Tag Archives: Health care industry

Abbott Laboratories reportedly faces U.S. criminal probe

Person’s hand holding a bottle of Similac baby formula from Abbott Laboratories in Lafayette, California, May 13, 2022.

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Abbott Laboratories is under investigation by the Department of Justice, NBC News confirmed on Saturday, citing a spokesperson for the company.

“DOJ has informed us of its investigation and we’re cooperating fully,” according to spokesman Scott Stoffel.

The Wall Street Journal first reported that Abbott Labs was under criminal investigation related to the company’s manufacturing of infant formula, citing “people familiar with the matter.”

 NBC News has not confirmed the focus of the investigation.

Abbott voluntarily shut down production of its Sturgis, Michigan, infant formula manufacturing plant on Feb. 17, 2022, after infants who consumed formula made at the plant became sick. The shutdown contributed to a nationwide infant formula shortage.

As NBC News previously reported, federal investigators were unable to definitively determine the source or sources of a rare bacteria called Cronobacter that sickened four infants, two of them now dead, who all consumed powdered formula made at Abbott’s Michigan factory.

The company signed a consent decree with the federal government in May that laid out what it would do before re-opening its plant.   

A Food and Drug Administration press release that accompanied the consent decree described DOJ’s complaint filed on behalf of the FDA: “…the government alleges that powdered infant formula products manufactured at Abbott Nutrition’s Sturgis facility were adulterated because they were made under insanitary conditions and in violation of current good manufacturing practice requirements.”

Production at the Michigan factory, which makes three of the country’s most popular brands, Similac, Alimentum and EleCare resumed in June, 2022. 

Abbott said in a previous statement provided to NBC News that it “continue[s] to enhance our manufacturing and quality processes to ensure that our products remain free of Cronobacter Sakazakii” and has “already begun implementing corrective actions and enhancements at the facility.”

The company also said that the lack of a genetic match between sick infants and the formula confirmed its own internal testing showing there was no link and said it has not found the bacteria in any of its distributed products. 

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250,000 kindergartners are vulnerable due to drop in vaccination rate

Nearly a quarter of a million kindergartners are vulnerable to measles due to a dip in vaccination coverage during the pandemic, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The CDC, in a report published Thursday, found that 93% of kindergartners were up to date with state-required vaccines during the 2021-22 school year, a decline of 2% from 2019-20.

“While this might not sound significant, it means nearly 250,000 kindergartners are potentially not protected against measles,” Dr. Georgina Peacock, head of the CDC’s immunization services division, said during a call with reporters Thursday.

“And we know that measles, mumps and rubella vaccination coverage for kindergartners is the lowest it has been in over a decade,” Peacock said.

Kindergartners are required to be vaccinated against measles, mumps and rubella; chickenpox; polio; and diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis. The vaccination rate for measles, mumps and rubella was 93.5% during the 2021-22 school year, below the target coverage of 95% to prevent outbreaks.

An ongoing measles outbreak in Columbus, Ohio, has spread to 83 children, 33 of whom were hospitalized. None of the children have died. The overwhelming majority of the kids, 78, were not vaccinated.

“These outbreaks harm children and cause significant disruptions in their opportunities to learn and grow and thrive,” said Dr. Sean O’Leary, who heads the American Academy of Pediatrics committee on infectious disease. “This is alarming and it should be a call to action for all of us.”

The CDC report looked at whether the kindergartners had received the second dose of their measles, mumps and rubella vaccine. Two doses are 97% effective at preventing disease and one dose is about 93% effective, according to the CDC.

Measles is a highly contagious virus that spreads when someone coughs or sneezes and contaminates the air, where the virus can linger for up to two hours. It can also spread when a person touches a contaminated surface and then touches their eyes, nose or mouth.

The virus is so contagious that a single person can spread the virus to 90% of people close to them who do not have immunity through vaccination or a previous infection, according to the CDC.

Measles can be dangerous for children younger than 5, adults older than 20, pregnant women, and people with compromised immune systems.

About 1 in 5 unvaccinated people who catch it are hospitalized. About 1 in 20 kids get pneumonia, and one in 1,000 have brain swelling that can cause disabilities. Symptoms begin with a high fever, cough, runny nose and red eyes. White spots appear in the mouth two to three days later, and a rash breaks out on the body.

CDC officials said disruptions to schools and the health-care system during the Covid pandemic are largely responsible for the decline in vaccination rates.

“We know that the pandemic really had a disruption to health-care systems,” Peacock said. “Part of it is that well-child visits maybe were missed and people are still trying to catch up on those well-child visits.”

“We know that the schools had a lot of things to focus on and in some cases maybe they were not able to gather all that documentation on the vaccinations,” Peacock said. “Or because children were at home for a lot of the pandemic, that may have not been the emphasis while they were focused on testing and doing all those other things related to the pandemic.”

In a separate report published Thursday, the CDC found that coverage for what’s known as the combined seven-vaccine series actually increased slightly among children born in 2018-19 by the time they turned two, compared with kids born in 2016-17.

This seven-vaccine series includes shots against measles, chickenpox, polio, hepatitis B, streptococcus pneumoniae, haemophilus influenzae or Hib, and diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis.

However, the CDC found that there were major income and racial disparities. Vaccination coverage declined by up to 5% during the pandemic for those living below the poverty level or in rural areas. Black and Hispanic children had lower vaccination rates than white children.

O’Leary said that while misinformation about vaccines is a problem, the vast majority of parents are still getting their kids vaccinated. He said inequality is the bigger issue.

“The things we really need to focus on are addressing access and child poverty,” O’Leary said.

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Pfizer CEO says there will be no generic Paxlovid for China

An online pharmacy lists Pfizer’s oral anti-Covid drug Paxlovid for 2,980 yuan per box in in Suqian, Jiangsu province, China on Dec. 13, 2022.

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Pfizer is not in talks with Chinese authorities to license a generic version of its Covid-19 treatment Paxlovid for use there, but is in discussions about a price for the branded product, Chief Executive Albert Bourla said on Monday.

Reuters reported on Friday that China was in talks with Pfizer to secure a license that will allow domestic drugmakers to manufacture and distribute a generic version of the U.S. firm’s Covid-19 antiviral drug Paxlovid in China.

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Referring to that report, Bourla speaking at JPMorgan’s healthcare conference in San Francisco, said “We are not in discussions. We have an agreement already for local manufacturing of Paxlovid in China. So we have a local partner that will make Paxlovid for us, and then we will sell it to the Chinese market.”

Bourla said the company had shipped thousands of courses of the treatment in 2022 to China and in the past couple of weeks, had increased that to millions.

On Sunday, China’s Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) said that the country would not include Paxlovid in an update to its list of medicines covered by basic medical insurance schemes as the U.S. firm quoted a high price for the Covid-19 drug.

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Bourla said that talks with China on future pricing for the treatment had broken off after China had asked for a lower price than Pfizer is charging for most lower middle income countries.

“They are the second highest economy in the world and I don’t think that they should pay less than El Salvador,” Bourla said.

Still, Bourla said the removal from the list would not have an effect on the company’s business there until April. He said the company had shipped millions of courses of the drug to China in recent weeks.

The company could end up selling only to the private market in China, he said.

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BioNTech says it will start cancer vaccine trials in the UK from September

A NHS vaccinator administers the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 booster jab to a woman, at a vaccination centre in London. BioNTech is launching a large-scale trial of mRNA therapies to treat cancer and other diseases in the U.K.

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LONDON — The U.K. government on Friday announced a partnership with German firm BioNTech to test potential vaccines for cancer and other diseases, as campaigners warned any breakthrough must remain affordable and accessible.

Cancer patients in England will get early access to trials involving personalized mRNA therapies, including cancer vaccines, which aim to spur the immune system to attack harmful cells.

They will be administered to early and late-stage patients and target both active cancer cells and preventing their return.

BioNTech will set up new research and development centers in the U.K., with a lab in Cambridge and headquarters in London, and aim to deliver 10,000 therapies to patients from September 2023 until the end of the decade.

The company developed one of the most widely-distributed Covid-19 vaccines alongside U.S. pharma firm Pfizer. Its CEO, Ugur Sahin, said it had learned lessons from the coronavirus pandemic about collaboration between the British National Health Service, academics, regulators and the private sector in the development of drugs that it was applying now.

“Our goal is to accelerate the development of immunotherapies and vaccines using technologies we have been researching for over 20 years,” he said in a statement. “The collaboration will cover various cancer types and infectious diseases affecting collectively hundreds of millions of people worldwide.”

Peter Johnson, Britain’s National Clinical Director for Cancer, said mRNA technology had the potential to transform approaches to a number of illnesses.

The government confirmed to CNBC the announcement represented a private investment into the U.K., but would be supported by a new Cancer Vaccine Launch Pad funded by the NHS.

Other mRNA cancer vaccines, including a collaboration between U.S. firms Moderna and Merck, are also being trialed.

Tim Bierley, a campaigner at U.K.-based group Global Justice Now, said big pharmaceutical companies had “terrible record of price gouging on new medicines, even where public money has played a key role in bringing them to the market.”

“The government has a moral duty to push BioNtech to set the price of this potentially life-saving vaccine so it is accessible to all,” he said.

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Mohga Kamal-Yanni, policy co-lead for the People’s Vaccine Alliance — a global group of health organizations, economists and activists — said news of the trial was good, but that any outcome “belongs to the people” due to the amount of public funding involved.

“The U.K. government must say how it will ensure any new medicine, vaccine or technology will be made available and affordable to developing countries,” Kamal-Yanni said.

A government spokesperson told CNBC the research was at too early a stage to discuss pricing and distribution, but pointed to its record in distributing free Covid-19 vaccines.

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BioNTech says it will start cancer vaccine trials in the UK from September

A NHS vaccinator administers the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 booster jab to a woman, at a vaccination centre in London. BioNTech is launching a large-scale trial of mRNA therapies to treat cancer and other diseases in the U.K.

Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

LONDON — The U.K. government on Friday announced a partnership with German firm BioNTech to test potential vaccines for cancer and other diseases, as campaigners warned any breakthrough must remain affordable and accessible.

Cancer patients in England will get early access to trials involving personalized mRNA therapies, including cancer vaccines, which aim to spur the immune system to attack harmful cells.

They will be administered to early and late-stage patients and target both active cancer cells and preventing their return.

BioNTech will set up new research and development centers in the U.K., with a lab in Cambridge and headquarters in London, and aim to deliver 10,000 therapies to patients from September 2023 until the end of the decade.

The company developed one of the most widely-distributed Covid-19 vaccines alongside U.S. pharma firm Pfizer. Its CEO, Ugur Sahin, said it had learned lessons from the coronavirus pandemic about collaboration between the British National Health Service, academics, regulators and the private sector in the development of drugs that it was applying now.

“Our goal is to accelerate the development of immunotherapies and vaccines using technologies we have been researching for over 20 years,” he said in a statement. “The collaboration will cover various cancer types and infectious diseases affecting collectively hundreds of millions of people worldwide.”

Peter Johnson, Britain’s National Clinical Director for Cancer, said mRNA technology had the potential to transform approaches to a number of illnesses.

The government confirmed to CNBC the announcement represented a private investment into the U.K., but would be supported by a new Cancer Vaccine Launch Pad funded by the NHS.

Other mRNA cancer vaccines, including a collaboration between U.S. firms Moderna and Merck, are also being trialed.

Tim Bierley, a campaigner at U.K.-based group Global Justice Now, said big pharmaceutical companies had “terrible record of price gouging on new medicines, even where public money has played a key role in bringing them to the market.”

“The government has a moral duty to push BioNtech to set the price of this potentially life-saving vaccine so it is accessible to all,” he said.

CNBC Health & Science

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Mohga Kamal-Yanni, policy co-lead for the People’s Vaccine Alliance — a global group of health organizations, economists and activists — said news of the trial was good, but that any outcome “belongs to the people” due to the amount of public funding involved.

“The U.K. government must say how it will ensure any new medicine, vaccine or technology will be made available and affordable to developing countries,” Kamal-Yanni said.

A government spokesperson told CNBC the research was at too early a stage to discuss pricing and distribution, but pointed to its record in distributing free Covid-19 vaccines.

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China’s big cities are starting to look past Covid, while rural areas brace for infections

Subway passenger traffic in Shanghai is quickly returning to levels seen before the latest Covid wave, according to Wind data. Pictured here is a subway car in the city on Jan. 4, 2023.

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BEIJING — China will likely be able to live with Covid-19 by the end of March, based on how quickly people have returned to the streets, said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie.

Subway and road data show traffic in major cities is rebounding, he pointed out, indicating the worst of the latest Covid wave has passed.

“The dramatic U-turn in China’s Covid policy since mid-Nov implies deeper short-term economic contraction but faster reopening and recovery,” Hu said in a report Wednesday. “The economy could see a strong recovery in Spring.”

In the last several days, the southern city of Guangzhou and the tourist destination of Sanya said they’d passed the peak of the Covid wave.

Chongqing municipal health authorities said Tuesday that daily visitors to major fever clinics was just over 3,000 — down sharply from Dec. 16 when the number of patients received topped 30,000. The province-level region has a population of about 32 million.

Chongqing was the most congested city in mainland China during Thursday morning’s rush hour, according to Baidu traffic data. The figures showed increased traffic from a week ago across Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other major cities.

As of Wednesday, subway ridership in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou had climbed significantly from the lows of the last few weeks — but had only recovered to about two-thirds of last year’s levels, according to Wind Information.

Caixin’s monthly survey of services businesses in December found they were the most optimistic they’d been in about a year-and-a-half, according to a release Thursday. The seasonally adjusted business activity index rose to 48 in December, up from a six-month low of 46.7 in November.

That below-50 reading still indicates a contraction in business activity. The index for a separate Caixin survey of manufacturers edged down to 49 in December, from 49.4 in November. Their optimism was the highest in ten months.

Poorer, rural areas next

Shanghai medical researchers projected in a study that the latest Covid wave would pass through major Chinese cities by the end of 2022, while rural areas — and more distant provinces in central and western China — would be hit by infections in mid- to late-January.

“The duration and magnitude of upcoming outbreak could be dramatically enhanced by the extensive travels during the Spring Festival (January 21, 2023),” the researchers said in a paper published in late December by Frontiers of Medicine, a journal sponsored by China’s Ministry of Education.

Typically hundreds of millions of people travel during the holiday, also known as the Lunar New Year.

The researchers said senior citizens, especially those with underlying health conditions, in China’s remote areas face a greater risk of severe illness from the highly transmissible omicron variant. The authors were particularly worried about the lack of medicine and intensive care units in the the countryside.

Even before the pandemic, China’s public health system was stretched. People from across the country often traveled to crowded hospitals in the capital city of Beijing in order to get better health care than they could in their hometowns.

Oxford Economics senior economist Louise Loo remained cautious about a rapid rebound in China’s economy.

“A normalisation in economic activity will take some time, requiring among other things a change in public perceptions towards contracting Covid and vaccine effectiveness,” Loo said in a report Wednesday.

The firm expects China’s GDP will grow by 4.2% in 2023.

Lingering long-term risk

The medical researchers also warned of the risk that omicron outbreaks on the mainland “might appear in multiple waves,” with new surges in infections possible in late 2023. “The importance of regular monitoring of circulating SARS-CoV-2 sublineages and variants across China shall not be overestimated in the months and years to come.”

However, amid a lack of timely information, the World Health Organization said Wednesday it was asking China for “more rapid, regular, reliable data on hospitalizations and deaths, as well as more comprehensive, real-time viral sequencing.”

China in early December abruptly ended many of its stringent Covid controls that had restricted business and social activity. On Sunday, the country is set to formally end a quarantine requirement for inbound travelers, while restoring the ability of Chinese citizens to travel abroad for leisure. The country imposed strict border controls beginning in March 2020 in an attempt to contain Covid domestically.

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China home prices fell at faster rate in December: real estate survey

People visit a residential sales office in Shandong Province, China, on Dec. 15, 2022. Home prices in 100 cities fell for the sixth month in a row in December, according to a private Chinese survey.

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China’s home prices fell at a faster pace in December, according to a private survey on Sunday, reflecting persistently weak demand amid rising Covid-19 cases despite a slew of support measures.

China’s property market crisis worsened this summer, with official data showing home prices, sales and investment all falling in recent months, adding pressure on the faltering economy.

Home prices in 100 cities fell for the sixth month in a row in December, declining 0.08% from a month earlier after falling 0.06% in November, according to the survey by China Index Academy, one of the country’s largest independent real estate research firms.

Among the 100 cities, 68 cities posted a fall in monthly prices, compared with 57 in November, the survey showed.

China has in recent weeks ramped up support for the industry in a bid to relieve a long-running liquidity squeeze that has hit developers and delayed completion of many housing projects, further undermining buyers’ confidence. The moves have included lifting a ban on fundraising via equity offerings for listed property firms.

The property sector has also got a slight boost after Beijing abruptly dropped its strict zero-Covid policy in early December, which could lure consumers back to showrooms. But the virus is now spreading largely unchecked and likely infecting millions of people a day, according to some international health experts.

“Real estate policies may continue to maintain an accommodative tone with room for policy easing on the supply and demand side in 2023,” said the real estate research firm, adding “the housing market is expected to stabilize gradually next year.”

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China manufacturing contracts sharply as Covid infections soar

A textile factory on December 30, 2022 in Jiangxi Province. Chinese manufacturing activity contracted at its sharpest pace in nearly 3 years in December.

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China’s factory activity shrank for the third straight month in December and at the sharpest pace in nearly three years as Covid infections swept through production lines across the country after Beijing’s abrupt reversal of anti-virus measures.

The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 47.0 from 48.0 in November, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Saturday. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected the PMI to come in at 48.0. The 50-point mark separates contraction from growth on a monthly basis.

The drop was the biggest since the early days of the pandemic in February 2020.

The data offered the first official snapshot of the manufacturing sector after China removed the world’s strictest Covid restrictions in early December. Cumulative infections likely reached 18.6 million in December, UK-based health data firm Airfinity estimated.

Analysts said surging infections could cause temporary labour shortages and increased supply chain disruptions. Reuters reported on Wednesday that Tesla plans to run a reduced production schedule at its Shanghai plant in January, extending the reduced output it began this month into next year.

Weakening external demand on the back of growing global recession fears amid rising interest rates, inflation and the war in Ukraine may further slow China’s exports, hurting its massive manufacturing sector and hampering an economic recovery.

While (the factory PMI) was lower than expected, it is actually hard for analysts to provide a reasonable forecast given the virus uncertainties over the past month.”

Zhou Hao

chief economist, Guotai Junan International

“Most factories I know are way below where they could be this time of year for orders next year. A lot of factories I’ve talked to are at 50%, some are below 20%,” said Cameron Johnson, a partner at Tidalwave Solutions, a supply chain consulting firm.

“So even though China is opening up, manufacturing is still going to slow down because the rest of the world’s economy is slowing down. Factories will have workers, but they will have no orders.”

NBS said 56.3% of surveyed manufacturers reported that they were greatly affected by the epidemic in December, up 15.5 percentage points from the previous month, although most also said they expected the situation will gradually improve.

Recovery hopes?

“While (the factory PMI) was lower than expected, it is actually hard for analysts to provide a reasonable forecast given the virus uncertainties over the past month,” said Zhou Hao, chief economist at brokerage house Guotai Junan International.

“In general, we believe that the worst for the Chinese economy is behind us, and a strong economic recovery is ahead.”

The country’s banking and insurance regulator pledged this week to step up financial support to small and private businesses in the catering and tourism sectors that were hit hard by the Covid-19 epidemic, stressing a consumption recovery will be a priority.

The non-manufacturing PMI, which looks at services sector activity, fell to 41.6 from 46.7 in November, the NBS data showed, also marking the lowest reading since February 2020.

The official composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, declined to 42.6 from 47.1.

“The weeks before Chinese New Year are going to remain challenging for the service sector as people won’t want to go out and spend more than necessary for fear of catching an infection,” said Mark Williams, Chief Asia Economist at Capital Economics.

“But the outlook should brighten around the time that people return from the Chinese New Year holiday – infections will have dropped back and a large share of people will have recently had Covid and feel they have a degree of immunity.”

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omicron XBB.1.5 is immune evasive, binds better to cells

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The Covid omicron XBB.1.5 variant is rapidly becoming dominant in the U.S. because it is highly immune evasive and appears more effective at binding to cells than related subvariants, scientists say.

XBB.1.5 now represents about 41% of new cases nationwide in the U.S., nearly doubling in prevalence over the past week, according to the data published Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The subvariant more than doubled as a share of cases every week through Dec. 24. In the past week, it nearly doubled from 21.7% prevalence.

Scientists and public health officials have been closely monitoring the XBB subvariant family for months because the strains have many mutations that could render the Covid-19 vaccines, including the omicron boosters, less effective and cause even more breakthrough infections.

XBB was first identified in India in August. It quickly become dominant there, as well as in Singapore. It has since evolved into a family of subvariants including XBB.1 and XBB.1.5.

Andrew Pekosz, a virologist at Johns Hopkins University, said XBB.1.5 is different from its family members because it has an additional mutation that makes it bind better to cells.

“The virus needs to bind tightly to cells to be more efficient at getting in and that could help the virus be a little bit more efficient at infecting people,” Pekosz said.

Yunlong Richard Cao, a scientist and assistant professor at Peking University, published data on Twitter Tuesday that indicated XBB.1.5 not only evades protective antibodies as effectively as the XBB.1 variant, which was highly immune evasive, but also is better at binding to cells through a key receptor.

Scientists at Columbia University, in a study published earlier this month in the journal Cell, warned that the rise of subvariants such as XBB could “further compromise the efficacy of current COVID-19 vaccines and result in a surge of breakthrough infections as well as re-infections.”

The XBB subvariants are also resistant to Evusheld, an antibody cocktail that many people with weak immune systems rely on for protection against Covid infection because they don’t mount a strong response to the vaccines.

The scientists described the resistance of the XBB subvariants to antibodies from vaccination and infection as “alarming.” The XBB subvariants were even more effective at dodging protection from the omicron boosters than the BQ subvariants, which are also highly immune evasive, the scientists found.

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Dr. David Ho, an author on the Columbia study, agreed with the other scientists that XBB.1.5 probably has a growth advantage because it binds better to cells than its XBB relatives. Ho also said XBB.1.5 is about as immune evasive as XBB and XBB.1, which were two of the subvariants most resistant to protective antibodies from infection and vaccination so far.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, who is leaving his role as White House chief medical advisor, has previously said that the XBB subvariants reduce the protection the boosters provide against infection “multifold.”

“You could expect some protection, but not the optimal protection,” Fauci told reporters during a White House briefing in November.

Fauci said he was encouraged by the case of Singapore, which had a major surge of infections from XBB but did not see hospitalizations rise at the same rate. Pekosz said XBB.1.5, in combination with holiday travel, could cause cases to rise in the U.S. But he said the boosters appear to be preventing severe disease.

“It does look like the vaccine, the bivalent booster is providing continued protection against hospitalization with these variants,” Pekosz said. “It really emphasizes the need to get a booster particularly into vulnerable populations to provide continued protection from severe disease with these new variants.”

Health officials in the U.S. have repeatedly called on the elderly in particular to make sure they are up to date on their vaccines and get treated with the antiviral Paxlovid if they have a breakthrough infection.

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A long-term illness crisis is threatening the UK economy

A queue of ambulances outside the Royal London Hospital emergency department on Nov. 24, 2022, in London. In the U.K., the number of “economically inactive” people — those neither working nor looking for a job — between the ages of 16 and 64 rose by more than 630,000 since 2019.

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LONDON — Along with sky-high inflation and energy costs, a Brexit-related trade tailspin and a recession in progress, the U.K. economy is being hammered by record numbers of workers reporting long-term sickness.

The Office for National Statistics reported that between June and August 2022, around 2.5 million people cited long-term sickness as the main reason for economic inactivity, an increase of around half a million since 2019.

The number of “economically inactive” people — those neither working nor looking for a job — between the ages of 16 and 64 has risen by more than 630,000 since 2019. Unlike other major economies, recent U.K. data shows no sign that these lost workers are returning to the labor market, even as inflation and energy costs exert huge pressure on household finances.

The U.K. avoided mass job losses during the Covid-19 pandemic as the government’s furlough program subsidized businesses to retain workers. But since lockdown measures were lifted, the country has seen a labor market exodus of unique proportions among advanced economies.

In its report last month, the ONS said a range of factors could be behind the recent spike, including National Health Service waiting lists that are at record highs, an aging population and the effects of long Covid.

“Younger people have also seen some of the largest relative increases, and some industries such as wholesale and retail are affected to a greater extent than others,” the ONS said.

Though the effects of the issues mentioned above haven’t been quantified, the report suggested the increase has been driven by “other health problems or disabilities,” “mental illness and nervous disorders” and “problems connected with [the] back or neck.”

Legacy of austerity

Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London, told CNBC the scale of the labor market depletion is likely a combination of long Covid; other pandemic-related health issues such as mental illness; and the current crisis in the NHS.

On top of that, he noted that factors that hurt public health directly — such as increased waiting time for treatment — could have a knock-on effect: people may have to leave the workforce to care for sick relatives.

“It’s worth remembering the U.K. has been here before, arguably at least twice. In the early 1990s, the U.K. saw a sharp recovery, with falling unemployment, after ‘Black Wednesday,’ but it also saw a large, and lasting, rise in the number of people claiming incapacity-related benefits,” Portes said, adding that not working is generally bad for both health and employability.

“The government clearly isn’t doing very much about this. Apart from resolving the crisis in the NHS, the other key policy area is support for sick and disabled people to get back to work, and there’s not nearly enough happening on this — instead the government is harassing people on Universal Credit with penalties and sanctions which we know don’t help much.”

In his recent Autumn Statement, Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt announced that the government will ask over 600,000 people receiving Universal Credit — a means-tested social security payment to low income or unemployed households — to meet with a “work coach” in order to establish plans to increase hours and earnings.

Hunt also announced a review of the issues preventing re-entry into the job market and committed £280 million ($340.3 million) to “crack down on benefit fraud and errors” over the next two years.

Although the pandemic has greatly worsened the health crisis leaving a hole in the U.K. economy, the rise in long-term sickness claims actually began in 2019, and economists see several possible reasons why the country has been uniquely vulnerable.

Portes suggested that the government’s austerity policies — a decade of sweeping public spending cuts implemented after Former Prime Minister David Cameron took office in 2010 and aimed at reining in the national debt — had a significant part to play in leaving the U.K. exposed.

“The U.K. was particularly vulnerable because of austerity — NHS waiting lists were rising sharply, and performance/satisfaction was falling sharply, well before the pandemic,” Portes said.

“And support for those on incapacity and disability benefits was hollowed out in the early 2010s. More broadly, austerity has led to a sharper gradient in health outcomes by income/class.”

Inequality and surging waiting lists

That’s borne out in the national data: The ONS estimates that between 2018 and 2020, males living in the most deprived areas of England on average live 9.7 years fewer than those in the least deprived areas, with the gap at 7.9 years for females.

The ONS noted that both sexes saw “statistically significant increases in the inequality in life expectancy at birth since 2015 to 2017.”

In the aftermath of the pandemic, NHS waiting lists grew at its fastest rate since records began in August 2007, a recent House of Commons report highlighted, with over 7 million patients on the waiting list for consultant-led hospital treatment in England as of September.

However, the report noted that this isn’t a recent phenomenon, and the waiting list has been growing rapidly since 2012.

“Before the pandemic, in December 2019, the waiting list was over 4.5 million – almost two million higher than it had been in December 2012, a 74% increase,” it said.

“In other words, while the rise in waiting lists has been accelerated by the pandemic, it was also taking place for several years before the pandemic.”

Former Bank of England policymaker Michael Saunders, now a senior policy advisor at Oxford Economics, also told CNBC that the U.K. has been particularly badly affected by Covid in terms of severity, and that some of this may have been the result of the country’s higher rates of preexisting health conditions — such as obesity — which may have been exacerbated by Covid.

“The U.K. is a relatively unequal country, so that may be part of the reason why even if we’ve had the same Covid wave as other countries, we might get a bigger effect on public health, because if you like you have a greater tail of people who would be worst affected by it,” he added.

Saunders suggested that any growth strategy from the government should include measures to address these health-care challenges, which are now inextricable from the labor participation rate and the wider economy.

“It’s not just a health issue, it’s an economic issue. It’s important in both ways. I think it’s important enough as a health issue, but it merits extra importance because of the effects on potential output which then feed through to these other economic problems.”

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