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Despite ban, China nuclear-weapons lab has bought U.S. chips for years

SINGAPORE — China’s top nuclear-weapons research institute has bought sophisticated U.S. computer chips at least a dozen times in the past two and half years, circumventing decades-old American export restrictions meant to curb such sales.

A Wall Street Journal review of procurement documents found that the state-run China Academy of Engineering Physics has managed to obtain the semiconductors made by U.S. companies such as Intel Corp.
INTC,
-6.41%
and Nvidia Corp.
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+2.84%
since 2020 despite its placement on a U.S. export blacklist in 1997.

The chips, which are widely used in data centers and personal computers, were acquired from resellers in China. Some were procured as components for computing systems, with many bought by the institute’s laboratory studying computational fluid dynamics, a broad scientific field that includes the modeling of nuclear explosions.

Such purchases defy longstanding restrictions imposed by the U.S. that aim to prevent the use of any U.S. products for atomic-weapons research by foreign powers. The academy, known as CAEP, was one of the first Chinese institutions put on the U.S. blacklist, known as the entity list, because of its nuclear work.

A Journal review of research papers published by CAEP found that at least 34 over the past decade referenced using American semiconductors in the research. They were used in a range of ways, including analyzing data and generating algorithms. Nuclear experts said that in at least seven of them, the research can have applications to maintaining nuclear stockpiles. CAEP didn’t respond to requests for comment.

The findings underline the challenge facing the Biden administration as it seeks to more aggressively counter the use of American technology by China’s military. In October, the U.S. expanded the scope of export regulations to prevent China from obtaining the most advanced American chips and chip-manufacturing tools that power artificial intelligence and supercomputers, which are increasingly important to modern warfare.

An expanded version of this report appears on WSJ.com.

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Central banks must buy bitcoin to hedge against sanctions: Harvard Ph.D. candidate

A research paper published at Harvard University is advocating that central banks should buy bitcoin
BTCUSD,
+2.41%
as a hedge against sanctions by other countries.

The paper, titled “Hedging Sanctions Risk: Cryptocurrency in Central Bank Reserves,” was authored by Ph.D. candidate Matthew Ferranti from Harvard’s economics department, and likens central banks’ gold reserves to potential bitcoin holdings.

Ferranti points out that central banks in countries across the globe should look into holding bitcoin as a hedge against possible financial sanctions. He gives the example of the unprecedented financial sanctions levied against Russia by the U.S. and many western nations following its invasion of Ukraine — billions in Russian assets were frozen after the Ukraine war began.

“Sanctions risk may diminish the appeal of U.S. Treasuries, propel broader diversification in central bank reserves, and bolster the long-run fundamental value of both cryptocurrency and gold,” Ferranti writes.

In the paper, Ferranti says El Salvador is a model for central banks owning bitcoin. The country, headed by bitcoin bull Nayib Bukele, has purchased millions of dollars worth of the crypto and has even made bitcoin an official national currency.

See also: ‘We just bought the dip’: El Salvador expands bitcoin holdings

Since the inception of popular cryptos like bitcoin and ether
ETHUSD,
+3.74%,
part of its appeal has been the lack of involvement from central banks, in favor of the decentralized nature of the digital asset.

In the wake of the recent crypto winter and collapse of popular crypto exchange FTX, as well as financial issues for crypto companies Voyager and Celsius, some crypto bulls have called for increased regulation and transparency for the industry.

The paper comes after FTX struggled with liquidity issues in November, eventually leading to a bankruptcy filing. Sam Bankman-Fried resigned as CEO and later apologized for the collapse of his former company.

See: Why do people invest in crypto? ‘It’s partly fraud and partly delusion,’ says Charlie Munger.

Also see: Tom Brady, Steph Curry and Kevin O’Leary set to lose big from FTX bankruptcy filing

Bitcoin’s price is down over 70% over the past year, and the price for ether is also down over 70% over the same period. The total market cap for all crypto nearly hit $3 trillion during parts of 2021, but is now around $800 billion.

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Opinion: Elon Musk pumps Tesla stock with ridiculous $4 trillion target. Is a dump coming next?

Another Tesla Inc. earnings call, and another fanciful Elon Musk prediction that likely encouraged yet another open file at the Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday.

The chief executive of Tesla Inc.
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+0.84%
told investors Wednesday that he believes the valuation of the electric-car maker will exceed the combined market capitalization of the two most valuable companies in the world: Apple Inc.
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+0.08%
and Saudi Arabian Oil Co.
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+0.42%.

“I am of the opinion that we can far exceed Apple’s current market cap,” Musk said. “In fact, I see a potential path for Tesla to be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined.”

Based on Wednesday’s closing prices, the combined market capitalization of those two companies is about $4.4 trillion U.S. dollars. But at least he added a caveat — “That doesn’t mean it will happen or that it will be easy, in fact it will be very difficult, require a lot of work, very creative new products, expansion and always good luck.”

Full earnings coverage: Elon Musk teases massive Tesla stock buyback as CFO trims forecast for annual deliveries and stock falls

This type of outrageous prediction is not new for Musk. He already predicted that Tesla would be worth as much as Apple, and its market cap now is roughly the same size as Apple’s was then, though his explanation for why Tesla would spike to that level was way off.

The situation Musk is in right now, though, is new. As the soap opera that has erupted from his deal to buy Twitter Inc.
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+0.10%
draws to a close, he is believed to need somewhere between $5 billion and $8 billion to finish off that deal, as our colleagues at Barron’s recently reported, and his only real avenue to that kind of cash is to sell Tesla stock.

Musk was precluded from selling shares before Tesla’s earnings report due to SEC rules, so what better way to try and pump Tesla’s stock before that blackout ended than to make some far-out predictions on the company’s earnings call?

From Barron’s: A Tesla stock sale is coming. We know who, why and when, but not how much.

A $4 trillion-plus price target wasn’t the only eye-opening claim Musk made in Wednesday’s call. He also told investors that he expected Tesla to perform the first stock buyback in its corporate history next year, and a large one at that: $5 billion to $10 billion.

“Even in a downside scenario next year, given next year is very difficult, we still have the ability to do a $5 [billion] to $10 billion buyback. This is obviously pending board review and approval,” he said. “So it’s likely that we will do some meaningful buyback.”

It is very odd to announce a share repurchase plan before it is approved and officially put in place by a board of directors, though sharing the news early is not automatically a violation of securities laws, said Stephen Diamond, an associate professor at Santa Clara University School of Law.

“Best practices would suggest waiting until you have your ducks in a row before making such an announcement, but I doubt it creates any obvious legal problems,” he said.

He added that the Tesla board is likely seeking approval from its auditors and legal counsel for the share repurchase, which would be why it isn’t approved yet.

“There is an accounting test under Delaware law that the company must meet in order to buy back shares,” Diamond said in an email. “Generally, it can only buy back shares if there is a ‘surplus’ available. To assess that would require support from their internal finance team to the board and likely as well outside opinions from their auditors and legal counsel.” 

While early disclosure of buyback plans would not register alarms at the SEC office automatically, these types of pronouncements from Musk specifically will perk up some ears at the regulator’s offices. Musk has already faced recriminations from the agency for earlier statements, and been targeted for failing to live up to the settlement he agreed to in that case. Musk is also reportedly actively being investigated for his behavior as he moved to acquire Twitter, which Twitter seemed to confirm in a legal filing earlier this month.

More: Elon Musk’s legal battle with Twitter may be over, but his war with the SEC continues

On the call, Musk would only say that he is “excited about the Twitter situation,” while admitting that “myself and the other investors are obviously overpaying for it right now.”

Tesla officials did not respond to a request for comment or answer a question about whether Musk does need to sell more Tesla shares to complete the Twitter deal.

The question for Tesla investors, though, is whether they have overpaid for Tesla stock before another round of stock sales from Musk, who has already offloaded billions in shares in the past year, which reportedly resulted in yet another SEC inquiry. On Wednesday, though, shares fell more than 6% in after-hours trading despite the chief executive’s boosterism, which seemed to be overshadowed by a revenue miss and trimmed forecast.

Perhaps investors are finally seeing through Musk’s earnings-call bloviating that boosted the value of Tesla’s shares in the past. But if Musk sells Tesla shares in the coming days after trying to talk up the company’s value, it won’t be the investors who knock on his door, it might be the SEC yet again.

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The stock market typically bottoms before the end of a Fed rate-hike cycle. Here’s how to make that bet pay off.

A lot of money can be made betting on when the Federal Reserve will “pivot” — that is, take its foot at least partially off the rate-hike gas pedal. Yet a lot of money can also be lost, as we saw on August 26 when the Dow Jones Industrial Average
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-0.57%
lost more than 1,000 points after Fed Chair Jerome Powell dashed hopes that the Fed’s pivot had begun in July.

So it’s helpful to review past rate-hike cycles to see how investors fared when trying to anticipate when those cycles came to an end.

To do that, I focused on the six distinct rate-hike cycles since the Fed began specifically targeting the Fed funds rate. The table below reports how many days prior to the end of those cycles that the stock market hit its low. (Specifically, I focused on a six-month window prior to the end of each cycle, and determined when within that window the S&P 500
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hit its low.)

Start of rate-hike cycle End of rate hike cycle Days in advance of cycle’s end that S&P 500 hit its low S&P 500’s gain from low to end of rate hike cycle S&P 500’s gain 3 months after market’s low S&P 500’s gain 6 months after market’s low S&P 500’s gain 12 months after market’s low
30-Mar-83 9-Aug-84 16 +12.0% +13.2% +18.7% +30.3%
4-Jan-87 24-Feb-89 176 +11.1% +5.5% +12.7% +36.0%
3-Feb-94 1-Feb-95 55 +5.6% +9.9% +18.5% +38.3%
29-Jun-99 16-May-00 81 +10.0% +3.6% +13.1% -4.9%
29-Jun-04 29-Jun-06 16 +4.0% +7.3% +15.5% +24.5%
15-Dec-15 20-Dec-18 0 +0.0% +13.4% +19.4% +30.6%
  AVERAGE 57 +7.1% +8.8% +16.3% +25.8%

As you can see, the market hit its low an average of 57 days prior to the end of the Fed’s rate-hike cycle — about two months. Yet notice also that there is quite a range, from no lead time at one extreme to almost the entire six-month window on which I focused. Given that it’s hard to know when the Fed will actually begin to pivot, this wide range illustrates the uncertainty and risk associated with trying to reinvest in stocks in anticipation of a pivot.

Nevertheless, the table also shows that there are hefty gains to be had if you get it even partially right. For example, the S&P 500 gained an average of 7.1% over the period between the market’s pre-pivot low and the actual end of the rate-hike cycle. That’s an impressive return for a two-month period. Furthermore, the average gain over the six months following the pre-pivot low is a strong 16.3%, and over the 12 months following that low it is 25.8%.

How should you play this high-risk/high-reward situation? One way is to dollar-cost average up to whatever is your desired equity exposure. For example, you could divide into five tranches the total amount you want to eventually put back into the stock market, and invest each tranche in equities at the end of the next five calendar quarters. If you followed this approach — and it is just one of many possible ones — you’d be back to your target equity exposure by the beginning of 2024.

Such an approach won’t get you into stocks at the exact pre-pivot low, but hoping for that is a delusion. Yet the approach should get you an average buy-in price that is better than waiting. It should also protect you from days like August 26, when the market punished those who bet that the Fed had already started to pivot.

Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com

More: Learn how to shake up your financial routine at the Best New Ideas in Money Festival on Sept. 21 and Sept. 22 in New York. Join Carrie Schwab, president of the Charles Schwab Foundation.

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South Korea offers North ‘audacious’ economic benefits for denuclearization

SEOUL, South Korea — South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol on Monday offered “audacious” economic assistance to North Korea if it abandons its nuclear weapons program while avoiding harsh criticism of the North days after it threatened “deadly” retaliation over the COVID-19 outbreak it blames on the South.

In a speech celebrating the end of Japan’s colonization of the Korean Peninsula, Yoon also called for better ties with Japan, calling the two countries partners in navigating challenges to freedom and saying their shared values will help them overcome historical grievances linked to Japan’s brutal colonial rule before the end of World War II.

Yoon’s televised speech on the liberation holiday came days after North Korea claimed a widely disputed victory over COVID-19 but also blamed Seoul for the outbreak. The North insists leaflets and other objects flown across the border by activists spread the virus, an unscientific claim Seoul describes as “ridiculous.”

North Korea has a history of dialing up pressure on the South when it doesn’t get what it wants from the United States, and there are concerns that North Korea’s threat portends a provocation, which could possibly be a nuclear or major missile test or even border skirmishes. Some experts say the North may stir up tensions around joint military exercises the United States and South Korea start next week.

Yoon, a conservative who took office in May, said North Korea’s denuclearization would be key for peace in the region and the world. If North Korea halts its nuclear weapons development and genuinely commits to a process of denuclearization, the South will respond with huge economic rewards that would be provided in phases, Yoon said.

Yoon’s proposal wasn’t meaningfully different from previous South Korean offers that have already been rejected by North Korea, which has been accelerating its efforts to expand its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles program leader Kim Jong Un sees as his strongest guarantee of survival.

“We will implement a large-scale program to provide food, providing assistance for establishing infrastructure for the production, transmission and distribution of electrical power, and carry out projects to modernize ports and airports to facilitate trade,” Yoon said.

“We will also help improve North Korea’s agricultural production, provide assistance to modernize its hospitals and medical infrastructure, and carry out initiatives to allow for international investment and financial support,” he added, insisting that such programs would “significantly” improve North Korean lives.

Inter-Korean ties have deteriorated amid a stalemate in larger nuclear negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang, which derailed in early 2019 over disagreements in exchanging a release of crippling U.S.-led sanctions against the North and the North’s disarmament steps.

North Korea has ramped up its testing activity in 2022, launching more than 30 ballistic missiles so far, including its first demonstrations of intercontinental ballistic missiles since 2017. Experts say Kim is intent on exploiting a favorable environment to push forward his weapons program, with the U.N. Security Council divided and effectively paralyzed over Russia’s war on Ukraine.

North Korea’s unusually fast pace in weapons demonstrations also underscore brinkmanship aimed at forcing Washington to accept the idea of North Korea as a nuclear power and negotiating badly economic benefits and security concessions from a position of strength, experts say. The U.S. and South Korean governments have also said the North is gearing up to conduct its first nuclear test since September 2017, when it claimed to have detonated a nuclear warhead designed for its ICBMs.

In face of growing North Korean threats, Yoon has vowed to bolster South Korea’s defense in conjunction with its alliance with the United States and also strengthen security ties with Japan, which is also alarmed by the North’s nuclear and ballistic weapons program.

South Korea’s relations with Japan declined to post-war lows over the past several years as the countries allowed their grievances over history to extend to other areas including trade and military cooperation.

While Yoon has called for future-oriented cooperation with Japan, history may continue to pose an obstacle to relations. The countries have struggled to negotiate a solution after Japanese companies rejected South Korean court rulings in recent years to compensate South Koreans who were subject to wartime industrial slavery, an issue that could cause further diplomatic rupture if it results in the forced sales of the companies’ local assets.

“In the past, we had to unshackle ourselves from Imperial Japan’s political control and defend our freedom. Today, Japan is our partner as we face common threats that challenge the freedom of global citizens,” Yoon said. “When South Korea and Japan move toward a common future and when the mission of our times align, based on our shared universal values, it will also help us solve the historical problems that exist between our two countries.”

While Washington has said it would push for additional sanctions if North Korea conducts another nuclear test, the prospects for meaningful punitive measures are unclear. China and Russia recently vetoed U.S.-sponsored resolutions at the U.N. Security Council that would have increased sanctions on the North over its ballistic missile testing this year.

North Korea’s state media said Monday that Kim exchanged messages with Russian President Vladimir Putin and celebrated their strengthening ties.

Kim said the countries’ relations were forged by the Soviet contributions in Japan’s World War II defeat and that they were strengthening their “strategic and tactical cooperation and support and solidarity” in the face of enemies’ military threats. Putin said closer ties between the countries would help bring stability to the region, the North’s official Korean Central News Agency said.

North Korea has repeatedly blamed the United States for the crisis in Ukraine, claiming the West’s “hegemonic policy” justified Russia’s offensive in Ukraine to protect itself.

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Opinion: Google and Microsoft earnings show the bar has been lowered for Big Tech

Alphabet Inc. and Microsoft Corp. both reported results that missed Wall Street’s expectations Tuesday, but not only did investors not melt down, both actually saw their stocks rise in after-hours trading.

Amid troubling economic signs, tech stocks have been battered so far this year, and fears about a slowdown among Big Tech names had Wall Street on edge heading into this week. But the reactions to earnings misses Tuesday afternoon show that the fears and declines so far this year have resulted in a lowered bar for even the biggest of the Big Tech names.

Microsoft
MSFT,
-2.68%
missed on both revenue and profit expectations, and forecast that its cloud business, Azure, will grow about 43% in the September quarter, amid fears of slowing cloud growth. While the four-percentage-point deceleration from the previous quarter’s growth rate may have led to sharp declines in the past, Microsoft stock jumped as soon as the forecast was provided.

Google parent Alphabet
GOOGL,
-2.32%

GOOG,
-2.56%
reported an earnings decline for a second quarter in a row, and told analysts on its conference call that a slowdown by ad buyers impacted its second quarter. Yet Alphabet shares were up nearly 5% in after-hours trading.

“In context of the weakening macro backdrop, Alphabet’s Q2 results were decent, with close to in-line revenues across all key business segments,” wrote Colin Sebastian, an analyst with Baird Equity Research, in a note to clients, summing up the general view on Wall Street that things were not yet as bad as feared.

Much like the relief rally seen by Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
-4.50%
shares three months ago, however, this is a case of numbers that, while good enough to avoid tanking their stocks, still shouldn’t actually be seen as “good.” Both companies warned about the macroeconomy, and clearly each company has businesses that are slowing sharply right now.

In Alphabet’s case, revenue at YouTube, a recent star, grew a scant 3% in the second quarter, compared with 14.3% growth in the first quarter, due to overall advertiser pullbacks in spending and more competition from TikTok. Microsoft saw its PC business soften, as the big PC boom of the pandemic is over. The advertising slowdown is also affecting its LinkedIn business, while the Xbox business is slowing rapidly as the pandemic-fueled surge in videogames wears off.

But those stocks are not facing the wrath reserved for some smaller competitors. Last week, social-media company Snap Inc.
SNAP,
-3.22%
raised more fears among investors about internet ad spending, and its stock plunged as the overall economy battles with inflation, changing consumer patterns and higher interest rates.

Microsoft and Google were able to avoid the same fate, though it’s possible that it will just take longer for the slowdown to actually affect companies so large, and with dominant positions in important industries. But make no mistake, there is a slowdown, and it is affecting Big Tech, just maybe not to the degree that it will result in big chunks taken out of their gargantuan market caps — yet.

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Woman denied a colonoscopy by her doctor died of colon cancer at 39, friend says

‘A friend of mine died of colon cancer this week. She was 39. Two years ago, after marrying her incredible wife, she asked her doc for a colonoscopy. Her father had died young of colon cancer, putting my friend at higher risk, and it was on her mind. She wanted a screening. She was told no.

A Twitter
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thread about a woman who recently died at 39 from colorectal cancer has spotlighted awareness about the proper age to begin screening for the often-fatal disease. It has also raised questions about how seriously the medical system takes health concerns among women.

Caitlin Gibson, a reporter at the Washington Post, shared the story Monday about the woman, a friend of hers, on the social-media platform. The thread has since received thousands of retweets.

Gibson said her friend thought she was at higher risk for colorectal cancer because her father had died of the disease. Gibson noted that her friend, who goes unnamed, sought to get a colonoscopy two years ago, but her “insurance wouldn’t pay for it.”

In addition, Gibson said when her friend started experiencing abdominal pain, doctors told her it was likely gallbladder-related. By the time her friend was finally diagnosed with colorectal cancer, the disease had already progressed to stage four.

“She was not surprised. She was enraged,” Gibson wrote. “And for everyone who loves her, the fury adds an entirely new dimension to the grief. This should have been preventable, if she’d been given access to the early screenings she knew she needed because of her hereditary risk.”

Gibson didn’t immediately respond to a MarketWatch request for comment.

‘This should have been preventable, if she’d been given access to the early screenings she knew she needed because of her hereditary risk.’

Colorectal cancer remains a leading cause of death in the U.S. The American Cancer Society estimated that 149,500 new cases would be diagnosed in 2021, resulting in 52,980 deaths. That makes the disease the second-most fatal form of cancer in the U.S.

And the rates of colorectal cancer among those under age 50 are on the rise, according to the American Cancer Society. The issue became particularly discussed when beloved “Black Panther” star Chadwick Boseman died of the disease at age 43.

Last year, a prominent medical panel advised that colorectal cancer screenings should begin at age 45 instead of the previous recommendation of 50.

On top of the issue of colorectal cancer affecting younger people, Gibson’s thread also pointed to the challenges that many people face when dealing with the medical system.

“This system is so deeply broken,” Gibson wrote. “Especially for women, whose intuition and pain is not taken seriously. Especially for people without the right kind of access or money or privilege.”

Such issues have been raised by many others. For example, a study in the journal “Academic Emergency Medicine” found that women seeking help for severe stomach pain had to wait in the emergency room considerably longer than men with the same condition.

And those who have responded to Gibson’s thread have shared stories of being misdiagnosed or ignored by doctors, only to face severe consequences, such as eventually finding out they had skin, breast or colon cancer.

Gibson’s thread included a link to a poem, “Antidotes to Fear of Death,” by Rebecca Elson. As its title implies, the poem offers a vision of hope, comfort and bravery in the face of death.

“A really incredible poem,” Gibson wrote.

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‘It’s unlikely home prices will plummet.’ 5 pros predict home prices in 2022

Will home prices fall?


Getty Images

Gone are the uber-low mortgage rates of 2021. Indeed, average 30-year-fixed mortgage rates have risen from roughly 3.5% to about 5.6% this year, and pros say they expect them to climb further (see the lowest mortgage interest rates you can get now here). One might think that these rising rates would help temper home price growth, as families become less likely to be able to afford a mortgage, but is that true? And what else is happening with home prices? We asked five pros to weigh in.

Prediction 1: Inventory shortages mean home prices may keep rising

The supply of homes available for sale is so low that even a big dent in demand as a result of higher rates will not transform this into a buyer’s market, pros say.  “Home prices will keep going up because there aren’t enough houses available to meet demand, but the combination of rising home prices and elevated mortgage rates means fewer people will be able to afford to buy,” says Holden Lewis, home and mortgage expert at Nerdwallet, who predicts that mortgage rates will keep rising but at a slower pace than they did over the last few months (see the lowest mortgage interest rates you can get now here). This means demand will likely drop off in the fall and winter, though home prices will continue to rise, albeit more slowly, Lewis says.

Prediction 2: Cash buyers are still playing a big role in this housing market — and that means rates don’t have as big an impact as you might think

“Nearly 30% of transactions are taking place in cash, so there’s a sizable contingent of buyers that are not interest-rate sensitive,” says Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. That means that rising rates won’t have as big of an impact on this housing market as one might think.

Prediction 3: Demand will remain high(ish), and so will home prices 

Rapidly rising mortgage rates have had a negative impact on demand for mortgages since the start of the year, but there’s no indication that demand has plummeted, says Jacob Channel, LendingTree’s senior economic analyst. As of April, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that total mortgage originations will total $2.58 trillion in 2022, a 35.5% decrease from 2021. While that is a large drop, it’s important to note that if originations were to total $2.58 trillion they’d still be higher than in 2019. Meanwhile, data from the Census Bureau and HUD indicates that the median home price for new residential homes in March 2022 was higher than it was in March 2021, despite rising rates. “This suggests that people are still willing to pay top dollar for houses even in a rising rate environment,” says Lewis.

The cost of financing the typical home listed for sale has increased significantly in the last year, which has caused many shoppers to rethink budgets and likely knocked some households out of the home purchase market for now, says Realtor.com  economist Danielle Hale. But at the same time, a large number of young households still desire home ownership and feel urgency to find a home and lock in a rate before mortgage rates and home prices climb again (see the lowest mortgage interest rates you can get now here). “Combine these adjustments to shifting financial conditions with the still-large share of households at key home buying ages and the decades-long under-building in the housing market that has left the market undersupplied, and it’s a recipe for prices to remain high,” says Hale.

At the end of the day, home-buying demand has thus far remained resilient in the face of rapidly rising prices and recent interest rate gains, both of which limit what home buyers can afford. “There will be a point when costs become too high for too many and price growth begins to slow, but we’re a long way from anything resembling a normal market by pre-pandemic standards. There are far fewer homes for sale than what the market would normally expect this time of year and homes continue to sell remarkably quickly. Zillow economists expect home values to grow another 14.9% over the next year,” says Zillow senior economist Matthew Speakman.

See the lowest mortgage interest rates you can get now here.

Prediction 4: It would take a big event to send home prices plummeting

Ultimately, for rising rates to torpedo home prices, we’d have to see considerably less demand and considerably more housing supply than what we’re currently seeing, pros say. “Even if price growth does cool this year, all current data indicates that it’s highly unlikely that home prices will plummet. Barring some sort of large-scale mortgage defaulting that triggers massive home selloffs like what we saw prior to the 2008 financial collapse, or mortgage rates suddenly climbing to the double-digit levels they were at in the early 1980s, it seems like high home prices are here to stay,” says Lewis.

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Here is what AT&T is giving investors in WarnerMedia spinoff, and how it will work

AT&T Inc. detailed its plans for the spinoff of WarnerMedia on Friday, with investors eventually expected to receive a share of the new streaming-media entity for every four AT&T shares they own.

AT&T
T,
+2.19%
is in the process of spinning off its WarnerMedia business in a combination with Discovery Inc.
DISCA,
+0.85%,
which executives have said would allow AT&T to refocus attention on core telecommunications efforts. The company expects the deal to close in April, and executives declared plans for a stock dividend to its investors for April 5 at the close of business.

AT&T explained in a Friday release that those who own AT&T shares as of the end of trading April 5 will be able to receive shares of WarnerMedia SpinCo representing 100% of AT&T’s interest in the business. After the transaction closes, expected sometime in April, investors will receive an estimated 0.24 shares of the newly created WarnerBros. Discovery for each share of AT&T they own.

See also: AT&T issues new guidance as WarnerMedia spin draws nearer

The shares created represent about 71% of WarnerBros. Discovery, which will trade under the ticker symbol “WBD” after the spinoff completes. Shareholders “do not need to take any action” as the SpinCo shares will be automatically exchanged on the date the transaction closes, the company reported.

The potential period between the stock dividend and the closing of the deal could create confusion for anyone who wants to buy or sell the stock. The company noted that between April 4, the trading day before the record date for its spinoff distribution, and the closing of the combination with Discovery, there will be two markets for AT&T’s common stock on the New York Stock Exchange.

Those who choose to sell a share of AT&T’s common stock through the “regular way” market will sell both the AT&T share and the right to receive WarnerBros. Discovery shares through the transaction. Those who participate in the “ex-distribution” market will be selling AT&T’s stock while keeping the right to receive WarnerBros. Discovery shares.

Additionally, in the two-way trading window, those who wish to keep AT&T shares while selling the right to receive WarnerBros. Discovery can use a temporary when-issued option that will be available on the Nasdaq.

While AT&T shareholders will still own the same number of AT&T shares after the transaction close that they did just before the transaction close, the company’s stock price is expected to adjust after the deal is complete, reflecting the spinoff.

AT&T’s board of directors also declared a second-quarter dividend of 27.75 cents a share, the first quarterly dividend under a reduced annual payout that executives outlined last month. The dividend will be payable on May 2 for shareholders of record as of April 14.

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