Tag Archives: Goldmans

Goldman’s David Kostin says a tech disconnect is the ‘single greatest mispricing’ in U.S. stocks

David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, speaks during an interview with CNBC on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, July 11, 2018.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

LONDON — A substantial disconnect in the U.S. tech sector is top of mind for investors in 2022, according to Goldman Sachs’ Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Kostin.

U.S. tech sold off sharply in the first week of the year, taking the Nasdaq 100 into correction territory briefly on Monday before rallying to snap a four-day losing streak.

Investor skittishness has been driven largely by the prospect of a higher interest rate environment, with the Federal Reserve striking a more hawkish tone over the past month. Markets are now preparing for potential interest rate hikes, along with a tightening of the central bank’s balance sheet.

As a result, analysts broadly expect 2022 to be a tough year for high growth tech names that have benefitted from ultra-loose monetary policy necessitated by the Covid-19 pandemic as that stimulus unwinds.

“The single greatest mispricing in the U.S. equity market is between companies that have high expected revenue growth but low or negative margins, and on the other hand high growth companies with positive or very significantly positive margins. That gap has adjusted dramatically in the last year,” Kostin told CNBC Monday ahead of the Wall Street giant’s Global Strategy conference.

Kostin highlighted that high growth, low profit-margin stocks were trading at 16 times enterprise value-to-sales in February 2021. The enterprise value-to-sales ratio helps investors to value a company, taking into account its sales, equity and debt.

These stocks are now trading at around seven times enterprise value-to-sales, Kostin said.

“Much of that took place in the last month or so, and largely that’s because as rates increase, the valuation, or the value of that future cash flows, are worth somewhat less in a higher rate environment,” Kostin said.

“That’s a big issue, and so the gap between those two, I’d say, is the single biggest topic of conversation with clients. You’ve had a huge derating of the fast expected revenue growth companies that have low margins, and the argument is probably that there is more to go in that readjustment.”

The gap between these two types of stocks remains fairly close, he argued, and will likely widen. Kostin said this could take the form of the companies with both fast growth and high profit margins increasing in valuation, or those with low or negative margins pulling back further.

“That comes down to the relationship between rates and equities broadly speaking, the speed and the magnitude of the change and also very specifically about the idea of profit margins being such a key topic of fund managers, and that is so important in the rate change environment we’re experiencing right now,” Kostin said.

Read original article here

Suspicious bets made before Goldman’s $2.2 billion GreenSky acquisition

Sam Edwards | Getty Images

The day before Goldman Sachs announced its $2.2 billion purchase of fintech lender GreenSky, someone placed options trades that immediately soared in value, moves that market participants say indicates advance knowledge of the deal.

On Sept. 14, the trader bought 8,000 options that would only pay off if the price of GreenSky rose above $10, according to the market participants. The options were out of the money — meaning that GreenSky was trading well below the strike price — and cost just a nickel per share.

After news of the deal hit, the value of the contracts, each allowing for the purchase of 100 shares of GreenSky, skyrocketed. The trader made an astounding 3,900% gain in a single day, the market sources say. That means a $40,000 bet would have turned into about $1.6 million.

Acquisitions are complicated transactions involving teams of bankers, lawyers and other specialists with access to market-moving information. With that many sets of eyes on a deal, information often leaks. As many as one-quarter of all public company deals result in some form of insider trading, often involving out-of-the-money calls in the options market, according to a 2014 study by professors at the Stern School of Business at New York University and McGill University.

Although there have been insider-trading cases ensnaring high-profile perpetrators, instances in which people used material, nonpublic information in the markets, most times the activity goes unpunished, according to the 2014 study.

Goldman Sachs declined to comment for this article. A GreenSky representative didn’t respond to voice messages. The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority didn’t immediately return calls seeking comment.

Goldman was its own financial advisor and used Sullivan & Cromwell as legal counsel. JPMorgan Chase and FT Partners advised GreenSky, which also used law firms Cravath, Swaine & Moore and Troutman Pepper Hamilton Sanders.

GreenSky’s board also retained its own bankers and lawyers at Piper Sandler and Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati. The banks and law firms declined to comment or didn’t immediately respond to messages.

‘Nobody’s that lucky’

The Sept. 14 trades weren’t the only unusually prescient bets made ahead of the Goldman deal.

Options activity for GreenSky is typically muted, with fewer than 1,000 calls making up the average daily volume. Wagers in soon-to-be-profitable $10 call options surged over the last two weeks, however, indicating that it’s possible multiple traders had knowledge of the deal.

Volumes went from 153 calls on Sept. 7 to 7,175 calls by Sept. 9, according to Jon Najarian, a veteran trader and CNBC contributor. By Sept. 13, two days before the announcement, call volumes hit 12,755. The contracts were mostly sold for a profit on Sept. 15, he said.

“When we see unusual activity like that, we tend to think that somebody had tomorrow’s newspaper today,” Najarian said. “Nobody’s that lucky. Whoever bought those calls will probably face regulators.”

The trades were so brazen — with some of the calls set to expire in just days — that whoever made them must be inexperienced, according to a former Wall Street executive with more than four decades of markets knowledge. There are ways to structure the bets that would make them less obvious to regulators, he said.

“This looks like a 22-year-old kid who didn’t know what they were doing,” he said. “But it’s a no-brainer, they had inside information.”

Financial columnist Matt Levine, a former Goldman banker who has written extensively about insider trading, has a few guidelines when it comes to the prohibited activity. His first rule (“Don’t do it”) is followed by a second:

“If you have inside information about an upcoming merger, don’t buy short-dated out-of-the-money call options on the target,” Levine wrote in a 2014 column. “The SEC will get you!”

— CNBC’s Bob Pisani contributed to this report.

Become a smarter investor with CNBC Pro
Get stock picks, analyst calls, exclusive interviews and access to CNBC TV. 
Sign up to start a free trial today.

Read original article here

Wall Street Ponders Goldman’s Block-Trade Spree

(Bloomberg) — As Wall Street speculated on the identity of the mysterious seller behind the massive $10.5 billion in block trades executed on Friday by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., investors also pondered just how unprecedented the selloff was — and whether there’s more to come.

The sales lit up trader chat rooms from New York to Hong Kong and were part of an extraordinary spree that erased $35 billion from the values of bellwether stocks ranging from Chinese technology giants to U.S. media conglomerates.

“I’ve never seen something of this magnitude in my 25-year career,” said Michel Keusch, portfolio manager at Bellevue Asset Management AG in Switzerland.

Goldman sold $6.6 billion worth of shares of Baidu Inc., Tencent Music Entertainment Group and Vipshop Holdings Ltd. before the market opened in the U.S., according to an email to clients seen by Bloomberg News. That move was followed by the sale of $3.9 billion of shares in ViacomCBS Inc., Discovery Inc., Farfetch Ltd., iQiyi Inc. and GSX Techedu Inc., the email said.

Block trades — the sale of a large chunk of stock at a price sometimes negotiated outside of the market — are common, but the size of these trades and the multiple blocks hitting the market during the normal trading hours aren’t.

“This was highly unusual,” said Oliver Pursche, a senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, which manages $12 billion in assets. “The question now is: Are they done? Is this over? Or come Monday and Tuesday, are markets going to be hit by another wave of block trades?”

Read More: Goldman Sold $10.5 Billion of Stocks in Block-Trade Spree

The trades triggered price swings for every stock involved in the high-volume transactions, rattling traders and prompting talk that a hedge fund or family office was in trouble and being forced to sell.

The situation is worrisome “because we don’t have all the answers on whether this was the liquidation of just one fund or more than a fund, or whether it was a fund liquidation to begin with and the reason behind it,” Pursche said.

“It can be difficult for a manager from a positioning standpoint. Another wave of block trades may force fund managers to reassess their commitment to some stocks,” he said.

‘Unprecedented’

Frederik Hildner, a portfolio manager at Salm-Salm & Partner GmbH in Wallhausen, Germany, called the move “unprecedented.” He added, “The question is why did these block trades occur? Does one firm know something others don’t or were they somehow forced to cut risk?

More of the unregistered stock offerings were said to be managed by Morgan Stanley, according to people familiar with the matter, on behalf of one or more undisclosed shareholders. Some of the trades exceeded $1 billion in individual companies, calculations based on Bloomberg data show.

Read More: Block-Trade Bevy Wipes $35 Billion Off Stock Values in a Day

Wall Street is now trying to work out who the seller is.

Several major investment banks with ties to hedge fund Archegos Capital Management LLC liquidated holdings, contributing to the slump in share prices of ViacomCBS and Discovery, IPO Edge reported, citing people it didn’t identify. CNBC reported forced sales by Archegos were probably related to margin calls on heavily leveraged positions. Archegos is controlled by former Julian Robertson protege and Tiger Management analyst Bill Hwang.

Maeve DuVally, a Goldman Sachs spokeswoman, declined to comment. A spokesperson for Morgan Stanley declined to comment. A person reached at Archegos’s New York office on Friday declined to comment. An email sent to Hwang seeking comment wasn’t returned.

For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com

Subscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

Read original article here