Tag Archives: Immunity

Herd Immunity Won’t Save Us—But We Can Still Beat Covid-19

The idea of “herd immunity” against Covid-19 has achieved almost magical status in the popular imagination. Once we reach that threshold, many Americans believe, we’ll be in the clear, and the pandemic will finally fade into history.

But we are unlikely ever to reach herd immunity with Covid-19—it’s not how this nightmare will end. Although case counts are now declining from their winter peak, we fear another spike from potential super-spreader events following spring break, Easter weekend, Memorial Day and the Fourth of July, or even again after the end-of-year holidays. The time to double down on our efforts to stamp out transmission is now. We must develop what amounts to a national immune system to quickly detect and repel the new outbreaks ahead, not just for this pandemic but for future ones as well.

Herd immunity is achieved when the percentage of a given population that is immune, from vaccination or previous infection, becomes such that each infected person transmits the disease to an average of less than one new case. The virus, finding inadequate numbers of susceptible people to infect, then starts to die out.

The threshold for herd immunity depends on the contagiousness of a given disease. For Covid-19, the best estimates suggest that at least 80% of people would need to be immune.

As of this writing, 130 million doses of vaccine have been given in the U.S., leaving 46.4 million Americans fully immunized and 33 million partially immunized as they await a second dose. In addition, there have been about 30 million reported cases of Covid. Epidemiologists at the CDC and NIH estimate that perhaps an equal number of cases, some 30 million, have gone unreported.

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Herd immunity from COVID-19 may be closer than expected

A new study shows the number of COVID-19 infections in our country may actually be twice as high as the numbers we see from confirmed test results.At this point, that may be good news. It could be proof we may be getting closer than expected to herd immunity. Researchers at the medical testing and treatment company Clinical Reference Laboratory looked at the blood samples taken from 61,910 people who had applied for life insurance. They tested for antibodies that indicate whether or not someone had recovered from the virus. They found twice the rate that would be expected if you just looked at the number of confirmed tests, and this held true for the numbers across the nation. There are a lot of factors that would explain their results. At the beginning of the pandemic, tests were scarce and it was hard for people to get tested. As many as 40% of people with COVID-19 have no symptoms, according to the CDC. Some never even knew they had the virus. In a third category, many people with mild cases don’t get tested if they don’t need to go to the hospital. UC Davis Health infectious disease expert Dr. Dean Blumberg was not surprised to see the results of the study and says there’s now a lot of research backing up the same numbers. When you combine the number of people with this natural immunity, with the rising number of people getting vaccinated, it means the pandemic could end sooner than expected. Dr. Blumberg explained, “We hope what that means is we can reach herd immunity sooner with lower rates of immunizations.” Herd immunity is reached when enough people become immune to a disease that it’s much less likely to spread. Blumberg said experts aren’t sure when that will happen with COVID-19 because it’s a new disease, but they think between 60% and 80% of the population will need to become immune. “So the more that are immune already as a baseline, that means that we can achieve that sooner with our vaccination campaigns,” Blumberg said. If you’ve already contracted the virus, you may be wondering whether you need to get vaccinated, or whether your natural antibodies are enough. According to Blumberg, those who have recovered do benefit from vaccinations, because it’s hard to know how long the natural antibodies will last. The vaccine can actually provide a stronger immune response, but it varies case by case. After being worried for a year about the number of people getting the virus, this study and others like it show there’s a positive side: those who have recovered are now much less likely to spread it.

A new study shows the number of COVID-19 infections in our country may actually be twice as high as the numbers we see from confirmed test results.

At this point, that may be good news. It could be proof we may be getting closer than expected to herd immunity.

Researchers at the medical testing and treatment company Clinical Reference Laboratory looked at the blood samples taken from 61,910 people who had applied for life insurance. They tested for antibodies that indicate whether or not someone had recovered from the virus. They found twice the rate that would be expected if you just looked at the number of confirmed tests, and this held true for the numbers across the nation.

There are a lot of factors that would explain their results. At the beginning of the pandemic, tests were scarce and it was hard for people to get tested. As many as 40% of people with COVID-19 have no symptoms, according to the CDC. Some never even knew they had the virus. In a third category, many people with mild cases don’t get tested if they don’t need to go to the hospital.

UC Davis Health infectious disease expert Dr. Dean Blumberg was not surprised to see the results of the study and says there’s now a lot of research backing up the same numbers.

When you combine the number of people with this natural immunity, with the rising number of people getting vaccinated, it means the pandemic could end sooner than expected. Dr. Blumberg explained, “We hope what that means is we can reach herd immunity sooner with lower rates of immunizations.”

Herd immunity is reached when enough people become immune to a disease that it’s much less likely to spread. Blumberg said experts aren’t sure when that will happen with COVID-19 because it’s a new disease, but they think between 60% and 80% of the population will need to become immune.

“So the more that are immune already as a baseline, that means that we can achieve that sooner with our vaccination campaigns,” Blumberg said.

If you’ve already contracted the virus, you may be wondering whether you need to get vaccinated, or whether your natural antibodies are enough. According to Blumberg, those who have recovered do benefit from vaccinations, because it’s hard to know how long the natural antibodies will last. The vaccine can actually provide a stronger immune response, but it varies case by case.

After being worried for a year about the number of people getting the virus, this study and others like it show there’s a positive side: those who have recovered are now much less likely to spread it.

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Coronavirus live news: Europe herd immunity ‘possible by July’; New Zealand delays Australia travel bubble | World news

The ban on supermarkets in Wales selling non-essential items is being lifted from Monday as the country slowly moves out of lockdown, PA Media reports.

All non-essential retail was ordered to close on Christmas Eve last year as Wales entered alert level 4, but shops selling essential items such as food could remain open.

It meant supermarkets continued to trade but they were banned from selling anything not deemed essential, such as books, DVDs and toys.

Aisles were taped off to stop customers buying non-essential goods, but this ban is now being lifted.

Garden centres are also now allowed to open for the first time this year.

It is part of a more cautious approach being adopted by the Welsh Government in leaving lockdown due to the emergence of the highly-infectious Kent variant of the virus.

It has warned that if there are strong signs of a growth in infections, relaxations may need to be slowed, paused or reversed.

On March 27 the “stay local” travel requirement will be lifted, which will move Wales from alert level 4 to 3.

Ahead of the Easter holidays, from March 27 self-contained accommodation will be allowed to resume business, libraries will reopen and organised outdoor children’s activities can resume.

From April 12 there will be a full return to schools, colleges and other education settings, all shops will reopen and close contact services will resume.

If infection rates remain stable or continue to fall, ministers will decide on April 22 whether to allow gyms and leisure centres, outdoor attractions, outdoor hospitality, weddings and organised indoor and outdoor activities to resume.

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COVID will be mostly gone by April or May due to vaccines, herd immunity: Dr. Marty Makary

The progress of vaccine rollouts and growing herd immunity means the coronavirus pandemic should all but disappear in the U.S. in April or May, Fox News medical contributor Dr. Marty Makary told “America’s Newsroom” Thursday. 

Last month, Makary — a professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health — predicted in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece that America will have “Herd Immunity by April.”

“Some people say, ‘Look, the projection I said gave people a false sense of security.’ I think it actually encouraged people to do what they need to do until we get to that point because hope is on the way and I think the numbers are pointing that way,” Makary said.

His comments came after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) predicted COVID-19 deaths could decline drastically over the coming four weeks.

CORONAVIRUS IN THE US: STATE-BY-STATE BREAKDOWN

The CDC’s forecast suggests that between 3,200 and 10,100 Americans will die of COVID-19 during the week of April 4-10. 

“We’re seeing some really good news,” said Makary, who noted that 10 states have had days in which they’ve reported no coronavirus deaths.

“I call that herd immunity,” Makary continued.

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“I don’t think we’re going to extinguish this virus, as I wrote in that piece,” he said later in the segment. “But a debate is going to ensue: ‘Who are those people?’ And those are going to be primarily young people who have asymptomatic and mild disease. They could linger through May and early June.”

As of Wednesday morning, the novel coronavirus has infected more than 120,710,811 people across 192 countries and territories, resulting in at least 2,670,763 deaths. In the U.S., all 50 states plus the District of Columbia have reported confirmed cases of COVID-19, tallying more than 29,549,010 illnesses and at least 536,914 deaths.

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COVID In Minnesota: MDH Says State Has Seen 14 ‘Vaccine Breakthrough Cases’ – WCCO

MINNEAPOLIS (WCCO) — Minnesota health officials are looking out for positive cases of COVID-19 after someone has been fully vaccinated.

These types of infections are called “vaccine breakthrough cases.” The Minnesota Department of Health says tracking positive cases 14 days or more after a second vaccine is important. It could help the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention better understand the length of immunity from the vaccines.

READ MORE: ‘I Still Can’t Believe People Think This Is Fake’: 8 Months On, Minnesota Man Still Recovering From COVID Bout

Karla was relieved when her 79-year-old mom, Sharon, received her second dose of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine on Feb. 10. Thirteen days later, she tested positive for the virus after feeling unwell.

“I was really worried about her,” Karla said. “She had a sore throat and a cough, and I’m like, ‘Mom, you need to go get tested for COVID.’”

Within a few days, she felt fine. New data suggests people are well protected after their first dose of the Pfizer vaccine, and about 95% effective after the second dose, according to Kris Ehresmann of MDH.

“The vaccine is 95% effective, that means that theoretically of 100 people vaccinated there may be five who don’t have the same level of response to provide protection,”” Ehresmann said.

MDH sent out an advisory to healthcare providers this week, asking them to look for people who test positive for COVID 14 days after completing the second dose, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic.

READ MORE: An Immune System Boost Can Help Your Body Fight COVID

Though Sharon’s case isn’t considered a vaccine breakthrough since her positive test came before the two-week cutoff after her second dose, health officials say it’s a reminder to continue to take precautions.

“You still need to mask, you still need to make sure you’re socially distancing and consider those mitigation guidelines measures that we’ve been talking about for the last year,” Ehresmann said.

Karla says she’s grateful her mom only had mild symptoms.

“It’s possible that if she wouldn’t have had the vaccine it could have been totally a different story,” she said.

MDH says they have had 14 breakthrough cases of COVID confirmed in Minnesota. All of them were in healthcare workers, and were only detected because they’re routinely tested for work. Also, all had mild or no symptoms.

MORE NEWS: Clarifying COVID: What Do We Need To Know About The J&J Vaccine?

The CDC says even getting the flu vaccine only reduces your risk by 40% to 60%.

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In Quest for Herd Immunity, Giant Vaccination Sites Proliferate

EAST HARTFORD, Conn. — With the nation’s coronavirus vaccine supply expected to swell over the next few months, states and cities are rushing to open mass vaccination sites capable of injecting thousands of shots a day into the arms of Americans, an approach the Biden administration has seized on as crucial for reaching herd immunity in a nation of 330 million.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency has joined in too: It recently helped open seven mega-sites in California, New York and Texas, relying on active-duty troops to staff them and planning many more. Some mass sites, including at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles and State Farm Stadium in suburban Phoenix, aim to inject at least 12,000 people a day once supply ramps up; the one in Phoenix already operates around the clock.

The sites are one sign of growing momentum toward vaccinating every willing American adult. Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose vaccine won emergency authorization from the Food and Drug Administration on Saturday, and both Moderna and Pfizer have promised much larger weekly shipments of vaccines by early spring. In addition to using mass sites, President Biden wants pharmacies, community clinics that serve the poor and mobile vaccination units to play major roles in increasing the vaccination rate.

With only about 9 percent of adults fully vaccinated to date, the kind of scale mass sites provide may be essential as more and more people become eligible for the vaccines and as more infectious variants of the virus proliferate in the United States.

But while the sites are accelerating vaccination to help meet the current overwhelming demand, there are clear signs they won’t be able to address a different challenge lying ahead: the many Americans who are more difficult to reach and who may be reluctant to get the shots.

The drive-through mass vaccination site on a defunct airstrip here in East Hartford, outside Connecticut’s capital, shows the promise and the drawbacks of the approach.

Run by a nonprofit health clinic, the site has become one of the state’s largest distributors of shots since it opened six weeks ago, and its efficiency has helped Connecticut become a success story. Only Alaska, New Mexico, West Virginia and the Dakotas have administered more doses per 100,000 residents.

Most of the people running mass sites are learning on the fly. Finding enough vaccinators, already challenging for some sites, could become a broader problem as they multiply. Local health care providers or faith-based groups rooted in communities will likely be far more effective at reaching people who are wary of the shots. And many of the huge sites don’t work for people who lack cars or easy access to public transportation.

“Highly motivated people that have a vehicle — it works great for them,” said Dr. Rodney Hornbake, who serves as both a vaccinator and the East Hartford site’s medic, on call for adverse reactions. “You can’t get here on a city bus.”

Before dawn on a recent raw morning, Susan Bissonnette, the nurse in charge, prepared enough vials of the Pfizer vaccine and diluent for the first few hundred shots of the day. At 7:45 a.m., her team surrounded her in a semicircle, stamping the snow off their boots and warming their fingers for the hours of injections that lay ahead.

“We’re going to start with 40 vials, eight per trailer,” Ms. Bissonnette shouted to the group of 19 nurses, a doctor and an underemployed dentist who had volunteered to help. “OK, so remember it’s Pfizer, right? Point three milliliters, right?”

The site vaccinates about 1,700 people on a good day, partly because Connecticut is small and gets fewer doses than many other states. It is a well-oiled machine, with a few dozen National Guard troops directing cars into 10 lanes, checking in people, who have to make appointments in advance, and making sure they have filled out a medical questionnaire before moving down the runway to their shots.

Troops also supervise the area at the end of the runway where people wait after their shots for 15 minutes — or 30, if they have a history of allergies — in case of serious reactions.

In between are the vaccinators, two per car lane, trading on and off between jabbing arms. When they need to warm up, they retreat inside heated trailers to draw up doses and fill out vaccination cards.

“If you simply open up with 10 lanes, it will be chaos unless you have teams all along the way at checkpoints, executing on the plan you’ve laid out,” said Mark Masselli, the president and chief executive of Community Health Center, which opened the East Hartford site on Jan. 18 and has since opened two smaller versions, in Stamford and Middletown. “You’ve got to marry some groups together — folks with health care delivery sense and folks with logistics sense.”

The site came together in six days, as Mr. Masselli’s staff worked frenetically with the state to install trailers, generators, lights, a wireless network, portable bathrooms, traffic signs and thousands of orange cones to mark the lanes. Every worker has two all-important pieces of equipment: a walkie-talkie to communicate with all the stations and supervisors, and an iPad to verify appointments or enter information about each patient into a database.

The vaccine they use is Pfizer’s, which adds complexity because it has to be stored at minus 70 degrees Fahrenheit. The supply is kept in an ultracold freezer that Community Health Center installed at the adjacent University of Connecticut football stadium. Ms. Bissonnette and other supervisors speed there in bumpy golf carts several times a day to grab more vials, which last for only two hours at room temperature.

The first cars roll in at 8:30, often driven by the adult children or grandchildren of those getting shots.

Drive-through clinics can be better for infection control, some experts say — people roll down their car windows only for the injection — and more comfortable than standing in line. But a month into the Connecticut site’s existence, its weaknesses are also clear.

Traffic can get snarled on the busy road leading to the site, and bad weather can shut it down, requiring hundreds of appointments to be rescheduled on short notice. Spotty vaccine supply, which forced sites in California to close for a few days recently, can also wreak havoc.

More significantly, you need a car, gas money and, for some elderly people, a driver to get to and from the site. At this point, white people comprise 82 percent of those seeking shots at the East Hartford site, down from 90 percent in early February; their overrepresentation is partly because the older population now eligible is less diverse than the state overall.

To address problems of access and equity, FEMA is opening many of its new mass sites in low-income, heavily Black and Latino neighborhoods where fear of the vaccine is higher, vaccination rates have been lower and many people lack cars. In addition to its mass sites, Community Health Center, which serves large numbers of poor and uninsured people in clinics around the state, is also planning to send small mobile teams into neighborhoods to extend its vaccination reach.

The East Hartford site has hired several dozen temporary nurses and trained its dentists and dental hygienists to help with the shots. Still, staffing the site with 22 vaccinators daily remains a challenge, one that will grow nationally as more people become eligible for the shots.

Dr. Marcus Plescia, the chief medical officer for the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, said the need for mass vaccination sites might wane as more and more of the low-hanging fruit — Americans who are highly motivated to get vaccinated as soon as possible — is picked.

“I think they have worked well in the current setting of demand substantially exceeding supply, drawing on many people who are eager to be vaccinated,” Dr. Plescia said. “As supply increases, and we have vaccinated the eager, we may find that lower-volume settings are preferable.”

Mobile vaccination clinics will reach some of the vaccine hesitant. But Dr. Plescia said people who are uncertain and fearful would be best served by doctors’ offices or community health centers where they can talk it through with health care providers they know.

“They’re not there to counsel you,” he said of mass sites. “You go to get the shot, end of story.”

Dr. Nicole Lurie, who was the assistant health secretary for preparedness and response under President Barack Obama, said that instead of just asking FEMA for help, state and local governments should seek input from private companies used to keeping large crowds moving — while keeping them safe and happy.

In one such example, the company running Boston’s mass vaccination sites contracted with the event management firm that runs the Boston Marathon to handle day-to-day logistics. Several companies that ran large coronavirus testing operations are also involved in mass vaccination.

“These sites need to be motivated to make this a good experience for the customer, especially since they’re working with a two-dose vaccine,” Dr. Lurie said. “If it’s really a pain in the neck, why would you go wait in line again a few weeks later?”

Most sites say their main challenge is not having enough supply to meet demand. But with 315 million more Pfizer and Moderna doses promised by the end of May, and Johnson & Johnson pledging to provide the United States with 100 million doses of its newly authorized vaccine by the end of June, that complaint may fade before long.

The biggest headache for the East Hartford site has been the system for booking appointments, a clunky online registry known as VAMS that is being used in about 10 states. Many people 65 and older have had such a hard time navigating it that most end up calling 211, the phone number for health and social services assistance, to make appointments instead.

As the hours pass, the eternally smiling vaccinators in East Hartford get tired — and sometimes bone cold. But sometimes there are unexpected boosts, such as when John Rudy, 65, pulled up with his mother, Antoinette, in the back seat.

“We’ve got a 100-year-old!” Jean Palin, a nurse practitioner, announced as she prepared Ms. Rudy’s shot.

The site usually closes at 4 p.m., but there was a problem: There were more no-shows than usual that day, in the middle of a snowy week, and there were 30 unused doses. Word went out from nurses at the site, including to people working at a nearby big-box store, who were not all eligible but could qualify for a vaccine if the alternative was throwing it away.

“It’s just a precision game toward the end of the day,” Ms. Bissonnette said.

At 5:15, Greg Gaudet, 63, drove up, teary with excitement. He had learned from one of the nurses, a former high school classmate, that a shot was available.

“I have a luckily dormant cancer, but my immunity is low,” said Mr. Gaudet, an architect whose form of leukemia was diagnosed six years ago. “I’m so grateful.”

How much the site will cost over time remains “a question that we are eager to work through,” Mr. Masselli said. Community Health Center spent about $500,000 to set it up and is spending roughly $50,000 a week on labor and other costs. It receives a fee for each shot it can bill insurance for — the Medicare rate is $16.94 for the first dose and $28.39 for the second — but is also counting on reimbursement from the state and FEMA for start-up and other costs.

Still, the expense has not stopped Mr. Masselli from imagining an expansion.

“There’s another runway over there,” he said, gesturing behind him. “Between the two, with two shifts, we could do 10,000 a day. March 14 is Daylight Saving Time; we’re going to pick up warmer weather, more light. The timing is right.”

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When will the US reach herd immunity?

New cases, hospitalizations and deaths are dropping rapidly, and the supply of available vaccine is growing.

The country could be well on its way to herd immunity, the point at which enough people are protected against a disease that it cannot spread through the population.

But it may take months to get there, and nobody expects it will feel like an overnight return to our lives before the pandemic.

More than 66 million shots have been administered, according to the latest federal data, with nearly 8% of the US population fully vaccinated. Promises from manufacturers indicate that the US should have enough vaccine supply to cover everyone by June. More than a quarter of the population may already have natural immunity after previous infection — and that number may be much higher than official counts show.

However, some new variants threaten progress, potentially lessening protection offered by vaccines and skirting some degree of natural immunity. Vaccine hesitancy may also create some limitations.

To understand how these factors may play into the future timeline of the pandemic, CNN spoke with five experts: Dr. Arturo Casadevall, chair of molecular microbiology and immunology at Johns Hopkins University; Justin Lessler, associate professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University; Jessica Malaty Rivera, science communications lead at the COVID Tracking Project; Dr. Aneesh Mehta, of the Emory Vaccine Center; and Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

Their responses have been edited below for length and clarity.

There’s still so much to learn about Covid-19. But if you had to put a number on it, what level of population protection is required to reach herd immunity against Covid-19?

Casadevall: I am in the 65-80% range. We all expect that this virus is not different from other viruses and that we will reach a point that a sufficient number of people are immune so that the virus cannot jump any more. It reaches a point that there are so few hosts, so few people that it can jump to, that the epidemic crashes. The number of cases is the threat, and in the declining curve, we see that the number of people it can jump to is dropping.

Lessler: Community immunity is a continuum. As more immunity builds, the disease becomes easier to control. Right now, control measures in place — such as masking and limiting capacity — are offering some protection, which is contributing to the drop in cases. But to get to the magic number where you can drop most of those measures and not worry about large outbreaks — there will still be some — is somewhere between two-thirds and 80%. But additional community immunity gives real benefits even when right at that threshold.

Malaty Rivera: We really need to be vaccinating at least 70% of the population. That seems potentially possible by the end of the year if there are no significant bottlenecks in production or delivery.

Mehta: I’ve seen estimates as low as 65% and as high as 95%. What I’d really like is to make sure we get to at least 75%.

Murray: Respiratory viruses are very seasonal, so the level of immunity required in the summer is much lower than in winter. Covid is less dramatically seasonal than other respiratory viruses, but as we’ve learned, it still is. I would give a summer herd immunity threshold of 65% and for winter 85%.

Individuals who have already had Covid-19 may have some natural immunity after infection. Can we count those people toward herd immunity?

Casadevall: Yes. The number of people known to have reinfection is very low. There have definitely been some cases, and they’ve been documented. But despite all this virus still floating around, people are not getting sick again, and to me that’s really encouraging

Lessler: In the short term, over the next six months or so, I would count everybody who’s been infected and most people who have been vaccinated as immune. There are some cases of reinfection, but they’re mostly among people who had a pretty mild disease in the first infection.

Malaty Rivera: No. Herd immunity can only be discussed in the context of mass vaccination. I’m on the more conservative side and very hesitant to claim that natural immunity is causing a meaningful difference in these numbers.

Mehta: Maybe. The US has had many, many infections, but they’ve been spread out over time. It’s hard to know exactly how many people have been infected, and it appears that certain people lose their immunity some time after infection. The goal should be to protect the population through vaccination.

Murray: I normally would say yes, but some evidence around the variant first discovered in South Africa brings that into question. Also, anything we know about waning natural immunity is purely speculative.

New variants potentially threaten levels of protection, both in terms of vaccine efficacy and possible reinfection. How much does this threat cut into measures of progress to herd immunity?

Casadevall: Variants are the big threat on the horizon. They have the potential to derail things, but I stress potential. We know variants are out there, but there are still very few cases of documented reinfection. What that suggests to me is that variants are not evading immune defense. The most encouraging thing to me is how rapidly that curve is coming down. It gives me hope that we’re going to crash the curve before variants become a threat.

Lessler: There are some variants that appear to be escaping that immunity and changing the equation. In a completely susceptible population, the average person with the original strain would spread the virus to three people, so you need two people to be immune to start decreasing the spread. But with some variants, the average person may spread the disease to around five people, so you need four people to be immune to cut the spread.

Malaty Rivera: The conversation around variants really needs to be around preventing infection. If we keep transmission low, we can keep variants low. As the vaccines roll out, one of the many reasons we’re still wearing masks and continuing to practice mitigation strategies is to buy ourselves time.

Mehta: We think vaccines will provide good immunity to most variants out there, but there are some — particularly the variant first identified in South Africa — that appear to have the ability to get around that and may alter our level of protection. That’s why it’s so important to vaccinate as quickly as we can. The quicker we get to higher levels of protection in our community, the chances for new variants to spread and develop diminishes.

Murray: There isn’t a very clear route to herd immunity if those variants spread, and it’s a very tricky business trying to predict at what pace they’ll spread. But cases are coming down quickly, perhaps even more than we had expected.

Some surveys still show a significant amount of vaccine hesitancy. How will this affect the path to herd immunity?

Casadevall: The number of cases is the threat, and a lot depends on what the vaccine uptake is by next year. The more cases you have, the more virus replication and the more likelihood that a person can be infected. If we keep going the way we are and crash the curve, the likelihood of a bad scenario is reduced.

Malaty Rivera: Anti-vax people are a loud minority. They don’t represent a large group of people in this country, and I don’t think they’ll have tremendous victory when it comes to things like herd immunity. Usually, the impediment to people not taking a vaccine is understanding, but we’ve had major wins with campaigns to address this.

Mehta: It’s really understandable why some people in our communities may have hesitation around the vaccine. What we need to do is continue to do a good job caring for them and being role models, not only by sharing knowledge and taking the vaccine ourselves, but continuing to take precautionary measures such as wearing a mask and practicing good hand hygiene.

Murray: If we can move from 25% of the population not being vaccinated to 10%, that really boosts herd immunity way up. Even if variants aren’t as bad as we fear, it’s still going to be pretty close and vaccinating over the tipping point would make a huge difference.

What’s the bottom line? Generally, when can we expect a return to normal?

Casadevall: No one in this world can tell you what percent of protection is needed or what date it will happen by. My gut is positive, and I do think 2021 is going to be a better year than 2020. Assuming we don’t have a variant that forces new lockdowns, I think the second half of this year will look different. We may lift restrictions in the fall, or maybe a little earlier if the rapid decline continues and the curve stays down.

Lessler: When we get to very, very low numbers of new cases, that’s going to be the sign that things can be fine. As we step back control measures, we should do so slowly and deliberately and watch for any resurgence. Some of this comes down to deciding what is normal, because the fact of the matter is we need to accept the fact that we will be living with this virus forever. It will come back again and again like the flu, but that doesn’t mean that it will always be the scourge that it is now.

Malaty Rivera: Vaccinating 70% of the population is going to be an absolute game changer for us in terms of getting back to what we could do similar to pre-Covid days. I’m optimistic that this fall is going to look very different, and hope that means things like travel and mask-free socializing with loved ones. We’re on the road to getting there if we keep the trends down.

Mehta: Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday, when everyone in the family comes together at my mother’s house. My hope — both personally and professionally — is that it happens before Thanksgiving.

Murray: I really do think it will be a quiet summer. But whether it will come back is an open question, that we won’t know the answer to until maybe December. Two powerful forces — seasonality and the scale of vaccination — combined are going to bring things down pretty steadily, but we’ll have to wait and see.

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When Could the United States Reach Herd Immunity? It’s Complicated.

With the vaccine rollout underway and coronavirus cases declining after a dark winter surge, it may seem as though the end of the pandemic is in sight. In reality, how soon could we get there?

One answer lies in herd immunity, the point when enough people are immune to the virus that it can no longer spread through the population. Getting there, however, depends not just on how quickly we can vaccinate but on other factors, too, like how many people have already been infected and how easily the virus spreads.

An estimate for the path to herd immunity

20%40%60%80%100% of population immune Herd immunity rangeTotal immunity Fully vaccinated Dec.Jan. 2021Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAug.Sept.Oct.Nov.Dec.

This chart shows the current path to herd immunity in the United States, based on a model developed by PHICOR, a public health research group. It looks at the number of people who have been fully vaccinated and combines that with an estimate of the number of people who have been infected and have recovered to measure total immunity.

When the orange line crosses into the blue area, that means we have entered the herd immunity range. The exact threshold for herd immunity for the coronavirus is unknown, but recent estimates range from 70 percent to 90 percent.

At first, this looks like pretty good news — under these assumptions, we could reach herd immunity as early as July. But a lot could happen between now and then. The speed and uptake of vaccination, and how long immunity lasts are big factors. The rise of new virus variants and how we respond to them will also affect the path to herd immunity.

In most scenarios, millions more people will become infected and tens or hundreds of thousands more will die before herd immunity is reached.

What if we speed up vaccinations?

More than 15 million people have been fully vaccinated, and the U.S. is currently administering about 1.7 million shots per day. Some experts say we could nearly double that pace by April as new vaccines are approved. (Because the current vaccines require two doses spaced weeks apart, the number of people fully vaccinated each day is smaller.)

The more people we vaccinate, the faster we could reach the threshold for herd immunity.

Choose a scenario

If the pace increases to 3 million shots per day, we could reach the herd immunity threshold by May. In that time, 90,000 people could die from the virus.

20%40%60%80%100% of population immune Herd immunity rangeTotal immunity Vaccine immunity May Threshold reached July Threshold reachedDec.Jan. 2021Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAug.Sept.Oct.Nov.Dec.

It’s important to note that the orange line for total immunity relies on an estimate of who has already been infected, including people who have immunity from undiagnosed cases. We can be more certain of reaching herd immunity when the pink line for vaccinations crosses into that range. But in a scenario where a new but less effective vaccine arrives, we might not reach the threshold through vaccination alone.

And the model comes with some other caveats. Much is still unknown about how long immunity from vaccines will last, or how well the vaccines will protect against new variants of the virus. The estimates also assume that the vaccine prevents infection rather than just reducing the severity of coronavirus symptoms.

“There are still key pieces of missing information that could substantially affect what may happen to the pandemic over the ensuing months,” Dr. Bruce Y. Lee, a professor of health policy at City University of New York who leads the research effort for PHICOR, said. “Should many people lose immunity over the next several months after having recovered from infections, that would make many more people susceptible to the virus again.”

Some experts argue that reducing deaths and severe illness is a better and more achievable goal than full herd immunity, and ramping up vaccinations is still the best way to do that.

What if we relax social distancing?

Measures like wearing masks and social distancing have proven to be effective in slowing the spread of the virus. As more people get vaccinated, it’s tempting to ease up on those precautions.

While this means we would reach herd immunity sooner because more people would get sick and develop antibodies, that speed would come at a grim cost.

Choose a scenario

If we end restrictions in April, we could reach the herd immunity threshold by June. But in that time, 170,000 more people could die from the virus.

20%40%60%80%100% of population immune Herd immunity rangeTotal immunity Vaccine immunity June Threshold reached October Threshold reachedDec.Jan. 2021Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAug.Sept.Oct.Nov.Dec.

Precautions remain especially important as new variants of the virus emerge. If social distancing measures aren’t followed, a stronger virus could rapidly infect and kill hundreds of thousands of people before they can be vaccinated.

What if a more contagious variant spreads?

A more contagious variant of the virus, like the one first identified in Britain that is now spreading throughout the United States, could further complicate the path to herd immunity.

If the virus becomes more contagious, the threshold for herd immunity will go up. It may be hard for vaccines to keep pace, and precautions will be even more necessary to stem the spread.

Choose a scenario

A more contagious variant will spread faster and raise the herd immunity threshold. We could still expect to reach herd immunity in July, but new deaths could double, to 200,000 people.

20%40%60%80%100% of population immune Herd immunity rangeTotal immunity Vaccine immunity July Threshold reached Threshold not reachedDec.Jan. 2021Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAug.Sept.Oct.Nov.Dec.

The spread of new virus variants makes it impossible to put a firm date on when we’ll reach herd immunity or when the pandemic will end. There’s a chance a mutation could lead to a version of the virus that doesn’t respond to existing immunity, leading us to start the journey to herd immunity all over again.

Dr. Lee said that coronaviruses have relatively high mutation rates and that it is likely that new variants of the virus will continue to emerge. “The question will be how different might these variants be,” he said. If a variant of the virus stops responding to the vaccine, “it will then be a matter of determining whether and when new vaccines will need to be produced.”

Methodology

The model used in this article was adapted from one originally published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine and has been updated to reflect the most recent estimates of the prevalence, transmissibility and severity of the coronavirus as of Feb. 16.

To adapt the model for the web, The New York Times worked with researchers from Public Health Informatics, Computational and Operations Research, or PHICOR: Bruce Y. Lee, Sarah M. Bartsch, Kelly J. O’Shea, Patrick T. Wedlock and Marie C. Ferguson.

Historical case data, the best available estimates of the transmissibility of the virus and the impact of social distancing measures are used to estimate the future trajectory of new cases and deaths as the vaccine is administered. Vaccine immunity represents the share of people who are fully vaccinated and have immunity, taking into account the efficacy of the available vaccines.

The model assumes that immunity lasts indefinitely and that vaccination prevents infection rather than just reducing the severity of coronavirus symptoms. It does not account for the immunity that may be gained from only a single dose of vaccine.

It is assumed that the vaccine prevents infection against current and future coronavirus variants in 90 percent of those who are fully vaccinated, and that 80 percent of the population is ultimately fully vaccinated.

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Biden Team Fears No COVID-19 Herd Immunity Until Thanksgiving

Top members of President Joe Biden’s COVID response team are warning internally that the U.S. may not reach herd immunity until Thanksgiving or even the start of winter—months later than originally calculated—according to two senior administration officials.

In an interview with CBS News this week, Biden hinted at some of these concerns, saying it would be “very difficult” to reach herd immunity—a population-wide resistance to the virus—“much before the end of the summer” with the current daily rate of approximately 1.3 million vaccine doses. Other top officials working on the federal government’s COVID-19 response say the are uneasy about vaccine supply long term and the impact on herd immunity, and have begun to explore ways to expand U.S. manufacturing capacity, potentially through new partnerships with outside pharmaceutical firms.

Beyond supply issues, though, top health officials say they are increasingly worried about the United Kingdom and South African COVID-19 variants, the likelihood that more variants will emerge in the coming months, and the possibility that those variants will evade the vaccines. There is some evidence to suggest that both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines protect against the B117 United Kingdom variant, though a recent study shows a new mutation could make the vaccines less effective. Data gathered by the Novavax and Johnson and Johnson clinical trials in South Africa suggest their vaccines are less effective against the variant spreading rapidly in the country. And South Africa recently said it was halting the rollout of the AstraZeneca vaccine because evidence from clinical trials suggested the vaccine did not work well against the variant.

Together, the recent data has alarmed health officials in the Biden administration who are now raising questions about what more can be done to not only shorten the herd immunity timeline—not just to return Americans to some sort of normalcy but also to ensure the country does not experience another surge in COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Officials have spent the last several days discussing ways to ramp up genome sequencing to track variants and how to push out the message that Americans need to more closely follow public health guidelines to reduce transmission as B117 variant cases begin to increase.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, who has previously calculated that about 75 percent of the U.S. population would need to get vaccinated to reach herd immunity, said in an interview that he is still “cautiously optimistic” that the country can achieve that goal by the beginning of the fall.

“I still think that is possible,” Fauci said. “As I’ve said before, once we get into mass vaccination when the general public starts getting it by the end of the spring—April, May, June …and we get past any vaccine hesitancy, then we should be able to reach that 70 or 75 percent mark. We’re going in the right direction.” Fauci caveated that prediction by underscoring the fact that he has ongoing concerns about the new COVID-19 variants.

In a press conference Monday, Fauci said that modeling indicates the B117 variant “could become dominant by the end of March.” “That’s the sobering news,” he said. “The two things that we can do is, A, make sure we adhere to the public health measures … and, B, get as many people vaccinated as quickly as we possibly can.” Vaccine rates have begun to improve across the country in recent days. And the Biden administration continues to announce increases in the number of doses states are receiving each week.

Still, Centers for Disease Control Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said Monday that the proliferation of variants “remains of great concern and is a threat that could reverse the recent positive trends we’re seeing.” As of this week, 699 variant cases have been confirmed across 34 states, with 690 of these cases being the B117 variant, the variant first reported in the United Kingdom, Walensky said.

The good news is that even with B117 as a dominant variant … cases plummeted when people stop having contact, when people wore masks … That is the key. We need to give a viral enemy less chance to speak.

former CDC director Tom Frieden

“The virus is going to continue to mutate no matter what we do. The types of mutations we’ll see will change as more people are immunized. And natural immunity will continue to put evolutionary pressure on the virus. So, we’ll see different types of mutations that may help it escape vaccine protection or become more transmissible,” said Rajeev Venkayya, president of Takeda Pharmaceuticals’ vaccine business. “I think the number one thing that’s going to affect supply [and access], right now is having more vaccines, demonstrating proof of efficacy and safety. And there, I think the story is very, very promising.”

With the threats of the new variants becoming more clear, the message among Biden officials and health experts alike is clear: Return back to basics. Follow the public health guidelines the CDC has recommended for the past year—masks, social distancing, and limited indoor contact.

“The more transmissible those strains of viruses, the higher threshold you need for herd immunity. The B117 variant … is very concerning,” said Tom Frieden, former director of the CDC. “The good news is that even with B117 as a dominant variant in the UK and elsewhere … cases plummeted when people stop having contact, when people wore masks, when you have people not sharing indoor air with people not in your household. That is the key. We need to give a viral enemy less chance to speak.”

Yet many cities across the country are moving in the opposite direction, and are beginning to loosen restrictions. In New York and New Jersey, for example, officials have begun to allow for increases in indoor dining and other indoor events such as weddings. Iowa’s governor just lifted the state’s mask mandate.

Walensky pushed back against those new guidelines Monday, telling reporters that she discouraged any move to loosen masking guidance. “We’re still at over 100,000 cases a day,” she said. “I think we have yet to control this pandemic. We still have this emerging threat of variants. And I would just simply discourage any of those activities. We really need to keep all of the mitigation measures at play here if we’re really going to get control of this pandemic.”

Atul Gawande, a former member of President Biden’s transition COVID-19 advisory board, said in an interview that vaccination is not the only way to combat the new variants.

“We’re going to need more than the vaccines when it comes to the strains. We have a very high rate of viral circulation. So, we’re going to continue to generate new strains. The fact that we’ve already seen strains that have some diminished effectiveness for the vaccines suggests where we could be up against,” Gawande said. “We’re going to have a year where it’s going to take a long time not just to get to people. We’re going to have significant pockets of the population that will not yet have received the vaccine, either because they don’t want it or they want to or they want to wait. We’re going to have significant circulation. The variants are increasingly defeating the monoclonal antibodies.”



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