Tag Archives: International Energy Agency

Germany Drops Opposition to Embargo on Russian Oil

BERLIN—Germany is now ready to stop buying Russian oil, clearing the way for a European Union ban on crude imports from Russia, government officials said.

Berlin had been one of the main opponents of sanctioning the EU’s oil-and-gas trade with Moscow.

However on Wednesday, German representatives to EU institutions lifted the country’s objection to a full Russian oil embargo provided Berlin was given sufficient time to secure alternative supplies, two officials said.

The German shift increases the likelihood that EU countries will agree on a phased-in embargo on Russian oil, with a decision possible as soon as next week, diplomats and officials say. However, how quickly the bloc ends its Russian oil purchases, and whether it also uses measures such as price caps or tariffs, is still being negotiated. The U.S. is pressing its European allies to avoid steps that could lead to a protracted increase in oil prices.

Europe’s debate on banning Russian oil has shifted decisively in recent days with Germany and some other countries taking practical steps to replace Russia with other suppliers. Some member states remain cautious about the economic impact of an oil embargo, including Hungary, Italy, Austria and Greece, diplomats say. All 27 EU governments must approve an oil ban.

The oil moves come as EU nations scramble to help member states Poland and Bulgaria make up for a natural gas shortfall after Russia stopped deliveries this week in reaction to what it said was the two countries’ refusal to pay for imports in rubles. The Kremlin demands EU buyers pay into special bank accounts where deposits would be converted from euros and dollars into rubles.

The EU pays state-controlled Russian firms around €1 billion, equivalent to $1.05 billion, a day for energy, according to estimates by Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank. Critics have said that these funds are bankrolling Russian President

Vladimir Putin’s

regime and its war in Ukraine.

The consequences of harsh economic sanctions against Russia are already being felt across the globe. WSJ’s Greg Ip joins other experts to explain the significance of what has happened so far and how the conflict might transform the global economy. Photo Illustration: Alexander Hotz

On Thursday, Gazprom PJSC, Russia’s biggest gas producer, said profit soared in 2021 on the back of higher gas and oil prices.

Senior officials from EU member states discussed oil sanctions at length on Wednesday and the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, will hold further discussions with EU countries in coming days before presenting a proposal probably early next week, officials and diplomats say.

U.S. Treasury Secretary

Janet Yellen

said last week that a full European oil embargo on Russia would push up international oil prices, hurting a fragile global economy, and might “actually have very little negative impact on Russia,” which would benefit from higher oil prices on its remaining exports. She suggested Europe could keep buying oil while restricting Russia’s access to payments, echoing talk in Europe of making payments into an escrow account.

The EU imports between 3 million and 3.5 million barrels of oil a day from Russia, sending just under $400 million in payments daily, according to Bruegel. That amounts to some 27% of EU oil imports. Oil and gas revenues accounted for 45% of Russia’s federal budget in 2021, according to the International Energy Agency.

Many companies have been self-sanctioning, according to analysts and traders, avoiding trade in Russian oil over reputational concerns and the risk that the Western pressure campaign could soon encompass Moscow’s energy exports. That is already contributing to a sharp fall in Russian oil exports, according to the IEA.

EU officials designing the next sanctions proposals have to factor in that it will take some European oil refineries time to adapt to receive non-Russian crude. They also acknowledge that for countries such as landlocked Hungary, which receives its Russian oil through pipelines, adjusting to a Russian oil embargo will be complex.

The bloc is considering the option of combining a gradual phaseout of oil purchases with more immediate measures to reduce demand or cut payments to Moscow, such as a price cap or a tariff on oil imports. Another possibility is to phase out shipped oil purchases quickly and pipeline deliveries more slowly.

“There are all sorts of things that we’re running through,” said a senior EU official. “The aim is to hit the Russians as hard as possible while at the same time minimizing” the cost.

While Germany has swung behind the idea of phasing out Russian oil purchases, Berlin remains skeptical of price caps, tariffs and proposals to put Russia’s oil payments into escrow accounts.

German officials doubt that Mr. Putin would maintain oil deliveries if the EU unilaterally cut the price it pays, and they caution that Russia could easily sell its oil to other customers such as India and China instead of accepting a lower European price.

Berlin’s change of mind on oil came after it struck a deal with Poland that will enable Germany to import oil from global exporters via the Baltic Sea port of Gdansk, officials said Wednesday.

The Polish port is located close to the PCK oil refinery in Schwedt, Germany, which is controlled by the Russian oil giant

Rosneft

and receives crude via a Russian pipeline known as Druzhba, Russian for friendship.

The Gdansk port infrastructure, which is equipped to receive oil supertankers, is connected to the Russian pipeline with a separate link operated by Poland. This means oil imports to Gdansk could be immediately channeled through the pipeline to the Schwedt refinery, replacing Russian supplies, government officials said.

Oil imports to Gdansk, Poland, could be channeled to the Schwedt refinery, replacing Russian supplies.



Photo:

Michal Fludra/Zuma Press

The Schwedt refinery was the biggest obstacle to Germany accepting a ban on Russian oil imports because thousands of jobs in the region depend on it and there was no alternative supply to feed it until now, the officials said.

The Polish deal was necessary because the German port closest to the refinery, Rostock, doesn’t have the capacity to receive supertankers. In addition, Germany’s railways no longer operate oil wagons. The landmark deal was announced on Wednesday by German Economy Minister

Robert Habeck

during a visit to Poland.

Some 12% of Germany’s oil consumption relies on Russian imports, down from 35% before the war, Mr. Habeck said in a video statement posted on his ministry’s social media. He said Germany was now ready for the possibility that Rosneft would stop channeling oil, a scenario he said would no longer spell disaster for the German economy.

“Rosneft is a Russian state company and they have no interest in processing non-Russian oil,” Mr. Habeck said.

Should Rosneft refuse to process non-Russian oil imports, Germany could put the refinery under state management under laws protecting strategic assets. Berlin has already assumed stewardship of the main Russian gas-trading hub in Germany, a subsidiary of Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom.

Write to Bojan Pancevski at bojan.pancevski@wsj.com, Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.com and Georgi Kantchev at georgi.kantchev@wsj.com

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Gas Shortage Prompts Power Plants to Switch to Oil, Boosting Demand

Soaring natural-gas and coal prices are pressuring power-generation companies and manufacturers to switch to using oil, a trend that could add half a million barrels a day to global demand, the International Energy Agency said Thursday.

In its monthly market report, the IEA increased its global oil-demand forecasts for this year and the next by 170,000 and 210,000 barrels a day, respectively, but added that the cumulative effect of the energy crisis could be as large as 500,000 barrels a day from September through next year’s first quarter.

That increase means that the IEA, which acts as the energy watchdog for the wealthy nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, expects the world’s thirst for crude next year to exceed pre-pandemic levels.

Oil prices added to early gains on Thursday following the release of the IEA’s report, with Brent crude rising 1.2% to $84.16 a barrel in early trading. U.S. crude futures climbed 1.1% to $81.35 a barrel, on course to close at fresh seven-year highs. Both benchmarks have increased more than 60% this year, accelerating in recent months due in part to tight supply elsewhere in the energy market.

“An acute shortage of natural gas, [liquefied natural gas] and coal supplies stemming from the gathering global economic recovery has sparked a precipitous run-up in prices for energy supplies and is triggering a massive switch to oil products and direct crude use for power generation,” the Paris-based organization said in its report, adding that power-generation plants, fertilizer producers, manufacturing operations and refineries are all affected.

The shortage of relatively low-carbon but expensive natural gas—analysts say the commodity is two to three times more expensive than the equivalent amount of oil—and the trend of switching to more emissions-intensive fuels such as crude products comes weeks before leaders from around the world descend on Glasgow for United Nations-led climate negotiations.

Analysts say the IEA’s forecast of an extra 500,000 barrels a day in demand from the energy crisis may be conservative.

“We have never had a situation like this where oil is extremely cheap [versus gas] so we just don’t have empirical evidence” for how much oil demand may increase, said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Markets. “It could very well be more than a million barrels,” he added.

Relatively weak natural-gas inventories for the time of year and low wind levels in Europe have coincided with the post-pandemic economic recovery, coal shortages in China and the possibility of a cold Northern Hemisphere winter to send fossil-fuel prices soaring. Benchmark European gas prices have leapt 184% in the past three months.

IEA Executive Director

Fatih Birol

said Wednesday that extreme weather events—such as Hurricane Ida in the Gulf of Mexico, droughts stymieing hydroelectric power in China and Brazil, and widespread flooding—have also contributed to the energy crunch. He added that supply choke points, including pandemic-delayed maintenance work, meant that natural-gas outages are currently 40% higher than average.

As a result, analysts have already observed a rise in the trend known as gas-to-oil switching, whereby power plants that run on oil are fired up or ones that can be converted to run on crude products are being switched over.

Goldman Sachs

cited this in raising its oil-price forecasts late last month, while energy consulting firm Rystad Energy said it expects the Asian power sector to use 400,000 more barrels a day of oil than it previously did in the next six months.

In its report, the IEA observed a similar trend, citing provisional data showing “unseasonably high demand for fuel oil, crude and middle distillates for power plants” across China, Japan, Germany, France and Brazil.

Even so, supply from oil-producing nations remains constrained. The IEA trimmed its supply forecasts for this year and next for countries outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, citing outages from Hurricane Ida and maintenance-related outages in Canada and Norway.

Meanwhile, despite increased production from OPEC+, the IEA said the alliance would produce 700,000 barrels a day fewer than the world’s appetite for its crude in the fourth quarter of 2021, but added that if the producer group continues to unwind its production curbs then it may shift back to supplying more than needed in 2022.

Long-term reports in recent weeks from OPEC and the IEA have shone a spotlight on the cartel’s influence over the global energy system. While the IEA said on Wednesday that clean-energy spending must triple to avoid further power-market turbulence, OPEC’s report said that developing-world population growth and wealthier nations’ aversion to fossil fuels leaves the cartel well-positioned to profit from selling oil for decades to come.

Write to David Hodari at David.Hodari@dowjones.com

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Oil Prices Tumble on Worries Over China Delta Variant Outbreak

The price of oil and other key industrial commodities slid Monday after Chinese government measures to halt the spread of the Delta variant spooked investors about global energy demand.

Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, fell 4% to $67.87 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate futures—the main U.S. benchmark—were down 4.3% at $65.38 a barrel. At those prices, both gauges were set for their lowest close in around 2½ months.

The spread of Delta variant Covid-19 cases has raised alarms in China and other East Asian countries. Beijing health authorities said last week that the city would cancel all large-scale exhibitions and events for the remainder of August.

China is the world’s biggest importer of oil and “while some countries seem to be flipping to learning to live with the coronavirus, it is adopting a zero-tolerance policy” with stricter travel rules and quarantine measures, said Norbert Rücker, head of economics at Swiss private bank Julius Baer .

Customs data published over the weekend show that China imported less crude per day in July than in June and those figures were also weighing on prices, according to analysts at Dutch bank ING.

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