one of the first hearings when his panel gets up and running.

GOP leaders are cognizant of the fact they can only afford to lose four Republicans on any given vote, and want to build a thorough case for impeachment that can bring the entire party along. But pressure is already building on McCarthy, who has emboldened members of his right flank in his bid to claim the speaker’s gavel – and even given them a powerful tool to call for his ouster if he doesn’t listen to their demands.

Rep. Chip Roy, a Texas Republican and one of the key negotiators in the standoff over McCarthy’s speakership and who was the first to call for Mayorkas’ impeachment, told CNN: “I’ve been very public about my belief that he has violated his oath, that he has undermined our ability to defend our country.”

The primary committees that would be involved in building a case against Mayorkas are both chaired by members of the hardline House Freedom Caucus: Jordan and Tennessee Rep. Mark Green, the newly elected leader of the House Homeland Security Committee.

Part of Green’s pitch to become chairman has centered on how he will hold the Biden administration accountable over the southern border. Green told CNN he has a “five-phase plan” to delve into the issue.

“And if it turns out that (impeachment) is necessary, we’ll hand that over to Judiciary,” Green said. “We’ll have a fact-finding role.”

There’s also been talk of holding field hearings at the southern border, while Republicans plan to keep making visits there, as they did in the last Congress.

Jordan told reporters that the border problems will likely be one of his first hearings as chairman of the Judiciary Committee. But a source close to Jordan, who has become a close McCarthy ally, cautioned that they will not move ahead with impeachment unless the party is fully on board

And it’s clear that House Republicans are not yet in agreement on the issue.

Freshman Rep. Mike Lawler, who represents a Biden-won district in New York, told CNN shortly before being sworn in: “I think the top priority is to deal with inflation and the cost of living. … I don’t want to see what we saw during the Trump administration, where Democrats just went after the President and the administration incessantly.”

But there are some Republicans in Biden districts already lining up behind impeachment articles for Mayorkas, suggesting the politics could be moving in the GOP’s direction.

Freshman Rep. Nick Langworthy, another New York Republican, is among the 26 co-sponsors who have signed on to Fallon’s impeachment articles so far.

And another freshman New York Republican from a swing district, Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, has also expressed support for impeaching Mayorkas.

D’Esposito contended that many Customs and Border Protection agents are tired of the leadership from the top.

“They are the ones that will tell you flat out that Secretary Mayorkas is not living (up) to his oath and he is failing to secure our homeland,” he added.

And South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace, also a Republican who hails from a swing district, said Mayorkas needs to go.

“When you raise your hand and take an oath to protect our country’s border, and you intentionally and willfully neglect to do that job, you should lose it,” said Mace, who pointed to the influx of drugs across the southern border. “Either way, Secretary Mayorkas has to go.”

House Republicans who have long been itching to impeach Mayorkas have been trying to keep the pressure on their leadership, holding a news conference last month and urging McCarthy to more explicitly spell out where he stands on the issue before they voted him speaker.

McCarthy traveled to the southern border shortly after the November election, where he called on Mayorkas to resign and threatened him with a potential impeachment inquiry, though he has not explicitly promised he would go that route.

But even if an impeachment resolution is approved in the House, winning a two-thirds majority in the Senate to convict Mayorkas has virtually no chance of succeeding. Some Senate Republicans, such as Senate GOP Whip John Thune of South Dakota, were noncommittal about backing such a move. And Democrats are roundly dismissing the idea.

“A wonderfully constructive action,” Sen. Chris Coons, a Delaware Democrat, said sarcastically when asked about the impeachment talk.

Coons quickly added: “I think that’d be an enormous waste of time.”

This story has been updated with additional developments Tuesday.

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US

Siamak Namazi: American held in Iran launches hunger strike and writes to Biden asking him to do more for detainees

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Washington
CNN
 — 

An American wrongfully detained in Iran is calling on President Joe Biden to take notice of US detainees there, launching a hunger strike Monday to mark seven years since he was left behind in a prisoner swap that brought other Americans home.

In a letter to Biden, Siamak Namazi called on the US president to think of him every day for the seven days he intends to carry out the hunger strike commemorating the grim milestone.

“In the past I implored you to reach for your moral compass and find the resolve to bring the US hostages in Iran home. To no avail. Not only do we remain Iran’s prisoners, but you have not so much as granted our families a meeting,” wrote Namazi, who is one of three Americans who remain wrongfully detained in Iran. Emad Shargi and Morad Tahbaz have also been imprisoned there for years.

“All I want sir, is one minute of your days’ time for the next seven days devoted to thinking about the tribulations of the U.S. hostages in Iran,” Namazi wrote to Biden. “Just a single minute of your time for each year of my life that I lost in Evin prison after the U.S. Government could have saved me but didn’t. That is all.”

“Alas, given I am in this cage all I have to offer you in return is my additional suffering. Therefore, I will deny myself food for the same seven days, in the hope that by doing so you won’t deny me this small request,” he said.

Namazi was blocked from leaving Iran after visiting in July 2015 and underwent months of interrogations before being arrested in October 2015. He was not included in the prisoner swap with Iran in January 2016 that led to the release of Washington Post journalist Jason Rezaian, Marine veteran Amir Hekmati and Christian pastor Saeed Abedini. A fifth American was also separately released at that time.

“When the Obama Administration unconscionably left me in peril and freed the other American citizens Iran held hostage on January 16, 2016, the U.S. Government promised my family to have me safely home within weeks,” Namazi wrote in his letter Monday. “Yet seven years and two presidents later, I remain caged in Tehran’s notorious Evin prison, holding that long overdue IOU along with the unenviable title of the longest held Iranian-American hostage in history.”

A National Security Council spokesperson said the Biden administration remains “committed to securing the freedom of Siamak Namazi and we are working tirelessly to bring him home along with all US citizens who are wrongfully detained in Iran, including Emad Shargi and Morad Tahbaz.”

The spokesperson added that it is “outrageous” for Iran to detain US citizens for political leverage.

“Our priority is bringing all our wrongfully detained citizens home safely and as soon as possible and resolving the cases of missing and abducted US citizens,” the spokesperson said.

The US does not have diplomatic relations with the Iranian regime, though it has called on the government there to release the detained Americans. Tensions between Tehran and the West have further ratcheted in the wake of brutal crackdowns against protests in Iran and the executions of protesters. Over the weekend, Western governments condemned the execution of Alireza Akbari, a dual British-Iranian citizen who was hanged after being accused of espionage and corruption.

Namazi’s brother, Babak Namazi, told CNN that this week is especially painful for his family every year.

“It’s just a horrific week, as to think that seven years, seven whole years have gone by, which could have been avoided if at that time Siamak would have been included with the five other Americans,” Babak said.

In February 2016, Namazi’s father Baquer was lured to Iran under the false premise that he would be able to see his son. He was instead immediately taken into custody at that time. Siamak and Baquer Namazi were sentenced to 10 years in prison in October 2016. Baquer was released from Iran after more than six years in October 2022. That same month, Siamak was granted furlough from Evin Prison, but was forced to return a short time later.

Babak said his “family is of course gravely concerned for Siamak’s health and distraught that he has resorted to such desperate measures” as a hunger strike.”

“President Biden, Siamak is begging you, my family is imploring you. Please, please, take what it takes to make those courageous decisions that we know you are capable of,” Babak told CNN.

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World

Biden Administration to Ask Congress to Approve F-16 Sale to Turkey

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The Biden administration is preparing to seek congressional approval for a $20 billion sale of new F-16 jet fighters to Turkey along with a separate sale of next-generation F-35 warplanes to Greece, in what would be among the largest foreign weapons sales in recent years, according to U.S. officials.

Administration officials intend the prospect of the sale to prod Turkey to sign off on Finland and Sweden’s accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which Ankara has blocked over objections to their ties to Kurdish separatist groups. Congress’s approval of the sale is contingent on Turkey’s acquiescence, administration officials said. The two countries ended decades of neutrality when they decided to join NATO last year in reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The sale to Turkey, which the administration has been considering for more than a year, is larger than expected. It includes 40 new aircraft and kits to overhaul 79 of Turkey’s existing F-16 fleet, according to officials familiar with the proposals.

Congressional notification of the deal will roughly coincide with a visit to Washington next week by Turkey’s Foreign Minister

Mevlut Cavusoglu.

The sale to Turkey also includes more than 900 air-to-air missiles and 800 bombs, one of the officials said.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has faced U.S. pressure to approve NATO expansion.



Photo:

adem altan/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The separate sale to Greece, which was requested by the Greek government in June 2022, includes at least 30 new F-35s. The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is the U.S.’s most advanced jet fighter. While officials described the timing of the notifications for both Turkey and Greece as coincidental, it could quell protests from Athens over the F-16 sale if its request is also granted. Greece and Turkey are historic regional rivals and a sale to Turkey alone would likely draw swift condemnation from Athens.

The potential sale of the aircraft could have far-reaching implications for Washington’s efforts to shore up ties with a pair of NATO allies amid the Western response to Russia’s assault on Ukraine.

A State Department spokesman declined to comment on potential arms transfers as a matter of policy until and unless they are formally notified to Congress. Congress has never successfully blocked a foreign arms sale requested by the White House.

The proposed deal with Turkey comes at a moment of tension in U.S.-Turkish relations, with Washington also attempting to convince President Recep

Tayyip Erdogan

to do more to enforce sanctions on Russia and to approve the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO.

The proposal also sets up a possible showdown with some congressional leaders who have vowed to oppose weapons sales to Turkey. Sen.

Bob Menendez,

a Democrat from New Jersey who is the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has said he wouldn’t approve any F-16 sale to Turkey, citing human-rights concerns.

In recent months, Mr. Erdogan has also threatened to launch a new military incursion against Kurdish militants in Syria. Last month a Turkish court also convicted the mayor of Istanbul, a popular opponent of Mr. Erdogan, of insulting public officials in what human rights groups said was part of a crackdown on the Turkish opposition. The Turkish government says its courts are independent.

Under U.S. arms-export laws, Congress will have 30 days to review the deal. If Congress wants to block the deal it must pass a joint resolution of disapproval. Congress can also pass legislation to block or modify a sale at any time until the delivery.

The Biden administration is looking to sell at least 30 new F-35 jet fighters to Greece.



Photo:

robert atanasovski/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

U.S. officials say they are encouraging Mr. Erdogan to drop his opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. One official characterized the F-16s as the “carrot on a stick” to get Turkey to agree.

This, officials said, could ease opposition to the sale among some members of Congress. Officials within the State Department have argued for months that the expansion was imperative to NATO’s collective security. However, officials expect that while the Greece package could sail through Congress, the F-16s may be delayed over some members’ reluctance to embolden Ankara with the additional firepower.

Mr. Erdogan first threatened to veto the two countries’ entrance over their ties to Kurdish militant groups in Iraq and Syria. Turkey has fought a slow-burning war with Kurdish armed groups for decades in a conflict that has left tens of thousands dead.

NATO leaders say that Finland and Sweden have addressed Turkey’s concerns, upholding an agreement signed last year that called for both countries to evaluate Turkish extradition requests and drop restrictions on arms sales to Ankara.

Turkish officials say that Sweden hasn’t done enough to uphold its obligations to Turkey, citing what they say is continuing activity by the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party in Sweden. The Turkish government this week summoned Sweden’s ambassador over a demonstration in Stockholm in which protesters hung a puppet of Mr. Erdogan by its feet. The Turkish president’s hard line against Sweden has broad support within Turkey, including among opposition parties, who have long opposed what they see as a permissive approach to Kurdish militant groups in Europe.

The timing of a vote on NATO expansion in the Turkish parliament will also depend on Turkey’s national election this year, in which Mr. Erdogan faces a close race amid public discontent over the country’s struggling economy.

The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The Biden administration remains cautiously optimistic that Turkey will eventually come around on Finland and Sweden. U.S. officials said last year that there would be no quid pro quo for Turkey’s approval of the NATO expansion, and said that the timing of the F-16 sale was dependent on the administration’s own internal process to complete the deal.

The proposed sales also come amid heightened tensions between Turkey and Greece, two longtime adversaries who have traded threats over the past year in the eastern Mediterranean.

Turkey was originally a participant in the U.S.’s cutting-edge F-35 program but was expelled after Mr. Erdogan approved the purchase of Russia’s S-400 air defense system. The U.S. government said the Russian weapons system could potentially hack the F-35.

Biden administration officials have argued that selling F-16s to Turkey could help restore ties with the country, which maintains the second-largest army in NATO.

Under Mr. Erdogan, Turkey has played an important role in the Ukraine crisis, facilitating negotiations over prisoner exchanges and helping to broker an agreement that allowed Ukraine to resume its exports of grain through Black Sea ports. Mr. Erdogan’s close relationship with Russia’s President

Vladimir Putin

has also raised concerns in Washington, with scrutiny of inflows of Russian money to Turkey, including oligarch assets.

Finland and Sweden have formally applied to join NATO, but Turkey has threatened to block them from joining. WSJ’s Shelby Holliday explains why Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sees the expansion as a threat to Turkey’s national security. (Video first published in May 2022). Photo composite: Sebastian Vega

—William Mauldin contributed to this article.

Write to Jared Malsin at jared.malsin@wsj.com and Vivian Salama at vivian.salama@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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US

Taylor Dudley: US Navy veteran released from Russian custody

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CNN
 — 

An American Navy veteran who has been detained in Russia for nearly a year was released from Russian custody on Thursday, his family’s spokesperson told CNN, after months of negotiations spearheaded by former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.

Taylor Dudley, 35, of Lansing, Michigan, was detained by Russian border patrol police in April 2022 after crossing from Poland into Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave which is territory governed by Moscow between Poland and Lithuania. He was in Poland attending a music festival, and it is not clear why he crossed the border.

Dudley’s detention – which the US government had not deemed as “wrongful,” or based on arbitrary and discriminatory motivations – had not been widely publicized before Thursday because his family wanted the negotiations for his release to remain private.

The Richardson Center for Global Engagement, a non-profit founded by Richardson, spearheaded the negotiations, family spokesperson Jonathan Franks told CNN. The former governor and diplomat has long worked to free Americans detained abroad, and his center played a role in securing the release of Trevor Reed, a US citizen and former Marine who had been wrongfully detained in Russia, last summer.

No exchange was made on the US side for Dudley, said Mickey Bergman, the center’s vice president and executive president.

The Steve Menzies Global Foundation and the US Embassy also helped to secure Dudley’s release, Franks said.

“Earlier today, Russian authorities released American Citizen Taylor Dudley, a 35-year-old Navy veteran, across the Polish border to Gov. Bill Richardson, his team, and a representative from the U.S. Embassy in Warsaw, a release the Richardson Center worked on diligently and quietly for more than 6 months with significant assistance from the Steve Menzies Global Foundation, from Hostage U.S., and from the James Foley Foundation. The family will be forever grateful for the work of all three.”

“The past 9 months have been difficult ones for the family and they ask the media to respect their privacy and give them the space to welcome Taylor home,” he added.

In a separate statement to CNN, Richardson said Dudley had been released at the Russia-Poland Bagrationovsk-Bezledy border crossing on Thursday, after nearly a year of negotiations. He also acknowledged the involvement of the State Department and the US Embassies in Moscow and Warsaw in helping to secure Dudley’s release.

“After six months of intensive work, it’s great to see this release of Taylor Dudley happen,” Richardson told CNN by phone on Thursday. “We worked it hard in Moscow and Kaliningrad and first raised it during our meetings with Russian officials on Brittney Griner and Paul Whelan and Trevor Reed.”

US citizens Griner and Reed have since been released, but Whelan is still in Russian custody. Richardson said he and his team are still “pressing forward” in negotiations with Russia to secure Whelan’s release.

“There are many low-profile Americans that deserve freedoms, too,” Richardson said. “In other words, there are many around the world that don’t have fame but that still deserve America’s backing.”

US-Russia relations are at an all-time low amid Moscow’s war in Ukraine and US sanctions on the Kremlin.

Several US citizens remain detained in Russia, including Whelan, a former US Marine who is designated as wrongfully detained. He was arrested in Russia in December 2018 and sentenced to 16 years in prison. Last year, the US proposed trading Whelan and Griner, an American basketball star, in a prisoner swap for arms dealer Viktor Bout, but Russia only agreed to release Griner.

This story has been updated with additional information.

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World

Taiwan: War game simulation suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries

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CNN
 — 

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026 would result in thousands of casualties among Chinese, United States, Taiwanese and Japanese forces, and it would be unlikely to result in a victory for Beijing, according to a prominent independent Washington think tank, which conducted war game simulations of a possible conflict that is preoccupying military and political leaders in Asia and Washington.

A war over Taiwan could leave a victorious US military in as crippled a state as the Chinese forces it defeated.

At the end of the conflict, at least two US aircraft carriers would lie at the bottom of the Pacific and China’s modern navy, which is the largest in the world, would be in “shambles.”

Those are among the conclusions the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), made after running what it claims is one of the most extensive war-game simulations ever conducted on a possible conflict over Taiwan, the democratically ruled island of 24 million that the Chinese Communist Party claims as part of its sovereign territory despite never having controlled it.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has refused to rule out the use of military force to bring the island under Beijing’s control.

CNN reviewed an advance copy of the report – titled “The First Battle of the Next War” – on the two dozen war scenarios run by CSIS, which said the project was necessary because previous government and private war simulations have been too narrow or too opaque to give the public and policymakers a true look at how conflict across the Taiwan Strait might play out.

“There’s no unclassified war game out there looking at the US-China conflict,” said Mark Cancian, one of the three project leaders and a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Of the games that are unclassified, they’re usually only done once or twice.”

CSIS ran this war game 24 times to answer two fundamental questions: would the invasion succeed and at what cost?

The likely answers to those two questions are no and enormous, the CSIS report said.

“The United States and Japan lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of service members. Such losses would damage the US global position for many years,” the report said. In most scenarios, the US Navy lost two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large surface combatants. Approximately 3,200 US troops would be killed in three weeks of combat, nearly half of what the US lost in two decades of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“China also suffers heavily. Its navy is in shambles, the core of its amphibious forces is broken, and tens of thousands of soldiers are prisoners of war,” it said. The report estimated China would suffer about 10,000 troops killed and lose 155 combat aircraft and 138 major ships.

– Source:
CNN
” data-fave-thumbnails=”{“big”:{“uri”:”https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/220417075511-essing-japan-defense-pkg.jpg?c=16×9&q=h_540,w_960,c_fill”},”small”:{“uri”:”https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/220417075511-essing-japan-defense-pkg.jpg?c=16×9&q=h_540,w_960,c_fill”}}” data-vr-video=”” data-show-name=”” data-show-url=”” data-check-event-based-preview=”” data-network-id=”” data-details=””>

Japan expands defense of its southern front line to counter China (April 2022)

The scenarios paint a bleak future for Taiwan, even if a Chinese invasion doesn’t succeed.

“While Taiwan’s military is unbroken, it is severely degraded and left to defend a damaged economy on an island without electricity and basic services,” the report. The island’s army would suffer about 3,500 casualties, and all 26 destroyers and frigates in its navy will be sunk, the report said.

Japan is likely to lose more than 100 combat aircraft and 26 warships while US military bases on its home territory come under Chinese attack, the report found.

But CSIS said it did not want its report to imply a war over Taiwan “is inevitable or even probable.”

“The Chinese leadership might adopt a strategy of diplomatic isolation, gray zone pressure, or economic coercion against Taiwan,” it said.

Dan Grazier, a senior defense policy fellow at the Project on Government Oversight (POGO), sees an outright Chinese invasion of Taiwan as extremely unlikely. Such a military operation would immediately disrupt the imports and exports upon which the Chinese economy relies for its very survival, Grazier told CNN, and interrupting this trade risks the collapse of the Chinese economy in short order. China relies on imports of food and fuel to drive their economic engine, Grazier said, and they have little room to maneuver.

“The Chinese are going to do everything they can in my estimation to avoid a military conflict with anybody,” Grazier said. To challenge the United States for global dominance, they’ll use industrial and economic power instead of military force.

But Pentagon leaders have labeled China as America’s “pacing threat,” and last year’s China Military Power report mandated by Congress said “the PLA increased provocative and destabilizing actions in and around the Taiwan Strait, to include increased flights into Taiwan’s claimed air defense identification zone and conducting exercises focused on the potential seizure of one of Taiwan’s outlying islands.”

In August, the visit of then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the island prompted a wide-ranging display of PLA military might, which included sending missiles over the island as well as into the waters of Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

Since then, Beijing has stepped up aggressive military pressure tactics on the island, sending fighter jets across the median line of the Taiwan Strait, the body of water separating Taiwan and China and into the island’s air defense identification zone – a buffer of airspace commonly referred to as an ADIZ.

And speaking about Taiwan at the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress in October, Chinese leader Xi Jinping won large applause when he said China would “strive for peaceful reunification” — but then gave a grim warning, saying “we will never promise to renounce the use of force and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary.”

The Biden administration has been steadfast in its support for the island as provided by the Taiwan Relations Act, which said Washington will provide the island with the means to defend itself without committing US troops to that defense.

The recently signed National Defense Authorization Act commits the US to a program to modernize Taiwan’s military and provides for $10 billion of security assistance over five years, a strong sign of long-term bipartisan support for the island.

Biden, however, has said more than once that US military personnel would defend Taiwan if the Chinese military were to launch an invasion, even as the Pentagon has insisted there is no change in Washington’s “One China” policy.

Under the “One China” policy, the US acknowledges China’s position that Taiwan is part of China, but has never officially recognized Beijing’s claim to the self-governing island.

“Wars happen even when objective analysis might indicate that the attacker might not be successful,” said Cancian.

The CSIS report said for US troops to prevent China from ultimately taking control of Taiwan, there were four constants that emerged among the 24 war game iterations it ran:

Taiwan’s ground forces must be able to contain Chinese beachheads; the US must be able to use its bases in Japan for combat operations; the US must have long-range anti-ship missiles to hit the PLA Navy from afar and “en masse”; and the US needs to fully arm Taiwan before shooting starts and jump into any conflict with its own forces immediately.

“There is no ‘Ukraine model’ for Taiwan,” the report said, referring to how US and Western aid slowly trickled in to Ukraine well after Russia’s invasion of its neighbor started and no US or NATO troops are actively fighting against Russia.

“Once the war begins, it’s impossible to get any troops or supplies onto Taiwan, so it’s a very different situation from Ukraine where the United States and its allies have been able to send supplies continuously to Ukraine,” said Cancian. “Whatever the Taiwanese are going to fight the war with, they have to have that when the war begins.”

Washington will need to begin acting soon if it’s to meet some of the CSIS recommendations for success in a Taiwan conflict, the think tank said.

Those include, fortifying US bases in Japan and Guam against Chinese missile attacks; moving its naval forces to smaller and more survivable ships; prioritizing submarines; prioritizing sustainable bomber forces over fighter forces; but producing more cheaper fighters; and pushing Taiwan toward a similar strategy, arming itself with more simple weapons platforms rather than expensive ships that are unlikely to survive a Chinese first strike.

Those policies would make winning less costly for the US military, but the toll would still be high, the CSIS report said.

“The United States might win a pyrrhic victory, suffering more in the long run than the ‘defeated’ Chinese.”

“Victory is not everything,” the report said.

– Source:
CNN
” data-fave-thumbnails=”{“big”:{“uri”:”https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/220819143103-china-amb-nicholas-burns-vpx.jpg?c=16×9&q=h_540,w_960,c_fill”},”small”:{“uri”:”https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/220819143103-china-amb-nicholas-burns-vpx.jpg?c=16×9&q=h_540,w_960,c_fill”}}” data-vr-video=”” data-show-name=”” data-show-url=”” data-check-event-based-preview=”” data-network-id=”” data-details=””>

Breakdown in US-China relations a ‘manufactured crisis,’ US ambassador says (August 2022)

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Business

Hiring, Wage Gains Eased in December, Pointing to a Cooling Labor Market in 2023

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The U.S. labor market is losing momentum as hiring and wage growth cooled in December, showing the effects of slower economic growth and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increases.

After two straight years of record-setting payroll growth following the pandemic-related disruptions, the labor market is starting to show signs of stress. That suggests 2023 could bring slower hiring or outright job declines as the overall economy slows or tips into recession.

Employers added 223,000 jobs in December, the smallest gain in two years, the Labor Department said Friday. Average hourly earnings were up 4.6% in December from the previous year, the narrowest increase since mid-2021, and down from a March peak of 5.6%.

All told, employers added 4.5 million jobs in 2022, the second-best year of job creation after 2021, when the labor market rebounded from Covid-19 shutdowns and added 6.7 million jobs. Last year’s gains were concentrated in the first seven months of the year. More recent data and a wave of tech and finance-industry layoffs suggest the labor market, while still vibrant, is cooling.

“I do expect the economy to slow noticeably by June, and in the second half of the year we’ll see a greater pace of slowing if not outright contraction,” said

Joe Brusuelas,

chief economist at RSM U.S.

Friday’s report sent markets rallying as investors anticipated it would cause the Fed to slow its pace of rate increases. The central bank’s next policy meeting starts Jan. 31. The Fed’s aggressive rate increases aimed at combating inflation didn’t significantly cool 2022 hiring, but revisions to wage growth showed recent gains weren’t as brisk as previously thought.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 700.53 points, or 2.13%, on Friday. The S&P 500 Index was up 2.28% and NASDAQ Composite Index advanced 2.56%. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield declined 0.15 percentage point to 3.57%. Yields fall as bond prices rise.

The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in December from 3.6% in November, matching readings earlier in 2022 and just before the pandemic began as a half-century low. Fed officials said last month the jobless rate would rise in 2023. December job gains were led by leisure and hospitality, healthcare and construction.

Historically low unemployment and solid hiring, however, might mask some signs of weakness. The labor force participation rate, which measures the share of adults working or looking for work, rose slightly to 62.3% in December but is still well below prepandemic levels, one possible factor that could make it harder for employers to fill open positions.

The average workweek has declined over the past two years and in December stood at 34.3 hours, the lowest since early 2020.

Hiring in temporary help services has fallen by 111,000 over the past five months, with job losses accelerating. That could be a sign that employers, faced with slowing demand, are reducing their employees’ hours and pulling back from temporary labor to avoid laying off workers.

The tech-heavy information sector lost 5,000 jobs in December, the Labor Department report showed. Retail saw a 9,000 rise in payrolls, snapping three straight months of declines.

Tech companies cut more jobs in 2022 than they did at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to layoffs.fyi, which tracks industry job cuts. On Wednesday,

Salesforce Inc.

said it would cut 10% of its workforce, unwinding a hiring spree during the pandemic. The Wall Street Journal reported that

Amazon.com Inc.

would lay off 18,000 people, roughly 1.2% of its total workforce. Other companies, such as

Facebook

parent

Meta Platforms Inc.,

DoorDash Inc.

and

Snap Inc.,

have also recently cut positions.

Companies in the interest-rate-sensitive housing and finance sectors, including

Redfin Corp.

,

Morgan Stanley

and

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.,

have also moved to reduce staff.


Months where overall jobs gained

Months where overall jobs declined

By the end of 2022, the U.S. had added nearly 2 million jobs since the end of 2019

More than 20 million jobs were lost near the start of the pandemic

Employment returns to prepandemic level

A monthly gain of more than 4 million jobs

Months where

overall jobs gained

Months where

overall jobs declined

By the end of 2022, the U.S. had added nearly 2 million jobs since the end of 2019

More than 20 million jobs were lost near the start of the pandemic

Employment returns to prepandemic level

A monthly gain of more than 4 million jobs

Months where

overall jobs gained

Months where

overall jobs declined

By the end of 2022, the U.S. had added nearly 2 million jobs since the end of 2019

More than 20 million jobs were lost near the start of the pandemic

Employment returns to prepandemic level

A monthly gain of more than 4 million jobs

Months where

overall jobs gained

Months where

overall jobs declined

By the end of 2022, the U.S. had added nearly 2 million jobs since the end of 2019

More than 20 million jobs were lost near the start of the pandemic

Employment returns to prepandemic level

A monthly gain of more than 4 million jobs

Months where

overall jobs gained

Months where

overall jobs declined

By the end of 2022, the U.S. had added nearly 2 million jobs since the end of 2019

More than 20 million jobs were lost near the start of the pandemic

Employment returns to prepandemic level

A monthly gain of more than 4 million jobs

Other data released this week point to a slowing U.S. economy. New orders for manufactured goods fell a seasonally adjusted 1.8% in November, the Commerce Department said Friday. Business surveys showed a contraction in economic activity in December, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Manufacturing firms posted the second-straight contraction following 29 months of expansion, and services firms snapped 30 straight months of growth in December.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal last fall saw a 63% probability of a U.S. recession in 2023. They saw the unemployment rate rising to 4.7% by December 2023.

“We’ve obviously been in a situation over the past few months where employment growth has been holding up surprisingly well and is slowing very gradually,” said

Andrew Hunter,

senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics. “There are starting to be a few signs that we’re maybe starting to see a bit more of a sharp deterioration.”

Max Rottersman, a 61-year-old independent software developer, said he had been very busy with consulting jobs during much of the pandemic. But that changed over the summer when work suddenly dried up.

“I’m very curious to see whether I’m in high demand in the next few months or whether—what I sort of expect will happen—there will be tons of firing,” he said.

Despite some signs of cooling, the labor market remains exceptionally strong. On Wednesday, the Labor Department reported that there were 10.5 million job openings at the end of November, unchanged from October, well more than the number of unemployed Americans seeking work.

Some of those open jobs are at Caleb Rice’s home-renovation business in Calhoun, Tenn., which has been consistently busy since the start of the pandemic. The small company has raised pay and gone to a four-day week in an effort to hold on to workers.

“If I could get three more skilled hands right now, I’d be comfortable,” Mr. Rice said. “The way it goes is I’ll hire five, two will show up and of those two one won’t be worth a flip.”

Fed officials have been trying to engineer a gradual cooling of the labor market by raising interest rates. Officials are worried that a too-strong labor market could lead to more rapid wage increases, which in turn could put upward pressure on inflation as firms raise prices to offset higher labor costs.

The central bank raised rates at each of its past seven meetings and has signaled more rate increases this year to bring inflation down from near 40-year highs. Fed officials will likely take comfort in the slowdown in wage gains, which could prompt them to raise rates at a slower pace, Mr. Brusuelas, the economist, said.

“We’re closer to the peak in the Fed policy rate than we were prior to the report, and the Fed can strongly consider a further slowing in the pace of its hikes,” he said. “We could plausibly see a 25-basis-point hike versus a 50-basis-point hike at the Feb. 1 meeting.”

Write to David Harrison at david.harrison@wsj.com

Corrections & Amplifications
A graphic in an earlier version of this article showing the change in nonfarm payrolls since the end of 2019 was incorrectly labeled as change since January 2020. (Corrected on Jan. 6)

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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World

Ukraine: Kyiv dismisses Putin’s call for ceasefire as ‘hypocrisy’

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CNN
 — 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered his defense minister to implement a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine for 36 hours this week to allow Orthodox Christians to attend Christmas services, according to a Kremlin statement Thursday. But the proposal was swiftly dismissed as “hypocrisy” by Ukrainian officials.

Putin’s order came after the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill of Moscow, called for a ceasefire between January 6 and January 7, when many Orthodox Christians celebrate Christmas.

But Ukrainian officials voiced skepticism about the temporary ceasefire, saying Moscow just wanted a pause to gather reserves, equipment and ammunition.

During his nightly address on Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia aims to use Orthodox Christmas “as a cover” to resupply and stop Ukrainian advances in the eastern Donbas region.

“What will this accomplish? Only another increase in the casualty count,” he added.

Serhiy Haidai, head of the Luhansk regional military administration, told Ukrainian television: “Regarding this truce – they just want to get some kind of a pause for a day or two, to pull even more reserves, bring some more ammo.”

“Russia cannot be trusted. Not a single word they say,” Haidai added.

Now in its 11th month, the battle that many experts thought would be over within days or weeks has become a grueling war.

Both sides have taken blows in recent weeks: Ukraine’s economy shrank by more than 30% last year, with Russian missile strikes pummeling civilian infrastructure, leaving many without heat in the height of winter. Meanwhile, Ukrainian attacks on Russian barracks have killed a significant number of Russian troops and sparked controversy within Russia.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak responded to Putin’s move on Twitter by saying that Russia must leave “occupied territories” in Ukraine before any “temporary truce.”

“First. Ukraine doesn’t attack foreign territory and doesn’t kill civilians. As RF [Russian Federation] does … Second. RF must leave the occupied territories – only then will it have a ‘temporary truce’. Keep hypocrisy to yourself,” Podolyak said.

The proposal for a temporary truce also raised eyebrows among the international community.

US President Joe Biden expressed skepticism on Thursday, telling reporters that he was “reluctant to respond anything Putin says. I found it interesting. He was ready to bomb hospitals and nurseries and churches on the 25th and New Year’s.”

He continued, “I mean, I think he’s trying to find some oxygen.”

US State Department spokesperson Ned Price described it as “cynical” and that the US had “little faith in the intentions behind” Russia’s proposed ceasefire.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Thursday also warned that the promise of a ceasefire would not bring “either freedom or security” to the people living under Moscow’s brutal war.

“If Putin wanted peace, he would take his soldiers home, and the war would be over. But apparently, he wants to continue the war after a short break,” she said in a tweet.

Putin’s order comes after he spoke with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – who has attempted to position himself as a broker between the Russian president and the West – where Putin said he was open to “serious dialogue” regarding Ukraine, but Kyiv must accept the “new territorial realities,” according to a Kremlin statement.

The full statement from the Kremlin on Thursday read: “Taking into account the appeal of His Holiness Patriarch Kirill, I instruct the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation to introduce from 12:00 January 6, 2023 until 24:00 January 7, 2023, a ceasefire along the entire line of contact between the parties in Ukraine.

“Based on the fact that a large number of citizens professing Orthodoxy live in the combat areas, we call on the Ukrainian side to declare a ceasefire and give them the opportunity to attend services on Christmas Eve, as well as on the Day of the Nativity of Christ.”

Kirill has been a vocal supporter of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and gave a sermon in September in which he said that “military duty washes away all sins.”

The leader of the Russian Orthodox Church has also been locked in a feud with Pope Francis, who has described the invasion of Ukraine as Russian “expansionism and imperialism.”

And in May, the Pope urged Patriarch Kirill not to “become Putin’s altar boy.”

In November, a branch of Ukraine’s Orthodox church announced that it would allow its churches to celebrate Christmas on December 25, rather than January 7, as is traditional in Orthodox congregations.

The announcement by the Kyiv-headquartered Orthodox Church of Ukraine widened the rift between the Russian Orthodox Church and other Orthodox believers.

In recent years a large part of the Orthodox community in Ukraine has moved away from Moscow, a movement accelerated by the conflict Russia stoked in eastern Ukraine beginning in 2014.

Ukrainians, who have suffered nearly a year of conflict, expressed distrust of Putin’s announcement.

In the southern region of Kherson, Pavlo Skotarenko doesn’t expect much to change. “They shell us every day, people die in Kherson every day. And this temporary measure won’t change anything,” he said.

From the frontlines in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region, a Ukrainian soldier told CNN that the temporary ceasefire announcement looked like an effort to clean up Russia’s image.

“I do not think that this is done for some military tactical purpose, one day will not solve much,” the Ukrainian soldier, who goes by the call sign Archer, told CNN by phone.

“Perhaps this is done to make the image of the whole of Russia a little more human, because so many atrocities are constantly emerging, and this could earn them few points of support from the people,” the soldier said.

And in the capital Kyiv, where Russian attacks during New Year soured even the most modest celebrations, Halyna Hladka said she saw the temporary ceasefire as an attempt by Russians to win time.

“Russia has already shown active use of faith in numerous kinds of manipulations. And besides, in almost a year of war, Russia has not behaved itself as a country capable of adhering to promises,” she said.

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World

CNN Exclusive: A single Iranian attack drone found to contain parts from more than a dozen US companies

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Washington
CNN
 — 

Parts made by more than a dozen US and Western companies were found inside a single Iranian drone downed in Ukraine last fall, according to a Ukrainian intelligence assessment obtained exclusively by CNN.

The assessment, which was shared with US government officials late last year, illustrates the extent of the problem facing the Biden administration, which has vowed to shut down Iran’s production of drones that Russia is launching by the hundreds into Ukraine.

CNN reported last month that the White House has created an administration-wide task force to investigate how US and Western-made technology – ranging from smaller equipment like semiconductors and GPS modules to larger parts like engines – has ended up in Iranian drones.

Of the 52 components Ukrainians removed from the Iranian Shahed-136 drone, 40 appear to have been manufactured by 13 different American companies, according to the assessment.

The remaining 12 components were manufactured by companies in Canada, Switzerland, Japan, Taiwan, and China, according to the assessment.

The options for combating the issue are limited. The US has for years imposed tough export control restrictions and sanctions to prevent Iran from obtaining high-end materials. Now US officials are looking at enhanced enforcement of those sanctions, encouraging companies to better monitor their own supply chains and, perhaps most importantly, trying to identify the third-party distributors taking these products and re-selling them to bad actors.

NSC spokesperson Adrienne Watson told CNN in a statement that “We are looking at ways to target Iranian UAV production through sanctions, export controls, and talking to private companies whose parts have been used in the production. We are assessing further steps we can take in terms of export controls to restrict Iran’s access to technologies used in drones.”

There is no evidence suggesting that any of those companies are running afoul of US sanctions laws and knowingly exporting their technology to be used in the drones. Even with many companies promising increased monitoring, controlling where these highly ubiquitous parts end up in the global market is often very difficult for manufacturers, experts told CNN. Companies may also not know what they are looking for if the US government has not caught up with and sanctioned the actors buying and selling the products for illicit purposes.

And the Ukrainian intelligence assessment is further proof that despite sanctions, Iran is still finding an abundance of commercially available technology. For example, the company that built the downed drone, Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industries Corporation (HESA), has been under US sanctions since 2008.

One major issue is that it is far easier for Russian and Iranian officials to set up shell companies to use to purchase the equipment and evade sanctions than it is for Western governments to uncover those front companies, which can sometimes take years, experts said.

“This is a game of Whack-a-Mole. And the United States government needs to get incredibly good at Whack-a- Mole, period,” said former Pentagon official Gregory Allen, who now serves as Director of the Artificial Intelligence Governance Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “This is a core competency of the US national security establishment – or it had better become one.”

Allen, who recently co-authored an investigation into the efficacy of US export controls, said ultimately, “there is no substitute for robust, in-house capabilities in the US government.”

He cautioned that it is not an easy job. The microelectronics industry relies heavily on third party distributors and resellers that are difficult to track, and the microchips and other small devices ending up in so many of the Iranian and Russian drones are not only inexpensive and widely available, they are also easily hidden.

“Why do smugglers like diamonds?” Allen said. “Because they’re small, lightweight, and worth a ton of money. And unfortunately, computer chips have similar properties.” Success won’t necessarily be measured in stopping 100% of transactions, he added, but rather in making it more difficult and expensive for bad actors to get what they need.

The rush to stop Iran from manufacturing the drones is growing more urgent as Russia continues to deploy them across Ukraine with relentless ferocity, targeting both civilian areas and key infrastructure. Russia is also preparing to establish its own factory to produce them with Iran’s help, according to US officials. On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukrainian forces had shot down more than 80 Iranian drones in just two days.

Zelensky also said that Ukraine had intelligence that Russia “is planning a prolonged attack with Shaheds,” betting that it will lead to the “exhaustion of our people, our air defense, our energy sector.”

A separate probe of Iranian drones downed in Ukraine, conducted by the UK-based investigative firm Conflict Armament Research, found that 82% of the components had been manufactured by companies based in the US. 

Damien Spleeters, the Deputy Director of Operations at Conflict Armament Research, told CNN that sanctions will only be effective if governments continue to monitor what parts are being used and how they got there.

“Iran and Russia are going to try to go around those sanctions and will try to change their acquisition channels,” Spleeters said. “And that’s precisely what we want to focus on: getting in the field and opening up those systems, tracing the components, and monitoring for changes.”

Experts also told CNN that if the US government wants to beef up enforcement of the sanctions, it will need to devote more resources and hire more employees who can be on the ground to track the vendors and resellers of these products.

“Nobody has really thought about investing more in agencies like the Bureau of Industry Security, which were really sleepy parts of the DC national security establishment for a few decades,” Allen, of CSIS, said, referring to a branch of the Commerce Department that deals primarily with export controls enforcement. “And now, suddenly, they’re at the forefront of national security technology competition, and they’re not being resourced remotely in that vein.”

According to the Ukrainian assessment, among the US-made components found in the drone were nearly two dozen parts built by Texas Instruments, including microcontrollers, voltage regulators, and digital signal controllers; a GPS module by Hemisphere GNSS; a microprocessor by NXP USA Inc.; and circuit board components by Analog Devices and Onsemi. Also discovered were components built by International Rectifier – now owned by the German company Infineon – and the Swiss company U-Blox.

CNN sent emailed requests for comment last month to all the companies identified by the Ukrainians. The six that responded emphasized that they condemn any unauthorized use of their products, while noting that combating the diversion and misuse of their semiconductors and other microelectronics is an industry-wide challenge that they are working to confront.

“TI is not selling any products into Russia, Belarus or Iran,” Texas Instruments said in a statement. ” TI complies with applicable laws and regulations in the countries where we operate, and partners with law enforcement organizations as necessary and appropriate. Additionally, we do not support or condone the use of our products in applications they weren’t designed for.”

Gregor Rodehuser, a spokesperson for the German semiconductor manufacturer Infineon, told CNN that “our position is very clear: Infineon condemns the Russian aggression against Ukraine. It is a blatant violation of international law and an attack on the values of humanity.” He added that “apart from the direct business it proves difficult to control consecutive sales throughout the entire lifetime of a product. Nevertheless, we instruct our customers including distributors to only conduct consecutive sales in line with applicable rules.”

Analog Devices, a semiconductor company headquartered in Massachusetts, said in a statement that they are intensifying efforts “to identify and counter this activity, including implementing enhanced monitoring and audit processes, and taking enforcement action where appropriate…to help to reduce unauthorized resale, diversion, and unintended misuse of our products.”

Jacey Zuniga, director of corporate communications for the Austin, Texas-based semiconductor company NXP USA, said that the company “complies with all applicable export control restrictions and sanctions imposed by the countries in which we operate. Military applications are not a focus area for NXP. As a company, we are vehemently opposed to our products being used for human rights violations.”

Phoenix, Arizona-based semiconductor manufacturing company Onsemi also said it complies with “applicable export control and economic sanctions laws and regulations and does not sell directly or indirectly to Russia, Belarus or Iran nor to any foreign military organizations. We cooperate with law enforcement and government agencies as necessary and appropriate to demonstrate how Onsemi conducts business in accordance with all legal requirements and that we hold ourselves to the highest standards of ethical conduct.”

Swiss semiconductor manufacturer U-Blox also said in a statement that its products are for commercial use only, and that the use of its products for Russian military equipment “is in clear breach of u-blox’s conditions of sale applicable to customers and distributors alike.”

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World

Jordan king warns of ‘red lines’ in Jerusalem as Netanyahu returns to office

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Amman, Jordan
CNN
 — 

Jordan’s king says he is prepared for conflict should the status of Jerusalem’s holy sites change as Israel prepares to swear in what is likely to be the most right-wing government in its history.

King Abdullah II told CNN’s Becky Anderson in an exclusive interview this month that there is “concern” in his country about those in Israel trying to push for changes to his custodianship of the Muslim and Christian holy sites in Israeli-occupied East Jerusalem, warning that he has “red lines.”

“If people want to get into a conflict with us, we’re quite prepared,” he said. “I always like to believe that, let’s look at the glass half full, but we have certain red lines… And if people want to push those red lines, then we will deal with that.”

Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu’s incoming government is expected to be the most right-wing in Israel’s history and it includes controversial figures who were once considered to be on the extreme fringe of Israeli politics. This has caused concerns about the potential for an escalation in Israeli-Palestinian violence and for the future of Israel’s relations with its Arab neighbors and Western allies.

This year was already the deadliest for Palestinians and Israelis in nearly two decades, raising the specter of a new Palestinian uprising against Israel.

“We have to be concerned about a next intifada (uprising),” said the king. “And if that happens, that’s a complete breakdown of law and order and one that neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians will benefit from. I think there is a lot of concern from all of us in the region, including those in Israel that are on our side on this issue, to make sure that doesn’t happen.”

Israel captured East Jerusalem from Jordan in the 1967 war but signed a peace treaty with it in 1994 under which it formally recognized Amman’s special role at the city’s holy sites. But the two have since had an uneasy relationship, with Jordan regularly accusing Israel of violating the agreement that gave it control of the sites and barred non-Muslims from praying there.

Jordan’s Hashemite monarchy has been the custodian of Jerusalem’s holy sites since 1924 and sees itself as the guarantor of the religious rights of Muslims and Christians in the city.

Tensions are highest over the compound known to Muslims as the Haram Al Sharif, which is called the Temple Mount by Jews. The site includes the Al Aqsa Mosque, the third holiest site in Islam. The area is also the holiest site in Judaism. Politicians on the Israeli right often argue that Jews should also have a right to pray there.

One of the most controversial figures in Israel’s incoming government is Itamar Ben Gvir, who is set to become the national security minister and assume control over the police, including law enforcement at Jerusalem’s holy sites. Ben Gvir has a long history of inciting violence against Palestinians and Arabs. He has been convicted of inciting anti-Arab racism and supporting terrorism and has openly called for changing the status quo at the holy sites.

“I don’t think those individuals are under just a Jordanian microscope. They’re under an international microscope,” the king said, responding to a question about Ben Gvir’s views. “I have to believe that there’s a lot of people in Israel also that are concerned as much as we are.”

He refused to say how Jordan would respond to changes in the status of the holy sites. “At the end of the day, the Israeli people have the right to pick whoever they want to lead them… We will work with anybody and everybody as long as we can bring people together,” he said.

Of Jordan’s population of around 10 million, more than half is of Palestinian descent, including more than two million Palestinian refugees.

Jordan was the second Arab nation to normalize relations with Israel, after Egypt. But after a decades-long wait, Israel scored a major diplomatic victory in 2020 by gaining recognition from four more Arab states, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan.

The nation’s relationship with Israel is heavily scrutinized at home, with many opposing further strengthening of ties due to Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians.

Israel’s integration into the region is “extremely important” but it is “not going to happen unless there’s a future for the Palestinians,” the king said, pointing to the overwhelming support shown by Arab football fans for Palestinians at the Qatar FIFA World Cup.

The king has redoubled efforts to shed light on the status of Christians in the Middle East of late. In September, he proclaimed at the United Nations General Assembly in New York that Christianity in Jerusalem was “under fire,” a message the patriarchs and Heads of the Churches in Jerusalem endorsed.

Some churches in the Holy Land have also been sounding the alarm about the status of Christians there. In a Christmas message this week, the Heads of Churches in Jerusalem, a grouping of Palestinian churches, issued a statement decrying the “assault” on their exercise of religion and “unwarranted restrictions” on worship. In July, the Higher Presidential Committee of Church Affairs in Palestine issued a statement condemning an attack by “extremist Israeli settlers” on the Church of the Holy Spirit and the Greek Garden, accusing the Israeli government of complicity through “inaction” in holding the perpetrators to account.

Israeli foreign ministry spokesman Lior Haiat told CNN the Heads of Churches “have full access to every governmental authority for concerns they have,” adding that acts of violence “on any community are condemned by the government and investigated with the utmost seriousness by Israeli police.”

“The State of Israel remains committed to safeguarding freedom of religion and worship for all, including the Christian community, in Jerusalem and other holy sites,” he said.

King Abdullah told CNN that churches in Jerusalem face challenges from “policies on the ground,” causing the Christian community to come under pressure.

“This is not a national policy, but there are those that join governments that have very extremist views towards Muslims and Christians, as there are on the other side obviously, and we have to unify against that,” he said.

Christians in the Middle East are “part of our past, they’re part of our present, and they must be part of our future,” he added.

Jordan has become a safe haven for Middle Eastern Christians for the better part of the past two decades as neighboring countries have been embroiled in conflicts that have pushed some of the oldest Christian communities in the world to flee their homelands.

In December, the monarch launched a master plan to develop Bethany Beyond the Jordan, a UNESCO World Heritage Site where Christians believe Jesus was baptized. The plan aims to build lodging, museums and amphitheatres catering to as many as 1.5 million tourists per year.

“I think one of the things that people misunderstand about this place is how inclusive it is. Almost 15% of the visitors that come here are Muslim,” he told CNN. “So this is an opportunity to break down those barriers and to show how proud we are of not only our historical Christian heritage here in Jordan, but the relationship between Christianity and Islam.”

People in the Middle East “just want to move on with their lives,” said the monarch. “So, as challenging as 2022 was, and as difficult as the dangers of 2023 are, there’s an opportunity for us to move beyond.”

That can be done through regional integration, he said.

“I’ve gotten away from the feeling that politics are going to solve our problems. It’s economic dependency,” he said. “When I am invested in your success because your success is my success, at the end of the day means we can move forward.”

With additional reporting by CNN’s Mike Schwartz in Jerusalem.

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