Tag Archives: heating

Women’s 200m Heating Up With Sha’Carri Richardson’s 21.61, Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce’s Debut – FloTrack

  1. Women’s 200m Heating Up With Sha’Carri Richardson’s 21.61, Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce’s Debut FloTrack
  2. Sha’Carri Richardson wins U.S. women’s 100-meter to advance to World Championships Yahoo Sports
  3. Track and Field Community Gathers to Support Sha’Carri Richardson’s Outrage on USATF’s Meagre $8,000 Prize Money EssentiallySports
  4. Upset in men’s 100 highlights Day 2 of US Outdoor Championships The Register-Guard
  5. Former Gorman high jumper adds another US title to collection Las Vegas Review-Journal
  6. View Full Coverage on Google News

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Dalvin Cook rumor mill heating up with Dolphins in mix, plus no love for Zeke and top five rookie RBs of 2023 – CBS Sports

  1. Dalvin Cook rumor mill heating up with Dolphins in mix, plus no love for Zeke and top five rookie RBs of 2023 CBS Sports
  2. NFL Insider Tom Pelissero Talks Dalvin, Purdy, Chargers & More with Rich Eisen | Full Interview The Rich Eisen Show
  3. Should win-now Jets add Dalvin Cook to their crowded backfield? – ESPN – New York Jets Blog- ESPN ESPN
  4. Dalvin Cook news: NFL teams make free agent RB contract offers Broncos Wire
  5. “Go Get Him!” – Jets Fan Rich Eisen on the Possibility of Dalvin Cook to NYJ | The Rich Eisen Show The Rich Eisen Show
  6. View Full Coverage on Google News

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Atmospheric dust may have hidden true extent of global heating | Climate crisis

Dust that billows up from desert storms and arid landscapes has helped cool the planet for the past several decades, and its presence in the atmosphere may have obscured the true extent of global heating caused by fossil fuel emissions.

Atmospheric dust has increased by about 55% since the mid-1800s, an analysis suggests. And that increasing dust may have hidden up to 8% of warming from carbon emissions.

The analysis by atmospheric scientists and climate researchers in the US and Europe attempts to tally the varied, complex ways in which dust has affected global climate patterns, concluding that overall, it has worked to somewhat counteract the warming effects of greenhouse gasses. The study, published in Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, warns that current climate models fail to take into account the effect of atmospheric dust.

“We’ve been predicting for a long time that we’re headed toward a bad place when it comes to greenhouse warming,” said Jasper Kok, an atmospheric physicist at UCLA who led the research. “What this research shows is that so far, we’ve had the emergency brake on.”

About 26m tons of dust are suspended in our atmosphere, scientists estimate. Its effects are complicated.

Dust, along with synthetic particulate pollution, can cool the planet in several ways. These mineral particles can reflect sunlight away from the Earth and dissipate cirrus clouds high in the atmosphere that warm the planet. Dust that falls into the ocean encourages the growth of phytoplankton – microscopic plants in the ocean – that absorb carbon dioxide and produce oxygen.

Dust can also have a warming effect in some cases – darkening snow and ice, and prompting them to absorb more heat.

But after they tallied everything up, it seemed clear to researchers that the dust had an overall cooling effect.

“There are all these different factors that play into the role of mineral dusts in our atmosphere,” said Gisela Winckler, a climate scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University. “This is the first review of its kind to really bring all these different aspects together.”

Although climate models have so far been able to predict global heating with quite a bit of accuracy, Winckler said the review made clear that these predictions haven’t been able to pin down the role of dust especially well.

Limited records from ice cores, marine sediment records, and other sources suggest that dust overall had also been increasing since pre-industrial times – in part due to development, agriculture, and other human impacts on landscapes. But the amount of dust also seems to have been decreasing since the 1980s.

More data and research is needed to better understand these dust patterns, Winckler said, and better predict how they will change in coming years.

But if dust in the atmosphere is decreasing, the warming effects of greenhouse gases could speed up.

“We could start to experience faster and faster warming because of this,” Kok said. “And maybe we’re waking up to that reality too late.”

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Atmospheric dust may have hidden true extent of global heating | Climate crisis

Dust that billows up from desert storms and arid landscapes has helped cool the planet for the past several decades, and its presence in the atmosphere may have obscured the true extent of global heating caused by fossil fuel emissions.

Atmospheric dust has increased by about 55% since the mid-1800s, an analysis suggests. And that increasing dust may have hidden up to 8% of warming from carbon emissions.

The analysis by atmospheric scientists and climate researchers in the US and Europe attempts to tally the varied, complex ways in which dust has affected global climate patterns, concluding that overall, it has worked to somewhat counteract the warming effects of greenhouse gasses. The study, published in Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, warns that current climate models fail to take into account the effect of atmospheric dust.

“We’ve been predicting for a long time that we’re headed toward a bad place when it comes to greenhouse warming,” said Jasper Kok, an atmospheric physicist at UCLA who led the research. “What this research shows is that so far, we’ve had the emergency brake on.”

About 26m tons of dust are suspended in our atmosphere, scientists estimate. Its effects are complicated.

Dust, along with synthetic particulate pollution, can cool the planet in several ways. These mineral particles can reflect sunlight away from the Earth and dissipate cirrus clouds high in the atmosphere that warm the planet. Dust that falls into the ocean encourages the growth of phytoplankton – microscopic plants in the ocean – that absorb carbon dioxide and produce oxygen.

Dust can also have a warming effect in some cases – darkening snow and ice, and prompting them to absorb more heat.

But after they tallied everything up, it seemed clear to researchers that the dust had an overall cooling effect.

“There are all these different factors that play into the role of mineral dusts in our atmosphere,” said Gisela Winckler, a climate scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University. “This is the first review of its kind to really bring all these different aspects together.”

Although climate models have so far been able to predict global heating with quite a bit of accuracy, Winckler said the review made clear that these predictions haven’t been able to pin down the role of dust especially well.

Limited records from ice cores, marine sediment records, and other sources suggest that dust overall had also been increasing since pre-industrial times – in part due to development, agriculture, and other human impacts on landscapes. But the amount of dust also seems to have been decreasing since the 1980s.

More data and research is needed to better understand these dust patterns, Winckler said, and better predict how they will change in coming years.

But if dust in the atmosphere is decreasing, the warming effects of greenhouse gases could speed up.

“We could start to experience faster and faster warming because of this,” Kok said. “And maybe we’re waking up to that reality too late.”

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Kyiv mayor says heating restored in capital after latest Russian strikes | Ukraine

Heating has been fully restored to Kyiv, the city’s mayor has said, after one of the most intense Russian bombardments of the capital last week robbed it of key civilian energy supplies and forced the national government to implement rolling blackouts.

Vitali Klitschko said on Sunday morning the capital was successfully “restoring all services after the latest shelling” and that “in particular, the capital’s heating supply system is fully restored. All sources of heat supply work normally.”

Temperatures in Kyiv and across the country were below freezing on Sunday and forecast to fall to -6C (21.2F) by evening. Up to a third of the capital’s population of 3 million had still been without electricity overnight in what officials called a “difficult and critical” situation.

A wave of Russian drone and missile attacks since October has caused severe damage to Ukraine’s civilian energy and electricity infrastructure as it enters the cold winter months. Russia fired more than 70 missiles targeting Ukraine’s water and energy infrastructure on Friday in one of its heaviest barrages since the beginning of its invasion on 24 February, causing power blackouts and removing access to heat and water.

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Four people in the southern Russian border region of Belgorod were meanwhile wounded by shelling on Sunday, the governor said, and witnesses reported loud blasts in the regional capital. In Ukraine, shelling was also reported in the centre of Kherson, the major city from which Russian soldiers retreated last month in one of Moscow’s biggest battlefield setbacks since its invasion.

Britain’s defence ministry said in its intelligence assessment on Sunday that low morale continued to be a “significant vulnerability” for Russia’s forces, highlighting Moscow’s plans for a creative brigade in a bid to use “military music and organised entertainment” to boost morale.

The ministry in London said it doubted the new brigade would compensate for “very high casualty rates, poor leadership, pay problems, lack of equipment and ammunition, and lack of clarity about the war’s objectives”.

Moscow said the Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, visited troops involved in what it calls its special military operation in Ukraine after the defence ministry this week announced the formation of a “frontline creative brigade”, including vocalists and musicians, to raise morale.

RBC news in Russia cited officials as saying the brigade would feature conscripted and volunteer professional artists tasked with maintaining “a high moral, political and psychological state [among] the participants of the special military operation”.

The ministry said Shoigu “flew around the areas of troop deployment and checked the advanced positions of Russian units in the zone of the special military operation”, adding that he spoke with frontline troops. It is not clear where.

Sergei Shoigu looks through a military helicopter’s window as he inspects Russian troops at an undisclosed location in Ukraine. Photograph: AP

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, on Sunday proposed holding a global peace summit this winter, in a video message Kyiv had hoped would be broadcast ahead of the World Cup final in Qatar.

In an interview published on Sunday, the veteran US diplomat Henry Kissinger said the time was approaching for a negotiated peace to reduce the risk of a devastating world war, but warned that dreams of breaking up Russia could unleash nuclear chaos.

Kissinger, 99, was secretary of state under the Republican presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford and an architect of the cold war policy of detente towards the former Soviet Union. He has met the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, on several occasions.

“The time is approaching to build on the strategic changes which have already been accomplished and to integrate them into a new structure towards achieving peace through negotiation,” Kissinger wrote in an article for the Spectator magazine.

“A peace process should link Ukraine to Nato, however expressed. The alternative of neutrality is no longer meaningful,” he wrote, adding that desires to render Russia “impotent”, or even seek its dissolution – which neither the west nor Ukraine has advocated – could unleash mayhem.

William Burns, the director of the CIA, said in an interview published on Saturday that while most conflicts ended in negotiation, the agency’s assessment was that Russia was not serious yet about a real negotiation to end the war.

The archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, said on Sunday that Russia’s war on Ukraine had “opened the gates of hell”, unleashing “every evil” force worldwide from murder and rape in occupied territory to famine and debt in Africa and Europe.

He said after a visit to Ukraine last month he had been struck by the “size of the mass graves in Bucha, the photos of what had been done to the people there, the rape, the massacres, the torture by the occupying Russian forces”.

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Kim’s daughter appears again, heating up succession debate

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s daughter made a public appearance again, this time with missile scientists and more honorific titles as her father’s “most beloved” or “precious” child. She’s only about 10, but her new, bold photos are deepening the debate over whether she’s being primed as a successor.

The daughter, believed to be Kim’s second child named Ju Ae and about 9 or 10 years old, was first unveiled to the outside world last weekend in state media photos showing her observing the North’s intercontinental ballistic missile launch the previous day with her parents and other older officials. The daughter wearing a white puffy coat and red shoes was shown walking hand-in-hand with Kim past a huge missile loaded on a launch truck and watching a soaring weapon.

On Sunday, the North’s official Korean Central News Agency mentioned her for the second time, saying she and Kim took group photos with scientists, officials and others involved in what it called the test-launch of its Hwasong-17 ICBM.

KCNA described her as Kim’s “most beloved” or “precious” child, a more honorific title than her previous description of “(Kim’s) beloved” child on its Nov. 19 dispatch. State media-released photos showed the daughter in a long, black coat holding her father’s arm as the two posed for a photo. Taking after her mother Ri Sol Ju, who wasn’t visible in any of the photos Sunday, she had a more mature appearance than in her unveiling a week ago.

Some photos showed the pair standing in the middle of a line of uniformed soldiers before a massive missile atop a launch truck. Others showed Kim’s daughter clapping her hands, exchanging handshakes with a soldier or talking to her father as people cheered in the background.

“This is certainly striking. The photograph of Kim Ju Ae standing alongside her father while being celebrated by technicians and scientists involved in the latest ICBM launch would support the idea that this is the start of her being positioned as a potential successor,” said Ankit Panda, an expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“State media underscoring her father’s love for her further underscores this, I think. Finally, both of her initial public appearances have been in the context of strategic nuclear weapons — the crown jewels of North Korea’s national defense capabilities. That doesn’t strike me as coincidental,” Panda said.

After her first public appearance, South Korea’s spy service told lawmakers that it assessed the girl pictured is Kim’s second child, who is about 10 and whose name is Ju Ae. The National Intelligence Service said her looks matched information that she is taller and bigger than other girls of the same age. It also said that her unveiling appeared to reflect Kim’s resolve to protect the security of North Korea’s future generations in the face of a standoff with the United States.

South Korean media previously speculated Kim has three children — born in 2010, 2013 and 2017 — and that the first child is a son while the third is a daughter. The unveiled daughter is highly likely the child who retired NBA star Dennis Rodman saw during his 2013 trip to Pyongyang. After that visit, Rodman told the British newspaper The Guardian that he and Kim had a “relaxing time by the sea” with the leader’s family and that he held Kim’s baby daughter, named Ju Ae.

North Korea has made no mention of Kim’s reported two other children. But speculation that his eldest child is a son has led some experts to question how a daughter can be Kim’s successor given the deeply male-dominated, patriarchal nature of North Korean society. Kim is a third-generation member of the family that has run North Korea for more than seven decades, and his father and grandfather successively governed the country before he inherited power in late 2011.

“We’ve been told that Kim has three children, including possibly a son. If this is true, and if we assume that the male child — who has yet to be revealed — will be the heir, is Ju Ae truly Kim’s most ‘precious,’ from a succession standpoint?” said Soo Kim, a security analyst at the California-based RAND Corporation. “I think it is too early to draw any conclusions.”

She said that Kim Jong Un may think his daughter’s unveiling is an effective distraction while conditioning Washington, Seoul and others to living with the North Korean nuclear threat as “the spectacle of Ju Ae appears to eclipse the intensifying gravity of North Korea’s nuclear and missile threat.” She added that by parading his daughter around, Kim Jong Un may also want to tell his people that nuclear weapons are the sole guarantor for the country’s future.

In comments published by state media Sunday, Kim called the Hwasong-17 “the world’s strongest strategic weapon” and said his country’s ultimate goal is possessing “the world’s most powerful strategic force.”

Experts say the Hwasong-17 is North Korea’s longest-range missile — designed to strike the mainland U.S. — but is still under development. Its launch was part of a barrage of missile tests that North Korea says were meant to issue a warning over U.S.-South Korean military drills that it views as an invasion rehearsal.

“Kim may be signaling to other North Korean elites that he is mentoring his daughter for a role in the leadership,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.

“Giving her such an early and public start is unusual but reflects the historical and political significance Kim attaches to a nuclear missile that can reach the United States,” he added.

Analyst Cheong Seong-Chang at the private Sejong Institute in South Korea said that Kim Jong Un cannot make his son his successor if he thinks he lacks leadership. Cheong said Kim may be preventing potential pushback for choosing a daughter as a fourth-generation leader, so he likely brought her to a successful ICBM launch event to help public loyalty toward him be carried on smoothly to his daughter.

“When a king has many children, it’s natural for him to make his most beloved child as his successor,” Cheong said. “Kim Ju Ae is expected to appear occasionally at Kim Jong Un’s public events and take a succession training.”

Revealing the young Ju Ae came as a huge surprise to foreign experts, as Kim Jong Un and his father Kim Jong Il were both first mentioned in state media dispatches after they became adults. Cheong, however, said Kim Jong Il had Kim Jong Un in mind as his heir when his son was 8 years old. Cheong cited his conversations with Kim Jong Un’s aunt and her husband, who defected to the United States.

The fact that the South Korean spy agency said Ju Ae is about 10 years old despite reportedly being born in 2013 could be related to the country’s age-calculating system that typically makes people’s ages one or two years older.

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Heating climate could increase risk of Arctic ‘virus spillover’ | Climate Crisis News

A warming climate could bring viruses in the Arctic into contact with new environments and hosts, increasing the risk of “viral spillover”, according to newly published research.

Viruses need hosts like humans, animals, plants or fungi to replicate and spread, and occasionally they can jump to a new one that lacks immunity, as seen with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Scientists in Canada wanted to investigate how climate change might affect spillover risk by examining samples from the arctic landscape of Lake Hazen.

It is the largest lake in the world entirely north of the Arctic Circle, and “was truly unlike any other place I’ve been”, researcher Graham Colby, now a medical student at the University of Toronto, told the AFP news agency.

The team sampled soil that becomes a riverbed for melted glacier water in the northern summer, as well as the lakebed itself, which required clearing snow and drilling through two metres of ice, even in May — springtime in Canada — when the research was carried out.

They used ropes and a snowmobile to lift the lake sediment through almost 300 metres (980 feet) of water, and samples were then sequenced for DNA and RNA, the genetic blueprints and messengers of life.

“This enabled us to know what viruses are in a given environment, and what potential hosts are also present,” said Stephane Aris-Brosou, an associate professor in the University of Ottawa’s biology department, who led the work.

But to find out how likely they were to jump hosts, the team needed to examine the equivalent of each virus and host’s family tree.

“Basically what we tried to do is measure how similar these trees are,” said Audree Lemieux, first author of the research.

Similar genealogies suggest a virus has evolved along with its host, but differences suggest spillover.

And if a virus has jumped hosts once, it is more likely to do so again.

‘Very unpredictable’

The analysis found pronounced differences between viruses and hosts in the lakebed, “which is directly correlated to the risk of spillover,” said Aris-Brosou.

The difference was less stark in the riverbeds, which the researchers theorise is because water erodes the topsoil, removing organisms and limiting interactions between viruses and potential new hosts.

Those instead wash into the lake, which has seen “dramatic change” in recent years, the study says, as the water from melting glaciers deposits more sediment.

“That’s going to bring together hosts and viruses that would not normally encounter each other,” Lemieux said.

The authors of the research, published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences journal, caution they are neither forecasting an actual spillover nor a pandemic.

“The likelihood of dramatic events remains very low,” Lemieux said.

They also warn more work is needed to clarify how big the difference between viruses and hosts needs to be to create serious spillover risk.

But they argue that warming weather could increase risks further if new potential hosts move into previously inhospitable regions.

“It could be anything from ticks to mosquitoes to certain animals, to bacteria and viruses themselves,” said Lemieux.

“It’s really unpredictable … and the effect of spillover itself is very unpredictable, it can range from benign to an actual pandemic.”

The team wants more research and surveillance work in the region to understand the risks.

“Obviously we’ve seen in the past two years what the effects of spillover can be,” said Lemieux.

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Global heating is turning white Alps green, study finds | Climate crisis

The impact of global heating on the Alps is visible from space, with the snow-white mountains increasingly colonised by green plants, according to a study of high-resolution satellite data.

Vegetated areas above the treeline in the Alps have increased by 77% since 1984, the study says. While retreating glaciers have symbolised the speed of global heating in the Alpine region, researchers described the increases in plant biomass as an “absolutely massive” change.

Rising temperatures and increased rainfall are prolonging the growing season, with plants colonising new areas, and becoming denser and taller. Snow cover is decreasing, and the scientists said losses of less than 10% of snow cover above the treeline were still significant.

“The scale of the change has turned out to be absolutely massive in the Alps,” said Prof Sabine Rumpf, of the University of Basel, and lead author of the paper which was published in Science.

Mountain areas are heating about twice as fast as the global average. And while the greening of the Alps could increase carbon sequestration, this is likely to be outweighed by negative implications, including thawing permafrost, a reduced albedo effect – less snow reflecting away sunlight – and habitat loss.

According to Rumpf, more plants at high altitudes could paradoxically threaten many specialist Alpine plants, which are well adapted to harsh conditions but not very competitive. As conditions become conducive to growth, these are crowded out by more vigorous, common plants from lower altitudes.

“The unique biodiversity of the Alps is therefore under considerable pressure,” said Rumpf.

In contrast to vegetation, snow cover above the treeline has changed more modestly, declining significantly in almost 10% of the area, which excludes glaciers and areas below 1,700 metres. The researchers said this was still a worrying trend.

Prof Antoine Guisan, of the University of Lausanne, said: “Previous analyses of satellite data hadn’t identified any such trend. This may be because the resolution of the satellite images was insufficient or because the periods considered were too short.”

Although the high-resolution data does not detect changes in the depth of snow, ground-based measurements have shown decreases in depth at low elevations for some years.

The scientists said that as larger areas of the Alps turned from white to green, a feedback loop was created that led to an increased pace of heating and snow melt.

“Greener mountains reflect less sunlight and therefore lead to further warming – and, in turn, to further shrinkage of reflective snow cover,” Rumpf said of the albedo effect.

Heating also causes further melting of glaciers and the thawing of permafrost, which may lead to more landslides, rockfalls and mudflows.

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Using geoengineering to slow global heating risks malaria rise, say scientists | Malaria

Geoengineering to prevent the worst impacts of climate breakdown could expose up to a billion more people to malaria, scientists have found.

The report, published in Nature Communications, is the first assessment of how geoengineering the climate could affect the burden of infectious diseases.

Geoengineering includes removing carbon dioxide from the sky so the atmosphere will trap less heat, and solar radiation management (SRM) – reflecting more sunlight away from the planet so less heat is absorbed in the first place. The latter could be done in various ways, including spraying particles into the sky to reflect the sun away from the earth.

This study looked at the latter, specifically injecting aerosols into the stratosphere that reflect incoming sunlight, thereby temporarily “pausing” global warming. Though SRM is often discussed as a way to reduce climate injustice, its potential impacts on health have seldom been studied.

Scientists modelled what malaria transmission could look like in two future scenarios, with medium or high levels of global warming, with and without geoengineering. The models identify which temperatures are most conducive for transmission by the Anopheles genus of mosquito and identify how many people live in areas where transmission is possible.

They found that in some areas, the high temperatures predicted killed the malaria parasite, so rapidly cooling the area could reverse those declines, leading to a rise in the disease. In the high warming scenario, simulations found that a billion extra people were at risk of malaria in the geoengineered world.

“The implications of the study for decision-making are significant,” said Colin Carlson an assistant research professor at Georgetown University Medical Center and lead author of the study. “Geoengineering might save lives, but the assumption that it will do so equally for everyone might leave some countries at a disadvantage when it comes time to make decisions. If geoengineering is about protecting populations on the frontlines of climate change, we should be able to add up the risks and benefits — especially in terms of neglected health burdens, such as mosquito-borne disease.”

Other findings include that geoengineering could reduce malaria in some places while increasing it in others. For example, in both scenarios, the authors found that geoengineering might substantially reduce malaria risk in the Indian subcontinent even compared with the present day. However, that protective effect would be offset with an increase in risk in south-east Asia.

“On a planet that’s too hot for humans, it also gets too hot for the malaria parasite,” says Carlson. “Cooling the planet might be an emergency option to save lives, but it would also reverse course on those declines.”

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‘Historic’: global climate plans can now keep heating below 2C, study shows | Climate crisis

For the first time the world is in a position to limit global heating to under 2C, according to the first in-depth analysis of the net zero pledges made by nations at the UN Cop26 climate summit in December.

Before these pledges it was more than likely that at the peak of the climate crisis there would be a temperature rise above 2C, bringing more severe impacts for billions of people. Now it is more likely that the peak temperature rise will be about 1.9C.

However, the researchers said this depended on all nations implementing their pledges on time and in full, and warned that the policies to do so were not in place. The pledges also include those that developing countries have said will not happen without more financial and technical support.

Achieving the pledges needed for the 2C limit was a “historic milestone” and good news, the scientists said. However, they said the bad news was that the cuts in global emissions currently planned by 2030 were way off track to keep the peak below 1.5C. That is the global goal, but currently there is less than a 10% chance of hitting that target.

People across the planet are already facing intensifying heatwaves, floods and storms with the 1.2 C of heating caused by humanity’s emissions to date, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned in 2018 of far worse if heating continues above 1.5C.

The 2C limit being within reach was “big news”, said Christophe McGlade at the International Energy Agency, a member of the team behind the new analysis. “It’s the first time that governments have come forward with specific targets that can hold global warming to below the symbolic 2C level.”

“These results are clearly a cause for optimism,” he added. “We’ve come a long way since the Paris agreement was signed back in 2015. But now the real work has to start. The pledges have not yet been backed up by the strong and credible near-term policies needed to make them a reality.”

Prof Malte Meinshausen, at the University of Melbourne, Australia, another team member, said having the 2C limit in sight was a “historic milestone”.

But he said: “Our study also clearly shows that increased action this decade is necessary. Otherwise, we’re going to blast through the remaining carbon budget for 1.5C.” A major IPCC report earlier in April said global emissions must peak and start to fall within 30 months to keep the 1.5C target alive.

The new analysis, published in the journal Nature, is the first peer-reviewed study to assess the peak temperature rise that would result from countries fulfilling their pledges. It used two independent modelling approaches, one of which assessed more than 1,400 different scenarios and included recent pledges on shipping and aviation emissions.

By the end of Cop26, 153 nations had submitted new climate pledges to the UN, with countries responsible for 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions committing to reach net zero between 2050 and 2070. These have made the 2C limit a possibility, though the scientists warned that uncertainties about how the planet responds to rising emissions meant there remained a 5% chance of a temperature above 2.8C.

The climate policies actually in place today would mean a peak of about 2.6C, leading to “massive climate damages around the world”, said McGlade. The commitments made by countries so far up to 2030 only cut that peak to 2.4C. The IPCC has said that limiting heating to 1.5C requires reducing CO2 emissions by 45% by 2030 compared with 2010.

But emissions were on track to rise by 7-15% by 2030, a “sobering assessment”, the scientists said, with any delay in action putting 1.5C “out of reach”. If the world does overshoot this target, then ensuring a “livable future” would rely on a massive rollout of technology that can suck CO2 from the air, as well as large-scale reforestation.

The new research gave a much clearer picture of our likely climate future, said Frances Moore, at the University of California, and Zeke Hausfather, the climate research lead at Stripe, in a commentary in Nature. They said it showed the goal of ratcheting up the initial climate pledges made in 2015 in Paris had been “partially realised”.

“But optimism should be curbed until promises to reduce emissions in the future are backed up with stronger short-term action,” they said. “It is easy to set ambitious climate targets for 30, 40 or even 50 years in the future, but it is much harder to enact the policies [needed] today.”

Moore and Hausfather also warned of the danger of geopolitical tensions, including Russia’s war in Ukraine: “It would be a mistake to rule out a future characterised by resurgent nationalism that strains global cooperation and leads to increasing reliance on domestic fossil-fuel resources and a corresponding rise in emissions.”

“Policymakers are standing at a crossroads,” said McGlade. “We can choose to lock in emissions and deepen the energy crisis. Or we can use this moment to take an honest step towards a cleaner, safer future.”

McGlade said there were many policies that could make immediate or near-term impacts on the energy and climate crises, including reducing speed limits on roads, accelerating the rollout of renewable energy and electric vehicles, and stopping the venting of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, from oil and gas production facilities and putting it into supply instead.

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