- Jamie Dimon says Americans should stop thinking of China as ‘a 10-foot giant’—and warns geopolitical tensions are the biggest threat to the world economy Fortune
- Jamie Dimon says Americans are on an economic ‘sugar high’—and he’s urging clients to batten down the hatches and prepare for rates to hit 7% Yahoo Finance
- JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Says This Is the Number One Risk Threatening Global Economy – And It’s Not Inflation The Daily Hodl
- JPMorgan Hot On India | CEO Jamie Dimon Exclusive On India, China, Geopolitics & AI | CNBC TV18 CNBC-TV18
- Jamie Dimon says India optimism is ‘completely justified’ CNBC
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Tag Archives: geopolitical
‘We need to build a new geopolitical order’: Restored relations at South America Summit | DW News – DW News
- ‘We need to build a new geopolitical order’: Restored relations at South America Summit | DW News DW News
- Lula cosies up to Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s autocrat The Economist
- New era opening between Brazil & Venezuela as Lula calls out US sanctions on Venezuela | WION WION
- Brazil’s Lula wants to mediate in Venezuela, Ukraine. But he’s siding with the oppressors | Opinion Miami Herald
- Summit of South American leaders faces divisions on Venezuela: ‘The human rights situation is not a narrative construction’ EL PAÍS USA
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Warren Buffett says the unusually quick sale of Berkshire Hathaway’s TSMC stake was driven by geopolitical tensions – Yahoo Finance
- Warren Buffett says the unusually quick sale of Berkshire Hathaway’s TSMC stake was driven by geopolitical tensions Yahoo Finance
- Buffett’s Japanese stock purchases could indicate a bigger plan, says Mobius Capital’s Mark Mobius CNBC Television
- Berkshire Set to Pay More for Yen Debt Amid BOJ Tightening Bets Bloomberg
- Warren Buffett has his eyes on this one country when it comes to his future investments—and he already owns 6% of its top 5 companies Yahoo Finance
- Cramer’s First Take: Warren Buffett doesn’t invest like us CNBC Television
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Wall Street rises on inflation data but geopolitical tensions cut gains
Nov 15 (Reuters) – The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were higher on Tuesday, but gains were cut after a report that Russian missiles crossed into Poland and killed two people, somewhat undermining hopes that cooling inflation would lead to a pullback in rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Two people were killed in an explosion in Przewodow, a village in eastern Poland near the border with Ukraine, firefighters told Reuters.
The Associated Press cited a senior U.S. intelligence official as saying the blast was due to Russian missiles crossing into Poland. However, the Pentagon said on Tuesday it could not confirm reports that Russian missiles had crossed into Poland.
Russia has been pounding cities across Ukraine with missiles, in attacks that Kyiv said were the heaviest wave of missile strikes in nearly nine months of war, while Poland’s prime minister called an urgent meeting of a government committee for national security and defense affairs.
“The decline was triggered by reports of a Russian missile landing in Poland,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. “This could develop into something far worse, but right now markets are nervous, not panicked.”
Stocks pulled back around mid-day, after jumping higher earlier in the session after data showed U.S. producer prices increased less than expected.
“You still are seeing volatile trading across markets,” said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.
“We are not out of the woods yet as it relates to the Russia-Ukraine war. We did get incrementally better data on inflation but there are also still growth concerns.”
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 9.73 points, or 0.03%, to 33,546.43, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 29.4 points, or 0.74%, to 3,986.65 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 156.76 points, or 1.4%, to 11,352.98.
Tuesday’s inflation report showed producer prices rising 8% in the 12 months through October against an estimated 8.3% rise.
Tuesday’s equity gains built on a rally kicked off late last week by a cooler-than-expected report on consumer prices.
Shares of Walmart Inc (WMT.N) jumped 7% after the top U.S. retailer lifted its annual sales and profit forecasts, benefiting from a steady demand for groceries despite higher prices.
Shares of other retailers, including Target Corp (TGT.N) and Costco (COST.O), also rose following Walmart’s report.
Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf and Carolina Mandl in New York, Shubham Batra, Sruthi Shankar, Amruta Khandekar and Ankika Biswas; Additional reporting by Devik Jain;
Editing by Shounak Dasgupta and Arun Koyyur
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Ukraine to dominate UN General Assembly amid geopolitical divide | United Nations News
Climate change, Iran sanctions, and worsening global poverty will also feature at the annual meeting of world leaders in New York this week.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a global food crisis aggravated by the war will be the focus of world leaders when they convene at the United Nations in New York this week, a gathering that is unlikely to yield any progress towards ending the conflict.
“It would be naive to think that we are close to the possibility of a peace deal,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Saturday in advance of the high-level meeting of the 193 member states, which starts on Tuesday.
“The chances of a peace deal are minimal at the present moment.”
Geopolitical divides, hardened by the seven-month-old war, are likely to be on full display as the United States and Western allies compete with Russia for diplomatic influence.
To the world’s young people I say:
You are the strongest voices calling for change & for world leaders to wage peace instead of war.
As global leaders come to the #UNGA, I pledge to support young people to push them to work together for a more peaceful & tolerant world. pic.twitter.com/TvXTsFXfUm
— António Guterres (@antonioguterres) September 16, 2022
Moreover, the US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said there are no plans to meet Russian diplomats.
“They have not indicated that they have an interest in diplomacy. What they are interested in is continuing to raise this unprovoked war on Ukraine,” said Thomas-Greenfield.
She added while the war in Ukraine will be discussed, “we cannot ignore the rest of the world”.
Guterres said the geopolitical rifts were “the widest they have been since at least the Cold War” and “paralyzing the global response to the dramatic challenges we face” highlighting conflicts, climate, poverty, hunger, and inequality.
‘Huge tension’
Russia and Ukraine are major grain and fertiliser exporters and the UN has blamed the war for the worsening food crisis that was already fuelled by climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic.
The United States will co-host a food security summit with the European Union and the African Union on the sidelines of the UN gathering, along with a COVID-19 global action plan meeting and a replenishment conference for the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria.
“Underlying a lot of these meetings will be a huge amount of tension between Western countries and representatives of the Global South in particular,” said Richard Gowan, UN director at the International Crisis Group.
“There’s still a lot of ill feeling over issues such as the COVID vaccine rollout, climate financing … and now food prices. All these issues are driving major wedges amongst UN member states,” Gowan said.
Russia has been trying to chip away at its international isolation after nearly three-quarters of the UNGA voted to reprimand Moscow and demand it withdraw its troops within a week of its February 24 invasion of neighbouring Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, his US counterpart Antony Blinken, and French President Emmanuel Macron all visited African states in the past several months, vying for influence. Africa has been hard hit with a famine expected to be declared in Somalia in the coming months.
Macron intends to use his two-day visit to New York to lobby countries that have remained neutral in the war to try and bring them onside with the West, French officials said, with a focus on India, Gulf countries, Africa and some Latin American states.
In-person attendance
For the past two years, leaders were allowed to submit video statements because of pandemic restrictions, but this year they have to travel to New York City to speak in the UNGA chamber. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping are sending their foreign ministers.
However, the UNGA agreed to allow Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to send a pre-recorded video statement. The decision was adopted with 101 votes in favour, seven against, and 19 abstentions. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is expected to attend.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is also travelling to New York. While it is unlikely Tehran and Washington will overcome an impasse to salvage a 2015 nuclear pact soon, Iran will use the gathering to keep the diplomatic ball rolling by repeating its willingness to reach a sustainable deal.
Biden admin creates Arctic region ambassador position to counter climate change, geopolitical threats
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The Biden administration has announced plans to establish a new ambassador-at-large position to represent the Arctic region amid growing geopolitical tensions with two other large players in the area, China and Russia.
“To further American interests and cooperation with Allies and partners in the Arctic, and after extensive consultations with Members of Congress, local and federal government officials, and external stakeholders, the President plans to elevate the Arctic Coordinator position by appointing an Ambassador-at-Large for the Arctic Region, subject to the advice and consent of the Senate,” the State Department wrote in a press release on Friday.
It explained that a “peaceful” and “prosperous” Arctic region is of “critical strategic importance” to the United States as well as a “priority” for Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
The State Department said that “combating climate change” was also a contributing factor to establishing the new position.
DIVERS RECOVERING FORD F-150 THAT SANK IN ARCTIC WATERS OFF CANADA
WASHINGTON, DC – JULY 28: U.S. President Joe Biden gestures as he delivers remarks on the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022
(Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
The administration wrote that the duty of the new ambassador will be to “advance” U.S. policy in the region while engaging with counterparts in Arctic and non-Arctic nations as well as indigenous groups.
“We look forward to continuing our strong partnership with the Congress to swiftly confirm the Ambassador-at-Large, once a nomination is sent to the Senate,” the press release added.
The new position comes at a time when Russia is aggressively staking claims of new sea lanes that have opened in the Arctic due to receding ice while China has billed itself as a “near-Arctic state” as it expands its control in the region, New York Post reported.
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Aircraft assigned to the 354th Fighter Wing and 168th Wing park in formation on Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska, Dec. 18, 2020.
(U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Keith Holcomb)
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Fox News Digital.
The rejection of China’s deal shows the Pacific will not be used as a geopolitical pawn | Henry Ivarature
Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi is nearing the end of a marathon tour of eight Pacific states. By Saturday, he will have visited Solomon Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Samoa, Tonga, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea, and Timor-Leste.
While Wang will come away with multiple bilateral economic and development agreements, he will not return to China with the big prize – a comprehensive security treaty, which would have seen a reconfiguration of the political landscape in the Pacific, which 10 Pacific states declined to sign at a virtual meeting on Monday.
Pacific leaders deliberated the Chinese proposal in the Pacific consensus decision-making way; carefully and sensitively weighing their decision, and – much to the relief of traditional partners – declined the proposal.
Clearly, China underestimated the collective response of the Pacific to an agreement that sought to secure their signatures lock, stock and barrel.
Some observers have attributed this to Australia’s new foreign minister Penny Wong’s intervention in Fiji on the tail of Wang’s stop-over.
The Chinese have said the blame lies with “a few people in these countries, under the pressure and coercion of the US and former colonizer”, which many have interpreted as aimed at the president of the Federated States of Micronesia who warned other Pacific leaders of the potential erosion of sovereignty and regional instability if they signed the deal.
But what the rejection of the deal by Pacific leaders really showed was an unequivocal display of not wanting to be used as pawns in a geopolitical contest, and a strong message to other actors to treat them with respect and work on the region’s key security threat: climate change.
Fiji’s prime minister Frank Bainimarama has been very blunt about this point, tweeting his thanks to both Wang and Penny Wong after her visit last week, while in the same breath pointedly urging China and Australia to act more decisively on the climate crisis.
“Geopolitical point-scoring means less than little to anyone whose community is slipping beneath the rising seas,” he said.
China, obviously, has not given up. And the region should expect a second diplomatic wave from Beijing.
China’s unprecedented economic growth has enabled a dictatorial state to extend its global influence across the world, and the Pacific is an integral part of its expansionist agenda. Pacific island countries’ economic exclusion zones (EEZ) account for roughly 28% of the world’s EEZs, meaning they have rights over a huge amount of the world’s marine resources, which we know clearly from the proposed regional deal China is very interested in.
Attempting to force a regional consensus the China-way, also ignored the role of the Pacific’s regional political body, the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF).
Things are currently tense within the forum. Last year, Micronesian members threatened to leave the region’s key diplomatic body, and China’s attempt to get 10 of the Pacific countries onboard with this deal – leaving out the Pacific countries that recognise Taiwan, mostly Micronesian countries – could have further widened the regional rift.
Samoa’s prime minister has said that China’s regional agreement ought to have been tabled at PIF and not at a sub-meeting, but one understands why China sought to circumvent this process: unlike Australia and New Zealand, China is not a PIF member, and if the deal was brought before all PIF countries, including those that diplomatically recognise Taiwan, the deal was even less likely to pass.
But it should not come as a surprise if we see China attempt to bring up this deal, or one like it, at the upcoming PIF meeting next month.
Australia should prepare for the next Chinese diplomatic wave in the Pacific, and work on building stronger, meaningful, and respectful relations with the Pacific.
Australia needs a more considered approach to the Pacific. It should let the dust created by Wang’s visit settle, and then build on Penny Wong’s visit by identifying opportunities for relationship-building in consultations with the Pacific. Pacific Islanders can tell their Australian and New Zealand friends what they need.
Australia must really learn to listen and listen well. Australia does not need to throw baskets of money into the Blue Pacific. I think for Pacific Islanders, it is relationships that matter and Australia needs to look to areas where its relations with the Pacific can grow and flourish. Australia should recognise China’s intensified engagement as an opportunity to rebuild its relations with Pacific, and a lesson not take the Pacific for granted.
Mortgage rates fall amid geopolitical uncertainty. How the Russia-Ukraine crisis could impact home buyers — and interest rates
Home buyers are seeing temporary relief from rising interest rates as markets react to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But in the longer term, inflation remains a serious concern.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.89% for the week ending Feb. 24, down three basis points from the previous week, Freddie Mac
FMCC,
+1.59%
reported Thursday. The slight decline marks a retreat from the highest benchmark mortgage rates in years.
And there’s a chance rates will move even higher. As the U.S. and other countries move to impose sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, gas prices are likely to surge due to Russia’s position as a major producer of oil and natural gas.
“An extended war in Eastern Europe could lead to higher global energy prices and higher U.S. inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy aggressively, and higher interest rates could become a larger headwind for the U.S. economy,” said PNC chief economist Gus Faucher.
“Even with this week’s decline, mortgage rates have increased more than a full percent over the last six months,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in the report.
“‘An extended war in Eastern Europe could lead to higher global energy prices and higher U.S. inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy aggressively.’”
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell one basis point over the past week to an average of 3.14%. The 5-year Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 2.98%, unchanged from the previous week.
The decline in mortgage rates roughly tracks movements in long-term bond yields. The 10-year Treasury note’s yield
TMUBMUSD10Y,
1.968%
has slid in recent days as tensions in Eastern Europe exploded into armed conflict.
“As the world reacts to developments in Ukraine, the uncertainty will likely mean a pause in the recent pace of increases,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.
But even with this momentary pause, mortgage rates remain significantly higher than in recent months. According to Hale, only two previous events compare with this recent surge in rates. Following the 2016 presidential election, mortgage rates soared 85 basis points over 10 weeks, and in 2013 during the “taper tantrum” when the Federal Reserve scaled back its stimulus activities interest rates increased by more than 1% over 11 weeks’ time.
“In both cases, home sales momentum slowed in the following year due to the impact on affordability, since rising rates mean higher homeownership costs even if home prices are unchanged,” Hale said, noting the effects were more pronounced for those who had less money to put toward a down payment.
It remains to be seen whether a similar string of events will occur in 2022, though signs point in that direction. Recent mortgage-application data from the Mortgage Bankers Association suggests that home-buying demand has ebbed in the face of rising rates.
Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan’s chief economist, told CNBC that the Russian invasion of the Ukraine makes the Federal Reserve’s position more complicated. “There is a scenario where the growth hit starts to get more substantial. There’s also scenarios where the price increases are not as damaging to growth and it’s feeding inflation.”
Jim Cramer’s playbook for investing during geopolitical uncertainty
CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Tuesday detailed his investment approach to navigating moments of geopolitical uncertainty, as conflict brews between Russia and Ukraine.
Concerns about Russia’s escalating aggression toward Ukraine have weighed on Wall Street in recent days, including Tuesday’s broad declines that saw the S&P 500 close in correction territory, which is defined as more than 10% below its most recent high.
“When you get a geopolitical-induced sell-off, you have new rules. You have to be ready to do some buying unless you think the event in question could be cataclysmic,” the “Mad Money” host said. “I don’t think it will be, and if there’s something that truly goes awry, or for heaven’s sake, if there is a nuclear war … I guarantee the last thing you’ll be worried about is your portfolio.”
Cramer said it’s hard to predict what Russian President Vladimir Putin will do next, after sending troops into breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine on Monday. It’s a horrible humanitarian situation, he stressed.
For investors, Cramer said it’s important to have predetermined price levels in mind for stocks. Then, if they fall to that point, investors can be ready to buy at the more attractive level, Cramer said.
Cramer pointed to Walmart, a stock his Charitable Trust owns, to illustrate his point. When the retail giant issued strong earnings and guidance last week, he said the stock was around $133 per share. It was lower Tuesday as part of the general weakness, but shares were still at roughly $136 apiece.
That price is “not low enough to lower our cost basis for the Trust. You always want to buy things cheaper so you can lower your basis. That’s good portfolio management,” Cramer said, explaining he believes it’s not worth being too aggressive given the significant uncertainty in the world.
“But you have to understand that you’re now getting a chance to buy some high-quality stocks well below their 52-week highs and at some levels that are genuinely cheap,” he said. “They could get even cheaper as the Ukraine situation unfolds.”
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Russia, China water down G20 text on geopolitical tensions
JAKARTA/WASHINGTON, Feb 18 (Reuters) – Russia and China watered down a G20 finance leaders’ statementon geopolitical risks to the global economy as a contentious meeting endedon Friday, deleting a reference to “current” tensions as financial markets fretted over the prospect of war in Ukraine.
The gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of 20 major economies was one of the most fractious since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, according to people familiar with the discussions.
Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland strayed from the G20 economic script to issue an impassioned plea to her Russian counterparts to not invade Ukraine, warning that such action would hurt the global economy and bring “crushing” sanctions against Russia, according to two sources familiar with her remarks. read more
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Other sources familiar with the meeting said China and Russia had objected to the reference to “current tensions” in an earlier draft communique, as well as disagreements on debt restructuring for poor countries and carbon pricing.
The group’s final communique simply said: “We will also continue to monitor major global risks, including from geopolitical tensions that are arising, and macroeconomic and financial vulnerabilities.”
As the meeting concluded, U.S. and European stocks fell on worries that a Russian invasion of Ukraine was imminent after Russian-backed separatists announced a surprise evacuation of their breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine. read more
DEBT RELIEF STANDSTILL
The G20 talks, held virtually and in the Indonesian capital, Jakarta, were also marked by disagreements over the group’s stalled debt restructuring framework.
The final communique failed to endorse International Monetary Fund and World Bank proposals for an immediate debt service suspension for poor countries that seek restructurings and an expansion to include some middle-income countries.
Instead, finance officials reiterated their “commitment to step up our efforts” to implement the framework in a “timely, orderly and coordinated manner” without any specifics.
Earlier, a source at the talks said China, by far the world’s largest bilateral creditor, had baulked at the idea of accepting outright haircuts on debt.
World Bank President David Malpass said at the Munich Security Conference after the finance meeting that he was concerned the G20 “is not identifying the steps forward” to deal with a massive and growing debt overhang in developing countries.
“The G20 discussions on debt were really disappointing,” said Eric LeCompte, executive director of the Jubilee USA Network, a faith-based organization campaigning for debt relief for poor countries. He said China was resisting steps to strengthen the bankruptcy-like G20 debt framework “so that they can cut deals on the side” with debtor countries.
CREDIBILITY QUESTIONS
Indonesia’s finance minister, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, said other sticking points involved the reticence of some countries to endorse carbon-pricing as a tool to tackle climate change and how to help low-income countries such as Chad, Zambia and Ethiopia struggling with debt burdens made yet more unsustainable during the coronavirus pandemic.
“This also concerns the reputation and credibility of the G20 as a group of countries with the biggest economies to help countries that are in an uneasy situation,” she said.
On other subjects, the final draft of the G20 text pledged to use “all available policy tools to address the impacts of the pandemic,” while warning that future policy space was likely to be “narrower and uneven.” read more
“Central banks will act where necessary to ensure price stability in line with their respective mandates, while remaining committed to clear communication of their policy stances.”
The diverging pace of recovery from the pandemic is complicating the policy path for central banks. Expected steady interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve have drawn attention to the potential fallout for emerging markets.
While cases of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 are receding in many wealthy countries, they are still rising in many developing nations including host country Indonesia.
The G20 text also pledged to ensure that a landmark deal last year setting a global minimum level of corporate tax could be put into force in 2023. [nL1N2UT0JV]
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Additional reporting by Fransiska Nangoy and Stefanno Sulaiman in Jakarta, Leika Kihara in Tokyo, Christian Kraemer in Berlin, Jan Strupczewski in Brussels, Leigh Thomas in Paris, David Lawder and Andrea Shalal in Washington; writing by David Lawder and Mark John; Editing by John Stonestreet, Toby Chopra and Leslie Adler
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.