Tag Archives: Hedge Funds

Dow falls nearly 500 points after strong data, bearish comments by David Tepper

U.S. stocks traded lower on Thursday, erasing most of their gains from their biggest rally in three weeks after a round of upbeat economic data and a warning from hedge-fund titan David Tepper that he was “leaning short” against both stocks and bonds on expectations the Federal Reserve and other central banks will continue tightening into 2023.

Positive economic news can be a negative for stocks by underlining expectations that monetary policy makers will remain aggressive in their efforts to quash inflation.

What’s happening
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -1.51%
    fell 472 points, or 1.4%, to 32,903.
  • The S&P 500
    SPX,
    -1.99%
    shed 71 points, or 1.8%, to 3,807.
  • The Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -2.84%
    fell 272 points, or 2.5%, to 10,437.

A day earlier, all three major indexes recorded their best gain in three weeks as the Dow advanced 526.74 points.

What’s driving markets

Investors saw another raft of strong economic data Thursday morning, including a revised reading on third-quarter gross domestic product which showed the U.S. economy expanded more quickly than previously believed. Growth was revised up to 3.2%, up from 2.9% from the previous revision released last month.

See: Economy grew at 3.2% rate in third quarter thanks to strong consumer spending

The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in the week before Christmas rose slightly to 216,000, but new filings remained low and signaled the labor market is still quite strong. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast new claims would total 220,000 in the seven days ending Dec 17.

“Jobless claims ticking slightly up but coming in below expectations could be a sign that the Fed’s wish of a slowing labor market will have to wait until 2023. While weekly jobless claims aren’t the best indicator of the overall labor market, they have remained in a robust range these last two months suggesting the labor market remains strong and has withstood the Fed’s tightening, at least for the time being,” said Mike Loewengart, head of model portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office, in emailed comments.

“While weekly jobless claims aren’t the best indicator of the overall labor market, they have remained in a robust range these last two months suggesting the labor market remains strong and has withstood the Fed’s tightening, at least for the time being,” he wrote. “It’s no surprise to see the market take a breather today after yesterday’s rally as investors parse through earnings data, and despite some beats this week, expectations that earnings will remain as resilient in 2023 may be overblown.”

Stocks were feeling pressure after Appaloosa Management’s Tepper shared a cautious outlook for markets based on the expectation that central bankers around the world will continue hiking interest rates.

“I would probably say I’m leaning short on the equity markets right now because the upside-downside doesn’t make sense to me when I have so many people, so many central banks, telling me what they are going to do, what they want to do, what they expect to do,” Tepper said in a CNBC interview.

Key Words: Billionaire investor David Tepper would ‘lean short’ on stock market because central banks are saying ‘what they’re going to do’

A day earlier, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey came in at an eight-month high, which helped stoke a rally in stocks initially spurred by strong earnings from Nike Inc. and FedEx Corp. released Tuesday evening. This optimistic outlook helped stocks clinch their best daily performance in three weeks.

Volumes are starting to dry up as the year winds down, making markets more susceptible to bigger moves. According to Dow Jones Market Data, Wednesday saw the least combined volume on major exchanges since Nov. 29.

Read: Is the stock market open on Monday after Christmas Day?

In other economic data news, the U.S. leading index fell a sharp 1% in November, suggesting that the U.S. economy is heading toward a downturn.

Many market strategists are positioned defensively as they expect stocks could tumble to fresh lows in the new year.

See: Wall Street’s stock-market forecasts for 2022 were off by the widest margin since 2008: Will next year be any different?

Katie Stockton, a technical strategist at Fairlead Strategies, warned clients in a Thursday note that they should brace for more downside ahead.

“We expect the major indices to remain firm next week, helped by oversold conditions, but would brace for more downside in January given the recent downturn,” Stockton said.

Others said the latest data and comments from Tepper have simply refocused investors on the fact that the Fed, European Central Bank and now the Bank of Japan are preparing to continue tightening monetary policy.

“Yesterday was the short covering rally, but the bottom line is the trend is still short and we’re still fighting the Fed,” said Eric Diton, president and managing director of the Wealth Alliance.

Single-stock movers
  • AMC Entertainment Holdings 
    AMC,
    -14.91%
    was down sharply after the movie theater operator announced a $110 million equity capital raise.
  • Tesla Inc. 
    TSLA,
    -8.18%
    shares continued to tumble as the company has been one of the worst performers on the S&P 500 this year.
  • Shares of Verizon Communications Inc. 
    VZ,
    -0.53%
    were down again on Thursday as the company heads for its worst year on record.
  • Shares of CarMax Inc. 
    KMX,
    -6.60%
    tumbled after the used vehicle seller reported fiscal third-quarter profit and sales that dropped well below expectations.
  • Chipmakers and suppliers of equipment and materials, including Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    -8.60%,
    Advanced Micro Devices 
    AMD,
    -7.17%
    and Applied Materials Inc.
    AMAT,
    -8.54%,
    were lower on Thursday.

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BofA predicts breakout in mergers due to downcycle

Mergers in software may be about to break out.

Top investment banker Rick Sherlund of Bank of America sees a wave of struggling companies putting themselves up for sale at cheaper prices due to the economic downturn.

related investing news

Ray Dalio says higher interest rates to squash inflation could tank stock prices by 20%

“You do need to see greater capitulation,” the firm’s vice chair of technology investment banking told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday. “Companies will have their valuation expectations soften, and that will combine with more fully functional financial markets. I think it will accelerate the pace of M&A [mergers and acquisitions].”

His broad analysis comes on the heels of Adobe’s $20 billion dollar deal Thursday for design platform Figma. Adobe failed to generate excitement on Wall Street. Its shares plunged 17% due to questions about the price tag.

Sherlund, a former software analyst who hit No. 1 on Institutional Investor’s all-star analyst list 17 times in a row, worked at Goldman Sachs during the 2000 tech bubble. He believes the Street is now in the beginning stages of a difficult market cycle.

“You need to get through third quarter earnings reports to feel confident that maybe the bad news is largely out into the market because companies will be reporting lengthening of sales cycles,” he said. “We need to reset expectations for 2023.”

Read more about tech and crypto from CNBC Pro

Sherlund and his team are very active in the M&A market.

“You have private equity with a boatload of cash, and they need functioning debt markets for leverage to do deals,” Sherlund noted. “They’re very eager and actively looking at this sector … It suggests that [for] M&A, in absence of an IPO market, we’re just going to see a lot more consolidation coming in the sector.”

He notes the IPO has been hurt in connection with rising interest rate headwinds and inflation.

“[The IPO market] is not open. But when the window does open back up, you are going to see a lot of companies going public,” he added.

The long-term prospects for software are extremely attractive, according to Sherlund.

“You’ve got to be very bullish on the long-term fundamentals of the sector,” Sherlund said. “Every company is becoming a digital enterprise.”

Disclaimer

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Bill Ackman to wind up SPAC, return $4 billion to investors

Bill Ackman during a Bloomberg Television interview on 1 November 2017. Billionaire investor William Ackman, who had raised $4 billion in the biggest-ever special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), told investors he would be returning the sum after failing to find a suitable target company to take public through a merger.

Christopher Goodney | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Billionaire investor William Ackman, who had raised $4 billion in the biggest-ever special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), told investors he would be returning the sum after failing to find a suitable target company to take public through a merger.

The development is a major setback for the prominent hedge fund manager who had initially planned for the SPAC to take a stake in Universal Music Group last year when these investment vehicles were all the rage on Wall Street.

In a letter sent to shareholders on Monday, Ackman highlighted numerous factors, including adverse market conditions and strong competition from traditional initial public offerings (IPOs), that thwarted his efforts to find a suitable company to merge his SPAC with.

“High quality and profitable durable growth companies can generally postpone their timing to go public until market conditions are more favorable, which limited the universe of high-quality possible deals for PSTH, particularly during the last 12 months,” said Ackman, referring to the ticker symbol for his SPAC.

In July 2020, Pershing Square Tontine raised $4 billion in its initial public offering and wooed prominent investors ranging from hedge fund Baupost Group, Canadian pension fund Ontario Teachers and mutual fund company T. Rowe Price Group.

Stock picks and investing trends from CNBC Pro:

SPACs, also known as blank-check companies, are publicly-listed shells of cash that are created by large investors — known as sponsors — for the sole purpose of merging with a private company. The process, which is similar to a reverse merger, takes the target company public.

SPACs peaked during 2020 and the early part of 2021, helping rake in paper gains worth hundreds of millions of dollars for a number of prominent SPAC creators like Michael Klein and Chamath Palihapitiya.

However, over the past year, companies that merged with SPACs have performed poorly, forcing investors to shun blank-check deals. That coupled with tighter regulatory scrutiny and a downturn in equity markets have practically shut down the SPAC economy, with several billions of dollars at stake.

Moreover, the record-breaking performance of regular IPOs in the United States in 2021 posed competitive challenges for SPAC sponsors like Ackman, as several richly valued startups chose to list their shares on exchanges through traditional routes instead.

“The rapid recovery of the capital markets and our economy were good for America but unfortunate for PSTH, as it made the conventional IPO market a strong competitor and a preferred alternative for high-quality businesses seeking to go public,” Ackman said.

In July last year, Ackman’s efforts to take a 10% stake in Universal Music, which was being spun off by French media conglomerate Vivendi, through his SPAC were derailed due to regulatory hurdles. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission objected to the deal and Ackman put the investment into his hedge fund instead.

“While there were transactions that were potentially actionable for PSTH during the past year, none of them met our investment criteria,” Ackman said.

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Prosecutors Say JPMorgan Traders Scammed Metals Markets by Spoofing

CHICAGO—

JPMorgan Chase

& Co.’s precious-metals traders consistently manipulated the gold and silver market over a period of seven years and lied about their conduct to regulators who investigated them, federal prosecutors said Friday.

The bank built a formidable franchise trading precious metals, but some of it was based on deception, prosecutors said at the start of a trial of two former traders and a co-worker who dealt with important hedge-fund clients. They said the traders engaged in a price-rigging strategy known as spoofing, which involved sending large, deceptive orders that fooled other traders about the state of supply and demand. The orders were often canceled before others could trade with them.

The criminal trial in Chicago is the climax of a seven-year Justice Department campaign to punish alleged spoofing in the futures markets. Prosecutors have alleged the former members of

JPMorgan’s

JPM -0.31%

precious-metals desk constituted a sort of criminal gang that carried out a yearslong conspiracy that racked up big profits for the bank.

“Day in, day out for seven years, the defendants manipulated the market so that they could make more money,” U.S. Justice Department prosecutor Lucy Jennings said. “And then they lied to cover it up.”

JPMorgan paid $920 million in 2020 to resolve regulatory and criminal charges over the conduct, which involved nine futures traders and at least two salespeople who dealt with clients such as hedge funds, according to court records. Three former traders cooperated with the Justice Department’s investigation and will testify against the three defendants: Gregg Smith and Michael Nowak, who traded precious metals; and Jeffrey Ruffo, who was their liaison to big hedge funds whose trades earned money for the bank.

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Attorneys for Messrs. Smith, Nowak and Ruffo told jurors Friday that prosecutors cherry-picked a handful of trades to concoct a misleading theory of how the men traded.

Mr. Smith canceled many orders but never used them as a ruse, defense attorney Jonathan Cogan said. He often canceled orders after he realized that high-speed trading firms, which made decisions faster than he could, jumped ahead of his orders and moved the price up or down, Mr. Cogan said.

“He did not place orders with the intent to manipulate the market, not during the snippets of time the prosecutors will focus on in this case—not ever,” Mr. Cogan said.

An attorney for Mr. Nowak, who led the precious-metals desk, said his client was a gold-options trader during the years under scrutiny. Mr. Nowak used futures mostly to limit the risk of his large options positions, attorney David Meister said, so his pay wasn’t linked to making more or less money on a futures trade.

“The stuff he’s charged with here couldn’t move the needle for Mike’s pay,” Mr. Meister said.

Mr. Smith had worked at Bear Stearns before joining JPMorgan in 2008 when the bank acquired Bear in a fire sale precipitated by the financial crisis. Mr. Nowak traded for JPMorgan in both London and New York. Mr. Ruffo worked at the bank for a decade, communicating with hedge funds that were brokerage clients and providing the desk with important market intelligence, according to prosecutors. All three have pleaded not guilty.

Prosecutors have alleged the pattern of spoofing was continuous, a claim that allowed them to charge the three men with racketeering in addition to conspiracy, attempted price manipulation, fraud, and spoofing. The conduct allegedly spanned from 2008 to 2016.

Racketeering is a charge typically reserved for criminal enterprises such as the mafia and violent gangs, although eight soybean-futures traders in Chicago were convicted of racketeering in a crackdown on cheating in the early 1990s.

U.S. District Judge Edmond E. Chang has reserved up to six weeks for the trial, although prosecutors said Friday that they could be finished presenting their case within two weeks. Judge Chang last year dismissed part of the case—several counts of bank fraud—against the defendants. Prosecutors also recently moved to drop allegations related to options trading that authorities claimed had been manipulative.

Prosecutors have alleged that JPMorgan employees already were spoofing when Mr. Smith got to the bank. They say Mr. Smith and another trader from Bear brought a new style of spoofing that was more aggressive than the simpler approach people at JPMorgan had been using, according to court records.

Spoofing became an important way to successfully execute trades for hedge-fund clients whose fees were critical to the trading desk, prosecutors said. “It was key to get the best prices for those clients, so that they keep coming back to the precious-metals desk at JPMorgan, and not another bank,” Ms. Jennings said.

Guy Petrillo, an attorney for Mr. Ruffo, said Friday his client was a reliable and honest salesman whose only role was to communicate with clients and pass their orders to traders such as Messrs. Smith and Nowak.

“There will be no reliable evidence that Jeff knew that traders were using trading tactics that he understood at the time were unlawful,” Mr. Petrillo said.

Federal prosecutors have honed a formula for going after spoofing defendants during their multiyear strike on the practice. In addition to using cooperating witnesses who said they knew the conduct was wrong, prosecutors have deployed trading charts and electronic chats to depict a sequence of trades intended to deceive others in the market. While the charts show a pattern of allegedly deceptive trading, prosecutors said the incriminating chats reveal the intent of the traders placing the orders.

Former traders at

Deutsche Bank AG

and

Bank of America Corp.

were convicted of spoofing-related crimes in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

Those trials featured chats in which some defendants boasted about spoofing.

Lawyers for Messrs. Smith, Nowak and Ruffo said there are no chats in which their clients talked about spoofing because the men didn’t engage in it.

Spoofing is a form of market manipulation outlawed by Congress in 2010. Spoofers send orders priced above or below the best prices, so they don’t immediately execute. Those orders create a false appearance of supply and demand, prosecutors say. The tactic is designed to move prices toward a level where the spoofer has placed another order he wants to trade. Once the bona fide order is filled, the spoofer cancels the deceptive orders, often causing prices to move back to where they were before the maneuver started.

Mr. Smith’s style of spoofing involved layering multiple deceptive orders at different prices and in rapid succession, according to the settlement agreement that JPMorgan struck with prosecutors two years ago. It was harder to pull off but also harder to detect, and other JPMorgan traders adopted his mode of trading, court records say.

In the earlier trials, prosecutors successfully defended their theory that spoofing constitutes a type of fraud. Some traders have argued spoofing doesn’t involve making false statements—usually a precondition for fraud—because electronic orders don’t convey any intent or promises.

The tactic can impose losses on those tricked by spoofing patterns. The government has portrayed some of Wall Street’s most sophisticated trading firms, such as Citadel Securities and Quantlab Financial, as the past victims of spoofers. In the latest trial, prosecutors also plan to call individual traders who traded for their own accounts and were harmed by spoofing.

Write to Dave Michaels at dave.michaels@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Employees Scrambled to Keep Robinhood Afloat in January 2021 Meme-Stock Frenzy, House Report Finds

Robinhood Markets struggled to handle huge volumes of stock trading and sparred with its principal customer, market maker Citadel Securities, during the week in January 2021 when meme stocks exploded, according to a report from the Democratic staff of the House Financial Services Committee.

The committee held hearings in February 2021, questioning the chief executives of Robinhood and Citadel Securities, as well as meme-stock hero Keith Gill and Gabe Plotkin, the hedge-fund manager who lost billions betting against GameStop and other hot stocks. The staff reviewed tens of thousands of pages of internal documents, including pointed communications inside and between the companies.

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‘The pain will go on’

Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates, Founder, Co-Chairman & Co-CIO, at the WEF in Davos, Switzerland on May 24th, 2022.

Adam Galica | CNBC

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio is right to have bet against European stocks, and global markets still have a rough road ahead, according to Beat Wittmann, partner at Zurich-based Porta Advisors.

Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates has at least $6.7 billion in short positions against European stocks, according to data group Breakout Point, which aggregated the firm’s public disclosures. It is unknown whether Bridgewater’s shorts are outright bets against the stocks, or part of a hedge.

The Connecticut-based fund’s 22 short targets in Europe include a $1 billion bet against Dutch semiconductor equipment supplier ASML Holding, $705 million against France’s TotalEnergies and $646 million against French drugmaker Sanofi, according to the Breakout Point data. Other big names also shorted by the firm include Santander, Bayer, AXA, ING Groep and Allianz.

“I think he’s on the right side of the story, and it’s quite interesting to see what strategies have performed best this year,” Porta’s Wittmann told CNBC on Friday.

“It’s basically the trend-following quantitative strategies, which performed very strongly – no surprise – and interestingly the short-long strategies have been pretty disastrous, and of course, needless to say that long-only has been the worst, so I think right now he is on the right side of this investment strategy.”

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index is down more than 16% year-to-date, although it hasn’t quite suffered the same degree of pain as Wall Street so far.

However, Europe’s proximity to the conflict in Ukraine and associated energy crisis, along with the global macroeconomic challenges of high inflation and supply chain issues, has led many analysts to downgrade their outlooks on the continent.

“The fact that all these shorts appeared within few days indicates index-related activity. In fact, all of shorted companies belong to the STOXX Europe 50 Index,” said Breakout Point Founder Ivan Cosovic.

“If this is indeed the STOXX Europe 50 Index-related strategy, that would imply that other index’s components are also shorted but are currently under disclosure threshold of 0.5%. It is unknown to us to which extent these disclosures may be an outright short bet, and to which extent a hedge against certain exposure.”

Dalio’s firm is generally bearish on the global economy and has already positioned itself against sell-offs in U.S. Treasuries, U.S. equities and both U.S. and European corporate bonds.

‘I don’t think we are close to any bottom’

Despite what was shaping up to be a slight relief rally on Friday, Wittmann agreed that the picture for stock markets globally could get worse before it gets better.

“I don’t think we are close to any bottom in the overall indexes and we cannot compare the average downturns of the last 40 years, when we had basically a disinflationary trend since the [Paul] Volcker time,” he said.

Volcker was chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve between 1979 and 1987, and enacted steep interest rate rises widely credited with ending high inflation that had persisted through the 1970s and early 1980s, though sending unemployment soaring to almost 11% in 1981.

“We have a real complex macro situation now, unhinged inflation rates, and if you just look at the fact in the U.S. market that we have the long Treasury below 3.5%, unemployment below 4%, inflation rates above 8% — real interest rates have hardly moved,” Wittmann added.

“If you look at risk indicators like the volatility index, credit spreads, default rates, they’re not even halfway gone where they should be in order to form a proper bear market bottom, so there’s a lot of deleveraging still to go on.”

Many loss-making technology stocks, “meme stocks” and cryptocurrencies have sold off sharply since central banks began their hawkish pivot to get a grip on inflation, but Wittmann said there is more to come for the broader market.

“A lot of the heat is being addressed right now, but the key indicator here I still think is high yield debt spreads and default rates, and they have simply not reached territory which is at any stage here interesting to invest in, so the pain will go on for quite a while.”

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Melvin Capital to Close Funds, Return Cash to Investors

Melvin Capital plans to close its funds and return the cash to its investors, capping a stunning reversal for a firm that lost big on the surge in meme stocks last year and on wagers on growth stocks this year.

In a letter to investors that was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal,

Gabe Plotkin,

Melvin’s founder, wrote that he reached his decision after conferring with Melvin’s board of directors during a monthslong process of reassessing his business.

“The past 17 months has been an incredibly trying time for the firm and you, our investors,” he wrote. “I have given everything I could, but more recently that has not been enough to deliver the returns you should expect. I now recognize that I need to step away from managing external capital.”

Asset bubbles are easy enough to define, but not so simple to identify. WSJ’s Gunjan Banerji explains what bubbles are exactly, how they form and what happens when they burst. Illustration: Jacob Reynolds for The Wall Street Journal

Melvin had been, until last year, one of the top-performing hedge funds—its track record of about 30% a year after fees before 2021 was among the best on Wall Street. It was especially known for its prowess in shorting, or betting against, stocks. In 2015, gains from Melvin’s shorts made up two-thirds of the fund’s 67% returns before fees. Mr. Plotkin bought a minority stake in the National Basketball Association’s Charlotte Hornets, plus a $44 million oceanfront mansion in Miami Beach.

But Melvin’s short positions blew up in January 2021 when individual investors on online forums such as Reddit’s WallStreetBets banded together to push up prices of shares, like those of

GameStop Corp.

, that Melvin was betting against. At the worst point that month, Melvin, which managed $12.5 billion at the start of last year, was hemorrhaging more than $1 billion a day.

While Melvin had made up some of those losses by the end of the year, its focus on fast-growing companies dealt it further setbacks this year as investors soured on such stocks in the face of rising interest rates. Stock pickers also have blamed losses this year on macroeconomic factors like inflation and the war in Ukraine that have hit the market, instead of companies’ own fundamentals. Melvin’s losses widened.

Melvin this year through April had lost 23%, on top of a 39.3% loss in 2021—a huge hole investors expected could take years to make up if Mr. Plotkin didn’t shut down in the interim. Since its start, it has averaged an 11.9% return.

Still, several investors on Wednesday said they were surprised by the decision.

Melvin’s executives as recently as last week had been asking clients for their thoughts on what new fee arrangements seemed fair to them and to Melvin, people familiar with the firm said. Mr. Plotkin in April tried to do away with Melvin’s so-called high-water mark, a standard industry arrangement in which hedge funds don’t collect performance fees until their clients are made whole from prior investment losses. The proposal was part of a broader restructuring effort meant in part to retain and motivate his team, but it met with resistance.

Some investors were so incensed by the proposal they said they planned to redeem all their money at the first opportunity. Mr. Plotkin withdrew his plan days later and apologized to investors, saying he would consult with all of Melvin’s clients as the firm worked to figure out a new path forward.

Investors had been sharing various proposals they thought would be fair, including one by which Mr. Plotkin would keep the current terms until the end of the year and then implement a modified high-water mark that would have let Melvin collect lower performance fees, people familiar with the firm said.

Mr. Plotkin wrote in the letter, “I have worked tirelessly for 20 years to try to be the best I could be and to build and lead an exceptional team of professionals…Being a steward of your capital requires an unrelenting focus. I am proud of what our team has accomplished since 2007.”

He wrote he expected to return nearly all of his clients’ money by late July. Firmwide, Melvin managed $7.8 billion as of April.

Write to Juliet Chung at juliet.chung@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Appeared in the May 19, 2022, print edition as ‘Melvin To Close Funds, Pay Back Investors.’

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Steve Cohen’s Point72 to reportedly redeem $750 million from Melvin Capital

Steven A. Cohen

Getty Images

Billionaire investor Steve Cohen’s Point72 Asset Management is pulling out the $750 million it invested in Melvin Capital Management, Bloomberg News reported on Saturday.

Point72 will soon start redeeming the money in portions over time, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter.

Both Melvin Capital, founded by Gabe Plotkin, and Point72 declined to comment.

Point72 has another investment in Melvin, with that pool of money remaining untouched, according to the report.

Melvin Capital, the hedge fund at the center of the GameStop trading frenzy, lost 49% on its investments during the first three months of 2021.

Hedge fund managers Cohen and Kenneth Griffin had stepped in to aid Plotkin in January last year with Griffin’s Citadel and Cohen’s Point72 adding $2.75 billion to the firm.

Melvin Capital lost 15% in January this year.

Read the complete Bloomberg report here.

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Ackman’s Pershing Square is back at Canadian Pacific. Here’s what’s ahead

A Canadian Pacific Railway locomotive pulls a train in Calgary, Alberta, Canada, on Monday, March 22, 2021.

Alex Ramadan | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Company: Canadian Pacific (CP)

Business: Canadian Pacific owns and operates a transcontinental freight railway in Canada and the United States. The company transports bulk commodities, including grain, coal, potash, fertilizers, and sulfur. It also moves merchandise freight, such as energy, chemicals and plastics, metals, minerals, and consumer, automotive, and forest products. Further, Canadian Pacific also transports intermodal traffic comprising retail goods in overseas containers. The company offers rail and intermodal transportation services through a network of approximately 13,000 miles serving business centers in Quebec and British Columbia, Canada; and the United States Northeast and Midwest regions. Through its merger with Kansas City Southern, Canadian Pacific will now have access into Mexico, creating the first single-line rail network that links the U.S., Mexico and Canada.

Stock Market Value: $72.3B ($77.63 per share)

Activist: Pershing Square

Percentage Ownership:  1.59%

Average Cost: n/a

Activist Commentary: Pershing Square, managed by Bill Ackman, is a very well respected and successful activist. While the firm does not take a lot of activist positions relative to other activists, the positions it does take are generally large, well-conceived and fully committed. Pershing Square typically looks for the following: (i) a high-quality business, (ii) simple, predictable, cash flow generative, durable growth concept and (iii) a business where there is an opportunity to be a catalyst. Pershing Square previously had a well-publicized activist campaign at Canadian Pacific between 2011 and 2016, making a return of 153.30% on their 13D situation versus 70.13% for the S&P 500.

What’s Happening?

Behind the Scenes

Pershing Square previously filed a 13D on Canadian Pacific on Oct. 28, 2011, and that became one of the most successful and significant activist campaigns of the past 20 years. There are three major elements of an activist campaign: (i) developing a plan to create value, (ii) getting into a position to implement that plan and (iii) successfully executing that plan. Pershing Square impressed on all accounts. They developed a plan to replace the CEO with Hunter Harrison, the “Michael Jordan” of railroad CEOs. They fought a long and hard proxy fight with a very high degree of difficulty at the time and ultimately replaced most of the board. Further, the execution of the plan went either as expected or better than expected, creating significant value for shareholders. Pershing Square reluctantly exited this investment with a 153% return in 2016 when the stock was trading at $27.28 per share (split adjusted) due to a slew of redemption requests related to other Pershing Square investments. 

Their fingerprints are all over the present company. They have since been watching Canadian Pacific, looking for a good entry point for investment, which never came as the company’s stock went almost straight up since then. The opportunity now presented itself in the form of the Canadian Pacific/Kansas City Southern merger. While the acquisition has closed, the merger is still subject to final approval by the Surface Transportation Board, which is expected to be received by the fourth quarter of 2022.

On a standalone basis, Canadian Pacific has been doing very well, with Hunter Harrison mentee Keith Creel at the helm since Harrison’s departure. Creel has done, and continues to do, an amazing job growing the company and running it efficiently. Canadian Pacific’s merger with KCS will create the only railroad that travels between Mexico, the U.S. and Canada and create opportunities for revenue growth and on the efficiency side. With respect to efficiency, Creel can apply the same discipline he and Hunter Harrison applied at CP to optimize the operations of KCS.  

But the better opportunity is on the revenue side. Most importantly, having a single railroad that can efficiently move goods from Canada all the way to Mexico is a huge advantage in attracting customers. But there are also several other tailwinds that have been highlighted and magnified by the present war in Ukraine. First, the United States is making a push to improve its infrastructure, which should lead to more transportation of goods throughout the country. Second, with gas at historically high levels, companies are going to be looking for the cheapest way to ship their goods. Third, North American companies have already been losing their willingness to rely on China as a distribution partner and are looking to keep their supply chain closer to home. The war in Ukraine and the possibility of China moving on Taiwan in the future has greatly elevated this concern.

Additionally, there is an ESG benefit here as railroads are an energy efficient way to transport goods. According to the association of American Railroads, using 50 rail cars to ship food from California to Ohio instead of trucks would take 126 trucks off the road and eliminate 391.5 tons of carbon dioxide from being released into the atmosphere if trucks were used.

We expect Canadian Pacific 2.0 to be a very different situation compared to the first time around. Bill Ackman likes this CEO. In fact, he is somewhat responsible for him being there. This will be very amicable and if Pershing Square does take a board seat here, it will be to support management as a long-term investor in a large investment for them. When you have the premier management team in an industry, you want to add assets and revenue to it. That is exactly what Pershing Square sees happening at Canadian Pacific.

Ken Squire is the founder and president of 13D Monitor, an institutional research service on shareholder activism, and the founder and portfolio manager of the 13D Activist Fund, a mutual fund that invests in a portfolio of activist 13D investments.

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Top 15 hedge fund managers raked in $15.8 billion last year

What a difference a year makes.

The list of highest performing hedge fund titans in 2021 is here — and there’s more than a few upsets among the 15 managers who raked in a collective $15.8 billion last year.

Citadel’s Ken Griffin jumped to 1st place on the list after coming in 5th last year, according to financial data compiled by Bloomberg. He hauled in $2 billion in 2021 — up from $1.8 billion in 2020. Thanks to another record year at Citadel, his net worth is now approximately $28 billion.

TCI’s Chris Hohn, a British billionaire who was knighted in 2014, may have nabbed an even more impressive honorary title in Wall Street circles: 2nd place on the list of high-performing hedge fund managers. Hohn has placed big bets on big tech — including Microsoft and Alphabet — and that strategy paid off in 2021.

Newcomer to the list, Karthik Sarma of SRS Investment Management, cracked the top three slots this year after a bet he placed 11 years ago on rental car company Avis finally paid off. Sarma owns roughly 50% of Avis and made an estimated $2 billion as the stock surged 456% this year.

But unlike Griffin, whose collection of homes is estimated at a whopping $1 billion, Sarma’s real estate is more modest — he spent the pandemic living with his sister and her family in a middle-class suburban home in New Jersey.

Steve Cohen nabbed the 7th spot two years in a row.
Corey Sipkin for NY Post

The residence may prevent him from splurging on a fleet of Ferraris — his sister’s home only has a two-car garage.

Noticeably absent from the list was Tiger Global Management’s Chase Coleman who held the top spot in 2020. In 2020, Coleman placed big bets on so-called stay-at-home stocks including Zoom and Peloton that made huge gains during the pandemic. This year those stocks were far less lucrative.

However, Coleman may be placing bets that could pay off down the line. Tiger has revved up it’s focus on investing in startups — it made 335 startup investments last year.

Top 15 Hedge Fund Billionaires Company
Ken Griffin Citadel
Chris Hohn TCI
Karthik Sarma SRS
Izzy Englander Millennium
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies
Dan Sundheim D1 Capital
Steve Cohen Point72
David Shaw D.E. Shaw
Ray Dalio Bridgewater
Bill Ackman Pershing Square
Pau Singer Elliot Management
Dan Loeb Third Point
Larry Robbins Glenview
Steven Schonfeld Schonfeld
Richard Mashaal Senvest
These 15 billionaires made huge gains 2021, according to Bloomberg

Melvin Capital’s Gabe Plotkin, who came in 15th last year, was nowhere to be seen this year. Plotkin is likely still licking his wounds after the now-famous short squeeze on meme stock GameStop crushed his fund in January 2021.

Millenium’s Izzy Englander, whose a regular on the list, was bumped from 3rd in 2020 to 4th this year — putting him right behind Sarsa. Likewise Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies slipped from 2nd in 2020 to 5th this year.

Mets owner Steve Cohen of Point 72 nabbed the 7th spot for the second year in a row.

Other notable names on the list this year were Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio, D.E. Shaw’s David Shaw, Elliott Management’s Paul Singer, and Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman.

Third Point’s Dan Loeb, Senvest’s Richard Mashaal, and Steven Schonfeld who runs an eponymous fund made their debut on the list.

Pershing Square CEO Bill Ackman made the list.
Bloomberg via Getty Images
Third Point’s Dan Loeb made his debut on the list this year.
Bloomberg via Getty Images

While a nearly $16 billion is nothing to sneeze at for a year’s work, that number is more than 30 percent lower year over year. Thanks to the pandemic-induced volatility of 2020, hedge fund managers pulled in $23 billion the year before.

The information about billionaire’s bets is found in a quarterly filing known as a 13F in which institutional investment managers with more than $100 million in assets are required to disclose their holdings.

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