Tag Archives: Inflation

Yellen, Malerba become 1st female pair to sign US currency

FORT WORTH, Texas (AP) — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday helped mark a milestone in U.S. history when she held up a newly minted $5 bill signed for the first time ever by two women.

Yellen’s signature will appear alongside that of U.S. Treasurer Lynn Malerba, the first Native American in that position.

Yellen joked during a stop in Texas about the bad handwriting of some of her male predecessors and said, “I will admit, I spent some quality time practicing my signature.”

“Two women on the currency for the first time is truly momentous,” added Malerba, who traveled with Yellen to a Bureau of Engraving and Printing facility in Fort Worth to provide their signatures.

They ceremonially signed fresh sheets of bills in $1 and $5 denominations and posed with samples to mark the history-making moment. The new notes will go into circulation next year.

Yellen made her reputation as a stoic chair of the Federal Reserve and a shrewd forecaster, and now is at the forefront of far-flung efforts to use economic levers to help stop Russia’s war in Ukraine, employ tax policy to protect the planet from climate change and oversee a massive effort to strengthen the beleaguered IRS.

That puts her at the center of domestic and global politics, inviting new levels of pressure and second-guessing by friends and foes. She is tackling this challenge as the United States is suffering from inflation that hit a 40-year high this summer and sowed fears of a coming recession.

Even as Yellen watched the fresh bills carrying her signature roll out at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing’s Western currency facility, her remarks focused on Biden administration policy accomplishments rather than her status as the first woman to serve as treasury secretary.

On the Ukraine conflict instigated last February by Russian President Vladimir Putin, she said, ”Together with over 30 countries, we have denied Russia revenue and resources it needs to fight its war.”

As for the domestic economy, she said, pandemic relief and a new law to boost production of semiconductors have positioned the U.S. “to capitalize on a wave of economic opportunities for the American people, including in communities often overlooked.”

Later, talking to reporters, Yellen said she thinks the U.S. can avoid a recession.

“Obviously, there are risks that the economy faces, but I think we’re not in a wage price spiral. Supply chain bottlenecks. are clearly beginning to ease. That’s helpful,” she said. “I believe we’re on the right track in terms of lowering inflation, and a recession is not inevitable.”

Now, two years into Joe Biden’s presidency, Yellen has put to rest rumors she might be ready to leave the administration early and is strapping in for more economic — as well as political — battles ahead.

Along with managing Treasury’s role in the Ukraine war, she faces the Herculean task of revitalizing an IRS that is getting a $80 billion funding boost, and enforcing an anti-money laundering effort that requires documenting the beneficial owners of tens of millions of U.S. businesses in hopes of crushing corruption around the world.

She occupies an increasingly politicized role in which Congress and foreign governments matter as much as the financial markets.

Her Treasury Department is seeking to hobble the Russian economy with an oil price cap, as House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy of California is questioning the level of U.S. support for Ukraine. The Treasury is also putting together tens of billions in tax incentives, to address climate change, that have rankled some European allies and proved controversial with Republicans. And the wage gains in the most recent U.S. jobs report suggest the economy might have to endure more pain than expected to bring inflation back to the Fed’s target of 2% annually.

Along the way, Yellen has not shied away from controversy or speaking her mind on issues that many Americans look at solely through a cultural lens.

When Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., at a May congressional hearing told Yellen she was “harsh” for speaking about the positive economic impacts of abortion access for women, she replied, “This is not harsh, this is the truth.” She also has challenged the view that havens for hidden cash lie outside the U.S., instead arguing that the U.S. has become the “best place” to hide illicitly obtained money.

Yellen generated some tension with the White House this year when she veered somewhat from Biden’s insistence that his $1.9 trillion in coronavirus aid package did not contribute to inflation. Republican lawmakers have drawn on analyses by major economists such as Harvard University’s Larry Summers to say that the sum was excessive and sparked inflation. Breakages in the global supply chain and a jump in food and energy costs after Russia invaded Ukraine also have contributed to boosting prices to uncomfortable levels, putting the economy at heightened risk of a recession.

Yellen acknowledged on CNN in May that she had been “wrong then about the path that inflation would take.” Biden said he had been apprised of the possible risks of inflation when putting together the relief package, but he told The Associated Press in an interview that “the idea that it caused inflation is bizarre.”

Yellen’s predictions at the Treasury about financial markets on other points have been proved accurate.

Her warnings about the risks of a deregulated cryptocurrency market foresaw the recent chaos. Crypto markets have seen at least two major crashes, dozens of scams, Ponzi schemes and hundreds of billions of dollars made and evaporated overnight.

Yellen has also used her platform as a top government official to warn that despite women’s advancements in the workplace, a glass ceiling prevents many from advancing to the very top positions.

Yellen, the only person ever to lead the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve and White House Council of Economic Advisers, still gets flak from members of both political parties for not being more dynamic and politically savvy at times and for being too direct at other times.

Summers, treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton, said in a statement to The Associated Press that Yellen “continues a remarkable career in economic policy at the US Treasury Department. No other Treasury Secretary has had a deeper commitment to social justice as a central goal of macro and financial policies.”

The praise comes as Summers has leveled criticism at the Biden administration for the size of its coronavirus relief, saying its excesses flooded the economy with money and pushed up prices. He has argued that the Fed must continue to raise rates to reduce inflation, an action that could push the U.S. and other nations into recession.

Anusha Chari, an economist who chairs the American Economic Association’s Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession, calls Yellen’s signature on U.S. currency “a huge milestone, but it also shows us how far we have to go.”

The Treasury Department was created in 1789, and until Yellen only white men had led it.

___

Boak reported from Washington. Associated Press writer Darlene Superville in Washington contributed to this report.

Read original article here

Stock futures are flat as traders look ahead to November wholesale inflation report

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), December 7, 2022.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

Stock futures were flat Thursday evening as investors look ahead to new inflation data due Friday.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 21 points, or 0.06%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.05% and 0.06%, respectively. Shares of Lululemon fell more than 7% after the company gave a weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter outlook, even though it beat Wall Street expectations with its third-quarter results.

Earlier in the day, the S&P 500 rallied to break a five-day run of losses — its longest streak since October. The broad-market index gained 0.75%, and the Dow gained 183.56 points, or 0.55%. The Nasdaq had the strongest performance of the day, rallying 1.13%.

Even with Thursday’s gains, all three major averages are on track to post losses for the week. The S&P 500 is off by 2.6% for the week, while the Nasdaq is down more than 3%. The Dow shed 1.8%.

Next, investors are awaiting the Friday release of the November producer price index report, which will give further information about how the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are working to tame high inflation.

“[The stock market] really has been so dependent on inflation this year and it’s likely to continue to depend on inflation,” said Courtney Garcia, senior wealth advisor at Payne Capital Management, on CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday.

Next week, more inflation data and a Federal Reserve meeting are top of mind for traders. The November consumer price index report due Dec. 13 will further show if inflation is subsiding.

The central bank is widely expected to deliver a smaller interest rate hike of 0.5 percentage point on Dec. 14, the last day of its December meeting.

Read original article here

Larry Summers predicts Fed will need to raise interest rates more than market anticipates

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said the Federal Reserve will likely need to raise interest rates more than the market anticipates as prices remain high but grew at slower rates in October. 

Summers told Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week” with David Westin that the economy has a “long way to go” before inflation is under control. 

“My sense is that inflation is going to be a little more sustained than what people are looking for,” he said. 

The Fed has raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage points four times in a row in successive meetings, but Chairman Jerome Powell said it will likely raise it by a smaller amount at its meeting later this month. 

Still, he said the Fed needs “substantially more evidence to get comfort” that inflation is declining. Consumer prices rose at a slightly slower pace in October than expected despite Americans increasing their spending. 

Powell has said the Fed will continue to raise interest rates as much as necessary to get inflation under control. Officials are aiming for inflation to get back to a 2 percent annual rate. 

The stock market surged after Powell’s comments that the interest rate hikes will slow down. 

Some financial experts have expressed concerns about the Fed raising rates too much too quickly and causing an economic downturn. Reports have indicated the rising interest rate has not had a major effect on the overall economy, but Summers said the effects of the increases can happen suddenly. 

“At a certain point, consumers run out of their savings and then you have a Wile E. Coyote kind of moment,” he said, referring to the cartoon character who falls off cliffs while chasing Road Runner. 

Summers said a “real risk” for an “avalanche aspect” exists but added that the Fed should not change its target of 2 percent for inflation.

Read original article here

Markets need a strong job market, tame inflation

CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Friday told investors that stocks could see another strong week of trading, given the right economic conditions.

“As the year winds down, the holidays will become more and more of a focus. Right now, the forecast is cloudy – too many cross currents. But if the job market stays strong and inflation stays tame, we could be in for still one more very good week,” he said.

Stocks closed up for the week on Friday, marking the first time since October the three major indexes saw consecutive weekly gains. 

Markets were volatile this week as investors digested Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s indication that the central bank could start slowing down its pace of interest rate hikes soon and the hot wage and labor data.

Cramer said that he has his eye on the producer price index and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reports set to release next week, and is worried that sentiment might be too cold.

“Right about now, we need a boost, a big boost, if only to save Christmas for retail,” he said.

He also previewed next week’s slate of earnings. All earnings and revenue estimates are courtesy of FactSet.

Tuesday: AutoZone, Toll Brothers, SentinelOne 

AutoZone

  • Q1 2023 earnings release at 6:55 a.m. ET; conference call at 10 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $25.3
  • Projected revenue; $3.86 billion

He said the stock’s been a favorite of his for years.

Toll Brothers

  • Q4 2022 earnings release at 4:30 p.m. ET; conference call on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $4.01
  • Projected revenue: $3.17 billion

While it’s generally advised not to buy housing stocks going into a tightening cycle that could set off a recession, Powell’s recent remarks could make the stock an interesting investment, Cramer said.

SentinelOne

  • Q3 2023 earnings release after the close; conference call at 5 p.m. ET
  • Projected loss: loss of 11 cents per share
  • Projected revenue: $180 million

He said he’s unsure when the stock will bottom.

Wednesday: Campbell Soup, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Brown-Forman, Lowe’s

Campbell Soup

  • Q1 2023 earnings release at 7:30 a.m. ET; conference call at 8 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: 88 cents
  • Projected revenue: $2.45 billion

He said that the company has been “reinvented” by CEO Mark Clouse.

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings

  • Q3 2022 earnings release before the bell; conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: 40 cents
  • Projected revenue: $429 million

The company is a “terrific” bargain store, meaning its quarter should have standout results, Cramer said.

Brown-Forman

  • Q2 2023 earnings release at 8 a.m. ET; conference call at 10 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: 55 cents
  • Projected revenue: $1.08 billion

Cramer pointed out that liquor sales tend to do well in a recession, which is good news for the Jack Daniel’s distiller.

Thursday: Broadcom: Costco, Lululemon Athletica

Broadcom

  • Q4 2022 earnings release at 4:15 p.m. ET; conference call at 5 p.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $10.3
  • Projected revenue: $8.90 billion

The semiconductor company will report great earnings even though cloud growth is slowing, Cramer predicted.

Costco

  • Q1 2023 earnings release at 4:15 p.m. ET; conference call at 5 p.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $3.12
  • Projected revenue; $58.36 billion

While the retailer’s quarter will likely be solid, the better bargain stock is TJX, he said.

Lululemon Athletica

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 4:05 p.m. ET; conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $1.96
  • Projected revenue: $1.81 billion

Cramer said he’s betting Lululemon will beat Wall Street expectations in its latest quarter.

Disclaimer: Cramer’s Charitable Trust owns shares of Costco and TJX.

Jim Cramer’s Guide to Investing

Click here to download Jim Cramer’s Guide to Investing at no cost to help you build long-term wealth and invest smarter.

Read original article here

Markets need a strong job market, tame inflation

CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Friday told investors that stocks could see another strong week of trading, given the right economic conditions.

“As the year winds down, the holidays will become more and more of a focus. Right now, the forecast is cloudy – too many cross currents. But if the job market stays strong and inflation stays tame, we could be in for still one more very good week,” he said.

related investing news

Jim Cramer’s Investing Club meeting Friday: Hot jobs report, Marvell earnings read through

Stocks closed up for the week on Friday, marking the first time since October the three major indexes saw consecutive weekly gains. 

Markets were volatile this week as investors digested Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s indication that the central bank could start slowing down its pace of interest rate hikes soon and the hot wage and labor data.

Cramer said that he has his eye on the producer price index and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reports set to release next week, and is worried that sentiment might be too cold.

“Right about now, we need a boost, a big boost, if only to save Christmas for retail,” he said.

He also previewed next week’s slate of earnings. All earnings and revenue estimates are courtesy of FactSet.

Tuesday: AutoZone, Toll Brothers, SentinelOne 

AutoZone

  • Q1 2023 earnings release at 6:55 a.m. ET; conference call at 10 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $25.3
  • Projected revenue; $3.86 billion

He said the stock’s been a favorite of his for years.

Toll Brothers

  • Q4 2022 earnings release at 4:30 p.m. ET; conference call on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $4.01
  • Projected revenue: $3.17 billion

While it’s generally advised not to buy housing stocks going into a tightening cycle that could set off a recession, Powell’s recent remarks could make the stock an interesting investment, Cramer said.

SentinelOne

  • Q3 2023 earnings release after the close; conference call at 5 p.m. ET
  • Projected loss: loss of 11 cents per share
  • Projected revenue: $180 million

He said he’s unsure when the stock will bottom.

Wednesday: Campbell Soup, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Brown-Forman, Lowe’s

Campbell Soup

  • Q1 2023 earnings release at 7:30 a.m. ET; conference call at 8 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: 88 cents
  • Projected revenue: $2.45 billion

He said that the company has been “reinvented” by CEO Mark Clouse.

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings

  • Q3 2022 earnings release before the bell; conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: 40 cents
  • Projected revenue: $429 million

The company is a “terrific” bargain store, meaning its quarter should have standout results, Cramer said.

Brown-Forman

  • Q2 2023 earnings release at 8 a.m. ET; conference call at 10 a.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: 55 cents
  • Projected revenue: $1.08 billion

Cramer pointed out that liquor sales tend to do well in a recession, which is good news for the Jack Daniel’s distiller.

Thursday: Broadcom: Costco, Lululemon Athletica

Broadcom

  • Q4 2022 earnings release at 4:15 p.m. ET; conference call at 5 p.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $10.3
  • Projected revenue: $8.90 billion

The semiconductor company will report great earnings even though cloud growth is slowing, Cramer predicted.

Costco

  • Q1 2023 earnings release at 4:15 p.m. ET; conference call at 5 p.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $3.12
  • Projected revenue; $58.36 billion

While the retailer’s quarter will likely be solid, the better bargain stock is TJX, he said.

Lululemon Athletica

  • Q3 2022 earnings release at 4:05 p.m. ET; conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET
  • Projected EPS: $1.96
  • Projected revenue: $1.81 billion

Cramer said he’s betting Lululemon will beat Wall Street expectations in its latest quarter.

Disclaimer: Cramer’s Charitable Trust owns shares of Costco and TJX.

Jim Cramer’s Guide to Investing

Click here to download Jim Cramer’s Guide to Investing at no cost to help you build long-term wealth and invest smarter.

Read original article here

Jobs Report Keeps Federal Reserve on Track for 0.5-Point Rate Rise

Fed officials have warned in recent days that they are likely to lift rates to and hold them at levels high enough to slow economic activity and hiring to bring inflation down from 40-year highs.

The employment report showed continued strong hiring and brisk wage growth, which is a source of concern to Fed officials because they are trying to slow both trends to prevent higher prices and wages from growing embedded across the economy.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

How would you rate the Fed’s response to inflationary pressure? Join the conversation below.

Employers added 263,000 jobs in November and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%. But revised wage data released Friday could concern Fed officials because it points to an acceleration in pay gains in recent months.

For the three months through November, average hourly earnings rose at a 5.8% annualized rate, the Labor Department said Friday. That is up from an initially reported 3.9% annualized rate for the three months ended October.

At the same time, senior Fed officials have clearly signaled their expectation that they can cool the pace of rate rises at their Dec. 13-14 meeting, ending an unprecedented string of 0.75-point rate rises at their past four meetings.

The Fed raised its benchmark federal-funds rate last month to a range between 3.75% and 4%, and officials have signaled they are on track to continue raising it to at least around 5% by next spring.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said at a Brookings Institution event that the central bank is prepared to slow the pace of rate rises as soon as its December meeting. Photo: Valerie Plesch/Bloomberg News

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal-consumption-expenditures price index, rose 6% in October from a year ago. Excluding volatile food and energy categories, the so-called core PCE index rose 5%. Economists often look at core inflation as a better gauge of underlying price pressures. The Fed targets 2% inflation over time.

Current pay gains are around 1.5 to 2 percentage points above what would be consistent with the Fed’s 2% target, Fed Chair

Jerome Powell

said during a moderated discussion on Wednesday. 

“We want wages to go up. We want wages to go up strongly,” he said. “But they’ve got to go up at a level that is consistent with 2% inflation over time.”

Mr. Powell said it was possible prices that rose sharply over the last two years, including housing costs and goods such as used cars, could decline in the coming year. But he signaled concern that inflation might ease to levels that are still too high. “Despite some promising developments, we have a long way to go” in bringing down inflation.

Mr. Powell and several of his colleagues have said they don’t believe wage growth played the primary role in driving up prices. But they are concerned that strong demand for labor and high inflation could create conditions that lead paychecks and prices to move higher in lockstep, which economists sometimes call a wage-price spiral.

“When you get to that point, you’re in serious trouble,” Mr. Powell said Wednesday. “We don’t think we’re at that point. But it can’t be that we can go on for five years at very high levels of inflation and that doesn’t work its way into the wage- and price-setting process pretty quickly.”

Fed officials have signaled they are entering a new phase of raising interest rates after having lifted them at the fastest pace since the early 1980s. Now, they are trying to determine more carefully how high rates will need to go and for how long to lower inflation.

Mr. Powell outlined two possible strategies. One would be to quickly raise interest rates well above the 4.5% to 5% level that many officials thought in September would be appropriate. Another would be to “go slower and feel your way a little bit to what we think is the right level” and “to hold on longer at a high level and not loosen policy too early.”

Mr. Powell indicated he and his colleagues were more comfortable with the second strategy because they don’t want to cause unnecessary damage to the economy. “We do not want to over tighten because cutting rates is not something we want to do soon,” he said. “So that’s why we’re slowing down and going to find our way to what the right level is.”

Write to Nick Timiraos at Nick.Timiraos@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Read original article here

November Employment Report Shows U.S. Economy Added 263,000 Jobs

The November payrolls gain compared with an upwardly revised 284,000 jobs in October, the Labor Department said Friday. Payrolls grew in leisure and hospitality, healthcare and government. Retailers and transportation-and-warehousing companies cut jobs in a sign of weak holiday hiring.

Average hourly earnings grew 5.1% in November from a year earlier, the department said. Wage growth has remained elevated but roughly stable after a sharp increase earlier in the year.

November job growth was roughly in line with the previous three months, when payrolls grew an average of 282,000 a month. Job growth continues to exceed the 2019 monthly average of 164,000, though gains have slowed from the first half of the year.

The job market has remained resilient this year, with employers still seeking to hire despite an uncertain economic outlook and elevated recession fears. Low unemployment and wage gains have helped fuel consumer spending, the economy’s main engine.

One big question is how long that strength can last as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises interest rates to tame inflation. Some companies in technology, entertainment and real estate are laying off workers, but demand for workers continues to outpace the number of unemployed people looking for work.

Economists are concerned that higher interest rates will trigger more widespread layoffs and a recession in the next year, as has typically occurred during prior episodes of rapid rate rises. They are closely monitoring the pace of hiring for early signs of shifts in labor-market momentum.

“An employer is going to start reducing hiring long before they start letting go of their existing workforce,” said Guy Berger, principal economist at LinkedIn. “That’s the first lever.” 

Rising unemployment could follow, he said, as job seekers have fewer available opportunities. Continuing claims, which reflect the number of people seeking ongoing unemployment benefits, are drifting upward in a sign of labor-market cooling, Mr. Berger said. 

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair

Jerome Powell

indicated the central bank is on track to raise interest rates by a half-percentage point at its next meeting, scaling back from an unprecedented series of four 0.75-point rate rises. Fed officials are hoping higher rates will trigger less competition for workers and slower wage increases, taking some pressure off consumer prices. 

This week, CNN said it was laying off employees and DoorDash Inc. said it would trim its corporate staffing levels by about 1,250. AMC Networks Inc. said in a memo to employees that it plans to lay off about 20% of its U.S. workforce. 

Corporate layoff announcements generally have been concentrated in the technology industry and sectors of the economy sensitive to interest rates such as housing and finance. Other businesses are quickly scooping up laid-off workers as job openings remain well above prepandemic levels, even in sectors such as real estate.

LodeStar Software Solutions, a small software company that helps mortgage lenders accurately disclose fees to consumers, recently posted an opening for a customer-service role, said Jim Paolino, chief executive of the Conshohocken, Pa.-based company.

Mr. Paolino quickly received about 130 résumés for the job, which entails account management. He held screening calls with 10 applicants, eight of whom had lost their jobs at mortgage companies. 

“It’s actually a great time to hire right now,” he said. “There has been an influx of talent in our industry and to the market because a lot of larger companies have done pretty large-scale layoffs.”

Companies are still largely avoiding job cuts because demand for goods and services is solid. Personal spending increased 0.8% from the prior month, the Commerce Department said Thursday. 

Some firms also are hesitant to lay off employees because they found it so difficult to rehire as the economy recovered from the pandemic downturn.

The layoff announcements just keep coming. As interest rates continue to climb and earnings slump, WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains why we can expect to see a bigger wave of layoffs in the near future. Illustration: Elizabeth Smelov

“Demand restarted, and they couldn’t hire fast enough,” said

Becky Frankiewicz,

president and chief commercial officer of staffing firm

ManpowerGroup.

“There’s still this aftershock of, ‘I want to hold on to the talent that I have.’”

Companies are still offering hiring bonuses to attract talent, but the rationale has shifted some from a year ago. Employers are expecting inflation to come down and bonuses give them more flexibility to dial back compensation than wage increases do, she said. 

“If you still have a talent shortage and you don’t want to lock in at higher wages across all your roles, what do you do? You do bonuses,” Ms. Frankiewicz said.

Wage growth has cooled in recent months but remains above the prepandemic pace.

Still, there are signs that spending could be reaching a limit, with some Americans dipping into savings or taking on credit-card debt to finance purchases. The personal-saving rate was 2.3% in October, its lowest level since 2.1% in July 2005.

David Blake, president of Iowa-based Blue-9 Pet Products, said sales have been roughly flat this year, a shift from previous years when the 10-person manufacturer and seller of dog-training accessories posted double-digit sales growth. 

Pet owners appear to be cutting back on some discretionary purchases as they face higher prices for staples like groceries, he said.

“Whether we’re in a recession or going to have a recession or not, the fact still remains that the inflation out there is having an impact on spending,” said Mr. Blake.

Write to Sarah Chaney Cambon at sarah.chaney@wsj.com

Due to slower sales, Mr. Blake held off on hiring new employees this year. He also doesn’t plan to add any next year.

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Read original article here

South Korea inflation, U.S. jobs report, China Covid-zero

Singapore, New York ranked the most expensive cities to live in: EIU

Singapore and New York have been ranked as the most expensive cities to live in this year, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

EIU’s survey showed the average price of goods in 172 major cities globally rose 8.1% in local currency terms this year, citing a poll that the organization conducted between Aug. 16th and Sept. 16th.

The reading marks a significant increase from a 3.5% rise in prices seen in the same survey that the organization conducted last year.

— Charmaine Jacob

India poised to become third largest economy by 2030

India is projected to overtake Japan and Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy, S&P Global and Morgan Stanley forecasted in a report.

S&P’s prediction is premised upon the projection that India’s annual nominal GDP growth will average 6.3% through 2030. Similarly, Morgan Stanley estimates that India’s GDP is likely to more than double from current levels by 2031.

On Wednesday, India recorded a year-on-year GDP growth of 6.3% for the July to September quarter, fractionally beating Reuters poll estimates of 6.2%.

— Lee Ying Shan

CNBC Pro: Citi names 6 global stocks that capture both ‘defensive growth and value’

Citi says investors don’t need to give up entirely on growth by pivoting to a defensive portfolio of stocks ahead of a potential recession.

The investment bank named six global stocks which offer “low risk, quality and growth” combined.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Ganesh Rao

South Korea’s November inflation misses expectations

South Korea’s annualized inflation for November came in at 5%, lower than estimates of 5.1% surveyed in a Reuters poll.

The latest reading marks slight easing from 5.7% in October and off an all-time peak of 6.3% seen in July.

– Jihye Lee

CNBC Pro: BlackRock unit says it’s time for a new portfolio playbook, and reveals how to position

BlackRock’s ETF division says the investing environment has fundamentally changed, which has “profound implications” for portfolios looking ahead.

In its 2023 investor guide, Blackrock’s iShares, one of the largest providers of exchange-traded-funds in the world, said the shift brings with it “profound implications for portfolio construction.”

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Weizhen Tan

‘No one wants to be aggressively bullish’ before new labor data coming Friday, analyst says

Stocks were unable to continue Wednesday’s rally because investors were awaiting a key jobs report coming Friday, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.

He said investors were purposefully pulling back ahead of non-farm payroll data coming in the morning. Investors will also be watching for data on hourly pay and the unemployment rate.

“US stocks were unable to hold onto earlier gains as Wall Street digested a swathe of economic data that showed inflation is easing and the labor market is cooling,” Moya said. “It’s been a nice rally but no one wants to be aggressively bullish heading into the NFP report.”

Investors will be looking for the right, middle-ground data, said Megan Horneman, chief investing officer at Verdence Capital Advisors. That means it’s weak enough to show interest rate hikes are having the intended impact of economic contracting, while being strong enough to signal a recession could be avoided.

“A big number will spook the markets further that the Fed’s not going to be able to slow down their pace of rate hikes,” said Megan Horneman, chief investing officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, of Friday’s jobs data.

With “a so-so number, I think the markets can maybe rally on that,” she added. “But if you get a really weak number, it’s just going to spook investors after such a strong rally we’ve seen in November.”

— Alex Harring

Indexes are coming off winning month

Thursday marked the first day of a new trading month as the market came off a winning November.

The S&P 500 and Dow each had the second straight month of gains, rising 5.38% and 5.67%, respectively. That monthly streak was the first for each since August 2021.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 4.37%, which was its second positive month in a row. That was the first time the tech-heavy index started a streak since it saw three straight months of wins ending with December 2021.

— Alex Harring

Key inflation indicator rose less than expected in October

The Bureau of Economic Analysts reported that the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, a key gauge of inflation, rose 0.2% in October. That’s less than the Dow Jones expected increase of 0.3%.

Following the report, Treasury yields declined amid optimism over inflation easing.

— Fred Imbert

Read original article here

Powell’s inflation remarks a ‘green light’ to stay in stocks

CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s inflation remarks the day before confirmed that inventors shouldn’t exit the market over recession fears.

“Unless the super hawkish Fed heads who want to raise short rates to 5% to 7% are silenced, we must be ready with a quarter of one foot out the door,” he said, later adding, “Yesterday, Powell … muzzled the hard-liners. To me, that’s a green light to stay in stocks.”

related investing news

Wednesday’s Powell rally triggered a record ‘buying panic’ by one market measure

Powell said on Wednesday that the central bank could start slowing down its pace of interest rate hikes as soon as December, sparking a rally that fizzled out on Thursday ahead of a key labor report.

Nevertheless, reading the “Fed tea leaves” will continue to be critical for determining which areas of the economy will be crushed by the central bank’s tightening and which will remain intact, according to Cramer.

He called on Powell to crush speculative stocks that became inflated during the height of the pandemic and to discourage investing in crypto. 

“It is touch and go until we get some indication as to whether he’ll be willing to declare victory after he crushes speculation, hoarding, profiteering and inefficiency without ruining the rest of the economy,” Cramer said.

Read original article here

Biden says climate law has ‘glitches’ after Macron criticism

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden on Thursday acknowledged “glitches” in America’s clean energy law that have raised concerns in Europe, but said “there’s tweaks we can make” to satisfy allies.

Biden, who is honoring French President Emmanuel Macron with the first state dinner of his presidency on Thursday evening, said at a joint news conference that he and the French president spoke a “a good deal” about European concerns over his signature climate change law during an Oval Office meeting.

“The United States makes no apology. And I make no apologies since I wrote it for the legislation we’re talking about,” said Biden, though he conceded that changes may need to be made to the massive legislative package that he signed into law in August

Macron has made clear that he and other European leaders are concerned about incentives in the new law, known as the Inflation Reduction Act, that favor American-made climate technology, including electric vehicles.

Macron said that while the Biden administration’s efforts to curb climate change should be applauded, the subsidies would be an enormous setback for European companies.

“We want to succeed together, not one against the other,” Macron added

He said the U.S. and France would “resynchronize” their clean energy efforts to ensure there’s no “domino effect” that undermines clean energy projects in Europe.

The comments came after Biden and Macron sat down Thursday for the centerpiece talks of a pomp-filled French state visit.

The two leaders also spent much of their time discussing the war in Ukraine and concerns about China’s increasing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.

On the nine-month-old war in Ukraine, Biden and Macron face headwinds as they try to maintain unity in the U.S. and Europe to keep economic and military aid flowing to Kyiv as it tries to repel Russian forces.

“The choices we make today and the years ahead will determine the course of our world for decades to come,” Biden said at an arrival ceremony.

The leaders, with aides, met for talks shortly after hundreds of people gathered on the South Lawn on a sunny, chilly morning for the ceremony that included a 21-gun salute and review of troops. Ushers distributed small French and American flags to the guests who gathered to watch Biden and Macron start the state visit.

Both leaders at the ceremony paid tribute to their countries’ long alliance. But they acknowledged difficult moments lay ahead as Western unity shows some wear nine months into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In Washington, Republicans are set to take control of the House, where GOP leader Kevin McCarthy has said his party’s lawmakers will not write a “blank check” for Ukraine. Across the Atlantic, Macron’s efforts to keep Europe united will be tested by the mounting costs of supporting Ukraine in the war and as Europe battles rising energy prices that threaten to derail the post-pandemic economic recovery.

Macron at the arrival ceremony stressed a need for the U.S. and France to keep the West united as the war continues.

“Our two nations are sisters in the fight for freedom,” Macron declared. He later added, “What is at stake in Ukraine is not just very far from here, in a small country somewhere in Europe. But it’s about our values. And about our principles.”

For all the talk of maintaining unity, differences on trade were shadowing the visit.

He criticized the legislation, known as the Inflation Reduction Act, during a luncheon Wednesday with U.S. lawmakers and again during a speech at the French Embassy. Macron said that while the Biden administration’s efforts to curb climate change should be applauded, the subsidies would be an enormous setback for European companies.

“The choices that have been made … are choices that will fragment the West,” Macron said. He said the legislation “creates such differences between the United States of America and Europe that all those who work in many companies (in the U.S.), they will just think, ‘We don’t make investments any more on the other side of the Atlantic.’”

He also said major industrial nations need to do more to address climate change and promote biodiversity.

In an interview that aired Thursday on ABC’s “Good Morning America,” Macron said the U.S. and France were working together well on the war in Ukraine and geopolitics overall, but not on “some economic issues.” The U.S. climate bill and semiconductor legislation, he said, were not properly coordinated with Europe and created “the absence of a level playing field.”

The blunt comments follow another low point last year after Biden announced a deal to sell nuclear submarines to Australia, undermining a contract for France to sell diesel-powered submarines. The relationship has recovered since then with Biden acknowledging a clumsy rollout of the submarine deal and Macron emerging as one of Biden’s strongest European allies in the Western response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

As for the Inflation Reduction Act, the European Union has also expressed concern that tax credits, including those aimed at encouraging Americans to buy electric vehicles, would discriminate against European producers and break World Trade Organization rules.

Biden administration officials have countered that the legislation goes a long way in helping the U.S. to meet global goals to curb climate change.

Macron also raised eyebrows earlier this month in a speech at a summit in Bangkok when he referred to the U.S. and China as “two big elephants” that are the cusp of creating “a big problem for the rest of jungle.” His visit to Washington also comes as both the U.S. and France are keeping an eye on China after protests broke out last weekend in several mainland cities and Hong Kong over Beijing’s “zero COVID” strategy.

The honor of this state visit is a boost to Macron diplomatically that he can leverage back in Europe. His outspoken comments help him demonstrate that he’s defending French workers, even as he maintains a close relationship with Biden. The moment also helps Macron burnish his image as the EU’s most visible and vocal leader, at a time when Europe is increasingly concerned that its economy will be indelibly weakened by the Ukraine war and resulting energy and inflation crises.

To that end, Biden praised Macron as “not just the leader of France” and for being “very outspoken and very very commanding in Europe.”

Macron and his wife, Brigitte, came to the U.S. bearing gifts carefully tailored to their American hosts, including a vinyl and CD of the original soundtrack from the 1966 film “Un Homme et une Femme,” which the Bidens went to see on their first date, according to the palace.

Among the gifts Biden and first lady Jill Biden presented the Macrons was a mirror framed by fallen wood from the White House grounds and made by an American furniture maker.

Harris will host Macron for a lunch at the State Department before the evening state dinner for some 350 guests, a glitzy gala to take place in an enormous tented pavilion constructed on the White House South Lawn.

___

Corbet reported from Paris. Associated Press writers Frank Jordans in Berlin and Chris Megerian, Matthew Daly and Zeke Miller contributed to this report.

Read original article here