Tag Archives: Interest Rates

Fed officials see economy ‘far from’ where it needs to be, meaning easy policy won’t change soon, minutes show

Federal Open Market Committee members at their most recent gathering reaffirmed that the central bank will be keeping policy loose well into the future, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday.

With the economy continuing to shake off the effects from the Covid-19 pandemic, the committee, which sets monetary policy for the Federal Reserve, kept policy unchanged.

That meant holding benchmark short-term borrowing rates near zero and maintaining the minimum $120 billion of asset purchases each month.

In a discussion over the Fed’s asset purchase program and interest rate policy, the minutes indicated little chance for a change anytime soon.

“Participants noted that economic conditions were currently far from the Committee’s longer-run goals and that the stance for policy would need to remain accommodative until those goals were achieved,” the meeting summary said. “Consequently, all participants supported maintaining the Committee’s current settings and outcome-based guidance for the federal funds rate and the pace of asset purchases.”

Heading into the meeting, investors had been looking for discussion about when the FOMC might start tapering the pace of its bond buying, or quantitative easing. The post-meeting statement made no mention of the talks, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said afterwards that the Fed likely would keep policy accommodative.

Members noted that the QE program, which has taken the Fed’s balance sheet to nearly $7.5 trillion, “had materially eased financial conditions and was providing substantial support to the economy.”

The deliberations come amid concerns central bank officials have over the pace of recovery. Of particular focus is the goal of a ‘broad and inclusive” labor market recovery, across racial, gender and income lines.

The post-meeting statement noted that the speed of economic activity and improvements in the labor market has “moderated in recent months.” The minutes helped amplify Fed sentiment in that regard.

“With the economy still far from those goals, participants judged that it was likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved,” the summary stated.

Since the meeting, Fed officials have been virtually unanimous in saying they don’t expect significant policy changes until more progress is made towards the central bank’s enhanced goal for the labor market. Powell and others have stressed that they won’t start raising interest rates to head off inflation, but rather will wait for actual price pressures to show up before tightening policy.

“In terms of tapering, it’s just premature. We just created the guidance. We said we wanted to see substantial further progress toward our goals before we modify our asset purchase guidance,” Powell said at his post-meeting news conference.

The minutes noted that asset prices are “elevated” and said that vulnerabilities associated with household and business borrowing levels are “notable.” Officials also said some money market and open-ended mutual funds face “significant vulnerabilities associated with liquidity transformation.”

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Watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell speak live to the Economic Club of New York

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks Wednesday to the Economic Club of New York on the “State of the U.S. Labor Market.”

The speech comes as job gains have slowed considerably after a rapid recovery following pandemic-inducted layoffs in March and April. Though nonfarm payrolls have recovered more than 12 million of the lost positions, primarily in the hospitality and health care professions, more than 10 million workers remain unemployed.

After seeing a loss of 227,000 in December, nonfarm payrolls grew by 49,000 in January and the unemployment rate fell to 6.3%.

The Fed has made inclusive employment gains a priority and has said it will not raise interest rates until it sees substantial progress towards that goal.

Read more
Job openings increased toward the end of 2020, but a big employment gap remains
Even with unprecedented gains, the jobs market is still struggling to get back to normal
Fed’s Bostic says economy could recover more quickly than expected

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